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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Nuneaton declaration, at about 2am, looks set to be the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Nuneaton declaration, at about 2am, looks set to be the first big pointer as to whether we are IN or OUT
Back at GE2015 I think I can claim to have been the first to have identified Nuneaton, amongst the seats likely to declare early, as being the one to look forward to. This was a key target for Labour and a win would have suggested that it could be heading to win most seats.
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Maybe I should vote brexit for a chance of improvement!
@faisalislam: Roubini's view -significant as it explodes "economists are all EU-funded and uselessly failed to predict crash" meme https://t.co/QznOxAeiKn
However, occupation makes a difference. Both of them found their costs reduced when they stopped being students.
All joking aside - if someone says that or is transgender - what do insurance firms do?
I'm beginning to think that the reason for this odd telephone/online effect is because with online the person being polled made the initial contact so knows who they are dealing with whereas on phone a stranger contacts them out of the blue so they are far more guarded.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/how-should-i-vote-in-the-eu-referendum
My car is just statistically a bad one. It's gone up the last two years, despite no accidents or convictions.
I'm sure insurance tax going up doesn't help!
Bizarrely that might actuallly reduce the over all costs, my daughter went on her boyfriends car ( similar ages to yourself ) and the quote came out lower by about £150
This is supposedly a betting site, I posted a couple of weeks ago that with the exception of a handful very few on here have the foggiest understanding of betting. In the chart at the top Leave are ahead in 9 of 16 polls yet can be backed at 3/1. I've no idea what the outcome will be but anybody backing Remain at around 1/4 is a guesser.
They may well collect but backing 1/4 shots on the toss of a coin is the road to certain ruin.
Remain are a similar price to Germany beating N.Ireland tonight.
A point on this Curtice chap and 40/45%, does he think that is what Leave will get in terms of % votes or does he think that is the probability of Leave winning? Plenty don't understand the difference, perhaps he doesn't.
They are a bit ambiguous as to whether it's the biggest market or the biggest event - there are/were subsidiary markets too though these in the EURef are all much smaller (I don't have the figures for the 2012POTUSE). Even so, £1.23m has been traded on the EURef turnout, which for a political market is still sizable.
Oh, and I'm sure he knows the difference between probability of winning, and percentage share of vote.
I've just read the Hilton quote about Cameron being told by the CS in 2012 that it was impossible to reduce immigration to 100,000 while we were in the EU. Yet it became "no ifs, no buts" and in the 2015 Tory manifesto.
Yes, I know it's politics, so lying is to be expected, but this was so blatant. It's shows the derision in which they must hold the voters. We're too thick anyway so we won't notice. And it's a good soundbite.
I notice it's now become an 'ambition', and in two years time, it will always have been only an ambition. You're got a faulty memory, obviously. Would any Cameron supporter like to defend this?
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Again, this is because this is a referendum, not a constituency-based GE.
FTP Prof Curtis reckons there is a 40-45% chance thar Leave will win. Doesn't strike me as unreasonable (i'd probably peg it at 33% personally
In terms of where the market are it, it's hard to marry it with polling. i suspect it's becoming quite disconnected with the fundamentals, it's of a size where the sheer weight of money already in the market is driving things. People attempting to cover positions or minimise loses. Perhaps even some profit taking.
At some point, people attempt to buy "free money" by backing a short priced favourite driving it way below value. As the price plummets, others rush in thinking there much be reasons behind it. Typical betfair "mug rush" behaviour to be avoided at any cost.
I wonder why that could be?
The Guardian has countered with George Soros saying it'll be another ERM mess with knobs on. I'm more intrigued as to why Soros isn't keeping this to himself. He made billions back in the 90s on just that one day alone.
And we've a thwarted suicide bomber attack in Belgium. Glad I don't live there.
I think of the referendum as like a cricket match, as it progresses the prices move up and down, the mo year is to be made in calling the peaks and troughs. And at least the referendum won't finish in a draw!
