Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.
An 11-year-old disabled girl who was restrained by police with handcuffs, legstraps and a hood endured "a nightmare", her mother has said.
The child was held alone in police custody for a total of 60 hours without an appropriate adult after being arrested three times and detained under the Mental Health Act once between February and March 2012.
Sussex police restrained her using a mesh "spit hood", handcuffs and leg straps but failed to record why they had used force, according to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.
Think it would need to be closer than that realistically. I haven't fully thought it through yet, but I suspect the passing of emergency legislation (by our sovereign Parliament, ho-ho) to extend the deadline to midnight tomorrow will snuff out any route to a legal challenge. (I would ho-ho even louder if Remain won and Leave had to rely on some form of fundamental rights basis of challenge under the ECHR or some aspect of EU law!)
Unilateral extension outside the terms of the legislation would almost certainly be ripe for challenge, very much so. But I'd think the challenger would need to show clear evidence that the result would have been (not just may have been) different but for (whatever the issue complained of is).
The "polling cards to those not entitled" seems the more ripe basis for challenge in my mind, if the result comes down to the tens of thousands in vote totals either way - but will it really be THAT close?
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
No reply so far!
The riptide of madness let loose by this referendum is, well, unfortunate. Sometimes I wonder if asking the people is overrated.
Despite the ignorant public, mendacious campaigns, biased reporting, special pleading and lobbying, and absurd fearmongering, the British public - as with many other national electorates - has a remarkably good record of somehow producing outcomes that not only work but are often quite precisely what best fits the bill at the time.
Why the complete lack of concern by all parties (voters included) on registration then?
Perhaps the people trying to register to vote had your crap knowledge on when elections take place, and only found out the right date at the last moment.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
Are they voting too?
Dunno that's my question. Having just checked there's 250K total population between them (175k electors??), which dwarfs Gibraltar, but I've not heard they are voting.
If not why exactly is Gibraltar? Is it because it's in the S West EU MEP region?
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
If it's 51-49 in either direction, it's going to be the UK version of the 2000 US Presidential Election.
Austria seems to have accepted their knife edge result without any faff. The key question is whether any irregularity would be sufficient to alter the result. You probably need to have a sub 50,000 margin before anyone would get too agitated.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
There's only 32K of them in total including children and non voters.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.
Yes I'd agree all round, but I don't know whether the various islands get to vote.
An 11-year-old disabled girl who was restrained by police with handcuffs, legstraps and a hood endured "a nightmare", her mother has said.
The child was held alone in police custody for a total of 60 hours without an appropriate adult after being arrested three times and detained under the Mental Health Act once between February and March 2012.
Sussex police restrained her using a mesh "spit hood", handcuffs and leg straps but failed to record why they had used force, according to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
@cicorre64: Dear Mr Cameron, I attach a photograph of 'Little Englanders..' Last night you insulted a nation. Resign. https://t.co/N4msMrIKYv
Insulting the British may go down well with some people who would rather be part of the Soviet Union but Mr and Mrs Nuneaton-Thurrock-Sunderland will remember what their ancestors endured before them.
Whoever thinks this is smart for Cameron has completely lost the plot.
Whoever is telling him that the 'patriotic' thing to do is vote Remain is deluded.
He is drifting towards the Cenotaph in a donkey jacket whilst refusing to sing the national anthem.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
Are they voting too?
Dunno that's my question. Having just checked there's 250K total population between them (175k electors??), which dwarfs Gibraltar, but I've not heard they are voting.
If not why exactly is Gibraltar? Is it because it's in the S West EU MEP region?
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.
I don't think it's unfair for Gib to get the vote, although I think that in that case, the Isle of Man and Channel Islands should get the vote as well.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
Even though I am for Brexit, I think the case for giving the Rock the vote is overwhelming.
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
It directly affects the whole of the EU. Are we going to give them all the vote?
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.
I don't think it's unfair for Gib to get the vote, although I think that in that case, the Isle of Man and Channel Islands should get the vote as well.
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.
I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
The obvious thing to do is to laugh at Remain, point out to anyone who's missed it that they will do anything to twist the vote their way, remind them of the £10m spent on the government leaflet and invite people to reflect how you much you can trust them.
I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
Yes but if this is really close (and I hope to God it's not) we're in hanging chad territory or one side not accepting the vote and we really are off to the races.
In reality it would have to be bonkers close for any of this to matter and given the pollsters recent record in "the big one" of being unable to hit a cow's arse with banjo at point blank range we may still be in 55/45 territory come 8.00 on the 24th and all this is totally academic. If we are not and we are waiting for the south district of Gibraltar to wake up and start counting at breakfast time this could be simply huge.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.
