I doubt it, in any case Scottish Tories +11% on 2015 in that poll, SLAB +1%, SNP -9%, so the big swing still SNP to Tory which is all that matters under FPTP in terms of SNP Tory marginals, if SLAB pick up 1 or 2 from the SNP too even Tories may cheer a Corbyn gain
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.
I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.
It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?
If I have read the Survation detail correctly, 82% of the 18-24 year olds they contacted said they were totally certain to vote or had already done so by post.
I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.
Doesn't that rather depend on where Alistair lives?
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I decided to vote for the first person alphabetically on the ballot paper instead of spoiling it. A Mr Hitchen will of Ukip will now get my vote. I've not read his blurb and an H rather than a J has determined that decision, so I will retain my record of voting in every GE since I were t'lad.
If Corbyn's kiddies do it, I will accept the result. We may well struggle but they will blame it on Brexit, as politicians always blame each other or outside factors. Que Sera, but I can't see it somehow. The Grey Mist will prevail.
Kudos at least you ate actually voting for someone
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I find my view of the gutter greatly enhanced with this new periscope I've got.
Consolation for the sheet washers of the bed wetters:
My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.
Given what we have learned about Mrs May over the course of the campaign, it is reasonable to conclude that what we have been hearing from the EU27 about her approach to Brexit is pretty much on the money.
If rumours are correct and Ben Gummer becomes Brexit Secretary and Davis replaces Boris as Foreign Secretary after the election even the EU might change their tune a little
I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.
I consider it my civic duty to turn up to the polling booth. What I do in there is then my business.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I suppose
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.
I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.
Only because of the poll tax and the Tories still won in 1992 in part because of Kinnock who stayed on after 1987, if Corbyn still leads Labour in 2022 could be the same story
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?
On topic: reporting something as notoriously fickle and inaccurate as an opinion poll to one decimal point is laughable. It's rather like the nice lady who does the weather on telly saying that temperatures will reach 27.095°C in London on Wednesday afternoon at 4:54pm. In scientific parlance, this is called "a load of bollocks."
Well, quite. This poll is 42/40. Then you allow for the Survation including NI and on a comparable basis to other polls it's Con 43.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?
No, of course not. Muslims don't get a month off work; this is not like the orthodox Jewish Sabbath.
If there is an issue at all, it is that by 9.15pm anyone who has not eaten or drunk all day and not got round to voting already will be less likely to make a last minute trip.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.
Thanks. You have saved me a packet betting against the exit poll.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
If the UKIP vote does not go conservative tomorrow in good numbers and Theresa May does not get a reasonable majority their hopes will evaporate as the HOC will move towards the softest of all Brexit.
Mr. Meeks, you could always vote Morris Dancer. I know technically write-ins don't count, but it'd be something to add to my electoral support in a governor of California election a few years ago.
I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
It'll be greater than 50.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teased
Typical duplicitious Tories, always sneaking about and telling porkies. It is bred into them from an early age.
I see you're back subtracting from the sum total of human knowledge.
You are clearly a very bitter, sad little man to feel the need to trash someone's dead grandmother....
LOL, again typical Tory , ZERO sense of Humour. Like giving it out but big jessies when the boot is on the other foot. Read your posts you silly turnip.
I'd suggest you look in the mirror but understand last time you did it broke.
It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?
Since the reduction in Corporation tax has increased received funds by HMRC why would increasing it by 3% have helped NHS funding?
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I suppose
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.
Green is at least better than a wasted vote
I get the impression that this time the Greens are ruthlessly targeting on a small number of seats (probably not much more than Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, Sheffield and IOW), which they haven't tended to do before.
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
It's not only the Corbyn surge. Mrs May's is now the worst rated leader in Scotland, which is now a drag on the Scottish Tories.
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.
I think they will vote early so to be home for the evening family feast after sunset
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationally
but they have everyone too high not just the young.
In that Survation poll there is some good news for the tories. It asked "if the election resulted in no party having an overall majority, which of the following would you approve or disapprove of if they were necessaryt to form the next government".
Labour had a net negative of 6% saying they disapprove tory had a net positive of 1% saying they approve. This could indicate tactical voting will be a net benefit for the tories.
MEN reporting "labour sources" worried about five "safe" seats in GM area with no evidence of the labour poll surge. Sorry not able to post link.
Labour list have an article pointing out the same. Is this real? Is seems more like expectation management and GOTV after the tide of increasing polls for Labour.
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
It's not only the Corbyn surge. Mrs May's is now the worst rated leader in Scotland, which is now a drag on the Scottish Tories.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?
Since the reduction in Corporation tax has increased received funds by HMRC why would increasing it by 3% have helped NHS funding?
It is 19% at present and going down to 17%. In the business review this morning there was agreement that our corporation tax rates could be higher without damaging the economy but not at labour's rate of 26%. Interesting that the SNP do not support Labour's increase to 26%
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
Good stuff JackW...pbCOM's oldest, and most reliable tipster (we can give you a pass for POTUS 2016...everyone has a bad day right)
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
A nation waits.... my further Tory Maj betting will likely too!
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?
AIUI one is supposed to carry out normal activities during Ramadan; just not eat or drink during daylight. And even that requirement doesn’t apply to pregnant or nursing mothers or those taking medication.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?
No and plenty will but for the more observant, there is supposed to be a disengagement from worldly matters. But as has been pointed out, it is a red herring in any case.
