Looks to me like there is pain heading at some point for leveraged London property owners who didn't own their house since 1923 or whenever you lot managed to buy
The "north" property graph looks alot more sensible to me tbh ^^;
I wonder what could potentially act as a catalyst for higher interest rates though - I'm struggling to think of anything that could possibly be coming up in the near future...
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
David Herdson a great article - much better than the stuff national newspaper "big time" columnists write. https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair "As for Cameron, he could have led Leave. Had he walked away from the table against an inadequate deal on offer, he’d have a close-to-united party behind him and would be looking at a comfortable referendum win. "
He would have also almost guaranteed an accession to Osborne. Monumental own goals because they fell in love with europhillia - the love that should have been outlawed in the Conservative party.
Dad paid the deposit on the flat I got when I started work in Bham in 94. It was 35k and I sold it for 93k in 06, allowing me to buy a house.
The government is doing a little bit to undo the damage of the last ten years, but it's not enough. Its hands are tied because a lot of its voters are the new landlord class.
You clearly haven't seen the changes in interest tax relief coming in from 2017 onwards. That isn't being nice to landlords who have large mortgages. Also the ratio between renters and landlords is such that you really shouldn't be supporting landlords if you want to be elected
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
He waffled genially on Sky earlier.
Very pleasant but does he struggle to take on a brief given to him?
Sounds like our next Prime Minister. At least Alan Johnson had the self-awareness to know he was never up to that job.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Could they afford the mortgage if rates went up to 4% ? (QTWTAIY I suspect)
The bank wants to protect themselves rather than help anyone out I'd suggest.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Ludicrously that is true Hurst. The new rules have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage, paying more per month than they would for a mortgage of their own.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
He waffled genially on Sky earlier.
Very pleasant but does he struggle to take on a brief given to him?
I paid attention and have no idea what he was saying. Something something EU is great, something something I Was A Postman, something something Nobel Prize, something something...
It was quite remarkable. The interviewer didn't attempt to press him at all. Gove got a massive grilling.
It's over. Victoria Beckham has come out for Remain.
Pretty obvious she was going to come out and support her husband's position. But, her previous remarks are (if accurate) now a rather inconvenient fact of public record.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
I'm on a lifetime tracker at 1.89% + base. I've never considered changing it
Depends on where you live. If you are in an area of rapid house price growth you may be better off remortgaging against a better LTV – although your deal is clearly very competitive.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
He waffled genially on Sky earlier.
Very pleasant but does he struggle to take on a brief given to him?
I think he's pretty much on brief with comments this morning, per my original post. I'm assuming that the REMAIN brief is something like "shit on immigration as an issue as much as you feel able particularly if you can insinuate that all LEAVERS are racist". I've not heard him go all the way on this which is sort of reasonable.
It's over. Victoria Beckham has come out for Remain.
Pretty obvious she was going to come out and support her husband's position. But, her previous remarks are (if accurate) now a rather inconvenient fact of public record.
It's most amusing Twitter sport - some much needed light relief.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
I'm on a lifetime tracker at 1.89% + base. I've never considered changing it
Depends on where you live. If you are in an area of rapid house price growth you may be better off remortgaging against a better LTV – although your deal is clearly very competitive.
House prices have gone nowhere round here, in fact a colleague of mine even sold at a loss (Well she's trying to sell...) - the absolute values are lowish compared to overall salary though (Certainly compared to darn sarf/London) (My property I paid ~ 3* my current salary for) so any effect is cushioned in % terms.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
UK’s drivers and white van man overwhelmingly do not trust the EU on motoring issues related to roads, emissions, safety standards, fuel tax, cost of motoring or car manufacturing issues.
In the largest poll of attitude towards the European Union, 27,833 UK based residents answered questions concerning issues that impact on UK drivers ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the EU. These respondents came from the supporter base of the FairFuelUK campaign and from non-registered supporters via social media. The survey took place between May 12th to June 13th 2016.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
Seems odd as this morning we have had weather worries & Mike's thoughts on peak Leave postal balloting.
(And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
Can I declare PB a "safe space" on ultra bearish London house price comments?
Have you already voted against your own interests @Charles ?
My own interests are immaterial when set against the best interests of the people of the United Kingdom
But you are voting Leave, aren't you?
Have voted Leave. I'm suspect that my personal NAV will decline as a result, but my view is that the best long term interests of our people are served by independence
I'm down to West Somerset at the weekend to start to figure out how to put things back together again...
It's over. Victoria Beckham has come out for Remain.
Pretty obvious she was going to come out and support her husband's position. But, her previous remarks are (if accurate) now a rather inconvenient fact of public record.
