So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
As shocking as it appears that is, indeed, the position we are in.
Like I said, Britain is now the 'thick man of Europe'.
If they are going to betray the wwc that handed them their victory there will be carnage.
Seriously, this is a section of society that thinks it has now been listened to and they will turn very nasty if denied. I mean seriously, civil unrest type nasty.
If we're going to be brutally honest, the immigration that worries these people is not, really, Polish plumbers and Slovak dentists, let alone French bankers, it is burqa'd Muslims and maybe Roma, with a side order of cheap brickies.
Depends where you are - no one seems to care about muslims round my way, it's Polish people they side eye.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
I bet he's not far wrong. A lot of people are thinking and talking out of a place of shock and fear after Thursday's unexpected result. Once things settle down, appetite in Scotland for another referendum will decline and when it's called 'No' will win again. Scotland will be choosing between the UK and the EU, which will focus minds.
Bollox, may be the opinion in Kent but not in Scotland
The appetite for another referendum is not as strong as you might think.
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
I personally don't understand how anyone can blame the 'moderates' for resigning today/tonight. If you give a damn about the Labour party, the working class, and the people of this country you will want Jeremy Corbyn gone and you will be supporting all the shadow cabinet ministers who have put two fingers up at Corbyn. Let me say who is damaging the electability of the Labour party: Jeremy Corbyn and his associates. This man is one of the biggest threats to British democracy at this moment in time. His leadership and the sheer competence that has ensued from it is preventing this country from being a functioning democracy right now. HM Opposition is an absolute total joke, and I have to be honest and say I consider Corbyn supporters to be totally delusional. This man will never win a GE and is setting Labour and the Left in general back by decades. By supporting Jeremy Corbyn, you cannot claim to care about the working classes. Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
I hope Dan Hodges is right re 30 shadow ministers resigning. Labour needs to take this opportunity to get rid of Corbyn.
Corbyn is done I *think*. One way or another, you can't have so many MPs refusing to serve you and operate. As long as they hold their nerve (and they way they've worded their resignations makes it impossible for them to serve under him again) someone is going to tell Corbyn to back down.
He won't go. He'll view this as an opportunity to purge and purify the Labour Party.
He has no powerbase. One man can't do that by himself. He's just dragging this out and wasting everyone's time.
Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
Whereas a bunch of people who thought cheerleading for the EU, right up until the day it was rejected by the country, would have the political nous to prevent a Conservative government?
So many of these arguments are based on the premise that it's *UNDENIABLE* that the "moderates" are more electable than Corbyn. That is just not obvious to me or many other members, at all.
A lot of this isn't even about the EU. Labour have merely taken advantage of the fall-out from the EU referendum to try and rid of Corbyn. Even Cameron and Blair have misjudged the EU situation: but it doesn't change the fact that they were, for a time at least successful political operators who won elections (Blair in particular). The issue of the EU cannot be used to dismiss the judgement of whole swathes of the PLP, whose assessment of Corbyn is 100% right. It is not even about the 'moderates' being more electable than Corbyn. At this stage there is surely got to be someone even from the Left of the Labour party who is more electable than Jeremy Corbyn. If Labour have no one within their ranks that is more electable than Corbyn then they may as well throw in the towel in and cease to exist as a political party.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
In terms of Podemos, the fact they have four distinct strands probably makes it very nearly impossible to get an accurate figure. Each strand has to have its own margin of error.
Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
Whereas a bunch of people who thought cheerleading for the EU, right up until the day it was rejected by the country, would have the political nous to prevent a Conservative government?
So many of these arguments are based on the premise that it's *UNDENIABLE* that the "moderates" are more electable than Corbyn. That is just not obvious to me or many other members, at all.
Yep, a lot of Labour members are so deeply tucked into the comfort blanket they are completely divorced from reality. Why does the alternative to Corbyn have to be a "moderate"? Is corbyn really the best the left can offer?
Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
Whereas a bunch of people who thought cheerleading for the EU, right up until the day it was rejected by the country, would have the political nous to prevent a Conservative government?
