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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    Keep up, TSE.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,074

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    And my Labour friends are no more responsible for the actions of Jeremy Corbyn...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,451

    I hope that someone is videoing the other side so that we can watch it on catch-up next week.

    Jews are to Israel what Muslims are to ISIS.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,828

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    A good day to....
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,257

    Little Vox Pop from my leave Tory dad just now:
    Gove is a knob. May looks better option. Liked by both sides. She would eat Corbyn alive

    fairly accurate I think!

    It clearly has to be May. But who knows what the 150,000 Tory members will do.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,189
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    Alternatively, Gove withdraws when it is reduced to May vs Gove. All very unlikely though.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,828
    edited June 2016

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    It's not even quite that. The EU as such (Juncker and his merry men) won't do any serious negotiation, but they don't ultimately matter much anyway - they are bureaucrats, they don't get to decide what treaty 27+1 states decide to sign. But there's absolutely nothing to stop British ambassadors having chats with their host governments, and British ministers doing the same with their continenatl counterparts.
    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Alistair said:
    I would Larf and Larf if Andrea Leadsom got the nod from the party faithful. :D
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Who remembers "Robot Wars"?

    BREXITEERS, STAND BY....

    3...

    2...

    1...

    NEGOTIATE!
    Robot Wars is actually coming back to TV
    http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/bbc-unveils-house-bots-robot-wars-reboot/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,189
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    It's not even quite that. The EU as such (Juncker and his merry men) won't do any serious negotiation, but they don't ultimately matter much anyway - they are bureaucrats, they don't get to decide what treaty 27+1 states decide to sign. But there's absolutely nothing to stop British ambassadors having chats with their host governments, and British ministers doing the same with their continenatl counterparts.
    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?
    Obviously the UK gets a say on the treaty it is about to sign :p
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Can we speculate on possible campaign slogans?

    May the force be with her

    The rest wobble, Crabb sticks

    Fox yeah!

    Gove for it

    Lead the Som-shine in
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,288

    (((Rob Ford))) ‏@robfordmancs 50m50 minutes ago
    Boris engineered the largest constitutional crisis in post-war history but won't even put his name forward to clear it up?

    What. A. Prat.

    Boris is like Lord North meets an abdication crisis
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TOPPING said:

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    A good day to....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/748413976967516160?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TOPPING said:

    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?

    We get to negotiate with the other 27 (strictly, with the other 27 via the EU).

    In practice it's a rerun of Cameron's negotiation, on pretty much the same issues, with the same people. The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better. Alternatively, we can decide how much loss of access to the Single Market we are prepared to trade for less freedom of movement.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,988
    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,288

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    Keep up, TSE.
    I can't. So much is going on, and I have a date Saturday night.

    Not the ideal week to write threads in advance.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Iain Dale thinks Boris supporters mostly shift to Leadsom, presumably there's a chunk of them that are now anyone-but-gove.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,828

    Justed checked news websites and an hour is a long time in politics currently. Trying to make sense of it. May is obviously clear favourite now though I hope Gove wins. He's one of those rare politicians who shows a genuine interest in the person he's talking to and he clearly has the big vision of where he'd like the UK to be in the future. However, I fear his stint at Education will count against him.

    Plus also, not sure the public is in the mood for a genuine anything in a politician atm. We have had three months of bollocks from all sides and I would imagine no one wants to stop now, either the politicians or the voters.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,847

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
    Yet we were told up until recently Fox might back May. Apparently they're good friends.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,257
    Sourby comes out for May by sounds of it. Radio 4.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    TOPPING said:

    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"

    A good day to....
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/748413976967516160?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    And yet Labour still managed to make the main news as a Jewish Labour MP walks out in tears during the presentation meeting.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,825

    TOPPING said:

    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?

    We get to negotiate with the other 27 (strictly, with the other 27 via the EU).

    In practice it's a rerun of Cameron's negotiation, on pretty much the same issues, with the same people. The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better. Alternatively, we can decide how much loss of access to the Single Market we are prepared to trade for less freedom of movement.
    We also have the chance to fix our benefits system so its contributor based so benefit migration isn't worth it.. That will actually fix a lot of the issue now there is a reason to actually do it...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TOPPING said:

    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?

    We get to negotiate with the other 27 (strictly, with the other 27 via the EU).