It's most amusing Twitter sport - some much needed light relief.
I think she made her anti-EU comments, erm, 20 years ago.
People can change their mind in that time, would you believe.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
Backing remain right now sounds like a great way to lose money in the long term to me. Prof Curtice reckons Leave is 11-10, so for it to be 3-1 + is barmy.
If Hilton's such an idiot, WTF did the PM employ him? I suppose it's not quite as bad as the PM employing a criminal.
Wasn't the Big Society his idea? People laugh at the concept, but that concept has saved the government billions through cuts to public services.
I'm a huge supporter of the big society concept - cynics in the media killed it stone dead as a policy.
They just changed the name. In tandem with the cutbacks to taxpayer-funded local services there are several government schemes to encourage businesses and the third sector to take up the slack.
David Herdson a great article - much better than the stuff national newspaper "big time" columnists write. https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair "As for Cameron, he could have led Leave. Had he walked away from the table against an inadequate deal on offer, he’d have a close-to-united party behind him and would be looking at a comfortable referendum win. "
He would have also almost guaranteed an accession to Osborne. Monumental own goals because they fell in love with europhillia - the love that should have been outlawed in the Conservative party.
The one small flaw in this otherwise brilliant plan is that Brexit most likely blows up the economy, and blowing up your own economy would tend to reflect badly on the Chancellor of the Exchequer, since his job is to stop it blowing up.
David Herdson a great article - much better than the stuff national newspaper "big time" columnists write. https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair "As for Cameron, he could have led Leave. Had he walked away from the table against an inadequate deal on offer, he’d have a close-to-united party behind him and would be looking at a comfortable referendum win. "
He would have also almost guaranteed an accession to Osborne. Monumental own goals because they fell in love with europhillia - the love that should have been outlawed in the Conservative party.
The one small flaw in this otherwise brilliant plan is that Brexit most likely blows up the economy, and blowing up your own economy would tend to reflect badly on the Chancellor of the Exchequer, since his job is to stop it blowing up.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
There are.
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
You should have been around in the 1970s when variable rate mortgage interest doubled from 6% to 12%.
Whilst higher rates reduce the original purchase price, that's not so good if you buy when interest rates are low and then pay the mortgage when interest rates are high.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
There are.
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
How is your brother feeling about the possibility of Brexit ?
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
Exactly. Try avoiding the "standard rate" when interest rates rise (as they inevitably will) and house prices have tanked. Negative equity, defaults, bankruptcies. We're due a shock like that, it's been a long time since the last one (20 years?).
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
There are.
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Ludicrously that is true Hurst. The new rules have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage, paying more per month than they would for a mortgage of their own.
Jobabob and Pulpstar, thanks for answering my question.
I rather think that regardless of the EU there has to be a correction in house prices coming down the line at least in London and the South East. I don't think that the present situation is sustainable economically and, especially, socially. It will hurt when it comes but I think it is necessary that does happen.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
Leave's voters are not all passionate though. To get 51% they will still be relying on the recent working class labour converts to the cause - who are much weaker than kippers or leave tories in their convictions and likelihood to vote.
The flipside is that crap weather probably also depresses the youth remain vote too.
Yes I think that there is a group of people (because PB Leavers represent this group) who have been waiting 20 years for the opportunity to tell the EU to eff off and neither hell nor high water will prevent them from getting to the polls.
I would imagine that many if not most Leavers don't have the same passion, while others succumbed to a Braveheart moment because it felt so good.
Come the day, if it's tipping down, it will allow these an excuse to not be that Braveheart guy and instead blame the weather and not bother.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
Backing remain right now sounds like a great way to lose money in the long term to me. Prof Curtice reckons Leave is 11-10, so for it to be 3-1 + is barmy.
Indeed. It is so short there is no point backing it.
You should have been around in the 1970s when variable rate mortgage interest doubled from 6% to 12%.
Whilst higher rates reduce the original purchase price, that's not so good if you buy when interest rates are low and then pay the mortgage when interest rates are high.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
There are.
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
How is your brother feeling about the possibility of Brexit ?
He's playing his cards close to his chest, as always. But all of his partners have voted Leave.
It's over. Victoria Beckham has come out for Remain.
Pretty obvious she was going to come out and support her husband's position. But, her previous remarks are (if accurate) now a rather inconvenient fact of public record.
It's most amusing Twitter sport - some much needed light relief.
I think she made her anti-EU comments, erm, 20 years ago.
People can change their mind in that time, would you believe.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Could they afford the mortgage if rates went up to 4% ? (QTWTAIY I suspect)
The bank wants to protect themselves rather than help anyone out I'd suggest.