So many of these arguments are based on the premise that it's *UNDENIABLE* that the "moderates" are more electable than Corbyn. That is just not obvious to me or many other members, at all.
A lot of this isn't even about the EU. Labour have merely taken advantage of the fall-out from the EU referendum to try and rid of Corbyn. Even Cameron and Blair have misjudged the EU situation: but it doesn't change the fact that they were, for a time at least successful political operators who won elections (Blair in particular). The issue of the EU cannot be used to dismiss the judgement of whole swathes of the PLP, whose assessment of Corbyn is 100% right. It is not even about the 'moderates' being more electable than Corbyn. At this stage there is surely got to be someone even from the Left of the Labour party who is more electable than Jeremy Corbyn. If Labour have no one within their ranks that is more electable than Corbyn then they may as well throw in the towel in and cease to exist as a political party.
Labour have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win an election and unify the country against a totally discredited Tory shower. Corbyn needs to go on a very long motorcycling holiday.
Well, still closer than I had thought it would be - the question is if that hardens or softens at all.
Quite. I thought it would be more like 65/35 YES/NO.
Sturgeon won't risk it on these numbers. SO FAR.
Article 50 hasn't been engaged yet. A large number of people in my social media circle are still at the bargaining stage and don't really believe actual brexit is going to happen yet.
Also people are hoping for some kind of indy-lite reverse Greenland, where we stay in the EU, so they don't have to make the decision on indy.
Reverse Greenland? Is that some kind of Eskimo porn?
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
In terms of Podemos, the fact they have four distinct strands probably makes it very nearly impossible to get an accurate figure. Each strand has to have its own margin of error.
I'm sure that's part of it, but still the PP was forcast to be on 28.5%, and ended up on 33%, that's a huge miss.
There will come a moment, when whatever it is, that we should all unite in being British,
I make little distinction in day-to-day life between people - frankly if you happen to have purple skin and walk on 13 legs then my only care is that you conduct yourself in a civilised manner (admittedly measured by my standards)
If you're British though you may have a sneaky thing calling upon you. Great Britain - not just any old place, but a Great place.
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
Populus 22 June Remain 55% Leave 45%
That wasn't so much an exit poll as a comfort poll.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
I personally don't understand how anyone can blame the 'moderates' for resigning today/tonight. If you give a damn about the Labour party, the working class, and the people of this country you will want Jeremy Corbyn gone and you will be supporting all the shadow cabinet ministers who have put two fingers up at Corbyn. Let me say who is damaging the electability of the Labour party: Jeremy Corbyn and his associates. This man is one of the biggest threats to British democracy at this moment in time. His leadership and the sheer competence that has ensued from it is preventing this country from being a functioning democracy right now. HM Opposition is an absolute total joke, and I have to be honest and say I consider Corbyn supporters to be totally delusional. This man will never win a GE and is setting Labour and the Left in general back by decades. By supporting Jeremy Corbyn, you cannot claim to care about the working classes. Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
I hope Dan Hodges is right re 30 shadow ministers resigning. Labour needs to take this opportunity to get rid of Corbyn.
Corbyn is done I *think*. One way or another, you can't have so many MPs refusing to serve you and operate. As long as they hold their nerve (and they way they've worded their resignations makes it impossible for them to serve under him again) someone is going to tell Corbyn to back down.
He won't go. He'll view this as an opportunity to purge and purify the Labour Party.
He has no powerbase. One man can't do that by himself. He's just dragging this out and wasting everyone's time.
No powerbase
Jeremy Corbyn votes in leadership election 251,417 59.5%
I bet he's not far wrong. A lot of people are thinking and talking out of a place of shock and fear after Thursday's unexpected result. Once things settle down, appetite in Scotland for another referendum will decline and when it's called 'No' will win again. Scotland will be choosing between the UK and the EU, which will focus minds.
Thanks for your expertise on what's going on in Scotland.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Ha, ha. You have absolutely no idea about what Corbyn stands for, do you? Clue - he supports unlimited immigration because he is an intern .... You complete the sentence.
