@Farooq 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 145 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 66 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 45 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 320 5. Reform lose their deposit? 320 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 41,100 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 25,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 29 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 2,300 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 0
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 74 14. Seats will Labour win? 490 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 65 16. Seats will the SNP win? 22 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 5 18. Seats will DUP win? 5 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 65
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 18 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 34 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 31 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 31 25. Will Speaker get? 88
I'm surprised by some of that - the EU clearly was a big issue for you for a long time. I know your position, but hadn't realised how important it was - or were they safe seats so you felt free to express a view on EU without e.g. wanting that party to win? TBF, that's the case with my Green votes below - I'd not want them in government other than - maybe - as a minority part of coalition!
FWIW, me:
2001 I honestly can't recall, either Tory or LD, maybe LD but both I think would have been possibilities 2005 LD and they won the seat from Lab (Cardiff Central) 2010 LD. I thought it was safe for Lab (Southampton Itchen). Ended up super close and Lab sneaked home, but I would have voted tactically for Lab, I think, if I'd known (my preferred outcome was Lib-Lab coalition) 2015 Lab. Safe seat (York C) anyway and I was torn, but I was against the chaos of a pointless (as I thought the result was not in doubt) EU ref, so ended up Lab 2017 Green (safe Tory seat, Selby & Ainsty, so I voted to express support for Green Crap) 2019 Green, again, I think - still safe Tory seat. The LD cancel Brexit pledge (without a second ref) put me off voting for them, I just found it wrong democratically and dangerous to suggest overturning the referendum without a second ref 2023 By-election S&A - Lab, they were in with a shout and it was an anti-Tory vote 2024 Lab - similar reasons, although it's sure safe this time, but the new MP has impressed fairly well so far, been very visible and talking to everyone
So, I'm a natural LD who hasn't actually voted LD in a general election for ~14 years. Make of that what you will.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
Empty suit and he's shown it in this campaign. He's just against an emptier one. His refusal to offer any vision is costing him time off any honeymoon.
I am praying that translates into a LAB > REF surge. Unlikely, but a man can dream
You can get 22/1 on Reform in Truss seat with bet365 *buffs nails*
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
Morning, Malky! Still sunny if windy here on the east side.
Morning Carnyx, windy here also and alternating sun/chucking it down , just what is expected in school holidays. Have had to use heating a few times recently it has been so bleak, been shocking weather so far.
Not quite that bad, heating not on at all here for a couple of weeks, but I was glad to go out just now for a walk in pullover and waterproof to catch some sun and warm up. Annd to check on the pond. Pleased to see that the local froglets and toadlets have completed their migratioon from the water, though I suppose their postasl votes will be all over the place. Glad to have helped by ferrying lost mummy and daddy amphibians to the pond earlier this year under Mrs C 's instructions.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
I’m not a fan so can’t be objective, but the slobbering enthusiasm with which Team Starmer has welcomed the Sun endorsement doesn’t seem have gone down well. Usual suspects etc but it may have a wider impact with lefties who have hitherto ignored the idealistic whispers in their head.
On Rishi Sunak's seat, remember in the York and North Yorkshire Mayoral election, the Conservatives won the North Yorkshire part of the area. It was only by a few thousand votes and was outnumbered by the York majority for Labour, but the county actually stayed blue.
But, nor was there a Reform candidate… in this part of the neighbouring constituency, North Craven, many of the former Tory activists are virulently pro-Reform at least in their Twittering…
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
Tewkesbury: I've backed Cons at 5/6 (Bet365).
I already hold bets on LDs at 20/1 and 9/2, so happy days.
Great stuff.
As a matter of interest, where did you get the 20s? I never saw that. That's an astonishing price for a constituency where the LDs performed well at the recent Locals.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
Surely a lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a good thing with regard to the longevity of their government. It means that people have no great expectations to be dashed and Labour can only really surprise on the upside.
I think it means that Labour will not receive the benefit of the doubt for as many mistakes that they make as otherwise.
They do get to blame things on the Tories for a fair while though. Ten years or thereabouts seems to be the going rate.
Perhaps. I am expecting the public to be impatient, but perhaps they are looking forward to being able to ignore politics for a few years, and so Labour will get a free pass on that basis.
Labour will get to play the "we are trying to fix the mess the Tories left" for a good while. I seem to recall even Gordon Broon PM was doing it after a decade and the Tories have not been shy themselves in referring back to the GFC.
It does feel different to 1997. There was a much more genuine enthusiasm for Blair than there is for Starmer. The country was in a pretty decent shape in 1997 too - you couldn't say that it was the economic position in 1997 that lost it (although events previously in the parliament were a key factor).
