Very sad. It does look like real nastiness emerging; perhaps it is just coincidence. Pray to God it all goes away.
A quite amazing coincidence.
The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
I'd really prefer May to Boris, all things considered - since I see no way even passionate Remainers to prevent a Brexit, there's no harm to the Tories in appointing a mild Remainer. And since immigration is apparently not going to be touched, any failings of hers there would presumably hurt them no more than it would already.
odysseanproject @odysseanproject Those saying it will be EEA and free movement also wrong
There is a line of thought - called the Liechtenstein Option - whereby we could have EEA membership but also be able to control immigration. As far as I can see it based on a very partial reading of the treaties and I think for the UK would be a non-starter.
You can allow immigration, but make the UK a much less attractive destination for unskilled immigration.
Provided, of course, you did the sensible thing and made all benefits contribution based.
That would require a 'credit' system as well to ensure that people from the UK did not have their safety net cut off.
One of things various governments have done is fail to respond to the world as it is, for example by changing the benefit system.
For example, one complaint is that Poles in the UK claim child benefit for children living in Poland. It would surely be easy to stop this for British people as well, it should depend on where the child is living. To claim CB you normally have to be the primary carer and I don't see how this can be the case if the child lives in another country.
They have also recently made it much harder to claim Income Support as a lone parent, but could have done this years ago as the EU protects freedom to live and work across the EU, not freedom to be indigent.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Spain counts at polling stations (like nearly all countries do) which is why it is so fast, counting started 7pm our time.
It's the 3 rows with Podemos in plus the ECP, don't think there are any more.
Presumably Boris Johnson will be publishing his weekly column as usual in the Telegraph tonight. I expect it will be particularly keenly read this week.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
But even with Catalonia, Podemos are under-performing a lot by my reckoning, their current 21% won't be rising much even after Catalonia is added in. Is that right?
EU migration to the EU is bound to reduce in the next six months as news permeates through to potential EU workers of the hostility of SOME UK residents. Vacancies in the care sector will rise as those Brexiters who "want their country back" turn their noses up at the prospect of doing such work.
The irony is that pensioners in retirement homes will be paying a lot more for their care now that they have achieved what they wished for.
Serves them right.
One of my elderly relatives in sheltered accommodation says she cannot watch the news. She went for Leave, and is having #Bregret already.
While a second referendum would be politically unpopular with the chattering classes, Can you see the MPs from areas that voted leave by 60% wanting to vote through a deal with one?
Not even slightly - hence why Labour won't back it, and half the Tories were Leavers anyway, so it won't happen.
Probably more than half the Tories are Leavers but many kept quite out of party loyalty of career ambition.
There is a troubling cadre of Tory MPs who told selection committees they were Leavers, then went Remain when Osborne was offering them advancement when he was leader, and who are now going to be crawling back to their electorate saying they are Leavers after all. Unless there is a fudge deal that allows us to Remain.
It's not a very edifying spectacle.
Going to be an interesting next CCP meeting for Alan Mak MP, after getting the job for being a nailed-on eurosceptic, then coming out as a naked careerist and attaching his lips to the remain arse, only for his constituency to get one of the largest Leave votes in the country.
“Our current relationship with the EU doesn’t work for Britain. Things have got to change. We need to get tough with Europe… we shouldn’t be afraid to leave.”
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Spain counts at polling stations (like nearly all countries do) which is why it is so fast, counting started 7pm our time.
It's the 3 rows with Podemos in plus the ECP, don't think there are any more.
Of course, the four Podemos strands don't have identical manifestos and actually disagree on some fairly significant issues. Last election, they lost a number of MPs (who went independent) for doctrinal reasons.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
I think the Catalan Podemos is standing as a separate entity, as is the Valencian one. If you add their projected seats to Podemos/IU you get to 55. But that will change throughout the evening.
Cat Smith @CatSmithMP 6h6 hours ago Labour is a democratic socialist party whose members democratically elected Jeremy Corbyn less than a year ago. MPs should respect that.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
But even with Catalonia, Podemos are under-performing a lot by my reckoning, their current 21% won't be rising much even after Catalonia is added in. Is that right?
Comparing like-with-like, it's neck and neck between Podemos and PSOE, both look to have secured 22-24%, which Cs + PP are likely on 45% between them.
