Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
I'm sure Farage won't want to miss a photo-opportunity with the Donald. No doubt take him to a UKIP baby-roast....
The Kent poll implies Leave are about 4-6 in front across the SE, and Natcen found Remain at 67% and Leave at 75% on Certain to Vote.
NatCen also found a swing to Leave
"The levels of support for Remain and Leave varied over the course of fieldwork. There was a considerably higher level of support for remain in the first two weeks than in the last two weeks; indeed, in the third week more people backed Leave than did Remain"
Regarding Michael Gove's interview on Today this morning, I listened to it attentively not because of what it told us about Brexit, but what it told us about whether he might make a credible PM and party leader.
I'd recommend anyone else betting on the the leadership to do the same. FWIW my take was that he was (as always) very fluent and persuasive on the main subject of the interview, for which obviously he was well-briefed (this was all familiar stuff, of course), but that he wasn't terribly good in dealing with the hostile points which Nick Robinson raised.
He doesn't deal well with fist-fights. He clearly finds it uncomfortable, and not aggressive enough to respond in kind.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
I'm on a lifetime tracker at 1.89% + base. I've never considered changing it
I can beat that. I'm on a lifetime tracker of 0.99% plus base. When I look at mortgage rates now, I can't believe my luck
My offset mortgage is 0.49% + base rate. Not that its used but its a spare £100,000 if I need money in a hurry...
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be called left wing views and policies. Having been a staunch Conservative voter all my life it seems more and more to me that they actually do not have any answers to 21st century problems. Furthermore the policies they do enact seem to always have the result of making the rich richer at the expense of everyone else.
I found myself nodding at some of McDonnell's economic ideas the other week. I would never vote for the bloke because of some of his other views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be called left wing views and policies. Having been a staunch Conservative voter all my life it seems more and more to me that they actually do not have any answers to 21st century problems. Furthermore the policies they do enact seem to always have the result of making the rich richer at the expense of everyone else.
I found myself nodding at some of McDonnell's economic ideas the other week. I would never vote for the bloke because of some of his other views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
The best people get more left-wing as they get older. The ideal is to end up a 90 year old, enthusiastic and radical, loving life and bubbling with ideas about how the world can be better.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
Gove spoke approvingly of May on Sky earlier - it was just a sentence or two, but it stood out.
Osborne is history as far as I am concerned, and even as a remainer I would like to see Gove as Chancellor
Tories can unite after all!
Osborne being the sacrificial lamb was all part of his master plan.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Yes, Donald Trump will show all the subtlety and nuance that I am famous for.
This could backfire massively. http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/rest-power-corporate-spin-doctors-take-control-cox-image/ "After yesterday’s genuinely tear-jerking tributes in parliament, a media event has been organised tomorrow in Trafalgar Square in memory of Jo Cox. Corporate lobbyists Freuds are organising broadcast coverage and Alastair Campbell’s Portland are doing the press, after Bad Al spent the last three days making it about the referendum: "An emotional pull on the heart-strings on the eve of the referendum…"
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
The best thing Trump could do for Leave is endorse Remain.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
I wish he'd piss off and shut up.
Why is it the men (and it is almost always men) with the biggest egos lack any self-awareness and are always totally oblivious of the negative impact they have?
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
TSE Do you really think that is right though?
My experience is that many people are like Jezza-reluctant Remainers- I genuinely have one friend who is a really passionate remainer-and he really is committed!!
Most Leavers seem on balance seem to be more fired up than Remainers although I don't think the difference is huge.
I did speak to someone who knows his stuff, he said we're looking too much at the following
1) The self certifying turnouts
2) The age splits
When we should be focusing on the class splits.
Leave to some extent are relying on the classes that don't turnout, whilst Remain have the support of those classes that do turnout.
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
The low turnout expectation to which you refer simply isn't the case ..... Spreadex has a turnout spread for the UK of 69.5% - 70.5%, i.e. a mid-point of 70.0%.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be called left wing views and policies. Having been a staunch Conservative voter all my life it seems more and more to me that they actually do not have any answers to 21st century problems. Furthermore the policies they do enact seem to always have the result of making the rich richer at the expense of everyone else.
I found myself nodding at some of McDonnell's economic ideas the other week. I would never vote for the bloke because of some of his other views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
The best people get more left-wing as they get older. The ideal is to end up a 90 year old, enthusiastic and radical, loving life and bubbling with ideas about how the world can be better.
