'These switchers represent a new generation of shy Tories, located deep inside Labour’s core vote. They are embarrassed at voting Tory, sufficiently so to deny their intent to friends, families and pollsters. Some of the older Labour officials and campaigners have reported familiar doorstep cadences from 1992 – “It’s in the eyes,” one said to me. One last point is worth noting in judging what is happening on the ground. The Tories do not look like a party that thinks Labour is threatening a range of their seats in England, which is what the polls suggest. Based on what Mark Textor said after the 2015 election, we know something of what they are doing. Large scale nightly polling, targeted at specific seats, with questioning framed as per the quote above. At this stage in the campaign, postal votes – which are have been sampled over the past 5 days, giving them an idea of actual vote performance – will also be factored into the mix.' http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...
"The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."
That said postals looked awful for this seat.
Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
Well it was something along the lines of unite official had called for loads of help in that seat on the back of postal vote returns. It could be based just on the number of them.
That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...
"The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."
That said postals looked awful for this seat.
Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
Well it was something along the lines of unite official had called for loads of help in that seat on the back of postal vote returns.
Ah, that was much earlier this morning. I thought that tweet was regarding Ealing Central and Acton?
That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...
"The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."
That said postals looked awful for this seat.
Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
Well it was something along the lines of unite official had called for loads of help in that seat on the back of postal vote returns. It could be based just on the number of them.
That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...
"The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."
That said postals looked awful for this seat.
Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
Well it was something along the lines of unite official had called for loads of help in that seat on the back of postal vote returns.
Ah, that was much earlier this morning. I thought that tweet was regarding Ealing Central and Acton?
That labour uncut article is at odds with that tweet earlier today...
"The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult."
That said postals looked awful for this seat.
Ooo, are they sneaking a look at postal votes? Naughty!
Well it was something along the lines of unite official had called for loads of help in that seat on the back of postal vote returns. It could be based just on the number of them.
Crosby is overrated. The decision to make it about May vs Corbyn early on was a strategic disaster.
Yes, in so far that it was a very high risk strategy in an election in which there was no need to take high risks. Personalising the election around May in particular was risky in that she was still a relatively unknown quantity and thus there was a risk that people might come to change their views on her, given that political honeymoons always come to the end.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
One interesting snippet from that Labour uncut piece:
But since the rise in the polls, Uncut has heard various stories about Labour candidates and campaigners scouring their electoral rolls to identify households with voters under 25 – whether they live in Labour wards or not, whether they or their families have a history of backing Labour or not.
The feedback has been that in the overwhelming majority of cases, this pool of voters is neither sizable enough to make a difference nor are the canvass returns from these targeted efforts tallying with the level of rise that the polls are suggesting.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
That's a couple of posts now re postals - one below but also one right at the end of the last thread.
Both posts encouraging for Con - if correct!
Reporting details of postal votes before 10pm on polling day is actually illegal, I think. Labour MP Kerry McCarthy got into trouble in either 2015 or 2010 for doing it IIRC.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...
Once you've voted Tory once, you are tainted for life.
That's a couple of posts now re postals - one below but also one right at the end of the last thread.
Both posts encouraging for Con - if correct!
Reporting details of postal votes before 10pm on polling day is actually illegal, I think. Labour MP Kerry McCarthy got into trouble in either 2015 or 2010 for doing it IIRC.
I know.
Just to confirm - I haven't seen any postal votes and haven't reported anything.
I'm just noting posts made by others.
EDIT: I've actually seen one - my 92 year old Mum's. I won't say how she voted but her vote won't be a surprise given her demographic.
That's a couple of posts now re postals - one below but also one right at the end of the last thread.
Both posts encouraging for Con - if correct!
Reporting details of postal votes before 10pm on polling day is actually illegal, I think. Labour MP Kerry McCarthy got into trouble in either 2015 or 2010 for doing it IIRC.
I know.
Just to confirm - I haven't seen any postal votes and haven't reported anything.
I'm just noting posts made by others.
Yeah, I think someone posting their own first-hand report here would be a big no-no. Not sure about repeating someone else's tweet.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Really? I always thought - given your moniker, and most of your comments - that you were blue through and through.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
That is if it's true "there is no great surge in reality". It may be very real, and canvass returns are not picking up on it. We shall see in 72 hours.....
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
That is if it's true "there is no great surge in reality". It may be very real, and canvass returns are not picking up on it. We shall see in 72 hours.....
Not for lack of trying, if the Labour Uncut article is correct.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
Possibly.
Or it could be that ~20% of people actually want JezPM, and another ~20% don't believe the polls and see the election as a chance to give the PM a free kicking.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Really? I always thought - given your moniker, and most of your comments - that you were blue through and through.
Is absolutely true for GE. In part due to various seats I have lived in the past eg safe tory seat and never voting for the sitting mp (and other variations of seat / party combos).