Whatever. Its going to be nice to have a different set of liars lying to us on the TV.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
I’m not a fan so can’t be objective, but the slobbering enthusiasm with which Team Starmer has welcomed the Sun endorsement doesn’t seem have gone down well. Usual suspects etc but it may have a wider impact with lefties who have hitherto ignored the idealistic whispers in their head.
It's very daft given that the endorsement is meaningless in votes gained but really pisses off a lot of people. Complacency and a bit of arrogance creeping in.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
I have that as one of my fun money picks at about a £20 stake.
At the risk of damaging my non-existent PB-credibility-fu, where would one lay it off?
I can see it on PBX or another exchange in chunks of about £1, or backing the alternative. Do we have other options?
For that amount you are probably best off finding somebody you know to take the other side. If you can't find anyone drop me an email - arklebar@gmail.com and I'll give you the quoted odds.
I assume you will want the 8/13 to cover the score you had on the LD? (What odds did you get on him, btw? I got some at 7s,but mostly he was 9/2 until a few days ago.)
I'm on for £25 at 4s, actually at BFX (I'd forgotten it was there until I checked). So to be offered a Cash-Out would be another option - available but I'm not being offered one, perhaps it is too small.
Just off to vote and I'll check back in afterwards.
It's the fun money, so any winnings will go to Wheels for Wellbeing, my favourite small and effective charity.
If the Greens get anywhere near the 7% they seem to be averaging in polls that will be a huge turnup for the books. They never get more than about 3% at generals. On the other side if Reform get anything like mid to high teens then we will surely have the highest combined vote share for angry edge-case parties.
In this context, and with major two party votes collapsing to the lowest ever, a Lib Dem vote share of 11 or 12% really isn't very impressive. The numbers suggest a degree of revolutionary ferment out there which I'd really not picked up before the campaign. It seemed rather that the public were keen on a period of no-drama competent governance after the chaos of the last 7 years. It's also rather out of kilter with polling on the main issues: economy, inflation, NHS etc. with immigration fairly high but not at the top, and topics like Gaza way down.
It's clear that Labour has lost votes on its left flank to the Greens, so it would be a surprise if the overall Green vote share was not up. Where it is up is what matters. I suspect that it will mainly be in very safe, big city, Labour seats where, for now at least, it can do little harm. Whether the same voters would stick with the Greens if this election looked close is a different matter.
I suspect the Green vote this time may be the most inefficient of all parties winning seats, possibly even more than Reform if the latter manage to bag 6 or 7 of their own. 3 or 4% per seat potentially. Vs more than 10 seats per 1% for Labour.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
@Cookie would you vote to pay 9% more tax? Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
I saw that polling about voters who would say they'd they be happy to pay more in tax if they knew it went to the NHS etc. It was a pleasant read to see that the idea we are all individuals fighting over resources and there is no such thing as society is more pessimistic than what most people actually feel.
I do feel that we as a body politic could learn something from our Scandi neighbours - it often seems like they view taxation for services as a baseline good and have been less infected by the notion that "scroungers" are "taking advantage" of the system. As someone who earns, after tax, roughly £2k a month - seeing that go down by around £100 a month for the safety of knowing the investment will go into NHS, public transport, public housing, sustainable energy and infrastructure etc. would be a no brainer for me.
Did you look at the details of that polling?
Only a small fraction of people were willing to pay more than an extra £100, a year, in tax for the NHS. An extra £100 per person in work is £3.3bn in extra tax revenue. The deficit is over £100bn.
I mean 44% wanted tax increases; which given the narrative was more than I expected. I think the issue is a bit chicken and egg - people in the UK resent paying taxes because the services feel bad. Whereas if we had good services, I think people wouldn't resent the cost as much. That may mean improving services and then increasing taxes, to put the carrot before the pain, but we should still do it.
Again, material needs are what people are finding hard to meet. And that includes their health needs - with huge waits for the GP and A&Es crumbling, significant improvement in our healthcare would likely see a lot of people feeling their tax money goes further.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
Empty suit and he's shown it in this campaign. He's just against an emptier one. His refusal to offer any vision is costing him time off any honeymoon.
I am praying that translates into a LAB > REF surge. Unlikely, but a man can dream
You can get 22/1 on Reform in Truss seat with bet365 *buffs nails*
I know it isn't their bag but Reform UK have no organisation here and have not even managed to get a leaflet delivered through the post. I have no idee who their candidate even is. Also the anti-Truss but right wing vote is very split betweeb the Nigel Fan Club and the respected local independent Bagge. Now he has been active campaigning, getting poaters out, leafleting, etc.
I like TLDR (the youtube channel, not the concept) but in cases like this they cannot have insider knowledge and so are reduced to repeating polls and adding "gut feeling". It's a bit rude of me to characterise them such, but I'm annoyed by the rise of podcasts - which just means two or more people talking bollocks and getting paid for it - and prefer scripted lectures designed to be delivered to an audience.
