Anna doubling down on the righteousness of austerity.
Wonder whether it would have been better for these ex-Con members to have formed their own independent group (at least for now) ?
If you just think about it beyond Brexit the inherent contradictions between Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes already makes the whole thing seem a tad absurd...
The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.
Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?
Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.
No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.
That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.
Let's be honest, you would only be satisfied if they were to adopt tactics of deliberate self-sabotage.
If they all won by-elections I'd hold my hand up and say this was a credible party that might hold the balance of power. But it's easy to see why they look rather frit at this moment.
Don't underestimate that they seem to be thrilling almost universally the entire metro-media luvvie set.
It's Cleggasm II - with frilly Remain knickers.
No hard questions from the media, TIG are the party run by the media for the media. I'm certain they'll be making huge waves outside the M25 with their own unique brand of hypocrisy.
They'll shortly have an opportunity to test themselves in the Newport West by-election.
I wonder when the writ will be moved for that one, from memory the protocol is that they wait until after the funeral. If I were a betting man (ahem!) I’d think it probably happens on 2nd May now, alongside the local elections.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
Tory polling holds up unless May caves (To the remain side) on Brexit. But she might have to to avoid "No deal", so that's a problem heading down the tracks as the 29th March approaches.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.
Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?
Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.
No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.
That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.
Let's be honest, you would only be satisfied if they were to adopt tactics of deliberate self-sabotage.
If they all won by-elections I'd hold my hand up and say this was a credible party that might hold the balance of power. But it's easy to see why they look rather frit at this moment.
Don't underestimate that they seem to be thrilling almost universally the entire metro-media luvvie set.
It's Cleggasm II - with frilly Remain knickers.
No hard questions from the media, TIG are the party run by the media for the media. I'm certain they'll be making huge waves outside the M25 with their own unique brand of hypocrisy.
Wow. The media conspiracy paranoia bile spouts up after just two and a half days.
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.
But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.
I do think it's fair to say that a lot of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological. The reason he has not already stepped down from a job he clearly hates is that there is no obvious successor from his wing of the party.
Have you joined, yet, SO? Surely you must tell us that you have.
I have registered interest. I am definitely open to persuasion, but not committed.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
@MikeSegalov 17h17 hours ago More not gonna repeat or share the libellous and deeply offensive comments made by a certain "author" when I was on ITV with him yesterday, but needless to say I'm seeking advice x
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up. How you class working class, that depends.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.
This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie
Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?
In fairness to him, Anazina and any potential other 'bots' that have recently joined you yourself Ian have racked up 14,000 posts which is not far off Scott P levels of tragic. I believe anyone should be free to join and post if they keep things on topic.
She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...
Brexit is fucked.
She is a hypocritical liar.
Clearly has you rattled, Richard.
Yep. As I said this week, we could be seeing the start of the death of Brexit.
If the betting websites are to be believed looks like quite the opposite. If the main opposition to Brexit within the Tory party leave then there is far less pressure on May for a 2nd referendum.
This is true, but so far only three have left. TMay gets to decide whether to try to plug the leak.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.
This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie
Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?
Well I only get going when its really kicking off!
The interesting thing about both press conferences has been the body language - you can see the relief and sense of liberation written across the MPs' faces, particularly I think the women's. I think that tells you something about how toxic the culture in both parties has become. A lot of politics is about the personal, and for me that suggests strongly that this is only the beginning. I would expect Brexit and the Labour Party to be the major casualties.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up.
Money Makeover: how £132,000-a-year Jeremy Corbyn can cut his tax bill
With a total income of £132,611 a year, Mr Corbyn earns more than 99pc of British taxpayers. Presumably under a Labour government he would seek to address this wealth inequality.
@MikeSegalov 17h17 hours ago More not gonna repeat or share the libellous and deeply offensive comments made by a certain "author" when I was on ITV with him yesterday, but needless to say I'm seeking advice x
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
If it happens, your option (1) would be at least 15 years off. It took 16 years between 1981 and 1997 to get Labour back into government and that was in a scenario where the far left was vanquished very quickly by Kinnock. In contrast to the early 80s, the extreme left is entrenched and deepening its control and the hill to climb is steeper. The choice between that and the much more likely prospect of a Corbynite death grip will I think prompt many more Labour MPs to opt for 3. They were prepared to go along with a government of the political centre then.