Cat Smith @CatSmithMP 6h6 hours ago Labour is a democratic socialist party whose members democratically elected Jeremy Corbyn less than a year ago. MPs should respect that.
I saw Dawn Butler on Sky News saying "Jeremy Corbyn will be leader until he decides to step down after the next election"
GB is still part of EU. We have not even told them that we are leaving. The way things are panning out, we may never do as was envisaged by the Brexiters.
Very sad. It does look like real nastiness emerging; perhaps it is just coincidence. Pray to God it all goes away.
A quite amazing coincidence.
The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
This nasty undercurrent won't go away so easily, because part of the Leave campaign consciously deployed it as a weapon, Im afraid.
Long time lurker. Decided to de-lurk for surely the most chaotic moment in British politics in the post-war period.
Three days on, the mood among friends and colleagues (yes, in AB London) is still of grief, anger, disbelief, and derision. But also sober talk of new plans : deferring or abandoning investments & hires; considering relocation or opportunities abroad. The fallout is only beginning and cannot be measured in short-term fluctuations in the FTSE or the pound.
Can I say again what an arrogant failure Cameron is? Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum? This is not democracy - and was never intended to be. It was a sham - a tactical display of shadow-puppetry; totally at odds with this country's traditions. He has debauched the constitution, put the Union at risk, broken the economy, and re-toxified the Tories with a vengeance.
I will vote for a Labour leader who can unify, heal - and negotiate hard for this country's interests to stay in the EU or damn well near it (EFTA with knobs on, as Sean T says). I believe he (or she) would win an election on that basis. I say this as life-long Conservative party voter.
Presumably Boris Johnson will be publishing his weekly column as usual in the Telegraph tonight. I expect it will be particularly keenly read this week.
Cat Smith @CatSmithMP 6h6 hours ago Labour is a democratic socialist party whose members democratically elected Jeremy Corbyn less than a year ago. MPs should respect that.
I saw Dawn Butler on Sky News saying "Jeremy Corbyn will be leader until he decides to step down after the next election"
When elected last year Corbyn himself promised to serve "the full 5 years"!
odysseanproject @odysseanproject Those saying it will be EEA and free movement also wrong
There is a line of thought - called the Liechtenstein Option - whereby we could have EEA membership but also be able to control immigration. As far as I can see it based on a very partial reading of the treaties and I think for the UK would be a non-starter.
You can allow immigration, but make the UK a much less attractive destination for unskilled immigration.
Provided, of course, you did the sensible thing and made all benefits contribution based.
That would require a 'credit' system as well to ensure that people from the UK did not have their safety net cut off.
One of things various governments have done is fail to respond to the world as it is, for example by changing the benefit system.
For example, one complaint is that Poles in the UK claim child benefit for children living in Poland. It would surely be easy to stop this for British people as well, it should depend on where the child is living. To claim CB you normally have to be the primary carer and I don't see how this can be the case if the child lives in another country.
They have also recently made it much harder to claim Income Support as a lone parent, but could have done this years ago as the EU protects freedom to live and work across the EU, not freedom to be indigent.
Good plans. Could there not also be the option of qualifying for benefits if you have contributed x amount or each year you live in the country counts x (including children) Game the system so that by 21 you hit max benefit anyway?
I'd have thought it was done because our status cannot have changed since we haven't left the EU yet, but Brits may be confused about the realities so the sign is there to confirm to Brits things are currently unchanged.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
But even with Catalonia, Podemos are under-performing a lot by my reckoning, their current 21% won't be rising much even after Catalonia is added in. Is that right?
Comparing like-with-like, it's neck and neck between Podemos and PSOE, both look to have secured 22-24%, which Cs + PP are likely on 45% between them.
What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.
Great.
Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.
The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?
The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
Very interesting article from one of our most thoughtful posters. I hope he'll do more.
The difficulty is that we have a multiply divided electorate and a choice of binary decisions. As Richard observes, the emotional force of the Brexit campaign was immigration, and if a deal is done that doesn't address it, a lot of people are going to be very angry indeed. The obvious beneficiary is UKI, but if a Conservative government has delivered such a deal, I suspect that they would be disproportionately affected by the anger, and it's possible that this would deliver a Labour government offering an alternative policy of seeking to reverse withdrawal while promising an effort on free movement.