"...Enthusiastic, radical ... bubbling with ideas..." that all sounds very energetic and time consuming. I'm not sure I'd like that; it would probably interfere with my morning walk and glass of whisky, not to mention my afternoon nap. Perhaps I could just be mildly enthused and a bit radical on alternate Tuesdays. I'll cope with the loving life bit though.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
I'm not sure I agree. I've been surprised by the vehemence of Cameron in this campaign. If it was all about tactics, he could have either adopted the Wilson approach and stayed above the fray, or rejected the deal on offer in February and thrown himself behind Leave, which wouldn't have split the Tories half as badly and would almost certainly have resulted in him finishing on the winning side, splitting Labour and negating UKIP.
I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. Indeed, it's telling how much he went out of his way to avoid hypothetically endorsing the future Leave campaign, even when it might have helped in negotiations.
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Politicians generally want to do things that work well and make them popular. Brexit would be really, really bad for the economy short-term, probably quite bad long-term, so it obviously fails the "work well" test. And whoever is lumbered with the actual real-world negotiation post-Brexit is going to be considered a traitor by the people who are currently supporting leave, so if you add that to Remain supporters mad at him for leaving he'd end up supported by about four people.
The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.
A mixed endorsement:
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Yes, Donald Trump will show all the subtlety and nuance that I am famous for.
So far... Trump's next press conference is scheduled for Friday morning at Turnberry.
I'm not sure exactly when Trump Force One is arriving.
Biden is in Ireland this week. Trump is heading there after Scotland. Enda Kenny has said he would meet him. Cameron has "no plans" to meet Trump.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
Or in the real world the "welfare reforms have driven people to suicide"
Regarding Michael Gove's interview on Today this morning, I listened to it attentively not because of what it told us about Brexit, but what it told us about whether he might make a credible PM and party leader.
I'd recommend anyone else betting on the the leadership to do the same. FWIW my take was that he was (as always) very fluent and persuasive on the main subject of the interview, for which obviously he was well-briefed (this was all familiar stuff, of course), but that he wasn't terribly good in dealing with the hostile points which Nick Robinson raised.
That's because Gove is not an instinctive politician. He enjoys ideas; he likes debate; he has a vision for how he'd like (at least some aspects of) the country to be. But he's neither keen on nor good at playing the game. He'd be a poor PM and seems to know it.
Interesting article. I partly agree, but there's I think a big difference. Blair was utterly convinced that it was vitally important to overthrow Saddam, and relished the job of persuading everyone to do it. He still thinks so, though he undoubtedly regrets the cost in personal esteem.
Cameron, so far as I can see, doesn't do utter conviction about anything very much (which can be a healthy thing - Blair is unquestionably too sure of his judgment), but he prizes tactics over strategy and he likes winning. So promising a referendum on something he thought was a seriously bad idea seemed (and was) a good wheeze to win the 2015 election; no doubt the 2016 referendum could be won too by whatever arguments came to hand, and if not, oh well, he was retiring anyway.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
I'm not sure I agree. I've been surprised by the vehemence of Cameron in this campaign. If it was all about tactics, he could have either adopted the Wilson approach and stayed above the fray, or rejected the deal on offer in February and thrown himself behind Leave, which wouldn't have split the Tories half as badly and would almost certainly have resulted in him finishing on the winning side, splitting Labour and negating UKIP.
I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. Indeed, it's telling how much he went out of his way to avoid hypothetically endorsing the future Leave campaign, even when it might have helped in negotiations.
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Politicians generally want to do things that work well and make them popular. Brexit would be really, really bad for the economy short-term, probably quite bad long-term, so it obviously fails the "work well" test. And whoever is lumbered with the actual real-world negotiation post-Brexit is going to be considered a traitor by the people who are currently supporting leave, so if you add that to Remain supporters mad at him for leaving he'd end up supported by about four people.
David is there a word missing: "I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. " Surely that's the only explanation.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
The difference between the polls and the betting markets is quite staggering. They must have other information. I remember when Betfred paid out on the tories as largest party before the GE I was amazed, yet they knew.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
I find this chart staggering:
I came across this when cost forecasting for a large US business. After the US 'golden age' of the 50's and early 60's, real income for most people has been totally stagnant.
The gap in comparative income between a US C1C2D worker and a UK one was unbelievably large 60 years ago; much, much closer now.
