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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy

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  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    Freggles said:


    There's no leader at the moment but there is a programme.

    The programme is protecting the worst off in society without demonizing anyone earning over £45k.
    The programme is ensuring that the benefits of economic growth result in good public services and equality of opportunity.

    The programme is fighting tooth and nail for a settlement with the EU that protects the quality of the air we breathe, our rights to paid parental leave, our rights to a safe workplace, and allows us to continue to trade unimpeded.
    It's providing a stable, planned economic environment that gradually reduces the deficit without mega hand-outs for the richest in society, and making steps to rebalance the burden of tax so that it's no longer acceptable for PAYE workers to suffer while inherited wealth is shrugged at by HMRC.

    Rolling back the intrusion of ideological dogma into domains where evidence-based practice should be the norm: healthcare, education, policing, social work.

    A fair settlement with Scotland, Wales and NI and creating a better Northern Powerhouse than Osborne offers with real investment in infrastructure in the regions, rather than using the pocket change left over from HS2 and airport expansion.

    It's recognising that the concerns people have over mass immigration can't be solved by stuffing their mouths with tax credits, but rather that we need to look at both the factors pulling people into the country AND building more infrastructure to support those who do come here.

    It's being able to present ourselves as an alternative Government not a student debating society.
    Above all it's NOT having Das Kapital shoved so far up our collective rectum that it impedes the flow of blood to the parts of the brain that allow us to communicate as normal humans, regardless of if we're talking to a stockbroker from Kent or an unemployed steel worker from Redcar.

    If we stick with Corbyn, there is a helpful guide to what we can expect at the next election: look at the yellow Remain areas on the map. Knock off Scotland. Knock off Northern Ireland. The remainder is where JC plays well.

    *drops mic*

    A majority in the country would vote for this platform. For the sake of the nation, Corbyn needs to go now, or perhaps at a moment to allow David Miliband to return to parliament and take the leadership. I've not been a massive fan in the past, but the world has changed very quickly.
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    MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    SeanT said:

    MontyHall said:

    MontyHall said:

    SeanT said:

    I followed up that Polish immigrants story. It's here


    https://twitter.com/b0redinbucks

    Very sad. It does look like real nastiness emerging; perhaps it is just coincidence. Pray to God it all goes away.

    A quite amazing coincidence.

    The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
    This nasty undercurrent won't go away so easily, because part of the Leave campaign consciously deployed it as a weapon, Im afraid.
    The story has been published in the Huffington Post, which links to facebook. On there people are claiming the photographs are from 2012 and therefore nothing to do with "Brexit". The person that posted the photos on twitter seems to have an agenda, if you read his timeline. It is almost certain to be fiction.
    That's interesting. I did look at his timeline and wonder. It was a little convenient. Hmm.
    Of course when you or I see people strewn across the street on a Saturday night having been beaten up, we start taking photographs of them don't we? Then we hang around until the ambulance arrives and take some more
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    It's no surprise to me - last time the polls proved very unreliable at forecasting both Cs and Podemos and I believe there are aspect of the d'hondt system which may accentuate these inaccuracies. I've been watching the Spanish TV and some commentators suggest that Podemos down and PP up may have been partly influenced by the Brexit vote on Friday - this was heavily and noisily disputed by the Podemos chap :)
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395
    20.22 There are lots of rumours Angela Eagle or Jon Ashworth will be resigning. We’ve had no confirmation of either, but if one were to occur it would be particularly notable.

    Both sit on Labour’s NEC as frontbench representatives. Forgoing their frontbench positions would mean they were no longer on the NEC, which is a crucial body for determining whether Corbyn can be on a leadership ballot automatically.


    ~ LabourList

    Perhaps Corbyn is so weak he can't sack them?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,458
    Chris Bryant has resigned.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,969
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

    Good, what we need now is to delay exit while the EU infights and try and get the best deal possible. It is brutal to say it but we now need populists to win almost everywhere, the more chaos and anti establishment parties do well the better our relative position will be
    What's become of you, HYUFD? You seem to have become a bit of a revolutionary!
    We have to now, Brexit occurred and we have to put national interest first and it may be horrible to say but that would include Trump winning the US presidency and Le Pen the presidency in France
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,061
    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,327
    So more people have resigned from the shadow cabinet today than there are Lib Dem MPs.

    Crazy, crazy times
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    tlg86 said:

    Chris Bryant has resigned.

    From the priesthood?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,969

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Very droll Alastair.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    I apportion blame roughly : 50% Cameron; 30% Johnson; 15% Corbyn, and only 5% Juncker.
    We all knew Juncker was a drunk provocateur when he was appointed, he's only played true to form. But yes, he and they should all resign.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,395

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Someone posted this earlier: http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wirtschaftspolitik/eu-kommissionspraesident-juncker-will-brexit-fuer-euro-vollendung-nutzen-14309932.html
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,124
    SeanT said:

    MontyHall said:

    MontyHall said:

    SeanT said:

    I followed up that Polish immigrants story. It's here


    https://twitter.com/b0redinbucks

    Very sad. It does look like real nastiness emerging; perhaps it is just coincidence. Pray to God it all goes away.

