Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
The first is definitely happening, there's no realistic way for it to be stopped. The latter might be stopped however.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
How many people think that and how is it proven? Is it enough to be decisive? I doubt it. It might be in a year or two, but by then its too late.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
I assumed he meant a points based system for non-EU and freedom of movement for EU. Which is probably quite a good idea.
I've vaguely got this feeling that this model has been employed somewhere before...
Quite. Until recently, I used to give the "moderates" the benefit of the doubt, but no longer. If they were really concerned about Labour's electability, they would be reflecting on the fact that one of the key parts of their philosophy (pro-Europeanism) was just rejected by the country on Thursday, and coming to terms with the obvious fact that sticking with it will lose the .
I lost any respect for them last summer when months before the vote came in where already publicly stating that they will try to overthrow Corbyn as soon as possible.
In the beginning I was an Yvette Cooper supporter and their own actions forced me to support Corbyn in order to kick their buts, time and time again they are infuriating me so much that I simply want them expelled.
Those people have proved that they do not and should not belong to the Labour party.
I gave them the benefit of the doubt for a bit longer than that because, while I disagreed what what they did, I thought they had good intentions and were just doing what they thought was in the interests of getting Labour elected.
But no more. Their utter obsession with the EU, even after it's been shown that that obsession will lose Labour a huge chunk of their core vote, shows that the "moderates" simply have ideological obsessions of their own -- they would rather Labour lose on a Europhile platform than win on a Eurosceptic platform.
It is not so much enthusiasm for the EU, the coup is happening now because it had to be after the referendum, but it has been on the cards much longer. It could just as easily been over Trident or Syria.
The problem is not so much politics, as the complete ineffectiveness of Corbyn in everything he does.
Again though, saying "Corbyn is ineffective" is not the same as proving "someone else would be more effective than Corbyn".
It is not at all clear to me that Labour MPs who misread the public mood so badly on the EU (which is to say, pretty much every Labour MP bar Corbyn and his hardcore followers, plus a few mavericks like Stuart/Field/Hoey) have the political judgement to be effective leaders of a political party.
Liz Kendall was clear last summer that she wanted to reduce mygration.
@jennirsl: Hard not to conclude from Boris column that he's frightened by what electorate think they've voted for. https://t.co/cdhhIz8gFg
@ProfChalmers: Bonkers. "We'll keep everything except the legislation." What does he think creates it all? Candyfloss? Unicorns? https://t.co/H4FeXG4HE0
I said this before. All the talk in my bubble of London ABers (typically in consulting, FS, or advertising) is about delaying or abandoning investments, relocations, and potential opportunities abroad. I accept we represent a tiny fraction of the population, but we drive the economy. Any rebalancing away from a services-led, London-led economy is decades away. Or perhaps not now that we've decided to go full Pol Pot.
I think you may be overestimating the importance of London AB ers.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
I don't know about 3, but the rest seem correct.
How about SDP2? Do you think it might come to that?
@BBCPhilipSim: Is there any precedent here to make a weird buzzword for this latest vision, a la Reverse Greenland? A "double inverse Mesopotamia" perhaps?
Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
The first is definitely happening, there's no realistic way for it to be stopped. The latter might be stopped however.
Even if Boris thinks he could stop Brexit (which i doubt) he couldn't.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
Yes. He says "access to the single market", rather than part of.
But as you say, I'm sure this will be fleshed out in the week ahead.
Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
The first is definitely happening, there's no realistic way for it to be stopped. The latter might be stopped however.
I think it's far from obvious that the first will happen. If we can wait it out until October, both the UK and the EU will have moved on politically quite significantly.
A second referendum or the fall of the government are more likely before the new Tory PM will get chance to invoke Article 50.
Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
The first is definitely happening, there's no realistic way for it to be stopped. The latter might be stopped however.
Even if Boris thinks he could stop Brexit (which i doubt) he couldn't.
Indeed. I meant that of the things that can be stopped, Boris becoming leader is one.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
Indeed.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
Big_G on the other hand has switched from Remain to Leave.
What we're seeing is another Big Lie being peddled by the establishment and its creatures.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
I don't know about 3, but the rest seem correct.
How about SDP2? Do you think it might come to that?
We really don't know things will pan out.
Well, no, of course not; but if Corbyn is really going to dig his heels in, there may be nowhere else for them to go.
I said this before. All the talk in my bubble of London ABers (typically in consulting, FS, or advertising) is about delaying or abandoning investments, relocations, and potential opportunities abroad. I accept we represent a tiny fraction of the population, but we drive the economy. Any rebalancing away from a services-led, London-led economy is decades away. Or perhaps not now that we've decided to go full Pol Pot.
I think you may be overestimating the importance of London AB ers.
I wish I were. I'm an old fashioned, one nation Tory. I wish we really did have a northern powerhouse. But we don't.
EFTA really is the only sane option at the moment. We need something in place quickly, or face utter chaos if we're turfed out without single market access once Article 50 expires.
