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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports is finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. with normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1%

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited June 2017
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871865104098369536
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871864797834424320
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    If only this were true.

    Unfortunately not
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    I keep coming back to the lack of tory sustained attacks on corbyn. I just can't believe with messina and crosby if they were seeing it being tied it wouldn't be full on buckets of shit and every well know and liked tory all over the media. We have had no major, no Cameron, etc.

    Even a totally utterly shit campaign by the Tories, the only time they appear to have changed from doing bugger all was when dementia tax stuff blew up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871865622350659587
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871866020612517888
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    In the end, isn't that why May will win?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.

    I am a dunce on how % translate to seats, but surely a lead of 6 on 37 is not as good as a lead of 6 on 45?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    FPT
    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    40.4%. Really? People poo pooed 30%, but that was always achievable. 35% was poo pooed, but with a good campaign which consolidated support, it was possible. 40+%? People do not switch support so much in 3 weeks.

    Night all.
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    Time to buy more pampers I think...

    And the headlines today are not particularly helpful either, except for that of the Express.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    I wonder how many people are going to spill their drinks when the exit poll is revealed. I'm nervous already and there's still 3 days to go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Dougie said:

    Time to buy more pampers I think...

    And the headlines today are not particularly helpful either, except for that of the Express.

    The Tories have no real way to change the narrative from a surging Labour and underwhelming at best Tory campaign at this point. They are reliant on the polls showing things like this just being wrong, or that the fundamentals at the start win out and that the Labour surge is softer than it appears, and they are strong enough to come out on top with an increased majority regardless.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I keep coming back to the lack of tory sustained attacks on corbyn. I just can't believe with messina and crosby if they were seeing it being tied it wouldn't be full on buckets of shit and every well know and liked tory all over the media. We have had no major, no Cameron, etc.

    It's very obvious they think they've won by a pretty big margin.

    Meanwhile, Labour are having last minute panic stations, even tax cuts from McDonell. See that last article in labour-uncut:
    "The doorstep returns outside of London are saying that Labour is still running substantially below its 2015 vote."

    That sounds the same: big Tory win.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited June 2017
    Look Con have won.

    Lets just put Theresa back into Downibng St. for the next five years and get on with our lives...
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    edited June 2017
    FPT - for Danny
    NeilVW said:

    Danny565 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    This helps vs survation

    https://twitter.com/atulh/status/871854725985177601

    Summary: Labour surge is real in (most of) London, but not in the provinces where they are on course to lose 65-95 seats.
    Except we had a full YouGov London poll just a few days ago which showed they were not surging in London anymore than they were in YouGov's UK-wide figures.
    The whole point of that article is that Labour's own canvassing is not squaring with the polls.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.

    I am a dunce on how % translate to seats, but surely a lead of 6 on 37 is not as good as a lead of 6 on 45?
    Not necessarily, it depends on where exactly the votes are distributed.

    In 1992, even 42% (and an 8% lead) was only enough to give John Major a wafer-thin majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    With the polls showing what they did, with Copeland, and the locals, and Labour MPs sniping at Corbyn for years, there were sound reasons for thinking it would work. But they underestimated Corbyn, and (if the polls showing very close scores are right) the public's appetite for what he is selling, even though they were rejecting it mere months ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    On national security and Brexit it was not, it just depends whether you believe ICM and Comres or Survation and Yougov, Kinnock was judged to have had a much better campaign than Thatcher in 1987 too but in the end Thatcher won with a majority of 102 (though the BBC exit poll that night gave the Tories a majority of just 26, it was only when Torbay and Basildon came in they had to rapidly push their forecast up)
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=election+1987+youtube&view=detail&mid=CA68BBFCE047EC76071CCA68BBFCE047EC76071C&FORM=VIRE
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    AndyJS said:

    I wonder how many people are going to spill their drinks when the exit poll is revealed. I'm nervous already and there's still 3 days to go.

    The 2015 Exit Poll ruined my holiday.

    In 2017 I am prepared for anything up to 400 for the Tories so anything less will be a bonus. Of course I could do with an early night anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The exit poll last time didn't even predict a Tory majority, so 8th June could be a long night for bedwetters.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.

    I am a dunce on how % translate to seats, but surely a lead of 6 on 37 is not as good as a lead of 6 on 45?
    Not necessarily, it depends on where exactly the votes are distributed.

