For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.
If the Crisis is a little more serious than all the issues that have summoned COBRA, such as Ash Dieback and horsemeat, then the most important thing that Number 10 can do is call a press conference with the Prime Minister. David Cameron doesn’t do that many press conferences at all, despite promising in Opposition that he would hold a monthly one, and so when he summons hacks to the roof of a hotel at short notice, you know that there is a Crisis that the Prime Minister is taking Very Seriously indeed...
So the Crisis was that the Prime Minister had been watching the news last night. And presumably, that he had realised that the debate was indeed not on good turf for Remain, and that the polls were moving in favour of Leave.
I could certainly believe Number 10 are worried because their private polling is showing the move back to Remain isn't strong enough to counter the Leave postal votes already in...
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
IMO, 57% for Kent *as a whole* is fairly positive for Leave.
No it really isn't. Not that I believe the poll is accurate.
Is there any basis for suggesting the poll is/isn't accurate? Otherwise I share your assessment that this isn't really positive for leave - general consensus and voting data such as it is suggests that North Kent should be up there among the top handful of Leave-voting areas along with Lincolnshire, the Essex/London borderlands and the South Coast waiting rooms?
The poll has Ashford voting Leave 53-27, Canterbury Remain 39-38, Chatham and Aylesford Leave 57-26, Dartford Leave 45-38, Dover Leave 56-32, Faversham and Mid Kent Leave 50-31, Folkestone and Hythe Leave 49-34, Gillingham and Rainham Leave 48-31, Gravesham Remain 41-33, Maidstone and the Weald Leave 41-34, N Thanet Leave 58-32, Rochester and Strood Leave 54-29, Sevenoaks Remain 54-43, Sittingbourne and Sheppey Leave 62-19, S Thanet Leave 47-32, Tonbridge and Malling Remain 50-38, Tunbridge Wells Remain 55-37 http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
VL should shut up, laugh it off, remind people how his popularity has fallen and suggest the PM is shaken - perhaps after his poor performance on Sunday night.
They should not make a big deal of it, because then it will keep getting replayed. They had better not fall into the reverse 350m trap now.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
Good shout - that's a possibility.
I'm still struggling to find anybody who's voting Remain round here?! Very strange.
Rowling is such a great performer in the Twitter-troll wars.
This has to rank as one of the best "clapbacks" ever:
J.K. RowlingVerified account @jk_rowling Jan 28 .@NatalieMcGarry You don't appear to understand how Twitter or defamation works. I'm going to help you out with the latter.
A rich bully is just another bully with more privilege.
Last time I placed a political bet was on the day of the election last year when i got Labour most seats at about 4.3 (from memory). Leave at 3/1 looks very tempting........
Louise Mensch ongoing twitter bombardment & re-tweeted over and over and over content suggests a budding role for her as a UKIP PR rep.
I do find it baffling that she chose to quit as an MP, when (judging by her Twitter feed) she's spent the following 4 years just as immersed in British politics as ever.
She's not big on Trump either but sheesh, she must churn out a 1,000 tweets or retweets a day and most are the same article and a response from her followers - she'll then say something 'trolling', get a response from an opponent and then take that comment to tweet to everyone over again.
Last night for example based on the polling demographics she claimed 'the older you get, the wiser you are and so therefore you vote leave'... that got a few 'responses' which she then retweeted as summarising everyone in the remain camp....
She needs a hobby, like knitting or mountain biking. She has got way too much time on her hands.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
Good shout - that's a possibility.
I'm still struggling to find anybody who's voting Remain round here?! Very strange.
TSE and OGH and Alistair Meeks and Tyson and Rottenborough for starters!
Allow me to expand a psychological factor which might be at play.
Certainly alot expect "swingback" to remain nearer the vote. But what if people who were due to swing back (On economic arguments perhaps) have taken a look at how the murder of Jo Cox is being seen to be used for "remain's" ends and have decided they should stay the course for their vote - so aren't prepared to swing back to remain.