    A quite amazing coincidence.

    The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
    This nasty undercurrent won't go away so easily, because part of the Leave campaign consciously deployed it as a weapon, Im afraid.
    The story has been published in the Huffington Post, which links to facebook. On there people are claiming the photographs are from 2012 and therefore nothing to do with "Brexit". The person that posted the photos on twitter seems to have an agenda, if you read his timeline. It is almost certain to be fiction.
    That's interesting. I did look at his timeline and wonder. It was a little convenient. Hmm.

    Makes him a total scumbag. When real attacks are taking place, making shit up is just contemptible.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.
    C is down, Podemos actually slightly up from 2015 even if short of the exit poll and still the vote is not yet complete
    The right block (PP + C) is going to be three seats above where they were in December, while the Left block (PSOE + P +iU) will be down 2, and nationalists down 1.

    Podemos could come in 2 seats above current projections, Citizens 1 more, and PP 3 less. Which means that there'll have been a left -> right move of one seat.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    More than 80% in and PP are the most improved since December - not enough for mayoria asoluta but I think quite difficult now to exclude them from any role in government.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:


    What you need is a seriou god, we need it.

    Absolutely spot on. Thbout the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.

    The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?

    The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
    When facts change, I change my mind...

    What do you do, Nick?

    Yet again you are missing the point. We all laughed, oh how we laughed because there was no ready answer to the question: what changed in the Labour Party between 9.59pm and 10.01pm on May 7th last year, and what's the difference between them and the Conservative Party. We had two broadly centrist parties, espousing broadly similar manifestos, with a bit more or less tax here, and a bit more or less spending there.

    And so of course those seers of the Labour Party said: but that is not what the UK wants. What the UK wants is a return to the radical, campus politics of the 80s. And you Nick, you said, in your heart of

    But, you great big banana, the UK wants centrist politics. Always has done, always will, the epitome of the "mustn't grumble" world view that has seen us through. Look at the buyers' remorse of the EU referendum.

    So had you held your nerve, as a party, elected Liz or even Andy, (no dear god not Andy), and seen the Cons bolt rightwards as they now have done, you would now be the next government in waiting if not actually the current government.

    But you had instead a rush of blood to the head, had an asinine, playground, campus-type moment of idiocy and as a result, sadly Nick for you, you will never be a part of the Labour Party's or indeed the UK's political future. As for the Labour Party, well it is up to them. I have no great confidence but you never know, there are enough decent types in there, not including (politically) you.
    I wholeheartedly agree, the labour party c1997 was a party that I was happy voting for, same with Cameron's party c2010. All you need is to get someone who has the centrist position of that era and I'm back with you. As of now I have no voting home.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,458
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Chris Bryant has resigned.

    From the priesthood?
    He's probably my college's most famous alumnus.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Evening all.

    Long time lurker. Decided to de-lurk for surely the most chaotic moment in British politics in the post-war period.

    Three days on, the mood among friends and colleagues (yes, in AB London) is still of grief, anger, disbelief, and derision. But also sober talk of new plans : deferring or abandoning investments & hires; considering relocation or opportunities abroad. The fallout is only beginning and cannot be measured in short-term fluctuations in the FTSE or the pound.

    Can I say again what an arrogant failure Cameron is?
    Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum? This is not democracy - and was never intended to be. It was a sham - a tactical display of shadow-puppetry; totally at odds with this country's traditions. He has debauched the constitution, put the Union at risk, broken the economy, and re-toxified the Tories with a vengeance.

    I will vote for a Labour leader who can unify, heal - and negotiate hard for this country's interests to stay in the EU or damn well near it (EFTA with knobs on, as Sean T says). I believe he (or she) would win an election on that basis. I say this as life-long Conservative party voter.














    Great first post. That should be Labour's target market now. Not sure many of us want to be in the same party as the traditionalist anti-market eurosceptic left

    SeanT said:
    In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
    I genuinely work up this morning after a third straight night on the piss thinking it was a dream
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    On my Facebook, the same people calling for the ref to be re-run are calling the move against Corbyn "undemocratic".

    Oh, the irony!
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Jonathan said:

    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
    Ed Miliband seems like a golden era by comparison.
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    PAW said:

    Hmm. German foreign minister calls for USA trops to leave Eastern Europe - says their presence is provocative.

    I guess he prefers Russian troops instead?
    I believe the German FM has recently visited Putin and made friendly noises. The Germans were always ambivalent about Russia - they would like to do more trade with them in spite of historically hiding behind Uncle Sam's skirts when the Ruskies threatened.