    In 1992, even 42% (and an 8% lead) was only enough to give John Major a wafer-thin majority.
    Well "not necessarily" doesn't help

    How many times out of 100 is it better?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    With the polls showing what they did, with Copeland, and the locals, and Labour MPs sniping at Corbyn for years, there were sound reasons for thinking it would work. But they underestimated Corbyn, and (if the polls showing very close scores are right) the public's appetite for what he is selling, even though they were rejecting it mere months ago.
    My thoughts are that messina is seeing yes they underestimated corbyn but surge isn't anywhere near as large and tory number is rock solid ie 45% throughout. I can't see any other logical reason for what we have seen. Even enough is enough isn't attacking corbyn is it aimed at ukip voters.

    Cleggasm - tory press mullered nick
    Milifandom - tory press mullered Ed
    Corbgasm - Tory press the most token of attack

    I guess the danger is the guy with the most indepth demographic info and modelling bar Facebook has got it wrong and yougov are on the money.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    GIN1138 said:

    Look Con have won.

    Lets just put Theresa back into Downibng St. for the enxt five years and get on with our lives...

    Not sure democracy works quite like that.

    We have to actually do the election thingy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The exit poll last time didn't even predict a Tory majority, so 8th June could be a long night for bedwetters.

    This year we need the exit poll to go wrong - We've not had a dodgy exit poll since 1992...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    isam said:

    MikeL said:

    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.

    I am a dunce on how % translate to seats, but surely a lead of 6 on 37 is not as good as a lead of 6 on 45?
    Yes, of course, because if they are polling 8 points higher the Tories would be expected to gain seats from the SNP and Lib Dems.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    According to the story of 2015, all of the ed-stone vs Cameron rolled up sleeves made little to no impact on the final numbers. Messina polling showed a pretty consistent (and accurate) picture from start to finish.

    The hyper active Dave in the last two weeks was because they got the wobbles that yougov might actually be right and what the hell Dave is good at that stuff anyway.

    This time it seems like they think they are fine and may ain't very good so it is always safety first. I just can't believe we wouldn't have had John major on our screens talking about the IRA etc if they thought they were in trouble.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    Nite everybody. Gotta put an extra rubber sheet on the bed and turn in.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Oh, I do wish you wouldn't do that. But I am not listening. I have gone. I am no longer here. I am asleep. Look - ZZZZ....

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    Cameron looked like a PM, Miliband didn't. May looks like a PM too, albeit a rather dull one, Corbyn looks like a protestor and campaigner which he is, so he may have had the better campaign but that does not mean in the privacy of the polling booth voters will actually give him the keys to No 10. Goodnight
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    the tory party don't look like a party that is panicking. they are targeting labour held seats with quite big leads, whereas Corbyn keeps showing up in safe seats. the reports coming back from labour canvassers give the impression of a bloodbath for labour. I suspect we are going to have polling enquiry mk 2 on friday
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited June 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    According to the story of 2015, all of the ed-stone vs Cameron rolled up sleeves made little to no impact on the final numbers. Messina polling showed a pretty consistent (and accurate) picture from start to finish.

    The hyper active Dave in the last two weeks was because they got the wobbles that yougov might actually be right and what the hell Dave is good at that stuff anyway.
    Because the campaigns reinforced rather than challenged the prior perceptions? And this one has clearly changed some minds, the shifts are too significant, the question is is it enough for Corbyn? As he started so far back, it is unlikely. But it won't be as bad as he will have feared.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    camel said:

    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.

    There was no exit poll for the EU Referendum.

    You had Farage and Gove conceding shortly after 10pm which sent Leave's price to around 14/1
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Anyone been to a Corbyn concert this campaign. I think I might go tomorrow.

    Went to Matlock in 2016. He was mobbed all the way from the station. Even a few Tories were there.

    This 3rd tour looks like numbers are at record levels. 20k in Birmingham tomorrow?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    The exit poll last time didn't even predict a Tory majority, so 8th June could be a long night for bedwetters.

    This year we need the exit poll to go wrong - We've not had a dodgy exit poll since 1992...
    We had a dodgy exit poll in 2015, it was just less dodgy than the actual polls so ended up being viewed as sagelike in comparison.

