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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    taffys said:

    ''I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.''

    Dear Mr Gamechanger. You have a career as a TV programme promo writer.

    Has it motivated you to get out your 'popcorn' and watch - BBC between 8.00 - 10.00pm. (thought I would add the times to help my programme promo writer reputation!!)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?

    Attenborough? The Queen?

    Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?

    Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day

    There will certainly be more tomorrow.
    They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.

    But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
    Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow

    Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
    If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
    Trump has already said he would personally vote for Brexit, his mother lived in Stornoway
    Yes indeed. But from his own political point of view he's better off going after Obama and Hillary for telling other people what to think and how to vote.

    But then he is Donald Trump, and one never knows what will come out when he opens his mouth!!
    Yes he will go after Hillary and Obama for their Brexit threats
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    Watched the BBC unveil their set for tonight's Wembley Arena debate. This may well turn out to be a real 'bear pit' and I would expect there is a every likelihood of a 'Miliband' moment from someone, like in the GE debate with him. I really admire everyone on both sides who are prepared to be examined in front of 6,000 voters 'live', half remain, half leave (if you believe that) and the additional many millions who will be tuning in. I read that Ruth Davidson is very anti Boris and has threatened to declare a divorce for the Scots Conservatives from the UK party if he ever becomes PM. It would be very dramatic if she did enter a public fight with him. I believe that tonight's debate will eclipse all before as it is the last one and only 36 hours from the polls opening. Fascinating.

    Fair and the BBC is an oxymoron.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Lord and Lady Beckham have come out for REMAIN!

    It's over... :open_mouth:

    It's not over till the anorexic lady sings!
  • GIN1138 said:

    At this point, is there anybody even with the slightest modicum of fame that hadn't gone public to tell the world what they think about #EURef? ;)

    PB will be endorsing either Remain or Leave on Wednesday night.
    PB's currently undecided?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this point, is there anybody even with the slightest modicum of fame that hadn't gone public to tell the world what they think about #EURef? ;)

    PB will be endorsing either Remain or Leave on Wednesday night.
    I thought from the ad's PB came out for LEAVE weeks ago! :smiley:
    The Sunil on Sunday faction of PB has already endorsed LEAVE weeks ago!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I predict that Trump's endgame is to lose the Presidency and set up Trump news as a TV station for his base.

    Why would he want to report the news rather than make it?
    Well Trump's arrival tomorrow coinciding with the world wide Jo Cox tribute from Trafalgar Square should make for some interesting media headlines
    It is being advertised on Facebook as a pro EU rally not Jo Cox so I can't see it being worldwide. Better Together also did a Trafalgar Square rally in 2014 with Dan Snow and Eddie Izzard, they may be back for this one
    It is being simultaneously co-ordinated in Washington, New York, Nairobi, Brussels, and elsewhere with tributes Worldwide
    It will be a pro EU rally with Jo Cox tacked on
    I think you will find that it has been organised by Jo's family as a World wide celebration of her life and her causes, one of which was to remain in the EU
  • Patrick said:

    If we get a narrow Remain win, as seems more likely than not at this point, then I think the average WWC Englishman will conclude that he has lost his country (or at least his ability to choose to any meaningful degree what his country is like). And, more importantly for politics, he will see clearly there is no party that gives a shit about him. The Tories have gone Europhile metrosexual establishment. Labour have been there for a while - but WWC man has only recently noticed (he's slower than his Scottish cousin). This referendum has exposed a split in the UK demos between haves and have nots and cultural identity that simply doesn't work along old party lines. The 2020 GE is going to be a fucking mess.

    What happens if the WWC back Remain?

    There are some Leavers on here that are a pastiche of 'It's Grim Up North'
    Good question! Less likely than Trump pitching up in drag mind you. If the English WWC have collectively voted for Remain then my ghast will be beyond flabbered. It means the result will 75/25. We'll be in the Euro by Tuesday and RAF roundels will be blue circles with a ring of gold stars.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451

    ONLY 48 HOURS TO SAVE DAVE!