No, this is Cameron reminding us why he came from nowhere to beat the favourite and win the Conservative Leadership, lasted eleven years and is now a second term PM as part of a Coalition and then with a majority. As with the Conservative party Conference back in 2007, he is at his best when his back is against the wall. For all the abuse being levelled at him on here, he delivered on referendums on our voting system, Scottish Independence and now our EU membership. And for all the complaints on all sides about the EU Ref campaign, if the turnout this Thursday is anything like a GE or the Indy Ref, then it has been great for public political engagement in the big UK decisions.
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
I think this is a result of Hilton's intervention... I imagine the mood in Downing Street this morning was apoplectic.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
I hope you're right. My gut feeling is that the last-minute swing could be 10% or more so it's all to play for.
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
As Minister of Justice.....
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
Good shout - that's a possibility.
I'm still struggling to find anybody who's voting Remain round here?! Very strange.
My dad lives in Caerphilly. He said they hadn't chatted much about it but he thought people were 50-50. He describes most of them there as right wing Labour - presumably more Denis Healey/John Smith than Tony Benn/Jeremy Corbyn.
So significant that 5Live covered about a minute of it....
"Please, older people, PLEASE vote to stay..."
"People of my generation" ??
Did I hear him say that? He's younger than me!
"People of my generation, and older" think of your children and grandchildren before you vote, think how much they will love to live in this bureaucratic European Utopia. Or something...
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
That would be hopelessly optimistic at this stage, surely?
Personally I'd put this down as "leave nothing to chance, and don't expose yourself to the risk of regretting how you didn't go down with all guns blazing".
(Controversial claim: I also think that Cameron is a better - more "authentically" emotive - actor than Blair but a worse liar.)
If the Crisis is a little more serious than all the issues that have summoned COBRA, such as Ash Dieback and horsemeat, then the most important thing that Number 10 can do is call a press conference with the Prime Minister. David Cameron doesn’t do that many press conferences at all, despite promising in Opposition that he would hold a monthly one, and so when he summons hacks to the roof of a hotel at short notice, you know that there is a Crisis that the Prime Minister is taking Very Seriously indeed...
So the Crisis was that the Prime Minister had been watching the news last night. And presumably, that he had realised that the debate was indeed not on good turf for Remain, and that the polls were moving in favour of Leave.
I read that article earlier and it always makes me smile - it's so true.
its funny. People on here who know better than me say the postals will not be opened until Thursday, but there does seem to be a meme on tw*tter leave has a big lead.
One poster says its possible to take a guess via where the postals are being cast. I don;t know.
Cameron hurriedly pulls together a "significant statement" and shats his pants in the street.
I know TSE thinks that because he's trying to get a big enough Remain win to cement his legacy. I see a desperate man staring down the barrel thinking "if I repeat all my previous statements with 'PLEASE' on the end I can still turn things around"
It's some time since we had a government really steered in any particular direction, except winning stuff. That's better than having an evil government, of course, but it's not very healthy.
Quite so, Nick. I think I am in a very small minority in that as I get older I am more attracted to what might be views (ditto Corbyn), but I could see myself voting Labour for the first time if they get themselves a decent leader with convictions.
Isnt some of that 'perception'? The left have been very good at presenting the notion of somekind of victorian Britain with the haves and the have nots, but evidence shows the opposite.
If I told you that on three of the four measures used to determine child poverty, child poverty has reduced since 2010, and massively so? What if i told you that homelessness is the fourth lowest of the last forty years and actually less than half it was in 2004. Or the Gin Coefficient, the international measure of inequality is at lowest (lower equates more equal) point since the early nineties and lower than any year under the labour government.
.
You may well be right, Mr Me, and on the statistics I am sure you are. However, it doesn't accord with what I see around me in everyday life. The people still stuck on benefits on the council estate, the unemployable underclass, the couple paying £1500 rent but not able to get a mortgage, the appalling education system that fails the majority of children, the A&E which cannot cope with the numbers. At the same time we have a growing number of people for whom, quite literally, money is no object and whose NAV always seems to increase.
Are the statistics reality or is what I see? Probably both.
Hurst , it is what you see that is real , the statistics are just to salve the establishment and give them an excuse to tell porkies. Full employment my erchie.
