I don't think I understand the spreadsheet linked to in the header. It doesn't seem to have all the constituencies on there. E.g. I can't see ANME.
Row 528 on the final sheet
OHHH! I thought the different links in the header were for the same spreadsheet but different sheets. Got it now, thanks.
The final spreadsheet does contain all the results, but there's no live update in it to the results that the first two should pull in. Having all the results try to pull in in one spreadsheet would just make the whole lot fall over.
Ok, thanks. What I'm after is a table of all the results, every single candidate (so all the independents listed separately, not grouped into "other").
If anyone knows of such a source that'll be updated through the night, I'd be very grateful. I'll save me the data entry for the prediction competition and you'll all get the results faster.
Column H in tab "Democracy club 3" should update with that info on all three spreadsheets.
I make it 2 days, or maybe 2 nights and one day, no wait - 2 days and 1 night until the exit polls. I think.
Friday evening to Sunday morning=3 days and 3 nights. Based on the Word of God.
Matthew 12:40: “For just as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of the great fish, so will the Son of Man be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth.”
I live in a three-way marginal (Con (incumbent), Lab, Lib Dem). I've just voted LD (I don't think I've voted Conservative since 2017...), so here's the scores on the door, leaflet-wise.
Lib Dem: 6 Lots of national boilerplate stuff; little of direct relevance to the constituency. A heaven for bar chart lovers. One personalised leaflet that *may* be handwritten, but was probably printed to look so (and quite well, too). Disappointing local issues not mentioned more.
Con: 4 Does have mention of 'Conservatives'. All about local issues and what he (the current MP) has done for the area.
Labour: 2 Candidate not local: says she will "make the constituency her home.". Nothing about local issues in either leaflet. Uninspiring.
Independent: 1 Good leaflet, lot of info about him; lots about his stance on local issues. I seriously considered voting for him.
Party of women: 1 A small leaflet, nothing about local issues. Only distinctive feature is the name/picture of the candidate and the constituency.
Green: 1 Inside, boilerplate national, outside local issues. But a few good mentions of issues that matter locally, e.g. East-West Rail
TBF, the Cons leaflets seemed much less boilerplate and in tune with the issues facing the constituency. Labour seemed to be a typical parachuted-in candidate with zero local interest; the Lib Dem disappointingly uninterested in local issues.
But I couldn't vote Conservative...
(The Lib Dem teller outside the cricket pavilion (our polling station) said there had been fifty people so far, and it was much slower than he expected. I might go around the other polling stations in the town later to see if I can gain any intel from those...)
I forgot Reform: 1 big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Should that come to pass when the exit poll is delivered the first five minutes of the BBC broadcast will sound like Jane Birkin's Je t'aime ... moi non plus.
Re-posted from the previous thread after I was cut-off in my prime after less than a minute!
It's slightly disconcerting that there's a significant difference between the number of seats allocated by YouGov, based on its own final election poll for 'The Times' and the number of seats allocated by the time-honoured ElectoralCalculus which specialises in producing their own seat calculations, based, we have to presume, on identical information.
In this instance, YouGov calculates that Labour will win 431 seats compred with EC's 458 seats, a difference of 27 seats. In terms of Tory seats,YouGov comes up with a total of 102 seats, whereas EC calculates the Blue Team's tally as being 75 seats. Again an equal and opposite difference of 27 seats, which is sort of reassuring insofar as it goes. Obviously the two calculations of seat numbers are based on different statistical models and therefore some difference in their totals was only to be expected. However a difference of 27 seats does seem quite significant, especially if one doubles it to 54 seats in arriving at the impact on the overall majority involved.
Thank goodness no money is involved here as a result of such a discrepancy ... Oh wait!
Having a stab at this:
YouGov's is an MRP, which if I understand it correctly polls a lot of people, compares their VI to their demographic, then determines a %age outcome for each seat based on that seat's demographic mix.