    Why would anyone on either side want to Save Dave? Next thing you know you'll be asking us to save Osborne and then I'd have to call the police...
    Well there's Scotty P... And TSE... And... ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411

    ONLY 48 HOURS TO SAVE DAVE!

    Why would anyone on either side want to Save Dave? Next thing you know you'll be asking us to save Osborne and then I'd have to call the police...
    It was a joke, you humourless remainer!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    At this point, is there anybody even with the slightest modicum of fame that hadn't gone public to tell the world what they think about #EURef? ;)

    PB will be endorsing either Remain or Leave on Wednesday night.
    I thought from the ad's PB came out for LEAVE weeks ago! :smiley:
    The Sunil on Sunday faction of PB has already endorsed LEAVE weeks ago!
    BeLeave! :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429

    GIN1138 said:

    At this point, is there anybody even with the slightest modicum of fame that hadn't gone public to tell the world what they think about #EURef? ;)

    PB will be endorsing either Remain or Leave on Wednesday night.
    PB's currently undecided?
    It is, Robert's in charge of the PB server, it is up to him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.

    A mixed endorsement:

    On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/spice-girls-vote-thatcher-the-new-leader-of-their-band-1314278.html
    Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
    How the hell do you know the voting patterns of the Spice Girls?

    Any details on All Saints? :)
    All Saints? That's the DLR station just to the north of Poplar :)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The mystery of ORB:

    They found a sample where 25-34 year olds were more likely to turnout than 65+.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I think you will find that it has been organised by Jo's family as a World wide celebration of her life and her causes, one of which was to remain in the EU.''

    I tried to find in her biography which of those causes involved the good people of Batley and Spen. The people who elected her.

    I have to admit, I struggled.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.

    A mixed endorsement:

    On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/spice-girls-vote-thatcher-the-new-leader-of-their-band-1314278.html
    Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
    How the hell do you know the voting patterns of the Spice Girls?

    Any details on All Saints? :)
    Key swing voters
    Peter Gabriel must be Remain:

    "I am the voice of Britain, before the Daily Express. My name is Britannia."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797

    notme said:

    notme said:

    The welfare reforms brought in at the end of the Labour government and taken up by the coalition and the current Conservatives have been life transforming people out of the misery of the benefits trap.

    Or in the real world the "welfare reforms have driven people to suicide"

    People commit suicide, they always have, people on benefits commit suicide, they always have.

    Anyone who has ever being involved in dealing with people who as suicidal know it is never about one thing.
    Take someone with a crippling medical condition that leaves them in pain every day. There is no cure, just hope that the cocktail of drugs they are on can dull the pain enough for them to function. Set aside their education and career and all the hopes they had of a future and leave them existing on a pittance.

    Then have someone assess them who has no medical understanding of their condition and miraculously cure them. Their pittance is taken away leaving them destitute, worthless, finished. Thats when the suicides kick in. And not just suicides. The attempted suicides. The poor sods found dead with no food in their flat. The thousands who die of the terminal illness the DWP just cured them of, leaving them destitute in their final weeks.

    The way that this government treats the sick is a national disgrace, and offence to our culture. BTW I have direct experience of the effect the DWP can have on the chronically sick, so please don't patronise my intelligence with platitudes.
    You are aware that Labour brought all those tests in... The Tories merely continued them....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    notme said:


    You will be surprised just how much has changed on those council estates. People stuck on benefits is a lot less. The unemployable underclass most certainly exists, but not doing anything about it is not an option for them. If you dont follow the rules and look for work the sanctions are real.

    The education system is not appalling and it doesnt fail the majority. Thats hyperbole. There will be some god awful schools and some amazing schools.

    I seriously recommend you do a search for employment figures for your district, you will see the most extraordinary changes over the last four years.

    A&E is an odd one, i currently have a junior doctor staying with me, telling me that A&E was the busiest it had ever been a few months back. It's really hard to analyse why. He says some of his colleagues put it down to people demanding more, and coming to A&E for things they might have waited to see their GP for.