But full-fat withdrawal without EEA access will clearly run into a flatly hostile EU and as Richard says it's not obvious that there would be a Parliamentary majority for it.
In the absence of (a) a clear Tory leader (b) a clear Labour leader (c) a consensus among Brexit supporters about what they wanted or (d) any serious Government planning for this event, it's completely impossible to tell where we're going.
What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.
Great.
Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.
I've been very surprised and saddened to see Nick's unflinching support for Corbyn. SeanT's post is, as you say, bang on.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
But even with Catalonia, Podemos are under-performing a lot by my reckoning, their current 21% won't be rising much even after Catalonia is added in. Is that right?
Comparing like-with-like, it's neck and neck between Podemos and PSOE, both look to have secured 22-24%, which Cs + PP are likely on 45% between them.
Basically deadlock.
I take it that PP get squeezed in Catalonia if Podemos and the Cat Nats do well? It does seem there's no real difference in between the last result and this one.
brexiteers: don't you dare use the civil service. remainers: we have no plan for brexit. brexiteers: you should have used the civil service.
When the decision to have a referendum was made, some sort of contingency plans for each outcome is surely basic good government.
Of course not. Cameron was not going to lose.
That is the point. There didn't seem to be any recognition that they could possibly lose this Referendum. Everybody was lined up to support Remain. Just a rag tag and bobtail putting the case for Leave. The shock over the last couple of weeks, when it just might have started to be looking to be slipping away, must have been mortifying. Even then, they didn't believe it would happen.
And that was the conceit at the heart of this Referendum. Whatever shit Cameron came back with from the EU, it would be enough to get the Referendum passed. Leave was never a real choice. Except....
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Agree completely. Transpires that everyone thought Remain would win, so why bother planning? Serious plans were in place, in case we voted Yes in 2014, and that was a much longer shot. But no one bothered? And now no one appears to be in charge. Shambolic. No wonder people want rid of the 'political class'.
If Labour got a decent leader I'd be tempted to vote for them right now.
Gisela?
Why not?
Brexiteer BUT, BUT she's Labour. And a woman. And an immigrant!
Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum?
Us, twice (as with SindyRef).
I can only assume requiring more than a simple majority would never have gotten through parliament*, or surely they would have out such rules on both, as there is an argument for it.
*reason number 3 nothing will happen re calls for a new referendum.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
You proclaimed yourself a 100% Leaver. You can't rewrite history that quickly.
I'd really prefer May to Boris, all things considered - since I see no way even passionate Remainers to prevent a Brexit, there's no harm to the Tories in appointing a mild Remainer. And since immigration is apparently not going to be touched, any failings of hers there would presumably hurt them no more than it would already.
May has a long track record of doing feck all about immigration while at the Home Office, why should a move to No10 cause a change of heart
interesting overview. My understanding of the possibilities, for what it's worth, has changed over the past couple of weeks. I assumed there would be a post-Brexit consensus in Britain for EEA, for the reasons you give. I assumed also that it was an option that was there for our taking, if we wished it and that EU partners would be also happy with the arrangement because it was off the shelf and wouldn't require negotiation. I was also clear that the EEA wouldn' actually work for Britain because ultimately we would not accept being told to implement directives and laws that we had no influence in drafting and also would not readily submit to supranational court judgments from a very weak institution.
I still think there will be a consensus for the EEA in the UK. I now think EU partners unlikely to offer it to us. Partly because they see it as cherry picking - the UK getting the benefits of the EU but not committing to it. And partly, frankly, they don't trust us to play by the spirit of an arrangement that requires higher levels of trust than the EU, which is much more formalised.
If i am right that the EEA won't be offered at least in the form that Norway has, and of course full membership of the EU has been rejected by us at the ballot, we are probably looking at some sort of looser free trade agreement.
In response to other comments, EFTA is a grouping of non EU countries and isn't the same as the EEA. It is likely the UK will join EFTA but it doesn't necessarily mean it will be part of the EEA.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
Give it some time - not the greatest start, but too soon for it to be unavoidably bad.
No Name @PrimevalReturn · 10m10 minutes ago I can honestly say if @timfarron is leader of the @LibDems when the 2020 election comes around I will not be voting for them #DemocracyWins
What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.
Great.
Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.
The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?