EC OTOH feeds the GB-wide VI into a magic box*, turns the handle, and out pops a seat prediction.
It's therefore more surprising that they are in way close, than that they differ a bit.
If anyone else knows knows better/more, please chip in.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
You are talking nonsense and maybe you will believe the Guardian
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”
None of that quote says that the WG originated the bill. Simply that it is being brought in as a result of a vote in the Senedd.
You're doing the Welsh equivalent of claiming that the SNP government brought in the bill for the Edinburgh trams.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
100 to 149 has moved slightly ahead of 50 to 99 seats (Con) on Betfair and over 100 now favoured on the over/under. Nearer 100 than 150 though looking at price on 150 to 199
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
It would be interesting if all these drops. in Labour support are reflected in the raw data or if they are convenient methodology adjustments to ensure saved faces.
Although if that were the case you would have thought they would bump the Tories up to 30 too.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
Incredible how routine the sub-20s are for then Tories. I still feel they are being somehow understated, but am running out of evidential basis for it.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
Trying to reply to someone and vanilla's gone mental - telling me the body of the post on 1 character too short and I cannot sort it - so this post is the probably the fruitless attempt at clearing whatever gremlin has infected my tech...
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
I've tried using the libraries recently, problem is that people no longer respect that libraries should be quiet.
Use EB Green tape - Duct tape of the Gods.
EDIT: "Inclusion"... The local library had a quiet room with computers for kids to study in. You can imagine the status of kids who don't have a space to study at home. Due to problems with vandalism etc, they introduced (free) key cards to the room. They blocked the kids who like stealing the computers, taking drugs and playing music loudly and punching the other kids. The council got upset, because this wasn't inclusive.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
I mean this election hasn't had the usual squeeze narrative - it seems to have been accepted that Labour are going to get a majority (and likely a large one), so people can vote non tactically in a lot more seats. We're also really benefitting from Labour pissing off ethnic minority voters - Yougov had the polling below that shows us really overperforming compared to previous elections.
It will be interesting to see if there are many places we come second or a reasonable third. In a world where the Tories are greatly diminished and Labour are the "centre right" party (which is what Starmer is promising to be), there is a lot of space for the Greens to grow.
Trying to reply to someone and vanilla's gone mental - telling me the body of the post on 1 character too short and I cannot sort it - so this post is the probably the fruitless attempt at clearing whatever gremlin has infected my tech...
MAybe a stray less-than or greater-than character?
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
Yikes. But not random.
Yes, it was obviously politically motivated. I do feel that attacks on politicians, canvassers etc (of whatever political hue), should be prosecuted especially harshly given that they are attacks on democracy itself as well as on the person.
Was the attack political though? It seems a bit odd to have a gang attack family members of someone who'd be lucky to save his deposit.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
The Brexiters will be a lot less scary defeated, discredited, and with another cohort of their supporters dead.
I don't think I understand the spreadsheet linked to in the header. It doesn't seem to have all the constituencies on there. E.g. I can't see ANME.
Row 528 on the final sheet
OHHH! I thought the different links in the header were for the same spreadsheet but different sheets. Got it now, thanks.
The final spreadsheet does contain all the results, but there's no live update in it to the results that the first two should pull in. Having all the results try to pull in in one spreadsheet would just make the whole lot fall over.
Ok, thanks. What I'm after is a table of all the results, every single candidate (so all the independents listed separately, not grouped into "other").
If anyone knows of such a source that'll be updated through the night, I'd be very grateful. I'll save me the data entry for the prediction competition and you'll all get the results faster.
Column H in tab "Democracy club 3" should update with that info on all three spreadsheets.
So the third (full) sheet will have all the candidates and their votes filled in as time goes on then? If so, perfect and thank you so much for sharing.
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
Nor does imply any late enthusiasm for the Tories.
