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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .

    what on earth would a bad poll look like?
    I’m talking merely regarding the one point loss compared to the last poll.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Surely Theresa May must be thinking of calling a GE?

    Can't happen until Brexit, would be suicide to do it now and basically force no deal
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    IanB2 said:

    SunnyJim said:

    REAKING: Times/YouGov voter intention poll Con 38 Lab 26 *TIG 14* LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5 Other 11

    LOOOOOOOLLLLLLL

    The LD talking head on Skynews earlier said there was no chance of her party folding in to TIG.

    I have my doubts lol.
    There isn't much particularly liberal about the new party, although I am sure the LDs would have taken in Allen and probably Chuka and Wollaston.

    The better hope for the LibDems is that a one-election deal delivers PR and allows them a fuller role in politics nationwide thereafter.
    I agree with that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited February 2019

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    Yes, but the vision always ends with a paramedic called by some kindly person sedating him and taking him away to calm down.

    Edit - the whole point is (leaving aside the lack of a Peterborough by-election) they are not a party (yet) so will not be fielding candidates. They may endorse the Liberal Democrats but I doubt it.
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    The YouGov normal poll with Labour only down one is good considering the wall to wall coverage of the Labour resignations . Now that some Tories have jumped ship we best wait to see whether that effects things . But its clear Labour will be hit badly especially in urban areas if they don’t support a second vote .

    what on earth would a bad poll look like?
    I’m talking merely regarding the one point loss compared to the last poll.
    yeah, its really good for Labour, really good.

    jesus.
    h.
    corbett.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    They won't stand. Why would they?
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    Two labour wins, no mention of a 2nd ref in any campaign..
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TIG website right now:

    "The Independent Group. We will be back shortly after some planned maintenance"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Richard Harrington sitting on the government benches. Rumours of his defection were obviously exaggerated.

    After the next iteration of the meaningful vote, I think, unless things change. He's very loyal, a real party man and has been a supporter of Theresa May, but he won't remain in a government taking us to a crash-out no-deal.
    Interesting.
  • Rather different response to the Tory resignations from some to the Labour ones:

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1098194499430502407
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    _Anazina_ said:

    Danny565 said:

    Most telling thing is TIG would apparently take 11% of the Leave vote (compared to 18% of the Remain vote).

    Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.

    You really are rattled by the Tiggers aren't you?
    Possibly; they're doing better than I would've expected. But I would still say the fact that so many Leave voters say they'd vote for them supports the idea this is people just projecting whatever they personally would want onto a "new party", rather than something substantial that would withstand an election campaign.

    I totally accept that my predictions could well be just wishful thinking, though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Close.

    The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

    There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Rather different response to the Tory resignations from some to the Labour ones:

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1098194499430502407

    Has any of the ERG responded yet?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Just spotted a Labour MP with a yellow star !
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    ydoethur said:

    A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Close.

    The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

    There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.
    What does "fixed" mean in this context?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    ydoethur said:

    A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Close.

    The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

    There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.
    The person charged over calling Soubry a Nazi says he's a Tory voter. There's plenty of nastiness.
  • Time for me to go exercise. Will the Tigger Party be enlarged by the time I return?

    We shall see.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
  • IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    TIG cathartic, overdue and a distraction from the ticking clock.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TGOHF said:

    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
    In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    Mandy pounded them in Hartlepool!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    Falklands War?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Can't happen until Brexit, would be suicide to do it now and basically force no deal

    I would think an article 50 extension would be granted for a general election.
  • IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    Foot wanting to pull out of the EEC.
  • TIG website right now:

    "The Independent Group. We will be back shortly after some planned maintenance"

    Up for me. I'd imagine the site is overloaded again after the Tory defections (which are not actually to TiG aiui). There is a five second Cloudflare DDoS protection screen to sit through, which is interesting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    Falklands War?
    Didn't that turn out well?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    The 3 Tory defectors already sitting with their ex Labour colleagues in the Commons as the anti Brexit faction they comprise is now the joint third biggest grouping from England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the Commons on a clear anti Brexit ticket
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Close.