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Agreed. He seems to have had a strategy going back two decades - first to neutralise the Eurosceptic head-bangers in his own party, then to marginalise them, and finally to defeat them by anchoring the UK in Europe. It's certainly a high-stakes gamble to fight a referendum, but then nothing ever gets solved in politics by avoiding the difficult questions.
The difference between the polls and the betting markets is quite staggering. They must have other information. I remember when Betfred paid out on the tories as largest party before the GE I was amazed, yet they knew.
Like the other information the Betting markets had on no overall majority ?
@faisalislam: So the Beckhams aren't allowed an opinion for "not knowing anything", and Nobel prize winners aren't for being "experts"... I'm now confused
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
Or in the real world the "welfare reforms have driven people to suicide"
People commit suicide, they always have, people on benefits commit suicide, they always have.
Anyone who has ever being involved in dealing with people who as suicidal know it is never about one thing.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Yes, Donald Trump will show all the subtlety and nuance that I am famous for.
So far... Trump's next press conference is scheduled for Friday morning at Turnberry.
I'm not sure exactly when Trump Force One is arriving.
Biden is in Ireland this week. Trump is heading there after Scotland. Enda Kenny has said he would meet him. Cameron has "no plans" to meet Trump.
Cameron will look a real turnip when he is kissing Trump's presidential feet.
I was against the Iraq war because it seemed bonkers to pick and choose a nasty dictator. almost at random. Saddam was never an Islamist and the Baathist regime was an equal-opportunities persecutor. It always appeared a Bush obsession.
But I still retained a faint hope it wasn't just Blair toadying up to Bush. I sort of hoped he had confidential security information he couldn't divulge. At my age, I should have known better. It was all smoke and mirrors, just like Cameron.
There went my last thread of respect for politicians.
Mr. P, unsurprising. Faisal Islam was confused about thinking Warsi was on the Leave campaign as well. And he was confused when he tweeted about Cameron benefiting from the tax cut to the higher rate (as if he should've uniquely paid more tax than everyone else earning the same sum).
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Agreed. He seems to have had a strategy going back two decades - first to neutralise the Eurosceptic head-bangers in his own party, then to marginalise them, and finally to defeat them by anchoring the UK in Europe. It's certainly a high-stakes gamble to fight a referendum, but then nothing ever gets solved in politics by avoiding the difficult questions.
That does seem like destroying the village in order to save it.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
Or in the real world the "welfare reforms have driven people to suicide"
People commit suicide, they always have, people on benefits commit suicide, they always have.
Anyone who has ever being involved in dealing with people who as suicidal know it is never about one thing.
The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.
A mixed endorsement:
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
You may well be right, Mr Me, and on the statistics I am sure you are. However, it doesn't accord with what I see around me in everyday life. The people still stuck on benefits on the council estate, the unemployable underclass, the couple paying £1500 rent but not able to get a mortgage, the appalling education system that fails the majority of children, the A&E which cannot cope with the numbers. At the same time we have a growing number of people for whom, quite literally, money is no object and whose NAV always seems to increase.
Are the statistics reality or is what I see? Probably both.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Yes, Donald Trump will show all the subtlety and nuance that I am famous for.
So far... Trump's next press conference is scheduled for Friday morning at Turnberry.
I'm not sure exactly when Trump Force One is arriving.
Biden is in Ireland this week. Trump is heading there after Scotland. Enda Kenny has said he would meet him. Cameron has "no plans" to meet Trump.
Cameron will look a real turnip when he is kissing Trump's presidential feet.
Afternoon Malc.
Do you actually think Cameron will still be Prime Minister in November?
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Trump has already said he would personally vote for Brexit, his mother lived in Stornoway
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
The difference between the polls and the betting markets is quite staggering. They must have other information. I remember when Betfred paid out on the tories as largest party before the GE I was amazed, yet they knew.
The polls are levelish yet the odds with Corals are 2/9 and 3/1.
Its like a two horse race when both horses are fully exposed and have the same form yet the bookies massively favour one horse.
If the bookies are not privy to some other information then the 3/1 on Leave is the best value on Politcial or any other betting then there has ever been. Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?
The difference between the polls and the betting markets is quite staggering. They must have other information. I remember when Betfred paid out on the tories as largest party before the GE I was amazed, yet they knew.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
Or in the real world the "welfare reforms have driven people to suicide"
People commit suicide, they always have, people on benefits commit suicide, they always have.
Anyone who has ever being involved in dealing with people who as suicidal know it is never about one thing.
