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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says the post-Corbyn chapter opens

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    FPT

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

    Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?
    It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.
    So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?
    Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

    Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.
    I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.
    I've had a quick scan and can't see anything:

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/pdfs/ukpga_20120011_en.pdf
    There is nothing, interviewer asked her a hypothetical question.
    Hm, I heard earlier (maybe yesterday) that there was some things the Scottish Parliament would need to approve, something to do with the preamble to the Scotland Act?
    There is nothing Westminster cannot legislate around.

    The interviewer asked her about a hypothetical situation where Westminster explicitly made article 50 activation dependent of ratification by all 4 parliaments.
    Well yes, but that doesn't mean the act couldn't include a provision to require consent. Much like how the FTPA could simply be repealed.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    RobD said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    The civil service surely have to to contingency planning? And they are supposed to be neutral, or did the civil service have a position as well as the government (not sure if the two are one and the same).
    They undoubtedly are but it will be keeping us in nothing more than a holding pattern. We are totallly directionless at the moment.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    From the Telegraph

    "Concern as online call for second Brexit vote gains more than 39,000 signatures from Vatican City - population 800 "

    "How many battalions has the pope?"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,017
    There's a haggle to be done with the EU once we get someone semi-coherent to represent us. A deal will be made. The shape of it looks like it will be outside of the EEA, will mean reduced access to the single market and may mean a relaxed movement of persons requirement. The main EU objective will be to ensure the eventual deal is less good than full membership. We have largely done that for them by voting Brexit. Their second objective is to stabilise the situation as quickly as possible and that means sorting out the relationship with the UK. That is a card the UK can play, providing as I say there's a competent politician on our side to actually play it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,674
    PlatoSaid said:

    "By my reckoning there are 20 Tory MPs who are considering launching a bid. It had been 19 until I heard of the – and I am going to be kind here – rather hopeful ambitions of George Freeman, the minister for life sciences. In the end, I am pretty sure it will boil down to a Boris v Theresa May fight, but as we all know in Tory leadership contests, the front runners rarely triumph.

    I think Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom have a good chance of breaking through, and if Michael Gove decides to stand he will also garner a fair few votes. My instinct is that Nicky Morgan will be the ‘continuity Cameron’ candidate, while George Osborne may well decide to throw his weight (and supporters) behind Boris or Theresa May depending on which one offers him something meaningful. His PPS spent yesterday sounding people out as to whether the Chancellor should run.

    I don’t know what he was told, but if MPs were being honest with him, many would have said not to bother. I understand that at least one senior minister, a surefire Osborne supporter, told Osborne’s PPS that he would now be backing Boris. It’s a fickle game, politics, and timing is everything. I fear this is not George Osborne’s time."

    :open_mouth::open_mouth::open_mouth:
    ' George Osborne may well decide to throw his weight (and supporters) behind Boris or Theresa May depending on which one offers him something meaningful. '

    Osborne now has no weight and no supporters.

    He is Martin Bormann in the bunker after Hitler's death.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    The City has a tiny number of residents - I'm sure I heard it was about 1500 in total 75% Remain.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    I'm guessing that's the location of a popular proxy provider?
    All govt petitions require a postcode. That is where the data comes from.

    How anyone supposedly derives IP addresses however...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Indigo said:

    More likely tomorrow everyone will go back to work except the soap dodgers, are really who cares what they think ;)

    ...and the one about to get their redundancy notices. But "really who cares", right?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    Cameron has resigned. But obviously he has to stay until another PM is in place. There is no constitutional requirement for the Chancellor to stay in place. He could be replaced immediately.
  • Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    FPT

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

    Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?
    It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.
    So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?
    Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

    Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.
    I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.
    Then Parliament passes a law that says the Scotland Act doesn't apply here.

    Parliament is the ultimate source of sovereign power in this country. It can do what it wants.
    Yeah true, it could simply amend the law.
    How when the eurosceptics don't have a majority in parliament? Looking like the Night Tube on grand scale. Boris had an idea, but no plan to deliver it.
    Er, starts in August.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    midwinter said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    I imagine he's saying perhaps Leave should have contemplated the possibility they might win and instead of wanking on about immigration for 3 weeks made some plan.
    Leave is a campaign group, it no longer exists, none of the politicians involved in leave except the Justice Secretary have office.

    The voters might reasonably expect the elected government to have done their fecking job and had a contingency plan ready to roll.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    The City has a tiny number of residents - I'm sure I heard it was about 1500 in total 75% Remain.
    The constituency has a population of ~110,000.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,463
    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/lawrenceschimel/status/746991531530293248

    What's currently going on under Boris' blonde wig.