Glad you're keeping a cool head in these trying days.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
Indeed.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
Big_G on the other hand has switched from Remain to Leave.
What we're seeing is another Big Lie being peddled by the establishment and its creatures.
Once people have taken a big decision they tend to stick to it.
I'm not sure I'd call trying to arrange a second referendum a plot exactly. If it were to happen, and if it were to be a win for Remain (which is far from assured for all sorts of reasons) it'd be just as much an exercise in democracy.
If Remain or anyone else had wanted the question settled and unable to be called again, or with some sort of threshold for acceptance of the result, they should have put that in the Referendum Bill.
But I imagine the Mail knows this won't happen, it's about keeping Leavers from being complacent so no fool MP tries it (have any MPs suggested it yet? The LDs it was said are going to campaign to 'rejoin' which would seem to indicate giving up on preventing Leave, and David Lammy suggested just ignoring the result, but has anyone come out for a referendum rerun and explained why it should be so?)
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
Indeed.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
There was one yesterday, I forget the name. And definitely a few nervous and holding judgement for now.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
They are trying to build a fantasy land, where people didn't mean to vote that way, where Brexit won't happen anyway.
It's all in the 6 stages of grief.
First stage: Shock.
The Friday morning panic.
Second stage: Denial.
Parliament, PM, Sturgeon, Boris ect, will block it.
Third stage: Anger. "Let the whole country burn"
Fourth stage: Bargaining Maybe we could negotiate to stay afterall.
Fifth stage: Depression
Remainers going missing and getting drunk at posh wine bars.
Sixth stage: Acceptance.
No Remainer has reached this stage yet to my knowledge, I wonder how they will behave ?
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
The odds were pretty ridiculous for a while after the Nuneaton and Swindon results were announced 13 months ago. (Was it really just 13 months ago?)
A few comments on the Survation Independence polling.
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
I don't think there will be another Scottish referendum. The last one was in 2014. The unionists won.
Things have changes since then. What the scottish public is willing to risk may have changed.
Perhaps. But I don't think the UK government is going to let you find out.
@AdamWagner1: Aadd a few terrifics this could be a Donald Trump speech: WE ARE GOING TO GET A TERRIFIC DEAL, SERIOUSLY TERRIFIC https://t.co/LJBOYsA5lW
It was just a matter of time before there was going to be a Krakatoa eruption in British politics. Once the activities on 'that road' get out which I am working towards then we'll have another eruption, but perhaps on a Yellowstone super volcanic eruption scale.
Had a very large chuckle to myself when I heard that Mr Osborne is going to make a statement tomorrow morning to reassure the markets. You really couldn't make this up after what he said during the referendum campaign, and the promised £30bn cuts budget as a result of Brexit. Even Norman Lamont after Black Wednesday in 1992,and Denis Healey after the 1976 IMF Crisis had more credibility than Osborne has tomorrow morning. Anything the fool says will only make things worse tomorrow morning. When the curtain has fallen Mr Osborne, its time to get off the stage, and you should have got off the stage on Friday morning, not linger around like a bad smell.
I'm not sure I'd call trying to arrange a second referendum a plot exactly. If it were to happen, and if it were to be a win for Remain (which is far from assured for all sorts of reasons) it'd be just as much an exercise in democracy.
If Remain or anyone else had wanted the question settled and unable to be called again, or with some sort of threshold for acceptance of the result, they should have put that in the Referendum Bill.
But I imagine the Mail knows this won't happen, it's about keeping Leavers from being complacent so no fool MP tries it (have any MPs suggested it yet? The LDs it was said are going to campaign to 'rejoin' which would seem to indicate giving up on preventing Leave, and David Lammy suggested just ignoring the result, but has anyone come out for a referendum rerun and explained why it should be so?)
The only scenario I can see where this is a possibility is if the negotiations spin out until the economic damage has become obvious, the political mood has changed, maybe there's been an election in the meantime, and we reach the point where a clear majority is desperate to stay in. I originally thought this might be quite likely, but it does require the EU to still want us on board. All the early signs are that they have had enough of us rocking their boat and just want us ashore as soon as possible.
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
We are where we are Nick. Lets be honest, the moderates thought they had another 4 years before the next election. Now we're 3 months away from what could possibly be the most important general election any of us have faced, it focusses minds. Does the Labour party really want to go into it with a leader who is advocating a bigger Brexit than Boris?
Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
The first is definitely happening, there's no realistic way for it to be stopped. The latter might be stopped however.
I think it's far from obvious that the first will happen. If we can wait it out until October, both the UK and the EU will have moved on politically quite significantly.
A second referendum or the fall of the government are more likely before the new Tory PM will get chance to invoke Article 50.
'If' we can wait until October.
