Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Thank you.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
If you look at the last few general elections swings in England and Wales have been very similar. If there is a swing to the Conservatives in England, the same will happen in Wales and vis versa with a swing to Labour. Wales isn't as different as people like to pretend, media consumption in Wales is of the UK wide variety not local, so different to Scotland. If people think there will be a swing to the Conservatives in England then the Tories will pick up seats in Wales.
Hartlepool Delyn Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Bridgend Weaver Vale ( Con 2% ahead ) City of Chester Enfield Southgate Eltham Clwyd South Bolton North East Bishop Auckland Alyn and Deeside Putney ( Con 1% ahead ) Wolverhampton South West StokeonTrent Central Wolverhampton North East Oldham East and Saddleworth Bassetlaw Hendon Kensington ( Tie ) Ceredigion Stockton North Worsley and Eccles South Rother Valley Lancaster and Fleetwood West Bromwich East Bolsover Birmingham Erdington Finchley and Golders Green ( Lab 1% ahead ) West Bromwich West Gower Reading East Bristol North West Newport East Stroud Newport West Stalybridge and Hyde ( Lab 2% ahead ) Burnley Bedford Bradford South
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
A few losses to Labour may occur if the Tory margin of victory is low and the result in E&W is similar to 2015, given non-UNS with the collapse of UKIP. However, it is virtually inconceivable that some of the seats on this list will be lost.
Cardiff North (where I have voted in mote GEs than any other constituency) is a bellweather seat. If the Tories lose it, Corbyn would probably be PM, which is highly unlikely. It would be a disaster for the UK if such a dim-witted, incompetent old man and his over-promoted idiotic ex-lover are in charge.
The recent Labour Uncut article seems eminently sensible, as are many of the articles on that blog.
However, Nigel Marriott's predictions about the LieDems are probably close to the mark - they will be virtually destroyed as a parliamentary party. Hopefully, they will lose Westmorland, O&S and Ceredigion, but I suspect they will retain 1 or 2 of these 3 redoubts.
It looks like a big Tory win on Thursday, just like it did at the start of the campaign. The fundamentals have not changed: crushingly mediocre will always beat toxically catastrophic. All that's happened over the past few weeks is that a lot of voters have realised how limited Theresa May is as a leader. She's still better than Corbyn, though, so she wins easily. It's really not brain surgery.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
Anecdata from the ground on both sides, and the campaigns of the senior teams in the last few days do not look like a close race - both are deep into strong Labour territory.
This has all the hallmarks for me of a huge polling mess up, and an awful lot of angry young people at the weekend blaming the media and MI5 for "stealing" their victory. Tin foil sales will go through the roof, and it will be wise to avoid Facebook for a while.
I'm in mind to uprate my prediction of the past couple of weeks of a 10 point gap and 80 seat majority to something bigger. I really want my 20/1 on SCON 9.5+ seats to come off...
Those who follow the Party Seat Spreads will have noticed that there was quite a sharp movement AGAINST the Tories yesterday.
Having peaked at a mid-spread level of 369 seats (366-372) with Sporting Index during the morning, the quote for the Blue Team fell sharply later in the day and they are currently mid-priced at 362 with Spreadex and even lower at 360 with IG. In fact the latter firm's sell price of 357 is the lowest we have seen throughout the entire campaign. Not the time methinks to be plumbing new depths with just 49 hours to go until the polling booths open.
Being at the sharp end of where the big money is won or lost, the spread-betting markets in my opinion generally give a good, largely unbiased indication of the direction of travel and this latest shift towards Labour gives me considerable concern as regards the likely outcome.
Labour uncut was spot on last time. Time to back a largish tory majority again?
You can make a good case for everything in the Labour Uncut critique being true. You can't make a good case for a virtual tie between Labour and the Tories, with both on about 40%. This scenario would require:
1. The bulk of Ukip defectors going to Labour rather than the Tories, OR 2. A substantial net movement of 2015 Conservative voters (remember, these are the people who wouldn't support the relatively anodyne Miliband over Cameron) to Labour, OR 3. A tsunami of very young and previous non-voters turning out en masse, and all doing so to back Corbyn. This would probably imply a turnout percentage in excess of that seen in the EU referendum, and in any event for that vote the previous non-voters are thought to have helped Leave over the line, and the 18-24s were the only age group in the EU referendum for whom turnout declined relative to GE2015.
In fact, for Labour to virtually match its vote share in 2001, which is what this Survation poll implies, would probably require a combination of all three of these effects.