I don't have the complete list but he is expecting every single Scottish result to favour Leave.
Not long now, until the Austrian Grand Prix. Nice fast circuit. Interesting to see how Ferrari do, with their improved engine. McLaren will hate it.
Nuneaton is becoming a bit of a fixture. I wonder if money will change things on Betfair more rapidly (if it's good for Leave, assuming Remain still is favourite) than at the General Election.
EDIT- got it the wrong way around first time
My earlier post mentioned people who don't understand betting.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/who-can-you-trust-on-the-eu-referendum-the-pollsters-or-the-bookies
There are thirty six million voters in rest of England and Wales.
If all the voters in London, Scotland, NI and Gib vote remain it would still be overturned by 63.8% of rest of Englands voters voting leave.
If 70% of Scotland, Ni, London and Gib vote remain then it needs just 55.5% of people in rest of England and Wales need to vote leave to win.
If 60% of Scotland, NI, London and Gib vote remain then just 52.7% rest of England need to vote leave to win.
If 55% then just 51.3%
It is England and Wales outside London that is key to this.
Finickity, but the 'wether' actually refers to a castrated ram. One with a bell would lead the flock around, hence the term.
Mr. Sandpit, the upgraded Renault engine is a step up from where it was, though still third fastest. I expect they'll make Q3 but they won't be at the sharp end.
Williams could be worth watching.
But I am sure that those who kept claiming that the deficit was not important knew what they were talking about.
If you are confident that will happen. Big IF that.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/07/alastair-meeks-on-how-conservative-leavers-could-gift-labour-the-next-election/
All successful politician lie, but they don't usually say "No ifs, no buts," and I don't expect them to apologise.
But ...
"Matilda told such awful lies, it made one gasp and stretch one's eyes.
Her aunt, who from her earliest youth, had kept a strict regard for truth,
attempted to believe Matilda. The effort very nearly killed her."
The next stage will be ... "He never said that exactly, it was an ambition."
Joe Anderson (Liverpool mayor) is fretting about the level of immigration, but is suggesting we stay in and change some of the basic tenets of the EU. He's not stupid, so he knows he's talking bollocks, but it's not lying. It's called happy to be fooled? No, he knows he suggesting something that won't happen but it's not a lie.
Our Mr P (cut and paste) is honest. I can respect him for that. I believe we need controlled immigration, not uncontrolled immigration, but that's my subjective opinion only. I respect politicians who tell the truth. Frank Field is one, but like Jezza the loon, it is also his downfall.
Dave is an excellent politician, as was Blair, but they always go too far. Is it Hubris?
I have no idea if I am a one off - but I wonder if the creation of a very strong pro-European faction will be one of the results of the referendum? If so, this might be a story that is going to carry on even if leave wins on Thursday.
Add your girlfriend to your insurance as a second driver, will often reduce your insurance.
Try Direct Line, see what they offer you.
I'd also imagine that the GBP/EUR rate won't change an awful lot. If we vote to leave then both will fall against the USD and YEN
1. Remain/Remain
2. Leave/Leave
3. Leave/Remain
4. Remain/Leave
I guess that this isn't as interesting as it's a binary choice meaning that it is unlikely that three or four will happen. But my instinct tells me that three is more likely than four.
But yes Nuneaton is important !
(It was also an EU edict that forced the regulation of insurance by the FSA (now FCA) with the result that you get about ten tons of paper when you buy an insurance policy.)
This amount of paper is going to increase in August when the CMA forces all insurance companies offering a protected no claims bonus to disclose the notional cost, the discount you get for the protected bonus, the number of claims for which you get protection and the step-back bonus scale if you don't buy the product.
No one really wants to know all this, they just want the cheapest, rubbishy cover they can find.
As a broker, I will have to submit ALL the no claims bonus scales of every company I use to the CMA - despite them getting exactly the same information from 3000 other brokers.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5913747/the-best-scenes-from-the-most-demented-german-childrens-book-ever-published