First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
I don't remember Heath backing higher taxes and a spending spree, being friends with the unions and IRA, opposing grammar schools and backing leaving the EU
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Roger, with all due respect and in the light of your numerous posts, I find it difficult to believe that you ever considered voting for the conservatives.
'Twas ever thus (or for the C21st at least); It's the only reason that UKIP are still getting a regular platform, though Nuttall must be a sore disappointment to the 'edgy TV' proponents.
On greater manchester, Tory target seats - Oldham East/Saddleworth - Another labour seat where the vote has never got above 20k - Heywood/Middleton - UKIP got 32.2% of the vote 15k votes, tories only 19% - Worsley/South Eccles - Labour have never got above 20k votes in last 3 elections. - Bury South. - Stalybridge/Hyde
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
What cuts? We have been spending more than we raise in tax every year since 2003. What household could spend 14 years borrowing on credit cards taking what they owed from 90% of their 2003 income to 426% of the 2003 income (237%) of their current income.
We need to cut spending properly otherwise we will go bankrupt.
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Absolutely. Shale & Fracking has capped the Oil price for two generations. And the Saudi's seem to get it hence their sale of Saudi ARAMCO on either the New York or London markets. And with the Trump arms deal I get the feeling they might be going to London and the Arms deal is the consolidation prize. The problem Saudi has is that there is no way it can square the circle of Religious Purity & Economic Diversification. They can stay a Wahabist museum or get the people in with the skill sets to build their economy (which has to include the 50% not driving & equipped with a womb).
Tomorrow I will be visiting the local M&S to stock up on Thursday night essential supplies - the question is how many boxes of popcorn.... it could be none or it could be a shelf of the stuff.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.
Or stock up on canned food and candles in case Corbyn wins?
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Good points but I did a bit of punting on this based on how relatively close the Tories were in 2010 and their relative improvement since then assuming Lib Dems get back to 2010 levels which I think they won't and can't.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Good points but I did a bit of punting on this based on how relatively close the Tories were in 2010 and their relative improvement since then assuming Lib Dems get back to 2010 levels which I think they won't and can't.
Want a £5 on LD vs Cons?
(My view is that Scotland is likely to play out pretty much the same as Holyrood in 2016, but with the SNP doing slightly worse, and the Conservative somewhat better.)
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Good points but I did a bit of punting on this based on how relatively close the Tories were in 2010 and their relative improvement since then assuming Lib Dems get back to 2010 levels which I think they won't and can't.
Want a £5 on LD vs Cons?
Vote total in Argyll and bute? Can I come back to you by teatime? I was hoping to stake it on some tasty longer shots but if nothing reveals itself id be happy to go a fiver at evens on a head to head. I'll confirm by 5 if that is OK with you?
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
What cuts? We have been spending more than we raise in tax every year since 2003. What household could spend 14 years borrowing on credit cards taking what they owed from 90% of their 2003 income to 426% of the 2003 income (237%) of their current income.
We need to cut spending properly otherwise we will go bankrupt.
I am afraid that those of us who think like you are very few and far between on here. Too many people just following the party lines. I get the impression there is no real appetite in the country for proper austerity and balancing the books. Nor will there be as long as we continue along the current lines of Government's too afraid to make some fundamental changes to how many of our systems are run.
what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
That missed the West Midlands?
That's why I said a harbinger.
And Andy Street's genuine humility is in start contrast to the Conservative General Election campaign. If they'd approached it with the same tone perhaps they wouldn't be in this position now.
IMV the more modifications that are applied to raw polling data in order to overcome biases in that data, the more random the answer you get.
And you will never know how random it is, because you only get one test every five years - there is nothing which is similar enough to a GE to be a test bed for a GE, so you don't know if your system works, or got the right answer by chance or because of self-cancelling errors, nor whether even if it is right this time, changes in the zeitgest five years hence will render it useless.
In short, pollsters might almost as well not bother. I pay a lot more attention to canvassing reports from certain reliable sources on here than I do to polls, despite the small size of a canvasser's data sets and his/her absolutely huge and admitted inbuilt bias.
Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
edit/ six
It's a bit weird how this election has almost become a referendum on the opposition party.
The story of the election is of a Government that thinks it should be given another five years of majority power solely because the alternative is Mr Corbyn. That'll probably be where it ends up, but people haven't liked the complacency and arrogance of it.
Nor the opportunism.
Instead of getting on with Brexit, the deficit and running the country generally, the Government has taken time out to impose an unnecessary election on the public so as to fluff up its majority.
If this comes back to bite it, it can hardly blame the Opposition.
