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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    SeanT said:

    YouGov massively vindicated.

    Yeah, ICM and ComRes reputation trashed. YouGov's model must be the future of opinion polling
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    SNP nightmare

    The Curtice Exit poll looked really bad for them, but this is painful stuff for Nicola.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL at the SNP tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Big win in Bath as well.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm pleased my Bedford tip came off.

    It'll come as a surprise to OGH.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    HYUFD said:

    houndtang said:

    Corbyn almost certain to be PM now - if not in next few days than within next two years?

    No, Boris will probably take over now, go all populist tax cuts and spending bilge, yes it will be Berlusconi/Reaganomics rather than fiscal conservatism really but the voters will like it and Corbyn's plans make even less economic sense so it is what we will have to do to keep him out. What it means for Brexit who knows?
    i hope you're right
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    SNP hold Perth amidst the Unionist surge
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Surprising SNP hold in Perth.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    CON HOLD Hampshire NE, phew, that was a close one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    So, LDs lose 2, gain 3.

    Lots of turnover there.
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    rcs1000 said:

    What's the third LD seat?

    Bath, Twickenham, Swinson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Gravesham
    Conservative hold
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    May is going, which is a good thing. Someone this incompetent cannot negotiate Brexit.

    But who replaces her? There is a paucity of talent on our front bench.
    Should be Fallon.
    Oh fuck that. He's a walking disaster.
    I'm on team Fallon
    Why? He strikes me as a walking disaster.
    Exactly.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    May is going, which is a good thing. Someone this incompetent cannot negotiate Brexit.

    But who replaces her? There is a paucity of talent on our front bench.
    Should be Fallon.
    Oh fuck that. He's a walking disaster.
    I'm on team Fallon
    Why? He strikes me as a walking disaster.
    He's not had a good campaign.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Bloody Dagenham spoiling my book. TMay looking like she's stepped out of a haunted mirror at the Maidenhead declaration
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    May looks broken.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Lewes
    Conservative hold
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,526
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Everybody free, same time, in say 3 months?

    September or October sounds quite possible now. I think the chance of the majority's gone - along with a pile of cash from my Betfair account.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @severincarrell: Remarkable: @scottishlabour sources were right - @theSNP loses Kirkcaldy to Labour
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    williamglenn said:

    May looks broken.

    Yeah :(
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Dartford
    Conservative hold
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    I now have two Michelles in my eye line. However i Hope she's not here for a double win. This is a truly fantastic night for DUP
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    numbertwelve said:

    The champagne corks are popping somewhere in DUP HQ...

    The devil's buttermilk. Sasparilla corks perhaps..
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    SeanT said:

    YouGov massively vindicated.

    I think only the Scotland results have saved the Tories. Who'd have thought it, Scots propping up a Tory government!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DUP take South Belfast.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    SeanT said:

    GideonWise said:

    May looks like she's aged 10-years in a night.

    My god. Her face. That's a woman who is resigning tomorrow. Wow.
    Yep.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    There's only Boris left for the Tories. It has to be him.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Is there a list anywhere of just the gains?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    May got a very solid vote there in Maidenhead.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    YouGov massively vindicated.

    I think only the Scotland results have saved the Tories. Who'd have thought it, Scots propping up a Tory government!
    Big poster of Ruth wth Tezza in her top pocket?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    HYUFD said:

    SNP hold Perth amidst the Unionist surge

    Darn - and that was one of the more probable ones.

    May looks like death - and since it still looks unlikely she'll get a majority, however slight, she cannot even spin it as 'Well, we still have a mandate for our manifesto'.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SNP holds Edin East.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Edin E SNP hold
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    numbertwelve said:

    The champagne corks are popping somewhere in DUP HQ...

    Yeah they do drink these days. Arlene is big on her cider and blackcurrant. Classy.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Should May have worn red for this?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Conservatives GAIN Middlesbrough South despite their concerns. A surprise given other results here. #GE2017
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    DUP gains Belfast South from SDLP.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    May is broken - look at her
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited June 2017
    Farron in. Wot I said.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    May already looking diminished at her count. Gone.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lamb is safe!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Farron slips back in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SNP hold Perth by 21 votes.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Norman Lamb returned in North Norfolk
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    TMay shattered. Feel sorry for her but her fault
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I am disappointed that Lord Bucket-head did not beat Mrs May. What a great name for an MP
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    SeanT said:

    YouGov massively vindicated.