1) unemployment figures, employment figures and the claimant count are all counted according to the rules of the International Labour Organisation. 2) The accepted definition of Full Employment by the OECD is between 4% and 6.4%.
According to the ONS the UK unemployment rate is 5.1%
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
I think this is a result of Hilton's intervention... I imagine the mood in Downing Street this morning was apoplectic.
I doubt that. Hilton is at best an unknown, at worst a figure of fun. That's he's added Leaving the EU to his list of zany ideas will make most Leavers look again at Brussels.
Perhaps left field, but I'm trying to come up with a real reason for Cameron to expose himself such as he just did. I almost wonder if Remain are trying to get ahead of something that will break before Thursday.
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
As Minister of Justice.....
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
Yes, good call.
Process arguments never win votes.
They've got about two hours to kill the story. As you say, get as many senior Leavers as possible from all parties to flank Gove. He probably already has a positive Leave speech in his pocket, if not he only needs to call Dan Hannan, who has several!
Cameron hurriedly pulls together a "significant statement" and shats his pants in the street.
I know TSE thinks that because he's trying to get a big enough Remain win to cement his legacy. I see a desperate man staring down the barrel thinking "if I repeat all my previous statements with 'PLEASE' on the end I can still turn things around"
Leave are winning.
The thing is, for this kind of appeal from Cameron to work, people need to believe that Leave are winning. If a large number of people don't want to be the one left with the casting vote to take us out, the swing to Remain on the day could be dramatic.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
Good shout - that's a possibility.
I'm still struggling to find anybody who's voting Remain round here?! Very strange.
TSE and OGH and Alistair Meeks and Tyson and Rottenborough for starters!
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
I hope you're right. My gut feeling is that the last-minute swing could be 10% or more so it's all to play for.
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
for all the complaints on all sides about the EU Ref campaign, if the turnout this Thursday is anything like a GE or the Indy Ref, then it has been great for public political engagement in the big UK decisions.
I'd agree, if I hadn't heard so many people complaining (both in the media, and in my own circle of mostly-Remainiac friends) that the plebs shouldn't be making these kind of decisions. I can't help but agree with Frank Furedi:
The current debate confirms that elitist disdain for the demos is as alive in the 21st century as it was in ancient times. ‘If there are issues on which the populace at large should be trusted to vote, something as complicated and economically sophisticated as EU membership is definitely not one of them’, says the biologist and professional atheist Richard Dawkins. As far as he’s concerned, complicated issues are way beyond the intellectual capacities of ordinary people, and therefore allowing a vote on such matters is a violation of the natural order of things. Dawkins is communicating a patronising disdain for the apparently easily manipulated masses...
The logic of Dawkins’ and Wallström’s outlook is to limit democratic debate to parochial issues, like how much money should be spent on parks or waste disposal in local communities; apparently we should leave the big, complicated questions to the experts. Their preference for the authority of the expert over the view of the public builds on the anti-democratic tradition that evolved during lively debates in the agora of Ancient Greece. No sooner was the demos given a voice than there emerged critiques of democracy. Plato, for example, would have approved of the attitudes of Dawkins and Wallström.
EDIT: Wonder if Cameron was trying to help push the Calais migrant situation down the news agenda.
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
I think this is a result of Hilton's intervention... I imagine the mood in Downing Street this morning was apoplectic.
I doubt that. Hilton is at best an unknown, at worst a figure of fun. That's he's added Leaving the EU to his list of zany ideas will make most Leavers look again at Brussels.
Cameron would see it's a very personal betrayal. And what Gove has done. Cameron doesn't take well to people standing up to him (as we saw when he was compared to Neville Chamberlain on telly - He looked like he wanted to dive into the audience and punch the guy's light's out)
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
As Minister of Justice.....
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
Yes, good call.
Process arguments never win votes.
They've got about two hours to kill the story. As you say, get as many senior Leavers as possible from all parties to flank Gove. He probably already has a positive Leave speech in his pocket, if not he only needs to call Dan Hannan, who has several!
When does SandpitMortimer Public Relations open for business?
its funny. People on here who know better than me say the postals will not be opened until Thursday, but there does seem to be a meme on tw*tter leave has a big lead.