  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,052
    edited June 2016
    TSE - you must be hoping we've reached close of play viz. resignations. You don't want to be up all night announcing them on the hour every hour!!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal
    I agree, with the PP so far ahead of number two, and a more than 10% ahead of Podemos, they will lead any coalition.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,834
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

    Good, what we need now is to delay exit while the EU infights and try and get the best deal possible. It is brutal to say it but we now need populists to win almost everywhere, the more chaos and anti establishment parties do well the better our relative position will be
    What's become of you, HYUFD? You seem to have become a bit of a revolutionary!
    We have to now, Brexit occurred and we have to put national interest first and it may be horrible to say but that would include Trump winning the US presidency and Le Pen the presidency in France
    Sounds like you have eschewed the Norway or Switzerland or Canada model and have plumped instead for a direct move to the North Korean one.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    Are the Shadow Cabinet resignations being deliberately staggered to cause maximum damage?

    Keeps the story in the news and stops Corbyn doing a reshuffle as he doesn't know who is still to resign.
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    It's simply accountability.
  • Options
    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
    Ed Miliband seems like a golden era by comparison.
    I found myself feeling nostalgic for Ed and Gordon Brown earlier. At least Gordon got off his arse and fought this referendum.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hungary are really impressive. Gutsy football and teamwork.



  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    Are the Shadow Cabinet resignations being deliberately staggered to cause maximum damage?

    Keeps the story in the news and stops Corbyn doing a reshuffle as he doesn't know who is still to resign.

    You getting the hang of this politics thing?
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,928
    So, with the free money that Corbyn just gave me (he's gone)

    What should I actually do with it? (GBP500)



  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,301
    edited June 2016

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Haha. He will have to find an answer to the British question!
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

    Good, what we need now is to delay exit while the EU infights and try and get the best deal possible. It is brutal to say it but we now need populists to win almost everywhere, the more chaos and anti establishment parties do well the better our relative position will be
    What's become of you, HYUFD? You seem to have become a bit of a revolutionary!
    We have to now, Brexit occurred and we have to put national interest first and it may be horrible to say but that would include Trump winning the US presidency and Le Pen the presidency in France
    Sounds like you have eschewed the Norway or Switzerland or Canada model and have plumped instead for a direct move to the North Korean one.
    I don't see how having to dealing with a bunch of nationalist populists would help us in the slightest when negotiating Brexit.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    perdix said:

    PAW said:

    Hmm. German foreign minister calls for USA trops to leave Eastern Europe - says their presence is provocative.

    I guess he prefers Russian troops instead?
    I believe the German FM has recently visited Putin and made friendly noises. The Germans were always ambivalent about Russia - they would like to do more trade with them in spite of historically hiding behind Uncle Sam's skirts when the Ruskies threatened.

    Der Spiegel had a good article on Germany's maneuverings around Russian sanctions. Only the US is keeping their nose to the grindstone.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,061

    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
    Ed Miliband seems like a golden era by comparison.
    I found myself feeling nostalgic for Ed and Gordon Brown earlier. At least Gordon got off his arse and fought this referendum.
    Brown has the best reputation of the C21 prime ministers.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,124
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal

    I'd say a PP+Cs is most likely. Just can't see PSOE throwing their hats in with PP. There's far too much history.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,374
    Thrak said:

    TOPPING said:


    The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?

    The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.

    When facts change, I change my mind...

    What do you do, Nick?

    Yet again you are missing the point. We all laughed, oh how we laughed because there was no ready answer to the question: what changed in the Labour Party between 9.59pm and 10.01pm on May 7th last year, and what's the difference between them and the Conservative Party. We had two broadly centrist parties, espousing broadly similar manifestos, with a bit more or less tax here, and a bit more or less spending there.

    And so of course those seers of the Labour Party said: but that is not what the UK wants. What the UK wants is a return to the radical, campus politics of the 80s. And you Nick, you said, in your heart of

    But, you great big banana, the UK wants centrist politics. Always has done, always will, the epitome of the "mustn't grumble" world view that has seen us through. Look at the buyers' remorse of the EU referendum.

    So had you held your nerve, as a party, elected Liz or even Andy, (no dear god not Andy), and seen the Cons bolt rightwards as they now have done, you would now be the next government in waiting if not actually the current government.

    But you had instead a rush of blood to the head, had an asinine, playground, campus-type moment of idiocy and as a result, sadly Nick for you, you will never be a part of the Labour Party's or indeed the UK's political future. As for the Labour Party, well it is up to them. I have no great confidence but you never know, there are enough decent types in there, not including (politically) you.
    I wholeheartedly agree, the labour party c1997 was a party that I was happy voting for, same with Cameron's party c2010. All you need is to get someone who has the centrist position of that era and I'm back with you. As of now I have no voting home.
    The 'centrist position' of magic money tree economics, ever rising house prices, increasing socioeconomic inequality, Middle Eastern warmongering, unlimited immigration, sleeze and mendacity in public life ?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    EPG said:

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Haha. He will have to find an answer to the British question!
    To be fair, hasn't he found a very good answer?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,860
    Bryant now gone.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,867
    edited June 2016
    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,928
    Jonathan said:

    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
    Ed Miliband seems like a golden era by comparison.
    I found myself feeling nostalgic for Ed and Gordon Brown earlier. At least Gordon got off his arse and fought this referendum.
    Brown has the best reputation of the C21 prime ministers.
    Brown is the worst of all men.
  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    SeanT said:

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Yes, I agree with this. Not that it should worry us Brits, or that we have a say any more (hmmm, that does feel quite nice, all that ghastly EU thing is OVER...) but Juncker by any account has failed. The second biggest EU nation left on his watch. He fucked up. It's as bad as it gets.