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Nope it was an Andy Burnham personal vote, if Labour had taken my advice in 2015 and picked Burnham instead of Corbyn we might well be heading for a hung parliament, I can see Burnham winning Nuneaton, Chorley and Thurrock, I cannot see Corbyn doing so
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Absolutely. Shale & Fracking has capped the Oil price for two generations. And the Saudi's seem to get it hence their sale of Saudi ARAMCO on either the New York or London markets. And with the Trump arms deal I get the feeling they might be going to London and the Arms deal is the consolidation prize. The problem Saudi has is that there is no way it can square the circle of Religious Purity & Economic Diversification. They can stay a Wahabist museum or get the people in with the skill sets to build their economy (which has to include the 50% not driving & equipped with a womb).
Longer term, both solar and batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper, and better and better. Look at the Tesla Model 3: why would you get a BMW 3 series over it? It's cheaper, faster, has more space, is more high-tech, and will have massively lower maintenance and fuel costs.
You know peak oil? It's peak oil demand you need to worry about, not peak supply.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Good points but I did a bit of punting on this based on how relatively close the Tories were in 2010 and their relative improvement since then assuming Lib Dems get back to 2010 levels which I think they won't and can't.
Want a £5 on LD vs Cons?
Vote total in Argyll and bute? Can I come back to you by teatime? I was hoping to stake it on some tasty longer shots but if nothing reveals itself id be happy to go a fiver at evens on a head to head. I'll confirm by 5 if that is OK with you?
My work place in canary wharf has let everyone leave the office at 4pm to vote.
Corbynism sweeping the wharf ?
I've got 1500 to put down in the next two days.
Leaning towards a tory win 376-400 seats at 11/4 and to cover 7/1 400-425
I don't live far (Poplar & Limehouse), I got two leaflets through the door, one for Lab one for Con, same day, addressed to the same person. I do wonder if the deliveryman is having it both ways!
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Absolutely. Shale & Fracking has capped the Oil price for two generations. And the Saudi's seem to get it hence their sale of Saudi ARAMCO on either the New York or London markets. And with the Trump arms deal I get the feeling they might be going to London and the Arms deal is the consolidation prize. The problem Saudi has is that there is no way it can square the circle of Religious Purity & Economic Diversification. They can stay a Wahabist museum or get the people in with the skill sets to build their economy (which has to include the 50% not driving & equipped with a womb).
Longer term, both solar and batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper, and better and better. Look at the Tesla Model 3: why would you get a BMW 3 series over it? It's cheaper, faster, has more space, is more high-tech, and will have massively lower maintenance and fuel costs.
The Tesla solar roof technology looks amazing (figuratively and literally).
My work place in canary wharf has let everyone leave the office at 4pm to vote.
Corbynism sweeping the wharf ?
I've got 1500 to put down in the next two days.
Leaning towards a tory win 376-400 seats at 11/4 and to cover 7/1 400-425
I don't live far (Poplar & Limehouse), I got two leaflets through the door, one for Lab one for Con, same day, addressed to the same person. I do wonder if the deliveryman is having it both ways!
90% of my office don't live in london. Why would we want to live in a complete shithole. (no disrespect but there are better options)
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Nope it was an Andy Burnham personal vote, if Labour had taken my advice in 2015 and picked Burnham instead of Corbyn we might well be heading for a hung parliament, I can see Burnham winning Nuneaton, Chorley and Thurrock, I cannot see Corbyn doing so
Yes he took some areas of Manchester which will definitely vote Tory shortly.
It's more Choudray timing the rally than the to organising it though isn't it? In hindsight it does seem ridiculous to have him on tv debates though
Problem is, you then get those who say that banning the IRA from TV didn't do much good.
That was at least because the TV industry played a game and there was the perennial "His words have been voiced by an actor". To me that attitude was much more revolting than anything Corbyn might or might not have stupidly said. The banning was for the very good reason it is being suggested now. It was SICK that the policy was undermined by the broadcast media for the cheapest of cheap shots. It might alternatively have been that the policy was wrong - in that case it should have been debated and repealed for that reason. In the end Blair repealed it for the same reason he did everything - short term advantage.
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.
Good points but I did a bit of punting on this based on how relatively close the Tories were in 2010 and their relative improvement since then assuming Lib Dems get back to 2010 levels which I think they won't and can't.
Want a £5 on LD vs Cons?
Vote total in Argyll and bute? Can I come back to you by teatime? I was hoping to stake it on some tasty longer shots but if nothing reveals itself id be happy to go a fiver at evens on a head to head. I'll confirm by 5 if that is OK with you?
Perfect. You know my email address
Shamefully I don't. I only ever comment without noticing what addresses etc are involved with the site. Can you remind me please?
IMV the more modifications that are applied to raw polling data in order to overcome biases in that data, the more random the answer you get.
And you will never know how random it is, because you only get one test every five years - there is nothing which is similar enough to a GE to be a test bed for a GE, so you don't know if your system works, or got the right answer by chance or because of self-cancelling errors, nor whether even if it is right this time, changes in the zeitgest five years hence will render it useless.
In short, pollsters might almost as well not bother. I pay a lot more attention to canvassing reports from certain reliable sources on here than I do to polls, despite the small size of a canvasser's data sets and his/her absolutely huge and admitted inbuilt bias.
