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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says the post-Corbyn chapter opens

Jeremy Corbyn has never been loved as leader by the Labour MPs. He didn’t have enough support to be nominated without the horribly misguided nominations of backers of other candidates, he’s neither looked nor acted like a leader once in place, and he’s never sought to reconcile the gap between his personal mandate in the party and his lack of one in parliament.

Read the full story here

RobD

First

RobD

Cheque is in the post, TSE

DanSmith

We are living though never seen before and maybe never seen again history here. Enjoy (if you can !).

RobD

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Stark_Dawning

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

rottenborough

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

If true then they were stupid.

TudorRose

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

EICIPM

FPT

EICIPM said:

SUNDAY, BLOODY SUNDAY for Labour.



EICIPM redux?

Richard_Tyndall

rottenborough said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

If true then they were stupid.

Yes.

Stark_Dawning

TudorRose said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

An early election now has to be a write-off. It can't happen till both leadership matters are settled, and the Tories would have seriously cold feet against anyone other than Jez in this climate.

alex.

Interesting point I saw made somewhere. It took 7 months to negotiate Dave's "deal" prior to this referendum.

2 years to completely renegotiate and legally document Britain's future relationship with the EU?

RobD

Stark_Dawning said:

TudorRose said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

An early election now has to be a write-off. It can't happen till both leadership matters are settled, and the Tories would have seriously cold feet against anyone other than Jez in this climate.

I don't think anyone was calling for an election in the next month, there may be an election after the new PM is installed though.

AlastairMeeks

Referendums are the locomotive of politics.

Fishing

Tories4Corbyn must be meeting in crisis mode now. Time to activate sleepers in the Labour front bench?

Floater

"may you live in interesting times" certainly true right now .

Choose Lammy Labour, then you will see how much the working class can hate you.

TCPoliticalBetting

Tip?
What about Jon Trickett if not McDonnell? Clear thinker and respected by Brownites but his politics are in the Corbyn camp.

DanSmith

Stark_Dawning said:

TudorRose said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

An early election now has to be a write-off. It can't happen till both leadership matters are settled, and the Tories would have seriously cold feet against anyone other than Jez in this climate.

Events may force their hand. Essentially the manifesto the Tories were elected on no longer exists, whoever the next leader is has no mandate for the upcoming negotiations, I think it would be very difficult and maybe even impossible to govern in these circumstances. Early election is going to happen.

Floater

RobD said:

First

I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?

RobD

Floater said:

RobD said:

First

I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?

If you get a million signatures, I think TSE is legally obliged to start a thread about it.....

TheScreamingEagles

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

CopperSulphate

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

So England isn't allowed to tell Scotland what to do, but the opposite is okay?

I know, I know, it's all to agitate for independence.

Jobabob

Sturgeon saying she'll invoke Scotland's power of veto to block Brexit. Legisation requires all four nations to agree?!?

Scrapheap_as_was

#bungonburgon

He is the future.

TudorRose

DanSmith said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TudorRose said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

An early election now has to be a write-off. It can't happen till both leadership matters are settled, and the Tories would have seriously cold feet against anyone other than Jez in this climate.

Events may force their hand. Essentially the manifesto the Tories were elected on no longer exists, whoever the next leader is has no mandate for the upcoming negotiations, I think it would be very difficult and maybe even impossible to govern in these circumstances. Early election is going to happen.

Which may be why Labour MPs think now is the only chance to get rid of Corbyn before an election. Some of them must be worried about UKIP in a 2016 GE.

YellowSubmarine

Momentum have launched a " I'm with Corbyn " Twibon.

DanSmith

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

I asked yesterday what would happen if Westminster blocks another independence referendum, now we know.

CD13

It can't be Billy Bunter, surely? Come on, Labour, we've had enough cartoon characters in politics. Wallace, Deputy Dawg (thanks, Mr G), Micky Mouse, what next?

chestnut

Jobabob said:

Sturgeon saying she'll invoke Scotland's power of veto to block Brexit. Legisation requires all four nations to agree?!?

Is she that daft?

Omnium

FPT

malcolmg said:

Omnium said:

malcolmg said:

Omnium said:

If there's another Scottish Indyref, and if bits of Scotland - say the residents of an Edinburgh street have voted to stay then surely the SNPs logic means that they should be allowed to have their own little referendum to stay in the UK.