    Equally, an entire generation of EU politicians failed. Brexit is bad bad bad for Europe. Potentially worse for them, and their project, than it is for us.

    They should have realised the danger, and given us something on Free Movement.

    But that brings us back to Cameron. Why was his deal so shit? How bad a politician is he? "I'd like to be prime minister because I think I'd be quite good at it". It turned out he was about as bad at being prime minister as it is possible to imagine.

    I wonder how he feels now. Given his background he must be close to suicidality.
    His deal was poor because as far as the EU was concerned he should have nothing, nothing at all. What he got was due to any skills he had at negotiating.
    To criticise him for a poor deal is to assume there was a better one behind door number two, just waiting for some hard work to get. There wasn't.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Personal note - PP have beaten PSOE in Andalucia - a bit like conservatives gain NE England! :)
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    What is more important - Corbyn's 'mandate' or the future of the Labour Party? Sod what might be offensive, fight for the future - not the little man from Islington
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78

    On my Facebook, the same people calling for the ref to be re-run are calling the move against Corbyn "undemocratic".

    Oh, the irony!

    It's similar to the way the people that were criticising "divisiveness" during the referendum now support Scotland, Northern Ireland and London seceding.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal

    I'd say a PP+Cs is most likely. Just can't see PSOE throwing their hats in with PP. There's far too much history.

    Incredible how wrong the exits were. Who would have put the PP on 136 seats?
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    MikeL said:

    Are the Shadow Cabinet resignations being deliberately staggered to cause maximum damage?

    Keeps the story in the news and stops Corbyn doing a reshuffle as he doesn't know who is still to resign.

    I thought they would bottle it but they've done really well today.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Starfall said:

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    It's simply accountability.
    It would be a faint sign that the EU had the vaguest glimmerings why it is so unpopular in so many quarters.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,018
    Oh, and Richard, an excellent, eloquent piece; it goes without saying.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652
    Unbelievable Hazard goal
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    Jonathan said:

    Freggles said:

    Jonathan said:

    I disagree with it. Not alone. Plenty of members fed up with Corbyn.
    Ed Miliband seems like a golden era by comparison.
    I found myself feeling nostalgic for Ed and Gordon Brown earlier. At least Gordon got off his arse and fought this referendum.
    Brown has the best reputation of the C21 prime ministers.
    I used to joke about his interventions, but at least he had some gravitas. The manner of his going in 2010 weakened him but he came through the last few weeks. Unlike Corbyn.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    perdix said:

    PAW said:

    Hmm. German foreign minister calls for USA trops to leave Eastern Europe - says their presence is provocative.

    I guess he prefers Russian troops instead?
    I believe the German FM has recently visited Putin and made friendly noises. The Germans were always ambivalent about Russia - they would like to do more trade with them in spite of historically hiding behind Uncle Sam's skirts when the Ruskies threatened.

    Brexit increases Russian influence, or rather reduces our influence in the Continent to Russia's benefit. Not WW3, but a nudge in the needle toward the forces of anti-democracy.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    MikeL said:

    Are the Shadow Cabinet resignations being deliberately staggered to cause maximum damage?

    Keeps the story in the news and stops Corbyn doing a reshuffle as he doesn't know who is still to resign.

    You getting the hang of this politics thing?
    Grow up - and learn some basic self awareness at the same time.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    DanSmith said:

    MikeL said:

    Are the Shadow Cabinet resignations being deliberately staggered to cause maximum damage?

    Keeps the story in the news and stops Corbyn doing a reshuffle as he doesn't know who is still to resign.

    I thought they would bottle it but they've done really well today.
    Now, if they had done this against Brown when they had the chance, how different would things be looking now?

    Labour/LD coalition in 2010 and certainly no 2016 referendum....
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    It is difficult to see where REJOINING the EU, after Brexit has happened, and with presumably none of the favourable terms currently enjoyed, would attract ANY support in the country whatsoever!

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,374
    The Labour party experiences the establishment against the 'little people'.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,235
    viewcode said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Like the article. It does rather beg the question of who in the Conservative Party can realistically carry out such a plan. I think Gove is too poisoned by his antiimmigration stance (YMMV), but Boris would have the chutzpah to carry it off, and May may have the dull bureaucratic drive to carry it through. Don't know about the others.