Anyway, I based my comments on Watson's extraordinary interview which is entirely consistent with someone considering his political future but making a last plea for the Corbyn camp to see sense, which they won't. I genuinely think he is contemplating jumping ship.
How about a different approach. 2nd referendum and GE on the same day (set for 6 months or so)?
That could be more appealing for TM
That is something I have not contemplated at all. 2 immediate thoughts -
- it would involve a GE campaign lasting 6 months. - the Cons would not let TM fight it because they would have the time to replace her.
The referendum settles the Brexit issue. TM has carried out her pledge to see it through. Six months is a great timescale for a new Tory leader to bed in.
She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...
Brexit is fucked.
She is a hypocritical liar.
Clearly has you rattled, Richard.
Yep. As I said this week, we could be seeing the start of the death of Brexit.
If the betting websites are to be believed looks like quite the opposite. If the main opposition to Brexit within the Tory party leave then there is far less pressure on May for a 2nd referendum.
This is true, but so far only three have left. TMay gets to decide whether to try to plug the leak.
Looking at who has ruled out joining and who has voted against the government it would be hard to see double figures. Lee, Boles, Djangoly, Morgan, Greening, Grieve, Sandbach. Not sure if more than 5 or 6 Tories would depart in even no deal circumstances.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up.
Oh thank god for that
As long as the Winchester Academy for the well off is doing ok out of it.
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.
But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.
The next Labour leader would have to be reliably left-wing on economic issues, but I don't see why that means they would have to be a scumbag.
I like to think I'm pretty lefty and not a scumbag. There must be a few Labour MPs that fit that description too.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
There hasn't been a poll since any Tories joined. Wait and see time.
The bedrock of the Tory party has always been educated middle-class business-oriented people, who thought the economy safe in their hands. The impact of the party's zealots putting two fingers up to this constituency may take some years to play out.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
When McDonnell said there needed to be a mammoth listening exercise, he knew full well that mammoths were extinct. So there was never going to be one to listen to.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
Firstly, that doesn't really reflect the first year after the formation of the SDP, where the new party did gain more from Labour but the ratio was only around 2:1.
Secondly, the first polls came before the Tory defections, when it was purely a Labour splinter group, so it seems a bit early to judge. I suspect they won't make huge strides with the Tory vote, but I'd not bet too much on that view.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.
This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie
Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?
In fairness to him, Anazina and any potential other 'bots' that have recently joined you yourself Ian have racked up 14,000 posts which is not far off Scott P levels of tragic. I believe anyone should be free to join and post if they keep things on topic.
Absolutely, newbies always welcome. We just need to be a bit more wary about those that appear out of the blue when there are clearly axes to grind.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up.
Oh thank god for that
As long as the Winchester Academy for the well off is doing ok out of it.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
There hasn't been a poll since any Tories joined. Wait and see time.
The bedrock of the Tory party has always been educated middle-class business-oriented people, who thought the economy safe in their hands. The impact of the party's zealots putting two fingers up to this constituency may take some years to play out.
This is what I think. Fringe figures such as Wollaston and Allen are not popular amongst Tory voters. I suspect the impact of them leaving will be significantly less than the impact the other 8 leaving have had on Labour. Pragmatic business minded educated people will still see the Tories as their obvious home while May is leader.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Deficit up ?
The number of young homeowners is now rising.
Only because Winter Flu killed off all the old ones.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.
This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie
Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?
Well I only get going when its really kicking off!
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
There hasn't been a poll since any Tories joined. Wait and see time.
The bedrock of the Tory party has always been educated middle-class business-oriented people, who thought the economy safe in their hands. The impact of the party's zealots putting two fingers up to this constituency may take some years to play out.
This is what I think. Fringe figures such as Wollaston and Allen are not popular amongst Tory voters. I suspect the impact of them leaving will be significantly less than the impact the other 8 leaving have had on Labour. Pragmatic business minded educated people will still see the Tories as their obvious home while May is leader.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up.
Oh thank god for that
As long as the Winchester Academy for the well off is doing ok out of it.
What is this Winchester Academy you speak of?
