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  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA

    He's defecting to Leave?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    If it is a knife edge, then either way the EU debate will not be settled.

    Let alone the immigration issue. It's not going to go away.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    viewcode said:



    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.

    Anecdote: sitting peacefully translating and posting on PB, I suddenly got a stabbing pain in my knee, which has recurred whenever I get up or go up or down stairs. It's got a bit better after 2 days but I rang for a GP appointment as it's not really going away. I was quoted an appointment time of two weeks, which is way more than any previous experience. On the other hand, I was offered a phone chat with a GP in half an hour, which I had and was a perfectly good substitute (probably minor inflammation, apply Volterol and see what happens in a few days).

    So I'll cautiously buy into the idea that waiting times are getting worse, but also think that phone consultations are in principle a good evasive option for simple cases. In this case I don't think that actually attending would have made any difference.
    Get checked to see if you're diabetic. Undiagnosed diabetes can cause circulation problems.
    Yep. I have just had a diabetes and circulation full checkup as I had some pains in legs which the doc was worried about. Turns out I was fine - the Doc thinks I am suffering from stress (no shit Sherlock) but well worth getting in checked.

    Other signs are blurred vision, dry mouth, thirst and increased urination.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PM live now
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,386
    vik said:
    You could be right, but don't advertise it to those immigration sensitive Brexiters, they might just twig what that actually implies for post-Brexit Britain!

    On my own account, I myself must be slightly racist, as I've just momentarily mistaken the gherkin, in a small, leaden skied shot of London, to a woman in a burkha :O

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36581659
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    Mr Smithson was misled :open_mouth:
    The postal anecdotes and general crap turnout of the young make me think it should be 11-10 as Prof Curtice suggests if not even Evens.

    Have you decided which way to vote ?
    Probably Remain, very grudgingly.

    I'm expecting Leave to win, though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,934
    Patrick said:

    @TSE

    "Only When You Leave" by Spandau Ballet
    "Leaving Me Now" by Level 42

    I'm editing PB from 9.59pm on Thursday until Friday morning, I've got quite a few headlines already written.

    Nothing compares to EU

    Don't EU want me

    I will always love EU

    I got my mind set on EU

    Love to hate EU

    That sort of stuff
    EU keep me hanging on!
    Babe, I'm gonna leave you
    Leave you when the summer comes along...

    The weather is not cooperating.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    Here comes Dave!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA

    He's defecting to Leave?
    Vow to sack Mr Osborne, whoever wins the referendum?

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Is Cameron going to announce he'll resign if we Leave??
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    vik said:
    But I thought we were admitting non-white Turkey to the EU in a couple weeks time?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Is there going to be a reason for this speech?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098



    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.

    Anecdote: sitting peacefully translating and posting on PB, I suddenly got a stabbing pain in my knee, which has recurred whenever I get up or go up or down stairs. It's got a bit better after 2 days but I rang for a GP appointment as it's not really going away. I was quoted an appointment time of two weeks, which is way more than any previous experience. On the other hand, I was offered a phone chat with a GP in half an hour, which I had and was a perfectly good substitute (probably minor inflammation, apply Volterol and see what happens in a few days).

    So I'll cautiously buy into the idea that waiting times are getting worse, but also think that phone consultations are in principle a good evasive option for simple cases. In this case I don't think that actually attending would have made any difference.
    Nick, waiting times have gotten worse, at least at my surgery, there can be absolutely no doubt about that. To see my GP now takes about two weeks, in 1998 it was a maximum of three days. However, they do have measures in place for "emergency" appointments and telephone consultations are on offer in certain circumstances (though they don't like the over 60s using them - they want to get a look at you and get that blood pressure checked).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    Sounds like a resignation speech
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Is this Cameron very very worried?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    It actually does sound like a resignation speech.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    edited June 2016
    Pro_Rata said:

    vik said:
    On my own account, I myself must be slightly racist, as I've just momentarily mistaken the gherkin, in a small, leaden skied shot of London, to a woman in a burkha :O

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36581659
    Strange as it may sound, I did exactly the same thing!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,819
    edited June 2016
    JamesP said:

    viewcode said:

    currystar said:

    Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?

