Mrs May appears to be a survivor, but not a mover or shaker. A cockroach during a nuclear war. She's a back-room girl.
Labour have Corbyn, a stubborn old fool who sees in monochrome. Spend money, borrow money, give to the underdog - who are never the UK or America, or Israel. They are powerful and therefore bad.
At times, the Labour approach is childish, but there is cut-through. Give away goodies from borrowed money, link security to the bobby on the beat, pander to the enemies of your enemies, even if that includes the UK. We deserve all this for having some power.
The Tories will win, despite all this, but they hardly deserve to. Hillary lost because she was actively useless, rather than passively useless as May and her election team are/
Majority 65. A triumph for Jezza and a narrow escape from 'Lord of the Flies.', but a government destined to flounder.
Nicola Sturgeon has failed to convince voters that education and public services are her “defining mission” in government, with most believing her priority is securing independence.
A YouGov poll commissioned by Labour found 62 per cent of Scots believe Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” was achieving Scottish independence, compared to just 6 per cent who said “helping the NHS”, 5 per cent who chose “bringing more jobs to Scotland”, 4 per cent who said “protecting local government services”, and 3 per cent who thought it was “improving Scotland’s schools”.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teased at school for being poor. So every morning half way to school she and her younger sister swapped their blue Tory ribbons for yellow Liberal ones. Unfortunately one day, caught in a rain shower on the way home they ran all the way and forgot to change them back. Her father seeing his two elder daughters in Liberal ribbons hit the roof!
Typical duplicitious Tories, always sneaking about and telling porkies. It is bred into them from an early age.
I see you're back subtracting from the sum total of human knowledge.
You are clearly a very bitter, sad little man to feel the need to trash someone's dead grandmother....
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Perfectly reasonable. When you hunt around, there are other seats that might be in play. Portsmouth S is a well organised LibDem target and Corbyn won't play well in the navy capital. Eastleigh is another possibility. When the Tories were heading for 50%, gains here would have been impossible, but with the Tory campaign having taken a knock and some signs of people thinking tactically again, there is a decent list of long shots.
YouGov make Portsmouth South too close to call.
Between the Conservatives and Labour.
Labour 40 to 1 for Portsmouth South on Betfair. If you believe Yougov you could make a few bob!
Tories 1/5, LDs 10/3
Quote from YouGov: "You can’t do a seat estimate without looking at the likely outcomes in individual seats. However, the overarching purpose of the model is to estimate aggregate seat numbers on a national level, meaning that the individual seat estimates are meant to feed into the wider picture".
Or, in plain English, it's a national seat-based model, not a seat forecaster!
Interestingly, a Baxtered 42-41 Tory-Labour position suggests the Tories are 1 seat short of a majority. It also potentially underestimates a Scottish performance that sees them pick up a few more seats north of the border. A 42-40 result gives a majority of 8.
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
Tourists!
They look at their paper or headphones on.. or sleep.. They rarely chat. And if they exist and are Tory minded they will realise that police numbers wouldn't have altered the outcome. You could triple the No of police and triple the no of armed officers and it still would not have prevented this outrage.
An interesting question is what laws or regulations might have helped prevent this, or might help prevent future attacks. We already have some rather strong anti-knife laws, especially considering potentially lethal knives can be found in most kitchens. Stricter anti-carry laws might have repercussions.
How about checking car- and van-hire records against a watch-list of persons of interest? But if that happens, they'll just borrow or steal one instead, or go for a different approach.
Certainly it might be time for another knives amnesty, especially for the larger blades. Though that won't stop another outrage, it sends a signal and won't do any harm.
Nicola Sturgeon has failed to convince voters that education and public services are her “defining mission” in government, with most believing her priority is securing independence.
A YouGov poll commissioned by Labour found 62 per cent of Scots believe Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” was achieving Scottish independence, compared to just 6 per cent who said “helping the NHS”, 5 per cent who chose “bringing more jobs to Scotland”, 4 per cent who said “protecting local government services”, and 3 per cent who thought it was “improving Scotland’s schools”.
That's a remarkably direct comment, Malcolm! I do agree with you though insofar as anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly kidding themselves.