Labour goes into this election carrying about 31% of the popular vote from two years ago. It is likely suffering net losses of voters to the Conservatives, both from the departure of some of the floating voters that Miliband kept and from Shy Tories amongst its old core vote. In compensation, it's probably picking up a minority of "never Tory" Ukippers (perhaps one Ukip vote for every five or six the Conservatives are taking,) gaining about 2% of the popular vote from Green defectors, and probably not more than another 1% from the Lib Dems. And the latter assumes that the problem suggested earlier in the campaign - of incorrect weighting by 2015 vote leading to a false over-estimate of Labour support and under-estimate of Lib Dem support - has gone away, of which I am still not wholly convinced.
All of that should leave Labour on no more than about a third of the popular vote, and the Tories somewhere around 45%, because their 2015 vote looks very solid and you then have to factor in Ukip and Labour defectors on top of that. Again, even assuming that Labour isn't being over-counted to begin with, that still puts the Tories about 12 points in the lead - which is about where ICM and ComRes have been placing them. In a two-party system - and the election in England and Wales looks set to resemble this scenario more closely than any held since 1970 - a 12% lead is colossal. For historical comparison, Attlee won his 1945 landslide with a lead of 8.6% over the Conservatives and their allied parties.
Any significant narrowing of the gap beyond that point requires a huge surge of young and previous non-voters for Corbyn, for which there is presently no evidence whatsoever beyond the work of some of the other polling companies (and even if something like that happens, it will only help if it isn't stacked up in very safe Labour seats, and spread far too thinly and evenly elsewhere.) It's probably also worth reminding ourselves that there was scant evidence of said tsunami in the local elections only five weeks ago, when the Conservatives recorded the most successful performance by a governing party, in terms of seats gained, in the modern era (i.e. since the 1974 reorganisation.)
Hearing that Uncut called Labour Leave areas and GE 2015 right makes me even more inclined to believe them now. They picked up on movements that the polls did not twice in the recent past. I do not see why this is not the case now.
The analysis looks spot on to me: I expect a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands and in the North outside the Manchester/Merseyside corridor. London will do better than I anticipated at the start of the campaign; but I reckon the Tories will have a majority closer to 100 than 50. They are very, very lucky to be facing Jeremy Corbyn.
If you look at the last few general elections swings in England and Wales have been very similar. If there is a swing to the Conservatives in England, the same will happen in Wales and vis versa with a swing to Labour. Wales isn't as different as people like to pretend, media consumption in Wales is of the UK wide variety not local, so different to Scotland. If people think there will be a swing to the Conservatives in England then the Tories will pick up seats in Wales.
There's some truth in this, but it's worth noting that in England (including London), the combined Tory/Ukip vote was 55%. It was 41% in Wales. Labour have 12% of Plaid and 6% of Lib Dem voters to eat into in Wales on Thursday.
If you look at the last few general elections swings in England and Wales have been very similar. If there is a swing to the Conservatives in England, the same will happen in Wales and vice versa with a swing to Labour. Wales isn't as different as people like to pretend, media consumption in Wales is of the UK wide variety not local, so different to Scotland. If people think there will be a swing to the Conservatives in England then the Tories will pick up seats in Wales.
I lived in Wales for over 20 years and did listen to Radio Wales and bought the Western Mail quite often, but was clearly in a distinct minority. Outside Y Fro Gymraeg, and to an extent the South Wales Valleys, for Wales see England.
Those who follow the Party Seat Spreads will have noticed that there was quite a sharp movement AGAINST the Tories yesterday.
Having peaked at a mid-spread level of 369 seats (366-372) with Sporting Index during the morning, the quote for the Blue Team fell sharply later in the day and they are currently mid-priced at 362 with Spreadex and even lower at 360 with IG. In fact the latter firm's sell price of 357 is the lowest we have seen throughout the entire campaign. Not the time methinks to be plumbing new depths with just 49 hours to go until the polling booths open.
Being at the sharp end of where the big money is won or lost, the spread-betting markets in my opinion generally give a good, largely unbiased indication of the direction of travel and this latest shift towards Labour gives me considerable concern as regards the likely outcome.
Morning all. Markets continue to drop overnight, Betfair majority market now 1.32(!) and Spreadex midpoint now 362 Con seats. I'm not sure I know what to think of this any more!
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
SNP on 40% of the vote would possibly equate to about 40-42 seats. It starts to put a few SNP/Lab seats into play in the West like Paisley and RS and Lanark and HS (If there is tactical voting by the unionists) along with almost every Edinburgh and rural seat in the country. Even in Gordon it would put Salmond under a bit of pressure since that would reduce his majority to about 3K with 11k of other parties votes for the LD to try to gain. (Don't think for one second this is going to happen but it is a nice thought!)