I just don't see how a GE will be called, given we essentially need the big two to agree to it, when they'd only do so if they each thought they would win. And how would a Remainer government emerge from it in any case, given Labour heartlands in the north were stronger for Leave than most Tory shires, so they cannot stand unified on a platform to remain? But the Tories won't be either as at least half their voters are for Leave and how many of the rest will try to overcome that?
As for a second referendum, on what grounds prior to article 50? Opinion polls showing Bremorse? 'Lies' of the campaigns which are the same as any manifesto promise 'lie'?
The only circumstance I can see a second referendum occurring would be in response to a new, improved offer from the EU, which would be so self defeating for them, showing their underbelly to every skeptic in Europe, that I cannot believe even they would be so foolish.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
They are trying to build a fantasy land, where people didn't mean to vote that way, where Brexit won't happen anyway.
It's all in the 6 stages of grief.
First stage: Shock.
The Friday morning panic.
Second stage: Denial.
Parliament, PM, Sturgeon, Boris ect, will block it.
Third stage: Anger. "Let the whole country burn"
Fourth stage: Bargaining Maybe we could negotiate to stay afterall.
Fifth stage: Depression
Remainers going missing and getting drunk at posh wine bars.
Sixth stage: Acceptance.
No Remainer has reached this stage yet to my knowledge, I wonder how they will behave ?
Goodnight.
I think both sides are going through the six stages, in that our side didn't expect to win either
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
What was nuts was when we had that run of polls showing Leave in the lead and it barely shifted the odds. I think the highest they got was 40% on the morning Jo Cox was killed.
I originally thought this might be quite likely, but it does require the EU to still want us on board. All the early signs are that they have had enough of us rocking their boat and just want us ashore as soon as possible.
A change of personnel will fix that, and will provide great optics for the UK populist press. Juncker probably won't last the rest of the week.
FTSE and DAX futures just over 1% off for tomorrow morning. Sterling trading in the GBPUSD 1.34's - should get a retest of the 1.3213 in fairly short order. 1.2960 offers the longer term support that I think will get challenged at some point this week.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
They accept that Labour members have no interest in removing the Tories from office and act accordingly, I guess. Maybe a new party, maybe leaving politics. But they have no choice but to act now. They are shadow cabinet ministers who have tried to make it work. It doesn't.
A few comments on the Survation Independence polling.
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
I don't think there will be another Scottish referendum. The last one was in 2014. The unionists won.
Things have changes since then. What the scottish public is willing to risk may have changed.
Perhaps. But I don't think the UK government is going to let you find out.
I would welcome that, although it is not in their hands. Technically of course it is, but Sturgeon really goes for it, as she looks like she is, there'll only be one winner this time.
Good night.
It'll all look better in the morning. Perhaps not tomorrow morning, but let's try to retain a bit of optimism for a couple of months at least.
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
Yes, if Corbyn survives this one then he is set fair for the election, whenever it comes, and you'll just have to see whether the North goes the way of Scotland, or not.
FTSE and DAX futures just over 1% off for tomorrow morning. Sterling trading in the GBPUSD 1.34's - should get a retest of the 1.3213 in fairly short order. 1.2960 offers the longer term support that I think will get challenged at some point this week.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
What was nuts was when we had that run of polls showing Leave in the lead and it barely shifted the odds. I think the highest they got was 40% on the morning Jo Cox was killed.
Leave was about an 80% chance strictly on the polling at one point.
Evening all. Bit of a busy weekend in the Westminster bubble, I see.
The predicted political chaos seems to have come a bit faster than predicted. The smart bet this weekend is surely John McDonnell for Labour leader (currently a few quid available at 10/1 on the 'fair, or 8/1 at the bookies), is it not?
The dumbest political bet on the planet as at now is David Miliband for Labour leader, at between 4/1 (!) and 10/1.
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
Yes, if Corbyn survives this one then he is set fair for the election, whenever it comes, and you'll just have to see whether the North goes the way of Scotland, or not.
Nick has made it very clear that he is not interested in Labour being in government. On that basis, if Labour loses more seats at the next election he won't be that bothered.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
I don't think it was much of a betting event, but Labour were still odds-on when the returning officer took to the stage at the Dunfermline by-election in 2006.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
I was short the Remain share at 55% on SpreadEx (which I pushed on here, as it was an almost zero risk bet), but you're right - the real value was on the straight Brexit bet.
Still, can't complain. SpreadEx has paid for my summer holiday.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
What was nuts was when we had that run of polls showing Leave in the lead and it barely shifted the odds. I think the highest they got was 40% on the morning Jo Cox was killed.
On Betfair the odds on Leave winning very briefly touched 15/1, at the maximum of post-poll remain optimism when Carswell, Farage and Boris were all falling over themselves to concede. Kudos to those on PB brave/informed enough to put money on at this stage. I didn't move over to Leave until the odds were back down to 2/1 and it was obvious (to everyone other than those who had offered up the other side of the bet) that leave couldn't lose. It was the closest I have ever seen in betting to free money, and of course in hindsight I wish I had bet a lot more than I did.
