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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HaroldO said:

    This is the worst possible result, but all I can see on facebook is "huh, huh at least the Tories won't win". Labour or Tory government is better than no government!

    The people have vindicated May's stance: No government is better than a bad government.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, this was the worst Tory campaign I've ever seen. Theresa May needs to go, even if we scrape 330 seats like we have now

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, this was the worst Tory campaign I've ever seen. Theresa May needs to go, even if we scrape 330 seats like we have now

    And beg Dave and George to come back.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    My only bet was Labour under 120. LOL!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    George Osborne is pissing himself
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    This is so bloody hung this parliament.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!

    Erm, no they didn't. The Tories are still well ahead, just not far enough ahead.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    Maybe the young have come good? Be very interested to get a sense of turnout.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Exit poll identical to last time suggests the eventual result will be the same as last time: a small Tory majority.

    Interest in the detail: I'm certain from canvassing in Birmingham that Labour hasn't done very well in the Midlands and North. Therefore Labour has made big % gains in the South and London and some (very) surprising gains. Also, the Tories must've won quite a lot of SNP seats, so the Tories have actually gone backwards in England overall.

    Crazy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?

    Hopefully with George. What a mess.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I think it overstates Labour. But clearly not likely to be 50 odd seats out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014
    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
  • dodrade said:

    Scottish Labour in biggest comeback since Lazarus perhaps?

    Literally no sign of this on the ground, but BBC saying treat Scottish numbers with caution.
  • jonny83 said:

    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    1922 committee will get those letters very quick.
    Boris has been on the warpath for 2 weeks.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That Philip Hammond bet for Prime Minister after the election is suddenly looking a lot better than a 500/1 shot.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD tanked 200 pips already.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So who was planning on watching the exit poll then getting some sleep?
    Not happening now!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    I am rich

    Cashed out all bets


    Thanks PB Tories for being so bullish.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Hats off to Survation

    Gold Standard!

    And maybe the way Momentum packed the panels was by the cunning ruse of converting the electorate...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?

    By then the Conservatives could be standing on a 'no Brexit' manifesto.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014

    ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!

    Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331
    It could go the other way.

    Tories are relying on Lynton. So so heavily.
  • kle4 said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    How far out was it in 1992? Because unless it is by 50 Con seats, we won't have a result which resulted in a more stable situation than the one we started with.
    they are far more accurate these days
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Dadge said:

    Exit poll identical to last time suggests the eventual result will be the same as last time: a small Tory majority.

    Interest in the detail: I'm certain from canvassing in Birmingham that Labour hasn't done very well in the Midlands and North. Therefore Labour has made big % gains in the South and London and some (very) surprising gains. Also, the Tories must've won quite a lot of SNP seats, so the Tories have actually gone backwards in England overall.

    Crazy.

    BBC figures suggest no difference in regional swings.

    However that might be where it is wrong, if it is.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Why are they all being so cautious about the exit poll?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    No Theresa is better than a bad Theresa.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Survation bang on again?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited June 2017
    Remember, the exit poll tends to underestimate the Tories. Could still get a Con majority of 1,2,3,4 or 5. Lol.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    I hope a few of you had a wager on Gower when I tipped Labour at 6/1 3 weeks ago.
    It looks as if I'm quids in and the drinks are on me tonight.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    edited June 2017
    Boris Johnson as PM after the GE - who then gets a new deal with Europe and a 2nd EU referendum?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Right time to sign off, before I get egg on my face with the increased Tory majority :')
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Ming Campbell rules out Labour deal with Corbyn or deal with Tories because of hard Brexit, so it looks that if the exit poll is right the Tories will have to agree to a soft Brexit if they want LD support
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Yes
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Is it just me or is this exit poll a lot like 2015?
  • If we pull it off and win FST and that dozy woman failing means another election in the autumn I will be seriously seriously annoyed.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191
    Triumph for You Gov

    Lada for May
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    So when I said Theresa May is a pound shop Gordon Brown and got grief...
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    Dadge said:

    Exit poll identical to last time suggests the eventual result will be the same as last time: a small Tory majority.