One poster says its possible to take a guess via where the postals are being cast. I don;t know.
The postals have been or are being opened already, but no-one should be looking at them. The postal voters are marked off as the votes come back and the list of those who voted (and didn't) is published, for anyone who wants it, after the election.
Perhaps left field, but I'm trying to come up with a real reason for Cameron to expose himself such as he just did. I almost wonder if Remain are trying to get ahead of something that will break before Thursday.
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
Thinking about it, was it maybe just a "dead cat" to knock Steve Hilton out of the headlines?
"Desperate Cameron begs country" is probably not as damaging a headline for Remain as "even Cameron knows you can't control immigration in the EU".
1. Cameron looked emotional. 2. His speech was very hard-hitting. 3. He spoke directly into the camera, staring hard, in a surprisingly emotive way. 4. He implored the older voters to vote Remain. 5. He put his heart and soul into it and made it clear he is 100% Remain.
And yet Ladbrokes make Leave a 24% chance?
Desperate? Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just leaving nothing to chance?
He knows he's won, he just wants a decent majority for Remain to settle it for a generation.
I hope you're right. My gut feeling is that the last-minute swing could be 10% or more so it's all to play for.
I'm hoping for a Juncker intervention.
Maybe this speech was made in order to placate Juncker and make him stay away.
Allow me to expand a psychological factor which might be at play.
Certainly alot expect "swingback" to remain nearer the vote. But what if people who were due to swing back (On economic arguments perhaps) have taken a look at how the murder of Jo Cox is being seen to be used for "remain's" ends and have decided they should stay the course for their vote - so aren't prepared to swing back to remain.
Migration still seems to be front and centre of this debate despite all that crap about Farage over the weekend.
Last week, with the punishment budget, mansion house speech, IMF report etc. should have nudged the narrative back onto economics. But then that ghastly murder happened and then Remain thought they could win by hamming up the one-love off the back of it.
If that hasn't happened, and the debate stays focussed on migration, small Remain leads continue, and the markets don't spook, then there isn't much time left to change the narrative..
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
Perhaps left field, but I'm trying to come up with a real reason for Cameron to expose himself such as he just did. I almost wonder if Remain are trying to get ahead of something that will break before Thursday.
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
Probably the idea that he might has been circulating in campaign circles for some time - which then gave him no choice, since he could never afford to choose not to and then lose narrowly
For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.
That's bonkers.
Great tip. Thanks.
Another tip (this one from the exiled Nigel4England):
"If you have a look on Sporting Index you will see a Brexit Regional 100 index, with the price to sell England at 71. It was 73 when I got on earlier but 71 is still a fantastic price."
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
As Minister of Justice.....
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
Yes, good call.
Process arguments never win votes.
They've got about two hours to kill the story. As you say, get as many senior Leavers as possible from all parties to flank Gove. He probably already has a positive Leave speech in his pocket, if not he only needs to call Dan Hannan, who has several!
But this is where the BBC corporate ego takes over. They will spend most of the rest of this afternoon bigging up their Wembley debate tonight.
The timing of the speech was the most bizarre thing about it. An hour earlier and it would have been one of the main pieces on the 1 o'clock news. Having it so early in the afternoon gives Leave plenty of time to respond with a similar speech ready for the 6 o'clock bulletins.
I'm guessing they were desperate to try and get Hilton off the news, but so far it doesn't seem to have worked, at least on the BBC website. The tragic story of the murdered girl is going to be the top story today anyway. Has the grid gone out the window?
I hope I'm wrong (and happy to be ridiculed if so proven) but my hunch now is that Leave will win and perhaps by 3-4%, and that my forebodings when canvassing during the locals will be realized.
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
There are few shy Leavers, Leave is by far the more vocal and passionate campaign, you could equally say there are shy Remainers in the pubs and working class areas. In any case undecideds would probably outweigh them and in the end they will likely back the status quo
Perhaps left field, but I'm trying to come up with a real reason for Cameron to expose himself such as he just did. I almost wonder if Remain are trying to get ahead of something that will break before Thursday.