It seems many people have forgotten what a democracy is.

Nutter

Nuts in what way? Happy for you to enlighten me if there's a glaring error here.

I am sure you are not as stupid as you are making out , you vote as a country , not as a street or postcode. Scotland is a country and so the vote applies to the whole of Scotland. Is that clear enough.

Look - you've called me nuts and stupid. Would you mind not doing so? It's clear, but it'd rather rude.

The referendum was one conducted over the UK as a whole. We voted as a country - and that country was the UK.

As I posted earlier I don't mind at all if the people of Scotland say that they feel awkward about the results etc, and that they'd like another IndyRef, but I do object to them saying that they have a cast-iron justification for another vote.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

#bungonburgon

He is the future.

The farting commie? Please make it so.

Stark_Dawning

There are absolutely no cards that the Tories played during the last GE that they can play now. Economic stability and certainty? Exploded by Brexit. Undue SNP influence? Meaningless if Scotland looks about to depart. They're now totally dependent now on Boris's scruffy charm and old-world humour to try and wing it. Less than totally reassuring.

RobD

Jobabob said:

Sturgeon saying she'll invoke Scotland's power of veto to block Brexit. Legisation requires all four nations to agree?!?

Article 50 is invoked by the executive. After two years the 72 act will be repealed de facto, if not de jure.

Floater

Interesting

http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/26/jexit-labour-in-crisis/

Richard_Tyndall

AlastairMeeks said:

Referendums are the locomotive of politics.

I am trying to work out if you think that is a good or bad thing

david_herdson

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

SquareRoot

RobD said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TudorRose said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The Tories must be worried - Corbyn's being around in 2020 was factored in to absolutely everything.

But so was the assumption that the next GE would be in 2020...

An early election now has to be a write-off. It can't happen till both leadership matters are settled, and the Tories would have seriously cold feet against anyone other than Jez in this climate.

I don't think anyone was calling for an election in the next month, there may be an election after the new PM is installed though.

.. it'll be Gordon Bown 2007 all over again.... the polls will stop any election, even if they are wrong as they have been.

Alistair

Read the actual Sturgeon quote.

She said that in a situation where legislative consent was required from all four countries she would of course instruct her MSPs not to give it but she doesn't think Westminster will ask for it so it is an entirely hypothetical question

felix

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

To prevent the domino effect?

Scott_P

Apparently the banks will start moving jobs next week. Other deals will be cancelled.

Intimidation of immigrants are being reported round the country, and will be appearing on the nightly news.

Suggested betting market

How many weeks before or after the closure of the Tata Steel plant will we have a rerun of the in/Out vote?

Alistair

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

Pure hypothetical.

Floater

RobD said:

Floater said:

RobD said:

First

I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?

If you get a million signatures, I think TSE is legally obliged to start a thread about it.....

I might start a petition on AV then *evil grin*

TCPoliticalBetting

alex. said:

Interesting point I saw made somewhere. It took 7 months to negotiate Dave's "deal" prior to this referendum.

2 years to completely renegotiate and legally document Britain's future relationship with the EU?

One of the problems with any negotiations is where the main people do not give the matter their 100% attention and if there are more than one person taking decisions. Perhaps Dave's "deal" was impaired by having several part timers involved which included, Dave, George and Ed Llewellyn? Add in Hammond (FO SoS) and the europe minister (Liddington) and that was a lot of room for obfuscation and delay. An expectation a year ago was that Dave would appoint a Europe Minister in Cabinet to head up all the negotiations and that Osborne might do that full time.
That never happened.

RobD

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

You can take our lives, but you will never take our EU....

david_herdson

alex. said:

Interesting point I saw made somewhere. It took 7 months to negotiate Dave's "deal" prior to this referendum.

2 years to completely renegotiate and legally document Britain's future relationship with the EU?

It's amazing what you can do when you put your mind to it. One of the main problems with the EU is that it very rarely acts with that kind of focus. but against a set deadline, there'd be little choice (there is a provision to extend the deadline but I can't see the public accepting Brexit dragging on beyond the natural term of this parliametn).

david_herdson

Jobabob said:

Sturgeon saying she'll invoke Scotland's power of veto to block Brexit. Legisation requires all four nations to agree?!?

Chapter and verse?