    Had the regular polls been predicting a small majority, then the exit poll came out and said Hung Parliament, then the result was a small majority we'd have viewed the exit poll with a lot more suspicion than we do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    I think it will either be messina big data does it again or he has just had the biggest f##k up in history. It is absolutely clear that the campaign thinks there is absolutely no need to attack labour, when yougov / survation say they should be on all out war.

    The only time tory campaign had got out of first gear always seems to be to defend against oldie / ukip slippage, never to try to attack labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The exit poll last time didn't even predict a Tory majority, so 8th June could be a long night for bedwetters.

    The exit poll last time was not far off the Labour score, just the Tories got a few more. The 2010, 2005, 2001 and 1997 exit polls were pretty much spot on in predicting a hung parliament, a Labour majority of about 60 and the 2 Blair landslides. The 1992 exit poll was out quite significantly, underestimating the Tories and overestimating Labour, the 1987 exit poll was the most inaccurate the BBC have ever produced underestimating the Tory majority by about 80 seats. Although the 1983 exit poll correctly forecast a Thatcher landslide
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    I think it will either be messina big data does it again or he has just had the biggest f##k up in history. It is absolutely clear that the campaign thinks there is absolutely no need to attack labour, when yougov / survation say they should be on all out war.
    Casino_Royale, having canvassed during the weekend was singing the praises of Messina's data from late April/early May being correct in relation to his doorstep experience.

    Can't wait till this GE over. This place wasn't even that bad in 2015, and there were hardly any Tory leads then.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MikeL said:

    Con 6.6% lead gave a majority of 12 last time.

    Any lead below 6% on UNS Con will lose their majority.

    So, on the average of all polls, a Con Maj is on a knife edge.

    Feels to me that many people on here are making predictions based on what they think should happen rather than just looking at the actual polling numbers.

    Now maybe ICM /ComRes will be right and maybe Con will outperform UNS. If so, big Con Maj.

    But maybe the above won't happen.

    On average polls and UNS, Con Maj is on a knife-edge.

    Not necessarily so. A 5% Tory lead reoresents a tiny swing to Labour which might cost them several seats - though in a few they do enjoy first time incumbency. However, such losses could easily be offset by gains from the SNP and Libdems.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kjohnw said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    the tory party don't look like a party that is panicking. they are targeting labour held seats with quite big leads, whereas Corbyn keeps showing up in safe seats. the reports coming back from labour canvassers give the impression of a bloodbath for labour. I suspect we are going to have polling enquiry mk 2 on friday
    Yesterday I saw the first sign of panic - Corbyn going super hard on security, probably the weakest card Labour have to play. A realisation that the campaign won't or can't be pushed onto Health and Education. It looked desperate.

    Today I saw further panic. Resignation call. Quickly slapped down and reversed.

    When Diane escaped Milne's straitjacket this evening and started turning up at studios unannounced, I finally decided that the labour campaign, for all its unexpected glitter, had lost its inner belief. Who cares if Diane escapes? We're spent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    The_Apocalypse said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    I think it will either be messina big data does it again or he has just had the biggest f##k up in history. It is absolutely clear that the campaign thinks there is absolutely no need to attack labour, when yougov / survation say they should be on all out war.
    Casino_Royale, having canvassed during the weekend was singing the praises of Messina's data from late April/early May being correct in relation to his doorstep experience.

    Can't wait till this GE over. This place wasn't even that bad in 2015, and there were hardly any Tory leads then.
    Right I saw that. They seem very confident they have got the data analytics right again.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Tbh, I think you bedwetters wouldn't stop worrying even if that did happen.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    I think it will either be messina big data does it again or he has just had the biggest f##k up in history. It is absolutely clear that the campaign thinks there is absolutely no need to attack labour, when yougov / survation say they should be on all out war.
    Indeed, it almost has felt throughout the campaign that the Tories have willingly ceded the battlefield to Labour. Continual strategic retreats. Possibly the quietest campaign on a national level that you could imagine. Seemingly no campaigning grid, no intensity.

    If the Tories win and win big, it will reinforce as in 2015 that the future of campaigning is not running a national campaign as such, just highly targetted and intense local campaigns in the 150 or so seats that matter.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    This election is on the current boundaries which are not particularly Conservative-friendly. If Labour don't do something useful this time its likely going to be harder next time.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    camel said:

    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.