This time my vote counts and I am not "relaxed" about a possible potential government.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
That is if it's true "there is no great surge in reality". It may be very real, and canvass returns are not picking up on it. We shall see in 72 hours.....
Oh absolutely. But where are the Labour workers crowing about the surge, about the new recruits, about the huge number of extra vote pledges. The "surge" polling is saying that for every 3 voters they had at the start of the campaign, they have added an extra voter. Really? Wouldn't we be hearing that from multiple sources?
"1.9 Ballot papers will be kept face down throughout a postal vote opening session. Anyone attending an opening session must not attempt to see how individual ballot papers have been marked. It follows therefore that keeping a tally of how ballot papers have been marked is not allowed."
I haven't checked the actual law. Seems that noticing how people have voted without attempting to notice is fine, even if that would require X-ray vision. But a person who can achieve such a feat mustn't keep a tally, even in their head.
"1.9 Ballot papers will be kept face down throughout a postal vote opening session. Anyone attending an opening session must not attempt to see how individual ballot papers have been marked. It follows therefore that keeping a tally of how ballot papers have been marked is not allowed."
I haven't checked the actual law. Seems that noticing how people have voted without attempting to notice is fine, even if that would require X-ray vision. But a person who can achieve such a feat mustn't keep a tally, even in their head.
I think you can read the address, and then go off your canvas return.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
Possibly.
Or it could be that the voters don't believe the polls and see the election as a chance to give the PM a free kicking.
7 years of austerity. Init.
Only one problem with that argument, a lot of people are now recovering from a decade of austerity and trying to get back on their feet financially in the current economic climate. Do you really think that they now want to risk all that all over again by voting for Corbyn and his fantasy economics manifesto just to give the Conservatives a post 'austerity' kicking as we head for Brexit? Lets not forget, no Labour Leader has ever let Corbyn near a Shadow Cabinet post in his thirty year political career until he was elected by the membership!
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
lib dems wiped out would be hilarious . how could they then justify their presence in HOL ?
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
lib dems wiped out would be hilarious . how could they then justify their presence in HOL ?
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
As a novice to this, do I have to take a photo and mail it in somewhere in order to redeem?
This is potentially the perfect storm for Labour - there is no great surge in reality and they are already deeply worried - and then knife-edge polls drive out the voters in record numbers to prevent a Corbyn win.
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
i reckon result will be 48% C 31% L 6% LD 2% UKIP 1% GRN giving 395 tories 177 Labour 0 lib dem 140 tory majority
I still think that is a possible outcome. Not yet likely, but really quite possible.
lib dems wiped out would be hilarious . how could they then justify their presence in HOL ?
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
As a novice to this, do I have to take a photo and mail it in somewhere in order to redeem?
Once you cross over to the dark blue side, there is no going back. It will make you feel like a real rebel..
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
As a novice to this, do I have to take a photo and mail it in somewhere in order to redeem?
There is no need. Just keep an ear out for noise in the pantry.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
As a novice to this, do I have to take a photo and mail it in somewhere in order to redeem?
Once you cross over to the dark blue side, there is no going back. It will make you feel like a real rebel..
In all seriousness whatever happens this GE has been a disaster IMO. Mayism is very confused and some terrible policies, corbynism magic money forest has been established and looks like lots of kids buy it and lib dem orange-bookery crushed.
Just caught the SkyNews paper review with Tory boy Pierce and Labour spokesperson Maguire, and they were discussing the rising Gin market in the UK. As someone who discovered they liked a gin and tonic at eighteen when no one else drank it in my age group (found other drinks and mixers too sweet). I am now loving the amazing range of Scottish produced Gins that have hit the market in recent years, my sister and I have had great fun sampling the various new gins! And I know I am probable slightly biased becaused its produced just a few miles from where I grew up in Speyside, but Caorunn Gin is my favourite.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
That, or it'll further enthuse the Tory base. The Sunday Mail poll probably helped hugely on that front.
Well if the Tories were still 20 points clear in the polls I wouldn't be voting for them. My local tory candidate is crap (and I don't much of Mrs may).
But now you have no choice but to vote Tory... muhahahaha
Going to be first time...do I get a free baby to eat?
Once you have gone through with the diabolical act. Not before.
As a novice to this, do I have to take a photo and mail it in somewhere in order to redeem?
Once you cross over to the dark blue side, there is no going back. It will make you feel like a real rebel..
In all seriousness whatever happens this GE has been a disaster IMO. Mayism is very confused and some terrible policies, corbynism magic money forest has been established and looks like lots of kids buy it and lib dem orange-bookery crushed.
You need to go back and have a look at my comments on these issues, I was an early critic of May's leadership style and policies on here. Grammar schools and foxhunting are just toxic with many voters outside the Tory heartlands that Cameron managed to reach out to between 2005-2015. My views are well documented and drew some criticism in the early days of her honeymoon from the many Brexit 'anti Cameron' posters here. But I have absolutely no doubts that Jeremy Corbyn would be a complete disaster as PM.
