@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
I'd bet my house on it there would be no emergency budget delivered by Osborne post-Brexit.
Consider the scenario*:
1. Brexit happens 2. Osborne delivers a swift emergency budget full of cuts and tax rises 3. It gets voted down by a hefty majority of Lab (anti cuts) and Cons (anti tax rises) 4. A vote of no confidence in the government ensues 5. The government lose that vote (they only have a majority of 12. post Brexit, that won't mean anything) 6. Cameron and Osborne are replaced
Whatever you think of Osborne, he is not stupid. He would not commit political suicide.
*And it's all a moot point anyway because I think he would resign in the event of Brexit.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
Gove spoke approvingly of May on Sky earlier - it was just a sentence or two, but it stood out.
Osborne is history as far as I am concerned, and even as a remainer I would like to see Gove as Chancellor
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
Where's Cowell been in all this. Didn't the Tories manage to enlist him once before?
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
I don't think the sample size can tell us anything reliable about voting by constituency. Kent voting 57/43 Leave is certainly plausible, though.
Yes the overall figure for Kent was 57/43 based on a small sample of 793. Agreed re constituencies although these figures do correlate quite well with info on the ground.
Yes, I'd expect the stockbroker belt to be pretty close to 50/50, with Leave enjoying big leads in the Thames Estuary, and North coast heading down to Dover.
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
Spot on. That's exactly what will happen tomorrow.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Quite.
Incidentally, I've always noticed a strong correlation between champagne socialists and those most concerned about their current 'house price'.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
"There are now more than 90,500 voters on the electoral register in East Hampshire, 3,000 more than the 2015 General Election figure. The number of people requesting postal and proxy votes has also increased significantly. The council has received 17,159 postal vote applications compared to 14,456 in 2015, and 1,199 proxy vote requests compared to the 2015 figure of 508."
That's very useful information, especially given the voter re-registration that's happened since the GE. Turnout 70-75% is 3.6 on Betfair, 75-80% is 6.4.
I have been very tempted by this 10 point band. But have decided to leave alone as I just don't know.
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
The YouGov polling had sportsmen, luvvies, clergy, politicians and journalists down as not worth paying much attention to. This applied to both Remain and Leave.
Mrs Beckham is all over VoteLeave rebuttal posts with the tagline "Should've listened to the missus"
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
The mortgage is worth about 10% of its current value, but I have no plans to move or remortgage anyway.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
Gove spoke approvingly of May on Sky earlier - it was just a sentence or two, but it stood out.
Osborne is history as far as I am concerned, and even as a remainer I would like to see Gove as Chancellor
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Quite.
Incidentally, I've always noticed a strong correlation between champagne socialists and those most concerned about their current 'house price'.
To be fair I'm not sure Tyson would call himself a socialist. But there are a lot of people who obviously have some kind of connection with Labour and refuse to vote Tory even when they become middle aged and obsessed with house prices.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
The YouGov polling had sportsmen, luvvies, clergy, politicians and journalists down as not worth paying much attention to. This applied to both Remain and Leave.
Mrs Beckham is all over VoteLeave rebuttal posts with the tagline "Should've listened to the missus"
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
The YouGov polling had sportsmen, luvvies, clergy, politicians and journalists down as not worth paying much attention to. This applied to both Remain and Leave.
Mrs Beckham is all over VoteLeave rebuttal posts with the tagline "Should've listened to the missus"
It's not just who comes out for Leave/Remain, it's how and when.
Plenty of voters who see a lucid, articulate "right on" last minute declaration for Remain by those who have coincidentally been focussed group as being the most influential will, rightly, smell a rat.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
With rates so low, why would you bother?
It's always sensible to shop around at the expiry of your current product but there's probably little value to doing so during its term.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
No. bearing in mind that large cities, especially London, and also Scotland and NI are expected to be heavily Remain, Leave has to be well ahead elsewhere if it is to have any chance.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Lower house prices is to the advantage of people wanting to move to a more expensive house and first time buyers.
Higher house prices is to the advantage of people downsizing or exiting the house market for whatever reason.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
I'm always diving in and out of my capital mortgage balance, currently I'm effectively interest only as cash deposits are earning me more elsewhere (Some FSCS protected and some not)
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
IMO, 57% for Kent *as a whole* is fairly positive for Leave.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
How did the Government sources examine the relevant papers during a purdah period?
Civil servants are allowed, obliged I believe, to respond in a factual way to specific requests for information that would be answerable under FOI requests.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently.
