I think the EC's suggested 80% turnout for the referendum is overestimated. if you start with 66% turnout at the last election, you're gonna get to the majority, but not all, of those people casting a vote (certain loyal Labour and tribal Tory types may just not give a damn about the EU either way). on the other hand, you're going to see certain people (who live in safe seats, or who have a none-of-the-above attitude) voting in this referendum. You're going to see EU turnout at about 68% I reckon.
Anecdotally, in my own family, amongst the 2015 GE non-voters, 3 are not voting in the referendum as they just don't care, 2 are going for remain because 'why take the risk', and 1 is going for leave because immigration. Wouldn't be surprised to see those figures replicated across the 2015 GE non-voters overall.
If anyone wants to know why Cameron wants to break the rules for the election, and extend the registration period it is this:-
"Around 132,000 of the people who registered on Tuesday were aged under 25, compared to around 13,000 from the 65 to 74-year-old age group."
They have applied to register, haven't they?
Last year, it turned out that only 30% actually made it through out of 5m applicants.
I don't understand why the service crashed at all.
A well built system on a scalable cloud infrastructure should have handled the surge without problems.
They KNOW they will get these surges, yet were still not ready for it?
They stress tested it to GE levels of registration and beyond, but it was several times that levels
Bollocks. As an IT guy they screwed up, should have known it was coming and planned accordingly. No sympathy for the EC, I want to see their CIO or IT Dir before a select ctte.
Agreed, when you stress test you don't test your max expected level of usage, you test 5x that amount just in case
But if they were basing their expected level on the EU interest level registered in polls, they'd be expecting many times less than the GEs.
I don't understand why the service crashed at all. A well built system on a scalable cloud infrastructure should have handled the surge without problems. They KNOW they will get these surges, yet were still not ready for it?
They stress tested it to GE levels of registration and beyond, but it was several times that levels
Except that now it is a matter of individual registration, so it is bound to be a bit different.
Sometimes one gets the impression that this Conservative Government has no idea what it is doing. I suppose that the person responsible for this fiasco (presumably Mark Hancock) will tender his resignation.
Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Anna, neither are close to evens.
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.
The Mail is talking bollocks on the EU and immigration, say it ain't so
An article of 3 April ('Report shows the NHS is nearly at breaking point as massive influx of EU migrants forces doctors to take on 1.5million extra patients in just three years') stated that the surge in GP registrations was caused directly by EU migration.
We are happy to make clear that - while leave EU campaigners blamed the rise in registrations on rising EU migration - the Health & Social Care Information Centre does not provide a breakdown of patients by GP per nationality, and that increasing life expectancy and migration from outside the EU are factors in the rise.
Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Anna, neither are close to evens.
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.
We discussed the poll earlier, apparently the sample for the Red Box was heavily skewed pro-Brexit before hand.
Whilst the undecideds self-identified as such, it is difficult to maintain a true group of swing voters at the best of times. There are far fewer swing voters than self-identified swing voters.
Given the "decideds" showed a massive skew to Farage (80/20 IIRC), I am not sure we can learn much from "undecideds".
I think you are misreading the graph. The red are leavers who liked Farage and disliked Cameron. The Blue are remainers who liked Cameron and disliked Farage. The green are undecided.
We discussed the poll earlier, apparently the sample for the Red Box was heavily skewed pro-Brexit before hand.
Whilst the undecideds self-identified as such, it is difficult to maintain a true group of swing voters at the best of times. There are far fewer swing voters than self-identified swing voters.
Assuming Brexit and a Trump presidency aren't correlated - the markets seem to be suggesting it's about evens for one or other or both events to occur. Interesting times!
Anna, neither are close to evens.
Brexit is around 11/4 (nearly 3/1) and Trump is 10/3 (3.3/1) to be next President.
I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti Patel
I look forward to it almost as much as the AV thread.
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shutdown of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
What is Tony's solution? To bomb Facebook and Twitter HQ?