If that's accurate, it's likely the entire Labour surge has been a mirage.
Hell, most of the campaign has probably achieved nothing. Tories started on +8/10/12/whatever, and end on the same.
The Tories started the campaign with a 20% lead . If the Tories do win a big majority , Corbyn's critics can attack him for having agreed to the electio and claim that any Labour losses have been self inflicted.
I think there's an element of bluffing going on. I'm cautious about reporting canvassing after the debacle last time, but the problems reported by Atwal in Labour Uncut are not at all what I'm either experiencing or hearing in the East Midlands, which typically moves with the national averages. The Labour vote has been pretty solid since the start, with about 1 in 10 shaky because of doubts about Corbyn. That element has virtually disappeared and lots of LibDems, Greens and increasingly UKIP and a few Tories have come over.
I wouldn't claim any special insight based on that, but this is a betting site and I wouldn't put much weight on the Uncut piece either, since I think Atwal is basing it on inufficient evidence - beware of betting on what you want to hear. The two rumours of good Tory votes in the postals sound more significant, but the canvass stuff is flimsy. Similarly, trying to deduce facts from where the leaders are speaking is getting overinterpreted - some comments are making a lot of Corbyn speaking in safe Labour seats in the North, but equally he's spoken at target Tory seats in the Midlan - he's making four appearance a day this week.
If the weather is really unpleasant on Thursday, one issue may be relative enthussiasm. My impression is that it's in this order:
1. Middle-class and young Labour 2. Working-class Tories 3. Middle-class Tories 4. Working-class and elderly Labour
which could mean that the demography of the seat affects the swing.
I think there's an element of bluffing going on. I'm cautious about reporting canvassing after the debacle last time, but the problems reported by Atwal in Labour Uncut are not at all what I'm either experiencing or hearing in the East Midlands, which typically moves with the national averages. The Labour vote has been pretty solid since the start, with about 1 in 10 shaky because of doubts about Corbyn. That element has virtually disappeared and lots of LibDems, Greens and increasingly UKIP and a few Tories have come over.
I wouldn't claim any special insight based on that, but this is a betting site and I wouldn't put much weight on the Uncut piece either, since I think Atwal is basing it on inufficient evidence - beware of betting on what you want to hear. The two rumours of good Tory votes in the postals sound more significant, but the canvass stuff is flimsy. Similarly, trying to deduce facts from where the leaders are speaking is getting overinterpreted - some comments are making a lot of Corbyn speaking in safe Labour seats in the North, but equally he's spoken at target Tory seats in the Midlan - he's making four appearance a day this week.
If the weather is really unpleasant on Thursday, one issue may be relative enthussiasm. My impression is that it's in this order:
1. Middle-class and young Labour 2. Working-class Tories 3. Middle-class Tories 4. Working-class and elderly Labour
which could mean that the demography of the seat affects the swing.
I am a long time fan and follower of Labour Uncut's Atul Hatwal who I regard as a very astute and well informed Labour political commentator. And surely like the polling companies, the various political parties internal polling/targetting will only be judged a success or failure following the GE result?
Before the Survation poll, this place was all relaxed and predicting Con majority/landslide.
After the Survation poll, this place is wobbly again.
All this from a pollster who showed a 1pt lead on the weekend anyway.
More seriously it's because bedwetters like me keep expecting the labour surge to stop at some point, and it hasn't universally. I'm not built for this crap.
Surely it has stopped? Polls which earlier predicted low single digit Tory leads are still predicting low single digit Tory leads - as are the low double digit predictors. What hasn't happened is the Labour surge gone into reverse.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Assuming they are actually registered to vote!
Given we now have the first figures on the electorate it is unlikely that young voters are on anything more than 70-75% registered at most, so even if every single registered youth turns out they are still going to be well outnumbered by oldies.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Assuming they are actually registered to vote!
Given we now have the first figures on the electorate it is unlikely that young voters are on anything more than 70-75% registered at most, so even if every single registered youth turns out they are still going to be well outnumbered by oldies.
Do you have a link to the figures? I've only seen new registration numbers, rather than total numbers.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Assuming they are actually registered to vote!
Given we now have the first figures on the electorate it is unlikely that young voters are on anything more than 70-75% registered at most, so even if every single registered youth turns out they are still going to be well outnumbered by oldies.
Do you have a link to the figures? I've only seen new registration numbers, rather than total numbers.
From Ian Jones at the Press Association: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/871738407415840769 Unfortunately he keeps comparing to the 2016 register rather than the numbers in the pre-IER 2015 GE register which would be more useful. In 2015 the electorate was 46.4m.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Assuming they are actually registered to vote!