Evening all. Bit of a busy weekend in the Westminster bubble, I see.
The predicted political chaos seems to have come a bit faster than predicted. The smart bet this weekend is surely John McDonnell for Labour leader (currently a few quid available at 10/1 on the 'fair, or 8/1 at the bookies), is it not?
The dumbest political bet on the planet as at now is David Miliband for Labour leader, at between 4/1 (!) and 10/1.
"A Yougov poll on 8th June showed that 42% of Leave supporters would prefer the EFTA/EEA route post-Brexit"
And how many understood that that would mean allowing Poles, Romanians and Lithuanians to retain their existing rights to live and work in Britain?
Talking of which, has anyone got rough figures for how foreigners voted in the recent British referendum? These include Australians, Canadians, Indians and other Commonwealth citizens, as well as Irish people.
If Britain leaves the EU, British people will lose our EU citizenship. We will lose our freedom of movement in the EU and our rights to live and work in the EU. Frankly I think that is a matter for British people to decide, not for foreigners whose citizenship and rights will not be affected one way or the other. They themselves will either stay EU citizens - Cypriots, Maltese, Irish - or stay without EU citizenship - Australians, Canadians, Indians, New Zealanders, South Africans, etc. What were they doing on the franchise?
Once we quit the EU (if we do) Britain should suggest free movement between the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
Why the F not? Four rich English speaking democracies, all under the Crown. Let's do it.
I'd love to move to New Zealand. Property prices are much more reasonable, owing to debt being lower.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
Indeed.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
Big_G on the other hand has switched from Remain to Leave.
What we're seeing is another Big Lie being peddled by the establishment and its creatures.
Absolutely. And its amazing to see the remain apologists, particularly the younger generation of the remain camp acting like Luddites totally opposed to change. The reversal of the usual age stereotypes has been quite something to behold in this campaign. I've been speaking to quite a few remainers this weekend, and trying to explain to them why so many older voters voted leave in view of how they were lied to in the 1975 Referendum campaign.
"Oh did they have a referendum on this 41 years ago" one said to me! That gives you just a little snapshot of the historical ignorance that you're up against.
'22:38 The Mirror reports that John Spellar, a veteran of Labour's 1980s wars, could run as a "stalking horse" candidate against Corbyn. This would trigger a contest in which potential successors, such as Tom Watson and Angela Eagle, could then stand. Barry Sheerman and Margaret Hodge have also been touted for the role.'
What a joke...
Corbyn probably thinks all this chaos is the long-awaited death of capitalism, and the imminent overthrow by the proletariat of their oppressors - and he's superglued himself to his ringside seat.
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
I don't think it was much of a betting event, but Labour were still odds-on when the returning officer took to the stage at the Dunfermline by-election in 2006.
They weren't just odds on, they were something like 95% implied probability.
Thinking about it, New Hampshire 2008 was the only other time I've made incredible sums with almost zero risk. (And that was hundreds of pounds rather than the 7.5k I made on Thursday.)
Amazing to think that PBers seemed to have a better idea of what was happening on Thursday night than Hedge Fund managers.
PBers bet with their own money.
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
I don't belittle PB ers but it was obvious that the odds being offered on Brexit were absurd.
I don't think - in my entire history of political betting - that I've ever seen odds so wrong as on Thursday night. SpreadEx was offering me 2-1 (effective) on something which was probably an 85-90% probability. And the price wasn't moving.
And before that, in the run up to polling, odds of 3 or 4 to 1 were being offered on what amounted to a coin toss.
What was nuts was when we had that run of polls showing Leave in the lead and it barely shifted the odds. I think the highest they got was 40% on the morning Jo Cox was killed.
Leave was about an 80% chance strictly on the polling at one point.
Well, the betting was clearly well off the actual result (no surprise betting odds are always function of the money waged not likelihood of outcome) and the polling companies are just a joke (changing methodology from one poll to the next etc.).
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
The problem for many members is that the "moderates" are seen to have set out to sabotage Corbyn from day 1, so positions are entrenched and everyone blames everyone else. If we were starting from scratch, I dare say there would be a variety of left-wing views on who to pick - McDonnell if he'd stand, or Lewis as Tyson suggested, or others. Personally I'd still go for Corbyn, but I'm biased by personal acquaintance and temperamental affinity.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
Yes, if Corbyn survives this one then he is set fair for the election, whenever it comes, and you'll just have to see whether the North goes the way of Scotland, or not.
Nick has made it very clear that he is not interested in Labour being in government. On that basis, if Labour loses more seats at the next election he won't be that bothered.
Yet again, based on the premise that it's undeniable that other candidates would stand a better chance of getting into government, without ANY evidence to back up that premise.
Yep. There are two coups going on here, and the one which will be successful will be the one which is (a) focused on one particular outcome rather than a vague discontent, (b) has the levers of power, and (c) is the most ruthless.
