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How Britain voted – politicalbetting.com
How Britain voted – politicalbetting.com
Each pollster has a slightly different take on the 2024 UK election from their mega samples. For me the most interesting aspect of this data set was @IpsosUK finding of a direct collapse of Conservative support to Labour amongst ABs which online panels didn’t pick up as well. https://t.co/432KurwnZq
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NEW: Economist/YouGov Poll, July 27-30
% of registered voters who plan to vote for...
Harris: 46%
Trump: 44%
July 21-23 poll:
Trump: 44%
Harris: 41%
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_5LIBPv8.pdf#page=8"
https://x.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1818636275345150185
It was great for the first minute he played then it became a bit weird and awkward afterwards.
Trump (=0)
It would seem so...
And if there's anything left over after they've spent their own money on their own care they can do so. And if they spend it all on themselves, that's entirely reasonable too.
However those who are doing demanding employment today shouldn't be taxed to fund an unearned inheritance for others. That's not what taxes are there for.
If you want a state level "insurance" then a Dilnot policy ring fenced out of inheritance tax would be a form of insurance - those getting an inheritance would have the bulk of their inheritance be insured via that tax.
But it's not something those working today should be paying for.
Donald Trump: Samuel of Bulgaria
2024 election = The Battle of Kleidion
(I fucking hope, I am still scarred by 2016.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM7IopG38Uk&t=2205s
French television and audience tastes are in a world of their own, apparently. There was (and could be) no rehearsal, and commentators were not given the schedule, so were left to their own devices to identify torch bearers, singers and so on.
I understand that cricket may well be an olympic sport for 2028.
Some mistake surely?
"Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️
@LeftieStats
🚨 NEW: David Lammy confirms Labour has DITCHED its plans to recognise a Palestinian state.
Labour will instead delay recognition indefinitely, making it conditional on Israel feeling "safe and secure" as part of a "credible" and "viable" peace process."
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1818241569691963547
Under the current CT system, a two-bed apartment anywhere in the country roughly pays the same amount of council tax, and a three-bed house also pays pretty much the same anywhere.
Now, there’s arguments for a revaluation to catch areas that have gentrified over the past 30 years, and there’s arguments for adding more bands, but the basic princple of council tax is sound.
The problems come when people say that “A Band D property in Richmond, London, pays way less council tax than a Bad D property in Richmond, Yorkshire”. Well that’s because the London property is a small flat and the Yorkshire one a large house. It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how local taxes work, and the media don’t understand it either because they all live in London.
Anything that, as with stamp duty, uses a national scale of house prices to determine taxes paid, will make the poll tax riots look like a minor scuffle in the pub at closing time.
Getting sacked from your job for inappropriate interacts with a vulnerable young person amongst other things rather disqualifies you from playing the exemplary character card.
He probably thinks he's dealing with Emperor Palestine and the wookies run Israel
It's perfectly possible that someone will be getting the nod but Mr Shapiro speaks at the rally.
The big issue is that the T20 world cup needs to be shifted so it's not held 2 months before the Olympics.
Skwakbox are claiming that Rachel Reeves got £1,200 parliamentary expenses for energy bills for her London KPs home in 2023/24 citing IPSA
https://skwawkbox.org/2024/07/30/rachel-freeze-reeves-has-claimed-1000s-in-energy-bills-on-second-home/
And if the expenditure is demanded nationally in laws set by Westminster then national taxation is as local as it should be.
If it's to be local taxation it should be for demands made locally, not nationally.
As for it being potentially unpopular, that's true, but if it's both the right thing to do and unpopular then year one of having a landslide majority is the right time do the right but unpopular thing.
My point was more laughable lawyer saying my client, most upstanding person ever...
(Just for clarification - you weren't hiring him to have a romantic dinner with you ?
That would be a tiny bit weird.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnd064lx50lo
Some interesting comparisons with 2019 - from IPSOS-MORI's own figures:
18-24: Labour 41% (-21), Greens 19%, Liberal Democrats 16% (+7), Reform 8%, Conservative 5% (-14)
25-34: Labour 47%, (-4), Reform 13%, Greens 12%, Liberal Democrats 11% (-), Conservatives 10% (-17)
65+ Conservative 43% (-21), Labour 23% (+6), Reform 14%, Liberal Democrat 12% (+1), Greens 2%
It rather gives lie to this notion all the young are embracing "right wing" politics. It was a clear rejection of the old duopoly to perhaps a new one (Greens and Liberal Democrats).
I’m arguing for localisation, you’re arguing for centralisation, both of which are valid. But the issue is that you can’t base it on a national scale of house prices, because there’s currently a massive regional inequality in house prices which will always be there. Your idea would make every housing problem in London worse than it is already, and that’s why it’s the wrong thing to do.
If someone sent me an image of a 7-9 year old being abused I would not continue to correspond with or request images from that individual.
Sick.
Hope the Chinese EVs destined for Uber get a 100% tariff applied, this is a clearly an attempt by the Chinese company to get Uber’s Western lawyers and lobbyists fighting their cause.
1) the choice of website to link to is "interesting"
2) it's day old news that the main stream press don't seem to care about, I wonder why that is..