Given we now have the first figures on the electorate it is unlikely that young voters are on anything more than 70-75% registered at most, so even if every single registered youth turns out they are still going to be well outnumbered by oldies.
Do you have a link to the figures? I've only seen new registration numbers, rather than total numbers.
From Ian Jones at the Press Association: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/871738407415840769 Unfortunately he keeps comparing to the 2016 register rather than the numbers in the pre-IER 2015 GE register which would be more useful. In 2015 the electorate was 46.4m.
OK, thanks! so the numbers are barely up at all on 2015? Doesn't bode well for the surge.
I think there's an element of bluffing going on. I'm cautious about reporting canvassing after the debacle last time, but the problems reported by Atwal in Labour Uncut are not at all what I'm either experiencing or hearing in the East Midlands, which typically moves with the national averages. The Labour vote has been pretty solid since the start, with about 1 in 10 shaky because of doubts about Corbyn. That element has virtually disappeared and lots of LibDems, Greens and increasingly UKIP and a few Tories have come over.
I wouldn't claim any special insight based on that, but this is a betting site and I wouldn't put much weight on the Uncut piece either, since I think Atwal is basing it on inufficient evidence - beware of betting on what you want to hear. The two rumours of good Tory votes in the postals sound more significant, but the canvass stuff is flimsy. Similarly, trying to deduce facts from where the leaders are speaking is getting overinterpreted - some comments are making a lot of Corbyn speaking in safe Labour seats in the North, but equally he's spoken at target Tory seats in the Midlan - he's making four appearance a day this week.
If the weather is really unpleasant on Thursday, one issue may be relative enthussiasm. My impression is that it's in this order:
1. Middle-class and young Labour 2. Working-class Tories 3. Middle-class Tories 4. Working-class and elderly Labour
which could mean that the demography of the seat affects the swing.
You've been canvassing in Nottingham. Exactly the sort of place I would expect to see a Corbyn surge. Not representatiive of the Don Valley's or Bishop Auckland's of this election.
You've been canvassing in Nottingham. Exactly the sort of place I would expect to see a Corbyn surge. Not representatiive of the Don Valley's or Bishop Auckland's of this election.
Excellent - exactly where the votes aren't needed.
Trump led in the final IBID TIPP and LA Times national polls and in the final Trafalgar Group Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania polls. Although he has got close with Survation tonight Corbyn has yet to lead in any poll this campaign
If Labour go in front in a poll on Tuesday or Wednesday, or even if a poll shows the two parties neck and neck, the news is going to stick in a lot of minds. For some young people, that may make the difference between abstaining and voting Labour.
Assuming they are actually registered to vote!
Given we now have the first figures on the electorate it is unlikely that young voters are on anything more than 70-75% registered at most, so even if every single registered youth turns out they are still going to be well outnumbered by oldies.
Do you have a link to the figures? I've only seen new registration numbers, rather than total numbers.
From Ian Jones at the Press Association: https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/871738407415840769 Unfortunately he keeps comparing to the 2016 register rather than the numbers in the pre-IER 2015 GE register which would be more useful. In 2015 the electorate was 46.4m.
OK, thanks! so the numbers are barely up at all on 2015? Doesn't bode well for the surge.
The only saving grace for Labour is you might imagine that the people who went to the effort to register are more likely to turn out. So a higher percentage of 18-24s that are registered should turn out compared to the days when they were on the register by default. I doubt it will be near 100% of them though.
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
@nunu indeed.. the number of cabinet ministers TP has received in Don Valley suggests they are still in an offensive mode. That, or TSE put in a good word about him
Good morning from Colombo, SL. No real change in my forecast of a Tory majority. However my range is still huge - anything between 25 and 100. Betting on this GE has been tricky...
President Trump criticized Khan on Sunday after the mayor told Londoners that an increased police presence on the streets was "no cause for alarm." Trump misleadingly suggested that Khan was downplaying the act of terrorism, which saw a van crash into pedestrians on London Bridge before three men exited the vehicle and attacked several people in nearby Borough Market.
After the mayor's office contextualized Khan's remarks, Trump went on the offensive again, tweeting on Monday that the explanation was a "pathetic excuse."
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
Doorstep intelligence does point that way. The only caveat is that younger voters can be very hard to reach that way. All this nonsense about postal vote sampling is b*llsh*t; there is no sampling.
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
Doorstep intelligence does point that way. The only caveat is that younger voters can be very hard to reach that way. All this nonsense about postal vote sampling is b*llsh*t; there is no sampling.
On young voters - the article does touch on that.
On 'sampling'... I've heard otherwise on here. But who knows if they are telling the truth.
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
All this nonsense about postal vote sampling is b*llsh*t; there is no sampling.
I there is its highly illegal - what it might be is noting that Tory Mrs Smith has returned a postal ballot (content unknown) while Labour Mr Jones hasn't......
Consolation for the sheet washers of the bed wetters:
My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.