No ice-picks should be necessary this time, though.
Yep. There are two coups going on here, and the one which will be successful will be the one which is (a) focused on one particular outcome rather than a vague discontent, (b) has the levers of power, and (c) is the most ruthless.
No ice-picks should be necessary this time, though.
FTSE and DAX futures just over 1% off for tomorrow morning. Sterling trading in the GBPUSD 1.34's - should get a retest of the 1.3213 in fairly short order. 1.2960 offers the longer term support that I think will get challenged at some point this week.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
Comedy gold LOL
You and your remain apologists have never predicted one economic thing once. In 2000 completely wrong on not joining the euro was going to be an apocalypse. Never saw 2008 coming. Never saw the 2011-12 eurozone crisis coming, and never saw Brexit coming last week so you and your ilk are the last people we go to for economic forecasts. Thankfully the majority of the British people last week saw straight through the remain economic scare stories.
Yep. There are two coups going on here, and the one which will be successful will be the one which is (a) focused on one particular outcome rather than a vague discontent, (b) has the levers of power, and (c) is the most ruthless.
No ice-picks should be necessary this time, though.
McDonnell is continuity hard left.
My best result is McDonnell followed by Corbo staying.
And like we should believe a word of what Mme Lagarde has to say. Her IMF has never predicted one recession, never predicted the problems in the Eurozone, they really are clueless.
FTSE and DAX futures just over 1% off for tomorrow morning. Sterling trading in the GBPUSD 1.34's - should get a retest of the 1.3213 in fairly short order. 1.2960 offers the longer term support that I think will get challenged at some point this week.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
Comedy gold LOL
You and your remain apologists have never predicted one economic thing once. In 2000 completely wrong on not joining the euro was going to be an apocalypse. Never saw 2008 coming. Never saw the 2011-12 eurozone crisis coming, and never saw Brexit coming last week so you and your ilk are the last people we go to for economic forecasts. Thankfully the majority of the British people last week saw straight through the remain economic scare stories.
So, how was the sovereign debt crisis of October 2015?
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.
I see another false narrative being pushed...
Indeed.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
Big_G on the other hand has switched from Remain to Leave.
What we're seeing is another Big Lie being peddled by the establishment and its creatures.
Absolutely. And its amazing to see the remain apologists, particularly the younger generation of the remain camp acting like Luddites totally opposed to change. The reversal of the usual age stereotypes has been quite something to behold in this campaign. I've been speaking to quite a few remainers this weekend, and trying to explain to them why so many older voters voted leave in view of how they were lied to in the 1975 Referendum campaign.
"Oh did they have a referendum on this 41 years ago" one said to me! That gives you just a little snapshot of the historical ignorance that you're up against.
The same group of people were lied to this time too ! It tells you something about them - gullible.
I'm beginning to think there is a structural problem with political betting (possibly all betting?). The existence of bettors who bet to avocate (right word?) a position or to demonstrate machismo (the "Deutsche Banker Problem": see previous correspondence with @Casino_Royale ) means that by election day the betting odds may be biased and "the weight of money" (right phrase?) may prevent them moving quickly. Careful monitoring of results as they come in may enable the bettor to spot results which do not fit the predicted outcome and thus place bets at odds which do not yet reflect the actual probability.
Or to put it another way: if political betting is high-volume over a prolonged period then election night is a valuebet-rich environment
Consider the following elections
* POTUS2000 (Florida being called and uncalled) * POTUS2004 (higher-than-expected turnout) * UK2015 (exit poll) * EUREF2016 (Newcastle and Sunderland anomalous results betokening the whole)
In these elections results were produced early that showed that the outcome was not as predicted and money could have been made. .
And like we should believe a word of what Mme Lagarde has to say. Her IMF has never predicted one recession, never predicted the problems in the Eurozone, they really are clueless.
Is it just me, or is the IMF trying to make the markets panic?
My best result is McDonnell followed by Corbo staying.
Both are good scenarios to cover.
As far as I can see the extreme left still hold all the cards, and the narrative is now being changed (by whom, I wonder?) to presenting the problem as being 'We need a leader who's as left-wing as Jeremy but more effective'. That narrows down the field rather neatly.
Can't wait for the second domino to fall, and then it accelerate from there and then even the remain apologists will have to eat humble pie and heap praise upon the brave farsighted 17.4m of us that voted for Brexit last week. We are on the right side of history and on the right side of the long term cycles bearing down on the world at this tumultuous time.
"A Yougov poll on 8th June showed that 42% of Leave supporters would prefer the EFTA/EEA route post-Brexit"
And how many understood that that would mean allowing Poles, Romanians and Lithuanians to retain their existing rights to live and work in Britain?
Talking of which, has anyone got rough figures for how foreigners voted in the recent British referendum? These include Australians, Canadians, Indians and other Commonwealth citizens, as well as Irish people.