    I am so delighted I'm not a lefty of this type, forced to creep gollum-like in the shadows of hating my own country and by extension myself. Never being able to look the world in the eye because every country is better, more tolerant, more sophisticated, more generous, more cooperative than mine. It's a mental disorder.
  • Scott_P said:

    Where's Osborne ?

    All of the Brexiteers here were calling for Osborne to be culled for weeks.

    Why are they not cheering his absence now?
    Because his absence means there is no replacement possible until he actually resigns. If he stood down and a replacement was put in place we could actually get on with stuff.
    Monday could be an event if Osborne makes a statement to HoC. Labour presumably will call on him to resign and the question is if any Conservatives twist in the knife as well.
    "You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go". Cromwell & Amery.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
    Immaterial. The point you were making is that the Scottish Independence and Brexit positions are the same regarding trade possibilities. They are not.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,967

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Today is a dark day in British politics.

    Six years of tongue in cheek bullshit comes to nothing!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,925
    RodCrosby said:

    McCluskey 100% behind Jezza...

    If true the Labour front bench are just making fools of themselves and this going nowhere right?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107

    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/lawrenceschimel/status/746991531530293248

    What's currently going on under Boris' blonde wig.

    I am so delighted I'm not a lefty of this type, forced to creep gollum-like in the shadows of hating my own country and by extension myself. Never being able to look the world in the eye because every country is better, more tolerant, more sophisticated, more generous, more cooperative than mine. It's a mental disorder.
    Eh? It was quite funny. British - sense of humour - remember?
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Good old Tory right wing. 18 years without a majority and it's taken the fools about a year to not only retoxify the party but also manage to damage the economic credibility that put them so far ahead of Labour. Way to go guys.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    PlatoSaid said:

    "By my reckoning there are 20 Tory MPs who are considering launching a bid. It had been 19 until I heard of the – and I am going to be kind here – rather hopeful ambitions of George Freeman, the minister for life sciences. In the end, I am pretty sure it will boil down to a Boris v Theresa May fight, but as we all know in Tory leadership contests, the front runners rarely triumph.

    I think Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom have a good chance of breaking through, and if Michael Gove decides to stand he will also garner a fair few votes. My instinct is that Nicky Morgan will be the ‘continuity Cameron’ candidate, while George Osborne may well decide to throw his weight (and supporters) behind Boris or Theresa May depending on which one offers him something meaningful. His PPS spent yesterday sounding people out as to whether the Chancellor should run.

    I don’t know what he was told, but if MPs were being honest with him, many would have said not to bother. I understand that at least one senior minister, a surefire Osborne supporter, told Osborne’s PPS that he would now be backing Boris. It’s a fickle game, politics, and timing is everything. I fear this is not George Osborne’s time."

    :open_mouth::open_mouth::open_mouth:
    ' George Osborne may well decide to throw his weight (and supporters) behind Boris or Theresa May depending on which one offers him something meaningful. '

    Osborne now has no weight and no supporters.

    He is Martin Bormann in the bunker after Hitler's death.
    I always thought George Osborne would throw his weight behind Boris....mainly on the basis that he despises Boris less than Theresa, and understand that he wouldn't win.

    My only proviso is his ongoing loyalty to Cameron....but I guess Cameron would give George his blessing, I think Dave would be loyal to George, and be supportive of what he chooses to do.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736
    Do we know what is the actual and constitutional status of the Rt Hon David Cameron MP? He is a class of Prime Minister. But has he actually resigned?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    FPT

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

    Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?
    It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.
    So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?
    Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

    Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.
    I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.
    Then Parliament passes a law that says the Scotland Act doesn't apply here.

    Parliament is the ultimate source of sovereign power in this country. It can do what it wants.
    Yeah true, it could simply amend the law.
    How when the eurosceptics don't have a majority in parliament? Looking like the Night Tube on grand scale. Boris had an idea, but no plan to deliver it.
    Er, starts in August.
    A year after he announced it would start
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,161

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Today is a dark day in British politics.

    Six years of tongue in cheek bullshit comes to nothing!
    I kept on telling you to lay Priti
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,017
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
    My speculation is that the eventual deal will include the UK piggy backing on EU trade deals as a package. The EU won't want the complication of a major local economy having different third party tariffs. The UK would likely get a better set of deals overall through the EU than going alone.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,463
    Indigo said:

    midwinter said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    I imagine he's saying perhaps Leave should have contemplated the possibility they might win and instead of wanking on about immigration for 3 weeks made some plan.
    Leave is a campaign group, it no longer exists, none of the politicians involved in leave except the Justice Secretary have office.