The problem is that such polling will always have a larger MoE than is advertised because of all the uncertainties, and a percentage point or two can mean a vast difference in the numbers of seats won per party.
Such polling may be very good for other purposes: e.g. brand recognition, where five or ten percentage points does not matter too much. But they do matter in elections.
I'm unsure we can even detect a reliable trend in the polls for this election: the data just seems too unreliable, both during the campaign and before. It's all noise.
But I might well be wrong, and I guess we'll discover the truth on Friday morning ...
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Nope it was an Andy Burnham personal vote, if Labour had taken my advice in 2015 and picked Burnham instead of Corbyn we might well be heading for a hung parliament, I can see Burnham winning Nuneaton, Chorley and Thurrock, I cannot see Corbyn doing so
Yes he took some areas of Manchester which will definitely vote Tory shortly.
He and Cooper ran terrible leadership campaigns though. Easy to forget just how tired and pointless the party seemed after 2015. Corbyn is the only reason for paying attention to it recently, for better and worse.
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Nope it was an Andy Burnham personal vote, if Labour had taken my advice in 2015 and picked Burnham instead of Corbyn we might well be heading for a hung parliament, I can see Burnham winning Nuneaton, Chorley and Thurrock, I cannot see Corbyn doing so
Yes he took some areas of Manchester which will definitely vote Tory shortly.
Burnham polls above his party, Corbyn polls below his. The Northwest will see heavy Labour losses to the Tories under Corbyn, if Burnham was Labour leader Labour would probably be making gains in the North West
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
Ironically, unionist attempts at tactical voting may save a couple of SNP MPs if the voters mess it up.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
I don't remember Heath backing higher taxes and a spending spree, being friends with the unions and IRA, opposing grammar schools and backing leaving the EU
You have forgotten the Heath government closed more grammar schools than any other (Ed Sec: M Thatcher) and gave us the Barber Boom causing record deficits and inflation. It was Heath and Barber that Mrs Thatcher's governments were reacting against -- not the intervening Labour regime.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
DA is unwell
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
I think she is unwell. She is 63. If a relative of mine deteriorated from the way she used to be on the Abbott and Portillo show to the way she is now, I'd be wanting some neurological testing done.
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
Ironically, unionist attempts at tactical voting may save a couple of SNP MPs if the voters mess it up.
Argyll and Bute strikes me as just such a seat. As does East Renfrewshire.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
DA is unwell
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
I think she is unwell. She is 63. If a relative of mine deteriorated from the way she used to be on the Abbott and Portillo show to the way she is now, I'd be wanting some neurological testing done.
If she's not unwell she is spectacularly incompetent. Her performance last night was reminiscent of someone who had bluffed their way into a senior management role and is in their first board meeting with no clue about anything and trying to wing it, badly.
I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.
The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.
I was thinking the same about Trump, unlike Obama he was quick to engage in the region, I thought his plane flying directly from Riyadh to Tel Aviv was hugely symbolic.
His Saudi speech was very clear that the Muslim world need to join the war against Islamic terrorism, and even with Trump these things are written carefully by the diplomats with reference to the host country. Knowing what we know now, it's clear that the other GGC countries know they need to get their own region in order and stop the support that's flowing to the scumbags. They're also quickly waking up to the fact that oil prices aren't coming back up any time soon, and economic diversification is urgent and important to protect their economies and prevent uprisings.
Absolutely. Shale & Fracking has capped the Oil price for two generations. And the Saudi's seem to get it hence their sale of Saudi ARAMCO on either the New York or London markets. And with the Trump arms deal I get the feeling they might be going to London and the Arms deal is the consolidation prize. The problem Saudi has is that there is no way it can square the circle of Religious Purity & Economic Diversification. They can stay a Wahabist museum or get the people in with the skill sets to build their economy (which has to include the 50% not driving & equipped with a womb).
Longer term, both solar and batteries are getting cheaper and cheaper, and better and better. Look at the Tesla Model 3: why would you get a BMW 3 series over it? It's cheaper, faster, has more space, is more high-tech, and will have massively lower maintenance and fuel costs.
You know peak oil? It's peak oil demand you need to worry about, not peak supply.
Amazing that we all thought for decades that Peak Oil would be on the supply side. The OPEC countries are now properly sh!tting themselves that they can't control the price any more.
Tesla are about to open a dealership in Dubai, where petrol is 50 cents a litre.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
I don't remember Heath backing higher taxes and a spending spree, being friends with the unions and IRA, opposing grammar schools and backing leaving the EU
Under Heath, the top rate of income tax in 1973 was 75%. What might now appear to you as a spending spree was then representative of a broad political consensus of funding for public services. Trade union legislation under Heath was a shadow of what we have now (and would have been even if his planned changes had gone ahead). More schools were converted from secondary modern/grammar school status under Heath's enlightened Sec of State for Education (remember her?). And even though we joined the EEC, it was a pale shadow of what the EU later turned into, something that many who voted to join in point out when stating their support for Brexit now.