Yes and no. I can recommend "We have Ways" with Al Murray and Jim Holland. Holland is probably the best modern writer on WW2, and has started to change the narrative a bit on certain things. Al Murray is now a published author (Command) and has an extensive knowledge of his subject. They often have extremely knowledgeble guests and the pods are fascinating.
My mother just voted Labour for the first time ever - loyal tory voter in every general election since 1983. For her it was Truss the final factor, destroyed the Tory record for economic competence, and Sunak hasn't been able to improve on that. Dad still a tory though.
Yes, my mum switched Con > Lab - Liz Truss, the D-Day exit and the pressing need to get rid of George Galloway all factors.
Hopefully there’s plenty of tactical votes for Lab in Galloway’s seat.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
I have that as one of my fun money picks at about a £20 stake.
At the risk of damaging my non-existent PB-credibility-fu, where would one lay it off?
I can see it on PBX or another exchange in chunks of about £1, or backing the alternative. Do we have other options?
For that amount you are probably best off finding somebody you know to take the other side. If you can't find anyone drop me an email - arklebar@gmail.com and I'll give you the quoted odds.
I assume you will want the 8/13 to cover the score you had on the LD? (What odds did you get on him, btw? I got some at 7s,but mostly he was 9/2 until a few days ago.)
I'm on for £25 at 4s, actually at BFX (I'd forgotten it was there until I checked). So to be offered a Cash-Out would be another option - available but I'm not being offered one, perhaps it is too small.
Just off to vote and I'll check back in afterwards.
It's the fun money, so any winnings will go to Wheels for Wellbeing, my favourite small and effective charity.
OK, Matt.
Send me particulars for WfW please and I will make a small donation.
To all my Republican friends who are enjoying the Democratic Party being in meltdown because they’ve realized their nominee has huge problems: they’re doing what the Republican Party should be doing. https://x.com/prchovanec/status/1808697754182459798
Yes and no.
If the Republican Party actually cared about democracy - yes, of course. If they had any moral qualms - indeed.
But the GOP, and many of their voters, don't care. They are extremely authoritarian, hold massive (mostly imagined) grievances, and have no problem using their power for anti-small d democratic ends. You need only look at the courts. As soon as McConnell got control of the senate, judicial confirmations came to a crashing halt. Not only did it go down to the lowest amount in history, but it was lower than the combined amount for almost all presidents. They blocked the nomination of a Supreme Court justice (as it was so close to an election) and then immediately did the same thing when they had a chance - because they don't have scruples. They planned for over 40 years, creating a judicial pipeline for extremely right wing judges via the creation of the Federalist Society, and where the opportunity came to create a huge backlog of vacancies, they did that and then filled it when they had power; with a huge flurry of confirmations which included some of the most poorly qualified judges to be on the bench in US history. So their anti-small d democratic antics worked for them.
They feel the same way about this new SCOTUS ruling. It will never apply to a Democratic President, and it will be a shield for any GOP President. The POTUS apparently cannot forgive student debt, but can or
You do know that people pay no attention to spoiled ballots? They can be a moment of humour during the count, but they are a terrible way of sending a message.
Question: How many Council by-elections are happening today?
(Spotted over on Lib Dem Voice.)
60, Britain elects has a summary of them all
Technically 61 seats in 60 by-elections if you include 2 non-party in City of London. There is 1 Green defence, 2 Ind, 6 LD, 13 Con, and 36 Lab ( including a number where the former councillor is expecting to be elected as an MP).
You do know that people pay no attention to spoiled ballots? They can be a moment of humour during the count, but they are a terrible way of sending a message.
raises an interesting point - for those of us (like myself) who really don't wish to vote for any of the prospective candidates but believe a vote is an important right and duty... what should we do?
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
You mean relative poverty on whatever the current definition is.
Not actual poverty.
If all the rich people left the country then 'poverty' would fall but actual poverty would increase.
True - but I think relative poverty is the most appropriate measure - if it wasn’t why would we have the triple lock for pensioners?
Also whenever I get this correction all i hear in my head is “And the union workhouses?… are they still in operation?”
Well if you want to consider what the government spends on social protection as the modern 'union workhouses' there are £371bn of them this year.
Under this government spending £250k per head per year to look after some children with SEND in local authority care is an unexceptional event.
Which is, in some ways, fairly unsurprising when you think that we worked out on PB that the cost of employing *one* person 24/7/365 on minimum wage was £132k per year.
You do know that people pay no attention to spoiled ballots? They can be a moment of humour during the count, but they are a terrible way of sending a message.
raises an interesting point - for those of us (like myself) who really don't wish to vote for any of the prospective candidates but believe a vote is an important right and duty... what should we do?