Take someone with a crippling medical condition that leaves them in pain every day. There is no cure, just hope that the cocktail of drugs they are on can dull the pain enough for them to function. Set aside their education and career and all the hopes they had of a future and leave them existing on a pittance.
Then have someone assess them who has no medical understanding of their condition and miraculously cure them. Their pittance is taken away leaving them destitute, worthless, finished. Thats when the suicides kick in. And not just suicides. The attempted suicides. The poor sods found dead with no food in their flat. The thousands who die of the terminal illness the DWP just cured them of, leaving them destitute in their final weeks.
The way that this government treats the sick is a national disgrace, and offence to our culture. BTW I have direct experience of the effect the DWP can have on the chronically sick, so please don't patronise my intelligence with platitudes.
Mr. Currystar, because it may be value but if the true odds are 50/50 then people would be risking all their wealth on something that's a coin toss. People should only bet what they can afford to lose.
The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.
A mixed endorsement:
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
How the hell do you know the voting patterns of the Spice Girls?
Mr. (Mrs? I do apologise forgetting) Pioneers, I agree. I think May's got no respect for civil liberties and doesn't even understand them. But she's still amongst the frontrunners for the job, and personal dislike shouldn't get in the way of objective assessment.
The difference between the polls and the betting markets is quite staggering. They must have other information. I remember when Betfred paid out on the tories as largest party before the GE I was amazed, yet they knew.
The polls are levelish yet the odds with Corals are 2/9 and 3/1.
Its like a two horse race when both horses are fully exposed and have the same form yet the bookies massively favour one horse.
If the bookies are not privy to some other information then the 3/1 on Leave is the best value on Politcial or any other betting then there has ever been. Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?
I'm very short Remain on SpreadEx, where the implied Remain victory lead is 9%.
This seems completely wrong, and I've filled my boots. I would recommend other PBers do too.
I predict that Trump's endgame is to lose the Presidency and set up Trump news as a TV station for his base.
Why would he want to report the news rather than make it?
Well Trump's arrival tomorrow coinciding with the world wide Jo Cox tribute from Trafalgar Square should make for some interesting media headlines
It is being advertised on Facebook as a pro EU rally not Jo Cox so I can't see it being worldwide. Better Together also did a Trafalgar Square rally in 2014 with Dan Snow and Eddie Izzard, they may be back for this one
Electoral Commission We have published details of over £6.4 million in donations and loans to registered campaigners at the EU Ref:https://t.co/2T1nAu0hHP
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
You may well be right, Mr Me, and on the statistics I am sure you are. However, it doesn't accord with what I see around me in everyday life. The people still stuck on benefits on the council estate, the unemployable underclass, the couple paying £1500 rent but not able to get a mortgage, the appalling education system that fails the majority of children, the A&E which cannot cope with the numbers. At the same time we have a growing number of people for whom, quite literally, money is no object and whose NAV always seems to increase.
Are the statistics reality or is what I see? Probably both.
You will be surprised just how much has changed on those council estates. People stuck on benefits is a lot less. The unemployable underclass most certainly exists, but not doing anything about it is not an option for them. If you dont follow the rules and look for work the sanctions are real.
The education system is not appalling and it doesnt fail the majority. Thats hyperbole. There will be some god awful schools and some amazing schools.
I seriously recommend you do a search for employment figures for your district, you will see the most extraordinary changes over the last four years.
A&E is an odd one, i currently have a junior doctor staying with me, telling me that A&E was the busiest it had ever been a few months back. It's really hard to analyse why. He says some of his colleagues put it down to people demanding more, and coming to A&E for things they might have waited to see their GP for.
The NHS is an odd one, it is has been *entirely* free from austerity measures and has had money thrown at it like confetti for the thirty years, yet it always seems to be in perpetual crisis (a problem shared by western public health services around the world).
Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?
It could simply be weight of cash. Leave backers tend to be smaller individual bets - goodness knows who is on the remain side. What we know is that every big business out there supports remain. Some people have deep pockets.
Watched the BBC unveil their set for tonight's Wembley Arena debate. This may well turn out to be a real 'bear pit' and I would expect there is a every likelihood of a 'Miliband' moment from someone, like in the GE debate with him. I really admire everyone on both sides who are prepared to be examined in front of 6,000 voters 'live', half remain, half leave (if you believe that) and the additional many millions who will be tuning in. I read that Ruth Davidson is very anti Boris and has threatened to declare a divorce for the Scots Conservatives from the UK party if he ever becomes PM. It would be very dramatic if she did enter a public fight with him. I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.