    The NHS is an odd one, it is has been *entirely* free from austerity measures and has had money thrown at it like confetti for the thirty years, yet it always seems to be in perpetual crisis (a problem shared by western public health services around the world).

    I know the council estate near me, and I know how much it has changed. There are now even more people on it not working, the amount of drug use has increased. Do you see what I mean between the difference between what the statistics say and what I see around me?

    As to the education system not failing the majority. We will have to just disagree because I can't be arsed to rehearse the facts figures on here again.

    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    taffys said:

    ''I think you will find that it has been organised by Jo's family as a World wide celebration of her life and her causes, one of which was to remain in the EU.''

    I tried to find in her biography which of those causes involved the good people of Batley and Spen. The people who elected her.

    I have to admit, I struggled.

    I think you would find that her constituents would comprehensively disagree
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
    How near? What was their religion and ethnicity?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    @TSE

    "Only When You Leave" by Spandau Ballet
    "Leaving Me Now" by Level 42
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    Phil Collins has to be the one:

    "If leaving me is easy,
    Coming back is harder..."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    Right, on that musical note, I'm out for the afternoon. Play nicely.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    And don't forget "Leave In Silence" by Depeche Mode
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Mr. Currystar, because it may be value but if the true odds are 50/50 then people would be risking all their wealth on something that's a coin toss. People should only bet what they can afford to lose.

    I agree, but when is an even money shot in a two horse race ever 3/1? Why bet on anything else for the entire year as you will never get value as good as this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429

    @TSE

    "Only When You Leave" by Spandau Ballet
    "Leaving Me Now" by Level 42

    I'm editing PB from 9.59pm on Thursday until Friday morning, I've got quite a few headlines already written.

    Nothing compares to EU

    Don't EU want me

    I will always love EU

    I got my mind set on EU

    Love to hate EU

    That sort of stuff
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: An SNP member who told me a few weeks ago he was voting Leave has changed his mind due to the campaign's "racism". https://t.co/GTK1WvdKXZ
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    New polls. Clinton ahead in Florida, tied in Ohio...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
    How near? What was their religion and ethnicity?
    If you go far enough back the origins are French.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,152
    Patrick said:

    Do we have any idea who the 'marginal' voters are in the referendum? Which group would make the most difference if they go from DK to one side or the other? Is it Labour C2D voters? To whom should the final scares be mongered?

    Love it!

    (Afternoon, everybody)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    edited June 2016

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    Forget that, Nadine Dorries v J.K. Rowling is about to kick off

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/745226673172385792
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    If we get a narrow Remain win, as seems more likely than not at this point, then I think the average WWC Englishman will conclude that he has lost his country (or at least his ability to choose to any meaningful degree what his country is like). And, more importantly for politics, he will see clearly there is no party that gives a shit about him. The Tories have gone Europhile metrosexual establishment. Labour have been there for a while - but WWC man has only recently noticed (he's slower than his Scottish cousin). This referendum has exposed a split in the UK demos between haves and have nots and cultural identity that simply doesn't work along old party lines. The 2020 GE is going to be a fucking mess.

    What happens if the WWC back Remain?

    There are some Leavers on here that are a pastiche of 'It's Grim Up North'
    Good question! Less likely than Trump pitching up in drag mind you. If the English WWC have collectively voted for Remain then my ghast will be beyond flabbered. It means the result will 75/25. We'll be in the Euro by Tuesday and RAF roundels will be blue circles with a ring of gold stars.
    Many of those you call WWC are not white and many of them do not work either . It is quite likely that of those who do have jobs threatened by Brexit a majority will back Remain
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I think you would find that her constituents would comprehensively disagree

    How do you know that, Mystic Meg? Most of those constituents voted against her (as with many MPs).

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Sandpit said:

    Thinking more generally about endorsements, who, if anyone could swing voters one way or the other?

    Attenborough? The Queen?

    Other than that it would have to be high profile politician defections. If Theresa May went for Leave at the last minute for example?