If Britain leaves the EU, British people will lose our EU citizenship. We will lose our freedom of movement in the EU and our rights to live and work in the EU. Frankly I think that is a matter for British people to decide, not for foreigners whose citizenship and rights will not be affected one way or the other. They themselves will either stay EU citizens - Cypriots, Maltese, Irish - or stay without EU citizenship - Australians, Canadians, Indians, New Zealanders, South Africans, etc. What were they doing on the franchise?
Once we quit the EU (if we do) Britain should suggest free movement between the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
Why the F not? Four rich English speaking democracies, all under the Crown. Let's do it.
I'd love to move to New Zealand. Property prices are much more reasonable, owing to debt being lower.
The Dominions don't want to be flooded by hordes of whingeing POMs.
They weren't just odds on, they were something like 95% implied probability.
Thinking about it, New Hampshire 2008 was the only other time I've made incredible sums with almost zero risk. (And that was hundreds of pounds rather than the 7.5k I made on Thursday.)
On the day after the 2008 presidential election, there was one market left on Betfair relating to the exact band of the electoral college numbers, and it hinged entirely on one Nebraska electoral district. I was fairly new to political betting at the time, and not very familiar with the US system, but as far as I could see there were bets being offered at around 3.1 which arithmetically could not lose. I kept betting a few quid, and someone kept laying the bet.
I was right. If I'd been more confident that I'd understood correctly it would have been very profitable.
The abject failure of many senior political figures in the UK to behave in an adult manner is disgraceful.
Cameron should do the honourable thing and inform the 27 leaders of the countries remaining in the EU that the UK is invoking Article 50, when he meets them on Tuesday. The sooner the exit from the sclerotic EU is completed, the sooner the countries in these islands can move forward again. The UK needs a new PM in place asap, well before October. I recall that it didn't take very long for Howard to be put in place in October 2003 when IDS was deposed.
Corbyn has done nothing wrong, yet many of his colleagues in the shadow cabinet are throwing their toys out of the pram by their resignations. He took a rational approach to the EU, arguing on balance and without hysterics to vote Remain and far more Labour voters than Conservative ones followed the advice of their party leader. How does it help Labour to appear so divided when a GE may be just around the corner? If there is a GE later in 2016 and Labour does badly (notwithstanding the strife in the governing party), that would be the time for Labour to choose another leader. It is particularly desirable for Corbyn to be in post as leader on July 6th so that he can try to bring Blair to account as a war criminal when the Chilcott report is finally published.
The only leading politician in Great Britain who is behaving in a statesmanlike manner at present is Nicola Sturgeon. She is clear in what she wishes to achieve for Scotland and is not pussyfooting around.
There are significant similarities with the dying days of the USSR in August 1991 following the failed coup, particularly as the result of this referendum will lead to the break-up of the UK. I regret not having considered this, and suspect that few others did, when casting my vote last Thursday.
FTSE and DAX futures just over 1% off for tomorrow morning. Sterling trading in the GBPUSD 1.34's - should get a retest of the 1.3213 in fairly short order. 1.2960 offers the longer term support that I think will get challenged at some point this week.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
Comedy gold LOL
You and your remain apologists have never predicted one economic thing once. In 2000 completely wrong on not joining the euro was going to be an apocalypse. Never saw 2008 coming. Never saw the 2011-12 eurozone crisis coming, and never saw Brexit coming last week so you and your ilk are the last people we go to for economic forecasts. Thankfully the majority of the British people last week saw straight through the remain economic scare stories.
So, how was the sovereign debt crisis of October 2015?
Its been shoved off to the start of next year. What started in October 2015 was a crisis in confidence in government worldwide. We saw that with the Brexit vote last week, and are seeing it with the rise of Podemos in Spain. We'll see it with the French and German and US elections coming up. For the moment capital is very confused. The first and stock response to economic slowdown around the world is to sell stocks, and run to nurse in government bonds. This is having the effect of making investors face the wrong way, the necessary move to prepare for a slingshot move in the opposite direction. The scramble to the private assets of stock and gold when this gets going is going to be something to behold next year. But not all stocks are going to well, BKX chart is telling you that bank stocks are going to be weak as they'll be the ones holding the bag on a lot of this government debt.
The problem Boris (or rather Britain) has right now is that although he's committed to three contradictory things and must know he'd only get one of them, he can't come out and say which one he really wants, because that will make the mendacity of the promises too obvious. So politically he needs to go through this whole negotiation process without revealing what he really wants, then come back and finally say, "Well, I tried my best but I had to give up X and Y to get Z".
The reason this is a problem for Britain is that done this way, British businesses aren't going to know with any certainty whether they'll have market access to the EU from December, 2018 until some time around late October 2018.
And like we should believe a word of what Mme Lagarde has to say. Her IMF has never predicted one recession, never predicted the problems in the Eurozone, they really are clueless.
Is it just me, or is the IMF trying to make the markets panic?