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Thank you.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
My contacts are local, and I think there will be a srong second in Bosworth, and LD in second place in Harborough, Rutland and Melton. All are staying blue. Liz Kendall is safe in Leic West. Overall no change in any Leicestershire seat.
My feeling on national prospects is more positive over the last week, I think Clegg and Lamb are both going to win, and Scotland sounds promising. but SW less so. I reckon 11 in total. In all, I think Britain Elects are fairrly close to the mark:
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Thank you.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
My contacts are local, and I think there will be a srong second in Bosworth, and LD in second place in Harborough, Rutland and Melton. All are staying blue. Liz Kendall is safe in Leic West. Overall no change in any Leicestershire seat.
My feeling on national prospects is more positive over the last week, I think Clegg and Lamb are both going to win, and Scotland sounds promising. but SW less so. I reckon 11 in total. In all, I think Britain Elects are fairrly close to the mark:
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Whilst I have no time whatsoever for Diane Abbott, I couldn't help but feel there was a degree of direct targeting against her in her latest interview on Sky, which I personally found quite unpleasant.
When she goes on TV and criticises the government for not implementing a report its completely legitimate to ask her which parts of the report she'd like to see implemented.
Morning all. Markets continue to drop overnight, Betfair majority market now 1.32(!) and Spreadex midpoint now 362 Con seats. I'm not sure I know what to think of this any more!
I was in the same position a few days ago over the acute narrowing in the polls. I'm now satisfied that those putting us into Hung Parliament territory are rubbish, and feeling a lot more confident about my original prediction for the Conservatives (i.e. a landslide, but not a total rout.)
That said, this is the head talking, and the heart remains a bit faint. I shall certainly be a great deal happier once this is all over - assuming that it leads to the right result, of course...
Those who follow the Party Seat Spreads will have noticed that there was quite a sharp movement AGAINST the Tories yesterday.
Having peaked at a mid-spread level of 369 seats (366-372) with Sporting Index during the morning, the quote for the Blue Team fell sharply later in the day and they are currently mid-priced at 362 with Spreadex and even lower at 360 with IG. In fact the latter firm's sell price of 357 is the lowest we have seen throughout the entire campaign. Not the time methinks to be plumbing new depths with just 49 hours to go until the polling booths open.
Being at the sharp end of where the big money is won or lost, the spread-betting markets in my opinion generally give a good, largely unbiased indication of the direction of travel and this latest shift towards Labour gives me considerable concern as regards the likely outcome.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
Labour will not lose Stockton North or Hartlepool to the Tories.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
Labour will not lose Stockton North or Hartlepool to the Tories.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
Yeah, that sounds right. I've yet to see a novel where MSEC stays Labour's.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
Tories don't put up posters in their windows. its too dangerous. Look what the Labour activists have been doing to the bigger Tory signs..
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Perfectly reasonable. When you hunt around, there are other seats that might be in play. Portsmouth S is a well organised LibDem target and Corbyn won't play well in the navy capital. Eastleigh is another possibility. When the Tories were heading for 50%, gains here would have been impossible, but with the Tory campaign having taken a knock and some signs of people thinking tactically again, there is a decent list of long shots.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
lib dems wiped out would be hilarious . how could they then justify their presence in HOL ?
How do UKIP justify their 3 members of HoL? It's how the HoL works currently.
Labour will not lose Stockton North or Hartlepool to the Tories.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
What I like most about your posts is the precision of your predictions. You don't fudge them.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I do hope that you have put lots of money on these predictions.
In other news the former Castle Point MP, Bob Spink who went Tory > UKIP (before Carswell) and then Ind has now been charged, along with another man with electoral fraud and will stand trial in November. They’re charged with submitting normoination forms with false signatures for last years locals.
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Perfectly reasonable. When you hunt around, there are other seats that might be in play. Portsmouth S is a well organised LibDem target and Corbyn won't play well in the navy capital. Eastleigh is another possibility. When the Tories were heading for 50%, gains here would have been impossible, but with the Tory campaign having taken a knock and some signs of people thinking tactically again, there is a decent list of long shots.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
lib dems wiped out would be hilarious . how could they then justify their presence in HOL ?
How do UKIP justify their 3 members of HoL? It's how the HoL works currently.
The original question in those circumstamces is the wrong one. Just as with UKIP last time, the thing to question is a voting system that turns millions of votes across the country into no representation.
Labour will not lose Stockton North or Hartlepool to the Tories.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
Anybody who realistically thought Redcar was in play was kidding themselves. Hartlepppl reminds me of the 2010 targeting of Sunderland Central - it wasn't realistic and the result fell well short.