Trump is a gobby politician who says things for effect. Yet some of his political opponents hate him. They would be happy to see him dead, and would dance on his grave. I just don't understand this viewpoint. Jezza is a loon but I wouldn't like to see him dead.
The real hatred seems to come from the extreme left and extreme right wing supporters. The young don't know any better, but there's no excuse for the older ones. Yet the haters are the ones who go on about how hatred is so bad.
Burnham and his t-shirt ... If I were eighteen, and if Ms World came to me wearing a Nazi insignia and asking for sexual favours, I wouldn't have turned turn her away because of her politics. I filed Burnham under C for cretin when he came out with that.
Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?
Attenborough? The Queen?
Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?
Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day
There will certainly be more tomorrow.
They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.
But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow
Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
Trump has already said he would personally vote for Brexit, his mother lived in Stornoway
Yes indeed. But from his own political point of view he's better off going after Obama and Hillary for telling other people what to think and how to vote.
But then he is Donald Trump, and one never knows what will come out when he opens his mouth!!
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
Heavy rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland would be good for LEAVE.
The forecast for Scotland is bright and sunny on Thursday.
Watched the BBC unveil their set for tonight's Wembley Arena debate. This may well turn out to be a real 'bear pit' and I would expect there is a every likelihood of a 'Miliband' moment from someone, like in the GE debate with him. I really admire everyone on both sides who are prepared to be examined in front of 6,000 voters 'live', half remain, half leave (if you believe that) and the additional many millions who will be tuning in. I read that Ruth Davidson is very anti Boris and has threatened to declare a divorce for the Scots Conservatives from the UK party if he ever becomes PM. It would be very dramatic if she did enter a public fight with him. I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.
I predict that Trump's endgame is to lose the Presidency and set up Trump news as a TV station for his base.
Why would he want to report the news rather than make it?
Well Trump's arrival tomorrow coinciding with the world wide Jo Cox tribute from Trafalgar Square should make for some interesting media headlines
It is being advertised on Facebook as a pro EU rally not Jo Cox so I can't see it being worldwide. Better Together also did a Trafalgar Square rally in 2014 with Dan Snow and Eddie Izzard, they may be back for this one
It is being simultaneously co-ordinated in Washington, New York, Nairobi, Brussels, and elsewhere with tributes Worldwide
Put simply, if he was all about tactics, why is he backing Remain?
Agreed. He seems to have had a strategy going back two decades - first to neutralise the Eurosceptic head-bangers in his own party, then to marginalise them, and finally to defeat them by anchoring the UK in Europe. It's certainly a high-stakes gamble to fight a referendum, but then nothing ever gets solved in politics by avoiding the difficult questions.
There would be an irony if Cameron's government career effectively began with one Sterling crash and ended with another.
If we get a narrow Remain win, as seems more likely than not at this point, then I think the average WWC Englishman will conclude that he has lost his country (or at least his ability to choose to any meaningful degree what his country is like). And, more importantly for politics, he will see clearly there is no party that gives a shit about him. The Tories have gone Europhile metrosexual establishment. Labour have been there for a while - but WWC man has only recently noticed (he's slower than his Scottish cousin). This referendum has exposed a split in the UK demos between haves and have nots and cultural identity that simply doesn't work along old party lines. The 2020 GE is going to be a fucking mess.
Watched the BBC unveil their set for tonight's Wembley Arena debate. This may well turn out to be a real 'bear pit' and I would expect there is a every likelihood of a 'Miliband' moment from someone, like in the GE debate with him. I really admire everyone on both sides who are prepared to be examined in front of 6,000 voters 'live', half remain, half leave (if you believe that) and the additional many millions who will be tuning in. I read that Ruth Davidson is very anti Boris and has threatened to declare a divorce for the Scots Conservatives from the UK party if he ever becomes PM. It would be very dramatic if she did enter a public fight with him. I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.
Hell yeah.......
How many people watch these things when there's football on the telly?
Buy Bordeaux En Primeur today. If we vote for Brexit, you've bought your wine at a 20% discount (i.e. sterling will depreciate against the Euro) compared to the prices in six months. If we vote Remain, at least you've bought some nice wine to drown your sorrows.