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
Probably the idea that he might has been circulating in campaign circles for some time - which then gave him no choice, since he could never afford to choose not to and then lose narrowly
What I find odd is why today and not tomorrow when it would make more sense. ("As the campaign closes, I make a final, personal appeal to you all as you go to vote tomorrow" etc)
For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.
That's bonkers.
Great tip. Thanks.
Another tip (this one from the exiled Nigel4England):
"If you have a look on Sporting Index you will see a Brexit Regional 100 index, with the price to sell England at 71. It was 73 when I got on earlier but 71 is still a fantastic price."
Will any of the exiled 3 be ever let on PB again ?
I hope I'm wrong (and happy to be ridiculed if so proven) but my hunch now is that Leave will win and perhaps by 3-4%, and that my forebodings when canvassing during the locals will be realized.
Why is Remain so favoured. 78% on Betfair? That just sounds crazy.
Agreed. Leave at the current price seems to be a good buy. Two reasons comes to mind: the use of the betting market for propaganda purposes, and a widespread belief that there's always a swing to the "status quo" at the last minute.
The problem with the second reason is that the status quo versus change idea doesn't apply in this vote. Continuing high immigration and leaving the EU are both about change.
For anyone who wants to bet on Leave, can I recommend selling the SpreadEx Remain vote share. It's currently 44-45, i.e. a 9% Remain lead at the midpoint.
That's bonkers.
Great tip. Thanks.
Another tip (this one from the exiled Nigel4England):
"If you have a look on Sporting Index you will see a Brexit Regional 100 index, with the price to sell England at 71. It was 73 when I got on earlier but 71 is still a fantastic price."
The timing of the speech was the most bizarre thing about it. An hour earlier and it would have been one of the main pieces on the 1 o'clock news. Having it so early in the afternoon gives Leave plenty of time to respond with a similar speech ready for the 6 o'clock bulletins.
I'm guessing they were desperate to try and get Hilton off the news, but so far it doesn't seem to have worked, at least on the BBC website. The tragic story of the murdered girl is going to be the top story today anyway. Has the grid gone out the window?
The speech encouraged Sky to directly compare it to Hilton's intv. They seem to think Leave has pulled the rope their way. Cameron on breakfast telly doesn't look very convincing when rebutting him.
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
There are few shy Leavers, Leave is by far the more vocal and passionate campaign, you could equally say there are shy Remainers in the pubs and working class areas. In any case undecideds would probably outweigh them and in the end they will likely back the status quo
There must be huge numbers of shy remainers. Leavers are like vegans, it isnt possible to have more than a five minute conversation without them telling you.
I hope I'm wrong (and happy to be ridiculed if so proven) but my hunch now is that Leave will win and perhaps by 3-4%, and that my forebodings when canvassing during the locals will be realized.
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
There are few shy Leavers, Leave is by far the more vocal and passionate campaign, you could equally say there are shy Remainers in the pubs and working class areas. In any case undecideds would probably outweigh them and in the end they will likely back the status quo
Allow me to expand a psychological factor which might be at play.
Certainly alot expect "swingback" to remain nearer the vote. But what if people who were due to swing back (On economic arguments perhaps) have taken a look at how the murder of Jo Cox is being seen to be used for "remain's" ends and have decided they should stay the course for their vote - so aren't prepared to swing back to remain.
Migration still seems to be front and centre of this debate despite all that crap about Farage over the weekend.
Last week, with the punishment budget, mansion house speech, IMF report etc. should have nudged the narrative back onto economics. But then that ghastly murder happened and then Remain thought they could win by hamming up the one-love off the back of it.
If that hasn't happened, and the debate stays focussed on migration, small Remain leads continue, and the markets don't spook, then there isn't much time left to change the narrative..
Farage bringing up the over subscription of school places with his new poster has added another *real world* dimension.
Good to see our democracy is alive and well. That was a clear breach of purdah by the PM.
Really? Care to post a link to the rule which you think was broken?
If his speech was prepared by a civil servant, or the press conference organised by a civil servant, yes. But otherwise no.
I have to say I would have thought that after all these years Cameron and his colleagues in the Remain camp are perfectly capable of writing a 5 minute speech without having to rely on civil servants.