    The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

    There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.
    What does "fixed" mean in this context?
    Once we've all stopped having a nervous breakdown over whether it's Brexit 1, Brexit 1.1 or Brexit 1.2 we should go for?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
    In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG
    or medium, long ,very long.

    Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

    Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Close.

    The key thing is they have left over policy. This is likely to be a temporary problem and it's not out of the question they might return should it be fixed.

    There isn't the nasty personal element we see with Labour, or the takeover of the party by the nutters (yet!) which makes it impossible to see any Labour Tiggers rejoining.
    The person charged over calling Soubry a Nazi says he's a Tory voter. There's plenty of nastiness.
    Was the voter in question Theresa May or Phillip Hammond? If not your parallel fails.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    Rather different response to the Tory resignations from some to the Labour ones:

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1098194499430502407

    Of course plenty of SDP advisers ended up joining Major's Tories and Blair's New Labour once the main parties shifted back to the centre again after the polarisation of Thatcher and Foot and the Militant Tendency
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    _Anazina_ said:

    Danny565 said:

    Most telling thing is TIG would apparently take 11% of the Leave vote (compared to 18% of the Remain vote).

    Hands up who thinks that would withstand an election campaign where they're banging on about Brexit nonstop.

    You really are rattled by the Tiggers aren't you?
    Labour should be very worried tbh.

    Evidence so far suggests this development is much worse news for Labour than the Tories. And the ex-Labour MPs seem to care more about stopping Corbyn than stopping Brexit.

    Yes they'll probably get wiped out at the next GE, but in the meantime they will have handed the Tories another victory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
    In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG
    or medium, long ,very long.

    Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

    Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.
    When are you changing your name to the Ghost of General Melchett? :smile:
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    I wonder if TM might be off for some walks in Wales soon .....

    Seriously for a moment: if there are more defections to TIG, Labour in disarray, polls look good, and still no solution for Brexit, it could be the lifebelt they go for.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Just out from Tigers' putative leader:

    I’ve got no intention of quitting & am focused on stopping No Deal & backing @peterkyle @MPphilwilson amendment. But defectors from both sides know many people feel politically homeless & hate bullying & ideological intolerance. Whichever Party acts on this will win next election
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Andrew said:

    I wonder if TM might be off for some walks in Wales soon .....

    Seriously for a moment: if there are more defections to TIG, Labour in disarray, polls look good, and still no solution for Brexit, it could be the lifebelt they go for.

    My inner Brenda has just downed five pints of best scrumpy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone explain how this 'Independent Group' are going to come up with domestic policies that appeal to Labour voters, when one of their members has spent the last 9 years being one of the main cheerleaders for austerity (Soubry)?

    If you are anti austerity you are voting Corbyn Labour.

    It is New Labour anti Brexit centrists and Tory Remainers the Independent Group are targeting
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited February 2019


    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?


    The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?
    Soubry's election literature explicitly stated she accepted Brexit and would respect the referendum result.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,603
    Doesn't this absolutely suit Corbyn's team down to the ground? Unencumbered by the need for a coherent programme of government but with the brand inertia of "Labour" they will remain a force in politics for a generation, shedding any nay-saying voices with impunity.
  • IanB2 said:

    Just out from Tigers' putative leader:

    I’ve got no intention of quitting & am focused on stopping No Deal & backing @peterkyle @MPphilwilson amendment. But defectors from both sides know many people feel politically homeless & hate bullying & ideological intolerance. Whichever Party acts on this will win next election

    Interesting. The last sentence is exactly right, or at least it would be right if it didn't look as though neither party will come back to its senses.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    blueblue said:

    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

    If the next GE is in 2022, they could certainly field a lot of candidates by then. And potentially direct people who want to vote for them to vote LD in other constituencies.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
    In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG
    or medium, long ,very long.

    Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

    Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.
    When are you changing your name to the Ghost of General Melchett? :smile:

    Kippers Reckless and Carswell resigned as MPs and triggered by-elections.