No offence intended to any Winchester based educational institutions. Young and disadvantaged continue to be disadvantaged. The inability of the opposition to provide a remedy is more frustrating than the fact it happened in the first place. Probably symptomatic of far left ideologies overwriting the needs of everyday people.
@MikeSegalov 17h17 hours ago More not gonna repeat or share the libellous and deeply offensive comments made by a certain "author" when I was on ITV with him yesterday, but needless to say I'm seeking advice x
Who is he, and who might have upset him?
The Author of the recent Corbyn book yesterday on live TV
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
And we overlook the human angle at our peril. The risk for a lot of ambitious younger Labour MPs is now that they'll be a lot older by the time Labour recovers from this body blow.
Which would explain why Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed jumped ship and a few who stood down in 2017.
And why I think Streeting will jump, despite what he is saying now. He's led the campaign against anti-semitism within Labour, and has just lost a load of his allies.
This is not about giving "us" a bad name. It's about due process and the law. I obtained British nationality through naturalisation (I was born in Sri Lanka though my parents arrived in the UK when I was a toddler).
Am I second class citizen? - are all second generation migrants second class citizens? Is Sajid Javid himself a second class citizen (sometimes he needs to remind himself and look into the mirror of what he actually is!).
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
And we overlook the human angle at our peril. The risk for a lot of ambitious younger Labour MPs is now that they'll be a lot older by the time Labour recovers from this body blow.
Which would explain why Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed jumped ship and a few who stood down in 2017.
And why I think Streeting will jump, despite what he is saying now. He's led the campaign against anti-semitism within Labour, and has just lost a load of his allies.
Ilford to be a one-party TIG state?
The thing to remember about Ilford is that Mike Gapes thought his seat (Ilford South) would disappear under Cameron's gerrymander reduction to 600 seats, and Wes Streeting (North) didn't.
Fortunately, we one (or two) by-elections in the offing.
Leaver-stan Newport West and Peterborough. Unpromising Tigger territory.
I don't even think -- in these two forthcoming real tests -- the Tiggers will even save their deposits.
Can you imagine Chuka pounding the streets of Peterborough?
Why not? I recall seeing Roy Jenkins pounding the streets of Hillhead and Crosby. You have to do what you have to do if you are serious about politics and Chuka looks to me like someone who takes himself very seriously indeed.
@MikeSegalov 17h17 hours ago More not gonna repeat or share the libellous and deeply offensive comments made by a certain "author" when I was on ITV with him yesterday, but needless to say I'm seeking advice x
Who is he, and who might have upset him?
The Author of the recent Corbyn book yesterday on live TV
Called him a self hating Jew
Ah okay, that doesn’t seem the best thing to say in a live interview.
The danger of sending a moderate to lean on a potential defector is that they might end up with two defectors...
They need to adopt the East German guard theory, making them patrol in threes. One by himself might just defect. With two, one might shoot the other and then defect. With three, each is being watched by two.
Brexit has smashed the structure of old politics to smithereens. Politicians can’t just hide behind old party structures, they have to define what they are all about.. eventually it had to lead to a party for those who wanted everything to stay as it was, and now they have it.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
The European Medicines Agency, which is moving from Britain to Amsterdam owing to Brexit, on Wednesday lost a court battle to cancel the lease on its London headquarters.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
There hasn't been a poll since any Tories joined. Wait and see time.
The bedrock of the Tory party has always been educated middle-class business-oriented people, who thought the economy safe in their hands. The impact of the party's zealots putting two fingers up to this constituency may take some years to play out.
There's certainly a big opening for a centrist pro-EU party. I could easily see something like Con 34%, TIG/Lib Dems 25%, Lab 28%, in polls to come.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.
This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie
Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?
Well I only get going when its really kicking off!
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
It would have passed without a general election. Thatcher would then have won a majority in 1984, though not the landslide she did, off the back of falling inflation, falling interest rates and renewed growth in the economy.
The Alliance had already passed their peak when the Falklands were invaded, and would likely have declined further.
However, the fly in the ointment might have been that Benn might have survived in Bristol East. had he done so, he might well have won the subsequent leadership election after Foot stood down.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
The odd thing is that on the BBC's 1983 election show, the Falklands was only mentioned once on the entire 12 hour show, (by David Owen while he was waiting for his Plymouth Devonport result).