That's just the points you chose to focus on, ignoring the many other parallels you chose to ignore.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!
I don't remember Heath backing higher taxes and a spending spree, being friends with the unions and IRA, opposing grammar schools and backing leaving the EU
You have forgotten the Heath government closed more grammar schools than any other (Ed Sec: M Thatcher) and gave us the Barber Boom causing record deficits and inflation. It was Heath and Barber that Mrs Thatcher's governments were reacting against -- not the intervening Labour regime.
More to the point the Heath government did bot always block Labour councils closing grammars though yes Heath failed as much as Callaghan to control unions
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
Some comfort also in the unlikely shape of the original working class hero.. spot on despite being 50 years old (especially the last bit which could have been written for McDonnell).
You say you want a revolution Well, you know We all want to change the world You tell me that it's evolution Well, you know We all want to change the world But when you talk about destruction Don't you know that you can count me out Don't you know it's gonna be All right, all right, all right
You say you got a real solution Well, you know We'd all love to see the plan You ask me for a contribution Well, you know We're doing what we can But if you want money for people with minds that hate All I can tell is brother you have to wait Don't you know it's gonna be All right, all right, all right
You say you'll change the constitution Well, you know We all want to change your head You tell me it's the institution Well, you know You better free you mind instead But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow Don't you know it's gonna be All right, all right, all right All right, all right, all right All right, all right, all right All right, all right
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Umm but then Street won the Midlands for the Cons...
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
What cuts? We have been spending more than we raise in tax every year since 2003. What household could spend 14 years borrowing on credit cards taking what they owed from 90% of their 2003 income to 426% of the 2003 income (237%) of their current income.
We need to cut spending properly otherwise we will go bankrupt.
I am afraid that those of us who think like you are very few and far between on here. Too many people just following the party lines. I get the impression there is no real appetite in the country for proper austerity and balancing the books. Nor will there be as long as we continue along the current lines of Government's too afraid to make some fundamental changes to how many of our systems are run.
Cutting spending is almost off the table now. None of the parties are talking about it, the public has had enough, and the upward pressures on pensions, health, social care and education are significant. Obviously there'll still be constraints on most departments, but total public spending is not going to go down.
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
The Straits Times and the South China Morning Post are among the pages that open automatically for me when I start Chrome. It reminds me of visits there, it makes me feel I'm in a Joseph Conrad novel and I like to get an outside-looking-in slant on matters. The above two give the lie to the oft-made claim that we're an insignificant backwater of a country. It is surprising how often a UK story makes the front page, which shows the real parochialism to be of those who talk us down in that way.
The above linked story is the lead item on the front page of the SJ yet nowhere to be seen on the DT, the Graun etc. There is also this
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
Labour's problem is that the increase in vote will come reasonably uniformly and just lead to slightly better 2nd places in much of Glasgow and the west of Scotland.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
DA is unwell
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
I think she is unwell. She is 63. If a relative of mine deteriorated from the way she used to be on the Abbott and Portillo show to the way she is now, I'd be wanting some neurological testing done.
If she's not unwell she is spectacularly incompetent. Her performance last night was reminiscent of someone who had bluffed their way into a senior management role and is in their first board meeting with no clue about anything and trying to wing it, badly.
It reminded me very strongly of me in an undergraduate tutorial, with a combination of a bad hangover and being still drunk/stoned from last night, trying to disguise the fact that I hadn't even looked at the primary sources the tutorial was meant to be about, never mind anything else.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
DA is unwell
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
I think she is unwell. She is 63. If a relative of mine deteriorated from the way she used to be on the Abbott and Portillo show to the way she is now, I'd be wanting some neurological testing done.
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
Labour's problem is that the increase in vote will come reasonably uniformly and just lead to slightly better 2nd places in much of Glasgow and the west of Scotland.
North and Leith is within striking distance though.
That's my facebook in a nutshell - I think the discussion on here is far more civil. Particularly I have to say the Labour posters.
Yes I have to agree. I'm not really thane on Facebook politics where if you say anything to criticise the Labour Party or say you think the government has done something right, then you a an vil naazi tory scumbag who doesn't deserve to breathe. The scary thing is most of these people work in the public sector and I would call them pen minded in other contexts.
Much better at PB.com where you generally have people from all sides discussing in civil fashion.
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Nope it was an Andy Burnham personal vote, if Labour had taken my advice in 2015 and picked Burnham instead of Corbyn we might well be heading for a hung parliament, I can see Burnham winning Nuneaton, Chorley and Thurrock, I cannot see Corbyn doing so
Yes he took some areas of Manchester which will definitely vote Tory shortly.