In many ways Sturgeon would have been wiser to go bald-headed for Indyref 2 in this campaign. Her comments on Scottish education and policing are not fooling anyone and merely make her look shifty. I think it might be one reason her numbers have also declined.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
I agree - but I do wonder whether Mr logical actually read through to the end? The bit he quotes is an interim conclusion which the later part of the article goes on to undermine. He basically argues himself round in circles and concludes that it is all too difficult:
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
I thought they were overcompensating but then the surge happened. If they still are, we're screwed.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
I agree - but I do wonder whether Mr logical actually read through to the end? The bit he quotes is an interim conclusion which the later part of the article goes on to undermine. He basically argues himself round in circles and concludes that it is all too difficult:
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
I agree - but I do wonder whether Mr logical actually read through to the end? The bit he quotes is an interim conclusion which the later part of the article goes on to undermine. He basically argues himself round in circles and concludes that it is all too difficult:
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
Yes, he certainly advised betting with caution b ut I think he was clear enough in stating that if you want to use the polls as your guide you should be looking at the broad average - about a 7% lead at the time of writing.
He did however stress that this was a Trump-like election in the sense that there remains the possibility of extreme results at each end of the spectrum.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Indeed. If May gets a majority of 76, all will be forgotten for a while.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Mr. Jessop, such stop and search would be condemned because it'd be predominantly against one ethnic group. More importantly, it could tip off potential terrorists that they're being watched.
Interestingly, a Baxtered 42-41 Tory-Labour position suggests the Tories are 1 seat short of a majority. It also potentially underestimates a Scottish performance that sees them pick up a few more seats north of the border. A 42-40 result gives a majority of 8.
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
So a Conservative minority government and a leadership election over the summer in time for Brexit talks to resume after the German elections this autumn.
The Sturgeon love in was never going to last forever in Scotland. Despite her declining ratings she will likely get more than 40 seats Ina few days time which isn't bad at all.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teased
Typical duplicitious Tories, always sneaking about and telling porkies. It is bred into them from an early age.
I see you're back subtracting from the sum total of human knowledge.
You are clearly a very bitter, sad little man to feel the need to trash someone's dead grandmother....
LOL, again typical Tory , ZERO sense of Humour. Like giving it out but big jessies when the boot is on the other foot. Read your posts you silly turnip.
Interestingly, a Baxtered 42-41 Tory-Labour position suggests the Tories are 1 seat short of a majority. It also potentially underestimates a Scottish performance that sees them pick up a few more seats north of the border. A 42-40 result gives a majority of 8.
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
So a Conservative minority government and a leadership election over the summer in time for Brexit talks to resume after the German elections this autumn.
Of all the pollsters, the Survation model is most open to challenge however.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
I agree - but I do wonder whether Mr logical actually read through to the end? The bit he quotes is an interim conclusion which the later part of the article goes on to undermine. He basically argues himself round in circles and concludes that it is all too difficult:
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
I thought they were overcompensating but then the surge happened. If they still are, we're screwed.
Compensating and over-compensating are not the same!
As far as I know, the adjustments haven't changed in any of the models throughout the campaign (although there was one pollster I remember saying was looking at its adjustments, but I don't recall anything coming of it?)
Mr. Jessop, such stop and search would be condemned because it'd be predominantly against one ethnic group. More importantly, it could tip off potential terrorists that they're being watched.
Mr. Punter, why would Dennis Skinner visit you?
Bloody hell, Morris - I was just thinking Satan and the like, but Skinner?!
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
Tourists!
They look at their paper or headphones on.. or sleep.. They rarely chat. And if they exist and are Tory minded they will realise that police numbers wouldn't have altered the outcome. You could triple the No of police and triple the no of armed officers and it still would not have prevented this outrage.
An interesting question is what laws or regulations might have helped prevent this, or might help prevent future attacks. We already have some rather strong anti-knife laws, especially considering potentially lethal knives can be found in most kitchens. Stricter anti-carry laws might have repercussions.
How about checking car- and van-hire records against a watch-list of persons of interest? But if that happens, they'll just borrow or steal one instead, or go for a different approach.