Let me guess. They placed large bets on Remain on Betfair.
Some of which I, and others on here, relieved them of :-)
Thursday night was - by an order of magnitude - my most profitable gambling evening ever. The market was totally out of line with AndyJS's spreadsheet.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
Populus 22 June Remain 55% Leave 45%
That wasn't so much an exit poll as a comfort poll.
Finally got to look at the crosstabs for that, they took a 45-41 Remain lead (wrong but MOE stuff) and weighted it to 55-45. Extraordinary.
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
Populus 22 June Remain 55% Leave 45%
That wasn't so much an exit poll as a comfort poll.
Populus thinking the same people that would come out for a Dave vs Ed battle would head out for an EU referendum.
@DanSmith I am swaying towards your view as well. If more (especially if it's 30) shadow ministers resign tomorrow then you have to question how possible it will be for Corbyn to 'reshape' the shadow cabinet. My feeling is that they will have to find a single candidate to rally around and there will be a leadership election. Multiple candidates risks splintering any potential 'anti-Corbyn' vote.
@kle4 I thought this as well. All in all the coalition wasn't a bad government at all. Certainly, I thought Clegg made the right decision in 2010. I think more than ever in the last year or so, people have been able to see the difference the LDs made.
There will come a moment, when whatever it is, that we should all unite in being British,
I make little distinction in day-to-day life between people - frankly if you happen to have purple skin and walk on 13 legs then my only care is that you conduct yourself in a civilised manner (admittedly measured by my standards)
If you're British though you may have a sneaky thing calling upon you. Great Britain - not just any old place, but a Great place.
Unite - what a good idea!
I am re-posting this from my FB.
After the referendum, all I've heard is "let's unite and come together" for the good of the nation. It's a very laudable ideal and in most circumstances I would agree but in this particular example, I have to sadly decline the offer. I am not going to ally myself and come together with people who stoke the fear of immigration and pander to racists. There are some things where I quite rightly have zero tolerance - racism is one of them.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Ha, ha. You have absolutely no idea about what Corbyn stands for, do you? Clue - he supports unlimited immigration because he is an intern .... You complete the sentence.
That's just a fact, it wasn't overwhelming. I presume emphasised to explain why iimmigration will be off the table - half wanted leave, half wanted remain, so meet in the middle, leave but not so different if we can manage it.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
Couldn't the entire hedge fund industry have hired John Curtice, Chris Hanretty or even looked at my polling spreadsheet before piling on Sterling and remain ?
I personally don't understand how anyone can blame the 'moderates' for resigning today/tonight. If you give a damn about the Labour party, the working class, and the people of this country you will want Jeremy Corbyn gone and you will be supporting all the shadow cabinet ministers who have put two fingers up at Corbyn. Let me say who is damaging the electability of the Labour party: Jeremy Corbyn and his associates. This man is one of the biggest threats to British democracy at this moment in time. His leadership and the sheer competence that has ensued from it is preventing this country from being a functioning democracy right now. HM Opposition is an absolute total joke, and I have to be honest and say I consider Corbyn supporters to be totally delusional. This man will never win a GE and is setting Labour and the Left in general back by decades. By supporting Jeremy Corbyn, you cannot claim to care about the working classes. Corbyn's leadership virtually guarantees a Conservative government - and not just any Conservative government - but a total disaster of a Conservative government.
I hope Dan Hodges is right re 30 shadow ministers resigning. Labour needs to take this opportunity to get rid of Corbyn.
Corbyn is done I *think*. One way or another, you can't have so many MPs refusing to serve you and operate. As long as they hold their nerve (and they way they've worded their resignations makes it impossible for them to serve under him again) someone is going to tell Corbyn to back down.
He won't go. He'll view this as an opportunity to purge and purify the Labour Party.
He has no powerbase. One man can't do that by himself. He's just dragging this out and wasting everyone's time.