The IMF only ever makes things worse. Mme Lagarde really is a very dangerous woman. She wants to ram through a global financial transactions tax, and level tax rates up across the world more generally. She won't succeed with her ruinous agenda for she is fighting against the cycle of decline in confidence in government. You can try to push water uphill but it will never succeed.
On the day after the 2008 presidential election, there was one market left on Betfair relating to the exact band of the electoral college numbers, and it hinged entirely on one Nebraska electoral district. I was fairly new to political betting at the time, and not very familiar with the US system, but as far as I could see there were bets being offered at around 3.1 which arithmetically could not lose. I kept betting a few quid, and someone kept laying the bet.
I was right. If I'd been more confident that I'd understood correctly it would have been very profitable.
Betfair is pretty liquid. SPIN seized up early on Thursday night but Betfair stayed up until 5-5:30.
Comments
It reminds me of the statement by the chairman of Lehman Brothers towards Congress in 2008, when he said:
"Our models predicted that such a thing will only happen once in the history of the universe, instead it occurred all day for 3 days."
Experts are only common people whose expert opinion is often biased by personal opinions and interests, they are just like you and me.
@ProfChalmers: Bonkers. "We'll keep everything except the legislation." What does he think creates it all? Candyfloss? Unicorns? https://t.co/H4FeXG4HE0
https://twitter.com/fraserwhyte81/status/747191440653041665
And they don't get bailouts if they f'ck up.
But its which bits I'd like to know.
But as you say, I'm sure this will be fleshed out in the week ahead.
And would be extremely lucrative...
A second referendum or the fall of the government are more likely before the new Tory PM will get chance to invoke Article 50.
Are any Leavers here now regretting voting Leave ?
Big_G on the other hand has switched from Remain to Leave.
What we're seeing is another Big Lie being peddled by the establishment and its creatures.
I hear a kraken has been spotted off beachy head.
If Remain or anyone else had wanted the question settled and unable to be called again, or with some sort of threshold for acceptance of the result, they should have put that in the Referendum Bill.
But I imagine the Mail knows this won't happen, it's about keeping Leavers from being complacent so no fool MP tries it (have any MPs suggested it yet? The LDs it was said are going to campaign to 'rejoin' which would seem to indicate giving up on preventing Leave, and David Lammy suggested just ignoring the result, but has anyone come out for a referendum rerun and explained why it should be so?)
It's all in the 6 stages of grief.
First stage: Shock.
The Friday morning panic.
Second stage: Denial.
Parliament, PM, Sturgeon, Boris ect, will block it.
Third stage: Anger.
"Let the whole country burn"
Fourth stage: Bargaining
Maybe we could negotiate to stay afterall.
Fifth stage: Depression
Remainers going missing and getting drunk at posh wine bars.
Sixth stage: Acceptance.
No Remainer has reached this stage yet to my knowledge, I wonder how they will behave ?
Goodnight.
But as things are now, what we're seeing is Anonymous Moderate Challenger with Unknown Platform challenging well-liked (in the membership) Corbyn with popular plaform (ditto), with the unproven claim (cf. Danny565) that AMC+UP would go down better with voters and thus enable us to implement the UP. Other left-wingers can't stand if Corbyn fights, because they'd be undermining him and thereby instantly losing the support of members.
Difficult, but the moderates have got this back to front from the start. Instead of spending a year sniping at Corbyn and accumulating the blame for problems, they should have agreed a potential challenger and worked with him or her to develop an attractive platform. Now they've started an open war which they may well lose, and what do they do then?
It was just a matter of time before there was going to be a Krakatoa eruption in British politics. Once the activities on 'that road' get out which I am working towards then we'll have another eruption, but perhaps on a Yellowstone super volcanic eruption scale.
Had a very large chuckle to myself when I heard that Mr Osborne is going to make a statement tomorrow morning to reassure the markets. You really couldn't make this up after what he said during the referendum campaign, and the promised £30bn cuts budget as a result of Brexit. Even Norman Lamont after Black Wednesday in 1992,and Denis Healey after the 1976 IMF Crisis had more credibility than Osborne has tomorrow morning. Anything the fool says will only make things worse tomorrow morning. When the curtain has fallen Mr Osborne, its time to get off the stage, and you should have got off the stage on Friday morning, not linger around like a bad smell.
DLA Piper agree with him.
I just don't see how a GE will be called, given we essentially need the big two to agree to it, when they'd only do so if they each thought they would win. And how would a Remainer government emerge from it in any case, given Labour heartlands in the north were stronger for Leave than most Tory shires, so they cannot stand unified on a platform to remain? But the Tories won't be either as at least half their voters are for Leave and how many of the rest will try to overcome that?
As for a second referendum, on what grounds prior to article 50? Opinion polls showing Bremorse? 'Lies' of the campaigns which are the same as any manifesto promise 'lie'?