    The voters might reasonably expect the elected government to have done their fecking job and had a contingency plan ready to roll.
    It really is quite astonishing.

    And how supporters of this utter mess of an administration can say 'Leave should have had a plan' - sure thing, if you want Leave to put their plan in place, fuck off, because at the moment LEAVE AREN'T IN GOVERNMENT.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    The civil service surely have to to contingency planning? And they are supposed to be neutral, or did the civil service have a position as well as the government (not sure if the two are one and the same).
    Probably a fair fewer awards are going to be dished out at the civil service Christmas party this year than 2014.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,706
    dyingswan said:

    I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    Don't be silly. They'll just blame somebody else.

  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    It's amazing but the political vacuum is actually getting deeper. There is absolutely no-one at Westminster to take charge and get anything done. The Tories are split down the middle, leaderless and rudderless. Labour are split down the middle, leaderless and rudderless.

    Maybe the Queen needs to invite Angus Robertson in for a chat...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,000
    BBC Radio Nottingham @BBCNottingham
    Gedling Mp @Vernon_Coaker speaking on Sun Politics East Mids says he will be considering today whether to resign from shadow cabinet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    EPG said:

    Do we know what is the actual and constitutional status of the Rt Hon David Cameron MP? He is a class of Prime Minister. But has he actually resigned?

    Nothing has changed.
  • The main vulnerability AFAIK for Osborne is over his reckless statement to Iain Dale that the Treasury had no plan for Brexit.
    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/20/it-shouldn-t-happen-to-a-radio-presenter-46-interviewing-george-osborne-the-man-with-no-post-brexit-plan
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736
    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
    My speculation is that the eventual deal will include the UK piggy backing on EU trade deals as a package. The EU won't want the complication of a major local economy having different third party tariffs. The UK would likely get a better set of deals overall through the EU than going alone.
    Let's hope.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Shadow cabinet by this evening: Corbyn, Abbott, Livingstone, Varoufakis, Jeremy Hardy and a "Coal not Dole" mug. And Andy Burnham.

    Has Andy Burnham handed in his resignation and then changed his mind ten times in the last few hours?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,161
    Right, I've got stuff to do this afternoon, I would greatly appreciate it if politics in the UK WOULD CALM THE FUCK DOWN for the next six hours or so.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    McCluskey 100% behind Jezza...

    If true the Labour front bench are just making fools of themselves and this going nowhere right?
    NEC trade unionists also backing Jezza, apparently...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    We don't need a plan. There are loads of off the shelf Think Tank plans for Brexit. We need a decision. But the moment someone make a decision huge chunks of both Leave and Remain voters are going to say " You lying ***** you never told us that. ". This s what Mutually Assured Destruction looks like. There's no plan because everyone assumed the voters won't be stupid enough to push the button.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
    Immaterial. The point you were making is that the Scottish Independence and Brexit positions are the same regarding trade possibilities. They are not.
    No. The point is that imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance are more important than trade by a huge factor. Communities hugely dependent on trade voted LEAVE.
  • Osborne's odds on taking over from Cameron are now 90 on Betfair, becoming a long shot.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    McCluskey 100% behind Jezza...

    If true the Labour front bench are just making fools of themselves and this going nowhere right?
    McCluskey's intervention will only harden the resolve of the coup. Corbyn is finished...I think the tactics of Corbyn's lefty clique is to ensure they have a candidate to present forwards. I hope its Clive Lewis, but I fear it'll be McDonnell.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TSE I don't fancy your chances on that front.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,046
    midwinter said:

    Scott_P said:

    Floater said:

    You another who thinks we have the wrong sort of Democracy?

    Not at all. We had a vote, we got a legitimate result.

    But once the true extent of just what that vote means, I think democratically we could have another vote, just to make sure everybody, REALLY, REALLY wanted the carnage they have unleashed,

    At the very least it would be fun to see Boris, Gove and IDS going round the country again in a bus with "We Never Said That" in huge letters on the side.

    And before anyone says "we need to move on and make the best of it", that is exactly what I am proposing.

    When you are at the bottom of a very deep, dark hole, making the best of it does not usually involve digging. If there is any possibility of retracing any your steps, that might be a slightly better plan...
    I'm sure your right but this a certain masochistic delight in watching the idiots squirm, wriggle and backtrack as their promises unravel.
    I was listening to Paul Nutgall on TV this morning with my head in my hands thinking Christ this is what we have come to. Nobody is going to unite this country any time soon that's for sure.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Damn! She's the kind of person we need as PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Wow, Merkel wants a #Brexit rethink. Chf of stf Peter Altmaier, UK "should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit"

    As I was saying...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,017

    Indigo said:

    midwinter said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    I imagine he's saying perhaps Leave should have contemplated the possibility they might win and instead of wanking on about immigration for 3 weeks made some plan.
    Leave is a campaign group, it no longer exists, none of the politicians involved in leave except the Justice Secretary have office.