Note the differences in opinion here - I know it's Hunt's fked up NI cuts that have created a lot of the problems, you are pretending that those tax cuts were not a desperate attempt to win some votes.
StatsForLefties is the English non-binary statistician Ell Folan, who runs https://statsforlefties.wordpress.com/
They are probably not the same person.
Man, this place is so calm this afternoon without you know who's shouty posts.
Russell Brand now has nearly 7m Youtube subscribers, and the Lotus Eaters guys did a tour of the US conservative podcasts around the RNC.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49634-x
This study used whole population longitudinal health records from over 45.7 million adults in England to quantify associations of first, second and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccine brands used during the first two years of the UK vaccine rollout with the incidence of arterial and venous thromboses, thrombocytopenia and myocarditis. Estimated hazard ratios were adjusted for a wide range of potential confounders. The incidence of thrombotic and cardiovascular complications was generally lower after each dose of each vaccine brand. Exceptions, consistent with previous findings that have been recognised by medicines regulators, included rare complications of the ChAdOx1 vaccine (ICVT and thrombocytopenia, due to vaccine-induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis) and the mRNA vaccines (myocarditis and pericarditis). There were few differences between subgroups defined by demographic and clinical characteristics. These findings, in conjunction with the long-term higher risk of severe cardiovascular and other complications associated with COVID-19, offer compelling evidence supporting the net cardiovascular benefit of COVID vaccination.
The strengths of this study lie in the representativeness of the whole population data, offering an overview of thrombotic events after vaccination, as well as the comprehensive analyses of different vaccine dose and brand combinations in the general population. Consequently, the findings should apply to nations with comparable demographics and healthcare systems. The very large sample size facilitated estimation of associations with rare outcomes, within time periods after vaccination, and within population subgroups. The extensive longitudinal coverage of the health records also allowed examination of events after the first, second, and booster vaccinations. We addressed potential confounding by adjusting for a wide-range of demographic factors and prior diagnoses available in primary and secondary care records, defined using clinician-validated code lists that are accessible via our GitHub repository (available at https://github.com/BHFDSC/CCU002_06). Our analysis adhered to a pre-specified protocol with one deviation: we censored all analyses 26 weeks after vaccination to avoid interference from subsequent vaccinations..
If he has, he could be on for a hatrick this week.
"[Jewish people] are dropping Kamala and the Democrats like flies"
As people get older, they do tend to get confused about figures of speech.
NI should be abolished altogether.
If you want to put Income Tax up by the same amount NI comes down then that is no change for those working for a living but to exempt some from tax is not the solution.
Or am I demonstrating that I'm an older person?
I do however agree that in this day and age Employee NI is not a great tax, some of it should be retained for to cover the pension and out of work benefits but the vast majority of it should be applied to both workers and pensioners either in a different tax for health / social care or as part of income tax.
Employer NI is a different matter and we should be thankful it's only 13.8%. Elsewhere in Europe is a lot more than that.
Reeves is simply spinless. I could respect her is she wantd to increase public pay and came clean about it. Instead she us hiding behind others to avoid the heat. Coward.
And it's not as if people cant see through it. Now she's fked up even more by dragging the OBR in to things. If the OBR is meant to be non political , it now ii is now firmly in the political arena, And she has jusr painted herself in to a corner. as it owns her. That's not what a CoE should be doing.
And then of course there's the general loss of credibility as she backtracks on previous promises, changes policy and bribes her mates. Pre election you had a go at me for say she should cut spending and you told me there was no room for cuts. What would you say about the £1.5bn cut to pensioners heating ?
Clearly there is room and there will be more cuts to come. But instead of building infrastructure of or cutting the deficit, she'll simply spend on rubbish and we'll be no better off.
Every base, whether it be binary, decimal or hexadecimal, is base 10.
Just asking.
Why from the middle of nowhere did Rishi call an election just as the independent pay panels handed to the Government their recommendations?
35-44: Labour 41% (+2), Conservative 17% (-19), Reform 14%, Liberal Democrat 13% (-), Greens 7%
45-54: Labour 36% (+8), Conservative 22% (-24), Reform 17%, Liberal Democrats 14% (-), Greens 8%
55-64: Labour 32% (+5), Conservative 27% (-22), Reform 19%, Liberal Democrat 12% (+1), Greens 4%
One or two obvious trends but among 18-24 year olds there was a swing TO the Conservatives from Labour of 3.5%, among 25-34 year olds it was a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 6.5%, at 35-44 it was 9.5%, at 45-54 16%, at 55-64 13.5% and among 65+ also 13.5%
Duopoly (Con-Lab combined vote) 46%, 57%, 58%, 58%, 59% and 64% among the age groups.
A lot to chew over in the numbers provided and one or two myths can be dispelled.
Turnout helped the Conservatives salvage something from the wreckage as 73% voted in the strongest Conservative group and only 37% in the weakest. Labour's vote share impacted by abstentions and weaknes sin the 18-34 age group.
I think that Youtube and Facebook are now worried about people they cancel taking an audience to Twitter and Rumble, which in most cases should be seen as a good thing.