What do you make of Darlington? Gone like Middlesbrough South or closer?
The analysis puts the Conservatives ahead in six seats including Perth and North Perthshire, Stirling, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aberdeenshire West.
The Tories are also found to be ahead in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Perfectly reasonable. When you hunt around, there are other seats that might be in play. Portsmouth S is a well organised LibDem target and Corbyn won't play well in the navy capital. Eastleigh is another possibility. When the Tories were heading for 50%, gains here would have been impossible, but with the Tory campaign having taken a knock and some signs of people thinking tactically again, there is a decent list of long shots.
YouGov make Portsmouth South too close to call.
Between the Conservatives and Labour.
YouGov's model doesn't work for unusual single seats like this. It simply imports people with similar demographics from other seats, who will tend towards being Labour voters, whereas in Portsmouth S itself are more likely to be LibDem, for both policy and historical/tactical reasons. Corbyn is not likely to go down well in a navy seat like this, but YouGov's statistically driven model won't reflect this.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
Maybe different round here, but I’ve seen a couple of cars with posters and there are a few, admittedly mainly Labour, posters in peple’s windows.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
What he is missing is that the pollsters now think they have adjusted for that. They may be wrong, of course, but we are not back in the days of largely looking at raw unadjusted data.
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
The analysis puts the Conservatives ahead in six seats including Perth and North Perthshire, Stirling, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aberdeenshire West.
The Tories are also found to be ahead in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I'm content to stick with my original prediction of 13. A zero sum game versus the Conservatives, with net gains coming from Labour and the SNP.
Perfectly reasonable. When you hunt around, there are other seats that might be in play. Portsmouth S is a well organised LibDem target and Corbyn won't play well in the navy capital. Eastleigh is another possibility. When the Tories were heading for 50%, gains here would have been impossible, but with the Tory campaign having taken a knock and some signs of people thinking tactically again, there is a decent list of long shots.
YouGov make Portsmouth South too close to call.
Between the Conservatives and Labour.
Labour 40 to 1 for Portsmouth South on Betfair. If you believe Yougov you could make a few bob!
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
Agree , Mr SO.
The casual squandering of the soft power that the UK has built up over the last 40 years is a tragedy for this country that will cause immense damage. Being afraid to openly criticise a US President who contributed money to the Provos and clearly has no regard for the UK whatsoever is the shape of things to come, unfortunately.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
Maybe different round here, but I’ve seen a couple of cars with posters and there are a few, admittedly mainly Labour, posters in peple’s windows.
Are Shy Tories ashamed of being Tories?
No, just proud of their cars and of their properties.
The Con majority price has been shifting with Hills. Now 1/3, had been steady at 1/4 and went to 2/7 last night. For those still confident 1/3 is a good rate of return over a few days. Anyone know what if any further polls are due before Thursday to shift prices again?
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
Agree , Mr SO.
The casual squandering of the soft power that the UK has built up over the last 40 years is a tragedy for this country that will cause immense damage. Being afraid to openly criticise a US President who contributed money to the Provos and clearly has no regard for the UK whatsoever is the shape of things to come, unfortunately.
Agreed. I was reading yesterday some thoughts on what will happen when the European Medicines Agency leaves the UK. Quite frightening. Could be very damaging to our pharmaceutical industry and to pharmaceutical R&D.
Nigel Marriot predicts SCon will gain: Aberdeen South, Angus, Berwickshire R+S, Dumfries & Galloway, Moray, West Aberdeenshire, while SLab will gain East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh N & Leith,
Angus and not Perth and North Tayside? Seems unlikely. Angus is a much harder target.
Would be good to hear from people running committee rooms on election day to tell us how t/o is going in comparison to 15 and 16. Once it gets to 16:00 you won't have time if you're doing your job properly. I don't think this is illegal but may be.
Cardiff North (where I have voted in mote GEs than any other constituency) is a bellweather seat. If the Tories lose it, Corbyn would probably be PM, which is highly unlikely.
Likewise Stroud, a seat I know very well. Although its swings tend not to reflect the national average, Dursley and Stonehouse are Brexit Central and the villages - Cambridge, Slimbridge, Uley, Hardwicke - are all solidly Tory. It's only Stroud itself Labour can rely on and while I can see Corbyn might Hoover up the green vote I can't see that on its own making up for the huge losses in Dursley and Cam.
The one faint hope Labour might have is that Carmichael is the most incompetent idiot ever to disgrace the Commons - I've never quite forgotten the time he forgot to turn up for a Remembrance Day service - and that might split the vote of their opppnents. But I don't think that will be enough to overcome the fact that outside Stroud they hate Corbyn far more than him.