Burnham polls above his party, Corbyn polls below his. The Northwest will see heavy Labour losses to the Tories under Corbyn, if Burnham was Labour leader Labour would probably be making gains in the North West
I'm not so sure. If Burnham were Labour leader the campaign would have focused on his record in government and on the spending promises of his manifesto. These could easily have turned out to be right targets to attack with the result a repeat of 2015 except the Tories hoover up all the UKIP voters and Labour stands still.
We will never know but that sounds equally plausible.
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
We have a divided society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had a Client State public sector living off the money that an ever more attacked private sector uses to feed their children and survive into old age. When a divisive vote to leave the EU becomes a stay in in all but name. Where innovation and drive to obtain a better life is subsumed under an Equality of outcome (as opposed to opportunity) statist system. Where instead of our schools driving to produce educated children who have a shot in a global market place, education remains a Comprehensive "Producer Capture" "NHS For Education" churning out mediocrity whilst pretending with devalued qualifications there is improvement (NHS by the way 30th Equal, worse than Ireland, Spain & Slovenia amongst others)
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government (You could stop there) as their hearts and sensibilities loathe the very nation they are being elected to represent and have not missed a single chance to support those who would wish us harm, and as they don't like the electorate wish to change them through unlimited economic migration.
Her last insult was to a grouping that outvoted us by over double our next EU partners, who allowed the UK representation at under 2.5% in the initiation of legislation in the EU Commission, at under 4% under QMV at the EU Council & Commissioner level; and under 9.5% in a Potemkin parliament when we represented 12.5% of its population and 17% of its economic capacity. Whose Courts who treated our laws and our heritage with utter contempt by ruling against us 77.1% of the time. Who treated our leaders with contempt when we begged them to understand our problem. And who subsequently treat us with so much contempt that they don't want to live as friends & trading partners but want monies from us that looks like a long distance phone number for Pago Pago, a requirement that their laws usurp our own in the form of ECJ primacy in perpetuity because they consider UK law worthless, combined with a commitment to expend our lives for them whilst they laugh at demands that they spend money to protect themselves (Spain 0.9% GDP, Ireland 0.5% etc).
That's my facebook in a nutshell - I think the discussion on here is far more civil. Particularly I have to say the Labour posters.
Yes I have to agree. I'm not really thane on Facebook politics where if you say anything to criticise the Labour Party or say you think the government has done something right, then you a an vil naazi tory scumbag who doesn't deserve to breathe. The scary thing is most of these people work in the public sector and I would call them pen minded in other contexts.
Much better at PB.com where you generally have people from all sides discussing in civil fashion.
Excellent typo (if it was!) Public sector bureaucrats are most definitely and unhelpfully "pen minded"
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
SCONs still up 11% on 2015 on that poll, SNP down 9%, SLAB up 1%
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
Ironically, unionist attempts at tactical voting may save a couple of SNP MPs if the voters mess it up.
Argyll and Bute strikes me as just such a seat. As does East Renfrewshire.
If we ignored all the polls and pretend they didn't exist for one moment you would think we're heading for a hung parliament, lets be honest.
Not sure why one would think that, it would then revert to your immediate bubble as to the only clue how it's going to go. The only bubble I've come across voting labour is twitter and fb. You would also have the local elections to help form a view. Without polls I think, rightly or wrongly the majority would assume Tory majority. Lack of polls would probably helped the lib Dems as people made their choice based on individual campaigning activity
Reminds me of certain people in my office during the EU ref...
I've just had a chat with a member of our team in the office. She was intending to vote Tory because of Brexit - having seen nothing of the campaign. Two minutes on the other things that bother her about society and she's now going to stay at home.
Morality works. People can see right and wrong when you point it out to them, because in their gut they know that much of what this government has been doing to the sick and disabled is wrong at a basic level.
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
What, because the whole of the UK press is at all times 100% behind the Daily Mail's agenda and goes out of its way to give the Mail a clear run? Numpty.
Reminds me of certain people in my office during the EU ref...
I've just had a chat with a member of our team in the office. She was intending to vote Tory because of Brexit - having seen nothing of the campaign. Two minutes on the other things that bother her about society and she's now going to stay at home.
Morality works. People can see right and wrong when you point it out to them, because in their gut they know that much of what this government has been doing to the sick and disabled is wrong at a basic level.
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
Abbott was being discussed by my colleague this morning. Firmed up her Tory VI I think.
DA is unwell
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
I think she is unwell. She is 63. If a relative of mine deteriorated from the way she used to be on the Abbott and Portillo show to the way she is now, I'd be wanting some neurological testing done.
If she's not unwell she is spectacularly incompetent. Her performance last night was reminiscent of someone who had bluffed their way into a senior management role and is in their first board meeting with no clue about anything and trying to wing it, badly.
It reminded me very strongly of me in an undergraduate tutorial, with a combination of a bad hangover and being still drunk/stoned from last night, trying to disguise the fact that I hadn't even looked at the primary sources the tutorial was meant to be about, never mind anything else.