    Not really.

    The error could have gone the other way this time around.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair now Con 2, Hung 2.1. Which is the value?

    Con
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    So, looks like the youth have actually turned out then, learnt their lesson after Brexit?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Chameleon said:

    Remember, the exit poll tends to underestimate the Tories. Could still get a Con majority of 1,2,3,4 or 5.

    A one-figure majority? :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Roger said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    Pessimist! Great news for those who want to destroy Brexit. My French chums won't think we're all shits anymore

    Can you imagine Juncker's face now?

    This would kill off hard Brexit. That's why it can't be right. It would be too good to be true.

  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Wish I hadn't put that tenner on Hemsworth.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Thornbury is pissing herself. She cannot contain her glee. To be fair I'd be the same if I were her.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!

    Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331
    So assuming the same error range, that gives Con range now of 298-329, yes?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Has this poll been weighted appropriately or should we be adding half a dozen extra points to the Conservatives?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?

    If it is wrong slightly in Tory fabour, they have a narrow majority and can keep going much as they did before. If it is wrong toward Labour's favour, them despite no coalition it will be a progressive alliance arrangement under PM Corbyn.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    At least we will get Soft Brexit now....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Argyll & Bute, 6-1 LibDem shot. PLEASE.

    Me too!

    SLAB taking Glasgow and Paisley seats will suit my finances nicely. I put a fiver or more on each on SLAB at 10-20.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    This is the worst possible result, but all I can see on facebook is "huh, huh at least the Tories won't win". Labour or Tory government is better than no government!

    The people have vindicated May's stance: No government is better than a bad government.
    But it isn't though, passing mediocre laws is better than no laws at all! This isn't a game, we have the shitshow that is Brexit coming up and having a triumvirate government is appalling.
    I would prefer Corbyn or Farron being PM.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I think this means Nick Timothy gets his p45.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    what are the voting percentages of the exit poll over UK and Scotland
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Con need 327 for majority on Betfair.

    Need to outperform Exit by 13.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    At least we will get Soft Brexit now....

    No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Not as bad as Brexit Mr Nabavi

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    North East was supposed to be bad for Labour. So we should get an idea from the swing in Sunderland if exit polls is completely off
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Wheres Martin Boon

    Hope he gets sacked

    Tosser
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Anyone know what's happening in Putney? Justin Greening could be in trouble?

    Battersea goes on this I would have thought. One of the Swindon seats, both Plymouth seats?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It went insane last June. Tory Brexiteers indulged themselves ahead of the country and are now paying the price.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    What a fucking shit show.....

    R5 presenters can't contain their glee...champagne corks are popping there.

    No matter the actual result, the media are lapping up the possibility of a hung Parliament.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Roger said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    Pessimist! Great news for those who want to destroy Brexit. My French chums won't think we're all shits anymore

    Can you imagine Juncker's face now?

    This would kill off hard Brexit. That's why it can't be right. It would be too good to be true.

    Yes. We must be patient.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Wheres Martin Boon

    Hope he gets sacked

    Tosser

    Really?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Merkel, Macron, and Juncker must be so bloody ecstatic.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kle4 said:

    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?

    If it is wrong slightly in Tory fabour, they have a narrow majority and can keep going much as they did before. If it is wrong toward Labour's favour, them despite no coalition it will be a progressive alliance arrangement under PM Corbyn.
    And what happens when one single piece of manifesto promise doesn't go through for Labour, there would be anarchy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited June 2017
    It's Hillary Clinton all over again, isn't it?
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
    Quite possibly right on both, possibly PM Hammond with LD support he would have a majority but would inevitably be a UKIP surge too and that could put Corbyn in No 10 next time. Politically may be more sensible for the Tories to go into opposition if this exit poll is right, put Boris in as opposition leader on a hard Brexit platform and let Corbyn deal with the EU and agree concessions on immigration, 100 billion euros etc
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    hunchman said:

    Anyone know what's happening in Putney? Justin Greening could be in trouble?