    There was no exit poll for the EU Referendum.

    You had Farage and Gove conceding shortly after 10pm which sent Leave's price to around 14/1
    Farage I do remember. I fell asleep convinced it was nailed on. I awoke to possibly the biggest (political) shock of my lifetime. I would say I was numb for three days.

    Won't be sleeping Thursday.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    camel said:

    kjohnw said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.

    Yes, Jezza has channelled his inner rock star, whilst Theresa has just looked tired and uncertain. I predicted that the Tories would win in 2015 because Cameron just cut a more inspiring figure than Miliband. But what if Corbyn is more inspiring than Miliband and May is less inspiring than Cameron? Where does that leave us?
    the tory party don't look like a party that is panicking. they are targeting labour held seats with quite big leads, whereas Corbyn keeps showing up in safe seats. the reports coming back from labour canvassers give the impression of a bloodbath for labour. I suspect we are going to have polling enquiry mk 2 on friday
    Yesterday I saw the first sign of panic - Corbyn going super hard on security, probably the weakest card Labour have to play. A realisation that the campaign won't or can't be pushed onto Health and Education. It looked desperate.

    Today I saw further panic. Resignation call. Quickly slapped down and reversed.

    When Diane escaped Milne's straitjacket this evening and started turning up at studios unannounced, I fi.nally decided that the labour campaign, for all its unexpected glitter, had lost its inner belief. Who cares if Diane escapes? We're spent.
    You are right. I know in my heart it's over.

    TMICIPM increased majority is 99% likely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Tbh, I think you bedwetters wouldn't stop worrying even if that did happen.
    I will still be waking up with cold sweats and having to change the bed daily until 10pm on Thursday and I hear dimblebore with a tear in his eye say the bbc exit poll predicts a Tory majority of 100. Anything different and I will be in full on wibble mode.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Tbh, I think you bedwetters wouldn't stop worrying even if that did happen.
    I will still be waking up with cold sweats and having to change the bed daily until 10pm on Thursday and I hear dimblebore with a tear in his eye say the bbc exit poll predicts a Tory majority of 100. Anything different and I will be in full on wibble mode.
    There is always the chance the exit poll might *overstate* the Tories?!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    camel said:

    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.

    There was no exit poll for the EU Referendum.

    You had Farage and Gove conceding shortly after 10pm which sent Leave's price to around 14/1
    Yougov had an on the day poll which had Remain ahead by 4% when they released it in the evening, in the end Leave won by 4%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Tbh, I think you bedwetters wouldn't stop worrying even if that did happen.
    I will still be waking up with cold sweats and having to change the bed daily until 10pm on Thursday and I hear dimblebore with a tear in his eye say the bbc exit poll predicts a Tory majority of 100. Anything different and I will be in full on wibble mode.
    There is always the chance the exit poll might *overstate* the Tories?!
    Sure, but not by 100...We will also know if there really has been a significant corbgasm pretty quickly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Y0kel said:

    This election is on the current boundaries which are not particularly Conservative-friendly. If Labour don't do something useful this time its likely going to be harder next time.

    Yep, the current boundaries are based on electorate data from the previous millennium.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    camel said:

    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.

    There was no exit poll for the EU Referendum.

    You had Farage and Gove conceding shortly after 10pm which sent Leave's price to around 14/1
    Yougov had an on the day poll which had Remain ahead by 4% when they released it in the evening, in the end Leave won by 4%
    Which is not an exit poll.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    Still on for Con majority 102. BUT, am prepared to be wrong heavily both sides. This has been a truly strange campaign all round, even leaving external outrages out of the calculations. Thank God I stayed off the spreads!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Btw has Andy got a spreadsheet up for some bingo action on Thursday night?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    The exit poll last time didn't even predict a Tory majority, so 8th June could be a long night for bedwetters.

    This year we need the exit poll to go wrong - We've not had a dodgy exit poll since 1992...
    The 2015 exit poll underestimated the Tories by 15 seats. Lab were 7 too high, SNP 2, LD 2, Greens 1, UKIP 1.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Btw has Andy got a spreadsheet up for some bingo action on Thursday night?