Labour home and dry probably leading to some voters saying why bother. #lowturnout
I genuinely think that the only danger to labour achieving their 'super' majority is apathy and the polls showing a foregone conclusion
Hence my £10 at 20: on Lab Minority Govt
Terrible odds. You could, for example lay Lab Majority at BF at 1.03, which would cover the other options where Lab doesn't get a majority (eg coalitions), or back Lab Minority govt at 70 at BF.
Trying to reply to someone and vanilla's gone mental - telling me the body of the post on 1 character too short and I cannot sort it - so this post is the probably the fruitless attempt at clearing whatever gremlin has infected my tech...
If the post you're replying to has the less than symbol in it, then Vanilla doesn't like that. Oddly enough its OK to post it in your own post, but not to quote it.
If that's the glitch, I typically replace the symbol with the words less than, dislike changing what someone else has written but it doesn't change the meaning and simply means Vanilla doesn't mistake what they wrote for code.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I'm just off with the dog to cast a tactical Green
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
If two parties tie on MPs (LDs and Tories seem very close here) - which party becomes the Official Opposition? In the case of such a thing do you think there would be tactical defections to try and make one party larger? I think Labour would prefer a Tory Opposition - the LDs will likely hit Labour where they are weak (with their base) whereas the Tories will do more culture war shit and likely be infighting for a while.
I live in a three-way marginal (Con (incumbent), Lab, Lib Dem). I've just voted LD (I don't think I've voted Conservative since 2017...), so here's the scores on the door, leaflet-wise.
Lib Dem: 6 Lots of national boilerplate stuff; little of direct relevance to the constituency. A heaven for bar chart lovers. One personalised leaflet that *may* be handwritten, but was probably printed to look so (and quite well, too). Disappointing local issues not mentioned more.
Con: 4 Does have mention of 'Conservatives'. All about local issues and what he (the current MP) has done for the area.
Labour: 2 Candidate not local: says she will "make the constituency her home.". Nothing about local issues in either leaflet. Uninspiring.
Independent: 1 Good leaflet, lot of info about him; lots about his stance on local issues. I seriously considered voting for him.
Party of women: 1 A small leaflet, nothing about local issues. Only distinctive feature is the name/picture of the candidate and the constituency.
Green: 1 Inside, boilerplate national, outside local issues. But a few good mentions of issues that matter locally, e.g. East-West Rail
TBF, the Cons leaflets seemed much less boilerplate and in tune with the issues facing the constituency. Labour seemed to be a typical parachuted-in candidate with zero local interest; the Lib Dem disappointingly uninterested in local issues.
But I couldn't vote Conservative...
(The Lib Dem teller outside the cricket pavilion (our polling station) said there had been fifty people so far, and it was much slower than he expected. I might go around the other polling stations in the town later to see if I can gain any intel from those...)
I forgot Reform: 1 big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
You are talking nonsense and maybe you will believe the Guardian
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”
None of that quote says that the WG originated the bill. Simply that it is being brought in as a result of a vote in the Senedd.
You're doing the Welsh equivalent of claiming that the SNP government brought in the bill for the Edinburgh trams.
Isn't attempting to assign responsibility for the trams regraded as criminal slander?
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Yes, I heard that Aberdeenshire Council cuts are causing a lot of upset. Do you think it will affect how people vote? BTW Good luck!
Library fact: did you know when volunteers step in to run libraries on behalf of local authorities, they no longer have to pay into the PLR (Public Lending Right pool) and so authors lose any income from borrowed books.
Average author earnings dropped 11% in real terms between 2019 and 2021 and that was within a drop of 60% in real terms since 2006.
The BBC can't report any such thing until the polls close, anyway. So not fooled, I'm afraid.
Please, no more jokes. This is a betting site and by the sound of it, several PBers will have had their judgement impaired by Aldi's second best Scotch whisky.
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
Apologies my unpronounceable friend, I mean their politicians rather than their voters. Is 148grss Green too?