No powerbase
Jeremy Corbyn votes in leadership election 251,417 59.5%
I really am off now
Lets see how many of those have melted away now they realise that Corbyn doesn't really care about the stuff they care about.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit, IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
But Brits will be free to live, work, study and travel in the EU. Of course!!
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
I assumed he meant a points based system for non-EU and freedom of movement for EU. Which is probably quite a good idea.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Couldn't the entire hedge fund industry have hired John Curtice, Chris Hanretty or even looked at my polling spreadsheet before piling on Sterling and remain ?
I guess it shows that at heart they don't have any sense of imagination. They really couldn't conceive of the idea that the Brits would be bonkers enough to pull the plug.
There will come a moment, when whatever it is, that we should all unite in being British,
I make little distinction in day-to-day life between people - frankly if you happen to have purple skin and walk on 13 legs then my only care is that you conduct yourself in a civilised manner (admittedly measured by my standards)
If you're British though you may have a sneaky thing calling upon you. Great Britain - not just any old place, but a Great place.
Unite - what a good idea!
I am re-posting this from my FB.
After the referendum, all I've heard is "let's unite and come together" for the good of the nation. It's a very laudable ideal and in most circumstances I would agree but in this particular example, I have to sadly decline the offer. I am not going to ally myself and come together with people who stoke the fear of immigration and pander to racists. There are some things where I quite rightly have zero tolerance - racism is one of them.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
David Miliband, via Batley & Spen by-election.
It seems impossibly mad. But given the political year so far, is probably about to happen. For this reason, I have a small wager on the Prince.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
I assumed he meant a points based system for non-EU and freedom of movement for EU. Which is probably quite a good idea.
Possibly. Until we hear from him and Gove we just don't know. I'm hoping things will become clearer tomorrow...
And as far as Osborne staying on after Cameron. No. Just No.
"A Yougov poll on 8th June showed that 42% of Leave supporters would prefer the EFTA/EEA route post-Brexit"
And how many understood that that would mean allowing Poles, Romanians and Lithuanians to retain their existing rights to live and work in Britain?
Talking of which, has anyone got rough figures for how foreigners voted in the recent British referendum? These include Australians, Canadians, Indians and other Commonwealth citizens, as well as Irish people.
If Britain leaves the EU, British people will lose our EU citizenship. We will lose our freedom of movement in the EU and our rights to live and work in the EU. Frankly I think that is a matter for British people to decide, not for foreigners whose citizenship and rights will not be affected one way or the other. They themselves will either stay EU citizens - Cypriots, Maltese, Irish - or stay without EU citizenship - Australians, Canadians, Indians, New Zealanders, South Africans, etc. What were they doing on the franchise?
Once we quit the EU (if we do) Britain should suggest free movement between the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
Why the F not? Four rich English speaking democracies, all under the Crown. Let's do it.
Because they won't want the unwashed British landing on their shores. Utterly utterly ridiculous. Get a grip man.
The British Empire was lost last century. The English Empire (Scotland, what's left of Ireland, even possibly Wales) will be lost this century.
Wales voted Leave and given the choice of keeping the English 'Empire' but being part of the even greater EU 'Empire' English voters chose to forgo imperialism and take freedom, may not prove to be such a bad choice in the end!
Wales was the first nation to be conquered by the English - or the Normans, to be more accurate. It will be the last to go.
The shrinking of the British/English Empire has been going on for decades. It ain't finished yet.
RE Boris: plenty of people saw this coming with him, and called it months ago when Boris came out for leave. He'll be a total disaster as PM: the Tories' best bet is May. Osborne's leadership ambitions are in the dust: I don't see how he can get anywhere near the level of support from Conservative MPs, or members to win the leadership.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
I assumed he meant a points based system for non-EU and freedom of movement for EU. Which is probably quite a good idea.
I've vaguely got this feeling that this model has been employed somewhere before...
A few comments on the Survation Independence polling.
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
That's just a fact, it wasn't overwhelming. I presume emphasised to explain why iimmigration will be off the table - half wanted leave, half wanted remain, so meet in the middle, leave but not so different if we can manage it.