Should have taken my approach to philosophy at Southampton Uni. Drink my grant, drink the fledgling student loan, drink the overdraft. Miss most lecture and all tutorials and skip out with a Desmond. Present Head of Department with a four pack of Guinness and and bottle of Jamesons and leave with him and the department secretary (who typed up all my dissertations from handwritten at a knock down price) laughing and shaking their heads in bemusement.
Was watching a rerun of the 2015 BBC election coverage this morning to get an idea of exactly when Battersea and Nuneaton were called.
I do fear that we may see some 'interesting exchanges' during the actual declarations, especially from the Momentum supporters. I think back to the Putney 1997 declaration which threatened to get out of hand, and feel we may see a fair more of that this time round!
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
We have a divided society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had a Client State public sector living off the money that an ever more attacked private sector uses to feed their children and survive into old age. When a divisive vote to leave the EU becomes a stay in in all but name. Where innovation and drive to obtain a better life is subsumed under an Equality of outcome (as opposed to opportunity) statist system. Where instead of our schools driving to produce educated children who have a shot in a global market place, education remains a Comprehensive "Producer Capture" "NHS For Education" churning out mediocrity whilst pretending with devalued qualifications there is improvement (NHS by the way 30th Equal, worse than Ireland, Spain & Slovenia amongst others)
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government (You could stop there) as their hearts and sensibilities loathe the very nation they are being elected to represent and have not missed a single chance to support those who would wish us harm, and as they don't like the electorate wish to change them through unlimited economic migration.
Her last insult was to a grouping that outvoted us by over double our next EU partners, who allowed the UK representation at under 2.5% in the initiation of legislation in the EU Commission, at under 4% under QMV at the EU Council & Commissioner level; and under 9.5% in a Potemkin parliament when we represented 12.5% of its population and 17% of its economic capacity. Whose Courts who treated our laws and our heritage with utter contempt by ruling against us 77.1% of the time. Who treated our leaders with contempt when we begged them to understand our problem. And who subsequently treat us with so much contempt that they don't want to live as friends & trading partners but want monies from us that looks like a long distance phone number for Pago Pago, a requirement that their laws usurp our own in the form of ECJ primacy in perpetuity because they consider UK law worthless, combined with a commitment to expend our lives for them whilst they laugh at demands that they spend money to protect themselves (Spain 0.9% GDP, Ireland 0.5% etc).
I'm not surprised that Stephen did this. He was a Tory councillor before he defected to us and then got elected as a Labour councillor. We knew he was quitting to join the army. That he has defected back to the Tories isn't a shock to anyone who knows him.
That's my facebook in a nutshell - I think the discussion on here is far more civil. Particularly I have to say the Labour posters.
Yes I have to agree. I'm not really thane on Facebook politics where if you say anything to criticise the Labour Party or say you think the government has done something right, then you a an vil naazi tory scumbag who doesn't deserve to breathe. The scary thing is most of these people work in the public sector and I would call them pen minded in other contexts.
Much better at PB.com where you generally have people from all sides discussing in civil fashion.
Excellent typo (if it was!) Public sector bureaucrats are most definitely and unhelpfully "pen minded"
Did anyone expect the Andy Burnham landslide? At the time we attributed it to his previously unnoticed personal popularity, but what if it was a harbinger of a swing to Labour nationwide?
Umm but then Street won the Midlands for the Cons...
At a time when the Conservatives were posting 20% leads in national polling, at a time when all the political debate was focused on Brexit and next to nothing else. A month is a long time in politics. Street wouldn't win now.
More to the point, Burnham's exceptional performance seems to me to be indicative that electors are prepared to vote for Labour candidates whose outlook they emphathise with irrespective of the antics of the national leadership (Sion Simon in the West Mids wasn't a widely recognised figure by contrast). That could be a pointer to a lot of sitting Labour MPs posting similar resilient performances, being well known at the local level, although it won't help Labour gain seats back off the Tories.
For those wondering what's happening in Qatar, it's not just a cut of diplomatic links with the rest of the GCC, it's a full economic blockade affecting airlines and ships. Expat shops in Doha are already out of most imported foods, which come through UAE. Qatar Airways are having to route all flights to Doha in from the North, avoiding Saudi, Bahrain and UAE airspace.
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
Ironically, unionist attempts at tactical voting may save a couple of SNP MPs if the voters mess it up.
Look at Holyrood elections last year. It was remarkable how the electors in each constituency chose an SNP challenger and stuck to it.
Moray: Conservatives +18%, LD & Lab down Edinburgh West: LD +15%, Con & LD down Highlands & Islands: Con +10% Fife NE: LD +14% Argyll & Bute: LD +14% Edinburgh South: Con +17% (LD down 16%!)
Reminds me of certain people in my office during the EU ref...
I've just had a chat with a member of our team in the office. She was intending to vote Tory because of Brexit - having seen nothing of the campaign. Two minutes on the other things that bother her about society and she's now going to stay at home.