    The voters might reasonably expect the elected government to have done their fecking job and had a contingency plan ready to roll.
    It really is quite astonishing.

    And how supporters of this utter mess of an administration can say 'Leave should have had a plan' - sure thing, if you want Leave to put their plan in place, fuck off, because at the moment LEAVE AREN'T IN GOVERNMENT.
    My predictions don't always come true, obviously, but this was one I was confident of. Should Leave win, they would blame those that warned of the dangers rather than those who promoted the cause.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,000
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    McCluskey 100% behind Jezza...

    If true the Labour front bench are just making fools of themselves and this going nowhere right?
    McCluskey's intervention will only harden the resolve of the coup. Corbyn is finished...I think the tactics of Corbyn's lefty clique is to ensure they have a candidate to present forwards. I hope its Clive Lewis, but I fear it'll be McDonnell.
    A bigger question is whether 3/4 of the PLP will have the guts to elect their own leader and sit as a separate entity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,263
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Wow, Merkel wants a #Brexit rethink. Chf of stf Peter Altmaier, UK "should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit"

    As I was saying...

    Classic EU...wrong answer, try again. Its the Hotel California. Or in the Monty Hall game the door with car is locked from the inside.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    Agree with much of that - but the response will be that you are sulking / grow up etc etc.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,070
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    That's a good analysis. The Tory right were utterly beholden to UKIP and obsessed with dancing to its tune - a entity whose overriding desire is the Tories' absolute destruction.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,713
    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    John_N4 said:

    SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

    Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.
    No you miss the point.

    Only two possible scenarios with Scotland out of the Union and in the EU:
    ...
    There is no scenario where an Independent Scotland in the EU has a better trade position overall than a Scotland remaining in the UK.
    Agreed. My point is that by the same logic, there is no scenario where the UK has a better trade position after Brexit. Evidently, trade and dry economics don't beat imagined communities, sovereignty and fear of dominance.
    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.
    By the same token, the future EU could strike better trade deals than the UK. Nobody doubts that there are dynamic effects, but the immediate outcome of the vote is the same: less trade, no immediate replacement. If there is a Lord Halifax-type deal with Europe, it may in any case require a referendum, so the people can give their full-throated consent to free labour movement from Poland and Romania.
    My speculation is that the eventual deal will include the UK piggy backing on EU trade deals as a package. The EU won't want the complication of a major local economy having different third party tariffs. The UK would likely get a better set of deals overall through the EU than going alone.
    That's a shame, once we are out of the EU we could have free trade. Zero tariffs.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    EPG said:

    Do we know what is the actual and constitutional status of the Rt Hon David Cameron MP? He is a class of Prime Minister. But has he actually resigned?

    I don't think so (apologies for my incorrect shorthand earlier). He has said he is going to resign in October. So for now he has to carry on doing his job.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Indigo said:

    midwinter said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    I imagine he's saying perhaps Leave should have contemplated the possibility they might win and instead of wanking on about immigration for 3 weeks made some plan.
    Leave is a campaign group, it no longer exists, none of the politicians involved in leave except the Justice Secretary have office.

    The voters might reasonably expect the elected government to have done their fecking job and had a contingency plan ready to roll.
    It really is quite astonishing.

    And how supporters of this utter mess of an administration can say 'Leave should have had a plan' - sure thing, if you want Leave to put their plan in place, fuck off, because at the moment LEAVE AREN'T IN GOVERNMENT.
    You cannot plan for what others want to do, they have to tell you and then you implement it.

    Or, Cameron says I'm PM, I have taken on board the advice from the referendum and I will ignore it (swiftly followed by a vote carried easily through, there being a vast number of remain MPs).

    That's the plan. Is that what you want?

    Is it?

    Leave politicians have to step up, now. They own this.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Greenwood (who ?) resigns...
  • AnnaAnna Posts: 59

    Scott_P said:

    Floater said:

    You another who thinks we have the wrong sort of Democracy?

    Not at all. We had a vote, we got a legitimate result.

    But once the true extent of just what that vote means, I think democratically we could have another vote, just to make sure everybody, REALLY, REALLY wanted the carnage they have unleashed,

    At the very least it would be fun to see Boris, Gove and IDS going round the country again in a bus with "We Never Said That" in huge letters on the side.