    I've got a running totals spreadsheet from last time which you could compare to the results as they come in. Not sure how useful it would be.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    I'm disappointed with Stephen HawKing, not because he has endorsed Labour - but because he is advocating Zeichner over Huppert !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    Them too.

    You meeting Priti Patel will make you the envy of a few PBers
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,280
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    ‪Labour are worried in the Brexit North. ‬

    https://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/871722099035041792
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    This election is on the current boundaries which are not particularly Conservative-friendly. If Labour don't do something useful this time its likely going to be harder next time.

    Yep, the current boundaries are based on electorate data from the previous millennium.
    Yes they need updating. Having no MEPs means we will have extra workload for MPs though so I suspect it might be kept at 650
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Labour are worried in the Brexit North. ‬

    twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/871722099035041792

    Shaming people into voting Labour?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Fear not. A certain model has Con Maj
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Second...I was entirely relaxed about miliband government, and actually with brexit (whichever way it went), I am genuinely very scared this time the Tories have made the biggest fuck up ever.

    I am lucky that myself and Mrs Urquhart can relocate but I don't want to.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Labour are worried in the Brexit North. ‬

    https://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/871722099035041792

    'Come home to Labour' admits that a lot of people have left home and it sounds a bit desperate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    It would have to be an incredibly shite campaign not to pick up a massive movement of their voters - or to pick it up yet do nothing.

    It is more difficult to pick up a huge movement to your main opponent of those who simply say "not you!" when canvassed. And whilst it looks like Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and probably a bit more out the LibDems, I just can't see the bulk of UKIP going anywhere other than Tory. So the Labour surge - if that is what it is - must be down to a huge move from the Can't Be Arsed Party. If so, it will be a very high turnout poll.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    KentRising said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Labour are worried in the Brexit North. ‬

    https://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/871722099035041792

    'Come home to Labour' admits that a lot of people have left home and it sounds a bit desperate.
    Surely Grahame Morris can't be worried. That is Easington !
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    Hi Aaron,

    How do you make sense of the polls?

    *Where* is the labour vote?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    It would have to be an incredibly shite campaign not to pick up a massive movement of their voters - or to pick it up yet do nothing.

    It is more difficult to pick up a huge movement to your main opponent of those who simply say "not you!" when canvassed. And whilst it looks like Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and probably a bit more out the LibDems, I just can't see the bulk of UKIP going anywhere other than Tory. So the Labour surge - if that is what it is - must be down to a huge move from the Can't Be Arsed Party. If so, it will be a very high turnout poll.
    Even with that you would think the Tories would still attack labour in order to get some of those switches back to lib dem. There are loads of SO soft left remain types that when they find out about corbyn are disgusted.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Cookie said:

    So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense.

    What, like landlords, moneylenders, and insurers?

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    camel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    camel said:

    I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.

    I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
    I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.

    I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.

    There was no exit poll for the EU Referendum.

    You had Farage and Gove conceding shortly after 10pm which sent Leave's price to around 14/1
    Farage I do remember. I fell asleep convinced it was nailed on. I awoke to possibly the biggest (political) shock of my lifetime. I would say I was numb for three days.

    Won't be sleeping Thursday.
    I can't sleep on big election nights. 2015 was grim, once it became clear the exit poll was accurate, but I couldn't drag myself away from the screen. Brexit was even worse to watch - it was like watching a horror film peeking through your fingers.

    I'm actually looking forward to staying up Thursday, there is for once no possible 'shock horror' result for me, and I'm not working on Friday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    Good luck!
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    Twenty years ago, who'd have thought there would be a rich seam of voters to be mined by the tories in the pit villages of West and South Yorkshire, North Derbyshire and North Nottinghamshire.

    I thought there was only one ex-miner tory in Patrick McLoughlin. It turns out that places like Edlington are full of them!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Second...I was entirely relaxed about miliband government, and actually with brexit (whichever way it went), I am genuinely very scared this time the Tories have made the biggest fuck up ever.

    I am lucky that myself and Mrs Urquhart can relocate but I don't want to.
    Mark your x in blood next to the Tory tree
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    mhh what to believe

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‪Labour are worried in the Brexit North. ‬

    https://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/871722099035041792

    An army of shy Tories? Not turning up in Labour's canvass returns, not turning up in the YouGov polling. It is how you can balance the two apparent irreconcilables from the campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    This is pretty incredible. Standard practice??