    In practice it's a rerun of Cameron's negotiation, on pretty much the same issues, with the same people. The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better. Alternatively, we can decide how much loss of access to the Single Market we are prepared to trade for less freedom of movement.
    The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better.

    You're assuming that Cameron did a good job on the negotiation.

    As previously posted my intelligence was that he didn't put the effort in.

    I think that there is a deal that can be done on freedom of movement - I don't think @Max 's proposal is enough, but if you can come up with a solution to that issue then I don't see any other fundamental hurdles.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Having watched the Tories deliver the most clinical political assassination in modern history, Labour are about to stop and think about it until next week

    FFS
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    RobD said:

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.

    Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?

    or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
    ____________________________________________
    To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.
    Very few regular posters on here claim to have "inside" special sources that predict election outcomes or political actions. Anyone who plays that game should be challenged when they are proven wrong.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
    Yet we were told up until recently Fox might back May. Apparently they're good friends.
    I thought that was a trap myself - Fox backs May then swaps sides to knife her.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,189
    Scott_P said:

    Having watched the Tories deliver the most clinical political assassination in modern history, Labour are about to stop and think about it until next week

    FFS

    If so, perfect time for a May coronation and a vote of no confidence in the current government? :D
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Jobabob said:

    John_N4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    He never goes all the way?
    Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.

    There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?

    Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.

    Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".

    That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.

    The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.

    So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)

    A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.

    Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.

    I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.

    Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?

    Either of them could win.
    She is indeed a Type 1 diabetic and I believe a teetotaller. Not sure why either matter, or if they are connected, but there it is.
    You could trust her to drive you home from a party then!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,828
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    It's not even quite that. The EU as such (Juncker and his merry men) won't do any serious negotiation, but they don't ultimately matter much anyway - they are bureaucrats, they don't get to decide what treaty 27+1 states decide to sign. But there's absolutely nothing to stop British ambassadors having chats with their host governments, and British ministers doing the same with their continenatl counterparts.
    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?
    Obviously the UK gets a say on the treaty it is about to sign :p
    Hmm sounds absolutely logical, but I thought that it was in the hands of the 27. If we don't sign, then = no treaty and presumably WTO.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:
    Sam Coates from the Times. - You’d think a lobby hack would have seen it all…
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,189

    RobD said:

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.

    Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?

    or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
    ____________________________________________
    To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.
    Very few regular posters on here claim to have "inside" special sources that predict election outcomes or political actions. Anyone who plays that game should be challenged when they are proven wrong.
    Yep, fair enough to be skeptical, but pointing out it is not necessarily the fault of his source.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Any markets on when Boris will stand down as an MP?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,451

    Sourby comes out for May by sounds of it. Radio 4.

    Ugh, might have to reconsider. Theresa should have Soubry locked away for the next two months.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
    Yet we were told up until recently Fox might back May. Apparently they're good friends.
    He was going to until she said no to migration controls is the story. May is the unity candidate who will deliver EEA membership.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,096
    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,825
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Jobabob said:

    John_N4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    He never goes all the way?
    Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.

    There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?

    Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.

    Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".

    That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.

    The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.

    So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)

    A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.

    Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.

    I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.

    Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?

    Either of them could win.
    She is indeed a Type 1 diabetic and I believe a teetotaller. Not sure why either matter, or if they are connected, but there it is.
    Theresa MAY a teetotaller? That is serious. One lesson my father drummed into me early and hard, be very, very careful around people who do not take a drink. Over the years I have found the guvnor's advice to be generally sound.
  • Options
    MikeK said:

    Alistair said:
    I would Larf and Larf if Andrea Leadsom got the nod from the party faithful. :D
    Can you please inform us as to why?
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
    Best practice manifest.
  • Options
    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I've said many times that I'm not a Boris fan and always thought his buffoonery and lack of discipline would catch up with him and this has partly played out. However, he won that Leave campaign with considerable help from his two excellent female colleagues, Andrea Leadsom and Gisela Stuart. Whilst Michael Gove was very good on the QT debate, he has piggy-backed on Boris's popularity to a certain extent and his back-stabbing today will be his undoing. This may be politics but it is really nasty stuff and the public don't like it. He also has a gobby journalist as a wife and this has/will prove to be unhelpful, as proved already.

    My feeling is the final two will be Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom.