Spoiled ballots are counted. That matters.
And it is not primarily meant a way of sending a message. I believe it is my public duty to get off my backside and vote. But if no one deserves my vote - as is the case at this election - then spoiling my ballot us the only way to fulfill that public duty and at the same time make it clear I don't support any of them.
Comments
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 145
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 66
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 45
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 320
5. Reform lose their deposit? 320
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 41,100
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 25,000
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 29
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 2,300
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 0
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 74
14. Seats will Labour win? 490
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 65
16. Seats will the SNP win? 22
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 5
18. Seats will DUP win? 5
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 65
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 18
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 14
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 34
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 31
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 31
25. Will Speaker get? 88
FWIW, me:
2001 I honestly can't recall, either Tory or LD, maybe LD but both I think would have been possibilities
2005 LD and they won the seat from Lab (Cardiff Central)
2010 LD. I thought it was safe for Lab (Southampton Itchen). Ended up super close and Lab sneaked home, but I would have voted tactically for Lab, I think, if I'd known (my preferred outcome was Lib-Lab coalition)
2015 Lab. Safe seat (York C) anyway and I was torn, but I was against the chaos of a pointless (as I thought the result was not in doubt) EU ref, so ended up Lab
2017 Green (safe Tory seat, Selby & Ainsty, so I voted to express support for Green Crap)
2019 Green, again, I think - still safe Tory seat. The LD cancel Brexit pledge (without a second ref) put me off voting for them, I just found it wrong democratically and dangerous to suggest overturning the referendum without a second ref
2023 By-election S&A - Lab, they were in with a shout and it was an anti-Tory vote
2024 Lab - similar reasons, although it's sure safe this time, but the new MP has impressed fairly well so far, been very visible and talking to everyone
So, I'm a natural LD who hasn't actually voted LD in a general election for ~14 years. Make of that what you will.
Dave, Tone, and Maggie all had better ratings than Starmer when they took power.
*warm feeling in heart*
Is to loathe, loathe, loathe him....
Maybe the Ming vase strategy was pants? Cuz he's certainly going to need to show he can juggle 9 Ming vases at once as PM.
As a matter of interest, where did you get the 20s? I never saw that. That's an astonishing price for a constituency where the LDs performed well at the recent Locals.
NEW THREAD
It does feel different to 1997. There was a much more genuine enthusiasm for Blair than there is for Starmer. The country was in a pretty decent shape in 1997 too - you couldn't say that it was the economic position in 1997 that lost it (although events previously in the parliament were a key factor).
Whatever. Its going to be nice to have a different set of liars lying to us on the TV.
From previous election coverage, who do PBers think will have the quickest results?
Much as I'd enjoy watching Sturgeon chewing wasps all evening IIRC SKY were quickest off the mark last time?
Just off to vote and I'll check back in afterwards.
It's the fun money, so any winnings will go to Wheels for Wellbeing, my favourite small and effective charity.
Again, material needs are what people are finding hard to meet. And that includes their health needs - with huge waits for the GP and A&Es crumbling, significant improvement in our healthcare would likely see a lot of people feeling their tax money goes further.
22/1 still seems long tho!
Send me particulars for WfW please and I will make a small donation.
If the Republican Party actually cared about democracy - yes, of course. If they had any moral qualms - indeed.
But the GOP, and many of their voters, don't care. They are extremely authoritarian, hold massive (mostly imagined) grievances, and have no problem using their power for anti-small d democratic ends. You need only look at the courts. As soon as McConnell got control of the senate, judicial confirmations came to a crashing halt. Not only did it go down to the lowest amount in history, but it was lower than the combined amount for almost all presidents. They blocked the nomination of a Supreme Court justice (as it was so close to an election) and then immediately did the same thing when they had a chance - because they don't have scruples. They planned for over 40 years, creating a judicial pipeline for extremely right wing judges via the creation of the Federalist Society, and where the opportunity came to create a huge backlog of vacancies, they did that and then filled it when they had power; with a huge flurry of confirmations which included some of the most poorly qualified judges to be on the bench in US history. So their anti-small d democratic antics worked for them.
They feel the same way about this new SCOTUS ruling. It will never apply to a Democratic President, and it will be a shield for any GOP President. The POTUS apparently cannot forgive student debt, but can or
Under this government spending £250k per head per year to look after some children with SEND in local authority care is an unexceptional event.
Which is, in some ways, fairly unsurprising when you think that we worked out on PB that the cost of employing *one* person 24/7/365 on minimum wage was £132k per year.
And it is not primarily meant a way of sending a message. I believe it is my public duty to get off my backside and vote. But if no one deserves my vote - as is the case at this election - then spoiling my ballot us the only way to fulfill that public duty and at the same time make it clear I don't support any of them.