This is not about giving "us" a bad name. It's about due process and the law. I obtained British nationality through naturalisation (I was born in Sri Lanka though my parents arrived in the UK when I was a toddler).
Am I second class citizen? - are all second generation migrants second class citizens? Is Sajid Javid himself a second class citizen (sometimes he needs to remind himself and look into the mirror of what he actually is!).
Her baby could get freedom of movement rights across Europe though due to his Dutch father, which someone of sole British, and no other potential nationality would not receive; so the question of nationalities and what rights you're entitled to etc has swings and roundabouts both ways.
There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.
Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.
1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.
2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.
3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.
Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.
I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.
If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.
But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.
The next Labour leader would have to be reliably left-wing on economic issues, but I don't see why that means they would have to be a scumbag.
I like to think I'm pretty lefty and not a scumbag. There must be a few Labour MPs that fit that description too.
The leader themselves won't necessarily be a scumbag (but might be) but if they are of the far left, which I think is likely, then they'll come along with scumbag supporters, whether they like it or not.
The danger of sending a moderate to lean on a potential defector is that they might end up with two defectors...
They need to adopt the East German guard theory, making them patrol in threes. One by himself might just defect. With two, one might shoot the other and then defect. With three, each is being watched by two.
East German border guards were also selected for being a bit dim, lacking in initiative and blindly following orders.
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.
Although fuck knows what their manifesto looks like. "We will, at all times, Do The Right Thing.... Er, that's it."
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.
"The emergence of The Independent Group impacts Labour the most, although more because of the number of voters it pushes into "Don't Know" than the number it takes for itself."
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.
That has already largely occurred in the wake of Brexit. It's not generally seen to have been a positive development so far.
Is Corbyn going to completely screw his own Party???...... The accidentally overheard off mike comment by an (assumed to be Labour MP) that "We are completely fucked" seems about right.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.
Bit more difficult today with RAF mount pleasant etc. Argentina has f all military capability
This is not about giving "us" a bad name. It's about due process and the law. I obtained British nationality through naturalisation (I was born in Sri Lanka though my parents arrived in the UK when I was a toddler).
Am I second class citizen? - are all second generation migrants second class citizens? Is Sajid Javid himself a second class citizen (sometimes he needs to remind himself and look into the mirror of what he actually is!).
Her baby could get freedom of movement rights across Europe though due to his Dutch father, which someone of sole British, and no other potential nationality would not receive; so the question of nationalities and what rights you're entitled to etc has swings and roundabouts both ways.
Waiting for Diane Abbott to say the problem with Javid’s precedent is what would happen when her mob get in!
Is Corbyn going to completely screw his own Party.. The accidentally overheard off mike comment by an (assumed to be Labour MP) that "we are completely fucked" seems about right.
Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.
"The emergence of The Independent Group impacts Labour the most, although more because of the number of voters it pushes into "Don't Know" than the number it takes for itself."
It is very early days yet
Exactly. It took the SDP ten months from launch to top the polls.
The danger of sending a moderate to lean on a potential defector is that they might end up with two defectors...
They need to adopt the East German guard theory, making them patrol in threes. One by himself might just defect. With two, one might shoot the other and then defect. With three, each is being watched by two.
East German border guards were also selected for being a bit dim, lacking in initiative and blindly following orders.
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.
Although fuck knows what their manifesto looks like. "We will, at all times, Do The Right Thing.... Er, that's it."
But it's a start, in a world where so many politicians are dead set on doing the wrong thing.
Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record
Heidi Allen has joined today.
Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.
Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.
And she’s the one that’s had enough?
Quite agree with this.
Same with Soubry.
These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.
Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?
Austerity seems to have been a fairly big success. Adult poverty down, child poverty down, pensioner poverty down, unemployment lowest since 1970, employment highest since same.
Working class students accepted to Oxbridge down, number of young homeowners down, national debt up, deficit up. You really are the reason the main parties are collapsing.
Errrh deficit is down....Also your Oxbridge claim isn't true either, it is what are classed as "disadvantaged pupils" that is slightly down, state school entrants are up.
Oh thank god for that
As long as the Winchester Academy for the well off is doing ok out of it.
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.