"Bury South, Bolton North East, Worsley and Eccles South, Heywood and Middleton, and Oldham East and Saddleworth are all considered to be in danger by veteran campaigners.
However in Stalybridge and Hyde, initially also considered a likely loss, activists are growing more relaxed.
Meanwhile in the student heartland of Manchester Withington, which the Liberal Democrats had been hoping to win back, Labour are now confident of victory."
Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
edit/ six
It's a bit weird how this election has almost become a referendum on the opposition party.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...
I'm a lager drinker Tyson my mucker. Pint of Carling for me in that fine establishment. Used to enjoy Coors Light in the BV but they've inexplicably discontinued it leaving only rancid Amstel for session drinking. Nonetheless the pony is written off, and some of my bets will come in
Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.
Sunset in london 21.17 on Thursday..doesnt give that group a whoke lot of time to get out..will be even later in the northern psrts of the country
Naughty post - I thought all muslims used postal votes, completed by the elders!
and voting doesn't involve eating or drinking anyway.
Used to in Jack W’s heyday didn’t it? Free beer for all supporters?
Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
edit/ six
It's a bit weird how this election has almost become a referendum on the opposition party.
The story of the election is of a Government that thinks it should be given another five years of majority power solely because the alternative is Mr Corbyn. That'll probably be where it ends up, but people haven't liked the complacency and arrogance of it.
Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I suppose
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.
Green is at least better than a wasted vote
I've voted Green instead of spoiling the ballot before - they aren't going to win and it is important that they get some votes. I voted this way in 2015 as I felt not alot was at stake.
Tomorrow I will be visiting the local M&S to stock up on Thursday night essential supplies - the question is how many boxes of popcorn.... it could be none or it could be a shelf of the stuff.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.
Flying the Islamic state flag should mean banged up
"Last year Khuram appeared in a Channel 4 documentary, The Jihadis Next Door, with other Choudary followers. He was seen praying in front of the black flag of Islam, unfurled in Regent’s Park by a group of young men in Middle Eastern-style clothing."
I think there's a case for hybrid phone and online panel polls. The two methods have their different but potentially complementary deficiencies. Online panels because they are self selecting and phone polls because certain demographics are hard to reach. For example, you could start with a phone poll, fill in the gaps with the panel and then cross check with the phone poll. Once you are happy with your model you then use cheaper online polls to identify trends.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
When the country starts earning it rather than, as currently, borrowing it?
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
When the country starts earning it rather than, as currently, borrowing it?
Valid arguments, except that Tories seem to have moved on from putting economic stability and balancing the books first, since they too now put the politics of Brexit ahead of their economic credibility. And the long-term plan to eliminate the deficit is now so long-term that it isn't a plan.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
Ted Heath? You mean the band leader, and not that politician chappy, I assume.
Tomorrow I will be visiting the local M&S to stock up on Thursday night essential supplies - the question is how many boxes of popcorn.... it could be none or it could be a shelf of the stuff.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.
Tory landslide. Any spare popcorn can be consumed while watching Labour Party civil war afterward.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
Alastair: would it help your decision to move to a different constituency, where the local LibDems believe completely different things to what those in your current constituency think?
Comments
It's just a bit too early to start obliterating the memory of Boris's Today interview.
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
82%!!!!!
Get out of here.
A score draw of shitness.....
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
If there is an issue at all, it is that by 9.15pm anyone who has not eaten or drunk all day and not got round to voting already will be less likely to make a last minute trip.
Mr. Meeks, you could always vote Morris Dancer. I know technically write-ins don't count, but it'd be something to add to my electoral support in a governor of California election a few years ago.
In that Survation poll there is some good news for the tories. It asked "if the election resulted in no party having an overall majority, which of the following would you approve or disapprove of if they were necessaryt to form the next government".
Labour had a net negative of 6% saying they disapprove tory had a net positive of 1% saying they approve. This could indicate tactical voting will be a net benefit for the tories.
I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet
Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s
Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan
SNP in Edinburgh South
Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale
Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself.
I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/871673811984416768
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
Labour say Diane Abbott is "unwell" and won't be able to go on Women's Hour this morning as planned. Pity.
She should just hide like TM is doing
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/general-election-2017-seats-watch-13142522
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
However in Stalybridge and Hyde, initially also considered a likely loss, activists are growing more relaxed.
Meanwhile in the student heartland of Manchester Withington, which the Liberal Democrats had been hoping to win back, Labour are now confident of victory."
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/general-election-2017-seats-watch-13142522
Nonetheless the pony is written off, and some of my bets will come in
Used to in Jack W’s heyday didn’t it? Free beer for all supporters?
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/871829837262061568
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
Both sounded traumatising.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.
"Last year Khuram appeared in a Channel 4 documentary, The Jihadis Next Door, with other Choudary followers. He was seen praying in front of the black flag of Islam, unfurled in Regent’s Park by a group of young men in Middle Eastern-style clothing."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/killers-brother-given-money-by-police-to-fight-extremism-0fbqjjght
Well, yes, I've complained many times about scumbags like Choudary being given air time on This Week.
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lusser's_law
IMV the more modifications that are applied to raw polling data in order to overcome biases in that data, the more random the answer you get.
Remember him well.
The FT recommended a Tory vote in 2010, 2015 and 2017.
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
:-)