Leaving the EU "will make our [immigration] situation worse" - really, in spades. We are offered very little in the way of real facts by politicians and the multitudinous soothsayers (consulting very few varieties of crystal balls), but the standout, indisputable fact is that we CANNOT control immigration from within the EU if we are in the EU. For me (and I don't think I'm alone on this), this is one of the principal issues. It's about CONTROL of immigration and woe betide any politician given that control and not exercising it; providing the majority of his voting constituents think he should have. For the benefit of supporters of the Brussels bureaucracy, that's democracy.
Even as a LEAVER, I can concede that leaving will probably not be a walk in the park short term, but long term decisions (which REMAIN insists this is), should never be based on short term facts never mind fantasies. None of this is self interest. I will be damaged by any short term economic penalties (Gideon inspired or otherwise) and unlikely to receive much of the longer term benefits. I am however happy for my children (who aren't exclusively LEAVERS) and my grandchildren to benefit, which I suppose is self interested since I care very much about that.
Just one comment on Turnout. Postal ballot returns are running higher than GE levels by all accounts I hear. But don't automatically assume that this reflects the population as a whole. Maybe it does, or maybe it reflects the fact that for certain demographics this is a very very important issue, for others there's a shrug of the shoulders and back to football. This is fascinating because I can't remember a time we have a had 'old' people and lower social classes up against the young and the higher social classes. I would guess that postal ballots probably oversample the old.......
Not so sure. As an agent I've always found older people more reluctant to take postals, thinking they are obliged to go to the polling station
@michaelsavage: Wow - Paul Kirby, who was in Downing St, says Steve Hilton's account of immigration advice from officials is wrong: https://t.co/DfOjhijc8O
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
Really? When I was young most people round here were housed, married, divorced and had teenage kids by the time they were 25
Seriously though. If youngsters can't get on the market round here, where you can still get a 3-bed terraced house for around £115k, then what hope do they have in the South East?
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
snip
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I think the most interesting aspect of the referendum is the whole axis of debate - a lot of shared issues/concerns have been exposed irrespective of which Party you tend to vote for. Those more interested in material things or culture or identity or whatever have found common ground with many they'd never even thought of.
How long it takes to revert to type after 23rd will be fascinating. I hope shaking the political kaleidoscope has a positive legacy overall.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
snip
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I think the most interesting aspect of the referendum is the whole axis of debate - a lot of shared issues/concerns have been exposed irrespective of which Party you tend to vote for. Those more interested in material things or culture or identity or whatever have found common ground with many they'd never even thought of.
How long it takes to revert to type after 23rd will be fascinating. I hope shaking the political kaleidoscope has a positive legacy overall.
@JeremyCliffe: For suspicious folk, curious that Brexiteers haven't hit on the most obvious conspiracy theory: Nigel Farage as deep-cover agent for Remain.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Either that's a lie, or it's blackmail.
Blackmail is such an ugly, inaccurate term.
I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making'
Is it even possible for a hypothetical event in the future to be a lie? It's still possible (though not necessarily likely) that Brexit will happen, that Osborne will remain Chancellor and that he will implement his emergency budget. It's neither true nor untrue yet.
Leave's 350m / week claim is, however, a flat lie. We know for a fact that we don't pay this money to the EU. There's no doubt at all about this.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
Yes, given that (apart from Sevenoaks) they are mostly away from London's direct influence, this is actually very positive news for Remain. If the core home counties come in with results like this then London, Scotland, the ex pats and Remain's target list of cities and large towns should be enough to swing it.
IMO, 57% for Kent *as a whole* is fairly positive for Leave.
No it really isn't. Not that I believe the poll is accurate.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine. A low turnout on the day will also enhance the weight of the postal vote, which most likely also favours Leave.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
If you bought it as an investment then it comes with the investment warning. If you bought it as a home then you sit tight unless you have to move and (in either case) if you're trading on then the replacement asset/ home will be subject to the same price variation generating a net gain if you're trading up and minimising the loss if trading down. Mortgages are very competitively priced at present (and have been for the past 7+ years. This is a very complex issue and I'm just stirring the pot.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
I bought my first flat at 23, but could only manage it because of a parental guarantee.
There was a 'Vote Leave' advert on the back (or perhaps a wraparound?) of the Metro in Edinburgh today too. 'Vote Leave take back control'. Blue background with a faint union flag. Gratifying to see, but not in any way focused regionally (which I think you can do with Metro) and none of the key messages, so therefore a bit of a wasted opportunity.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
I bought my first flat at 23, but could only manage it because of a parental guarantee.
Bought our first one bed flat in 1988. In Haywards Heath for £52,500. I think half our income was spent on the 95% mortgage. We were 21/22.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
(And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
Can I declare PB a "safe space" on ultra bearish London house price comments?
Surely as a sensible banker you aren't overexposed to one particular asset type (In one area of the country...) ?
I don't view a personal residence as an asset from a financial perspective. And even on a 50% fall in prices I'd be okay on my leverage ratios, but it would still suck (thinking about opportunity cost).