That has already largely occurred in the wake of Brexit. It's not generally seen to have been a positive development so far.
And how on earth could you operate a Government on that basis? Look at the trouble May is having already....
Away from Brexit, is anyone else laying Kamala Harris for the Dem nomination now ?
Kamala Harris is 3/1 generally which implies a 25 per cent chance of her winning the Democrat nomination. It is not so obviously absurd that I'd be rushing to lay her at the price, but I've not done the work to price up the whole field.
i) There's a tonne of candidates ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
The first polls would seem to indicate another 1983 situation, with the Tories only losing a small amount of support to the new grouping.
In terms of historic parallels, we are at the January 1981 stage, i.e. The equivalent of the Council for Social Democracy was launched 2 days ago. Without General Galteiri in 1982, how would 1983 have played out?
You are assuming Argentina won't try to take advantage of UK divisions to grab the Falklands.
Bit more difficult today with RAF mount pleasant etc. Argentina has f all military capability
Whether we could defend Gibraltar against a hypothetical Spanish invasion is a more open question, once Gavin Williamson's finished with China.
Subsample klaxon! - In the YouGov TIG is on 18% with Remain voters and 11% with Leave voters. Labour 37-12, so that makes TIG support less polarised by Remain support than Labour's.
If that were to last it would certainly represent a change in politics.
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If you just think about it beyond Brexit the inherent contradictions between Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes already makes the whole thing seem a tad absurd...
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@MikeSegalov
17h17 hours ago
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not gonna repeat or share the libellous and deeply offensive comments made by a certain "author" when I was on ITV with him yesterday, but needless to say I'm seeking advice x
Today seems bigger to me , than the other day , maybe because this could split both the main parties.
Money Makeover: how £132,000-a-year Jeremy Corbyn can cut his tax bill
With a total income of £132,611 a year, Mr Corbyn earns more than 99pc of British taxpayers. Presumably under a Labour government he would seek to address this wealth inequality.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/money-makeover-132000-a-year-jeremy-corbyn-can-cut-tax-bill/
Anyway, I based my comments on Watson's extraordinary interview which is entirely consistent with someone considering his political future but making a last plea for the Corbyn camp to see sense, which they won't. I genuinely think he is contemplating jumping ship.
TM has carried out her pledge to see it through.
Six months is a great timescale for a new Tory leader to bed in.
I like to think I'm pretty lefty and not a scumbag. There must be a few Labour MPs that fit that description too.
Secondly, the first polls came before the Tory defections, when it was purely a Labour splinter group, so it seems a bit early to judge. I suspect they won't make huge strides with the Tory vote, but I'd not bet too much on that view.
Called him a self hating Jew
Lock her up!
ok only joking
Am I second class citizen? - are all second generation migrants second class citizens? Is Sajid Javid himself a second class citizen (sometimes he needs to remind himself and look into the mirror of what he actually is!).
Made on a 50p budget but with the added attraction of the real Batman
I suggest the party be named ‘Le Bourgeois’!
MULTIMILLION pound port terminal, Tilbury2, has been approved today with construction scheduled to start within a matter of weeks.
https://www.harwichandmanningtreestandard.co.uk/news/17446286.tilbury-port-to-expand-creating-8500-jobs-in-thurrock-and-essex/
If they can come together on a platform now, then that should be what matters.
The Alliance had already passed their peak when the Falklands were invaded, and would likely have declined further.
However, the fly in the ointment might have been that Benn might have survived in Bristol East. had he done so, he might well have won the subsequent leadership election after Foot stood down.
If you are well off and middle class and yet on the left you are a 'self loathing champagne socialist'.
Which makes Jon Lansman quite a mouthful.
The one thing hugely to be hoped for that comes out of the TIGs is the breakdown of the Whips system - and for politicians to vote, issue by issue, as their conscience dictates. If they can deliver that, they will have changed things.
Although fuck knows what their manifesto looks like. "We will, at all times, Do The Right Thing.... Er, that's it."
"The emergence of The Independent Group impacts Labour the most, although more because of the number of voters it pushes into "Don't Know" than the number it takes for itself."
It is very early days yet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvCSmBdsPWE
ii) She doesn't lead the polling.
This is Rubio MK II
If that were to last it would certainly represent a change in politics.