    Remain have kept a few endorsements in their back pocket for the final 48 hours to build momentum towards polling day

    There will certainly be more tomorrow.
    They will have four days worth of Grid endorsements rolled back too, as a result of the Jo Cox murder. They were always going to play rough in the last 48 hours.

    But they wouldn't have been expecting any Leave poll leads in the last few days. Heh!! All to play for still, my friend.
    Remain have nothing planned for their grid tomorrow

    Don't forget Trump is coming tomorrow, and will probably endorse Leave, and Remain won't want to overshadow that.
    If Turmp wants to make a big impression, he'll make a neutral speech saying that it's for the British people to decide, not for Obama, Hillary, Legarde, Tusk etc. to tell the British how to vote with scaremongering and forecasts of doom.
    But Trump doesn't actually genuinely care one way or the other how we vote. Trump can't help but do his best to make news. A neutral speech is boring for the media, an overtly pro-brexit one will splash him on front pages here and probably in the states too.

    Plus he clearly doesn't like Cameron and probably will relish the chance to attack him. I notice Cameron referred to 'trump' style politics the other day - no doubt trying to provoke Trump into an outburst.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    Forget that, Nadine Dorries v J.K. Rowling is about to kick off

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/745226673172385792
    Rowling is such a great performer in the Twitter-troll wars.

    This has to rank as one of the best "clapbacks" ever:

    J.K. RowlingVerified account ‏@jk_rowling Jan 28
    .@NatalieMcGarry You don't appear to understand how Twitter or defamation works. I'm going to help you out with the latter.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
    How near? What was their religion and ethnicity?
    If you go far enough back the origins are French.
    Wild guess.

    Blundell?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
    How near? What was their religion and ethnicity?
    If you go far enough back the origins are French.
    Wild guess.

    Blundell?
    Yep !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Leave coming in a bit. Good poll for them from Survation?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Many of those you call WWC are not white and many of them do not work either . It is quite likely that of those who do have jobs threatened by Brexit a majority will back Remain''

    Some leavers have their prejudices, you remainers have yours, as Brendan O'Neill pointed out yesterday.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RodCrosby said:

    New polls. Clinton ahead in Florida, tied in Ohio...

    If Hillary wins FL it's all over.

    She's up by 8pts – 47/39
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587



    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.

    Anecdote: sitting peacefully translating and posting on PB, I suddenly got a stabbing pain in my knee, which has recurred whenever I get up or go up or down stairs. It's got a bit better after 2 days but I rang for a GP appointment as it's not really going away. I was quoted an appointment time of two weeks, which is way more than any previous experience. On the other hand, I was offered a phone chat with a GP in half an hour, which I had and was a perfectly good substitute (probably minor inflammation, apply Volterol and see what happens in a few days).

    So I'll cautiously buy into the idea that waiting times are getting worse, but also think that phone consultations are in principle a good evasive option for simple cases. In this case I don't think that actually attending would have made any difference.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451

    Right, on that musical note, I'm out for the afternoon. Play nicely.

    Don't we always? :innocent_face:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    edited June 2016

    Leave coming in a bit. Good poll for them from Survation?

    Well we will find out whether random person on twitter #23231 is worth following.

    Ali ‏@Alichaudhary_ 2h2 hours ago
    @MSmithsonPB Survation will show a 4% lead today for remain.. Heard it from a very credible source.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pew Research
    As Brexit vote nears, deep ideological rifts in UK on EU's division of power https://t.co/C4dvSpxhGp https://t.co/Lha9zohm3f
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Meanwhile over on tw@tter, Left foot forward is advocating we pay attention to billionaire plutocrat George Soros.

    I suppose you would call that the 'new politics'
  • On topic, if you are looking for a swing area, I would suggest somewhere in Berkshire or Oxfordshire. My own area Windsor and Maidenhead was seen as being a swing area and Wokingham and West Berkshire might well be similar.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Shadsy live on Sky now
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    Meanwhile over on tw@tter, Left foot forward is advocating we pay attention to billionaire plutocrat George Soros.

