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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined
Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders intends to fight to the convention https://t.co/GxidqTD8Q6 pic.twitter.com/w27IG4g96g
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That's like Liz Kendall refusing to quit the Labour leadership election.
The Betfair 7 on 75-80% is only down to 6.2. Value on this.
I don't know... On Newsnight last night they were pretty unequivocal that it's "illegal" to extend voter registration beyond the cut off time... Maybe they were wrong though?
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/08/pound-jumps-as-uk-factories-roar-back-into-life/
Huzzah for Dave and George.
I've answered your question about standard distribution on the previous thread
@RodCrosby
I've thanked you for your run-of-heads answer on the previous thread
Why do Remainers want to break the rules when things aren't going their way?
Last year, it turned out that only 30% actually made it through out of 5m applicants.
TSE - "I don't know."
Sunil - "Come here" [punches TSE in the face!]
TSE - "Ow!"
So, developing a previous post on how Euro 2016 (just wrt England for the current post) will look over the referendum, FWIW:
England's group fate will be known on Monday evening
England's opponent is very likely not to be known until Wednesday night due to both 3rd place qualification table and group F being decided on that night
So, will be very little time for debate of the aspects relevant to a known opponent, though the range of likely opponents will narrow down and perhaps allow some discussion beforehand.
Looking at the various odds, implied possible opponents for England are as follows. Match expected to follow on Saturday unless stated. As might be expected it's all a bit pinsticker-y:
12% - None / England fail to qualify from group
10% - Romania
8% - Austria (Mon)
7% - Albania, Croatia, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland
6% - Portugal, Iceland (both Mon)
5% - Hungary (Mon), Germany (likely Sun, poss Sat), Spain
3% - Ukraine, Poland (likely Sat, poss Sun)
1% - France, Northern Ireland
By EU status:
Eastern European EU member (inc Croatia) - 32%
Western European EU member - 26%
Accession talks state - 14%
EEA and/or EFTA - 13%
DNQ - 12%
Non EU member - 3%
I don't understand why the service crashed at all.
A well built system on a scalable cloud infrastructure should have handled the surge without problems.
They KNOW they will get these surges, yet were still not ready for it?
They could have held the web site open another hour or so and it would have covered it.
Cameron is doing well in excess of that.
And the website should not have crashed (see my other post).
It's like you go to a play or a concert and everyone else is expected to wait for the handful of idiots who cant get there on time because they were watching the end of Emmerdale.
A lot of fences will need to be mended. I don't want either side to be banging 'we wuz robbed' drum any more than is necessary.
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
Scalable means it can grow well beyond your plans.
With cloud servers you can just specify when another server will be created (in a few minutes) to automatically handle the new load. It should have just kept on expanding as more people turned up.
You have design it with that in mind, of course.
This. Is. It.
But if people wish to vote, and are eligible to do so, they should be able to.
Still, he's not diminished himself as much as Brown did, so there's that.
"The deadline to register to vote for the 2015 General Election has passed – and nearly half a million people put their names on the electoral register on Monday."
Remember how the young uns were going to win the IndyRef for Eck, and it turns out they voted to remain in the UK.
Who knows young people might vote Leave and confound expectations again.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/740530283938713600
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/740530361508204544
An elderly neighbor asked me whether they needed to "register" to vote in the referendum even though they received their polling cards weeks ago...
(Bangs head against table!)
Prof Cowley is enjoying himself.
So Cameron is anything but a democrat, because he is concerned to improve democracy only in a rare case when doing so works to his political advantage.
I write that as someone committed to Leave. As I democrat I welcome the fact that the deadline has been extended, regardless of the fact that a Leave vote is less likely as a consequence. What I object to is the hypocrisy of Cameron's failure to do anything to address the wider and manifest flaws in the system of individual registration, the rush to late registration being a symptom of a much wider problem.
Trump = 4.3 ;
Implied:
¬ Brexit = 1.3636..
¬ Trump = 1.3030..
Brexit + Trump = 16.125
Brexit + ¬ Trump = 4.886
¬ Brexit + Trump = 5.8636
¬ Brexit + ¬ Trump = 1.7768
Neither has to be close to Evens for one or the other (Or both) to occur, SQRT(2) ( 1.414) would do it.
The implied probability of either Trump, Brexit or both right now is 43.7%.
Edit: So put me down for a 50% turnout.
That is still only a small step though. The best and most comprenhensive registration systems now operating in many parts of the world integrate electoral registration with other official records of your identity, so that normally you don't need to register and instead the government does it automatically for you based on the other official records they have of you.
Can it be that people aren't interested in the EU because there's nothing they can do to influence it?
(Good afternoon, everybody)
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/
Look at the favourability rating of the EU in France, it's even worse than here.
Also the detail of our favourability ratings are interesting, the right left split is quite large, but the moderates/centrists have almost the same rating a the right. Again, the "little Englander" charge seems like a big, big gamble given that EUsceptics are the mainstream.