    And before anyone says "we need to move on and make the best of it", that is exactly what I am proposing.

    When you are at the bottom of a very deep, dark hole, making the best of it does not usually involve digging. If there is any possibility of retracing any your steps, that might be a slightly better plan...
    I'm beginning to think some kind of re-vote is on the cards - not primarily to reverse the decision but to ameliorate a constitutional crisis. You have to go back centuries to find this level of strife. We're staring into the abyss here.
    Credit Crunch?
    Poll tax riots?
    Mining strikes?
    Winter of Disconent?

    I reckon we average one such crisis a decade.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,891
    Indigo said:

    I'm beginning to think some kind of re-vote is on the cards - not primarily to reverse the decision but to ameliorate a constitutional crisis. You have to go back centuries to find this level of strife. We're staring into the abyss here.

    ... and if the result then is similar do we re-vote again ? More likely tomorrow everyone will go back to work except the soap dodgers, are really who cares what they think ;)
    After the falls we're going to see on the markets tomorrow? I'd be surprised if there isn't a suspension of trading.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    Cameron was so incapable of governing his own party he screwed the nation.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2016
    Corbyn will be gone.

    But the problems for Labour aren't necessarily solved by him gone. They could manage to elect someone as infective or inept as him. One of the main reasons he is there is that some of the Labour "safe pair of hands" turned out to be so flat in the previous leadership contest (Burnham and Cooper)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,463

    We don't need a plan. There are loads of off the shelf Think Tank plans for Brexit. We need a decision. But the moment someone make a decision huge chunks of both Leave and Remain voters are going to say " You lying ***** you never told us that. ". This s what Mutually Assured Destruction looks like. There's no plan because everyone assumed the voters won't be stupid enough to push the button.

    Which in a binary referendum, especially one with little gap in the polling, was a GROTESQUE dereliction of duty. As I'm sure you'll agree.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Today is a dark day in British politics.

    Six years of tongue in cheek bullshit comes to nothing!
    I kept on telling you to lay Priti
    Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Thoughts on Graham Brady's chances? Surely he is quite popular amongst the back benchers.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,046
    CD13 said:

    Mr P,

    "Number 10 should have had one"

    The CS would have had one unless Cammo or Osbo had deliberately vetoed it. Scorched Earth syndrome, but very unprofessional.


    I'm sorry but the vast majority of the electorate will be expecting Brexiters to have a plan. they have months if not years to devise one but it's becoming increasingly clear they haven't a Scooby Doo. Rowing back so fast their heads must be swimming!
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    No. They'll just blame the EU.
  • midwinter said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    Awesome

    @faisalislam: Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

    The biggest dereliction of duty of a government in living memory.
    They have a plan, it's called remain. Governments don't have a duty to implement policies of their enemies. Osborne and Carney have implemented the plan too stave off jitters in the city but, beyond that, what can they do?

    You Brexit, you Fixit.

    So are you saying that Cameron and Osborne should immediately resign ?
    I imagine he's saying perhaps Leave should have contemplated the possibility they might win and instead of wanking on about immigration for 3 weeks made some plan.
    Keeping shtum right now is probably the plan. Make Camerons position untenable and Boris will be PM by Friday.
  • murali_s said:

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Damn! She's the kind of person we need as PM.
    I think you missed off the end of your sentence, let me complete it for you..."like a hole in the head."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,000
    Jonathan said:

    EPG said:

    Do we know what is the actual and constitutional status of the Rt Hon David Cameron MP? He is a class of Prime Minister. But has he actually resigned?

    Nothing has changed.
    He is PM. He has given notice of an intention to resign, thereby triggering a Con Party leadership battle. The Queen has been informed of his intention.

    Given how topsy-turvey everything is: perhaps he'll change his mind in middle of August.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RodCrosby said:

    Greenwood (who ?) resigns...

    For a fleeting moment I thought you meant the England manager. If only Brooking and Keegan had been fit.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    No!!

    Wow!!

    er who?

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 3m3 minutes ago
    Lillian Greenwood has resigned.
  • Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Shock, dam goes my £7 at odds of 160......
    :smiley:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297

    I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

    From the BBC.

    Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

    Typical BBC reporting

    That isn't what she said. She said Holyrood could decline to pass an LCM. But Westminster can proceed without one. Just means Scotland even more upset and another boost for Indyref2.
    Westminster may be praying she does and use it as a good excuse to back out.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Today is a dark day in British politics.