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
I am totally against extending the deadline for voter registration. The government must have spent millions on publicising getting registered and as usual the "lazy, couldn't be bothered, last minute brigade, are now being pandered to for purely political reasons. The Electoral Commission have questions to answer on how this wasn't planned for.
I think politics just stinks at the moment. There was no public trust before but now it must be zero.
"Blair said that Twitter and social media had created “the era of the loudmouth” and that this made David Cameron’s job even harder than the job of prime minister was when he did it."
Blair also said that he expected turnout at the referendum would be "substantially higher" than the GE.
Good old Tony getting madder by the day...
This is probably the first time I have agreed with Tony Blair on anything.
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
On the other hand, it has reduced the power of the mainstream media.
Fact is, in any democracy, there will always be some channels for popular opinion that make themselves felt on the government.
@BBCPhilipSim: Queenferry Crossing crews lost 13 days in April and 12 days in May because of strong winds. Mr Brown says delay is "very recent development"
@rougvie77: 25 days construction lost due to weather. Six months late on completion. My maths is even worse than I thought.
@BBCPhilipSim: Queenferry Crossing crews lost 13 days in April and 12 days in May because of strong winds. Mr Brown says delay is "very recent development"
@rougvie77: 25 days construction lost due to weather. Six months late on completion. My maths is even worse than I thought.
At least it's not like that new Berlin airport. What was it, a week before opening it was put back by three years?!
I am totally against extending the deadline for voter registration. The government must have spent millions on publicising getting registered and as usual the "lazy, couldn't be bothered, last minute brigade, are now being pandered to for purely political reasons. The Electoral Commission have questions to answer on how this wasn't planned for.
I think politics just stinks at the moment. There was no public trust before but now it must be zero.
they could extend the franchise to 16yr olds too...
(did they do that in Scotland, or did I dream it?)
I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti Patel
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.
IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
Treating those "traitors" to capital punishment would be like solving over-population by putting boys down at birth as, I seem to remember, was suggested by the Grey Friars janitor/gardener in the Billy Bunter stories.
Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...
To be fair I can imagine occurrences why you might not be able to get to a polling station until really late on ie work / delays on trains etc, but registering online to vote takes 2 minutes & can be done anytime, anywhere.
I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti Patel
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.
IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...
Although I think if you turn up at two minutes to ten and there's a massive queue, you can still vote - as long as you're in the queue before ten you'll be fine. Unfortunately I'm not sure there's an online equivalent.
Why were so many people waiting until 2 hrs before the deadline?
Same reason a lot of people wait until two minutes to ten to turn up at their Polling station...
To be fair I can imagine occurrences why you might not be able to get to a polling station until really late on ie work / delays on trains etc, but registering online to vote takes 2 minutes & can be done anytime, anywhere.
Like it or not, registering with 1 or 2 hours to go is just as legitimate as having been on the register for years and renewing as soon as prompted. The extension to tomorrow night is no more and no less than we should have expected, enough for the news to get out and for people to check back but not any longer.
Did I read down thread that they were going to try and verify that those registering today and tomorrow had attempted to access the website last night, or is that wrong?
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
any chance of it being finally decided in the european court of human rights .....
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Let's see if he can do better than with joey Essex...i am presuming the school kids will be more intelligent...more intelligent than corbyn that is!
My favourite bit with Joey Essex was the look on EdM's face - he clearly didn't understand a word he said, hence asking others to answer him. I know Joey's got quite a strong accent, but it's not that impenetrable.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
I see this is not the thread when pbers across the political spectrum are agonising about poor levels of voter engagement.
Indeed. I'd rather lose this referendum on an 80% turnout than win it on a 40% turnout.
If we get to 80% turnout you wont be seeing a Conservative government for quite some time.
Maybe. But I'm expecting a Thousand Year Cameroon Reich after a strong Remain victory.
And a 1000 year Patel Maharani after a Leave victory.
I still need to publish my hatchet job on Priti Patel
And to think that less than 2 months ago you were undecided.
I've been very impressed by Leavers like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling who have acted honourably in this referendum.
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
Chris Grayling has been much more measured than I expected.