But I am diversified in real estate across asset class (residential, commercial), geography (although most of my UK holdings are either inside the M25 or in Warwickshire, so not that diversified!) and currency.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
I'm always diving in and out of my capital mortgage balance, currently I'm effectively interest only as cash deposits are earning me more elsewhere (Some FSCS protected and some not)
You must be being charged a very low mortgage rate to be earning more interest on a cash deposit.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
I bought my first flat at 23, but could only manage it because of a parental guarantee.
Bought mine at 23, back in mid 1980s. Only achieved by doing insane amounts of overtime to raise a deposit.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
If Hilton's such an idiot, WTF did the PM employ him? I suppose it's not quite as bad as the PM employing a criminal.
Hilton's big idea was the Big Society. Highly laudable except for the massive, obvious, planet sized flaw in it which was they would cut funding from central and local government to voluntary sector at the same time.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
That's actually not quite as good as I expected for Leave in Kent.
Good news for Remain.
Leave need to be winning places like Kent handsomely.
@MrHarryCole: Met Office issue yellow weather warning: "potentially intense thundery downpours late Wednesday and through Thursday."
The leave postal votes are already in though.
Crap weather on Thursday is surely in Leave's favour, they're more motivated and therefore likely to turn up on the day come rain or shine.
Both NatCen and ORB found Remainers more motivated/likely to vote.
Leave's voters are not all passionate though. To get 51% they will still be relying on the recent working class labour converts to the cause - who are much weaker than kippers or leave tories in their convictions and likelihood to vote.
The flipside is that crap weather probably also depresses the youth remain vote too.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Lower house prices is to the advantage of people wanting to move to a more expensive house and first time buyers.
Higher house prices is to the advantage of people downsizing or exiting the house market for whatever reason.
Or remortgaging at the end of their mortgage term......
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
This is what the Mortimers of this world don't grasp. Once your fix comes to an end, the best deals are almost always by remortgaging – your loan to value being the key determinant of the rate you get...
I'm on a lifetime tracker at 1.89% + base. I've never considered changing it
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed you people up to an economy built on easy, borrowed money, house price inflation and living on the never, never and a vote to leave the EU would rectify that and bring some rationality to household debt and house prices. So we can't leave the EU because we'd all be screwed because of the decisions us politicians made'
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
Most of my friends had their own place by the time they were 25 (which was exactly the age I first bought a house). The only exceptions I can think of were one friend who went to work in Japan and two who went to London or nearby.
That said, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have been able to buy what I did, when I did, in today's housing / employment market.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
Try remortgaging it. Ouch.
Genuine question, how much remortgaging goes on nowadays?
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
With rates so low, why would you bother?
Total rubbish. I have just saved ~£300 pcm by remortgaging. I could have saved even more if I'd gone for a shorter fix.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
You lose in part the ability to sell your home in order to repay the outstanding debts. Which of course is largely immaterial if you have only a small mortgage, or none at all, but many people have very significant mortgages.
Which is true, especially of the younger generation (ie me and my family). But it is also like saying 'we signed ....
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
I didn't know anyone who owned a house or flat before the age of 25 when I was growing up.
I bought my first flat at 23, but could only manage it because of a parental guarantee.
Bought our first one bed flat in 1988. In Haywards Heath for £52,500. I think half our income was spent on the 95% mortgage. We were 21/22.
Bought our first end of terrace house, 3bed near the Scrubs for £66k in 1987 and it was worth £75k+ in 1988. Took 20% of salary in 1987.
There was a 'Vote Leave' advert on the back (or perhaps a wraparound?) of the Metro in Edinburgh today too. 'Vote Leave take back control'. Blue background with a faint union flag. Gratifying to see, but not in any way focused regionally (which I think you can do with Metro) and none of the key messages, so therefore a bit of a wasted opportunity.
The Metro I saw on the way into London this morning had the same Leave wraparound. I noted on the back it was a DUP sponsored thing.
There was a 'Vote Leave' advert on the back (or perhaps a wraparound?) of the Metro in Edinburgh today too. 'Vote Leave take back control'. Blue background with a faint union flag. Gratifying to see, but not in any way focused regionally (which I think you can do with Metro) and none of the key messages, so therefore a bit of a wasted opportunity.
Surely 'take back control' is one of the key messages?
Dad paid the deposit on the flat I got when I started work in Bham in 94. It was 35k and I sold it for 93k in 06, allowing me to buy a house.
The government is doing a little bit to undo the damage of the last ten years, but it's not enough. Its hands are tied because a lot of its voters are the new landlord class.
I've always thought of Alan Johnson as a reasonable sort of bloke. He probably is but his comments on BBC this morning are extremely disingenuous.