    I have £500@5/2 and £250@4/2 on LEAVE. It took me 3 months to raise that money: I don't actually like betting and getting that done hurt. Much as people like to fantasise about putting it all on black, it is b****y difficult to do that, both emotionally and in converting fixed to liquid assets. So that's the best I can do, sorry
    I'm small fry! The most I can lose is £24. I've bet £60 in total.
    We are but tiddlers in a ginormous pond. I think there are at least 3 individuals (4?) on this site who can afford to bet thousands without missing it, and an additional one who (given the discrepancy between the currency he is paid in and the currency his mortgage is paid in) should be betting on LEAVE winning, if only to cover his post-Brexit loss.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    What is Cameron saying?
  • vikvik Posts: 159

    vik said:
    But I thought we were admitting non-white Turkey to the EU in a couple weeks time?
    The Turks are white. :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What is Cameron saying?

    Vote Remain
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    What is Cameron saying?

    So far, it's the usual "Remain" stump speech, about how he believes the EU strengthens the UK. I'm wondering if it's building up to something though -- he said at the beginning it was going to be a "very personal statement".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628

    What is Cameron saying?

    Nothing he's not said before. Co-operation, security, tolerance etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Is this Cameron very very worried?

    I don't know what he's doing but, whatever it is, he wouldn't be doing it unless he was extremely concerned by private data.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    How come it says LEAVE +2?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    What is Cameron saying?

    Pro EU waffle, but in a strange tone - almost expect it to be followed by, 'and that is why today I have decided'
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    David Cameron 'Brits don't quit'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Is Dave off ?!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Not much democratic about the EU Commission and ECJ...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    He's gonna quit now.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Holy Fcuk - Cameron is using his day job in a final plea for votes.

    He's desperate. And can still bugger off.
  • Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    I hear a lot of this "advantage in postal votes" business. Can anyone provide the source for this assumption?
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Danny565 said:

    Is Cameron going to announce he'll resign if we Leave??

    Doubt it, that would be a reason for 10,000s of Labour voters to vote Leave. Few Conservatives voting Leave, will be unlikely to change their vote to Remain to 'Save Dave'.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Jeeze is he resigning?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    He's coming out for leave ?

    He's coming out as gay ?

    He voted for Corbyn with his £3 ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    This is Cameron getting round purdah.

    Using the trappings of office, to remind people he's the PM not just the leader of the Tory party
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    This sounds like either he's resigning or he's very very desperate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    Mortimer said:

    What is Cameron saying?

    Pro EU waffle, but in a strange tone - almost expect it to be followed by, 'and that is why today I have decided'
    Was thinking the same. Lots of past tense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,297



    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.

    Anecdote: sitting peacefully translating and posting on PB, I suddenly got a stabbing pain in my knee, which has recurred whenever I get up or go up or down stairs. It's got a bit better after 2 days but I rang for a GP appointment as it's not really going away. I was quoted an appointment time of two weeks, which is way more than any previous experience. On the other hand, I was offered a phone chat with a GP in half an hour, which I had and was a perfectly good substitute (probably minor inflammation, apply Volterol and see what happens in a few days).

    So I'll cautiously buy into the idea that waiting times are getting worse, but also think that phone consultations are in principle a good evasive option for simple cases. In this case I don't think that actually attending would have made any difference.
    Nick, waiting times have gotten worse, at least at my surgery, there can be absolutely no doubt about that. To see my GP now takes about two weeks, in 1998 it was a maximum of three days. However, they do have measures in place for "emergency" appointments and telephone consultations are on offer in certain circumstances (though they don't like the over 60s using them - they want to get a look at you and get that blood pressure checked).

    An appointment in two weeks for something like that is actually the right answer, since in that time it will either proved to have been 'on of those things' that just goes away, or a meniscus/cartilage problem that wont get better by itself, so GP will send you off for X-ray and potentially a spot of keyhole repair...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Either that or he's shitting himself about a Brexit vote much more than Ladbrokes are..