He has to be careful or else Farage might find a new cause to accuse any new Tory leader of backtracking from what the Brexit promised.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
David Miliband, via Batley & Spen by-election.
The man who thought it was a good political strategy to say that Leave voters (i.e. a majority of the electorate) were "arsonists".
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
David Miliband, via Batley & Spen by-election.
It seems impossibly mad. But given the political year so far, is probably about to happen. For this reason, I have a small wager on the Prince.
I always wondered about him, and thought him over-rated before, particularly in terms of potential voter appeal. And as a re-tread it could even more of a gamble.
They need someone more effective AND more in tune with their voters especially outside London AND who their members will vote for. I am not sure who is in the middle of that Venn Diagram?
There is no-one. Corbyn is the least-worst option, as far as I can see.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
Basically that was what Nick Palmer was saying earlier. In their party they are blessed with a good mix of suitable and electable candidates...but none of those who are suitable are electable and none of those electable are suitable.
David Miliband, via Batley & Spen by-election.
It seems impossibly mad. But given the political year so far, is probably about to happen. For this reason, I have a small wager on the Prince.
It's crazy. The timeline doesn't fit, and a Miliband flying home from a globalist sinecure to 'save Labour, save the UK' would receive a derisory vote, making Kendall look good.
There's only one candidate who could run Jezza close. And he departed the stage 2000 years ago...
I said this before. All the talk in my bubble of London ABers (typically in consulting, FS, or advertising) is about delaying or abandoning investments, relocations, and potential opportunities abroad. I accept we represent a tiny fraction of the population, but we drive the economy. Any rebalancing away from a services-led, London-led economy is decades away. Or perhaps not now that we've decided to go full Pol Pot.
Right I'm off to bed, slightly reassured that Brexit is not likely to actually happen now. The whole project to leave had been successful hijacked by Boris in order to become PM.
That's just a fact, it wasn't overwhelming. I presume emphasised to explain why iimmigration will be off the table - half wanted leave, half wanted remain, so meet in the middle, leave but not so different if we can manage it.
He has to be careful or else Farage might find a new cause to accuse any new Tory leader of backtracking from what the Brexit promised.
That's inevitable - I guess Boris is trying to please both Tory Remainers and Leavers. He's been both himself after all.
A few comments on the Survation Independence polling.
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
I don't think there will be another Scottish referendum. The last one was in 2014. The unionists won.
The PP was forecast to drop 4 seats, and Citizens to lose 12. The Right wing block was expected to be down 16 seats. (I.e. 10% of their total). The reality? The block gained 6 seats. The polls were 5% out on the PP vote share, and 3% on Citizens.
According the exits, Podemos was expected to be just 3% behind the PP on 26%. Reality, they were third behind the PSOE on 22%.
Did people lie to the pollsters? Or were they just shit?
That's not how I read it. He's still saying there's going to be a "point's based system" which would not be compatible with the single market or free movement.
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
I assumed he meant a points based system for non-EU and freedom of movement for EU. Which is probably quite a good idea.
I've vaguely got this feeling that this model has been employed somewhere before...
A few comments on the Survation Independence polling.
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
I don't think there will be another Scottish referendum. The last one was in 2014. The unionists won.
Things have changes since then. What the scottish public is willing to risk may have changed.
James Gleick @JamesGleick What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
EFTA really is the only sane option at the moment. We need something in place quickly, or face utter chaos if we're turfed out without single market access once Article 50 expires.
So in summary: 1. We voted to leave but Cameron won't push the button having quit 2. We have no government as Cameron remains as lame duck PM and the Tories are too busy arguing about who voted for what to start a leadership contest properly 3. We have no opposition as the Labour front bench consists of Corbyn, a scouser waiting to be crowned mayor of Manchester and Diana Abbot 4. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if the referendum isn't overturned 5. We have millions of citizens ready to take to the streets if there is any u turn from whatever they think they were offered if we Vote Leave 6. We have thousands (?) of citizens about to start serious race riots because they can't understand why operation deport the darkie hasn't started already
Now, if you were an investor, what would your instinct have you do tomorrow....?