Morality works. People can see right and wrong when you point it out to them, because in their gut they know that much of what this government has been doing to the sick and disabled is wrong at a basic level.
tory voters don't know the difference between right or wrong. if they did know the difference, they wouldn't be a tory anymore.
tories believe in a 2-tier system. They want a 2 tier education system (private/state); they want a 2 tier health system (private/public) they want a 2 tier benefit system (pensioners/unemployed).
The sole aim of existence of the tory party is to reduce competition to the status quo and maintain control of the establishment. Most industries in our country are full of private school kids; the media and politics especially.
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
SCONs still up 11% on 2015 on that poll, SNP down 9%, SLAB up 1%
When assessing the SCON performance 2015 was a record low - c.17-18% is their natural support level.
Cutting spending is almost off the table now. None of the parties are talking about it, the public has had enough, and the upward pressures on pensions, health, social care and education are significant. Obviously there'll still be constraints on most departments, but total public spending is not going to go down.
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
Unfortunately we are still living far beyond our means and there is no prospect of us doing anything about it until it is too late. Things like making sure corporations pay their taxes properly are necessary but only in terms of removing the distraction and proving that the underlying problem cannot be solved that way. Raising taxes will not work long term because eventually you run into Maggie's old adage and run out of other people's money. In the meantime people get more and more wedded to the idea that the 'Government' will always provide all these services. It is simply fantasy and the sooner we face up to that the better.
"Why is turnout weighting having a bigger effect now than it did in 2015? One reason is that many pollsters are applying more aggressive procedures than they did in 2015, with the aim of producing implied turnout in their samples that is closer to what it will actually be on election day. While there is a logic to this approach it seems, in effect, to rely on getting the turnout probabilities wrong in order to correct for over-representation of likely voters in the weighted samples."
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
What, because the whole of the UK press is at all times 100% behind the Daily Mail's agenda and goes out of its way to give the Mail a clear run? Numpty.
The Sun and the Daily Mail being by far the highest circulation print media? You do find such stories in the likes of the Guardian and the Indy, but who notices? Pretty pathetic to try and start a barney on here, numpty.
Its compare and contrast. Everyone knew Corbyn would be destroyed on national security because of what he said. But in practice its MayBe being destroyed on this subject because of what she's done and what her manifesto says she will continue to do.
There are actions backing up the talk of panic from CCHQ. For example people were going to be diverted from previously regarded safe south london seats on polling day to more marginal ones.. this has now been abandoned.
Comments
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2016/12/05/bbc-question-time-fake-audiences/
Tory target seats
- Oldham East/Saddleworth - Another labour seat where the vote has never got above 20k
- Heywood/Middleton - UKIP got 32.2% of the vote 15k votes, tories only 19%
- Worsley/South Eccles - Labour have never got above 20k votes in last 3 elections.
- Bury South.
- Stalybridge/Hyde
Electoral Calculus has them all safe labour.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_nwest.html
Election forecast has them all lean labour.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Con_seat_gains.html
Someone is wrong.
Definitely supporting Mrs May this time around.
https://www.ft.com/content/e61ce174-ea94-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de
And supported Mr Cameron in 2015. And according to Wikipedia, they recommended the Conservatives in 2010 too.
We need to cut spending properly otherwise we will go bankrupt.
(My view is that Scotland is likely to play out pretty much the same as Holyrood in 2016, but with the SNP doing slightly worse, and the Conservative somewhat better.)
Can I come back to you by teatime? I was hoping to stake it on some tasty longer shots but if nothing reveals itself id be happy to go a fiver at evens on a head to head. I'll confirm by 5 if that is OK with you?
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/more-than-130-imams-refuse-to-perform-islamic-burials-for-manchester-and-london
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-sure-workmates-will-vote-labour-after-saying-theyre-scum-otherwise-20170606128892
Think shes got the shits.
Or is Shit
And Andy Street's genuine humility is in start contrast to the Conservative General Election campaign. If they'd approached it with the same tone perhaps they wouldn't be in this position now.
In short, pollsters might almost as well not bother. I pay a lot more attention to canvassing reports from certain reliable sources on here than I do to polls, despite the small size of a canvasser's data sets and his/her absolutely huge and admitted inbuilt bias.
Instead of getting on with Brexit, the deficit and running the country generally, the Government has taken time out to impose an unnecessary election on the public so as to fluff up its majority.
If this comes back to bite it, it can hardly blame the Opposition.
Leaning towards a tory win 376-400 seats at 11/4 and to cover 7/1 400-425
You know peak oil? It's peak oil demand you need to worry about, not peak supply.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/871975403279314944
Mr. Owls, you're saying Abbott's got a bad case of the Trots?
Such polling may be very good for other purposes: e.g. brand recognition, where five or ten percentage points does not matter too much. But they do matter in elections.
I'm unsure we can even detect a reliable trend in the polls for this election: the data just seems too unreliable, both during the campaign and before. It's all noise.