    Ladbrokes looked very sure of a Remain win.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,266
    I'm so glad Dave is finally telling us how he feels about the EU - the way he's had us all on tenterhooks with this trappist silence on the issue has been very difficult for us all.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
    Yep. They ask if you have already voted and assume that just goes into the 10/10 likelihood to vote calculation.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Not watching it but the comments here so far are priceless.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Thinking about the most recent Survation and most recent YouGov, both show Leave in a better position then their previous polls, which were also post-Jo. Could we be seeing a last minute counter-swing to leave?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Eagles, I agree.

    Abusing his position to get some airtime for a political broadcast without any pesky members of the public throwing a question his way.

    Mr. Slackbladder, be intriguing to know if this were always planned, or if it's a recent decision.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
    Yep. They ask if you have already voted and assume that just goes into the 10/10 likelihood to vote calculation.
    Thanks for the info, Richard. Wouldn't that therefore be a part exit poll and therefore illegal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I think I make money if Dave goes.

    I think..
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Thank goodness Cameron got his renegotiation or we'd have lost all of this.

    I'm being facetious and I suppose I'm not really helping my own side. But this whole rotten business can't end soon enough. The idea of Trump arriving and the events in Trafalgar Sq fill me with dread.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    That was all very odd.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I hope this is a reason for this speech.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Norm said:

    The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.

    That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
    Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
    IMO, 57% for Kent *as a whole* is fairly positive for Leave.
    No it really isn't. Not that I believe the poll is accurate.
    Is there any basis for suggesting the poll is/isn't accurate? Otherwise I share your assessment that this isn't really positive for leave - general consensus and voting data such as it is suggests that North Kent should be up there among the top handful of Leave-voting areas along with Lincolnshire, the Essex/London borderlands and the South Coast waiting rooms?
    The Medway towns and Kent coast and east coast will vote Leave, they are poorer and full of retirees but wealthier west Kent which is full of commuters may vote Remain
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA

    So significant that 5Live covered about a minute of it....

    "Please, older people, PLEASE vote to stay..."
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    JamesP said:

    Thinking about the most recent Survation and most recent YouGov, both show Leave in a better position then their previous polls, which were also post-Jo. Could we be seeing a last minute counter-swing to leave?

    Tiny movements though. I don't think it tells us anything except that it's on a knife-edge.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Seriously if Cameron beleived this, why would he have gone for a referendum in the first place?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Wow, no reason at all.

    He must be spooked.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,934
    I'll tell you what's going on. Cameron's going on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Danny565 said:

    That was all very odd.

    I didn't watch, can you give me the summary ?
  • El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    Scott_P said:

    Sounds like a resignation speech

    :-)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Well that was bollocks......
  • Might put some money on Leave after that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    edited June 2016
    That was weird. No big end to it, just a five minute stump speech for Remain. He looked a little rattled.
    Maybe he's hoping to get on the news tonight.

    Anyone reckon his private polls and postal vote returns show Leave ahead?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    So, anything new?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Odd time to do it lunchtime - it will get bits on later news but not the whole speech
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Well that was.....pointless....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    On topic, from Chris Hanratty's analysis, the following seats should be on the knife-edge if the vote is tied:

    1:30 am -
    Salford (expected 50.2% Remain)
    Merthyr Tydfil (expected 50.3% Remain)

    2:00 am -
    Hart (expected 49.8% Remain)
    Denbighshire (expected 50.1% Remain)

    2:30 am -
    Enfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Caerphilly (expected 49.8% Remain)

    3:00 am -
    Chesterfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Epsom & Ewell (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Durham (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Welwyn Hatfield (expected 50.3% Remain)
    Wirral (expected 50.2% Remain)

    3:30 am -
    Lancaster (expected 50.0% Remain)
    Newport (expected 50.2% Remain)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
    Yep. They ask if you have already voted and assume that just goes into the 10/10 likelihood to vote calculation.
    Thanks for the info, Richard. Wouldn't that therefore be a part exit poll and therefore illegal?
    Not thought of it that way. I did a Yougov last night and was definitely asked if I had already voted by post along with my intention/how I voted.