    I was doubtful because of the uncertainty of the youth turnout but it is clear that the youth have turned out.

    For them to have a real long term impact on the policies of all parties they need to consistently do so. can't see it happening next time
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    May looks broken.

    Yeah :(
    Yep, absolutely broken. Badly advised though made some mistakes herself.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Norman Lamb returned in North Norfolk

    Cool.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Portsmouth South rumoured to have gone to Labour.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    at least i voted for the winning candidate in my constituency for the first time ever
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Oliver said:

    Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.

    I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Lab gain Derby North
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Casino_Royale said:

    May got a very solid vote there in Maidenhead.

    Means fuck all in the scheme of things
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    HYUFD said:

    Lewes
    Conservative hold

    And she's a Brexiteer. Interesting result.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    She going to resign in her speech?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    SNP hold Perth by 21 votes.

    Gone in the Autumn election.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    She got greedy.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    edited June 2017
    SDLP wiped out by 2 SF and 1 DUP. The great balancing act ends. Not easy to see a way back.
    18 NI is 10 DUP 6/7 SF 1 Independent 1/0 UUP
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    https://twitter.com/CGoreham/status/873001701611057156
    Normal lamb holds onto Norfolk North without a UKIP candidate. Well done to him
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con gain Middlesbrough South according to SKY
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Faron and Lamb back. Lamb coming back soothes the blow of Clegg going.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    Sad indeed, but bloody hell talk about unforced errors.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Despite feeling hollowed out as my party gets a stuffing everywhere, I'm heartened that this is looking like a good election for Unionism in Scotland and NI
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Norman Lamb returned in North Norfolk

    Yay!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873001947967758336
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MIDDLESBROUGH SOUTH: CON GAIN FROM LAB.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    but Labour gain Portsmouth South!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    Middlesborough South and Cleveland

    Conservative gain from Labour


  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Tories GAIN Boro South
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Middlesbrough south goes blue - Portsmouth goes red
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    JosiasJessop said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Norman Lamb returned in North Norfolk

    Cool.
    Brilliant.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: At this rate the only national leader who won't face questions in the morning is Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    For all some people may feel Cameron was, in the end, terrible, I think it is safe to say that he seemed better at many aspects of the job that May has been found wanting in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    Glad for Lamb.

    Sad the Tories failed to beat Farron.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    God our system is brutal and wonderful, at the same time...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Telford Conservative hold
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Portsmouth South rumoured to have gone to Labour.

    Blimey
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Paristonda said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Flick Drummond gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    May won Maidenhead and speaking now
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: At this rate the only national leader who won't face questions in the morning is Corbyn

    The SNP and LD leaders will probably not be MPs!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Yeah, May is done.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    not_on_fire said:

    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?

    Not gone through yet?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Paristonda said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    Won't happen because the arithmetic looks likes it's going to be impossible for anyone else to form a government.

    They'll stay in power. For how long, we don't know.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Canterbury confirmed. Wowzers. I apologise to YouGov.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Conservatives GAIN Middlesbrough South despite their concerns. A surprise given other results here. #GE2017

    This election is really rather odd. I wonder if there will be enough to make up for the loses?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So who forms the next government if not Theresa May?
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Who sounds more Prime Ministerial? Theresa May or "Jezbollah"?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    She got greedy.
    She did
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lab gain Canterbury!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Clown_Car_HQ said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Norman Lamb returned in North Norfolk

    Yay!
    Wonderful news
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    RochdalePioneers said:

    She going to resign in her speech?

    I would hope so, except I cannot see many truly 'conservative' candidates to replace her.

    We're in chaos.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    EPG said:

    SDLP wiped out by 2 SF and 1 DUP. The great balancing act ends. Not easy to see a way back.
    18 NI is 10 DUP 6/7 SF 1 Independent 1/0 UUP

    Who won Belfast South >?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Can we just step back a moment and admire the Ruth surge in Scotland?

    Wow.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Canterbury I think at least in part is due to Brazier reneging on his 2015 promise that it would be his last election.
This discussion has been closed.