Protecting themselves is helping out their savers and shareholders - and preventing people from committing to long-term debt they may not be able to afford is helping out the putative borrower too. It's one thing to be paying £1500/mth; it's another to be paying that and to have a debt of £325k or so, even if there's an asset securing it.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
You should have been around in the 1970s when variable rate mortgage interest doubled from 6% to 12%.
Whilst higher rates reduce the original purchase price, that's not so good if you buy when interest rates are low and then pay the mortgage when interest rates are high.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Ludicrously that is true Hurst. The new rules have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage, paying more per month than they would for a mortgage of their own.
Look at it another way, crazy house price rises cheered on by the Jobabobs of this world have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
I'm on a lifetime tracker at 1.89% + base. I've never considered changing it
I can beat that. I'm on a lifetime tracker of 0.99% plus base. When I look at mortgage rates now, I can't believe my luck
Do we have any idea who the 'marginal' voters are in the referendum? Which group would make the most difference if they go from DK to one side or the other? Is it Labour C2D voters? To whom should the final scares be mongered?
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
As it happens, I know the answer to that question. It's because she shut the door when she went to the toilet.
I'm very impressed by Sean's detailed knowledge on the subject.
It was in an interview she gave many years ago.
Are you being serious?
Entirely.
I remember a delicious dinner party where I was the only male amongst 11 female medics; quite a revelation into female habits for a shy boy who grew up as an only child.
UK’s drivers and white van man overwhelmingly do not trust the EU on motoring issues related to roads, emissions, safety standards, fuel tax, cost of motoring or car manufacturing issues.
In the largest poll of attitude towards the European Union, 27,833 UK based residents answered questions concerning issues that impact on UK drivers ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the EU. These respondents came from the supporter base of the FairFuelUK campaign and from non-registered supporters via social media. The survey took place between May 12th to June 13th 2016.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Just about everything Dave and George have said and done for the last eight years or so seems to have been designed to lose this referendum. It is the ultimate study in tactics over strategy: from portraying the EU as the enemy, through being entirely negative and deceitful about immigration numbers; to presiding over major cuts in services, especially in areas of high immigration, and changing voter registration rules. They have reaped what they have sowed.
Regarding Michael Gove's interview on Today this morning, I listened to it attentively not because of what it told us about Brexit, but what it told us about whether he might make a credible PM and party leader.
I'd recommend anyone else betting on the the leadership to do the same. FWIW my take was that he was (as always) very fluent and persuasive on the main subject of the interview, for which obviously he was well-briefed (this was all familiar stuff, of course), but that he wasn't terribly good in dealing with the hostile points which Nick Robinson raised.
Mr. (Mrs? I do apologise forgetting) Pioneers, I agree. I think May's got no respect for civil liberties and doesn't even understand them. But she's still amongst the frontrunners for the job, and personal dislike shouldn't get in the way of objective assessment.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
Ludicrously that is true Hurst. The new rules have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage, paying more per month than they would for a mortgage of their own.
Look at it another way, crazy house price rises cheered on by the Jobabobs of this world have consigned a generation to paying off someone else's mortgage.
Not really. What I say and/or do makes sod all difference to the housing market.
Regarding Michael Gove's interview on Today this morning, I listened to it attentively not because of what it told us about Brexit, but what it told us about whether he might make a credible PM and party leader.
I'd recommend anyone else betting on the the leadership to do the same. FWIW my take was that he was (as always) very fluent and persuasive on the main subject of the interview, for which obviously he was well-briefed (this was all familiar stuff, of course), but that he wasn't terribly good in dealing with the hostile points which Nick Robinson raised.
Plus not going to make hundreds of friends in the cabinet by saying "I don't want to blame anyone" (on non-EU migration number being so high) = I blame my useless colleagues.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
For reasons I find hard to fathom I have met several who are not shy of telling me their opinions but proudly declare themselves to be non-voters and wear it as a badge of honour.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
Heavy rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland would be good for LEAVE.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
I'm not sure I agree. I've been surprised by the vehemence of Cameron in this campaign. If it was all about tactics, he could have either adopted the Wilson approach and stayed above the fray, or rejected the deal on offer in February and thrown himself behind Leave, which wouldn't have split the Tories half as badly and would almost certainly have resulted in him finishing on the winning side, splitting Labour and negating UKIP.
I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. Indeed, it's telling how much he went out of his way to avoid hypothetically endorsing the future Leave campaign, even when it might have helped in negotiations.