    But Exit Polls aren't illegal are they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Someone should point out to Norman Smith that our closest intelligence relationship is with the US, and of the Five Eyes group just one (the UK) is in the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    The biggest boost Dave could give to "remain" is quitting, now. I think the same holds true for Farage and leave.

    Of course neither will.
  • vikvik Posts: 159
    Pro_Rata said:

    vik said:
    You could be right, but don't advertise it to those immigration sensitive Brexiters, they might just twig what that actually implies for post-Brexit Britain!

    On my own account, I myself must be slightly racist, as I've just momentarily mistaken the gherkin, in a small, leaden skied shot of London, to a woman in a burkha :O

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36581659
    I'm sure most Brexiters wouldn't object to limited immigration by skilled non-white workers. A Chinese accountant or an Indian doctor wouldn't depress the wages of working class British people.

    The primary objection to EU immigration is that the British government has no control over who comes to the country. So, you end up large amounts of immigration by semi-skilled & unskilled workers who depress working class British wages.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,939
    For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.

    That's bonkers.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    edited June 2016
    He should have announced he was resigning. Wasted opportunity to make the thought of a Gove or Boris PM all too real in left wing voter's eyes, and bring them back from the brink.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    That was all very odd.

    I didn't watch, can you give me the summary ?
    It was literally nothing that he hasn't said a million times the last few weeks. Just "our economy is stronger", "as PM I've kept you safer as a result of the EU supporting us", "think of your grandchildren when you vote", "Brits don't quit", etcetc.

    Why it was billed as a "significant statement" is beyond me.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 507
    Mortimer said:

    I hope this is a reason for this speech.

    This isn't the first time he's done this:

    If the Crisis is a little more serious than all the issues that have summoned COBRA, such as Ash Dieback and horsemeat, then the most important thing that Number 10 can do is call a press conference with the Prime Minister. David Cameron doesn’t do that many press conferences at all, despite promising in Opposition that he would hold a monthly one, and so when he summons hacks to the roof of a hotel at short notice, you know that there is a Crisis that the Prime Minister is taking Very Seriously indeed...

    So the Crisis was that the Prime Minister had been watching the news last night. And presumably, that he had realised that the debate was indeed not on good turf for Remain, and that the polls were moving in favour of Leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    Seriously if Cameron beleived this, why would he have gone for a referendum in the first place?

    Because, he felt he could win it at a canter, I presume.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    I take it Dave didn't quit. I though he might be pre-announcing his resignation to take the sting out of any 'Vote Leave Sack Dave' motivation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    David Cameron 'Brits don't quit'

    No, us Leavers will keep fighting to our last breath....
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    I am shown three doors, behind one is a man trying to sweet talk an old granny, behind the other two are ways to waste five minutes of my life while feeling slightly uneasy.

    I choose door three.

    The host opens door one to reveal David Cameron outside No10 with a podium

    Do I switch?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    On topic, from Chris Hanratty's analysis, the following seats should be on the knife-edge if the vote is tied:

    1:30 am -
    Salford (expected 50.2% Remain)
    Merthyr Tydfil (expected 50.3% Remain)

    2:00 am -
    Hart (expected 49.8% Remain)
    Denbighshire (expected 50.1% Remain)

    2:30 am -
    Enfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Caerphilly (expected 49.8% Remain)

    3:00 am -
    Chesterfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Epsom & Ewell (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Durham (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Welwyn Hatfield (expected 50.3% Remain)
    Wirral (expected 50.2% Remain)

    3:30 am -
    Lancaster (expected 50.0% Remain)
    Newport (expected 50.2% Remain)

    From what my family and mother's friends tell me, I don't see how Denbighshire can be for Remain
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Cooke, that's a useful list. I hope things like that can be included in articles the site runs on the night (unsure if I'll stay up or not).

    Mr. Slackbladder, he's complacent, or full of it. Or both.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
    Yep. They ask if you have already voted and assume that just goes into the 10/10 likelihood to vote calculation.
    Thanks for the info, Richard. Wouldn't that therefore be a part exit poll and therefore illegal?
    Not thought of it that way. I did a Yougov last night and was definitely asked if I had already voted by post along with my intention/how I voted.