    To be honest with the exception of those few who distanced themselves from the anti-immigration stance during the campaign (and who are minor players like Carswell or Hannan) there are few from the Leave side who could do this without being accused of betrayal. I think someone is just going to have to grow a pair and accept it.

    May would of course be an alternative as would some other mildly sceptic remainer. Javid would seem an obvious choice but I doubt he would get the support.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Nearly 90% now with PP/Cs up to 168 - so no absolute majority but the centre right have done well in Spain.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    The problem with their position is there is no way we would be allowed back with our existing opt-outs. We would have to go in on their terms, not ours. So yes to the Euro, yes to open borders etc etc etc

    I can't see that getting mass popular support
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    On the contrary, he has a solution to the British problem. No more need for "the extra sausage".
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    oh, Lisa Nandy is still there. I forgot about her.
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Thrak said:

    TOPPING said:


    The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?

    The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.

    When facts change, I change my mind...

    What do you do, Nick?

    Yet again you are missing the point. We all laughed, oh how we laughed because there was no ready answer to the question: what changed in the Labour Party between 9.59pm and 10.01pm on May 7th last year, and what's the difference between them and the Conservative Party. We had two broadly centrist parties, espousing broadly similar manifestos, with a bit more or less tax here, and a bit more or less spending there.

    And so of course those seers of the Labour Party said: but that is not what the UK wants. What the UK wants is a return to the radical, campus politics of the 80s. And you Nick, you said, in your heart

    But you had instead a rush of blood to the head, had an asinine, playground, campus-type moment of idiocy and as a result, sadly Nick for you, you will never be a part of the Labour Party's or indeed the UK's political future. As for the Labour Party, well it is up to them. I have no great confidence but you never know, there are enough decent types in there, not including (politically) you.
    I wholeheartedly agree, the labour party c1997 was a party that I was happy voting for, same with Cameron's party c2010. All you need is to get someone who has the centrist position of that era and I'm back with you. As of now I have no voting home.
    The 'centrist position' of magic money tree economics, ever rising house prices, increasing socioeconomic inequality, Middle Eastern warmongering, unlimited immigration, sleeze and mendacity in public life ?
    Hated the warmongering and sleaze but the rest? It was Brown who lost it later, who I didn't support, and let the economy get out of hand. Corbyn or Johnson? Give me a break, they're both jokes. This site seems strangely in thrall to extremes.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,124
    felix said:

    Nearly 90% now with PP/Cs up to 168 - so no absolute majority but the centre right have done well in Spain.

    They are getting very close. I reckon they'll have the numbers to get a workable deal done.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,867

    SeanT said:


    What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.

    Great.

    Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.

    Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.

    The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?

    The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.

    The membership decides the leader, Nick. There can be no coup. But you have a choice to make. At this moment in British history - unprecedented, uncertain and dangerous - is Jeremy Corbyn really the best that Labour can do? Is he the leader we need to speak to and for this fractured country? Can he unite it? It's not Corbyn or a "Blairite". It could be Corbyn or someone else from the left. The membership has a huge responsibility. It's your call. Just accept, though, that you and Labour will be judged for all time on what you decide.

    Agree with all of you. But Sean and SO are talking about what Labour needs, and Nick about what Labour can deliver.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,061
    edited June 2016

    The Labour party experiences the establishment against the 'little people'.
    Nah, it's just fed up being led by a useless leader who back peddled the biggest vote of our lives

    Politics is deadly serious. Labour needs a serious leader.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    Johnson is a traitor to the country. Even Osborne over Johnson.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,834
    Nice article, btw Richard.

    Someone is thinking it all through, which is reassuring (would actually have liked it to be a bit longer).

    Two comments.

    While in many ways as important and profound, I am slightly uncomfortable with your use of the military analogy of Afghan, Iraq and Libya. Plenty of people died in those conflicts, and just because as you say, the post-"conflict" phases might not have been worked out in each case including here, I don't think it wholly appropriate to invoke the military operations.

    Also, although people say they would be happy with EEA/EFTA, I am curious to know how the question was formulated. I think you conflate this preference with the clear view on immigration (link) which people expressed.

    But a good piece, many thanks.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,969

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal

    I'd say a PP+Cs is most likely. Just can't see PSOE throwing their hats in with PP. There's far too much history.

    We will see but they are still short
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,960

    If the new PM announces that we have two options, EEA or WTF true rules and full immigration controls, and gives us a choice via a referendum, it will be 70% EFTA.

    The next GE would be interesting. 100 seats for UKIP?

    SeanT said:

    Very interesting article from one of our most thoughtful posters. I hope he'll do more.

    The difficulty is that we have a multiply divided electorate and a choice of binary decisions. As Richard observes, the emotional force of the Brexit campaign was immigration, and if a deal is done that doesn't address it, a lot of people are going to be very angry indeed. The obvious beneficiary is UKI, but if a Conservative government has delivered such a deal, I suspect that they would be disproportionately affected by the anger, and it's possible that this would deliver a Labour government offering an alternative policy of seeking to reverse withdrawal while promising an effort on free movement.