Certainly it might be time for another knives amnesty, especially for the larger blades. Though that won't stop another outrage, it sends a signal and won't do any harm.
Any thoughts?
Yes -- there are probably a range of electronic surveillance measures that can be deployed: spending, travel and communications should be relatively easy. This is why I have no real time for the "it takes 24 people to follow someone round the clock" excuse -- because in most cases that will not be needed. This will probably not help against the mentally unstable lone wolf who on the spur of the moment grabs a kitchen knife, but the London and Manchester attacks show a degree of planning and preparation by people known to the authorities.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Indeed. If May gets a majority of 76, all will be forgotten for a while.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Unless she surprises on the upside over the Brexit negotiations. But then she should quit while she's ahead!
The analysis puts the Conservatives ahead in six seats including Perth and North Perthshire, Stirling, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aberdeenshire West.
The Tories are also found to be ahead in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
@logical_song Portsmouth South is not a constituency that I find tempting to bet on. It looks like an easy Conservative hold.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
I'm not surprised that you don't want to take the 40:1 chance on Labour in Portsmouth South. I am surprised that you posted Yougov's assertion that it was too close to call between the Tories and Labour.
There's so many nonsensical constituencies in that YouGov survey, I'm tempted to file it in the round filing cabinet under the desk.
Not a cat in Hell's chance that one of the biggest military constituencies in the country is going to vote for Corbyn. Are they going to suggest next that Aldershot might go Labour too?
Mr. Jessop, such stop and search would be condemned because it'd be predominantly against one ethnic group. More importantly, it could tip off potential terrorists that they're being watched.
Mr. Punter, why would Dennis Skinner visit you?
Mr. Dancer.
I was talking about this with my wife this morning. I think we need to have a fundemental rethink of how we handle intelligence. In the light of the terrorist attcks over the last year or so, it's obvious that these are becoming more of the lone wolf type, where information gathering has little impact of preventing an attack.
Perhaps we need to start to think about disseminating corroborated information sooner - initially to the communities involved unfortunately that means predominately muslim ones.
If the information on the recent attackers had been available in community centres, mosques, PCSO's etc then perhaps these people could have been caught before finally flipping.
I'm struggling here as I really don't know what the answer is to this type of 'random' attack.
I do know that no amount of increase in funding for the secutiy services could have prevented this type of attack and am eternally grateful for the speed of response shown by the police. It astounds me that only 8 minutes elapsed between alert and taking the bastards down.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Indeed. If May gets a majority of 76, all will be forgotten for a while.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Unless she surprises on the upside over the Brexit negotiations. But then she should quit while she's ahead!
May has failed to demonstrate during this campaign the judgement, stamina and intelligence required to negotiate a discount at Pizza Express, let alone Brexit.
Interestingly, a Baxtered 42-41 Tory-Labour position suggests the Tories are 1 seat short of a majority. It also potentially underestimates a Scottish performance that sees them pick up a few more seats north of the border. A 42-40 result gives a majority of 8.
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
Yes - unless there is a systematic error in all the polls, which is not impossible.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Indeed. If May gets a majority of 76, all will be forgotten for a while.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Unless she surprises on the upside over the Brexit negotiations. But then she should quit while she's ahead!
Quite. I might be wrong, but at this stage I wonder whether May even wants to fight another election. She will forever be the Brexit PM (if she wins) and will have packed a lot of hard work into 4-5 years in power. Plus although she'll hardly be ancient in 2022 she will be older than most PMs going into such a vote. There is a very good chance that after everything beds down after Brexit she'll decide to leave office, having secured one of the most substantial legacies (for good or ill ) of any British PM. Leave the follow up to someone else.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
eh ???
That's really hostile, Casino.
Well out of order.
"You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook"
Suspect the Polls diverge on two points. Who is shy and who will turnout.
Suspect Tories are less shy than they were so the correction might overstate them a bit and turnout for new/young Labour voters will be up, but not by much.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Fulsome, and well-deserved, praise for the medical and nursing teams dealing with the results of the attacks across the media. people whose wages have NOT kept pace with inflation!