If we get a narrow Remain win, as seems more likely than not at this point, then I think the average WWC Englishman will conclude that he has lost his country (or at least his ability to choose to any meaningful degree what his country is like). And, more importantly for politics, he will see clearly there is no party that gives a shit about him. The Tories have gone Europhile metrosexual establishment. Labour have been there for a while - but WWC man has only recently noticed (he's slower than his Scottish cousin). This referendum has exposed a split in the UK demos between haves and have nots and cultural identity that simply doesn't work along old party lines. The 2020 GE is going to be a fucking mess.
If we get a narrow Remain win, as seems more likely than not at this point, then I think the average WWC Englishman will conclude that he has lost his country (or at least his ability to choose to any meaningful degree what his country is like). And, more importantly for politics, he will see clearly there is no party that gives a shit about him. The Tories have gone Europhile metrosexual establishment. Labour have been there for a while - but WWC man has only recently noticed (he's slower than his Scottish cousin). This referendum has exposed a split in the UK demos between haves and have nots and cultural identity that simply doesn't work along old party lines. The 2020 GE is going to be a fucking mess.
What happens if the WWC back Remain?
There are some Leavers on here that are a pastiche of 'It's Grim Up North'
Watched the BBC unveil their set for tonight's Wembley Arena debate. This may well turn out to be a real 'bear pit' and I would expect there is a every likelihood of a 'Miliband' moment from someone, like in the GE debate with him. I really admire everyone on both sides who are prepared to be examined in front of 6,000 voters 'live', half remain, half leave (if you believe that) and the additional many millions who will be tuning in. I read that Ruth Davidson is very anti Boris and has threatened to declare a divorce for the Scots Conservatives from the UK party if he ever becomes PM. It would be very dramatic if she did enter a public fight with him. I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.
I agree. And Saqid trying to bash Boris re London mayor stuff.
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
.
You may well be right, Mr Me, and on the statistics I am sure you are. However, it doesn't accord with what I see around me in everyday life. The people still stuck on benefits on the council estate, the unemployable underclass, the couple paying £1500 rent but not able to get a mortgage, the appalling education system that fails the majority of children, the A&E which cannot cope with the numbers. At the same time we have a growing number of people for whom, quite literally, money is no object and whose NAV always seems to increase.
Are the statistics reality or is what I see? Probably both.
Hurst , it is what you see that is real , the statistics are just to salve the establishment and give them an excuse to tell porkies. Full employment my erchie.
I predict that Trump's endgame is to lose the Presidency and set up Trump news as a TV station for his base.
Why would he want to report the news rather than make it?
Well Trump's arrival tomorrow coinciding with the world wide Jo Cox tribute from Trafalgar Square should make for some interesting media headlines
It is being advertised on Facebook as a pro EU rally not Jo Cox so I can't see it being worldwide. Better Together also did a Trafalgar Square rally in 2014 with Dan Snow and Eddie Izzard, they may be back for this one
It is being simultaneously co-ordinated in Washington, New York, Nairobi, Brussels, and elsewhere with tributes Worldwide
The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.
A mixed endorsement:
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
How the hell do you know the voting patterns of the Spice Girls?
Age certainly has a part to play - Leave has a solid 60+ block to count on - but your point is well taken. The Blair era killed voting among the lower social classes - I meet so many people now who say they're non-voters, and that's a killer for the Brexiteers. In days gone by you'd expect at least 70% turnout in England for such a knife-edge election - the fact that we're expecting 10% less than that is painful.
p.s. The weather forecast for Thursday seems to be quite good, here in the Midlands at least.
Heavy rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland would be good for LEAVE.
The forecast for Scotland is bright and sunny on Thursday.
They find it hard to forecast a few hours ahead most times , and a blanket it will be sunny in Scotland is a laugh as well.
Comments
"The levels of support for Remain and Leave varied over the course of fieldwork. There was a considerably higher level of support for remain in the first two weeks than in the last two weeks; indeed, in the third week more people backed Leave than did Remain"
p.14
http://natcen.ac.uk/media/1216024/natcen-eu-referendum-report-200616.pdf?_ga=1.895025.1604413472.1413931479
Maybe he's just too nice to be PM.