    Six years of tongue in cheek bullshit comes to nothing!
    There are still threesome fantasies available with Justine. Every cloud and all that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,463
    Alistair said:

    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    Cameron was so incapable of governing his own party he screwed the nation.
    Do you want Sturgeon to govern you as an SNP member? Or is she there to represent you?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326

    Right, I've got stuff to do this afternoon, I would greatly appreciate it if politics in the UK WOULD CALM THE FUCK DOWN for the next six hours or so.

    I hear the Queen is considering her position....

    JOKE. Please don't take it seriously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    edited June 2016
    Lowlander said:

    It's amazing but the political vacuum is actually getting deeper. There is absolutely no-one at Westminster to take charge and get anything done. The Tories are split down the middle, leaderless and rudderless. Labour are split down the middle, leaderless and rudderless.

    Maybe the Queen needs to invite Angus Robertson in for a chat...

    In which case Middle England will have a revolution! Not that the Queen would even consider it anyway
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    I'm guessing that's the location of a popular proxy provider?
    All govt petitions require a postcode. That is where the data comes from.

    How anyone supposedly derives IP addresses however...
    Click on the "Get Petition Data" link at the bottom, its gives a big file with all summary data, the server accepting the petition request will know the apparent IP address of the submitter.

    I draw your attention to the following items in the data

    {"name":"France","code":"FR","signature_count":20081}
    {"name":"Australia","code":"AU","signature_count":12791}
    {"name": "British Antarctic Territory","code": "BAT","signature_count": 2735},
    {"name": "North Korea","code": "KP", "signature_count": 24864},
    {"name": "Vatican City", "code": "VA", "signature_count": 41854 }

    If you look at the constituency data, its inner London the heavily Remain places, so in other words, people who lost the referendum want another go.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Faisal reckons there'll be nine resignations...
  • MP_SE said:

    Thoughts on Graham Brady's chances? Surely he is quite popular amongst the back benchers.

    If he stood he would easily get into the final two. But, alas he wants to be the returning officer FFS.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JournoStephen: Leading Scottish Labour figure tells me he is now "likely" to back independence. Story on @STVNews in five minutes.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    David Cameron has not been removed. He chose to go, despite promising not to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,000
    OllyT said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr P,

    "Number 10 should have had one"

    The CS would have had one unless Cammo or Osbo had deliberately vetoed it. Scorched Earth syndrome, but very unprofessional.


    I'm sorry but the vast majority of the electorate will be expecting Brexiters to have a plan. they have months if not years to devise one but it's becoming increasingly clear they haven't a Scooby Doo. Rowing back so fast their heads must be swimming!
    I believe Farage waited a full five minutes after the official announcement that Leave had won at 7am before saying there was no £350m a week for the NHS.

    Is this a world record?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,636
    Afternoon all :)

    It's often forgotten Labour was the anti-Europe party until the coming of KInnock and Mandelson and has divisions just as the Conservative Party has. Parties which are broad coalitions will have splits on key issues (Europe, defence and the like) and it's about managing these competing elements.

    I'd argue Labour is in trouble because REMAIN lost and the Conservatives are in trouble because LEAVE won.

    As for the Conservatives, if we get 12 or 13 runners, it'll be the British version of the GOP primaries - Sky can show two sets of debates, one for the key players, another for the also rans. It'll be just as amusing for the electorate to watch this bunch of selling platers scrapping for the top job.

    Perhaps we can put them all in a house for a month and call it BIg Political Brother with the winner becoming Prime Minister or send them to Australia:

    "I'm a Conservative Leadership Candidate - Get Me Out of Here".

    For those punting on the outcome (in the name of God, why ?), I'd simply say the last three Prime Ministers who all left while in office without a General Election (Blair, Thatcher, Wilson) were all succeeded by a senior colleague - two Chancellors and a Home Secretary if memory serves. I wouldn't look beyond one of the senior posts - not Osborne but either May or Hammond.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297
    Lowlander said:

    malcolmg said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ann Coffey MP: If Jezza doesn't go, no more Labour Party...

    She really didn't pull any punches. Very firm and clear - I was rather impressed.

    Iain Murray rumoured to be resigning - Labour's only Scottish MP
    What a loss to Labour , a Titan among Scottish Labour MP's
    Ian Murray is the most exceptional talent amongst Scottish Labour MPs a true one off.
    LOL
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326

    Jonathan said:

    EPG said:

    Do we know what is the actual and constitutional status of the Rt Hon David Cameron MP? He is a class of Prime Minister. But has he actually resigned?

    Nothing has changed.
    He is PM. He has given notice of an intention to resign, thereby triggering a Con Party leadership battle. The Queen has been informed of his intention.