The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
The four Podemos strands I can see only seem to be hitting around 22% which PSOE seem to be doing better than that. Are there later reporting areas which will swing more towards the various Podemos strands? Am I missing a Podemos strand?
I take it Spain uses electronic counting by the speed of the results?
Later in the evening is Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, which will benefit Podemos a bit and Citizens a lot.
But even with Catalonia, Podemos are under-performing a lot by my reckoning, their current 21% won't be rising much even after Catalonia is added in. Is that right?
Comparing like-with-like, it's neck and neck between Podemos and PSOE, both look to have secured 22-24%, which Cs + PP are likely on 45% between them.
Basically deadlock.
I take it that PP get squeezed in Catalonia if Podemos and the Cat Nats do well? It does seem there's no real difference in between the last result and this one.
Essentially Podemos has slightly underperformed the polls, and PSOE outperformed them.
PSOE + P is not a government, even with the Catalans. PP + C is not a government, even with the Canarians.
What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.
Great.
Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.
The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?
The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
Replace "SeanT" with "the voters" in that first sentence, and you might just begin to see the problem Labour has.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
I expected exactly this.
This victory is miraculous. Truly, stars aligning, one in a million, miraculous. It was never meant to happen. Now it has, but the Remain establishment will try to divide and rule, cause as much panic as possible, and do the 'referenda until we get the right answer' thing. Did you just expect them to shake hands, say, 'oh ok then, fair does' and back to the pavillion for tea?
However she has advocated blocking the will of the British people.
I leave you to decide.
At least she sounds like she's not shitting herself, nor is she sobbing inside her office.
That's no justification though is it.
Of course there is.
She is pointing out how scary, unstable and risky being part of the UK is. She isn't talking to you or anyone else outside Scotland. She is marking her card to win Independence and quite possibly will move towards that goal very soon.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
I expected exactly this.
This victory is miraculous. Truly, stars aligning, one in a million, miraculous. It was never meant to happen. Now it has, but the Remain establishment will try to divide and rule, cause as much panic as possible, and do the 'referenda until we get the right answer' thing. Did you just expect them to shake hands, say, 'oh ok then, fair does' and back to the pavillion for tea?
No Name @PrimevalReturn · 10m10 minutes ago I can honestly say if @timfarron is leader of the @LibDems when the 2020 election comes around I will not be voting for them #DemocracyWins
They're probably just happy to be talked about, they might be set up to automatically retweet any reference to the LDs.
Though why the acrimony toward Farron? About his EU stance I suppose - nothing undemocratic about saying they'll seek to rejoin, they'd only be able to so so if they and/or someone else won a majority after all.
interesting overview. My understanding of the possibilities, for what it's worth, has changed over the past couple of weeks. I assumed there would be a post-Brexit consensus in Britain for EEA, for the reasons you give. I assumed also that it was an option that was there for our taking, if we wished it and that EU partners would be also happy with the arrangement because it was off the shelf and wouldn't require negotiation. I was also clear that the EEA wouldn' actually work for Britain because ultimately we would not accept being told to implement directives and laws that we had no influence in drafting and also would not readily submit to supranational court judgments from a very weak institution.
I still think there will be a consensus for the EEA in the UK. I now think EU partners unlikely to offer it to us. Partly because they see it as cherry picking - the UK getting the benefits of the EU but not committing to it. And partly, frankly, they don't trust us to play by the spirit of an arrangement that requires higher levels of trust than the EU, which is much more formalised.
If i am right that the EEA won't be offered at least in the form that Norway has, and of course full membership of the EU has been rejected by us at the ballot, we are probably looking at some sort of looser free trade agreement.
In response to other comments, EFTA is a grouping of non EU countries and isn't the same as the EEA. It is likely the UK will join EFTA but it doesn't necessarily mean it will be part of the EEA.
I would repeat my assertion made on here many times before that the interpretation of the treaties shows that as long as we moved from the EU to EFTA we would retain membership of the EEA. We are independent signatories and would transfer our membership in exactly the same way that Sweden and Finland did going in the other direction.
Spain could literally get exactly the same result today (in terms of PP + C vs PSOE + P) as December.
Better chance of a deal though? I mean, if you fail and go back to the people and say 'Are you sure this is the configuration of parties you wanted' and they come back and say yes, maybe you work a little harder to work something out.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
You proclaimed yourself a 100% Leaver. You can't rewrite history that quickly.