The only circumstance I can see a second referendum occurring would be in response to a new, improved offer from the EU, which would be so self defeating for them, showing their underbelly to every skeptic in Europe, that I cannot believe even they would be so foolish.
In the long term once the current panic has subsided, the market will figure out that the real problem lies with the Eurozone countries, Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank.....and once this happens, thanks to Brexit, the UK will be seen as a relatively safe port relative to the eurozone.
I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up around the house in preparation.
Anyway after seeing David Miliband in at 11.5 for next Labour leader it seems the Betfair bettors are up for yet more punishment.
Good night.
It'll all look better in the morning. Perhaps not tomorrow morning, but let's try to retain a bit of optimism for a couple of months at least.
The predicted political chaos seems to have come a bit faster than predicted. The smart bet this weekend is surely John McDonnell for Labour leader (currently a few quid available at 10/1 on the 'fair, or 8/1 at the bookies), is it not?
The dumbest political bet on the planet as at now is David Miliband for Labour leader, at between 4/1 (!) and 10/1.
I see Boris is being Boris.
Still, can't complain. SpreadEx has paid for my summer holiday.
"Oh did they have a referendum on this 41 years ago" one said to me! That gives you just a little snapshot of the historical ignorance that you're up against.
What a joke...
Corbyn probably thinks all this chaos is the long-awaited death of capitalism, and the imminent overthrow by the proletariat of their oppressors - and he's superglued himself to his ringside seat.
He's going nowhere.
Thinking about it, New Hampshire 2008 was the only other time I've made incredible sums with almost zero risk. (And that was hundreds of pounds rather than the 7.5k I made on Thursday.)
Chicken entrails are probably the best bet.
No ice-picks should be necessary this time, though.
1. No more straight bananas
2. I will be PM
My best result is McDonnell followed by Corbo staying.
I'm beginning to think there is a structural problem with political betting (possibly all betting?). The existence of bettors who bet to avocate (right word?) a position or to demonstrate machismo (the "Deutsche Banker Problem": see previous correspondence with @Casino_Royale ) means that by election day the betting odds may be biased and "the weight of money" (right phrase?) may prevent them moving quickly. Careful monitoring of results as they come in may enable the bettor to spot results which do not fit the predicted outcome and thus place bets at odds which do not yet reflect the actual probability.
Or to put it another way: if political betting is high-volume over a prolonged period then election night is a valuebet-rich environment
Consider the following elections
* POTUS2000 (Florida being called and uncalled)
* POTUS2004 (higher-than-expected turnout)
* UK2015 (exit poll)
* EUREF2016 (Newcastle and Sunderland anomalous results betokening the whole)
In these elections results were produced early that showed that the outcome was not as predicted and money could have been made.
.
As far as I can see the extreme left still hold all the cards, and the narrative is now being changed (by whom, I wonder?) to presenting the problem as being 'We need a leader who's as left-wing as Jeremy but more effective'. That narrows down the field rather neatly.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/george-osborne-foreign-secretary-bad-idea/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/brexit-is-watershed-for-europe/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/european-union-off-to-emergency-room/
Can't wait for the second domino to fall, and then it accelerate from there and then even the remain apologists will have to eat humble pie and heap praise upon the brave farsighted 17.4m of us that voted for Brexit last week. We are on the right side of history and on the right side of the long term cycles bearing down on the world at this tumultuous time.
I was right. If I'd been more confident that I'd understood correctly it would have been very profitable.
Cameron should do the honourable thing and inform the 27 leaders of the countries remaining in the EU that the UK is invoking Article 50, when he meets them on Tuesday. The sooner the exit from the sclerotic EU is completed, the sooner the countries in these islands can move forward again. The UK needs a new PM in place asap, well before October. I recall that it didn't take very long for Howard to be put in place in October 2003 when IDS was deposed.
Corbyn has done nothing wrong, yet many of his colleagues in the shadow cabinet are throwing their toys out of the pram by their resignations. He took a rational approach to the EU, arguing on balance and without hysterics to vote Remain and far more Labour voters than Conservative ones followed the advice of their party leader. How does it help Labour to appear so divided when a GE may be just around the corner? If there is a GE later in 2016 and Labour does badly (notwithstanding the strife in the governing party), that would be the time for Labour to choose another leader. It is particularly desirable for Corbyn to be in post as leader on July 6th so that he can try to bring Blair to account as a war criminal when the Chilcott report is finally published.
The only leading politician in Great Britain who is behaving in a statesmanlike manner at present is Nicola Sturgeon. She is clear in what she wishes to achieve for Scotland and is not pussyfooting around.
There are significant similarities with the dying days of the USSR in August 1991 following the failed coup, particularly as the result of this referendum will lead to the break-up of the UK. I regret not having considered this, and suspect that few others did, when casting my vote last Thursday.
The reason this is a problem for Britain is that done this way, British businesses aren't going to know with any certainty whether they'll have market access to the EU from December, 2018 until some time around late October 2018.