@logical_song Portsmouth South is not a constituency that I find tempting to bet on. It looks like an easy Conservative hold.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
I put a Tory sign on my wall. Obviously it was defaced. I asked the Tory canvass team if I could have a car window sticker. They laughed and said "yes, if you want your car damaged" It's just assumed you'll be attacked in some way. Might be an eggagerated fear, but I do think some people think they have the moral right to have a go at anyone on the right. ps the Labour candidate is pleasant and courteous to the Tory candidate. He one of the ones who doesn't mention Corbyn on his leaflets, so I'm sure he is as distressed as I am about this.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Genuine question Has the rejection of TINA ever resulted in a lurch leftwards?
Labour will not lose Stockton North or Hartlepool to the Tories.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
Yeah, that sounds right. I've yet to see a novel where MSEC stays Labour's.
It turns out that taking back control means living in fear of upsetting an unhinged, Provo-backing, anti-British US President. Feels good, doesn't it?
I fear your glass is going to be half empty for a very long time....
Yep - this country faces a very long period of decline in terms of its economic performance and global influence. On a personal level, I'll be fine and will be able to look after my family with no problem; but as a patriot, it does depress me to contemplate what is on the horizon.
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Thank you.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
My contacts are local, and I think there will be a srong second in Bosworth, and LD in second place in Harborough, Rutland and Melton. All are staying blue. Liz Kendall is safe in Leic West. Overall no change in any Leicestershire seat.
My feeling on national prospects is more positive over the last week, I think Clegg and Lamb are both going to win, and Scotland sounds promising. but SW less so. I reckon 11 in total. In all, I think Britain Elects are fairrly close to the mark:
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Genuine question Has the rejection of TINA ever resulted in a lurch leftwards?
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50. ry supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teased at school for being poor. So every morning half way to school she and her younger sister swapped their blue Tory ribbons for yellow Liberal ones. Unfortunately one day, caught in a rain shower on the way home they ran all the way and forgot to change them back. Her father seeing his two elder daughters in Liberal ribbons hit the roof!
@logical_song Portsmouth South is not a constituency that I find tempting to bet on. It looks like an easy Conservative hold.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
I'm not surprised that you don't want to take the 40:1 chance on Labour in Portsmouth South. I am surprised that you posted Yougov's assertion that it was too close to call between the Tories and Labour.
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Monday evening was a better time compared to Sunday teatime.
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Thank you.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
My contacts are local, and I think there will be a srong second in Bosworth, and LD in second place in Harborough, Rutland and Melton. All are staying blue. Liz Kendall is safe in Leic West. Overall no change in any Leicestershire seat.
My feeling on national prospects is more positive over the last week, I think Clegg and Lamb are both going to win, and Scotland sounds promising. but SW less so. I reckon 11 in total. In all, I think Britain Elects are fairrly close to the mark:
@logical_song Portsmouth South is not a constituency that I find tempting to bet on. It looks like an easy Conservative hold.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
Fine. But I would put money on Labour coming third there.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In 2010 I was driving round for a week with 'Vote Conservative' posters in the back windows of my car, albeit not a fancy one. Was driving canvassing and leafleting teams around a marginal constituency and on the day helping a few old ladies get to their polling stations.
As you say, things would probably be a little different for those who tried the same now. Sad.
Don't forget the x factor in this election. Which isn't Corbyn as so many of you assumed. It's TINA.
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Genuine question Has the rejection of TINA ever resulted in a lurch leftwards?
There are also those that called GE 2015 and Leave right, that are calling this for May so Con majority forecasts can hardly just be said to be consensus group think either.
Would be good to hear from people running committee rooms on election day to tell us how t/o is going in comparison to 15 and 16. Once it gets to 16:00 you won't have time if you're doing your job properly. I don't think this is illegal but may be.
The only illegal information AFAIK is that you have obtained from 'inside' the system after making the required commitment to secrecy. I don't think it's illegal to say that you saw Mrs Scoggins from no. 15 down the polling station and she said she was voting Labour. Although I am happy to be corrected?
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Fulsome, and well-deserved, praise for the medical and nursing teams dealing with the results of the attacks across the media. people whose wages have NOT kept pace with inflation!
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
That was always my test for the salience of an issue -- did I overhear it being discussed while commuting? Mostly, the answer was no, however many words had been spent on pb.
I think the exit poll might understate the Tory result. Will make it squeeky bum time for sure!