I voted Remain but we should now Leave and get on with it, get Andrea Leadsom and Gove to sort it out with Field and Stuart, they were the brains of Leave and have Boris as frontman with Farage as the supporting act.
However she has advocated blocking the will of the British people.
I leave you to decide.
At least she sounds like she's not shitting herself, nor is she sobbing inside her office.
That's no justification though is it.
Of course there is.
She is pointing out how scary, unstable and risky being part of the UK is. She isn't talking to you or anyone else outside Scotland. She is marking her card to win Independence and quite possibly will move towards that goal very soon.
On that you are correct. the Westminster mob are too caught up on their own problems
What you need is a serious leader with a brain and a backbone, not some nutty old Trot with Stalinist advisors. The country is in crisis. Actual proper crisis, probably the biggest we've faced since the war. And the Shadow Cabinet, instead of opposing a clueless government, has decided to slowly resign en masse.
Great.
Get a fecking grip. Serve your nation. And this means people like you getting over your adolescent Corbyn thing and making Labour relevant and electable. We need an Opposition. My god, we need it.
Absolutely spot on. This is no longer about Labour trundling along to a meh kinda defeat in 2020. Our country is in flux, it is rudderless and it needs leadership. A credible opposition that looks like an alternative government is part of that. Nick and other Labour members have to let go of the comfort blanket and think about the bigger picture. If they don't they will kill the Labour party.
The day I take advice from SeanT on Labour Party politics will be the day after hell freezes over. However, if the Shadow Cabinet shares his view and Southam's view, they should be concentrating on the clueless government, not trying to engineer a coup in the teeth of the membership so as to promote who-knows-who to lead the party to support who-knows-what. Rejoin the EU? Invade Syria? Privatise some more? Raise taxes? Lower taxes? Or what?
The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
The membership decides the leader, Nick. There can be no coup. But you have a choice to make. At this moment in British history - unprecedented, uncertain and dangerous - is Jeremy Corbyn really the best that Labour can do? Is he the leader we need to speak to and for this fractured country? Can he unite it? It's not Corbyn or a "Blairite". It could be Corbyn or someone else from the left. The membership has a huge responsibility. It's your call. Just accept, though, that you and Labour will be judged for all time on what you decide.
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
Long time lurker. Decided to de-lurk for surely the most chaotic moment in British politics in the post-war period.
Three days on, the mood among friends and colleagues (yes, in AB London) is still of grief, anger, disbelief, and derision. But also sober talk of new plans : deferring or abandoning investments & hires; considering relocation or opportunities abroad. The fallout is only beginning and cannot be measured in short-term fluctuations in the FTSE or the pound.
Can I say again what an arrogant failure Cameron is? Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum? This is not democracy - and was never intended to be. It was a sham - a tactical display of shadow-puppetry; totally at odds with this country's traditions. He has debauched the constitution, put the Union at risk, broken the economy, and re-toxified the Tories with a vengeance.
I will vote for a Labour leader who can unify, heal - and negotiate hard for this country's interests to stay in the EU or damn well near it (EFTA with knobs on, as Sean T says). I believe he (or she) would win an election on that basis. I say this as life-long Conservative party voter.
Where are all these grief-ridden people? I've been out in London all weekend and life is continuing exactly as normal, Pride was a great success yesterday and the Italian family my girlfriend lives with is completely unperturbed. I was distracted from my viewing of 'Falling Skies' last night by the Portuguese family who live down the road celebrating their goal v Croatia, and today in Clapham the Irish were having joyous half-time cigarettes outside the pub.
In a democracy sometimes you have to accept the side you voted for lost. The country has voted to leave the EU - no ifs, no buts - and it doesn't mean Armageddon. We are not a banana republic: we do not ignore or quash election results or our political opponents.
People need to calm down. Maybe stop checking the news for 5 minutes, go outside, and see that everyday life goes on unchanged.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
You proclaimed yourself a 100% Leaver. You can't rewrite history that quickly.
If we are all reduced to gnawing bones by November I promise to crawl to Lib Dem HQ and make penance by flailing myself with highly creased pairs of Chris Huhne's trousers.
Well, saves any others with Bremorse a trip I suppose!