Out of the blue, had a long-standing correspondent for Broxtowe send me an email saying that I and everyone else supporting Remain were TRAITORS.
I've asked him if it's not a bit worrying to think that roughly half the population seem to be traitors, did he think that a few might be non-traitors with a different opinion?
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
REMAIN very, very desperate and clinging to anything that will save their skins (and jobs)
I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
Didn't someone earlier claim 1% of the UK's electorate trying to log in at the same time was suspicious? I am about to drive home so cannot double check the figures.
If it does end up really close all this stuff about eu citizens wrongly getting polling cards & extended time to register is going to earn lawyers a lot of money.
Only if it's 50.1% v 49.9% close.
Think it would need to be closer than that realistically. I haven't fully thought it through yet, but I suspect the passing of emergency legislation (by our sovereign Parliament, ho-ho) to extend the deadline to midnight tomorrow will snuff out any route to a legal challenge. (I would ho-ho even louder if Remain won and Leave had to rely on some form of fundamental rights basis of challenge under the ECHR or some aspect of EU law!)
Unilateral extension outside the terms of the legislation would almost certainly be ripe for challenge, very much so. But I'd think the challenger would need to show clear evidence that the result would have been (not just may have been) different but for (whatever the issue complained of is).
The "polling cards to those not entitled" seems the more ripe basis for challenge in my mind, if the result comes down to the tens of thousands in vote totals either way - but will it really be THAT close?
I think extending was the right thing to do. But it will be interesting to see how many people register in the next 48 hours compared with those who were unable to register in the two hours between 10 and midnight last night. I think Cameron has done what he does so often and seized his opportunity with both hands.
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire: It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire: It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?
Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
My gut tells me they might.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
I was staying in a hotel a few years ago watching one of her matches, I had ordered room service, there was a knock on the door, it was the waitress with my food.
Had to tell her I wasn't watching lesbian porn but Wimbledon
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
Still, the Leavers have some way to go to match this...
@BBCPhilipSim: John Mason is making Named Persons arguments based on the Bible. Many examples of families going wrong, like Cain killing Abel, he says.
Also "In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."
This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
Have you not understood that yet?
Just goes to show that TSE is the Baldrick of PB.com
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
No, they think they *might* lose. If they were fully expecting to lose then they'd be seeking to position themselves in such a way as to be able to nimbly accommodate the new reality. They'd be toning down the rhetoric and scare-stories, and looking to set the agenda about what Brexit means in practical terms.
This is not an election. It is a Referendum. It is a one-off chance to knee the Establishment in the groin without having five years of Buyers Remorse.
Have you not understood that yet?
I have, I wrote a few threads on it, earlier on this year.
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.
Interesting and not something I've ever really thought about, but as with the CI and IoM, the likes of the Vatican and San Marino, Monaco and Andorra are not in the EU; if those microstates are OK outside the EU then presumably Gibraltar would be - granted France, Italy, Spain as applicable presumably friendlier to them than Spain is to Gibraltar/UK.
Also interesting, from a quick bit of googling, that San Marino had an EU referendum in 2013 I didn't know about - the result was 50.3% Yes and 49.7% No (failed to pass on low turnout). Wonder if ours will be that close too....?
Still, the Leavers have some way to go to match this...
@BBCPhilipSim: John Mason is making Named Persons arguments based on the Bible. Many examples of families going wrong, like Cain killing Abel, he says.
And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.
Also "In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."
failed to mention the age distribution tho, so it looks like spin
Article in the Guardian on voters in Sunderland - Kevin is voting to leave - "Someone needs to buy Kevin a pint and explain the facts of economic and political life to him". I would pay money to watch.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
Mr. T., there was that feeling on here the morning after Cameron's first TV interview. I commented on at it the time. The stuffing seemed to have gone from the supporters of remain on this site. I didn't understand it then and I am not sure I do now, but I note several prominent remainers on here have since seemingly given up.
If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential then maybe, just maybe there might be cautious grounds for some optimism that Leave can actually win.
Either way, I suspect that we are in for a period of great political turmoil, and the smug elites will not hold such sway again.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.
As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?
Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).
"City professionals are not alone, as Lord Hayward has found that "motorway man", Britain's married middle-managers in their mid-30s, is defying Europhile expectations. These people are the essence of middle England and vote regularly, but are hard for pollsters to contact as they spend their life driving around the country due to their work. Labour wooed "Mondeo Man" (as they were known then) in 1997, and the Tories fought to win them back in order to get back into Government. Britain's motorway men were expected by Lord Hayward to prefer "heavily"to stay in the EU, but they split evenly between both options, suggesting Brexit is far more popular in middle England than Remainers would expect."