    But full-fat withdrawal without EEA access will clearly run into a flatly hostile EU and as Richard says it's not obvious that there would be a Parliamentary majority for it.

    In the absence of (a) a clear Tory leader (b) a clear Labour leader (c) a consensus among Brexit supporters about what they wanted or (d) any serious Government planning for this event, it's completely impossible to tell where we're going.

    What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.

    Great.

    Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
    As an ex-Labour member I have to say that if there ever was a right time to indulge in a Corbyn-type leadership this is definitely not it. Tragic really. How on earth has the country sleep-walked from where we were this time last year to where we are now?

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652
    felix said:

    Nearly 90% now with PP/Cs up to 168 - so no absolute majority but the centre right have done well in Spain.

    Yes, if you add the Canaries on, there's no way for a Left wing coalition to find a way through.

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:
    In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
    Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
    Didn't you vote to Leave?

    In order to kick the establishment?

    What did you expect?
    I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.

    I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.

    I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.

    I guess I expected too much?

    You proclaimed yourself a 100% Leaver. You can't rewrite history that quickly.
    Well yeah, I went from 60/40 to 100, by which I meant I had DECIDED. And I voted LEAVE

    That never meant I was 100% certain it was the right thing, as any one who reads PB can attest I was having doubts and worries right up to the last couple of hours. In my normal bipolar way.

    I am now feeling some Bremorse. I did not expect the reaction by all sides to be so spectacularly crap and hapless. My prime minister weeping? FFS. Man up.

    If we are all reduced to gnawing bones by November I promise to crawl to Lib Dem HQ and make penance by flailing myself with highly creased pairs of Chris Huhne's trousers.


    No. If it all goes to hell in a handbasket, blame the Remainders in government for maliciously causing the problems. There is absolutely no reason for there to be major problems, other than certain persons want there to be, to make a point.

    Sheer fantasy.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,018

    perdix said:

    PAW said:

    Hmm. German foreign minister calls for USA trops to leave Eastern Europe - says their presence is provocative.

    I guess he prefers Russian troops instead?
    I believe the German FM has recently visited Putin and made friendly noises. The Germans were always ambivalent about Russia - they would like to do more trade with them in spite of historically hiding behind Uncle Sam's skirts when the Ruskies threatened.

    Brexit increases Russian influence, or rather reduces our influence in the Continent to Russia's benefit. Not WW3, but a nudge in the needle toward the forces of anti-democracy.
    I don't see how ceasing to prevent Germany's wish (if they have one) of being friends with a huge country they share a landmass with is anti-democracy.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,374

    Oh, and Richard, an excellent, eloquent piece; it goes without saying.

    Agreed.

    My thanks to all the PB guest writers.
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78

    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    Johnson is a traitor to the country. Even Osborne over Johnson.
    Given recent events, I would have hoped the word "traitor" could have been retired from this debate.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,424
    It's illustrative of the difference in political culture between Britain and Europe that after this rejection of their orthodoxy, the British PM had to resign, but the multitudinous EU leaders are all still trying to dictate what comes next, looking bemused and annoyed that the British PM has resigned so they have no-one to deal with.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:


    What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.

    Great.

    Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.

    Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.

    The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?

    The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.

    The membership decides the leader, Nick. There can be no coup. But you have a choice to make. At this moment in British history - unprecedented, uncertain and dangerous - is Jeremy Corbyn really the best that Labour can do? Is he the leader we need to speak to and for this fractured country? Can he unite it? It's not Corbyn or a "Blairite". It could be Corbyn or someone else from the left. The membership has a huge responsibility. It's your call. Just accept, though, that you and Labour will be judged for all time on what you decide.

    Agree with all of you. But Sean and SO are talking about what Labour needs, and Nick about what Labour can deliver.
    And that surely is why Labour are doomed under Corbyn. When you can't deliver what is necessary then you cease to have a purpose.

    It is, as Ali Campbell said earlier, an existential moment for Labour. Get it wrong and they are doomed to split and die.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    It would be seriously funny to read the threads on here if Osborne became PM - I'd love it.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,867
    edited June 2016
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    It is difficult to see where REJOINING the EU, after Brexit has happened, and with presumably none of the favourable terms currently enjoyed, would attract ANY support in the country whatsoever!

    Then you don't understand the perspective of some of the young people who actually voted. Their prime focus is the work/study/travel/cultural opportunities they stand to lose, and a rejection of the type of country many on the Leave side appear to want. LibDem HQ has today been flooded with applications to join, particularly from the young. As a step towards rebuilding one of the party's pre-Clegg constituencies, its a start.