HYUFD

McDonnell has confirmed he will be Corbyn's campaign manager again if there is another leadership election, looks very possible he could be comfortably re-elected again if a coup is attempted

MonikerDiCanio

Labour consists a various unhappy factions who have nothing in common. Sunderland Labour has no overlap with Islington Labour, let alone Tower Hamlets Labour. I'll relish the inevitable Balkanization.

JackW

I have refused an offer from Jezza for my ARSE to serve in several shadow cabinet posts simultaneously on account of a more generous offer from numerous Conservative MP's to be the unity candidate to stop Boris becoming PM.

My ARSE is considering its position.

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

McDonnell has confirmed he will be Corbyn's campaign manager again if there is another leadership election, looks very possible he could be comfortably re-elected again if a coup is attempted

Tories for corbyn mobilising as we speak.

RodCrosby

McCluskey 100% behind Jezza...

Richard_Tyndall

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

There used to be loads of acts on the statute books that were effectively meaningless until there was a clean up a decade or so ago.

If Article 50 has been invoked and we have negotiated a withdrawal from the EU which is then passed by Parliament then the 1972 European Communities Act simply becomes one of those.

TudorRose

JackW said:

I have refused an offer from Jezza for my ARSE to serve in several shadow cabinet posts simultaneously on account of a more generous offer from numerous Conservative MP's to be the unity candidate to stop Boris becoming PM.

My ARSE is considering its position.

You mean it's sitting on the fence?

TheScreamingEagles

Has been pointed out to me that in that picture, Tom Watson is drinking Thatcher's Gold

CopperSulphate

felix said:

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

Tnd they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

To prevent the domino effect?

So the EU purposely damaging its economy for political reasons. Where have I heard that one before?

peter_from_putney

Yeeks! Stephen Kinnock is as short as 14/1 to be the next leader of the Labour party.

TCPoliticalBetting

david_herdson said:

alex. said:

Interesting point I saw made somewhere. It took 7 months to negotiate Dave's "deal" prior to this referendum.

2 years to completely renegotiate and legally document Britain's future relationship with the EU?

It's amazing what you can do when you put your mind to it. One of the main problems with the EU is that it very rarely acts with that kind of focus. but against a set deadline, there'd be little choice (there is a provision to extend the deadline but I can't see the public accepting Brexit dragging on beyond the natural term of this parliametn).

Also if the EU heads believe that they must strike a deal quickly, that was the most encouraging thing I have read on the matter.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

At which point the UK PM should then hold a referendum in England and Wales on whether to eject Scotland from the UK, a referendum which would probably pass without too many problems now

CD13

Mr P,

"How many weeks before or after the closure of the Tata Steel plant will we have a rerun of the in/Out vote?"

At least 1,040 at the earliest.

It's over, the weasels and stoats are out of the wildwood. It's no use asking "Where did they come flocking from?"

YellowSubmarine

The Sennedd tried this over some of the Trade Union reforms. They refused legislative consent despite Westminster not asking for it. The suggestion was it would end up in the Supreme Court as to whether the Act did or didn't cover a devolved matter. Though if need be Westminster can just amend the devolution acts in the ECA repeal bill so job done that way.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has been pointed out to me that in that picture, Tom Watson is drinking Thatcher's Gold

My favourite when I'm back home.....

John_N4

SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

PlatoSaid

Faisal saying the rebel MPs liked Jeremy - but they liked the EU a lot more

Lowlander

malcolmg said:

PlatoSaid said:

RodCrosby said:

Ann Coffey MP: If Jezza doesn't go, no more Labour Party...

She really didn't pull any punches. Very firm and clear - I was rather impressed.

Iain Murray rumoured to be resigning - Labour's only Scottish MP

What a loss to Labour , a Titan among Scottish Labour MP's

Ian Murray is the most exceptional talent amongst Scottish Labour MPs a true one off.

MonikerDiCanio

peter_from_putney said:

Yeeks! Stephen Kinnock is as short as 14/1 to be the next leader of the Labour party.

He's a weirdo. Genuinely creepy. No chance.

RobD

John_N4 said:

SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

The SNP feel that is a price worth paying for independence. If 50%+1 of the country do is another matter.

david_herdson

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

I've had a quick scan and can't see anything:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/pdfs/ukpga_20120011_en.pdf

HYUFD

Iain Murray, Shadow Scottish Secretary, has resigned

Charles

@TCPoliticalBetting

Replied on previous thread but cant cut and paste - standing on my mates drive trying to get a signal

weejonnie

felix said:

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

....