My wife -Practice Nurse- has just had a 2.9% pay rise, which is about the same as last year.
I work in private sector-2% last year-this years on-hold until after Thursday.
No one who was with my current firm 10 years ago is earning more today than they were in 2007. There is a very wide difference in my friends views about Public sector pay and pensions V Private sector pay and pensions. I think there is far less sympathy with the view that Public sector pay should be going up than is widely stated. Not least because of who pays.
Nicola Sturgeon has failed to convince voters that education and public services are her “defining mission” in government, with most believing her priority is securing independence.
A YouGov poll commissioned by Labour found 62 per cent of Scots believe Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” was achieving Scottish independence, compared to just 6 per cent who said “helping the NHS”, 5 per cent who chose “bringing more jobs to Scotland”, 4 per cent who said “protecting local government services”, and 3 per cent who thought it was “improving Scotland’s schools”.
That's a remarkably direct comment, Malcolm! I do agree with you though insofar as anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly kidding themselves.
In many ways Sturgeon would have been wiser to go bald-headed for Indyref 2 in this campaign. Her comments on Scottish education and policing are not fooling anyone and merely make her look shifty. I think it might be one reason her numbers have also declined.
Yes , she has been on back foot recently and SNP seem to be much less bold than previously , probably down to them having it all to lose now. Alternatives are bleak though. How anyone other than the rich, out of self interest, can vote Tory in Scotland I fail to understand. Leaving the Lib Dems who are a joke and the tradgedy that is Labour. It really is the best of a bad lot and if on talent then SNP would be 100% winners bad as they are, which is depressing.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I suppose
@logical_song Portsmouth South is not a constituency that I find tempting to bet on. It looks like an easy Conservative hold.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
I'm not surprised that you don't want to take the 40:1 chance on Labour in Portsmouth South. I am surprised that you posted Yougov's assertion that it was too close to call between the Tories and Labour.
There's so many nonsensical constituencies in that YouGov survey, I'm tempted to file it in the round filing cabinet under the desk.
Not a cat in Hell's chance that one of the biggest military constituencies in the country is going to vote for Corbyn. Are they going to suggest next that Aldershot might go Labour too?
They are making up the numbers in Portsmouth by importing Labour voters e.g. from Southampton.
Interestingly, a Baxtered 42-41 Tory-Labour position suggests the Tories are 1 seat short of a majority. It also potentially underestimates a Scottish performance that sees them pick up a few more seats north of the border. A 42-40 result gives a majority of 8.
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
So a Conservative minority government and a leadership election over the summer in time for Brexit talks to resume after the German elections this autumn.
Of all the pollsters, the Survation model is most open to challenge however.
It received a degree of support from Prosser's work on BES that we discussed here the other day. In betting terms, it may lengthen prices against a large Conservative victory, which is good for punters betting against Survation.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
The warm caring strong and stable Tories have rolled out of bed.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Fulsome, and well-deserved, praise for the medical and nursing teams dealing with the results of the attacks across the media. people whose wages have NOT kept pace with inflation!
My wife -Practice Nurse- has just had a 2.9% pay rise, which is about the same as last year.
I work in private sector-2% last year-this years on-hold until after Thursday.
No one who was with my current firm 10 years ago is earning more today than they were in 2007. There is a very wide difference in my friends views about Public sector pay and pensions V Private sector pay and pensions. I think there is far less sympathy with the view that Public sector pay should be going up than is widely stated. Not least because of who pays.
I decide the pay rise of my company. It has been a minimum of 3% for the last few years. Average pay rise has been about 4% [ meaning some people got bigger pay increases ].
Going into 2018, unless extraordinary things happen, the minimum pay rise will be 4%.
The two women who work in our warehouse earn £25k - 26k.
Very few people leave the company. Over one quarter of our employees have been with us for over 20 years.
I should have added everyone works their socks off. [ maybe except one or two sales people ]
Suspect the Polls diverge on two points. Who is shy and who will turnout.
Suspect Tories are less shy than they were so the correction might overstate them a bit and turnout for new/young Labour voters will be up, but not by much.