    Battersea goes on this I would have thought. One of the Swindon seats, both Plymouth seats?
    Bristol East too.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    North East was supposed to be bad for Labour. So we should get an idea from the swing in Sunderland if exit polls is completely off

    Could be totally different swing in North from the South. Southampton Itchen almost certainly Labour on this I would have thought.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all

    Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!

    The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007

    Vindicated Corbyn's decision to green light the poll too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    scotslass said:

    what are the voting percentages of the exit poll over UK and Scotland

    They don't do VI, just seats.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck

    This feels worse, I don't care whom is in government most of the time as long as we have one.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pong said:

    I think this means Nick Timothy gets his p45.

    Or hung, drawn and quartered!
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    If this is brodly accurat, can we please elect a proper leader for the Conservative party and then have anouther election in 2 mouths?

    P.S. It gives me no joy to say this but about 3 hours ago, I did predict this. Well I posted 335 +/- 20 Seats which is out by 1.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    hunchman said:

    Anyone know what's happening in Putney? Justin Greening could be in trouble?

    Battersea goes on this I would have thought. One of the Swindon seats, both Plymouth seats?
    Reading East could be vulnerable.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    stjohn said:

    Boris Johnson as PM after the GE - who then gets a new deal with Europe and a 2nd EU referendum?

    Boris? Fuck no, the guy is a buffoon. Boris in some of the biggest negotiations for this country in a long time?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    DavidL said:

    If this is the result we surely be doing all this again fairly shortly?

    Hopefully with George. What a mess.
    George doing what? Were the voters pining for the return of Osborne to Downing St?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    All may had to do was brexit, immigration, protect the oldies and promise to chuck a bit more cash the nhs...That's all.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    edited June 2017
    New boundaries must be a goner

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    dodrade said:

    Scottish Labour in biggest comeback since Lazarus perhaps?

    Literally no sign of this on the ground, but BBC saying treat Scottish numbers with caution.
    Only 10 Scottish constituencies exit polled. Would still be surprised if SNP go below 40.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Yes and no, the Tory campaign was just awful.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    At least we will get Soft Brexit now....

    No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.
    Huh? Don't know what you mean there.

    If this exit poll is true, it also shows that people aren't listening to DM and The Sun anymore, which is good news:)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
    Quite possibly right on both, possibly PM Hammond with LD support he would have a majority but would inevitably be a UKIP surge too and that could put Corbyn in No 10 next time. Politically may be more sensible for the Tories to go into opposition if this exit poll is right, put Boris in as opposition leader on a hard Brexit platform and let Corbyn deal with the EU and agree concessions on immigration, 100 billion euros etc
    You've got to be joking if you think that would be a winner. Brexit is dead in the water.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I can't get over that SNP number, 34?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    atia2 said:

    Delurking to ask how the PB Tories imagined that a campaign this vacuous and this inept would have no electoral consequences? If that were true, we might as well do away with election campaigns altogether.

    I think it was Tory Remainers in the Remain cities that will have been a big factor. People could live with a new policy on social care.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    What is the implied swing - does anyone know?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2017
    You know I heard this sound, like a mass rubbing of hands.

    I think it came from DUP headquarters several miles away.....
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Can I recommend Kanga pants for PB Tories whose buttocks have been clenched to an unbearable level.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    JonathanD said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It went insane last June. Tory Brexiteers indulged themselves ahead of the country and are now paying the price.
    Exactly. Tories shouldn't have treated the country with contempt by putting up such a shite manifesto.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    RobD said:

    Wheres Martin Boon

    Hope he gets sacked

    Tosser

    Really?
    Really
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    BREXIT GETS OVERTURNED

    YIPEEEE!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Nobody knows. Even if it's possible...
This discussion has been closed.