    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Second...I was entirely relaxed about miliband government, and actually with brexit (whichever way it went), I am genuinely very scared this time the Tories have made the biggest fuck up ever.

    I am lucky that myself and Mrs Urquhart can relocate but I don't want to.
    Mark your x in blood next to the Tory tree
    Will be taking my own pen, don't want any dodgy business ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    What are you doing on here at this time of night - why aren't you out knocking on doors? lol!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Floater said:

    mhh what to believe

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

    If that's accurate, it's likely the entire Labour surge has been a mirage.

    Hell, most of the campaign has probably achieved nothing. Tories started on +8/10/12/whatever, and end on the same.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    MarqueeMark said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prodicus said:

    FPT

    Prodicus said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For the record my prediction is the Tories to win by 10%

    And a majority around 80-120

    From the bottom of my omg-the-spasms-are-back bowels, thank you thank you thank you thank you for that... recurring.

    A large one before bed, I think. Good night.
    My pleasure. But I have been wrong in the past.
    Did you help TP today ?

    I notice he had Chris Grayling with him.

    But if you've been canvassing and you also expect a big majority then can other parts of the jigsaw be guessed at ?
    Alas no, work has gotten in the way.

    So far he's had Chris Grayling, Liam Fox, and Theresa May visit him.
    And Damien Green, and Priti Patel.

    Hello everyone. I'm enjoying myself.
    What are you doing on here at this time of night - why aren't you out knocking on doors? lol!
    Because he wants to win? The real question is why isn't he out delivering leaflets.... :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Floater said:

    mhh what to believe

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

    Less than three days to go!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can't believe effectively 3 million minds have been changed from May to Corbyn by the campaign.

    But I can believe that Tories aren't picking up the phone.... bit of differential non response ;)

    The Tory campaign has either been very clever or incredibly stupid.
    It would have to be an incredibly shite campaign not to pick up a massive movement of their voters - or to pick it up yet do nothing.

    It is more difficult to pick up a huge movement to your main opponent of those who simply say "not you!" when canvassed. And whilst it looks like Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and probably a bit more out the LibDems, I just can't see the bulk of UKIP going anywhere other than Tory. So the Labour surge - if that is what it is - must be down to a huge move from the Can't Be Arsed Party. If so, it will be a very high turnout poll.
    Corbyn has won about 15% of UKIP voters, some Greens and LDs but if you look at ICM he is only on 34%, with Survation 40%, the difference is mainly explained by youth turnout predictions
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    This place :lol:

    Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.

    After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.

    All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.

    Consistency and a firm constitution are for the uninteresting!

    More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
    Also, it's because the worst case scenario is so much worse. An Ed Miliband government would have been disappointing, but we'd have ridden it out. A Corbyn government will be a fucking disaster.
    If I was ten years younger I'd be emigrating right now.
    I am properly panicking.
    So many unlikely people are voting Labour. So many people want free stuff at someone else's expense. So many people believe the attack clips by the Canary on facebook. So few people give a flying fuck about whether the state can afford all these sweeties.
    It's Donald TRump allover again. Sane but not particularly likeable human up against crazy bloks saying any old shite backed by hordes of angry trolls. Crazy bloke wins.
    Iaccept that the odds are still in favour of a Tory majority. But the possibility of some other outcome is large enough that I think I can be excused some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/871866020612517888

    Yep they have - but a turd is still a turd
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...

    "The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."

    That said postals looked awful for this seat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...

    "The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."

    That said postals looked awful for this seat.

    Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am genuinely very scared this time the Tories have made the biggest fuck up ever.

    Calling the election because, while selling "strength and stability" they wanted to ask the plebs to tick boxes to make them strong enough to achieve a good "deal" - or if necessary, "no deal", but something to do with the Union Jack anyway - and then running a campaign that everyone agrees has been absolute shite, already makes them look as though they've fucked up. The result will depend on whether they have underestimated the intelligence of the British people, which possibly they have, especially young people.

    If there's a big shift in the time remaining, caused by a shocker, it will be in Labour's favour, not theirs. I can't imagine a shocker helping the Tories. Even psychopathic "Muslim" terrorists slitting throats in central London hasn't helped them much. And as the lady said to the canvasser, "I don't give a shit about the IRA".

This discussion has been closed.