    Come on, TIG! Put your parliamentary money where your mouths are!

    The no bye elections but a 2nd referendum line is going to be a tough one to defend.

  • Andrew said:


    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?


    The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.
    And Soubry has voted against the Deal.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    blueblue said:

    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

    I'm guessing they'll try and recruit people in a similar manner to En Marche when they had to find a number of candidates for the French Parliament elections shortly after Macron won the Presidency.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    Falklands War?
    Didn't that turn out well?
    He probably meant it from the Argentinean perspective.
  • I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    test
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?
    Soubry's election literature explicitly stated she accepted Brexit and would respect the referendum result.
    I respect the vote of my MP being elected, but that doesn't mean I'd be happy about him throwing me off a cliff.
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?
    Soubry's election literature explicitly stated she accepted Brexit and would respect the referendum result.
    With support from Lib Dem leavers!


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    I think it is overdoing it. It isn't like JRM has joined the Tiggers. Two of the three MPs who have left the Tories were fans of Cameron's direction for the Tory party, which wasn't a million miles away from New Labour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    What does this mean for next Con leader? Loss of 3 votes out of 317, surely increases the chances of ERG getting a candidate into the final 2.
    And from there would be a heavy favourite.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    blueblue said:

    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

    If the next GE is in 2022, they could certainly field a lot of candidates by then. And potentially direct people who want to vote for them to vote LD in other constituencies.
    Sure, but the Government's working majority is down to single digits and dependent on an unreliable partner, while the final Brexit crisis hasn't even happened yet. An election much sooner than 2022 looks increasingly likely.
  • I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
  • The European Medicines Agency, which is moving from Britain to Amsterdam owing to Brexit, on Wednesday lost a court battle to cancel the lease on its London headquarters.

    Well there's a surprise.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/20/sainsburysasda-merger-in-doubt-amid-price-rise-concerns-business-live
  • A difference between the Labour & Tory resignations:

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1098188604571045893

    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?
    Soubry's election literature explicitly stated she accepted Brexit and would respect the referendum result.
    I respect the vote of my MP being elected, but that doesn't mean I'd be happy about him throwing me off a cliff.
    And yet she voted against the option that would prevent that. There are no good ways of looking at Soubry's actions right now in terms of respecting what she campaigned on at the GE.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    An incredible notion Richard ;-)
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited February 2019
    Andrew said:

    I wonder if TM might be off for some walks in Wales soon .....

    Seriously for a moment: if there are more defections to TIG, Labour in disarray, polls look good, and still no solution for Brexit, it could be the lifebelt they go for.

    Massive, massive, massive gamble.

    Politics is in flux, and May herself famously isn't good on the unpredictability of an election campaign. Some possibilities:

    1. TIG put up a sizeable slate of candidates working with the Lib Dems, and have the momentum as the new thing. It'll be tough, but in a febrile atmosphere, they could just do what the Alliance didn't, and achieve critical mass.

    2. Labour people rally around. TIG bite into Tories more than Labour by providing an alternative anti-Corbyn vote which is more palatable to moderates who are appalled by both the ERG and Corbyn/Momentum.

    3. ERG go full "party within a party" and simply say "we don't care what the manifesto says... we're your 'no deal', hard Brexit candidates in a couple of hundred seats". Can she deselect them all at short notice? Probably not.

    Just can't see her risking it after the 2017 fiasco.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

    The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    RH1992 said:

    blueblue said:

    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

    I'm guessing they'll try and recruit people in a similar manner to En Marche when they had to find a number of candidates for the French Parliament elections shortly after Macron won the Presidency.
    With the Lib Dems as MoDem.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    nico67 said:

    The YouGov poll puts a lot of pressure on Labour to support a second vote .

    I think this is far from unthinkable. Especially if there were to be a snap pre-Brexit GE.

    A pivot to REF2 in those circumstances would mean that the ONLY way to get Remain would be via a Labour government. That could be a powerful proposition and it could be how they (both Labour and remainers) win.
  • I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736
    An Ian Dunt tweet without a four-letter word in it? That's very suspicious.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Andrew said:


    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?