    I suppose you would call that the 'new politics'

    There are some incredibly strange bedfellows in this campaign.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
    Don't go there! I spent several days knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for her in 2010, only for her to quit a couple of years later and hand the marginal seat back to Labour. To say I'm not a fan would be something of an understatement!
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Jobabob said:

    Like the statement from Beckham. I hadn't heard about that. Nice words. #Remain

    Especially because they are so obviously his own words.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    It was reported a few weeks ago Trump was arriving tomorrow, by Trump no less

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738575853261574144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Yes, I know that, but there was talk a week or so ago that the plans had changed. Perhaps not.

    Anyhow, looks like there may be a shouting match across the Irish Sea, if nothing else.
    http://www.irishcentral.com/roots/ancestry/Joe-Biden-on-the-personal-nature-of-his-visit-to-his-ancestral-home.html
    Seems Biden's ancestors come from the same places that my do, one of them precisely...
    My ancestors may well be from (near) where you are presently. Can you guess my surname ?
    How near? What was their religion and ethnicity?
    If you go far enough back the origins are French.
    Wild guess.

    Blundell?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CN-6K1U1dg
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411

    @TSE

    "Only When You Leave" by Spandau Ballet
    "Leaving Me Now" by Level 42

    I'm editing PB from 9.59pm on Thursday until Friday morning, I've got quite a few headlines already written.

    Nothing compares to EU

    Don't EU want me

    I will always love EU

    I got my mind set on EU

    Love to hate EU

    That sort of stuff
    EU keep me hanging on!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Sandpit said:

    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
    Don't go there! I spent several days knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for her in 2010, only for her to quit a couple of years later and hand the marginal seat back to Labour. To say I'm not a fan would be something of an understatement!
    Corby is going to be a quiz question for future political anoraks.

    Which constituency had four different MPs between 2010 and 2015?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    Forget that, Nadine Dorries v J.K. Rowling is about to kick off

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/745226673172385792
    Rowling is such a great performer in the Twitter-troll wars.

    This has to rank as one of the best "clapbacks" ever:

    J.K. RowlingVerified account ‏@jk_rowling Jan 28
    .@NatalieMcGarry You don't appear to understand how Twitter or defamation works. I'm going to help you out with the latter.
    McGarry said that Rowling was friendly with a misogynistic anonymous online troll and that made Rowling an enormous hypocrite.

    That was true. Rowling then used her unlimited financial power to brow beat someone telling the truth into compliance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    edited June 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
    Don't go there! I spent several days knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for her in 2010, only for her to quit a couple of years later and hand the marginal seat back to Labour. To say I'm not a fan would be something of an understatement!
    Her husband is a multimillionaire and she lives in Manhattan, given the choice between that lifestyle and tweeting from her New York Penthouse and being MP for Corby and working all hours she chose the former
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I suggest they stay in France if the UK is so awful.

    Freedom of movement is for EU people only, they should be reminded of that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    The Rowling v Dorries twitter debate is so much fun.

    Dorries going all four Yorkshiremen...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,812
    currystar said:

    Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?

    I have £500@5/2 and £250@4/2 on LEAVE. It took me 3 months to raise that money: I don't actually like betting and getting that done hurt. Much as people like to fantasise about putting it all on black, it is b****y difficult to do that, both emotionally and in converting fixed to liquid assets. So that's the best I can do, sorry
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    taffys said:

    Meanwhile over on tw@tter, Left foot forward is advocating we pay attention to billionaire plutocrat George Soros.

    I suppose you would call that the 'new politics'

    https://twitter.com/EUVoteLeave23rd/status/744215321746243584
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    edited June 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Danny565 said:

    Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.

    I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
    Don't go there! I spent several days knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for her in 2010, only for her to quit a couple of years later and hand the marginal seat back to Labour. To say I'm not a fan would be something of an understatement!
    Corby is going to be a quiz question for future political anoraks.

    Which constituency had four different MPs between 2010 and 2015?
    Oi! I said exactly that the other week on here :tongue:
    Does anyone know of anywhere else that has had 4 different MPs since Jan 2010?
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    viewcode said:

    currystar said:

    Why aren't our learned colleagues on this site investing every penny they have for this once in a lifetime value bet?