It depends on how they deal with the postal voting which looks to be more Tory this time than ever. A swing in the postal votes beyond any average swing will affect their accuracy. Hopefully, unlike 2015, the result will be clear cut enough for this not to matter to anyone who is not on the spreads.
I think the exit poll might understate the Tory result. Will make it squeeky bum time for sure!
Why? The PV error, if there is one, may go in the Tories' favour as the slow swing towards Labour appears to be continuing past the date many were cast. Yes, there may be a 'shy' problem, although the exit poll has not run into this as a significant problem previously. It has underestimated Tory seats by a smidgin, but if this and the PVs cancel out we can hope for it to be fairly close to the mark?
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
Tourists!
They look at their paper or headphones on.. or sleep.. They rarely chat. And if they exist and are Tory minded they will realise that police numbers wouldn't have altered the outcome. You could triple the No of police and triple the no of armed officers and it still would not have prevented this outrage.
The analysis puts the Conservatives ahead in six seats including Perth and North Perthshire, Stirling, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, and Aberdeenshire West.
The Tories are also found to be ahead in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
"So to borrow our phrasing from the U.S. election, when we said that Donald Trump was only a “normal-sized polling error” away from winning the Electoral College, May’s Conservatives are now only a normal-sized polling error away from a hung parliament."
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
That's a superb article and a must read for anybody who is betting on this election.
I agree - but I do wonder whether Mr logical actually read through to the end? The bit he quotes is an interim conclusion which the later part of the article goes on to undermine. He basically argues himself round in circles and concludes that it is all too difficult:
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
Tourists!
They look at their paper or headphones on.. or sleep.. They rarely chat. And if they exist and are Tory minded they will realise that police numbers wouldn't have altered the outcome. You could triple the No of police and triple the no of armed officers and it still would not have prevented this outrage.
That's not really the point, whether or not you are right.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50. ry supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teased at school for being poor. So every morning half way to school she and her younger sister swapped their blue Tory ribbons for yellow Liberal ones. Unfortunately one day, caught in a rain shower on the way home they ran all the way and forgot to change them back. Her father seeing his two elder daughters in Liberal ribbons hit the roof!
Typical duplicitious Tories, always sneaking about and telling porkies. It is bred into them from an early age.
Nicola Sturgeon has failed to convince voters that education and public services are her “defining mission” in government, with most believing her priority is securing independence.
A YouGov poll commissioned by Labour found 62 per cent of Scots believe Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” was achieving Scottish independence, compared to just 6 per cent who said “helping the NHS”, 5 per cent who chose “bringing more jobs to Scotland”, 4 per cent who said “protecting local government services”, and 3 per cent who thought it was “improving Scotland’s schools”.
Tory demographic commuters behind me on the train chatting. Absolutely slaughtering TMay on police numbers and security. Concerning
Commuters don't chat.
One of the tweets on #thingsthatmakeBritainreel (taking the piss after the US reports of "Britain left reeling" was "accidentally making eye contact on the tube"....
Comments
Farron came over better than I thought, but is not good on TV. He is always too fidgity.
Sturgeon bombed out with a hostile audience, very evasive and on the ropes. The contrast with her 2015 performances is stark. The SNP bubble seems to have burst, there are going to be 4 parties in Scotland again. SNP about 40 my guess, though in historic terms that would have been consideed a very strong showing.
Are you picking up any insightful comments from fellow yellow perilists on LibDem prospects?
Is was an aspiration, if growth permits.
Con Seats very close (within 2% of Lab):
Hartlepool
Delyn
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Bridgend
Weaver Vale ( Con 2% ahead )
City of Chester
Enfield Southgate
Eltham
Clwyd South
Bolton North East
Bishop Auckland
Alyn and Deeside
Putney ( Con 1% ahead )
Wolverhampton South West
StokeonTrent Central
Wolverhampton North East
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Bassetlaw
Hendon
Kensington ( Tie )
Ceredigion
Stockton North
Worsley and Eccles South
Rother Valley
Lancaster and Fleetwood
West Bromwich East
Bolsover
Birmingham Erdington
Finchley and Golders Green ( Lab 1% ahead )
West Bromwich West
Gower
Reading East
Bristol North West
Newport East
Stroud
Newport West
Stalybridge and Hyde ( Lab 2% ahead )
Burnley
Bedford
Bradford South
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Cardiff North (where I have voted in mote GEs than any other constituency) is a bellweather seat. If the Tories lose it, Corbyn would probably be PM, which is highly unlikely. It would be a disaster for the UK if such a dim-witted, incompetent old man and his over-promoted idiotic ex-lover are in charge.
The recent Labour Uncut article seems eminently sensible, as are many of the articles on that blog.