Any thoughts from anyone about turnout for Thu, by the sound of it, a lot of registered in the last 6 weeks, so potentially that could lower the actual rate. I have put money on it being above 59% which seems easy money to me. I am expecting a turnout of around 64-68% overall The weather forecast is not that great (W midlands a lot of rain), showers in the south, do folk think the weather is such a factor in this day and age?
Any thoughts from anyone about turnout for Thu, by the sound of it, a lot of registered in the last 6 weeks, so potentially that could lower the actual rate. I have put money on it being above 59% which seems easy money to me. I am expecting a turnout of around 64-68% overall The weather forecast is not that great (W midlands a lot of rain), showers in the south, do folk think the weather is such a factor in this day and age?
Weather isn't thought to have much of an impact, unless it's truly dreadful I guess.
Nigel Marriot predicts SCon will gain: Aberdeen South, Angus, Berwickshire R+S, Dumfries & Galloway, Moray, West Aberdeenshire, while SLab will gain East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh N & Leith,
Any thoughts from anyone about turnout for Thu, by the sound of it, a lot of registered in the last 6 weeks, so potentially that could lower the actual rate. I have put money on it being above 59% which seems easy money to me. I am expecting a turnout of around 64-68% overall The weather forecast is not that great (W midlands a lot of rain), showers in the south, do folk think the weather is such a factor in this day and age?
Weather isn't thought to have much of an impact, unless it's truly dreadful I guess.
IER will make the turnout seem higher, by reducing the number of outdated and duplicate entries on the register. I would expect the turnout of younger voters to be higher than in 2015, given that Corbyn has clearly engaged with at least some young people. Labour, SNP, LibDems and Greens all have larger memberships able to focus their ground game on dragging up turnout in their key marginals. And the Corbyn v May narrative and narrowing gap in the polls has made what seemed a boring election into an interesting contest.
For these reasons I would expect a turnout up a few per cent from 2015. I will plump for 69%.
What counter arguments do we have? None of the leaders or campaign offerings are that great (but when are they ever; elections that set people alight like 1997 are rare). The weather will be poor. Most experts think the winner is already known. People are pissed off with politics (not new, and was true in 2015 and 16).
Carlsholton > Con Gain Ceredigon > hold Leeds North West > Lab gain North Norfolk > Con Gain Orkney & Shetland > Hold Sheffield Hallam > Lab Gain Southport > Con Gain Westmorland & Lonsdale > Con Gain
On topic: reporting something as notoriously fickle and inaccurate as an opinion poll to one decimal point is laughable. It's rather like the nice lady who does the weather on telly saying that temperatures will reach 27.095°C in London on Wednesday afternoon at 4:54pm. In scientific parlance, this is called "a load of bollocks."
Meanwhile, in the real world, canvass returns predict a "nuclear winter for Labour" across England, except in London.
"Just over two weeks ago I posted a projection of huge losses for Labour – over 90 seats – based on dozens of conversations with activists, candidates and officials who cumulatively had sight of tens of thousands of canvass returns.
Since then, I’ve continued those conversations as Labour has apparently surged in the polls.
The result is a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside the capital.
The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult.
But in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and the North East, any improvement has been nugatory.
One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week described it as a “nuclear winter for Labour.”
The doorstep returns outside of London are saying that Labour is still running substantially below its 2015 vote, that Ukip votes are transferring in huge numbers to the Tories with losses in prospect of the mid-60s to mid-90s and a lingering possibility that the situation could be even worse come Thursday."
Carlsholton > Con Gain Ceredigon > hold Leeds North West > Lab gain North Norfolk > Con Gain Orkney & Shetland > Hold Sheffield Hallam > Lab Gain Southport > Con Gain Westmorland & Lonsdale > Con Gain
Two seats.....
On the bright side, it’s more than enough for a leadership contest….!
The remainder of the piece is worth reading. It goes into what might be wrong with the polls at some length, but the essence of this is a return of the Shy Tory Problem, this time in the Labour heartland, coupled with the more familiar argument that Labour's VI is being buoyed up by young people who probably won't turn out, and are liable to do so in the wrong places and in insufficient numbers even if they do. The former chimes, broadly speaking, with my opinion, as influenced by detailed focus group reports suggesting the extent of embarrassment, even shame, exhibited by Lab-Con switchers in culturally solid Labour areas; the latter is in line with long-established historical precedent.
Beyond that, the piece also provides further evidence that the Ukip vote is collapsing and moving very largely to the Conservatives; and reminds us that only one leader is campaigning routinely in the core territory of the other. Theresa May has recently been to visit Don Valley, Penistone & Stockbridge, and Bradford South. Not much sign of Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in the likes of Shrewsbury & Atcham, Harlow and Basingstoke.