My top 10 hopes for the next 24 hours, in order of possibility:
1. Labour majority. 2. Tories sub 200. 3. Greens >2 seats. 4. SNP <20 seats. 5. JRM loses his seat. 6. Reform <4 seats. 7. Farage fails to win Clacton. 8. LDs win more seats than the Tories. 9. Sunak loses his seat. 10. My constituency North Dorset goes LD
If none of those happen: I despair of politics. Forever. 1 to 3 = Ok, I'll take that - hardly stellar but pretty good given 2019. 4 to 7 = A great night - pop the fizz! 8 = Brilliant! Historic! Seismic! 9 to 10 = Beyond words.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I'm just off with the dog to cast a tactical Green
Do remember your dog will require photo ID to vote. Kennel Club membership card is acceptable.
I've given my franchise a damn good workout after collecting a leaflet on behalf of the independent candidate 100 yards or so from the polling station. Voting was not brisk, which is just as well as the election workers were inadequately trained first-timers who could not find my name on the list.
There are two rough sleepers in the subway and half the Metropolitan Police Force in McDonalds.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I'm just off with the dog to cast a tactical Green
Do remember your dog will require photo ID to vote. Kennel Club membership card is acceptable.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
The Brexiters will be a lot less scary defeated, discredited, and with another cohort of their supporters dead.
All those people in interminable queues at airports instead of murmuring 'f*cking Tory Brexiteers' will be wishing for Starmers rapid demise.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
Apologies my unpronounceable friend, I mean their politicians rather than their voters. Is 148grss Green too?
Yes - but not a politician; I have occasionally been staff and often a volunteer / activist.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
If two parties tie on MPs (LDs and Tories seem very close here) - which party becomes the Official Opposition? In the case of such a thing do you think there would be tactical defections to try and make one party larger? I think Labour would prefer a Tory Opposition - the LDs will likely hit Labour where they are weak (with their base) whereas the Tories will do more culture war shit and likely be infighting for a while.
APNI would take the LD whip - they do in the Lords.
Good luck to any posters or lurkers who are standing today even if I think you are evil for not being on my side.
Thanks to anyone who has been out campaigning and door knocking.
All these people are vital and work largely selflessly in a way I would be far too lazy to and wouldn’t want to risk my life being delved into.
Tonight and tomorrow are going to be interesting, fun, angering, disappointing, brilliant, history making and then largely everyone will settle down to normal life with some tweaks here and there which is one of the great and lucky things about this country as we change governments without much uproar and very very little violence.
I was listening to someone on the radio this morning I was at school with who has written a book about dying well. It’s likely his last week alive this week and his positivity about life and death is remarkable. It really did put the small differences into perspective. I think of the last time I saw him a year ago or so and we were laughing at a bar about some disgraceful behaviour at school we had enjoyed and hearing this amazing man talk so well about life nearly broke my four year avoidance of crying.
So if you get what you want tonight enjoy it, if you don’t then keep going until the wheel turns and frankly enjoy it all.
No reversal of Brexit in Starmer's lifetime is simply realistic. There is no way the EU will accept an application to rejoin on any terms that the UK could consider.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
You are talking nonsense and maybe you will believe the Guardian
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”
None of that quote says that the WG originated the bill. Simply that it is being brought in as a result of a vote in the Senedd.
You're doing the Welsh equivalent of claiming that the SNP government brought in the bill for the Edinburgh trams.
Isn't attempting to assign responsibility for the trams regraded as criminal slander?
I don't know but falsly claiming "incitement of trains being in streets" is
Given how far most people are from a polling station, and the state of British roads, that must have been some epic acceleration and good brakes.
Our consistently criminal Deputy Council Leader Tom Hollis * does that.
He reached 65mph in about 150m of Traffic Calmed High Street from a 90 degree bend in his Land Drover Effete 'on the way home from a night at the bingo'.
Didn't notice that he was being followed by an unmarked police car, the bellend !
* No defamation, it is all in the Courts and reported in the Chad.