There may be a lot of working class Labour Leave voters in the North though who have always voted Labour tell family and even friends and maybe even pollsters they will still probably vote Labour but in the privacy of the booth will vote for May over Corbyn and nobody will ever know. As Labour canvassers from the North report they may say they are 'undecided' but it is all in the eyes, Kinnock knew he had lost in 1992 when voters would not directly make eye contact
I know they are diminished but which papers have declared so far - I think the Mirror and Guardian are going progressive alliance but have the others done their pieces yet, especially interested in FT and Times?
Getting a feeling that the old hatred of the Tories pre-Cameron is returning.May`s refusal to answer questions or take responsibility for her decisions is really irritating. UKIP could still benefit from it and i like their chances of winning at least 1 seat.Nuttall has performed better on TV than Farron or May
Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.
She doesn't inspire confidence. Caught up with my godfather. A Tory Mp he knows described her as B Team and basically not very bright.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
Indeed. If May gets a majority of 76, all will be forgotten for a while.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Unless she surprises on the upside over the Brexit negotiations. But then she should quit while she's ahead!
Quite. I might be wrong, but at this stage I wonder whether May even wants to fight another election. She will forever be the Brexit PM (if she wins) and will have packed a lot of hard work into 4-5 years in power. Plus although she'll hardly be ancient in 2022 she will be older than most PMs going into such a vote. There is a very good chance that after everything beds down after Brexit she'll decide to leave office, having secured one of the most substantial legacies (for good or ill ) of any British PM. Leave the follow up to someone else.
We have to hope she packs more hard work into Brexit than she has so far. She has nothing to show for her time in office to date. It has been a very critical few months for the country. She has squandered them.
The Sturgeon love in was never going to last forever in Scotland. Despite her declining ratings she will likely get more than 40 seats Ina few days time which isn't bad at all.
If she gets 40% ie 5% less than Yes got in 2014 though May will use that to block indyref2 for the foreseeable future
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
Agree , Mr SO.
The casual squandering of the soft power that the UK has built up over the last 40 years is a tragedy for this country that will cause immense damage. Being afraid to openly criticise a US President who contributed money to the Provos and clearly has no regard for the UK whatsoever is the shape of things to come, unfortunately.
Agreed. I was reading yesterday some thoughts on what will happen when the European Medicines Agency leaves the UK. Quite frightening. Could be very damaging to our pharmaceutical industry and to pharmaceutical R&D.
The EMA leaving will be a bitter blow for life sciences investment in this country - but nothing compared to the effects of a No Deal Brexit. There are also huge challenges ahead for the wider R&D infrastructure, especially in our universities - one of the UK's undoubted success stories. Then there is investment in areas such as FinTech, where we were in the process of establishing ourselves as serious global players. The list goes on.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Could you tell us by how much these people are willing to reduce their purchase of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays so that they can fund these local services ?
I decided to vote for the first person alphabetically on the ballot paper instead of spoiling it. A Mr Hitchen will of Ukip will now get my vote. I've not read his blurb and an H rather than a J has determined that decision, so I will retain my record of voting in every GE since I were t'lad.
If Corbyn's kiddies do it, I will accept the result. We may well struggle but they will blame it on Brexit, as politicians always blame each other or outside factors. Que Sera, but I can't see it somehow. The Grey Mist will prevail.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I suppose
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Fulsome, and well-deserved, praise for the medical and nursing teams dealing with the results of the attacks across the media. people whose wages have NOT kept pace with inflation!
My wife -Practice Nurse- has just had a 2.9% pay rise, which is about the same as last year.
I work in private sector-2% last year-this years on-hold until after Thursday.
No one who was with my current firm 10 years ago is earning more today than they were in 2007. There is a very wide difference in my friends views about Public sector pay and pensions V Private sector pay and pensions. I think there is far less sympathy with the view that Public sector pay should be going up than is widely stated. Not least because of who pays.
Quite. Those in the public sector complaining about their measly pay rises (while still moving up a 'grade' ever year or two) don't understand that in the private sector there are many millions of people earning less in money terms than they were 7 or 8 years ago. Pension provision between the two is worlds apart.