  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is why they will never be a party of competent government

    @bbclaurak: Source close to Angela Eagle, 'jeremy still has time to do the right thing ' Eagle will stand but won't announce at 3 today
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,288
    Dylan Sharpe

    Impressive of #wato to find Liam Fox's supporter
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
    smart man.

    I do like the use of (b)(ii) as well.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile

    @JohnRentoul: In normal times, Corbyn's comparison of Israeli govt to Isis would lead news for days & force his resignation.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    She's also apparently opposed to HS2. Another plus!

    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/29/conservative-leadership-runners-riders-andrea-leadsom
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Scott_P said:

    Having watched the Tories deliver the most clinical political assassination in modern history, Labour are about to stop and think about it until next week

    FFS

    In fairness they're probably waiting for a quiet news day. Could be a while that.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    No-one has ever heard of her, beyond a few political anoraks and some obsessive Leavers.

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Ah, but you deal with money men, Mr. Charles, I had only the Civil Service to worry about.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    Just watched her on Sky - warm, optimistic and seems so nice with it. She refused to diss Boris or Gove and seemed to really mean it.

    I'd be happy with her or Gove.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?

    We get to negotiate with the other 27 (strictly, with the other 27 via the EU).

    In practice it's a rerun of Cameron's negotiation, on pretty much the same issues, with the same people. The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better. Alternatively, we can decide how much loss of access to the Single Market we are prepared to trade for less freedom of movement.
    The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better.
    You're assuming that Cameron did a good job on the negotiation.
    As previously posted my intelligence was that he didn't put the effort in.
    I think that there is a deal that can be done on freedom of movement - I don't think @Max 's proposal is enough, but if you can come up with a solution to that issue then I don't see any other fundamental hurdles.
    I agree. The simple change of having a dedicated person full time at the head of this rather than the part time meddling of Cameron/Osborne/Llewwelyn/etc does improve the prospects of a better outcome.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Just now remembering that tweet about Gove staying behind at the last cabinet meeting - has this perhaps been all a Cameron organised coronation? It's certainly one way to avoid all that market panic, get the leadership done and dusted quickly.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: A Remain minister on the Boris U-turn: "It shows there is some justice in the world."
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
    Yet we were told up until recently Fox might back May. Apparently they're good friends.
    I thought that was a trap myself - Fox backs May then swaps sides to knife her.
    Fox just wants a cabinet role - He stands to increase his bargaining chip.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Alistair said:
    I would Larf and Larf if Andrea Leadsom got the nod from the party faithful. :D
    Can you please inform us as to why?
    Yes. Because I find the whole situation funny, and when something is funny I Larf. Capisco!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,633
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Sourby comes out for May by sounds of it. Radio 4.

    I'd call that a negative for Ms May.

  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Jobabob said:



    She is indeed a Type 1 diabetic and I believe a teetotaller. Not sure why either matter, or if they are connected, but there it is.

    Type 1 diabetics can produce dangerously high levels of blood sugar when stressed.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: MP: "The most extraordinary act of treachery. Michael will never win this elxn. When ppl realise what he's done, he'll never win anything"
  • Options
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    27 states decide, of course.

    The UK, having A50-ed, doesn't get a final say, I thought?

    We get to negotiate with the other 27 (strictly, with the other 27 via the EU).

    In practice it's a rerun of Cameron's negotiation, on pretty much the same issues, with the same people. The result if we stay in the Single Market obviously won't be better. Alternatively, we can decide how much loss of access to the Single Market we are prepared to trade for less freedom of movement.
    We also have the chance to fix our benefits system so its contributor based so benefit migration isn't worth it.. That will actually fix a lot of the issue now there is a reason to actually do it...
    A very good point. So far have any candidates endorsed this idea?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.


    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
    I like in the notes sections of Powerpoint presentations. Hardly anyone ever looks at those.
  • Options

    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.