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
It does suggest that IPSOS might be picking up a late Lab->SNP swing in Scotland though.
There actually was a little queue when I arrived to vote, which is unusual. Doesn't mean anything, just random variance.
I voted Labour in the end. I'm not very impressed by their manifesto and I received little from them locally, but the LDs also didn't bother. And whilst it won't make much difference if I vote LD or Lab, given I do think Starmer should be PM I feel I should put my vote where my mouth is to share in the outcome if things go bad
Same reason I voted Tory in 2017 really.
Plus I've never voted Labour before and given polls this might be the only time they are ever relevant locally.
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
Nor does imply any late enthusiasm for the Tories.
Labour home and dry probably leading to some voters saying why bother. #lowturnout
I genuinely think that the only danger to labour achieving their 'super' majority is apathy and the polls showing a foregone conclusion
Hence my £10 at 20: on Lab Minority Govt
Terrible odds. You could, for example lay Lab Majority at BF at 1.03, which would cover the other options where Lab doesn't get a majority (eg coalitions), or back Lab Minority govt at 70 at BF.
Yep. Complete mug punter bet.
Why take those odds? I’ve said this to him repeatedly. It makes no sense on any level.
No, Labour have failed to offer anything remotely inspiring so their support for 'change' is lukewarm at best
Neither main party has, being content to campaign against the other. Labour's most positive vision is a fraction of a new teacher in every school, or possibly a whole new teacher in some schools.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
"Would the last Flint-knapper to leave Britain please turn off the lights?"
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
It does suggest that IPSOS might be picking up a late Lab->SNP swing in Scotland though.
Yeah, I'm regretting a couple of bets on Labour in Scotland.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I'm just off with the dog to cast a tactical Green
Where do you intend to cast the poor unfortunate ?
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
No reversal of Brexit in Keir's lifetime. Incredible when over 60% of the country now want it. Perhaps he really will be as tone deaf as some have predicted
The Brexiters will be a lot less scary defeated, discredited, and with another cohort of their supporters dead.
All those people in interminable queues at airports instead of murmuring 'f*cking Tory Brexiteers' will be wishing for Starmers rapid demise.
He said "can't foresee" whcih isn't definitive but it would have been helpful if he'd been considerably more vague
I'm calling bullsh1t on SNP on 6%... they didn't quite get 4% in 2019 and that equated to 45% in Scotland. So they'd need to be on at least two-thirds of the vote north of the border!
It does suggest that IPSOS might be picking up a late Lab->SNP swing in Scotland though.
Yeah, I'm regretting a couple of bets on Labour in Scotland.
I've been bullish on SNP chances throughout. I hope to be wrong.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Comments
Friday evening to Sunday morning=3 days and 3 nights. Based on the Word of God.
Matthew 12:40: “For just as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of the great fish, so will the Son of Man be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth.”
Labour 37% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (nc)
Reform UK 15% (nc)
Lib Dems 11% (nc)
Greens 9% (+2)
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1808774969142186411
Sadly a bit too believable.
Keiran Pedley
@keiranpedley
🚨
@IpsosUK
FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (nc)
Reform UK 15% (nc)
Lib Dems 11% (nc)
Greens 9% (+2)
YouGov's is an MRP, which if I understand it correctly polls a lot of people, compares their VI to their demographic, then determines a %age outcome for each seat based on that seat's demographic mix.
EC OTOH feeds the GB-wide VI into a magic box*, turns the handle, and out pops a seat prediction.
It's therefore more surprising that they are in way close, than that they differ a bit.
If anyone else knows knows better/more, please chip in.
(*well, algorithm)
You're doing the Welsh equivalent of claiming that the SNP government brought in the bill for the Edinburgh trams.
Labour home and dry probably leading to some voters saying why bother. #lowturnout
Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats
Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats
Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats
Reform: 13 per cent, 2 seats
Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats
SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats
Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats
I certainly hope so as I stand to make a decent sum if the Conservatives finish above 150. I'm about to give the Conservatives a very grudging vote.