Buy. All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October. We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
I don't know about 3, but the rest seem correct.
How about SDP2? Do you think it might come to that?
Comments
Like I said, Britain is now the 'thick man of Europe'.
A more competent and charismatic version of Frank Field or John Mann would be closest to what's needed, but, even if such a candidate existed, the Labour "moderates" would be too ideological to allow someone who's Eurosceptic and economically populist to take the helm -- it would damage their desired purity of being "internationalist" and "outward-looking".
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-quickly-can-join-labour-8285483
Don't trust him at all.
I make little distinction in day-to-day life between people - frankly if you happen to have purple skin and walk on 13 legs then my only care is that you conduct yourself in a civilised manner (admittedly measured by my standards)
If you're British though you may have a sneaky thing calling upon you. Great Britain - not just any old place, but a Great place.
Project Fear...
Jeremy Corbyn votes in leadership election 251,417 59.5%
I really am off now
He's going for full, 100% Brexit and leave the single market IMO.
I'm sure we'll find out tomorrow anyway.
@DanSmith I am swaying towards your view as well. If more (especially if it's 30) shadow ministers resign tomorrow then you have to question how possible it will be for Corbyn to 'reshape' the shadow cabinet. My feeling is that they will have to find a single candidate to rally around and there will be a leadership election. Multiple candidates risks splintering any potential 'anti-Corbyn' vote.
@kle4 I thought this as well. All in all the coalition wasn't a bad government at all. Certainly, I thought Clegg made the right decision in 2010. I think more than ever in the last year or so, people have been able to see the difference the LDs made.
I am re-posting this from my FB.
After the referendum, all I've heard is "let's unite and come together" for the good of the nation. It's a very laudable ideal and in most circumstances I would agree but in this particular example, I have to sadly decline the offer. I am not going to ally myself and come together with people who stoke the fear of immigration and pander to racists. There are some things where I quite rightly have zero tolerance - racism is one of them.
What a buffoon.
All of them are mutually exclusive and have a time limit till the end of October.
We already know the answers to all of the above and when they will be resolved.
1+2 The new PM will push the button after he is selected in October and a new government formed.
3. Corbyn will still be Labour leader until and if he loses a GE, a smaller more loyalist shadow cabinet might be an improvement from the previous arrangement in terms of stability.
4+5+6. I haven't seen any riots or any appetite for riots, spirits will cool as the days go by.
And as far as Osborne staying on after Cameron. No. Just No.
The shrinking of the British/English Empire has been going on for decades. It ain't finished yet.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/747183600286720000
People were getting visas to work in fast food restaurants in their thousands.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/yes-minister-explains-brexit_uk_576e92a8e4b0232d331e0fa8?edition=uk
55% at this stage following Brexit is very encouraging. I think those expeting 60% or more (I expected upper 50s) have got a bit carried away with how they view other people going through the process of coming to terms with Brexit.
In reality, there will be huge numbers of people in the early stages - Denial and Bargaining. There will be further movement to Yes.
The history of Yes gains is such that once people make the deicsion, they very rarely go back on it. For sure, some people do but it is a tiny portion. The direction of travel has never changed and the Yes vote has always hardened.
A good indicator that the situation is still in flux is the 52% to 48% for a second referendum. This is likely due to lots of Yes supporters feeling it is too early in case they lose. However polls like this will increase the figure quickly.
There may even be a virtuous cycle after each poll. more Yes voters commit to the second referendum and more people wanting a second referendum seeing Yes as the winning side and wanting to be on it.
Remind us again what happened after you had voted.
No.
https://twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/738343552661458945
For the best I think. No that isn't sarcasm.
There's only one candidate who could run Jezza close. And he departed the stage 2000 years ago...
http://gu.com/p/4myk4?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Top Work
What happens when a democracy makes a profound decision by popular vote and immediately senses, collectively, that it made a mistake?
Now I really am away.