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

To prevent the domino effect?

So the power of the unelected EU bureaucracy is more important than the wealth and prosperity of its citizens.

So now we know.

Thrak

Around Europe realignments happen more frequently, ironic if exiting the EU will lead to a realignment of UK politics. Labour right and conservatve europhiles will join together (maybe with LDs, or what.'s left of them) and there will be a General Election as neither party has enough support in the commons.

As a centrist I know I'm hoping but everything is up on the air and anything can happen.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

At which point the UK PM should then hold a referendum in England and Wales on whether to eject Scotland from the UK, a referendum which would probably pass without too many problems now

Yes, but that is what she wants. Its win/win for the SNP right now.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Referendums are the locomotive of politics.

I am trying to work out if you think that is a good or bad thing

It's a thing.

RodCrosby

Sky: Corbyn 'not resigning'

PlatoSaid

DanSmith said:

We are living though never seen before and maybe never seen again history here. Enjoy (if you can !).

We've had some strange times on PB - but the last week has been truly astonishing.

An epidemic of Headless Chicken Virus.

Monksfield

Kinnock looked like he was eating a plate of poo then when the other guy pointed out that his own constituency voted 60% leave..

Labour committing suicide today. Cretinous.

FF43

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

They might ask the same question of the UK. We chose to Brexit. They are very against "cherry picking" and the possibility of others doing the same.

RobD

Charles said:

@TCPoliticalBetting

Replied on previous thread but cant cut and paste - standing on my mates drive trying to get a signal

The things you gotta do to get your PB fix!

timmo

peter_from_putney said:

Yeeks! Stephen Kinnock is as short as 14/1 to be the next leader of the Labour party.

Has anybody ever seen Stephen Kinnock and Dan Hanaan in the same foom together?

Jobabob

If Corbyn tries to come back Labour should split. Simple as that.

HYUFD

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we might be headed for the UK's greatest constitutional crisis since The Bedchamber Crisis

From the BBC.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

At which point the UK PM should then hold a referendum in England and Wales on whether to eject Scotland from the UK, a referendum which would probably pass without too many problems now

Yes, but that is what she wants. Its win/win for the SNP right now.

Good for the SNP, English voters could not care less now and if Scotland wishes to rush to join the EU and then the Eurozone good luck with that

Alistair

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

I've had a quick scan and can't see anything:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/pdfs/ukpga_20120011_en.pdf

There is nothing, interviewer asked her a hypothetical question.

numbertwelve

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

Then Parliament passes a law that says the Scotland Act doesn't apply here.

Parliament is the ultimate source of sovereign power in this country. It can do what it wants.

Floater

Scott_P said:

Apparently the banks will start moving jobs next week. Other deals will be cancelled.

Intimidation of immigrants are being reported round the country, and will be appearing on the nightly news.

Suggested betting market

How many weeks before or after the closure of the Tata Steel plant will we have a rerun of the in/Out vote?

I seem to recall you moaning when Labour jumped on any potential bad news, my how times have changed.

You another who thinks we have the wrong sort of Democracy?

DanSmith

HYUFD said:

McDonnell has confirmed he will be Corbyn's campaign manager again if there is another leadership election, looks very possible he could be comfortably re-elected again if a coup is attempted

Only needs a 10% swing to defeat him.

RobD

Alistair said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

I've had a quick scan and can't see anything:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/11/pdfs/ukpga_20120011_en.pdf

There is nothing, interviewer asked her a hypothetical question.

Hm, I heard earlier (maybe yesterday) that there was some things the Scottish Parliament would need to approve, something to do with the preamble to the Scotland Act?

EPG

John_N4 said:

SNPers - why do you want to be in a union you do 10% of your trade with, rather than one where you do 65% of your trade?

Why did UK withdraw from a union it does a large amount of its trade with, to a union of zero others it does none of its trade with? Imagined communities, sovereignty, fear of dominance.

TheScreamingEagles

Discuss

David Cameron: King Charles I

Boris Johnson: Oliver Cromwell

George Osborne: King Charles II

CopperSulphate

FF43 said:

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

Ttimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

They might ask the same question of the UK. We chose to Brexit. They are very against "cherry picking" and the possibility of others doing the same.