I think that this election will almost certainly be a more extreme version of 2015, with the Labour and Conservative votes further diverging in terms of efficiency. Labour's vote share is likely to increase, but this will come mainly from even bigger super-majorities stacked up in the urban cores; and from consolidation of the middle-class leftist vote in Southern England, which will merely create an awful lot of stronger, but still distant and useless, second place finishes. Meanwhile, whilst it now appears that Welsh Labour will hold up better than we might have thought prior to the local elections, Labour is heading for a beating - and possibly a severe one - in the Midlands and North, as the right-leaning vote consolidates and chunks of the old core Labour vote either sit on their hands or defect to the Tories.
I'm still content to stick with my initial guesstimate of a Conservative majority of 124. Polls open in two days, one hour and thirteen minutes. Tick, tock...
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
All this nonsense about postal vote sampling is b*llsh*t; there is no sampling.
I there is its highly illegal - what it might be is noting that Tory Mrs Smith has returned a postal ballot (content unknown) while Labour Mr Jones hasn't......
I think anyone taking notes like that at a verification would be pulled aside, given the legal restrictions requiring secrecy. The agents are only there to observe and check the process is being managed correctly. Given that the agent is looking at postal vote returns across a whole constituency, where there are probably about 10,000 registered postal voters, you'd have to be a genius with a photographic memory to make anything of seeing a few names.
People *love* having and sharing 'inside information' and these stories about PV "sampling" circulate every election. Most of us have been to a normal verification and know how easy it is to get a good sample. But you rarely meet anyone who has been to PV verification and never someone who says that they were there and actually saw X, Y, Z. It's always just rumour and Chinese whispers.
Lab Losses Alyn & Deeside > Con Ashfield > Con Barrow and Furness > Con Bassetlaw > Con Batley and Spen > Con Birmingham Northfield > Con Bishop Auckland > Con Blackpool South > Con Bolton NE > Con Bridgend > Con Chorley > Con City of Chester > Con Clwyd South > Con Copeland > Con Delyn > Con Dewsbury > Con Don Valley > Con Eltham > Con Enfield North > Con Gedling > Con Great Grimsby > Con Halifax > Con Hartlepool > Con Hyndburn > Con Ilford North > Con Mansfield > Con Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland > Con Newcastle under Lyme > Con North East Derbyshire > Con Oldham East and Saddleworth > Con Penistone and Stocksbridge > Con Scunthorpe > Con Stockton North > Con StokeonTrent Central > Con StokeonTrent North > Con StokeonTrent South > Con Wakefield > Con Walsall North > Con Wolverhampton North East > Con Wolverhampton South West > Con Workington > Con Wrexham > Con
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
Whilst I have no time whatsoever for Diane Abbott, I couldn't help but feel there was a degree of direct targeting against her in her latest interview on Sky, which I personally found quite unpleasant.
Con losses: Battersea > Lab Bedford > Lab Brighton Kemptown > Lab Bristol NW > Lab Cardiff North > Lab Finchley & Golders Green > Lab Gower > Lab Reading East > Lab Stroud > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green?!?!
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
The word coming out of a few LD campaigns has been a bit better these last few days. I think people start to focus on tactical arguments later in the campaign, as the moment of truth arrives and local campaigning has an impact. And there are some signs of this in the polls (YouGov moved the LibDems up three seats in its model yesterday).
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
Whilst I have no time whatsoever for Diane Abbott, I couldn't help but feel there was a degree of direct targeting against her in her latest interview on Sky, which I personally found quite unpleasant.
Why? she wants to be the Home Secretary, she doesn't know jack shit. Every interview just makes this clearer by the day.
Hearing that Uncut called Labour Leave areas and GE 2015 right makes me even more inclined to believe them now. They picked up on movements that the polls did not twice in the recent past. I do not see why this is not the case now.
Comments
One last point is worth noting in judging what is happening on the ground.
The Tories do not look like a party that thinks Labour is threatening a range of their seats in England, which is what the polls suggest.
Based on what Mark Textor said after the 2015 election, we know something of what they are doing. Large scale nightly polling, targeted at specific seats, with questioning framed as per the quote above. At this stage in the campaign, postal votes – which are have been sampled over the past 5 days, giving them an idea of actual vote performance – will also be factored into the mix.'
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
Both posts encouraging for Con - if correct!
But since the rise in the polls, Uncut has heard various stories about Labour candidates and campaigners scouring their electoral rolls to identify households with voters under 25 – whether they live in Labour wards or not, whether they or their families have a history of backing Labour or not.
The feedback has been that in the overwhelming majority of cases, this pool of voters is neither sizable enough to make a difference nor are the canvass returns from these targeted efforts tallying with the level of rise that the polls are suggesting.
Points to terrible internal polling in key seats
Just to confirm - I haven't seen any postal votes and haven't reported anything.
I'm just noting posts made by others.
EDIT: I've actually seen one - my 92 year old Mum's. I won't say how she voted but her vote won't be a surprise given her demographic.