    But Osborne would be far more depressing.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    No-one has ever heard of her, beyond a few political anoraks and some obsessive Leavers.

    nobody had heard of her until a few weeks ago, now she's been in the public eye and has won over a lot of leavers and remainers. she has an outstanding chance.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,225
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: MP: "The most extraordinary act of treachery. Michael will never win this elxn. When ppl realise what he's done, he'll never win anything"

    Funny, I heard earlier in the week from someone in the know that Gove is regarded by very many as a grade one sh1t whose elaborate facade of exquisite courtesy is just that. Well, today, everyone knows that.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    Having watched the Tories deliver the most clinical political assassination in modern history, Labour are about to stop and think about it until next week

    FFS


    They should try to grind Corbyn down Scott – it's the only way strategically they can remove far-left control of the party.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,138
    Brom said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    No-one has ever heard of her, beyond a few political anoraks and some obsessive Leavers.

    nobody had heard of her until a few weeks ago, now she's been in the public eye and has won over a lot of leavers and remainers. she has an outstanding chance.
    Won over alot of "remainers" ?!?!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.

    But Osborne would be far more depressing.
    Whoever wins, Mr Osborne has to be gone.

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Sourby comes out for May by sounds of it. Radio 4.


    May should mop up most of the europhile vote
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    Fox's vote will not go to May, more likely the Leavers Gove or Leadsom.
    Yet we were told up until recently Fox might back May. Apparently they're good friends.
    He was going to until she said no to migration controls is the story. May is the unity candidate who will deliver EEA membership.
    She will be popular with lots of centrist voters for doing so
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    I'll vote for anyone that refuses to give Osborne and Soubry cabinet positions.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,074

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    As a true believer in Leave, he might be happy to be Secretary of State for Brexit.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,558
    edited June 2016
    Labour Party...making the England Football team look like the Brazilian team of the 1970s.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Having watched the Tories deliver the most clinical political assassination in modern history, Labour are about to stop and think about it until next week

    FFS

    Tories want power and to achieve their objectives. Lefties like grumbling form the sidelines - they're a movement.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I'll vote for anyone that refuses to give Osborne and Soubry cabinet positions.

    I'm optimistic Soubry has fucked her career by being so close to Mr Cameron. Not sure anyone would touch her now.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.

    But Osborne would be far more depressing.
    Whoever wins, Mr Osborne has to be gone.

    He can't carry on as CoE. If he's genuinely ditched his pro-Remain stance for another job under a Post-Brexit PM, then let's see.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    JohnO said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: MP: "The most extraordinary act of treachery. Michael will never win this elxn. When ppl realise what he's done, he'll never win anything"

    Funny, I heard earlier in the week from someone in the know that Gove is regarded by very many as a grade one sh1t whose elaborate facade of exquisite courtesy is just that. Well, today, everyone knows that.
    Michael Gove has always struck me as a complete and utter sh*t. A friend was in contact with him on an educational policy issue before the 2010 election and Gove was as helpful as he could be. Then after the election, *click* - on to the autoresponder. But sh*ts can go far. I don't think he's photogenic enough to win the leadership contest, but he could get to No.11.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    I will say now that I very much hope May's diabetes isn't raised during the campaign. She was diagnosed with it relatively late in life and has learned to deal with it.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Brom said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    Just trying to think ahead - Fox isn't going to make it, does his vote go to May or Gove or Leadsom? If Leadsom goes out where do her votes go? Ditto Gove?

    Fox, Leadsom and Gove are committed principled Leavers.
    If she can get into the final two with Theresa I think Andrea Leadson could spring a surprise.

    There will be "hustings" TV debates, etc.... And Theresa doesn't really "do" charisma or charm.

    Andrea is sunny, positive but also sensible and she was on the LEAVE side. Just depends if she can make it into the last two.
    No-one has ever heard of her, beyond a few political anoraks and some obsessive Leavers.

    nobody had heard of her until a few weeks ago, now she's been in the public eye and has won over a lot of leavers and remainers. she has an outstanding chance.
    Won over alot of "remainers" ?!?!
    Yeah she really hasn't won over lots of Remainers. Not in any way
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Lovely rumour that Gove would keep Osborne as CoE

    Brexiterr heads exploding at the thought. Meanwhile, our scheduled market update...

    @PaulTOwen: AFP: The British pound spiked Thursday immediately after Boris Johnson said he will not stand to succeed Prime Minister David Cameron.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brom said:

    I'll vote for anyone that refuses to give Osborne and Soubry cabinet positions.

    I'm optimistic Soubry has fucked her career by being so close to Mr Cameron. Not sure anyone would touch her now.
    She's graceless, rude, vulgar and gobby. She makes Alan B'Stard look appealing.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,837
    edited June 2016
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.

    Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
    Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
    At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.

    One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
    Having blocked Boris, I think Gove might now withdraw in return for Secretary of State for Brexit under May. That leaves May versus Leadsom or possibly Crabb. They don't have a chance and could also withdraw. I can see this being a May coronation.
    No. I think Mr Gove is a true believer in Leave, and if he stands down it would be to support another Leave candidate. I think that means Leadsom.

    That said, Gove vs Leadsom would be my ideal final two.
    As a true believer in Leave, he might be happy to be Secretary of State for Brexit.
    Despite believing myself that Brexit is not heading for a happy ending, it is hard to see who other than Gove can do it?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,988
    Jobabob said:

    Can we speculate on possible campaign slogans?

    May the force be with her

    The rest wobble, Crabb sticks

    Fox yeah!

    Gove for it

    Lead the Som-shine in

    Want to bring back flogging? -Theresa May

    Come down with a great case of Crabb

    If you're less Brighton, more Hove, vote Gove

    Not another man dear - let's vote Andrea

    If we don't vote for Liam, we're foxed
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile

    @JohnRentoul: In normal times, Corbyn's comparison of Israeli govt to Isis would lead news for days & force his resignation.

    NOTHING will force him to resign, they need the metaphorical firing squad.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,979
    Jobabob said:

    I will say now that I very much hope May's diabetes isn't raised during the campaign. She was diagnosed with it relatively late in life and has learned to deal with it.

    Have there been any diabetic PMs?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
    A nice bland chapeau to a hanging paragraph with at least 4 levels of indentation and at least 10 sub-paragraphs with the nasty bit, at complete odds with the impression given in the chapeau, hidden in sub-paragraph 7, indentation 3.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.

    But Osborne would be far more depressing.
    Whoever wins, Mr Osborne has to be gone.

    He can't carry on as CoE. If he's genuinely ditched his pro-Remain stance for another job under a Post-Brexit PM, then let's see.
    Leading a fact finding mission into the frequency of the ebola virus in the polar bear population is a job for Mr Osborne I could support.

    Being the first Osborne in space, again a good next role.

    Nothing in HMG.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,058

    Jobabob said:

    Can we speculate on possible campaign slogans?

    May the force be with her

    The rest wobble, Crabb sticks

    Fox yeah!

    Gove for it

    Lead the Som-shine in

    Want to bring back flogging? -Theresa May

    Come down with a great case of Crabb

    If you're less Brighton, more Hove, vote Gove

    Not another man dear - let's vote Andrea

    If we don't vote for Liam, we're foxed

    Very good Lucky

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,288
    edited June 2016
    JohnO said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: MP: "The most extraordinary act of treachery. Michael will never win this elxn. When ppl realise what he's done, he'll never win anything"

    Funny, I heard earlier in the week from someone in the know that Gove is regarded by very many as a grade one sh1t whose elaborate facade of exquisite courtesy is just that. Well, today, everyone knows that.
    Well you know how I loathe treachery, I'm never going to be on Team Gove
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    PlatoSaid said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:



    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.

    Hidden within Appendix C is my usual approach... Make it 30 pages long and hide the core bits on pages C12, C17-22 and C26.
    I like in the notes sections of Powerpoint presentations. Hardly anyone ever looks at those.
    That always struck me as difficult to justify as and when the decision is challenged. It needs to be somewhere that they *should* have read
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    eekeek Posts: 25,825
    PlatoSaid said:



    I like in the notes sections of Powerpoint presentations. Hardly anyone ever looks at those.

    Only really works if sign off within the meeting is final - I've been caught out there before. You can get away with it as the boss, harder if dealing with external parties (even different departments).

    As such I now prefer piles of utterly boring waffle (get juniors to write it) and ensure the bits are hidden in the document somewhere..
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,988

    Rather depressing. Don't get me wrong, a billion times less depressing than Cameron and being in the EU. But still. Not a fan of May - no problem with her presentationally or in terms of work ethic, but very authoritarian tendencies.

    But Osborne would be far more depressing.
    That goes without saying.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,225
    Oh Anna is madder than that box of frogs (sic), loopily barking and all that, but still incomparably preferable to the Priti Patels of the party.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,558
    Scott_P said:
    House of Cards aint got s##t on this.
This discussion has been closed.