Just stepping back, as far as I can see all that has happened between Friday and Sunday, is that the EU has been making contradictory noises about whether they should try and force the UK to commence exit negotiations immediately, and the Labour Party have gone into meltdown. And the SNP have started making noises about independence.
Nobody seemed to have any particular issue with Cameron's actions on Friday in taking time to install a new Prime Minister before commencing formal negotiations, was happy that Carney took appropriate action to reassure the markets, and then spent Saturday ridiculing the EU for thinking it could rush us into action. And now suddenly that's all out of the window and everyone is demanding that HMG make it's position clear NOW! Why the change? Spending all day on Pb.com without coming up for air can do this sort of thing.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
Try to be a little patient. Rumours abound that Cameron is planning a Cabinet re-shuffle, which will need to contain both Leavers and Remainers. Once he has completed this task, which is unlikely to be easy, he can then initiate a healing process. Once that is well underway he can then oversee the leadership election for his successor. He has quite a lot on his plate at the moment.
Hah. I always liked Clegg, I feel despite his party being ripped to shreds under his watch history will be kinder to him about how the choices seemed like the right ones at the time.
While a second referendum would be politically unpopular with the chattering classes, Can you see the MPs from areas that voted leave by 60% wanting to vote through a deal with one?
Not even slightly - hence why Labour won't back it, and half the Tories were Leavers anyway, so it won't happen.
Probably more than half the Tories are Leavers but many kept quite out of party loyalty of career ambition.
There is a troubling cadre of Tory MPs who told selection committees they were Leavers, then went Remain when Osborne was offering them advancement when he was leader, and who are now going to be crawling back to their electorate saying they are Leavers after all. Unless there is a fudge deal that allows us to Remain.
Almost inconceivably, my spreadsheet is now showing PP +8, Cs -7, which means that the right wing parties will actually be up on the December election.
Of course, that's nowhere near enough to form an actual government,
Long time lurker. Decided to de-lurk for surely the most chaotic moment in British politics in the post-war period.
Three days on, the mood among friends and colleagues (yes, in AB London) is still of grief, anger, disbelief, and derision. But also sober talk of new plans : deferring or abandoning investments & hires; considering relocation or opportunities abroad. The fallout is only beginning and cannot be measured in short-term fluctuations in the FTSE or the pound.
Can I say again what an arrogant failure Cameron is? Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum? This is not democracy - and was never intended to be. It was a sham - a tactical display of shadow-puppetry; totally at odds with this country's traditions. He has debauched the constitution, put the Union at risk, broken the economy, and re-toxified the Tories with a vengeance.
I will vote for a Labour leader who can unify, heal - and negotiate hard for this country's interests to stay in the EU or damn well near it (EFTA with knobs on, as Sean T says). I believe he (or she) would win an election on that basis. I say this as life-long Conservative party voter.
Where are all these grief-ridden people? I've been out in London all weekend and life is continuing exactly as normal, Pride was a great success yesterday and the Italian family my girlfriend lives with is completely unperturbed. I was distracted from my viewing of 'Falling Skies' last night by the Portuguese family who live down the road celebrating their goal v Croatia, and today in Clapham the Irish were having joyous half-time cigarettes outside the pub.
In a democracy sometimes you have to accept the side you voted for lost. The country has voted to leave the EU - no ifs, no buts - and it doesn't mean Armageddon. We are not a banana republic: we do not ignore or quash election results or our political opponents.
People need to calm down. Maybe stop checking the news for 5 minutes, go outside, and see that everyday life goes on unchanged.
You're too sensible for this site.
Or too real world.
Tomorrow they'll be as many people talking about the events in Kings Landing as the events in Westminster.
In some ways this is the most bizarre moment of British history that I can ever remember. Feels almost like some sort of vivid dream.
Or a nightmare. A visit from the night hag, who squats on your chest.
Didn't you vote to Leave?
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
I voted to LEAVE - with great reluctance, anxiety, and sadness, as expressed on here - in expectation of the kind of plan Richard has adduced in the threader. I also expected both my government and the Brexit camp to react calmly to the result, and present their detailed policies within a few hours.
I didn't expect them to hide away. I didn't expect them to say Plan, we didn't have a plan, oh, they should have a plan, oh fuck it, let's take some crystal meth and cider.