Mike, we need to stop agreeing with each other, we are supposed to be poles apart politically!
It could yet be a massive landslide win for May.
Or it could be that ~20% of people actually want JezPM, and another ~20% don't believe the polls and see the election as a chance to give the PM a free kicking.
7 years of austerity. Init.
This time my vote counts and I am not "relaxed" about a possible potential government.
"1.9 Ballot papers will be kept face down throughout a postal vote opening session. Anyone attending an opening session must not attempt to see how individual ballot papers have been marked. It follows therefore that keeping a tally of how ballot papers have been marked is not allowed."
I haven't checked the actual law. Seems that noticing how people have voted without attempting to notice is fine, even if that would require X-ray vision. But a person who can achieve such a feat mustn't keep a tally, even in their head.
I wouldn't claim any special insight based on that, but this is a betting site and I wouldn't put much weight on the Uncut piece either, since I think Atwal is basing it on inufficient evidence - beware of betting on what you want to hear. The two rumours of good Tory votes in the postals sound more significant, but the canvass stuff is flimsy. Similarly, trying to deduce facts from where the leaders are speaking is getting overinterpreted - some comments are making a lot of Corbyn speaking in safe Labour seats in the North, but equally he's spoken at target Tory seats in the Midlan - he's making four appearance a day this week.
If the weather is really unpleasant on Thursday, one issue may be relative enthussiasm. My impression is that it's in this order:
1. Middle-class and young Labour
2. Working-class Tories
3. Middle-class Tories
4. Working-class and elderly Labour
which could mean that the demography of the seat affects the swing.
https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/871738407415840769
Unfortunately he keeps comparing to the 2016 register rather than the numbers in the pre-IER 2015 GE register which would be more useful. In 2015 the electorate was 46.4m.
1) Atwal has had good intelligence before. He was right in 2015 and 2016 about bad postal votes for labour and Leave. He is not saying it's all bad, London is looking good except essex part of London but Tories are gaining 60-90% of the ukip vote in the north
2) Thre tories are not acting in a defensive way, as Casino_Royale and other tory canvassers have reported the Messina data has been very good.
There is something to be said of people who have had sound report in the past.
We have not seen Tory activists ask for help in their targets based on postal vote sampling on twitter, same cannot be said of Labour. They are worried about Ealing Central & Acton which should really be in the bag for them. That is very telling.
https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/870616296714579968
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/871924826419724288
Though one does have to wonder how many punters are up & about like OGH at 4am.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/05/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-rule-third-independence-referendum-lost/
https://twitter.com/andlawton/status/871663086222049280
https://twitter.com/andlawton/status/871668970788720640
http://time.com/4806708/london-mayor-trump-state-visit-cancel-twitter
President Trump criticized Khan on Sunday after the mayor told Londoners that an increased police presence on the streets was "no cause for alarm." Trump misleadingly suggested that Khan was downplaying the act of terrorism, which saw a van crash into pedestrians on London Bridge before three men exited the vehicle and attacked several people in nearby Borough Market.
After the mayor's office contextualized Khan's remarks, Trump went on the offensive again, tweeting on Monday that the explanation was a "pathetic excuse."
On 'sampling'... I've heard otherwise on here. But who knows if they are telling the truth.
We know it has happened in the past - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/29/labour-candidate-apologises-twitter-vote
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4574822/Diane-Abbott-embarrasses-new-TV-interview.html
My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-1-latest-prediction/
Has a chunk of NE Scotland turning blue....
I am expecting a turnout of around 64-68% overall The weather forecast is not that great (W midlands a lot of rain), showers in the south, do folk think the weather is such a factor in this day and age?
For these reasons I would expect a turnout up a few per cent from 2015. I will plump for 69%.
What counter arguments do we have? None of the leaders or campaign offerings are that great (but when are they ever; elections that set people alight like 1997 are rare). The weather will be poor. Most experts think the winner is already known. People are pissed off with politics (not new, and was true in 2015 and 16).
Carlsholton > Con Gain
Ceredigon > hold
Leeds North West > Lab gain
North Norfolk > Con Gain
Orkney & Shetland > Hold
Sheffield Hallam > Lab Gain
Southport > Con Gain
Westmorland & Lonsdale > Con Gain
Two seats.....
Con Maj 104 (+2)
Another Lab seat bites the dust.
................................................
Might some PBers impartially comment on the Farron/Sturgeon QT appearances. Thanks.
Con losses:
Battersea > Lab
Bedford > Lab
Brighton Kemptown > Lab
Bristol NW > Lab
Cardiff North > Lab
Finchley & Golders Green > Lab
Gower > Lab
Reading East > Lab
Stroud > Lab
Meanwhile, in the real world, canvass returns predict a "nuclear winter for Labour" across England, except in London.