However, Nigel Marriott's predictions about the LieDems are probably close to the mark - they will be virtually destroyed as a parliamentary party. Hopefully, they will lose Westmorland, O&S and Ceredigion, but I suspect they will retain 1 or 2 of these 3 redoubts.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
Anecdata from the ground on both sides, and the campaigns of the senior teams in the last few days do not look like a close race - both are deep into strong Labour territory.
This has all the hallmarks for me of a huge polling mess up, and an awful lot of angry young people at the weekend blaming the media and MI5 for "stealing" their victory. Tin foil sales will go through the roof, and it will be wise to avoid Facebook for a while.
I'm in mind to uprate my prediction of the past couple of weeks of a 10 point gap and 80 seat majority to something bigger. I really want my 20/1 on SCON 9.5+ seats to come off...
Having peaked at a mid-spread level of 369 seats (366-372) with Sporting Index during the morning, the quote for the Blue Team fell sharply later in the day and they are currently mid-priced at 362 with Spreadex and even lower at 360 with IG. In fact the latter firm's sell price of 357 is the lowest we have seen throughout the entire campaign. Not the time methinks to be plumbing new depths with just 49 hours to go until the polling booths open.
Being at the sharp end of where the big money is won or lost, the spread-betting markets in my opinion generally give a good, largely unbiased indication of the direction of travel and this latest shift towards Labour gives me considerable concern as regards the likely outcome.
1. The bulk of Ukip defectors going to Labour rather than the Tories, OR
2. A substantial net movement of 2015 Conservative voters (remember, these are the people who wouldn't support the relatively anodyne Miliband over Cameron) to Labour, OR
3. A tsunami of very young and previous non-voters turning out en masse, and all doing so to back Corbyn. This would probably imply a turnout percentage in excess of that seen in the EU referendum, and in any event for that vote the previous non-voters are thought to have helped Leave over the line, and the 18-24s were the only age group in the EU referendum for whom turnout declined relative to GE2015.
In fact, for Labour to virtually match its vote share in 2001, which is what this Survation poll implies, would probably require a combination of all three of these effects.
Labour goes into this election carrying about 31% of the popular vote from two years ago. It is likely suffering net losses of voters to the Conservatives, both from the departure of some of the floating voters that Miliband kept and from Shy Tories amongst its old core vote. In compensation, it's probably picking up a minority of "never Tory" Ukippers (perhaps one Ukip vote for every five or six the Conservatives are taking,) gaining about 2% of the popular vote from Green defectors, and probably not more than another 1% from the Lib Dems. And the latter assumes that the problem suggested earlier in the campaign - of incorrect weighting by 2015 vote leading to a false over-estimate of Labour support and under-estimate of Lib Dem support - has gone away, of which I am still not wholly convinced.
(TBC)
All of that should leave Labour on no more than about a third of the popular vote, and the Tories somewhere around 45%, because their 2015 vote looks very solid and you then have to factor in Ukip and Labour defectors on top of that. Again, even assuming that Labour isn't being over-counted to begin with, that still puts the Tories about 12 points in the lead - which is about where ICM and ComRes have been placing them. In a two-party system - and the election in England and Wales looks set to resemble this scenario more closely than any held since 1970 - a 12% lead is colossal. For historical comparison, Attlee won his 1945 landslide with a lead of 8.6% over the Conservatives and their allied parties.
Any significant narrowing of the gap beyond that point requires a huge surge of young and previous non-voters for Corbyn, for which there is presently no evidence whatsoever beyond the work of some of the other polling companies (and even if something like that happens, it will only help if it isn't stacked up in very safe Labour seats, and spread far too thinly and evenly elsewhere.) It's probably also worth reminding ourselves that there was scant evidence of said tsunami in the local elections only five weeks ago, when the Conservatives recorded the most successful performance by a governing party, in terms of seats gained, in the modern era (i.e. since the 1974 reorganisation.)
From May 7th 2015:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/596123641672261632
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/ge-2015-the-view-of-the-spread-betting-trader/
It starts to put a few SNP/Lab seats into play in the West like Paisley and RS and Lanark and HS (If there is tactical voting by the unionists) along with almost every Edinburgh and rural seat in the country.
Even in Gordon it would put Salmond under a bit of pressure since that would reduce his majority to about 3K with 11k of other parties votes for the LD to try to gain. (Don't think for one second this is going to happen but it is a nice thought!)
My feeling on national prospects is more positive over the last week, I think Clegg and Lamb are both going to win, and Scotland sounds promising. but SW less so. I reckon 11 in total. In all, I think Britain Elects are fairrly close to the mark:
http://britainelects.com/nowcast/
That said, this is the head talking, and the heart remains a bit faint. I shall certainly be a great deal happier once this is all over - assuming that it leads to the right result, of course...