    I have £500@5/2 and £250@4/2 on LEAVE. It took me 3 months to raise that money: I don't actually like betting and getting that done hurt. Much as people like to fantasise about putting it all on black, it is b****y difficult to do that, both emotionally and in converting fixed to liquid assets. So that's the best I can do, sorry
    I'm small fry! The most I can lose is £24. I've bet £60 in total.
  • @TSE

    "Only When You Leave" by Spandau Ballet
    "Leaving Me Now" by Level 42

    I'm editing PB from 9.59pm on Thursday until Friday morning, I've got quite a few headlines already written.

    Nothing compares to EU

    Don't EU want me

    I will always love EU

    I got my mind set on EU

    Love to hate EU

    That sort of stuff
    EU keep me hanging on!
    Babe, I'm gonna leave you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734

    On topic, if you are looking for a swing area, I would suggest somewhere in Berkshire or Oxfordshire. My own area Windsor and Maidenhead was seen as being a swing area and Wokingham and West Berkshire might well be similar.

    Tonbridge and Malling looks 50-50 on that local Kent poll mentioned earlier, south Tonbridge will vote Leave, North Tonbridge probably Remain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 45% (-)
    Leave: 44% (+2)
    (via Survation, phone / 20 Jun)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    Fenman said:

    Just one comment on Turnout. Postal ballot returns are running higher than GE levels by all accounts I hear. But don't automatically assume that this reflects the population as a whole. Maybe it does, or maybe it reflects the fact that for certain demographics this is a very very important issue, for others there's a shrug of the shoulders and back to football. This is fascinating because I can't remember a time we have a had 'old' people and lower social classes up against the young and the higher social classes. I would guess that postal ballots probably oversample the old.......

    Not so sure. As an agent I've always found older people more reluctant to take postals, thinking they are obliged to go to the polling station
    IME postal voters are typically a) elderly (mobility/health), b) ethnic minority (family wanting to vote together/concern about language issues at the polling station, or c) students (could be anywhere on polling day). Plus sprinklings of d) people with varied work/travel patterns and increasingly e) people 'persuaded' to sign up for perpetual postal votes by party canvassers.

    In terms of the EURef a) is being called for Leave, and probably b) and c) for Remain. d) and e) probably reflect the general population. But I suggest that all categories except d) probably contain far fewer 'floating voters' on the Referendum - so there should still be everything to play for...
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Absurd article by Owen Jones in the Guardian, in which he blames David Cameron for "(fuelling) anti-immigrant sentiment" (what a boring and lazy phrase) and for not being straight with the population that mass immigration will continue, because... Well he doesn't say why, but one must assume it's a force of nature, I suppose.

    Of course he is preparing Labour's revised presentation in the event of a Leave win.

    He shows absolutely - and I mean absolutely - no respect for how ordinary people who live in this country feel about a huge influx of foreigners. If their attitude is anything other than complete acceptance of their lot, and of the kind of changes to their lives that the employers want to impose (because what else is mass immigration?), then he believes they must have had dirty ideas put into their heads by the elite, the Tories or the far right. It's as if he views the majority of the population as having no right to have views on society and on social change, as nothing more than objects, than filth.

    This disgusting attitude towards the working class is what passes for "left wing" nowadays? Maybe he should eff off back to Oxford?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,812



    I'll agree with you about A&E and indeed the NHS generally. I am not sure it is too much of a mystery though. A rapidly increasing population, more elderly people, new treatments becoming available, GP services especially out of hours getting worse. I don't think it's exactly rocket science.

    You seem to think the Conservatives have been doing a good job, I am not sure they have and find myself attracted to alternatives. I'm not saying more than that.