I found myself nodding at some of McDonnell's economic ideas the other week. I would never vote for the bloke because of some of his other views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Based in California have they arranged a postal vote?
http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/rest-power-corporate-spin-doctors-take-control-cox-image/
"After yesterday’s genuinely tear-jerking tributes in parliament, a media event has been organised tomorrow in Trafalgar Square in memory of Jo Cox. Corporate lobbyists Freuds are organising broadcast coverage and Alastair Campbell’s Portland are doing the press, after Bad Al spent the last three days making it about the referendum:
"An emotional pull on the heart-strings on the eve of the referendum…"
Why is it the men (and it is almost always men) with the biggest egos lack any self-awareness and are always totally oblivious of the negative impact they have?
(OK, answered my own question)
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
Labour participation in the market place has never been higher, the economy now is by international definition, in Full Employment, thats despite importing over 1.6 million eu migrants in the last ten years.
The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.
That George Osborne has actually geared the tax system resulting in a moderately greater burden on the highest earners.
Nothing is every all rosey, there will always be problems, but lets not pretend that life has and is getting better out there for the greater number of people.
We have an economic system that works for the many better than any ever has in the past.
On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/spice-girls-vote-thatcher-the-new-leader-of-their-band-1314278.html
I'm not sure exactly when Trump Force One is arriving.
Biden is in Ireland this week. Trump is heading there after Scotland. Enda Kenny has said he would meet him. Cameron has "no plans" to meet Trump.
"I can't think that he's acted as he has because he believes in what he's fighting for. "
Surely that's the only explanation.
The gap in comparative income between a US C1C2D worker and a UK one was unbelievably large 60 years ago; much, much closer now.
auto spell check fail!!
Anyone who has ever being involved in dealing with people who as suicidal know it is never about one thing.
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3651241/Authorities-Man-Vegas-rally-said-wanted-kill-Trump.html
I was against the Iraq war because it seemed bonkers to pick and choose a nasty dictator. almost at random. Saddam was never an Islamist and the Baathist regime was an equal-opportunities persecutor. It always appeared a Bush obsession.
But I still retained a faint hope it wasn't just Blair toadying up to Bush. I sort of hoped he had confidential security information he couldn't divulge. At my age, I should have known better. It was all smoke and mirrors, just like Cameron.
There went my last thread of respect for politicians.
Anyhow, the nonsense has already started...
https://twitter.com/MiriamBrett/status/745205866136244224
Are the statistics reality or is what I see? Probably both.
Do you actually think Cameron will still be Prime Minister in November?
Little did anyone know then that Sir John was actually a sex god...
It's always the quiet one's...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
POLL ALERT - Survation for @IGTV 1.30pm BST today 21/06 live on @IGTV with comments and analysis.
Its like a two horse race when both horses are fully exposed and have the same form yet the bookies massively favour one horse.
If the bookies are not privy to some other information then the 3/1 on Leave is the best value on Politcial or any other betting then there has ever been. Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?
Then have someone assess them who has no medical understanding of their condition and miraculously cure them. Their pittance is taken away leaving them destitute, worthless, finished. Thats when the suicides kick in. And not just suicides. The attempted suicides. The poor sods found dead with no food in their flat. The thousands who die of the terminal illness the DWP just cured them of, leaving them destitute in their final weeks.
The way that this government treats the sick is a national disgrace, and offence to our culture. BTW I have direct experience of the effect the DWP can have on the chronically sick, so please don't patronise my intelligence with platitudes.
Any details on All Saints?
This seems completely wrong, and I've filled my boots. I would recommend other PBers do too.
We have published details of over £6.4 million in donations and loans to registered campaigners at the EU Ref:https://t.co/2T1nAu0hHP
It could simply be weight of cash. Leave backers tend to be smaller individual bets - goodness knows who is on the remain side. What we know is that every big business out there supports remain. Some people have deep pockets.
The real hatred seems to come from the extreme left and extreme right wing supporters. The young don't know any better, but there's no excuse for the older ones. Yet the haters are the ones who go on about how hatred is so bad.
Burnham and his t-shirt ... If I were eighteen, and if Ms World came to me wearing a Nazi insignia and asking for sexual favours, I wouldn't have turned turn her away because of her politics. I filed Burnham under C for cretin when he came out with that.
But then he is Donald Trump, and one never knows what will come out when he opens his mouth!!
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Dear Mr Gamechanger. You have a career as a TV programme promo writer.
Buy Bordeaux En Primeur today. If we vote for Brexit, you've bought your wine at a 20% discount (i.e. sterling will depreciate against the Euro) compared to the prices in six months. If we vote Remain, at least you've bought some nice wine to drown your sorrows.
There are some Leavers on here that are a pastiche of 'It's Grim Up North'