    Given how topsy-turvey everything is: perhaps he'll change his mind in middle of August.
    I think we call that 'Doing a Farage' these days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    Scott_P said:

    Floater said:

    You another who thinks we have the wrong sort of Democracy?

    Not at all. We had a vote, we got a legitimate result.

    But once the true extent of just what that vote means, I think democratically we could have another vote, just to make sure everybody, REALLY, REALLY wanted the carnage they have unleashed,

    At the very least it would be fun to see Boris, Gove and IDS going round the country again in a bus with "We Never Said That" in huge letters on the side.

    And before anyone says "we need to move on and make the best of it", that is exactly what I am proposing.

    When you are at the bottom of a very deep, dark hole, making the best of it does not usually involve digging. If there is any possibility of retracing any your steps, that might be a slightly better plan...
    I'm beginning to think some kind of re-vote is on the cards - not primarily to reverse the decision but to ameliorate a constitutional crisis.
    We do need to resolve many crises, and if we had time it would be the right time to finally resolve many lingering constitutional and electoral considerations. But there isn't time. And even if there is, it would be a vote on those elements, not a re-vote, which by definition would be on Brexit.

    Brexit is done, it's over. People may come to regret that - hell, I may come to regret that - but it is done. Any 'lies' by the campaigns won't justify a rerun (they'd be 'lies unless you look at the small print' manifesto type lies), people changing their minds doesn't justify it (how many have genuinely done so, how is that proven), there won't be a new offer before any article 50 declaration (the EU cannot risk it), any offer post article 50 being voted on to confirm matters won't end Brexit (the declaration is it), and Sturgeon claiming it can be vetoed won't do it (she's most likely wrong, and even if she isn't that would just delay matters as we'd immediately kick out Scotland and vote even more strongly for Leave - there's no downside as far as she is concerned).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Wow, Merkel wants a #Brexit rethink. Chf of stf Peter Altmaier, UK "should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit"

    Germany just blinked first. No further proof is needed of the UK's incredibly strong negotiating position in future trade negotiations when we import some £100bn more from the EU than we export to them. Frau Merkel's kind offer will be declined, and we'll commence negotiations on trade in the knowledge that Germany is desperate not to see barriers erected to one of its largest export markets.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Osborne's odds on taking over from Cameron are now 90 on Betfair, becoming a long shot.

    I'm not feeling the need to close out my very red position on him.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Wow, Merkel wants a #Brexit rethink. Chf of stf Peter Altmaier, UK "should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit"

    As I was saying...

    Merkel's reaction tells me the EU is in even more trouble than it looks.

    Fingers crossed for a Podemos victory.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,082
    RodCrosby said:

    Faisal reckons there'll be nine resignations...

    Is that including what's been announced?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,891
    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    dyingswan said:

    What an utter shambles. As a Conservative Remainer I am appalled. The Leave camp never had a vision of what to do after Thursday. there will now be massive Buyers Remorse as the job losses begin and the economy falters. I think that the Labour coup will succeed. Someone remotely sensible will replace Corbyn. In October we will have a Lab/Lib government. The only consolation is that that will mark the end the career of Boris Johnson around whose neck will be hung the populist lies of £350 million for the NHS extra every week and a reduction of immigration. The most able grown up in the room David Cameron has been removed. We are left with people who have not the faintest idea of what they wish to achieve in negotiations on trade which will go on for years. This is a dangerous situation for our country. I hope that my Conservative Brexiteer friends will take full responsibility for what they have wrought.

    Yep, and the scaremongerers (i.e. more sensible folk) on here could see it all coming a mile off.

    I'm increasingly convinced that Johnson never was for leave but thought that having a prominent role in a narrowly defeated leave campaign would put him in No. 10. What a complete mess.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    BBC Radio Nottingham @BBCNottingham
    Gedling Mp @Vernon_Coaker speaking on Sun Politics East Mids says he will be considering today whether to resign from shadow cabinet.

    Gedling had a big Leave vote. 55.6%
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,326
    murali_s said:

    Guido says Priti Patel is out of the running. Ruled herself out.

    Damn! She's the kind of person we need as PM.
    Nah. Her support for capital punishment rules her out for me.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    midwinter said:

    Good old Tory right wing. 18 years without a majority and it's taken the fools about a year to not only retoxify the party but also manage to damage the economic credibility that put them so far ahead of Labour. Way to go guys.

    You do talk some rot, Boris and Gove are Cameroons. Boris was the three time mayor of Labour London.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,706

    Yes there is. There is clearly a better trade position possible if we get EFTA membership and remain in the EEA. That is better as it maintains out trading relationships as before but gives us the ability to strike trade deals outside of the EU. Indeed we would be immediately better as EFTA have a trade deal in place with Canada.