"Brexiteers will also want to thank Jeremy Corbyn for his lacklustre campaigning as Lord Hayward has found that Labour supporters have not been motivated to vote to stay in the EU. The Labour leader insists his party is "overwhelmingly for staying in", but this message doesn't seem to have trickled down to members, as many Labour blue-collar workers in the Midlands and North - which have been targeted by Ukip over recent years - are set to vote to Leave. He also found that female voters are not as inclined to vote Remain as much as polls say."
Has anybody worked out why Gibraltar have been given the vote in this referendum yet? Just because they are a part of one of our European Parliamentary seats it is not obvious why they should get a say on what the UK should do as a sovereign nation. If it gets really close this is going to look even odder.
I asked about the Channel Islands and IoM earlier. Nobody replied.....
I just replied. I think the same arguments apply to the Channel Islands and IoM.
Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.
Interesting and not something I've ever really thought about, but as with the CI and IoM, the likes of the Vatican and San Marino, Monaco and Andorra are not in the EU; if those microstates are OK outside the EU then presumably Gibraltar would be - granted France, Italy, Spain as applicable presumably friendlier to them than Spain is to Gibraltar/UK.
Also interesting, from a quick bit of googling, that San Marino had an EU referendum in 2013 I didn't know about - the result was 50.3% Yes and 49.7% No (failed to pass on low turnout). Wonder if ours will be that close too....?
Interesting San Marino result - 43% was deemed too low a turnout! Although the result needed 32% of the ELECTORATE to pass. So 50% of 43% was only 21.5% of the electorate.
And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.
The other gem to emerge so far from the debate
Teachers are expected to be Named Persons for school pupils.
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
My gut tells me they might.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.
"We just don't know" as Patrick Moore used to say on Sky at Night.
And where was the Social Work Department when that happened you have to ask? An inquiry is clearly called for, lessons need to be learned before we move on, etc.
The other gem to emerge so far from the debate
Teachers are expected to be Named Persons for school pupils.
What happens during the holidays?
Ummmm.....
Or private schools which are not parts of the State and therefore don't qualify? How will my son cope?
I was staying in a hotel a few years ago watching one of her matches, I had ordered room service, there was a knock on the door, it was the waitress with my food.
Had to tell her I wasn't watching lesbian porn but Wimbledon
I suppose it's a career option for her while she's serving her ban ...
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire: It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?
Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?
Housing is just a small part of the work around at the moment
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.
(1) Talk of ignoring the result (2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain (3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line (4) Last minute press conference by PM (5) Pushing out voter registration deadline
Given how many people failed to register until the last minute, polling stations must be prepared for a sudden rush at 9.55pm on June 23rd or perhaps 11.55pm by people who don't pay attention or even on June 24th.
I'm assuming sales of tinfoil are at an all time high
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
The obvious thing to do is to laugh at Remain, point out to anyone who's missed it that they will do anything to twist the vote their way, remind them of the £10m spent on the government leaflet and invite people to reflect how you much you can trust them.
And then move on. This is trivial.
And then consider that "Remain" doesnt actually do anything without the blessing of the Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, who is behaving like a two-bit hustler, he's a disgrace to the country.
Also "In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."
No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.
(1) Talk of ignoring the result (2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain (3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line (4) Last minute press conference by PM (5) Pushing out voter registration deadline
So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?
We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.
Bet accordingly.
All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.
My gut tells me they might.
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.
"We just don't know" as Patrick Moore used to say on Sky at Night.
Perhaps the answer's in the stars.
No-one knows.
But even I have been surprised at how impervious the British public have been to fear (with continued convergence to Leave in the polls) and I never thought Cameron's ratings could sink this low.
Remain massively overplayed their hand. That much is certain.
Given how many people failed to register until the last minute, polling stations must be prepared for a sudden rush at 9.55pm on June 23rd or perhaps 11.55pm by people who don't pay attention or even on June 24th.
Dave might extending voting by another hour of course... well, unless it looked like the youngsters had voted and most of those left were the oldies, then he might suddenly be in the bathroom for an hour at the time the critical decision was needed.
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire: It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?
Because we cannot keep building and building to house the unemployed of Europe?
Housing is just a small part of the work around at the moment
Yeah well people need more than a house. They need a place to work, shops, schools, hospitals etc. The growth is focused in the south like Hampshire because that is where immigration is strongest. It drives growth undoubtedly but at what price?
Comments
An 11-year-old disabled girl who was restrained by police with handcuffs, legstraps and a hood endured "a nightmare", her mother has said.