I didn't expect Her Majesty's opposition to react to this by drinking a vat of kool aid and committing weird seppuku while their leader conducted his Shadow Cabinet meeting in a Pimlico phonebox, due to the lack of attendants.
I guess I expected too much?
You proclaimed yourself a 100% Leaver. You can't rewrite history that quickly.
Well yeah, I went from 60/40 to 100, by which I meant I had DECIDED. And I voted LEAVE
That never meant I was 100% certain it was the right thing, as any one who reads PB can attest I was having doubts and worries right up to the last couple of hours. In my normal bipolar way.
I am now feeling some Bremorse. I did not expect the reaction by all sides to be so spectacularly crap and hapless. My prime minister weeping? FFS. Man up.
If we are all reduced to gnawing bones by November I promise to crawl to Lib Dem HQ and make penance by flailing myself with highly creased pairs of Chris Huhne's trousers.
No. If it all goes to hell in a handbasket, blame the Remainders in government for maliciously causing the problems. There is absolutely no reason for there to be major problems, other than certain persons want there to be, to make a point.
Comments
The person who discovered them has tweeted hundreds of times about the negative affects of the referendum on immigrants (when he isn't trolling Gareth Bale and Ellie Goulding), then on the way home from the pub he finds two immigrants that have been beaten up. By English people natch.
For example, one complaint is that Poles in the UK claim child benefit for children living in Poland. It would surely be easy to stop this for British people as well, it should depend on where the child is living. To claim CB you normally have to be the primary carer and I don't see how this can be the case if the child lives in another country.
They have also recently made it much harder to claim Income Support as a lone parent, but could have done this years ago as the EU protects freedom to live and work across the EU, not freedom to be indigent.
What's the phrase? Oh, yes
Suck it up whiner...
It's the 3 rows with Podemos in plus the ECP, don't think there are any more.
That being said, the PP is outperfoming compared to December in everywhere that has been declared so far.
https://twitter.com/Hapoel4/status/747122686539726849
I leave you to decide.
Of course not. Cameron was not going to lose.
https://twitter.com/nour_samaha/status/747137555305422848
Labour is a democratic socialist party whose members democratically elected Jeremy Corbyn less than a year ago. MPs should respect that.
In order to kick the establishment?
What did you expect?
Basically deadlock.
@montie: The *defeated* Hammond should resign. He's sticking two fingers up to the people. Freedom of movement must end. https://t.co/VLUT5JrhDI
Although he continues to sow discord amongst his fellow travellers.
As you were
Die Welt portrays him as a bit of a shit.
http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article156587683/Europas-Brexit-Verhandler-kennt-alle-schmutzigen-Tricks.html
Long time lurker. Decided to de-lurk for surely the most chaotic moment in British politics in the post-war period.
Three days on, the mood among friends and colleagues (yes, in AB London) is still of grief, anger, disbelief, and derision. But also sober talk of new plans : deferring or abandoning investments & hires; considering relocation or opportunities abroad. The fallout is only beginning and cannot be measured in short-term fluctuations in the FTSE or the pound.
Can I say again what an arrogant failure Cameron is?
Who decides a matter of supreme constitutional and economic importance with a simple majority referendum? This is not democracy - and was never intended to be. It was a sham - a tactical display of shadow-puppetry; totally at odds with this country's traditions. He has debauched the constitution, put the Union at risk, broken the economy, and re-toxified the Tories with a vengeance.
I will vote for a Labour leader who can unify, heal - and negotiate hard for this country's interests to stay in the EU or damn well near it (EFTA with knobs on, as Sean T says). I believe he (or she) would win an election on that basis. I say this as life-long Conservative party voter.
Would be my retort.
The fundamental problem of the centre-left is that it has neither a programme nor a leader. Merely wanting to be in government and to oppose the other lot is not a respectable or viable position on its own, as Boris is demonstating at his leisure. Until they get one or preferably both, they will struggle to get a hearing in the membership.
And that was the conceit at the heart of this Referendum. Whatever shit Cameron came back with from the EU, it would be enough to get the Referendum passed. Leave was never a real choice. Except....
Why not?
Brexiteer BUT, BUT she's Labour. And a woman. And an immigrant!
Gisela!