    You have spoken repeatedly prior to the vote that this was your preferred option, and now that we are LEAVING it is my preferred option too. So I sincerely hope that (absent a second referendum) it comes to pass.

    However, if you will indulge me for a moment, I need to point out the following:
    * The Vote Leave campaign specifically discarded that option, and their campaigners are most likely to form the government after Cameron
    * The noise coming out of Europe deprecate that option
    * The electorate may reject an option that includes freedom of movement, particularly after a campaign s focussed on antiimmigration

    So whilst I hope your EFTA/EEA option comes to pass, I fear that it will not.

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited June 2016
    Indigo said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    I'm guessing that's the location of a popular proxy provider?
    All govt petitions require a postcode. That is where the data comes from.

    How anyone supposedly derives IP addresses however...
    Click on the "Get Petition Data" link at the bottom, its gives a big file with all summary data, the server accepting the petition request will know the apparent IP address of the submitter.

    I draw your attention to the following items in the data

    {"name":"France","code":"FR","signature_count":20081}
    {"name":"Australia","code":"AU","signature_count":12791}
    {"name": "British Antarctic Territory","code": "BAT","signature_count": 2735},
    {"name": "North Korea","code": "KP", "signature_count": 24864},
    {"name": "Vatican City", "code": "VA", "signature_count": 41854 }

    If you look at the constituency data, its inner London the heavily Remain places, so in other words, people who lost the referendum want another go.
    The biggest irony is that the petition was set up by an outer BEFORE the referendum to try and STOP a Remain victory.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited June 2016
    It's not rocket science. Come up with a plan of action and then inform the EU that we intend to leave. Don't understand what all the hysteria is about, the result was clear get on with it.

    Can you imagine what this useless bunch of politicians would be like in the even of an actual crisis like a world war?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736

    No!!

    Wow!!

    er who?

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 3m3 minutes ago
    Lillian Greenwood has resigned.

    lol
    Labour is a second-rate party. When the top ones wouldn't join Corbyn, he had to pick third-raters. Which means he will now be down to appointing Isthmian League types.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    murali_s said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Faisal reckons there'll be nine resignations...

    Is that including what's been announced?
    Yes, so we're not even half-way through yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,813
    Thrak said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thrak said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thrak said:

    Around Europe realignments happen more frequently, ironic if exiting the EU will lead to a realignment of UK politics. Labour right and conservatve europhiles will join together (maybe with LDs, or what.'s left of them) and there will be a General Election as neither party has enough support in the commons.

    As a centrist I know I'm hoping but everything is up on the air and anything can happen.


    At which point the Europhile establishment will have gone from being in charge of all 3 main parties at the last general election to just one, a new SDP2, a party which of course only ever managed 3rd place!
    They had second rate politicians, if only this time we could have the best and, let's face it, the Corbynite and Leave conservatives are much weaker than those who disagree with them.

    Not in a country which has just voted 52% Leave!
    They lied. They are being found out.
    No they are not, most Leave voters are very happy with the result, the country is now officially anti EU
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    edited June 2016
    Jason said:

    Indigo said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    First :D

    I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?
    Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.
    Apparently 44,544+ people in the Cities of London and Westminster constituency have signed the petition:

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215&area=lon

    Does anyone really believe that ?

    By comparison Chelsea & Fulham constituency has 12,172 signatures.
    I'm guessing that's the location of a popular proxy provider?
    All govt petitions require a postcode. That is where the data comes from.

    How anyone supposedly derives IP addresses however...
    Click on the "Get Petition Data" link at the bottom, its gives a big file with all summary data, the server accepting the petition request will know the apparent IP address of the submitter.

    I draw your attention to the following items in the data

    {"name":"France","code":"FR","signature_count":20081}
    {"name":"Australia","code":"AU","signature_count":12791}
    {"name": "British Antarctic Territory","code": "BAT","signature_count": 2735},
    {"name": "North Korea","code": "KP", "signature_count": 24864},
    {"name": "Vatican City", "code": "VA", "signature_count": 41854 }

    If you look at the constituency data, its inner London the heavily Remain places, so in other words, people who lost the referendum want another go.
    The biggest irony is that the petition was set up by an outer BEFORE the referendum to try and STOP a Leave victory.
    Stop a Remain victory, surely?!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited June 2016
    Since we're doing historical comaparisons, Tom Watson surely has to be Witch Finder General, Matthew Hopkins.
This discussion has been closed.