    The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.
    And Soubry has voted against the Deal.
    As have Allen and Wollaston. All three are opposed to any type of Brexit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

  • blueblue said:

    Er, pardon me for being dense, but what on earth is the value of UK-wide polling on TIG when by definition they exist only in the seats they currently hold?

    Are they planning to field hundreds of candidates across the UK? How long will it take them to be selected? On what criteria?

    Much as I would like Labour to be crushed, I don't think the result of a GE in the short to medium term would be any different than what the pre-TIG polling indicated.

    Well, it's definitely an interesting data point, not least because it helps you guess how things would look if they expanded to be a proper party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    If - as rumoured - they have had American political consultants as advisors and have been doing a lot of constituency level polling, this suggests rather more planning than we can see above the surface right now.

    The word seems to be that another batch of Labour defectors will be along next Monday or Tuesday.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    Great response, I love how you logically took his argument apart point-by-point
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Massive, massive, massive gamble.

    *snip good points*

    Indeed. But if the alternative is crash brexit, nasty recession, government possibly falls and Corbyn gets in ....... maybe a gamble is needed.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    Agreed.
    Creating a new entity solely dedicated providing a harbour for disaffected Labour MPs would be doomed to certain failure, as opposed to a brave gamble to recast the political landscape.

    And the thesis that it takes the pressure off Corbyn is wrong in of itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    Wrong. However much you wish it were true.
    You don't think adding in some huffing single issue remoaners muddies the waters of the stop Corbyn coalition ?

    Apart from Brexit - which could be put to bed in a month - what do these groups have in common other than "common purpose" and a dislike of bye elections ?

    Whether it happens with a deal, without a deal, or doesn't happen, Brexit will overshadow our politics for years to come. Lol @ "put to bed in a month" !!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:


    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?


    The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.
    And Soubry has voted against the Deal.
    As have Allen and Wollaston. All three are opposed to any type of Brexit.
    Anne Marie Morris also seems implacably opposed to any type of Brexit parliament might pass !
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Andrew said:


    Massive, massive, massive gamble.

    *snip good points*

    Indeed. But if the alternative is crash brexit, nasty recession, government possibly falls and Corbyn gets in ....... maybe a gamble is needed.


    Why would the government fall?
  • Oscars -- the Racing Post's preview lasts 7 minutes, and does not like the 1/4 jolly, Roma.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vadTXJJtyhU

    No true pb-er will bet until Roger's tipped us the wink.
  • Andrew said:

    I wonder if TM might be off for some walks in Wales soon .....

    Seriously for a moment: if there are more defections to TIG, Labour in disarray, polls look good, and still no solution for Brexit, it could be the lifebelt they go for.

    Massive, massive, massive gamble.

    Politics is in flux, and May herself famously isn't good on the unpredictability of an election campaign. Some possibilities:

    1. TIG put up a sizeable slate of candidates working with the Lib Dems, and have the momentum as the new thing. It'll be tough, but in a febrile atmosphere, they could just do what the Alliance didn't, and achieve critical mass.

    2. Labour people rally around. TIG bite into Tories more than Labour by providing an alternative anti-Corbyn vote which is more palatable to moderates who are appalled by both the ERG and Corbyn/Momentum.

    3. ERG go full "party within a party" and simply say "we don't care what the manifesto says... we're your 'no deal', hard Brexit candidates in a couple of hundred seats". Can she deselect them all at short notice? Probably not.

    Just can't see her risking it after the 2017 fiasco.
    Massive, massive gamble, but her political shelf life is measured in months at the moment in any case. She should do it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    Mandy pounded them in Hartlepool!
    Fortified with plentiful supplies of guacamole provided by the local fish and chip shops :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:


    Was a No Deal Brexit in the Tory manifesto?