I can only assume requiring more than a simple majority would never have gotten through parliament*, or surely they would have out such rules on both, as there is an argument for it.
*reason number 3 nothing will happen re calls for a new referendum.
Don't forget your panic exercises: WE ARE ALL DOOMED.
I'm enjoying the panic from the headless chickens of Remain, much like those who bought shares on Friday.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_government_formation
we will doubtless see developments of one sort or another tomorrow.
I still think there will be a consensus for the EEA in the UK. I now think EU partners unlikely to offer it to us. Partly because they see it as cherry picking - the UK getting the benefits of the EU but not committing to it. And partly, frankly, they don't trust us to play by the spirit of an arrangement that requires higher levels of trust than the EU, which is much more formalised.
If i am right that the EEA won't be offered at least in the form that Norway has, and of course full membership of the EU has been rejected by us at the ballot, we are probably looking at some sort of looser free trade agreement.
In response to other comments, EFTA is a grouping of non EU countries and isn't the same as the EEA. It is likely the UK will join EFTA but it doesn't necessarily mean it will be part of the EEA.
Liberal Democrats Retweeted
No Name @PrimevalReturn · 10m10 minutes ago
I can honestly say if @timfarron is leader of the @LibDems when the 2020 election comes around I will not be voting for them #DemocracyWins
PSOE + P is not a government, even with the Catalans.
PP + C is not a government, even with the Canarians.
If Rajoy steps down, then PP + PSOE works.
Is the mood fatalistic in Primrose tonight?
This victory is miraculous. Truly, stars aligning, one in a million, miraculous. It was never meant to happen. Now it has, but the Remain establishment will try to divide and rule, cause as much panic as possible, and do the 'referenda until we get the right answer' thing. Did you just expect them to shake hands, say, 'oh ok then, fair does' and back to the pavillion for tea?
She is pointing out how scary, unstable and risky being part of the UK is. She isn't talking to you or anyone else outside Scotland. She is marking her card to win Independence and quite possibly will move towards that goal very soon.
PP 31.32%
PS 23.96%
Podemos 21.39%
Cs 11.63%
Though why the acrimony toward Farron? About his EU stance I suppose - nothing undemocratic about saying they'll seek to rejoin, they'd only be able to so so if they and/or someone else won a majority after all.
Nicola is another one that hubris will bring down, mark my words.
(edit)
It's looking like an essentially identical result to December.
Corbyn now favourite to go before Cameron.
In a democracy sometimes you have to accept the side you voted for lost. The country has voted to leave the EU - no ifs, no buts - and it doesn't mean Armageddon. We are not a banana republic: we do not ignore or quash election results or our political opponents.
People need to calm down. Maybe stop checking the news for 5 minutes, go outside, and see that everyday life goes on unchanged.
Nobody seemed to have any particular issue with Cameron's actions on Friday in taking time to install a new Prime Minister before commencing formal negotiations, was happy that Carney took appropriate action to reassure the markets, and then spent Saturday ridiculing the EU for thinking it could rush us into action. And now suddenly that's all out of the window and everyone is demanding that HMG make it's position clear NOW! Why the change? Spending all day on Pb.com without coming up for air can do this sort of thing.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/26/someones-summed-up-why-boris-johnson-is-screwed-5967397/
and how everyone (87%) agrees with Nick again:
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/26/mysticclegg-people-are-freaking-out-about-how-accurate-nick-cleggs-post-brexit-predictions-were-5967787/
It's all kicking off...
Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/
Rumours abound that Cameron is planning a Cabinet re-shuffle, which will need to contain both Leavers and Remainers.
Once he has completed this task, which is unlikely to be easy, he can then initiate a healing process.
Once that is well underway he can then oversee the leadership election for his successor.
He has quite a lot on his plate at the moment.
Almost inconceivably, my spreadsheet is now showing PP +8, Cs -7, which means that the right wing parties will actually be up on the December election.
Of course, that's nowhere near enough to form an actual government,
Or too real world.
Tomorrow they'll be as many people talking about the events in Kings Landing as the events in Westminster.
Labour with the right Leader will walk an early election. The Tories have wrecked their reputation as competent.
No. If it all goes to hell in a handbasket, blame the Remainders in government for maliciously causing the problems. There is absolutely no reason for there to be major problems, other than certain persons want there to be, to make a point.