    Anecdote: sitting peacefully translating and posting on PB, I suddenly got a stabbing pain in my knee, which has recurred whenever I get up or go up or down stairs. It's got a bit better after 2 days but I rang for a GP appointment as it's not really going away. I was quoted an appointment time of two weeks, which is way more than any previous experience. On the other hand, I was offered a phone chat with a GP in half an hour, which I had and was a perfectly good substitute (probably minor inflammation, apply Volterol and see what happens in a few days).

    So I'll cautiously buy into the idea that waiting times are getting worse, but also think that phone consultations are in principle a good evasive option for simple cases. In this case I don't think that actually attending would have made any difference.
    Get checked to see if you're diabetic. Undiagnosed diabetes can cause circulation problems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    All to play for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734

    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Spice Girls endorsed John Major in 1997 at the height of their fame.

    A mixed endorsement:

    On John Major: "As for Major," said Victoria, "he's a boring pillock. But compared with the rest, he's far better. We'd never vote Labour. The good thing about Major is that because he hasn't got any personality, he's not hiding behind some smooth facade. He can't rely on his looks, can he?"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/spice-girls-vote-thatcher-the-new-leader-of-their-band-1314278.html
    Sporty was Labour and probably Mel B too, Geri Hallowell became New Labour, posh is basically a Thatcherite, Beckham a New Labour Cameroon which is why he backs Remain
    How the hell do you know the voting patterns of the Spice Girls?

    Any details on All Saints? :)
    Key swing voters
    Peter Gabriel must be Remain:

    "I am the voice of Britain, before the Daily Express. My name is Britannia."
    Certainly
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA

    Jeez Louise
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Excluding DKs Remain 51 Leave 49
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    edited June 2016
    Survation:

    45-44 to remain

    51-49 excluding DK to remain
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    What's going on at Number 10? Podium outside
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    Mr Smithson was misled :open_mouth:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Fieldwork was conducted entirely yesterday
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    Close.... odds seem very off at the moment. Shame i'm moving house next week, otherwise i would go leave now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    taffys said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly https://t.co/cScSTjVtqA

    Jesu
    Here cometh a vow..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    A Republic Monarchy lives on a knife's edge!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3 mins3 minutes ago

    The podium is out in Downing Street - PM to make a significant statement shortly


    ?????
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    edited June 2016

    Excluding DKs Remain 51 Leave 49

    Wow, it's going to be a coin toss :open_mouth:
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    PlatoSaid said:

    What's going on at Number 10? Podium outside

    Here comes the vow??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Danny565 said:

    Survation

    Remain 45

    Leave 44

    Mr Smithson was misled :open_mouth:
    The postal anecdotes and general crap turnout of the young make me think it should be 11-10 as Prof Curtice suggests if not even Evens.

    Have you decided which way to vote ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    JamesP said:

    Survation:

    45-44 to remain

    51-49 excluding DK to remain

    I can see 51-49 Remain as the final result, in which case Scotland may well be crucial
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    ** Betting Post ** (remember those?)

    I have to agree with Smithson Jnr on the SpreadEx spread-bet market for the Remain percentage. Sporting Index have a similar market up, and both quote 54-55 for Remain. I agree that's a Sell. To put it in perspective, not a single one of the last 16 polls has Remain over 53%.

    I'm on!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    No, Survation had Leave 3 ahead last week.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    PlatoSaid said:

    What's going on at Number 10? Podium outside

    Cameron's tea lady going to come out for REMAIN? :smiley:
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited June 2016
    chestnut said:

    Can we safely assume that the Jo Cox incident isn't moving the polls?

    Quite
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,622
    PlatoSaid said:

    What's going on at Number 10? Podium outside

    Has the PM just seen the Survation poll?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Norm said:

    The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.

    That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
    Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
    IMO, 57% for Kent *as a whole* is fairly positive for Leave.
    No it really isn't. Not that I believe the poll is accurate.
    Is there any basis for suggesting the poll is/isn't accurate? Otherwise I share your assessment that this isn't really positive for leave - general consensus and voting data such as it is suggests that North Kent should be up there among the top handful of Leave-voting areas along with Lincolnshire, the Essex/London borderlands and the South Coast waiting rooms?
This discussion has been closed.