    The government has voted for a deal. It's the Labour/ERG coalition who are voting for no deal.
    And Soubry has voted against the Deal.
    As have Allen and Wollaston. All three are opposed to any type of Brexit.
    Anne Marie Morris also seems implacably opposed to any type of Brexit parliament might pass !
    But she’s thick as mince.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brom said:

    A lot can change in politics but surely the Tories will lead every poll for the next few weeks now.

    Nah - loads of Con voters are going to switch to TIG to follow the wet witches of the East.
    In the short term I'd be very surprised if there were more Con -> TIG switchers than Lab -> TIG
    or medium, long ,very long.

    Labour TIGgers are brave refugees fleeing the jackboot of Corbynism.

    Tory Tiggers are flouncing about the EU gravy train no longer stopping at their station.
    Hmmm.

    Nothing changes. Hasn't it always been the case the defections from other parties are brave and principled, and those from one's own party are cynical and self-serving?

    Maybe the more objective position is that defectors are almost always a bit of both.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 100
    Soubry has become the second marginal seat holder (after Angela Smith) to join the Group.
  • Andrew said:


    Massive, massive, massive gamble.

    *snip good points*

    Indeed. But if the alternative is crash brexit, nasty recession, government possibly falls and Corbyn gets in ....... maybe a gamble is needed.


    That's where a referendum comes in, which gives some form of Brexit or anti-Brexit a majority (and helpfully, from the PM's point of view, solidifies TIG as a clear Remain voice), without risking both the government (or at least, no more than necessary during the Bill's passage), or a so-called 'Brexit' election being 'contaminated' with domestic, social and economic policies.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Another witless call for a by-election this time from a Tory.

    https://twitter.com/Hannahjourno/status/1098204587071283200

    One politics lecturer had helpfully pointed out that there were only 4 by-elections triggered by MPs crossing the political divide. Mark Reckless was the last one.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    IanB2 said:

    Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.

    Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.

    I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.

    Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?

    SDP fought P'boro in 1983 and got 23% from a previous Liberal 10%
    What was the direct equivalent of Brexit back in '83?
    IIRC the Labour Party stood under a manifesto in 83 that explicitly advocated leaving the EEC. Google "the longest suicide note in history".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    I remember when what we called excitement and rumour was which politician would be the next to decide to get their lunch in Greggs for a photo-op.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    "Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology" - this is in the Lib Dems policy statement too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA using today's YouGov. (I'm ignoring TIG polls for the moment as hard to interpret.)

    Con 39.0% Lab 36.4% LD 9.6%

    Con 317
    Lab 254
    LD 17
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    Con 9 short of overall majority (very similar to now)
    Con+DUP 327
    Lab+others 315

    Which will she choose - an early GE on her deal, or her deal with referendum on it? I think the former.

    Yes - I think the GE is coming unless the deal surprises by sailing through. And perhaps even then as a consolidation play.

    BIG move in that direction on betfair too. GE in 2019 much shorter now than it was a couple of days ago.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://capx.co/no-definition-no-soul-no-purpose-what-is-the-point-of-the-independent-group/

    "Adding three Tories to the group muddies this message and carries considerable risks for the new venture. I wonder if it is too much, too soon. At the very least, it prises attention away from the crisis unleashed upon the Labour party by the Eight’s defection. It gives swithering Labour MPs – for there are many who secretly and sometimes less than secretly agree with the defectors’ views on Corbyn – an excuse to cancel their appointments with their consciences. Plenty of Labour MPs could imagine themselves joining an explicitly anti-Corbyn group; the bar for joining what now effectively becomes a new political party is much higher."

    It always was going to be a new party, if it gathered speed. What could be more anti-Corbyn than that?

    The desire is for something new in politics and for a different sort of politics. Looking (only) like a load of Labour retreads was a handicap, not an advantage.
    Spot on. If Tig had failed to attract Tories, Flashman and his hard-right brethren would be falling over themselves to tell us that it was a failed project because... it had failed to attract Tories.

    Looks very well orchestrated so far and has attracted several intelligent, switched on people from both sides of the House.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

    Pause.

    Thinks.

    Do you know, that's a bloody good question. Well done you. I have no idea... :(
This discussion has been closed.