Are you saying the EU doesn't have free trade with any non-EU countries?

No wonder their economy is shot.

RobD

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

david_herdson said:

RobD said:

FPT

alex. said:

rottenborough said:

alex. said:

Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU

Wowa, what? Is there a mechanism?

It's this business of Scottish consent being required to repeal the 1972 act. I don't think anyone really knows the legal realities.

So we'd be in a situation after the two year period where the EU thinks we are out, but we still haven't repealed the 72 act?

Parliament can amend or repeal any Act it likes. There is no requirement for multiple- or super-majorities and no provision for any subset of parliament to exercise a veto, other than the Commons and Lords acting as individual Houses.

Sturgeon is talking bollocks, though bollocks that her followers will lap up.

I think the one thing is the Scotland Act, which requires consent from the Scottish Parliament.

Then Parliament passes a law that says the Scotland Act doesn't apply here.

Parliament is the ultimate source of sovereign power in this country. It can do what it wants.

Yeah true, it could simply amend the law.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Has been pointed out to me that in that picture, Tom Watson is drinking Thatcher's Gold

Bloody sell-out

TCPoliticalBetting

http://iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/26/exclusive-boris-aims-to-sign-up-150-mps-to-blow-rivals-out-of-the-water

ydoethur

Lowlander said:

malcolmg said:

PlatoSaid said:

RodCrosby said:

Ann Coffey MP: If Jezza doesn't go, no more Labour Party...

She really didn't pull any punches. Very firm and clear - I was rather impressed.

Iain Murray rumoured to be resigning - Labour's only Scottish MP

What a loss to Labour , a Titan among Scottish Labour MP's

Ian Murray is the most exceptional talent amongst Scottish Labour MPs a true one off.

Naughty. But brilliant!

There are of course more breeding pandas than Labour (or Tory, or Lib Dem, or Green) MPs in Scotland. If we make it successful ones, there are as many as there are flying pixies!

MyBurningEars

Extraordinary to watch Sturgeon get off her arse and make the most of the moment, while...

Labour's front bench are imploding.

The incumbent government is doing almost sod all to reassure the markets or calm the nerves of businesses, investors and employers (fear we are going to regret their lack of contingency planning, the overconfident ****s).

The head honchos of Leave are doing sod all either (at least in public - sure the backroom manoeuvres are going on as I write - but to be fair, they can't really make authoritative statements about the future while they are not the ones in high office).

To be fair Farron is trying to seize the moment too - maybe owning the 48% is a good strategy, beats 7%, but there are limits to being a professional party or contrarians.

PlatoSaid

Floater said:

RobD said:

First

I demand a rerun - how can I start a petition?

Just seen a tweet saying only 20% of those who've signed the petition are in the UK - based on their IP addresses.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Discuss

David Cameron: King Charles I

Boris Johnson: Oliver Cromwell

George Osborne: King Charles II

Gove: Richard Cromwell
Crabb: Charles II
Osborne: More like King James II

HYUFD

Thrak said:

Around Europe realignments happen more frequently, ironic if exiting the EU will lead to a realignment of UK politics. Labour right and conservatve europhiles will join together (maybe with LDs, or what.'s left of them) and there will be a General Election as neither party has enough support in the commons.

As a centrist I know I'm hoping but everything is up on the air and anything can happen.

At which point the Europhile establishment will have gone from being in charge of all 3 main parties at the last general election to just one, a new SDP2, a party which of course only ever managed 3rd place!

FF43

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

CopperSulphate said:

FF43 said:

Barnesian said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.

It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..

The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.

Ttimate supervision by the ECB.

There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.

What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?

Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?

I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).

Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.

Can someone explain to me how it can be in the interests of the EU to not have free trade with the UK?

They might ask the same question of the UK. We chose to Brexit. They are very against "cherry picking" and the possibility of others doing the same.

Are you saying the EU doesn't have free trade with any non-EU countries?

No wonder their economy is shot.

Confusion of terms. UK access to the single market is in doubt. That is different from free trade

midwinter

TheScreamingEagles said:

Discuss

David Cameron: King Charles I

Boris Johnson: Oliver Cromwell

George Osborne: King Charles II

Can't we have an unbeheaded David Cameron as The Merry Monarch please? And an 11 day rather than 11 year interregnum.