    But Exit Polls aren't illegal are they?
    They are illegal to publish prior to the polls closing AIUI Richard
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016
    Has Cameron lost the plot following Steve Hilton's intervention?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    rcs1000 said:

    For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.

    That's bonkers.

    Thanks
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Might put some money on Leave after that.

    Exactly.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    He's coming out for leave ?

    He's coming out as gay ?

    He voted for Corbyn with his £3 ?

    :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    On topic, from Chris Hanratty's analysis, the following seats should be on the knife-edge if the vote is tied:

    1:30 am -
    Salford (expected 50.2% Remain)
    Merthyr Tydfil (expected 50.3% Remain)

    2:00 am -
    Hart (expected 49.8% Remain)
    Denbighshire (expected 50.1% Remain)

    2:30 am -
    Enfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Caerphilly (expected 49.8% Remain)

    3:00 am -
    Chesterfield (expected 49.6% Remain)
    Epsom & Ewell (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Durham (expected 49.7% Remain)
    Welwyn Hatfield (expected 50.3% Remain)
    Wirral (expected 50.2% Remain)

    3:30 am -
    Lancaster (expected 50.0% Remain)
    Newport (expected 50.2% Remain)

    Merthyr Tydfil (expected 50.3% Remain) I'd be shocked if remain is that high in Merthyr.

    Ceredigion and Cardiff both to vote remain, alot of Wales will be leave though.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    1. Cameron looked emotional.
    2. His speech was very hard-hitting.
    3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way.
    4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain.
    5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.

    And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?

    Desperate? Does he know something we don't?

    Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,939
    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
    It's clear now that Leave has lost its lead. But I worry that Remain aren't far enough ahead to overcome Leave's clear advantage in postal votes.
    If you have voted by post then I think you are included in the polling anyway
    Yep. They ask if you have already voted and assume that just goes into the 10/10 likelihood to vote calculation.
    Thanks for the info, Richard. Wouldn't that therefore be a part exit poll and therefore illegal?
    Not thought of it that way. I did a Yougov last night and was definitely asked if I had already voted by post along with my intention/how I voted.

    But Exit Polls aren't illegal are they?
    They are illegal to publish prior to the polls closing AIUI Richard
    But using that info as part of an algorithm wouldn't be an exit poll.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    At least he didn't mention Jo Cox, that's something.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Sebastian Payne ‏@SebastianEPayne 2m2 minutes ago

    Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Corybyn gave an interesting answer to a question that's been raised several times on previous threads - if some new Tory leader wanted a snap election, would Labour agree?

    "If the government cannot continue for ever and ends up deciding that it needs to somehow or other navigate around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in order to have a general election a little sooner, all I can say is we are very, very ready for that."

    Bring it on! Insurgency vs Shambles.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451

    "Brits don't quit"

    No but we'll find out if you do on Friday morning! :smiley:



  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
    She's not big on Trump either but sheesh, she must churn out a 1,000 tweets or retweets a day and most are the same article and a response from her followers - she'll then say something 'trolling', get a response from an opponent and then take that comment to tweet to everyone over again.

    Last night for example based on the polling demographics she claimed 'the older you get, the wiser you are and so therefore you vote leave'... that got a few 'responses' which she then retweeted as summarising everyone in the remain camp....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    edited June 2016
    That was definitely odd.

    I think it's a reasonable interpretation to say that it's squeaky bum time in Number Ten.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    MontyHall said:

    I am shown three doors, behind one is a man trying to sweet talk an old granny, behind the other two are ways to waste five minutes of my life while feeling slightly uneasy.

    I choose door three.

    The host opens door one to reveal David Cameron outside No10 with a podium

    Do I switch?

    That's a tricky one Monty. I think I would.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Merthyr Tydfil (expected 50.3% Remain) I'd be shocked if remain is that high in Merthyr.

    It wouldn't surprise me if it was 60/40 Leave. Or more.
This discussion has been closed.