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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy
Recent interventions into the Muslim world by Western powers post 9/11 have been characterised by one great failing. Whilst they have carefully planned and executed the military phase of the campaign, they have utterly failed to deal with the post conflict stage leaving behind failed states in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as a result.
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Spanish election results page;
http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es
http://www.cityam.com/243373/leave-campaigners-unveil-manifesto-post-brexit
Perhaps the leavers should bring in Richard asap to help!!
There would have been many reluctant remainers who want immigration reduced.
For that matter there are plenty of remainers generally who want immigration reduced.
We have a full blown coup attempt today with 10 shadow ministers resigning and yet it appears to be regarded as a mere sideshow on PB. Com – politics has gone quite nuts.
Any deal that does not include substantial reductions in immigration will be a betrayal of millions of Leave voters.
I found it pretty compelling - can anybody actually see a UK premier, assuming Liam Fox or Farage can't get the gig, who are going to have the guts to pull the trigger on a guaranteed recession, especially as by the time that comes, the consequences will be so much more obvious to the electorate?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/guardian-comment-boris-johnson_uk_576faf9be4b0d2571149c8b9
odysseanproject @odysseanproject Those saying it will be EEA and free movement also wrong
This was Carswell's posting on FB earlier today
"My timeline is a cheery place this evening! Remainers attacking me because they are cross. Kippers attacking just because."
It's been a game of poker and they are blinking. I'd suggest EFTA is the bare minimum, but once inside, we could still negotiate further on immigration control.
Point of information. It's not a sticking point for me, but we need national immigration control (even if it doesn't go down much in the end) to appease most of the weasels and stoats. They've come out to vote, and this time, they mean it.
I think the final settlement will be close to this position. THe business community will make sure of that - otherwise, Britain is looking into a deep ditch.
Brexiters, hoping to keep immigrants out would be disappointed.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/a-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn-after-brexit
Wonder what time my MP is planning to announce his
But there isn't. There are fifty of grey, which maintain the principle while substantially changing the raw numbers.
The great irony is that the easiest way to cut migration is a recession, which (if we keep arguing about this for two years) we might manage completely unaided.
On the other hand you could quit wind ups and give us some sensible thoughts on Spain, for which youre one of the better placed PBers.
This looks like PSOE+P government ?
It's not a very edifying spectacle.
There are experts out there who know how the EU and EFTA work and how we can get a good deal. I would like to think that some of the politicians are listening to them.
The next GE would be interesting. 100 seats for UKIP?
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
The difficulty is that we have a multiply divided electorate and a choice of binary decisions. As Richard observes, the emotional force of the Brexit campaign was immigration, and if a deal is done that doesn't address it, a lot of people are going to be very angry indeed. The obvious beneficiary is UKIP, but if a Conservative government has delivered such a deal, I suspect that they would be disproportionately affected by the anger, and it's possible that this would deliver a Labour government offering an alternative policy of seeking to reverse withdrawal while promising an effort on free movement.
But full-fat withdrawal without EEA access will clearly run into a flatly hostile EU and as Richard says it's not obvious that there would be a Parliamentary majority for it.
In the absence of (a) a clear Tory leader (b) a clear Labour leader (c) a consensus among Brexit supporters about what they wanted or (d) any serious Government planning for this event, it's completely impossible to tell where we're going.
Meanwhile across European chancellries it is beginning to dawn on them that their citizens regard attempting to abolish their nations and replace them as provinces of a twenty first century austro hungarian empire without feelung the need to gain their consent as an abuse of power.
We also now know that if boiling the frog slowly it is best to check that the frog is not a docile British frog as above a certain temperature it turns into a crocodile and eats the boiler.
There a many many different options, choosing one will take some time.
(Sorry twitter)
PSOE might be able to deal with IU, but Podemos are unmanageable.
It's a mess.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/26/next-prime-minister-stand/
One name not widely touted is Graham Brady – Chairman of the 1922 "so has influence".
He is actually the only one, apart from past failed Leader candidates (Davis and Fox), who the MPs have actually voted for.
THE UK HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION.
Just look at it. My god, I am going SeanT.
11% counted
PP 132
PSOE 93
Podemos 64
C's 21
ERC 10
But only 320/350 seats called.
Suggests any CL govt would be PSOE-led - Podemos looks overcooked on the exit polls.
Provided, of course, you did the sensible thing and made all benefits contribution based.
Same type of idiot, broadly speaking.
Shame he forgot to plan anything at all for Brexit
There are a lot of 'partner' parties to Podemos (some of whom are impaccably opposed to Catalan independence), such as Podemos-Compromis, and Podemos-An Merea.
'Your name vill also go on ze list.'
brexiteers: don't you dare use the civil service.
remainers: we have no plan for brexit.
brexiteers: you should have used the civil service.
So, elections again in December?
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h2D8MB5s8Jg.
.
Small.
We should turn them away. Not because we're not Europeans, but because they aren't (the representatives).
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
"...the Single Market is far more than just a customs union, or even a deep and comprehensive free trade zone. Should the UK retain membership of the Single Market, almost all of the most onerous or controversial aspects of EU membership would continue to apply, including the free movement of people and the Working Time Directive. Accordingly, the UK should, unlike Norway, seek to remain outside the European Economic Area (EEA)."
http://www.iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-iea-brexit-prize-a-blueprint-for-britain-openness-not-isolation
Some of them never let go of student politics.
Serves them right.
Key difference.
You voted for Ms 4% and came last
59% elected Corbyn and those MPs who cant stand it think they can overturn that decision with a cunning plan.
Sorry they should have read the rules EICIPM introduced more carefully.
Corbyn is leader until he decides to step down,
He won;t do that until Mc Donnell is guaranteed to make the ballot IMO
https://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/747147493767524352
Any Option that doesn't provide for de facto uk control of immigration, ie we set the level and can change it as our elected representatives decide, isn't going to be sufficient.
If there isn't currently an eu/efta/eea/.. way to do it then they will need to invent one.
The Option either won't pass without it or it won't resolve the problem perceived by tens of millions of uk citizens.
=FAIL