    And certainly the Tories, and probably Labour, are going in the opposite direction.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,969
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

    Good, what we need now is to delay exit while the EU infights and try and get the best deal possible. It is brutal to say it but we now need populists to win almost everywhere, the more chaos and anti establishment parties do well the better our relative position will be
    What's become of you, HYUFD? You seem to have become a bit of a revolutionary!
    We have to now, Brexit occurred and we have to put national interest first and it may be horrible to say but that would include Trump winning the US presidency and Le Pen the presidency in France
    Sounds like you have eschewed the Norway or Switzerland or Canada model and have plumped instead for a direct move to the North Korean one.
    No, just realpolitik. We can still try for an EFTA deal with Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein which preserves some elements of the single market and free movement. UKIP may protest a little but the referendum was about leaving the EU not ending all immigration and trade completely
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,374
    HaroldO said:

    SeanT said:

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    Yes, I agree with this. Not that it should worry us Brits, or that we have a say any more (hmmm, that does feel quite nice, all that ghastly EU thing is OVER...) but Juncker by any account has failed. The second biggest EU nation left on his watch. He fucked up. It's as bad as it gets.

    Equally, an entire generation of EU politicians failed. Brexit is bad bad bad for Europe. Potentially worse for them, and their project, than it is for us.

    They should have realised the danger, and given us something on Free Movement.

    But that brings us back to Cameron. Why was his deal so shit? How bad a politician is he? "I'd like to be prime minister because I think I'd be quite good at it". It turned out he was about as bad at being prime minister as it is possible to imagine.

    I wonder how he feels now. Given his background he must be close to suicidality.
    His deal was poor because as far as the EU was concerned he should have nothing, nothing at all. What he got was due to any skills he had at negotiating.
    To criticise him for a poor deal is to assume there was a better one behind door number two, just waiting for some hard work to get. There wasn't.
    Telling the world beforehand that he wouldn't walk away without a deal is pretty much guaranteed to get you a shit deal.

    As happened.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    Johnson is a traitor to the country. Even Osborne over Johnson.
    You may have voted Tory before, but we definitely don't need people with that attitude supporting us.

    You might prefer the moral purity of the Lib Dems.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,327
    I've just been retweeted by Louise Mensch.

    This is worse than when Dave resigned.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Agree re Labour needing to bring the country back together.

    We don't need a class warrior we need an inspiring uniting figure to restore our faith in our country.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    May is steadily shortening.

    110 MPs are needed to make the Final 2. There surely have to be at least 110 MPs who will vote for what I would describe as a "Remain mainstream loyalist".

    May fits that bill way better than anyone else - so she surely has a very strong chance of making the Final 2.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,374
    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    And your response if I may ask ?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    With just 28% to go in the Spanish general election, it's the PP that has most outperformed expectations, and also a real surprise that the PSOE beat Podemos.

    The Brexit effect?

    A PP/Cs deal now becoming a possibility if PSOE abstains.

    This is not good for Podemos. The low turnout has really hurt them.

    PP + C are probably 1 to 4 seats ahead of the same point in the polls last time. Short of the 175, but boy has Podemos underperformed the exits.

    With all the regional parties, I am not sure 175 will be necessary.

    Brexit may well be a factor. Plays well for status quo. And there could be a little Gibraltar element at play within that. PP may be most trusted to do the best by Spain on that and Brexit generally.

    PP still well short of a majority though and relying on regional parties is no recipe for stability, I would still not rule out a PP-PSOE deal

    I'd say a PP+Cs is most likely. Just can't see PSOE throwing their hats in with PP. There's far too much history.

    We will see but they are still short
    They're on 168 but i think there are one or two from Canaries to add to that and there could be some oddbods elsewhere so they might just about do it.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MontyHall said:

    SeanT said:

    MontyHall said:

    MontyHall said:

    SeanT said:

    I followed up that Polish immigrants story. It's here


    https://twitter.com/b0redinbucks

    Very sad. It does look like real nastiness emerging; perhaps it is just coincidence. Pray to God it all goes away.

    A quite amazing coincidence.

    The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
    This nasty undercurrent won't go away so easily, because part of the Leave campaign consciously deployed it as a weapon, Im afraid.
    The story has been published in the Huffington Post, which links to facebook. On there people are claiming the photographs are from 2012 and therefore nothing to do with "Brexit". The person that posted the photos on twitter seems to have an agenda, if you read his timeline. It is almost certain to be fiction.
    That's interesting. I did look at his timeline and wonder. It was a little convenient. Hmm.
    Of course when you or I see people strewn across the street on a Saturday night having been beaten up, we start taking photographs of them don't we? Then we hang around until the ambulance arrives and take some more
    You ever seen youtube? It's awash with exactly this sort of thing. People would rather film than help for 30 seconds of fame.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Starfall said:

    Finding an answer to the British question was one of Juncker's five priorities on appointment:

    http://juncker.epp.eu/my-priorities

    He failed. He should resign.

    It's simply accountability.
    It would be a faint sign that the EU had the vaguest glimmerings why it is so unpopular in so many quarters.
    But he won't resign, and their shit-show will rumble on, which must - surely - give you a faint thrill of relief that we are now out of this charade of nondemocracy.

    Yes London will soon be a wasteland populated mainly by racist orcs, but at least we aren't paying for Juncker's third chauffeur.