Patel has gone out of her way to trash Cameron and the Government, Grayling has done the exact opposite.
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.
IIRC, didn't Cameron pretty much say he would sack Patel after the referendum? She is merely getting her revenge in early. Of course, by September I only expect one of them to be in government - and it ain't Dave.
Priti won't be sacked (if Remain win) but she will be denied full Cabinet membership (which was almost hers for the taking) and shuffled off to another more junior department but remaining a Minister of State.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.
Ultimately I doubt it will be that close and all of this will be academic.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.
It's a little like Athenian democracy - when you actually study the period and see some of the boneheaded things they voted through during their golden period, it really does make you mutter under your breath.
As one example, Themistocles (saviour of the Greeks at Salamis) was stripped of his naval command in the following year, and ostracised a few years later. It was even worse during the Peloponnesian War.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.
In my limited experience fantasies about lawyers earning mountains of dosh arguing about election results seem to be mainly that. :-(
Comments
Anecdotally, in my own family, amongst the 2015 GE non-voters, 3 are not voting in the referendum as they just don't care, 2 are going for remain because 'why take the risk', and 1 is going for leave because immigration. Wouldn't be surprised to see those figures replicated across the 2015 GE non-voters overall.
narrated by Sam West
Episode 1:
"2010 - Helped into Power"
Sometimes one gets the impression that this Conservative Government has no idea what it is doing. I suppose that the person responsible for this fiasco (presumably Mark Hancock) will tender his resignation.
no details yet.
The Times point it was a self selecting panel, of which 80% backed Brexit before the debate.
They also said the undecided sample wasn't representative or scientific.
An article of 3 April ('Report shows the NHS is nearly at breaking point as massive influx of EU migrants forces doctors to take on 1.5million extra patients in just three years') stated that the surge in GP registrations was caused directly by EU migration.
We are happy to make clear that - while leave EU campaigners blamed the rise in registrations on rising EU migration - the Health & Social Care Information Centre does not provide a breakdown of patients by GP per nationality, and that increasing life expectancy and migration from outside the EU are factors in the rise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-3630502/Clarifications-corrections.html
The voters in the referendum will be a self-selecting panel...
Whilst the undecideds self-identified as such, it is difficult to maintain a true group of swing voters at the best of times. There are far fewer swing voters than self-identified swing voters.
That might top an AV thread for excitement.
here ye go, loves.. (for balance and a' that)
Social media has been detrimental to politics IMO. Everything seems so short-term in politics these days. The minute they get any flak on twitter/facebook etc they do a "u-turn."
Priti Patel has been a complete numpty.
Plus her logic for supporting the death penalty has irked me for many years.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
Who knew!
Ditto Liam Fox.
Sack Patel, and promote Grayling and Fox.
I think politics just stinks at the moment. There was no public trust before but now it must be zero.
Fact is, in any democracy, there will always be some channels for popular opinion that make themselves felt on the government.
@BBCPhilipSim: Queenferry Crossing crews lost 13 days in April and 12 days in May because of strong winds. Mr Brown says delay is "very recent development"
@rougvie77: 25 days construction lost due to weather. Six months late on completion.
My maths is even worse than I thought.
@cicorre64: Dear Mr Cameron, I attach a photograph of 'Little Englanders..' Last night you insulted a nation. Resign. https://t.co/N4msMrIKYv
@Otto_English:
A: British war graves are slabs
B: French graves are crosses
C: Tricolour visible on the left
brexit is not hurting the economy.
(did they do that in Scotland, or did I dream it?)
*innocent face*
for now...
Typical leaver, always obsessed about Muslims.
We're getting an Ipsos Mori poll next week.
Then one on the 22nd.
Did I read down thread that they were going to try and verify that those registering today and tomorrow had attempted to access the website last night, or is that wrong?
Didn't we just have some elections in April?
Why the complete lack of concern by all parties (voters included) on registration then?
As one example, Themistocles (saviour of the Greeks at Salamis) was stripped of his naval command in the following year, and ostracised a few years later. It was even worse during the Peloponnesian War.