"Just over two weeks ago I posted a projection of huge losses for Labour – over 90 seats – based on dozens of conversations with activists, candidates and officials who cumulatively had sight of tens of thousands of canvass returns.
Since then, I’ve continued those conversations as Labour has apparently surged in the polls.
The result is a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside the capital.
The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult.
But in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and the North East, any improvement has been nugatory.
One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week described it as a “nuclear winter for Labour.”
The doorstep returns outside of London are saying that Labour is still running substantially below its 2015 vote, that Ukip votes are transferring in huge numbers to the Tories with losses in prospect of the mid-60s to mid-90s and a lingering possibility that the situation could be even worse come Thursday."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
(TBC)
The remainder of the piece is worth reading. It goes into what might be wrong with the polls at some length, but the essence of this is a return of the Shy Tory Problem, this time in the Labour heartland, coupled with the more familiar argument that Labour's VI is being buoyed up by young people who probably won't turn out, and are liable to do so in the wrong places and in insufficient numbers even if they do. The former chimes, broadly speaking, with my opinion, as influenced by detailed focus group reports suggesting the extent of embarrassment, even shame, exhibited by Lab-Con switchers in culturally solid Labour areas; the latter is in line with long-established historical precedent.
Beyond that, the piece also provides further evidence that the Ukip vote is collapsing and moving very largely to the Conservatives; and reminds us that only one leader is campaigning routinely in the core territory of the other. Theresa May has recently been to visit Don Valley, Penistone & Stockbridge, and Bradford South. Not much sign of Jeremy Corbyn campaigning in the likes of Shrewsbury & Atcham, Harlow and Basingstoke.
I think that this election will almost certainly be a more extreme version of 2015, with the Labour and Conservative votes further diverging in terms of efficiency. Labour's vote share is likely to increase, but this will come mainly from even bigger super-majorities stacked up in the urban cores; and from consolidation of the middle-class leftist vote in Southern England, which will merely create an awful lot of stronger, but still distant and useless, second place finishes. Meanwhile, whilst it now appears that Welsh Labour will hold up better than we might have thought prior to the local elections, Labour is heading for a beating - and possibly a severe one - in the Midlands and North, as the right-leaning vote consolidates and chunks of the old core Labour vote either sit on their hands or defect to the Tories.
I'm still content to stick with my initial guesstimate of a Conservative majority of 124. Polls open in two days, one hour and thirteen minutes. Tick, tock...
People *love* having and sharing 'inside information' and these stories about PV "sampling" circulate every election. Most of us have been to a normal verification and know how easy it is to get a good sample. But you rarely meet anyone who has been to PV verification and never someone who says that they were there and actually saw X, Y, Z. It's always just rumour and Chinese whispers.
Lab Losses
Alyn & Deeside > Con
Ashfield > Con
Barrow and Furness > Con
Bassetlaw > Con
Batley and Spen > Con
Birmingham Northfield > Con
Bishop Auckland > Con
Blackpool South > Con
Bolton NE > Con
Bridgend > Con
Chorley > Con
City of Chester > Con
Clwyd South > Con
Copeland > Con
Delyn > Con
Dewsbury > Con
Don Valley > Con
Eltham > Con
Enfield North > Con
Gedling > Con
Great Grimsby > Con
Halifax > Con
Hartlepool > Con
Hyndburn > Con
Ilford North > Con
Mansfield > Con
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland > Con
Newcastle under Lyme > Con
North East Derbyshire > Con
Oldham East and Saddleworth > Con
Penistone and Stocksbridge > Con
Scunthorpe > Con
Stockton North > Con
StokeonTrent Central > Con
StokeonTrent North > Con
StokeonTrent South > Con
Wakefield > Con
Walsall North > Con
Wolverhampton North East > Con
Wolverhampton South West > Con
Workington > Con
Wrexham > Con
We are talking of the party of Jeremy "friend of Hamas" Corbyn and Ken "the Jews" Livingstone here.
Also, my husband (who is not over-optimistic about Tory prospects) is originally from Llanelli, which is not far from Gower, and reckons that the Conservatives will retain it.
On your Lib Dem list, it would be one of the biggest shocks of the night if Farron were to get the boot, but I agree that all of the other Lib Dems in England need to watch their backs - and at least two seats (Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport) are virtually certain to go. But I still think that they might make a net gain overall on the night.
Westmorland is safe; the talk is just a repeat of Clegg 2015. I think Norfolk is still evens. Agree Carshalton is lost, not least because one of the former LibDem cllrs is standing as an Indy with a very anti-Brake campaign. I agree Southport and Leeds look challenging. On the upside, Twickenham looks good, Kingston possibly evens, and Richmond is in play also. I'd hope for an unexpected gain somewhere, maybe Oxford W, Eastbourne or Wells. In Scotland two or three looks achievable. Altogether that would point towards about ten.
I heartily condole on your condition.