But I might well be wrong, and I guess we'll discover the truth on Friday morning ...
- Some here are betting on the assumption that canvass reports are to be preferred to opinion polls, and they're seizing on canvass reports that support their instincts while ignoring reports that don't. They might be right but historically it's a risky basis for punting
- Yes, no reason for committee rooms not to report how it's going
- Survation on the one hand and ICM on the other both seem to have made surprising assumptions this time.
- My personal guess is a Tory lead of about 7% and some seat-swapping. The biggest surprises may be in Scotland, where the amount of vote-switching seems very high as unionists try to work out who to vote for.
I would complain to them dirctly if I were you, see what they say.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872010793394503680
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872011398808784897
Tesla are about to open a dealership in Dubai, where petrol is 50 cents a litre.
That's just the points you chose to focus on, ignoring the many other parallels you chose to ignore.
What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don't you know that you can count me out
Don't you know it's gonna be
All right, all right, all right
You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We're doing what we can
But if you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don't you know it's gonna be
All right, all right, all right
You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better free you mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right
Songwriters: John Lennon / Paul Mccartney
Revolution lyrics © Sony/ATV Music Publishing LLC
https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/871715910050095105
https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/871749956725616643
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
The above linked story is the lead item on the front page of the SJ yet nowhere to be seen on the DT, the Graun etc. There is also this
Travel agencies contacted by The Straits Times have not received any requests to postpone or cancel trips to London.
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporeans-going-ahead-with-trips-to-london
< shrug >
They have to reason to vote for may; just project fear.
Much better at PB.com where you generally have people from all sides discussing in civil fashion.
We will never know but that sounds equally plausible.
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government (You could stop there) as their hearts and sensibilities loathe the very nation they are being elected to represent and have not missed a single chance to support those who would wish us harm, and as they don't like the electorate wish to change them through unlimited economic migration.
Her last insult was to a grouping that outvoted us by over double our next EU partners, who allowed the UK representation at under 2.5% in the initiation of legislation in the EU Commission, at under 4% under QMV at the EU Council & Commissioner level; and under 9.5% in a Potemkin parliament when we represented 12.5% of its population and 17% of its economic capacity. Whose Courts who treated our laws and our heritage with utter contempt by ruling against us 77.1% of the time. Who treated our leaders with contempt when we begged them to understand our problem. And who subsequently treat us with so much contempt that they don't want to live as friends & trading partners but want monies from us that looks like a long distance phone number for Pago Pago, a requirement that their laws usurp our own in the form of ECJ primacy in perpetuity because they consider UK law worthless, combined with a commitment to expend our lives for them whilst they laugh at demands that they spend money to protect themselves (Spain 0.9% GDP, Ireland 0.5% etc).
Public sector bureaucrats are most definitely and unhelpfully "pen minded"
Morality works. People can see right and wrong when you point it out to them, because in their gut they know that much of what this government has been doing to the sick and disabled is wrong at a basic level.
I do fear that we may see some 'interesting exchanges' during the actual declarations, especially from the Momentum supporters. I think back to the Putney 1997 declaration which threatened to get out of hand, and feel we may see a fair more of that this time round!
More to the point, Burnham's exceptional performance seems to me to be indicative that electors are prepared to vote for Labour candidates whose outlook they emphathise with irrespective of the antics of the national leadership (Sion Simon in the West Mids wasn't a widely recognised figure by contrast). That could be a pointer to a lot of sitting Labour MPs posting similar resilient performances, being well known at the local level, although it won't help Labour gain seats back off the Tories.
http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/uae-and-saudi-arabia-cut-ties-with-qatar--latest-updates
Moray: Conservatives +18%, LD & Lab down
Edinburgh West: LD +15%, Con & LD down
Highlands & Islands: Con +10%
Fife NE: LD +14%
Argyll & Bute: LD +14%
Edinburgh South: Con +17% (LD down 16%!)
tories believe in a 2-tier system. They want a 2 tier education system (private/state); they want a 2 tier health system (private/public) they want a 2 tier benefit system (pensioners/unemployed).
The sole aim of existence of the tory party is to reduce competition to the status quo and maintain control of the establishment. Most industries in our country are full of private school kids; the media and politics especially.
You will notice Tezza was in EN&L yesterday. The Tories really think they can take it
Favourite anecdote from there. Someone on Twitter said they had never seen a Tory on their street in Leith. The candidate replied "I was your postie!"
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/patrick-sturgis/general-election-polling_b_16953510.html?1496664273&-ukThe Waugh Zone 060617
The key paragraph:
"Why is turnout weighting having a bigger effect now than it did in 2015? One reason is that many pollsters are applying more aggressive procedures than they did in 2015, with the aim of producing implied turnout in their samples that is closer to what it will actually be on election day. While there is a logic to this approach it seems, in effect, to rely on getting the turnout probabilities wrong in order to correct for over-representation of likely voters in the weighted samples."