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
Talking to a youngish couple who are renting a house down the road and paying £1500 a month in rent. They tell me they have got together a deposit but can't get a mortgage because under new rules the repayments would be too large a part of their income, even though they would be less than the rent they are now paying.
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
There are.
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
Well quite. The new rules on loans are absurd.
You're looking at the Money Laundering Directive (iterations various). Blame the EU for a triumph of process over allowing people to think.
FWIW, the application of various rules is part of banks' attempts to protect themselves from capricious regulators and politicians, the view being if one doesn't do anything, one can't be blamed later.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
For reasons I find hard to fathom I have met several who are not shy of telling me their opinions but proudly declare themselves to be non-voters and wear it as a badge of honour.
Same, curiously though they are all working class remainers.
Comments
Some interesting graphs here on house prices.
Looks to me like there is pain heading at some point for leveraged London property owners who didn't own their house since 1923 or whenever you lot managed to buy
The "north" property graph looks alot more sensible to me tbh ^^;
I wonder what could potentially act as a catalyst for higher interest rates though - I'm struggling to think of anything that could possibly be coming up in the near future...
Sounds crackers too me, can anyone say if there are such rules?
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair
"As for Cameron, he could have led Leave. Had he walked away from the table against an inadequate deal on offer, he’d have a close-to-united party behind him and would be looking at a comfortable referendum win. "
He would have also almost guaranteed an accession to Osborne. Monumental own goals because they fell in love with europhillia - the love that should have been outlawed in the Conservative party.
The bank wants to protect themselves rather than help anyone out I'd suggest.
It was quite remarkable. The interviewer didn't attempt to press him at all. Gove got a massive grilling.
She never seemed very posh to me.
So anyhoo, Victoria Beckham doesn't want to say 'Goodbye' to the EU, she thinks it is better when '2 Become 1' and she wants to 'Stop' Brexit.
Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
Is there a poll due out ?? I must say this poll leaking that has been going on is really quite worrying. It's not cricket. Punters of all sides should condemn it.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/745203096616329216
In the largest poll of attitude towards the European Union, 27,833 UK based residents answered questions concerning issues that impact on UK drivers ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the EU. These respondents came from the supporter base of the FairFuelUK campaign and from non-registered supporters via social media. The survey took place between May 12th to June 13th 2016.
76% of drivers will vote to leave
http://www.fairmotoring.com/index.php?entry_id=1466445358
I'm down to West Somerset at the weekend to start to figure out how to put things back together again...
People can change their mind in that time, would you believe.
Prof Curtice reckons Leave is 11-10, so for it to be 3-1 + is barmy.
At least with GS it's because I know they are transparently self-interested.
I won't comment on Jeffries. Don't want to get your Dad in trouble...
And they are as sensible as the rules that say my brother has to ask any passing billionaire that he wants to lend money to how much he spends on his gas bill each month.
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
2 Become 1 was a thinly veiled paean to ever closer union.
You should have been around in the 1970s when variable rate mortgage interest doubled from 6% to 12%.
Whilst higher rates reduce the original purchase price, that's not so good if you buy when interest rates are low and then pay the mortgage when interest rates are high.
See
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Documents/articles/2015/6jul.pdf
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
I rather think that regardless of the EU there has to be a correction in house prices coming down the line at least in London and the South East. I don't think that the present situation is sustainable economically and, especially, socially. It will hurt when it comes but I think it is necessary that does happen.
I would imagine that many if not most Leavers don't have the same passion, while others succumbed to a Braveheart moment because it felt so good.
Come the day, if it's tipping down, it will allow these an excuse to not be that Braveheart guy and instead blame the weather and not bother.
I think I'm not going to bother betting on the referendum, though. Much better to stick with F1.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Indeed. It is so short there is no point backing it.
I guess it could well depend on next Thursday. If we do Brexit alot of Brown and Osborne's chickens could well come home to roost.
I've not seen a copy of the Survation.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
I'd recommend anyone else betting on the the leadership to do the same. FWIW my take was that he was (as always) very fluent and persuasive on the main subject of the interview, for which obviously he was well-briefed (this was all familiar stuff, of course), but that he wasn't terribly good in dealing with the hostile points which Nick Robinson raised.
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
It's Hear'Say.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
https://twitter.com/CEO4TAG/status/745161897058533376
I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. Indeed, it's telling how much he went out of his way to avoid hypothetically endorsing the future Leave campaign, even when it might have helped in negotiations.
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
It's over...
FWIW, the application of various rules is part of banks' attempts to protect themselves from capricious regulators and politicians, the view being if one doesn't do anything, one can't be blamed later.