Life has become more difficult for many of those on middle incomes, hence the PM's appealing to the 'JAMs', sometimes at the expense of some of the more wealthy liberals that Cameron courted.
Suspect the Polls diverge on two points. Who is shy and who will turnout.
Suspect Tories are less shy than they were so the correction might overstate them a bit and turnout for new/young Labour voters will be up, but not by much.
I think Tories are even more shythan ever.
Look at KLE4 he can't tell his family he is helping TM with her landslide.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Fulsome, and well-deserved, praise for the medical and nursing teams dealing with the results of the attacks across the media. people whose wages have NOT kept pace with inflation!
My wife -Practice Nurse- has just had a 2.9% pay rise, which is about the same as last year.
I work in private sector-2% last year-this years on-hold until after Thursday.
No one who was with my current firm 10 years ago is earning more today than they were in 2007. There is a very wide difference in my friends views about Public sector pay and pensions V Private sector pay and pensions. I think there is far less sympathy with the view that Public sector pay should be going up than is widely stated. Not least because of who pays.
I decide the pay rise of my company. It has been a minimum of 3% for the last few years. Average pay rise has been about 4% [ meaning some people got bigger pay increases ].
Going into 2018, unless extraordinary things happen, the minimum pay rise will be 4%.
The two women who work in our warehouse earn £25k - 26k.
Very few people leave the company. Over one quarter of our employees have been with us for over 20 years.
I should have added everyone works their socks off. [ maybe except one or two sales people ]
Good for you-and with decent rewards like that im not surprised people stay with you.
The young (20s) Labour candidate in Dover has been canvassing exclusively in traditional labour areas which has encouraged her enormously. Her (mainly young) supporters on facebook are encouraged and enthusiastic. This is the root of the problem for pollsters as I see it, talking in echo chambers.
An old friend of mine from an ex mining village announced on facebook he'd be voting Tory, after the abuse he received he hasn't posted again.
Huge tory majority, massive rick by polling companies, been saying it for weeks.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.
Three and a half years, actually. But your basic point is right.
Getting a feeling that the old hatred of the Tories pre-Cameron is returning.May`s refusal to answer questions or take responsibility for her decisions is really irritating. UKIP could still benefit from it and i like their chances of winning at least 1 seat.Nuttall has performed better on TV than Farron or May
How dare you.
On this forum we refer to the Dear Leader as :
His Holiness The Grand Duke Professor Paul Nuttall of Stoke VC DSO KG.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.
Oh I don't think she's going to get a chance to run in 2022, but she is not immediately vulnerable if she gets a 76 majority, which is a good one.
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Sunset in london 21.17 on Thursday..doesnt give that group a whoke lot of time to get out..will be even later in the northern psrts of the country
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
I expect shy Toryism is more likely to be present in Scotland.
Mr. Rog, a problem is that lots of people have said "Oh, but there were phone calls saying X was dodgy. Why did this attack happen?"
Because we live in a country where we're innocent until proven guilty, and a phone call of suspicion does not amount to proof of guilty. Delator is not a recognised profession.
This rather obvious line has been missing from some of the reporting, as if a terrorist-suspicion hotline is a magic button that takes the bad men away without any evidence required.
Mr. Sandpit, thanks. Hope Corbyn gets ousted promptly. Don't believe he will, though.
Mr. Rog (2), RAH?
Mr. Scrapheap, are 90% of 18-24 year olds registered to vote?
Mr. W, 2 Samuel, Ch6, v14: Wearing a linen ephod, "David was dancing before the Lord with all his might..."
Mr. Eagles, that's from YouGov. It's possible that that's a worst (of the pollsters) case scenario for the blues.
It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Why? Entering the data into a live model by iPhone (which the political parties themselves will be doing in the hardest fought marginals), and with the formulae all pre-set and ready to go, they should be able to keep polling until nearly the last minute.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Sunset in london 21.17 on Thursday..doesnt give that group a whoke lot of time to get out..will be even later in the northern psrts of the country
Naughty post - I thought all muslims used postal votes, completed by the elders!