    I feel my mood has switched. I went from gin to wine. Interesting.
    There is much I dislike about the EU. But I preferred dealing with its many deficiencies to watching Britain visibly shrink, as it is doing now.

    I feel I lost my country on Thursday. I have to reevaluate my identity now.

    My consolation is that politics for the foreseeable future is going to be compulsive viewing, like a TV documentary showing emergency surgery going wrong.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,061
    Labour has a simple job. Provide forensic opposition and a viable alternative government. This is important and urgent.

    So Corbyn has to go and the time is now.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,960


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/


    Won't it be ironic if Brexit is the catalyst for the EU to bring in the reforms that we would have liked and we are left on the outside with our noses pressed up against the window!.
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    The problem with their position is there is no way we would be allowed back with our existing opt-outs. We would have to go in on their terms, not ours. So yes to the Euro, yes to open borders etc etc etc

    I can't see that getting mass popular support
    Yeah, once we're out, we're out. The tide is turning on the EU Project. Iceland has now abandoned its hopes of membership. Switzerland said a final no this month. Norway will never join

    It's just a series of poorer eastern countries that *might* join, all of them expecting more money out, than they put in.

    Unless Britain literally collapses, it is highly unlikely we would ever rejoin, once we properly quit.
    If the EU somehow makes the reforms it so desperately needs, and proves to be a success, I don't think we should rule out the UK joining in 20 years or so.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,652
    I'm glad I drew Belgium in the work sweep stake.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    It is difficult to see where REJOINING the EU, after Brexit has happened, and with presumably none of the favourable terms currently enjoyed, would attract ANY support in the country whatsoever!

    Then you don't understand the perspective of some of the young people who actually voted. Their prime focus is the work/study/travel/cultural opportunities they stand to lose, and a rejection of the type of country many on the Leave side appear to want. LibDem HQ has today been flooded with applications to join, particularly from the young. As a step towards rebuilding one of the party's pre-Clegg constituencies, its a start.

    And certainly the Tories, and probably Labour, are going in the opposite direction.
    And abandoning virtually every other constituency in the country.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Starfall said:

    kle4 said:

    Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
    I always liked Clegg. He certainly seems better than Farron, who is now arguing the Liberal Democrats should ignore democracy and refuse to abide by the referendum result.
    I thought he was arguing that the UK should seek to rejoin after we have left? That's not ignoring the result, it's saying they think it a mistake and will campaign for it to be reversed (though I doubt it will be successful). Ignoring democracy would be saying we should just not leave at all, without any sort of democratic counter to the referendum.
    Yes, I understand the LibDems are unhappy at being misreported. Contrary to some of the press they are not following Lammy in suggesting that they will try and vote down the referendum. They are simply saying that their platform going forward is to get a deal that keeps the Uk as close to the EU as possible and to support our staying/rejoining depending on things pan out.

    As a political move it is quite smart, since there is clearly a big and widening space in the market there, at least south of the border.
    It is difficult to see where REJOINING the EU, after Brexit has happened, and with presumably none of the favourable terms currently enjoyed, would attract ANY support in the country whatsoever!

    Then you don't understand the perspective of some of the young people who actually voted. Their prime focus is the work/study/travel/cultural opportunities they stand to lose, and a rejection of the type of country many on the Leave side appear to want. LibDem HQ has today been flooded with applications to join, particularly from the young. As a step towards rebuilding one of the party's pre-Clegg constituencies, its a start.

    And certainly the Tories, and probably Labour, are going in the opposite direction.
    Ah, the young "vote".
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    bunnco said:

    Senior Minister [but not Sec of State - level] just canvassed my opinion over The Choice to be made in Parliament: Johnson, May or [seriously] Osborne.

    Osborne? If he actually considers Osborne an option, your minister should abstain. He's clearly on the wrong planet.

    ------

    Do you think the membership would be willing to vote for a Remain candidate?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,834
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:


    It's all kicking off...

    Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

    Good, what we need now is to delay exit while the EU infights and try and get the best deal possible. It is brutal to say it but we now need populists to win almost everywhere, the more chaos and anti establishment parties do well the better our relative position will be
    What's become of you, HYUFD? You seem to have become a bit of a revolutionary!
    We have to now, Brexit occurred and we have to put national interest first and it may be horrible to say but that would include Trump winning the US presidency and Le Pen the presidency in France
    Sounds like you have eschewed the Norway or Switzerland or Canada model and have plumped instead for a direct move to the North Korean one.
    No, just realpolitik. We can still try for an EFTA deal with Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein which preserves some elements of the single market and free movement. UKIP may protest a little but the referendum was about leaving the EU not ending all immigration and trade completely
    Same link for you here.

    My point, however, was that very few countries have true sovereignty. North Korea is one. Aside from them, it is compromises and we have now exited a group where compromises where required, but which gave us unambiguous benefits, and are now in a position where we don't know what compromises we will have to make and to what benefit.
This discussion has been closed.