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently...... .
He always seems to be sensible until you listen to what he is actually saying and then it falls apart.
He waffled genially on Sky earlier.
Very pleasant but does he struggle to take on a brief given to him?
Comments
Consider the scenario*:
1. Brexit happens
2. Osborne delivers a swift emergency budget full of cuts and tax rises
3. It gets voted down by a hefty majority of Lab (anti cuts) and Cons (anti tax rises)
4. A vote of no confidence in the government ensues
5. The government lose that vote (they only have a majority of 12. post Brexit, that won't mean anything)
6. Cameron and Osborne are replaced
Whatever you think of Osborne, he is not stupid. He would not commit political suicide.
*And it's all a moot point anyway because I think he would resign in the event of Brexit.
This is a very well choreographed campaign.
Incidentally, I've always noticed a strong correlation between champagne socialists and those most concerned about their current 'house price'.
The guy who knew it would happen, or the guy who wished it away?
Mrs Beckham is all over VoteLeave rebuttal posts with the tagline "Should've listened to the missus"
I used to hear about it all the time from parents, uncles etc - now I hear of almost no-one bothering...
'If there is a Brexit crash, who do you want in the Treasury?
The guy who knew it would happen, or the guy who wished it away?'
Not the guy that claimed our deficit would be cleared by 2015.
Plenty of voters who see a lucid, articulate "right on" last minute declaration for Remain by those who have coincidentally been focussed group as being the most influential will, rightly, smell a rat.
The poorer people of this country really have been screwed.
You consider that I live in the Valleys and I'm involved with lots and lots of young rugby players. I don't know any under the age of 25 who own a house. And this is in the Valleys! One of the cheapest areas in Britain to buy a property.
Higher house prices is to the advantage of people downsizing or exiting the house market for whatever reason.
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-cameron-finally-looking-heir-blair
I can see a big gray area here..
"This is not a referendum about immigration" - really? How did he come to that conclusion? Whilst the question on the paper is REMAIN or LEAVE without requiring any description of the thought processes, any vote is clearly about whatever the voter thinks it is about, however inconvenient that might be for a politician whose interests are not being served by voters deciding inconveniently.
Leaving the EU "will make our [immigration] situation worse" - really, in spades. We are offered very little in the way of real facts by politicians and the multitudinous soothsayers (consulting very few varieties of crystal balls), but the standout, indisputable fact is that we CANNOT control immigration from within the EU if we are in the EU. For me (and I don't think I'm alone on this), this is one of the principal issues. It's about CONTROL of immigration and woe betide any politician given that control and not exercising it; providing the majority of his voting constituents think he should have. For the benefit of supporters of the Brussels bureaucracy, that's democracy.
Even as a LEAVER, I can concede that leaving will probably not be a walk in the park short term, but long term decisions (which REMAIN insists this is), should never be based on short term facts never mind fantasies. None of this is self interest. I will be damaged by any short term economic penalties (Gideon inspired or otherwise) and unlikely to receive much of the longer term benefits. I am however happy for my children (who aren't exclusively LEAVERS) and my grandchildren to benefit, which I suppose is self interested since I care very much about that.
Seriously though. If youngsters can't get on the market round here, where you can still get a 3-bed terraced house for around £115k, then what hope do they have in the South East?
How long it takes to revert to type after 23rd will be fascinating. I hope shaking the political kaleidoscope has a positive legacy overall.
Ladbrokes make it 8/11 that Farage will have quit UKIP leadership by Monday. It's evens that he won't
@JeremyCliffe: For suspicious folk, curious that Brexiteers haven't hit on the most obvious conspiracy theory: Nigel Farage as deep-cover agent for Remain.
Leave's 350m / week claim is, however, a flat lie. We know for a fact that we don't pay this money to the EU. There's no doubt at all about this.
A low turnout on the day will also enhance the weight of the postal vote, which most likely also favours Leave.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/21/livingstones-hitler-history-debunked-j-tv/
Does that mean Osborne is his Ali Campbell?
But I am diversified in real estate across asset class (residential, commercial), geography (although most of my UK holdings are either inside the M25 or in Warwickshire, so not that diversified!) and currency.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/24/two-of-the-last-four-phone-polls-have-remain-leading-amongst-65-voters/
Good news for Remain.
Leave need to be winning places like Kent handsomely.
The flipside is that crap weather probably also depresses the youth remain vote too.
(£300 per square foot in Chelsea...those were the days!)
EDIT: 3 bed, but with two lodgers.
That said, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have been able to buy what I did, when I did, in today's housing / employment market.
The government is doing a little bit to undo the damage of the last ten years, but it's not enough. Its hands are tied because a lot of its voters are the new landlord class.