I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Sunset in london 21.17 on Thursday..doesnt give that group a whoke lot of time to get out..will be even later in the northern psrts of the country
Naughty post - I thought all muslims used postal votes, completed by the elders!
and voting doesn't involve eating or drinking anyway.
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
It's not only the Corbyn surge. Mrs May's is now the worst rated leader in Scotland, which is now a drag on the Scottish Tories.
Mr. Rog, a problem is that lots of people have said "Oh, but there were phone calls saying X was dodgy. Why did this attack happen?"
Because we live in a country where we're innocent until proven guilty, and a phone call of suspicion does not amount to proof of guilty. Delator is not a recognised profession.
This rather obvious line has been missing from some of the reporting, as if a terrorist-suspicion hotline is a magic button that takes the bad men away without any evidence required.
Mr. Sandpit, thanks. Hope Corbyn gets ousted promptly. Don't believe he will, though.
Mr. Rog (2), RAH?
Mr. Scrapheap, are 90% of 18-24 year olds registered to vote?
Mr. W, 2 Samuel, Ch6, v14: Wearing a linen ephod, "David was dancing before the Lord with all his might..."
Mr. Eagles, that's from YouGov. It's possible that that's a worst (of the pollsters) case scenario for the blues.
My problem with the poor polls is the fact that on the ground the Tories appear not to be reacting. Surely we'd expect signs of panic in say London marginals by now.
Comments
Labour have Corbyn, a stubborn old fool who sees in monochrome. Spend money, borrow money, give to the underdog - who are never the UK or America, or Israel. They are powerful and therefore bad.
At times, the Labour approach is childish, but there is cut-through. Give away goodies from borrowed money, link security to the bobby on the beat, pander to the enemies of your enemies, even if that includes the UK. We deserve all this for having some power.
The Tories will win, despite all this, but they hardly deserve to. Hillary lost because she was actively useless, rather than passively useless as May and her election team are/
Majority 65. A triumph for Jezza and a narrow escape from 'Lord of the Flies.', but a government destined to flounder.
You are clearly a very bitter, sad little man to feel the need to trash someone's dead grandmother....
Quote from YouGov: "You can’t do a seat estimate without looking at the likely outcomes in individual seats. However, the overarching purpose of the model is to estimate aggregate seat numbers on a national level, meaning that the individual seat estimates are meant to feed into the wider picture".
Or, in plain English, it's a national seat-based model, not a seat forecaster!
When you're stubbornly sticking to the low-mid 40s, it's going to be tricky for the challenger to prise away your majority to such a degree that an alternative coalition can be formed.
Nobody is forming a progressive alliance on that result. The DUP would back the Tories.
THis is not an optimal result for TMay, to put it lightly. However, unless Labour can leapfrog the Tories in the PV (and even then probably by about 2-3 percentage points) it looks unlikely that Jezza will be measuring for red curtains in No.10.
How about checking car- and van-hire records against a watch-list of persons of interest? But if that happens, they'll just borrow or steal one instead, or go for a different approach.
Certainly it might be time for another knives amnesty, especially for the larger blades. Though that won't stop another outrage, it sends a signal and won't do any harm.
Any thoughts?
In many ways Sturgeon would have been wiser to go bald-headed for Indyref 2 in this campaign. Her comments on Scottish education and policing are not fooling anyone and merely make her look shifty. I think it might be one reason her numbers have also declined.
He did however stress that this was a Trump-like election in the sense that there remains the possibility of extreme results at each end of the spectrum.
Of course, this episode will stay in the memories of the men in grey suits, so I see little chance of her contesting 2022.
Mr. Punter, why would Dennis Skinner visit you?
If Trump calls, I expect he will just pass the phone to the Mayor of London.
As far as I know, the adjustments haven't changed in any of the models throughout the campaign (although there was one pollster I remember saying was looking at its adjustments, but I don't recall anything coming of it?)
Not touching that button till the price moves.
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Not a cat in Hell's chance that one of the biggest military constituencies in the country is going to vote for Corbyn. Are they going to suggest next that Aldershot might go Labour too?
I was talking about this with my wife this morning. I think we need to have a fundemental rethink of how we handle intelligence. In the light of the terrorist attcks over the last year or so, it's obvious that these are becoming more of the lone wolf type, where information gathering has little impact of preventing an attack.