The child was held alone in police custody for a total of 60 hours without an appropriate adult after being arrested three times and detained under the Mental Health Act once between February and March 2012.
Sussex police restrained her using a mesh "spit hood", handcuffs and leg straps but failed to record why they had used force, according to the police watchdog, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).
http://news.sky.com/story/1708908/disabled-girl-handcuffed-and-hooded-by-police
Unilateral extension outside the terms of the legislation would almost certainly be ripe for challenge, very much so. But I'd think the challenger would need to show clear evidence that the result would have been (not just may have been) different but for (whatever the issue complained of is).
The "polling cards to those not entitled" seems the more ripe basis for challenge in my mind, if the result comes down to the tens of thousands in vote totals either way - but will it really be THAT close?
If not why exactly is Gibraltar? Is it because it's in the S West EU MEP region?
First, this is a foreign policy issue which directly affect them and the UK runs their foreign policy. We are not giving them a separate vote as to whether Gibraltar should Leave or Remain in the case of Brexit, so we must give them a say in the decision. Anything else would be completely undemocratic towards them.
Second, for Gibraltar, this is potentially an existential issue - there is a very clear possibility in the medium- to long-term that it will cease to exist as an entity distinct from Spain if the UK goes for Brexit.
Admittedly, this is a 150k tipping of the scales in favour of Bremain, but how can we not give them the same say in their future that we Brexiters are demanding for ourselves?
I believe that's what the Lord High Chancellor said.
Bet accordingly.
I seriously question if they would be getting a vote if they were 95% leave.
@JGForsyth: Senior figures on Leave side think someone deliberately crashed electoral registration site. Say traffic level at 10.15pm implausibly high
Whoever thinks this is smart for Cameron has completely lost the plot.
Whoever is telling him that the 'patriotic' thing to do is vote Remain is deluded.
He is drifting towards the Cenotaph in a donkey jacket whilst refusing to sing the national anthem.
(is Russia going to get to go to the olympics?)
And then move on. This is trivial.
In reality it would have to be bonkers close for any of this to matter and given the pollsters recent record in "the big one" of being unable to hit a cow's arse with banjo at point blank range we may still be in 55/45 territory come 8.00 on the 24th and all this is totally academic. If we are not and we are waiting for the south district of Gibraltar to wake up and start counting at breakfast time this could be simply huge.
Seems that isn't a very well known factoid.
What happens if there are far fewer than expected ........
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?
Brussels, immigrants, sovereignty has not been a winning trifecta at any previous British election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/trust-opinion-polls-eu-referendum-2015-general-election-pollsters
That's one way to ensure a Leave vote.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-to-make-live-televised-eu-referendum-intervention-three-days-before-polling-day-a7070921.html
What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?
My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.
But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.
Dunno.
I was staying in a hotel a few years ago watching one of her matches, I had ordered room service, there was a knock on the door, it was the waitress with my food.
Had to tell her I wasn't watching lesbian porn but Wimbledon
@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.
@BBCPhilipSim: John Mason is making Named Persons arguments based on the Bible. Many examples of families going wrong, like Cain killing Abel, he says.
"In fact, a large chunk of leave’s support base is those groups who are historically least likely to vote: the less affluent, the less educated, and the less politically engaged."
Have you not understood that yet?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/21/meet-the-man-who-could-win-the-referendum-for-leave/
Sadly that piece cost me the chance to become George Osborne's Chief of Staff when he becomes PM.
Also interesting, from a quick bit of googling, that San Marino had an EU referendum in 2013 I didn't know about - the result was 50.3% Yes and 49.7% No (failed to pass on low turnout). Wonder if ours will be that close too....?
Link I found, an interesting little read:
http://www.europeanpublicaffairs.eu/san-marino-thanks-but-no-thanks-eu-accession/
If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential then maybe, just maybe there might be cautious grounds for some optimism that Leave can actually win.
Either way, I suspect that we are in for a period of great political turmoil, and the smug elites will not hold such sway again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/europhiles-beware-the-voters-youre-relying-on-are-drifting-towar/
Seems opinion polls are over-stating REMAIN!
And
Although the result needed 32% of the ELECTORATE to pass. So 50% of 43% was only 21.5% of the electorate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sammarinese_referendum,_2013
Hopefully our EUref turnout and "% of electorate winning" will be much higher!
Teachers are expected to be Named Persons for school pupils.
What happens during the holidays?
Ummmm.....
Perhaps the answer's in the stars.
still, it does seem close at the moment
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline
But even I have been surprised at how impervious the British public have been to fear (with continued convergence to Leave in the polls) and I never thought Cameron's ratings could sink this low.
Remain massively overplayed their hand. That much is certain.
Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)
Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.