I am overjoyed. Even if this exit poll is (as 2015) underestimating the Tory seat count, it's quite clear that the Tory and right-wing press campaign hasn't had the desired effect of bringing about a landslide for Theresa May. Perhaps the many really will overcome the few for once, despite the best efforts of the Mail and Sun!
I wish to take this moment to sincerely commiserate with anybody here who has lost money. I will note my winnings in a moment but firstly I think it's important to recognise the role that luck plays in this and I hope nobody is hurt.
I also note that exit polls have been wrong in the past
It feels like a hung parilament is huge value at 2.3 odds against, given historical accuracy of exit polls? people just not waking up to the reality yet...
If Sunderland shows a massive swing to the Tories, that's be hilarious. Going out on a limb that is not the case.
Well it's that UKIP vote which is what's interesting. If it swigs back to Labour then this is probably right, if not then it's majority time and hopefully profit time!
Well at least I managed to lay my Labour minority govt insurance bet at a good profit (& left enough on still to provide some cover). Leaving the Cons minority govt position open for now...
10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius
Cameron whipped up antiEU feeling for career purposes and chose to hold the ref. May, much as I dislike her, was handed a difficult situation. Made worse maybe cos it was madked by media sycophancy
Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.
How far out was it in 1992? Because unless it is by 50 Con seats, we won't have a result which resulted in a more stable situation than the one we started with.
The laughter from the EU in Brussels must be audible on the White Cliffs of Dover.
In 11 days: 'Good morning Mrs May, here is a document with our negotiating position, prepared whle you were away increasing your majority (chortle) ...'
I'm posting on this topic as I can't rebalance my bets; all markets seem to be suspended.
Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
The following is a purely personal comment: Hoo haa. Fingers crossed, from the exit poll it looks like bye bye UKIP and welcome back LibDems (a bit). Madness: I'll be sad if it be not true. Wouldn't it be fine if we could also disentangle our short & curlies from Brexit?
*If* this is correct, I would just like to point out that I've called LD seats pretty well at three elections in a row: 2015, Holyrood 2016, and now 2017.
Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
And replace her with who? Don't forget if she has got 40%+ in the polls and the possibility of another election within 6 months, it would be a big risk to replace her if they get it wrong.
If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
Delurking to ask how the PB Tories imagined that a campaign this vacuous and this inept would have no electoral consequences? If that were true, we might as well do away with election campaigns altogether.
This is the worst possible result, but all I can see on facebook is "huh, huh at least the Tories won't win". Labour or Tory government is better than no government!
The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!
Um, no they didn't - if this is right the Tories are still the largest party by some distance. But clearly a lot of people did choose Corbyn. Better campaign, pipe dream manifesto.
Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
And replace her with who?
A cardboard cutout? Would win on the personality stakes.
Comments
May confirmed as crap, worse Tory campaign in living history.
Think hard brexit doesn't happen now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
Good job I did this spreadsheet after all.
I also note that exit polls have been wrong in the past
Marr says sen tories don't believe exit polls.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428768
1992 for example.
Will wait and see how the results come in.
The Labour supporters on my Facebook have been more vituperative than ever, they are seething with hatred for Tories.
This just gets better and better.
In 11 days:
'Good morning Mrs May, here is a document with our negotiating position, prepared whle you were away increasing your majority (chortle) ...'
I'm posting on this topic as I can't rebalance my bets; all markets seem to be suspended.
Why not back again?
Hoo haa. Fingers crossed, from the exit poll it looks like
bye bye UKIP and welcome back LibDems (a bit). Madness: I'll be sad if it be not true.
Wouldn't it be fine if we could also disentangle our short & curlies from Brexit?
R5 presenters can't contain their glee...champagne corks are popping there.
Croydon Central
Bolton West
Bedford
Brighton Kempton
All Lab by 10%
Could easily be approx Con +4 or Con +5