Perhaps we need to start to think about disseminating corroborated information sooner - initially to the communities involved unfortunately that means predominately muslim ones.
If the information on the recent attackers had been available in community centres, mosques, PCSO's etc then perhaps these people could have been caught before finally flipping.
I'm struggling here as I really don't know what the answer is to this type of 'random' attack.
I do know that no amount of increase in funding for the secutiy services could have prevented this type of attack and am eternally grateful for the speed of response shown by the police. It astounds me that only 8 minutes elapsed between alert and taking the bastards down.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
That's really hostile, Casino.
Well out of order.
"You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook"
Who are you to say that?
I thought it was an interesting post.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871987755152048129
Suspect Tories are less shy than they were so the correction might overstate them a bit and turnout for new/young Labour voters will be up, but not by much.
I work in private sector-2% last year-this years on-hold until after Thursday.
No one who was with my current firm 10 years ago is earning more today than they were in 2007. There is a very wide difference in my friends views about Public sector pay and pensions V Private sector pay and pensions. I think there is far less sympathy with the view that Public sector pay should be going up than is widely stated. Not least because of who pays.
It really is the best of a bad lot and if on talent then SNP would be 100% winners bad as they are, which is depressing.
As they say, it's a model not a forecast.
Going into 2018, unless extraordinary things happen, the minimum pay rise will be 4%.
The two women who work in our warehouse earn £25k - 26k.
Very few people leave the company. Over one quarter of our employees have been with us for over 20 years.
I should have added everyone works their socks off. [ maybe except one or two sales people ]
UKIP could still benefit from it and i like their chances of winning at least 1 seat.Nuttall has performed better on TV than Farron or May
edit/ six
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/871973135498784769
I decided to vote for the first person alphabetically on the ballot paper instead of spoiling it. A Mr Hitchen will of Ukip will now get my vote. I've not read his blurb and an H rather than a J has determined that decision, so I will retain my record of voting in every GE since I were t'lad.
If Corbyn's kiddies do it, I will accept the result. We may well struggle but they will blame it on Brexit, as politicians always blame each other or outside factors. Que Sera, but I can't see it somehow. The Grey Mist will prevail.
Life has become more difficult for many of those on middle incomes, hence the PM's appealing to the 'JAMs', sometimes at the expense of some of the more wealthy liberals that Cameron courted.
Look at KLE4 he can't tell his family he is helping TM with her landslide.
Many traditional Lab voters in same boat
The young (20s) Labour candidate in Dover has been canvassing exclusively in traditional labour areas which has encouraged her enormously. Her (mainly young) supporters on facebook are encouraged and enthusiastic. This is the root of the problem for pollsters as I see it, talking in echo chambers.
An old friend of mine from an ex mining village announced on facebook he'd be voting Tory, after the abuse he received he hasn't posted again.
Huge tory majority, massive rick by polling companies, been saying it for weeks.
On this forum we refer to the Dear Leader as :
His Holiness The Grand Duke Professor Paul Nuttall of Stoke VC DSO KG.
Labour Uncut, beautiful site, Hatwal tremendous guy, very smart.
Bad Survation and Yougov, fake news, sad!!
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
Astounding.
Because we live in a country where we're innocent until proven guilty, and a phone call of suspicion does not amount to proof of guilty. Delator is not a recognised profession.
This rather obvious line has been missing from some of the reporting, as if a terrorist-suspicion hotline is a magic button that takes the bad men away without any evidence required.
Mr. Sandpit, thanks. Hope Corbyn gets ousted promptly. Don't believe he will, though.
Mr. Rog (2), RAH?
Mr. Scrapheap, are 90% of 18-24 year olds registered to vote?
Mr. W, 2 Samuel, Ch6, v14: Wearing a linen ephod, "David was dancing before the Lord with all his might..."
Mr. Eagles, that's from YouGov. It's possible that that's a worst (of the pollsters) case scenario for the blues.
Mrs May is quite awful.
She should hold her head in shame.
RAH = Robert A Heinlein