Allow me to expand a psychological factor which might be at play.
Certainly alot expect "swingback" to remain nearer the vote. But what if people who were due to swing back (On economic arguments perhaps) have taken a look at how the murder of Jo Cox is being seen to be used for "remain's" ends and have decided they should stay the course for their vote - so aren't prepared to swing back to remain.
Pulps comrade, I don't think psychology is your thing. I cannot imagine you as Pulps Freud
Senior Vote Leave sources unhappy about David Cameron appearing outside No.10 during purdah - "it breaks all the rules"
Gove needs to get out and do the same. This afternoon, before the news bulletins. Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
As Minister of Justice.....
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
Yes, good call.
Process arguments never win votes.
They've got about two hours to kill the story. As you say, get as many senior Leavers as possible from all parties to flank Gove. He probably already has a positive Leave speech in his pocket, if not he only needs to call Dan Hannan, who has several!
When does SandpitMortimer Public Relations open for business?
Perhaps left field, but I'm trying to come up with a real reason for Cameron to expose himself such as he just did. I almost wonder if Remain are trying to get ahead of something that will break before Thursday.
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
Depends on the story, but on Wednesday at the latest.
The Ipsos MORI poll will come out on Thursday in the Evening Standard, but I'm not sure that London is a big battlefield in this vote.
Certainly, if there's been manipulation of the betting markets, then what's sauce for the goose. But the proportion of people who pay attention to betting prices is small.
A big Leave story could win it, in the time that's left.
I've said throughout that almost all surprises would help LEAVE. It was hard to think of a surprise that might help REMAIN. In the end, one did occur - the murder of Jo Cox. But the effect of that horrible event is going into the dimness of the past now.
Both YouGov and Survation are reporting swings to LEAVE in the past four days.
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
There are few shy Leavers, Leave is by far the more vocal and passionate campaign, you could equally say there are shy Remainers in the pubs and working class areas. In any case undecideds would probably outweigh them and in the end they will likely back the status quo
Met one in Cambridge on Saturday. CAMBRIDGE!
One in a city the size of Cambridge and that does not mean they are shy to pollsters
Both YouGov (online) and Survation (telephone) are reporting small swings to LEAVE in the past four days: swings of 1.5% and 1% respectively.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
Enough to still put Remain just in front with Survation and ORB, just behind with yougov and the economic concerns also added to the swing at the end of last week
Shy Leave has to be a factor. I had a hushed conversation in the kitchen at work with another Leaver - most people in the office aren't just remain but think Leave is for morons. After the Jo Cox slaying its even less popular in some places with some people to confess to supporting Leave.
There are few shy Leavers, Leave is by far the more vocal and passionate campaign, you could equally say there are shy Remainers in the pubs and working class areas. In any case undecideds would probably outweigh them and in the end they will likely back the status quo
There must be huge numbers of shy remainers. Leavers are like vegans, it isnt possible to have more than a five minute conversation without them telling you.
Comments
Isnt that more or less SNPs argument for a second referendum if the UK as whole votes to leave?
Maybe he wants to be clear in his mind, absolutely clear, that he did everything he could.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/
So 12 Kent seats voting Leave, 5 Remain
They should not make a big deal of it, because then it will keep getting replayed. They had better not fall into the reverse 350m trap now.
I'm still struggling to find anybody who's voting Remain round here?! Very strange.
Did I hear him say that? He's younger than me!
Certainly alot expect "swingback" to remain nearer the vote. But what if people who were due to swing back (On economic arguments perhaps) have taken a look at how the murder of Jo Cox is being seen to be used for "remain's" ends and have decided they should stay the course for their vote - so aren't prepared to swing back to remain.
Leave need to quickly make their point rather than arguing about the process.
Either way he can invest personal political capital without risk. Still odd though
With all other Leave ministers behind him. Reference could be made to future PMs, rather than past.
Yes, good call.
Process arguments never win votes.
Personally I'd put this down as "leave nothing to chance, and don't expose yourself to the risk of regretting how you didn't go down with all guns blazing".