Right, gotta get ready for work. Sayonara!
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
At the start of the campaign both of those plus Darlington and Redcar looked at risk. The non-existent Labour surge you keeps saying isn't reflected on the ground means that the latter two aren't in play, and we're confident about Stockton and Hartlepool.
That just leaves MSEC where I expect a Con gain with a greatly reduced majority than I expected, and Stockton South where I expect we will make inroads into the Tory majority.
That's info from the ground. But what do we know...
It's how the HoL works currently.
Thank you.
Between the Conservatives and Labour.
What do you make of Darlington? Gone like Middlesbrough South or closer?
The Tories are also found to be ahead in the seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and the seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15329375.Think_Tank_lists_pro_union_candidates_most_likely_to_beat_SNP_in_marginals/
"But there’s a catch — and a potential saving grace for May. Although the polls haven’t been very accurate in the U.K., the errors have usually run in the same direction: Conservatives tend to beat their polls there."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/
Are Shy Tories ashamed of being Tories?
Forget defence. Or terrorism. Or Brexit. This is the TINA election. For a decade people have been told there is no alternative to grinding austerity. To their local services shutting down. To visible and damaging cuts to local police schools hospitals - the government even tries to tell them there are no cuts as the A&E wait time balloons before being shut due to "no demand". That despite being such a rich country with a basic Christian moral code that we can't afford basic human dignity for our disabled and dying and old - anyway isn't it really their fault for having cancer? Some on here have talked about leaving if Labour win. A Labour win won't kill you. But a Tory win will continue to kill the vulnerable.
Remember that the game changer in this election was the publication of the manifestos. Beforehand May was Strong and Stable. After a quivering jelly taking the food from your children's mouths and your inheritance from your grandparents. But you have to vote Tory. There is no alternative.
So all of the "polls are wrong" narrative is based around the start position that Corbyn is unelectable. That the Tories will win a massive majority. That people will do their patriotic duty and flick a v-sign at Europe. And that's not just Tories saying that it's many Labour activists too. I have close friends in the party insistent we'll get smashed like the Uncut article says because the sample says so. When I point out the sample doesn't say so they go back to "but people won't vote for Corbyn/investment/free puppies".
This is Brexit and Trump again. Groupthink from the world weary and politically cynical who believe in their heart of hearts that There Is No Alternative. It's like Picard inside the Nexus in Generations, wanting to believe it's true despite the star that isn't there winking away at him. The star in this case is the polling trend showing a massive Labour surge and the Tory lead going to 0.
Sanity and 22 years experience campaigning tells me turnout and distribution will still deliver a Tory win. But my senses tell me Labour could pull of the impossible. In 2015 my senses told me the narrow Labour lead was an illusion because the mood on the doorstep in our then marginal was against us. It's the opposite now. So who knows?
Bet with care my friends. Bet with care.
Anyone know what if any further polls are due before Thursday to shift prices again?
15 and 16. Once it gets to 16:00 you won't have time if you're doing your job properly. I don't think this is illegal
but may be.
The one faint hope Labour might have is that Carmichael is the most incompetent idiot ever to disgrace the Commons - I've never quite forgotten the time he forgot to turn up for a Remembrance Day service - and that might split the vote of their opppnents. But I don't think that will be enough to overcome the fact that outside Stroud they hate Corbyn far more than him.
I do wonder about the perennial optimism of Lib Dems, always finding seats they're on the point of taking, despite a sizeable national swing against them versus both main parties.
Oh gawd. If Corbyn wins, I may to have to start blogging again as a release for my blood pressure. Horrible memories of the Brown years.
Is it too early for a drink, do you think?
Andrea will be relieved that Hunky Dinky Dunky retains the love and affection of the good folk of the Grand Duchy of Rutland.
As you say, things would probably be a little different for those who tried the same now. Sad.
What's the ICM lead? 11 points?
My point is merely that pollsters are already attempting to compensate for their historical tendency to underestimate the Conservative vote. They might wind up overcompensating or they might wind up undercompensating
A YouGov poll commissioned by Labour found 62 per cent of Scots believe Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” was achieving Scottish independence, compared to just 6 per cent who said “helping the NHS”, 5 per cent who chose “bringing more jobs to Scotland”, 4 per cent who said “protecting local government services”, and 3 per cent who thought it was “improving Scotland’s schools”.
Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/sturgeon-fails-to-convince-voters-as-independence-is-priority-poll-says-1-4466913
If I cash out, will The Beast appear?