(Controversial claim: I also think that Cameron is a better - more "authentically" emotive - actor than Blair but a worse liar.)
its funny. People on here who know better than me say the postals will not be opened until Thursday, but there does seem to be a meme on tw*tter leave has a big lead.
One poster says its possible to take a guess via where the postals are being cast. I don;t know.
I know TSE thinks that because he's trying to get a big enough Remain win to cement his legacy. I see a desperate man staring down the barrel thinking "if I repeat all my previous statements with 'PLEASE' on the end I can still turn things around"
Leave are winning.
No content, just pleading. It's smacks of desperation and says in capital letters "I'm losing".
Whatever the actual internal polling, it's an awful last ditch visual that sends all the wrong messages.
Was the swing to REMAIN in the aftermath of Jo Cox's murder just a blip?
2) The accepted definition of Full Employment by the OECD is between 4% and 6.4%.
According to the ONS the UK unemployment rate is 5.1%
If you were a journalist and had a wonderful story that would swing the vote to Leave by 5%, when would you publish it?
The current debate confirms that elitist disdain for the demos is as alive in the 21st century as it was in ancient times. ‘If there are issues on which the populace at large should be trusted to vote, something as complicated and economically sophisticated as EU membership is definitely not one of them’, says the biologist and professional atheist Richard Dawkins. As far as he’s concerned, complicated issues are way beyond the intellectual capacities of ordinary people, and therefore allowing a vote on such matters is a violation of the natural order of things. Dawkins is communicating a patronising disdain for the apparently easily manipulated masses...
The logic of Dawkins’ and Wallström’s outlook is to limit democratic debate to parochial issues, like how much money should be spent on parks or waste disposal in local communities; apparently we should leave the big, complicated questions to the experts. Their preference for the authority of the expert over the view of the public builds on the anti-democratic tradition that evolved during lively debates in the agora of Ancient Greece. No sooner was the demos given a voice than there emerged critiques of democracy. Plato, for example, would have approved of the attitudes of Dawkins and Wallström.
EDIT: Wonder if Cameron was trying to help push the Calais migrant situation down the news agenda.
;-)
"Desperate Cameron begs country" is probably not as damaging a headline for Remain as "even Cameron knows you can't control immigration in the EU".
UKIP have been active in Caerphilly and Merthyr and the valleys in between. I haven't seen Labour - they are as invisible and complacent as ever.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/camerons-big-speech-bombs/
Last week, with the punishment budget, mansion house speech, IMF report etc. should have nudged the narrative back onto economics. But then that ghastly murder happened and then Remain thought they could win by hamming up the one-love off the back of it.
If that hasn't happened, and the debate stays focussed on migration, small Remain leads continue, and the markets don't spook, then there isn't much time left to change the narrative..
Unless it is in the context of Osborne Quits
"If you have a look on Sporting Index you will see a Brexit Regional 100 index, with the price to sell England at 71. It was 73 when I got on earlier but 71 is still a fantastic price."
It's fairly obvious in the aftermath of Thursday that some people may be reluctant to say Leave to 'phone pollsters.
I'm guessing they were desperate to try and get Hilton off the news, but so far it doesn't seem to have worked, at least on the BBC website. The tragic story of the murdered girl is going to be the top story today anyway. Has the grid gone out the window?
The problem with the second reason is that the status quo versus change idea doesn't apply in this vote. Continuing high immigration and leaving the EU are both about change.
Wales is on 73, too.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
There must be huge numbers of shy remainers. Leavers are like vegans, it isnt possible to have more than a five minute conversation without them telling you.
The Ipsos MORI poll will come out on Thursday in the Evening Standard, but I'm not sure that London is a big battlefield in this vote.
Certainly, if there's been manipulation of the betting markets, then what's sauce for the goose. But the proportion of people who pay attention to betting prices is small.
A big Leave story could win it, in the time that's left.
I've said throughout that almost all surprises would help LEAVE. It was hard to think of a surprise that might help REMAIN. In the end, one did occur - the murder of Jo Cox. But the effect of that horrible event is going into the dimness of the past now.
Both YouGov and Survation are reporting swings to LEAVE in the past four days.