What a performance. Couldn't bet at Betfred. Online only for NOM.
Same at Hills counter but the machines do the full online range.
A fool and his money etc. etc.
Con 69
Lab 462
LD 71
Ref 7
Green 3
SNP 15
PC 3
Others 20
on that Ipsos.
So not fooled, I'm afraid.
Although if that were the case you would have thought they would bump the Tories up to 30 too.
My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees.
Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
EDIT: "Inclusion"... The local library had a quiet room with computers for kids to study in. You can imagine the status of kids who don't have a space to study at home. Due to problems with vandalism etc, they introduced (free) key cards to the room. They blocked the kids who like stealing the computers, taking drugs and playing music loudly and punching the other kids. The council got upset, because this wasn't inclusive.
It will be interesting to see if there are many places we come second or a reasonable third. In a world where the Tories are greatly diminished and Labour are the "centre right" party (which is what Starmer is promising to be), there is a lot of space for the Greens to grow.
Labour down 5 with ipsos. Are the polls herding?
The source data is https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/elections/parl.blyth-and-ashington.2024-07-04/ which will hopefully update to something like https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/elections/local.coventry.2024-06-20/ when the results are known.
If that's the glitch, I typically replace the symbol with the words less than, dislike changing what someone else has written but it doesn't change the meaning and simply means Vanilla doesn't mistake what they wrote for code.
Average author earnings dropped 11% in real terms between 2019 and 2021 and that was within a drop of 60% in real terms since 2006.
1. Labour majority.
2. Tories sub 200.
3. Greens >2 seats.
4. SNP <20 seats.
5. JRM loses his seat.
6. Reform <4 seats.
7. Farage fails to win Clacton.
8. LDs win more seats than the Tories.
9. Sunak loses his seat.
10. My constituency North Dorset goes LD
If none of those happen: I despair of politics. Forever.
1 to 3 = Ok, I'll take that - hardly stellar but pretty good given 2019.
4 to 7 = A great night - pop the fizz!
8 = Brilliant! Historic! Seismic!
9 to 10 = Beyond words.
Perhaps for the last time, I post:
Labour 400
Conservative 150
LibDem 50
Others 50
Even that broad a target could be well off, there's such a wide range of possibilities.
There are two rough sleepers in the subway and half the Metropolitan Police Force in McDonalds.
Thanks to anyone who has been out campaigning and door knocking.
All these people are vital and work largely selflessly in a way I would be far too lazy to and wouldn’t want to risk my life being delved into.
Tonight and tomorrow are going to be interesting, fun, angering, disappointing, brilliant, history making and then largely everyone will settle down to normal life with some tweaks here and there which is one of the great and lucky things about this country as we change governments without much uproar and very very little violence.
I was listening to someone on the radio this morning I was at school with who has written a book about dying well. It’s likely his last week alive this week and his positivity about life and death is remarkable. It really did put the small differences into perspective. I think of the last time I saw him a year ago or so and we were laughing at a bar about some disgraceful behaviour at school we had enjoyed and hearing this amazing man talk so well about life nearly broke my four year avoidance of crying.
So if you get what you want tonight enjoy it, if you don’t then keep going until the wheel turns and frankly enjoy it all.
And most of all, vote Tory.
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
He reached 65mph in about 150m of Traffic Calmed High Street from a 90 degree bend in his Land Drover Effete 'on the way home from a night at the bingo'.
Didn't notice that he was being followed by an unmarked police car, the bellend !
* No defamation, it is all in the Courts and reported in the Chad.
I voted Labour in the end. I'm not very impressed by their manifesto and I received little from them locally, but the LDs also didn't bother. And whilst it won't make much difference if I vote LD or Lab, given I do think Starmer should be PM I feel I should put my vote where my mouth is to share in the outcome if things go bad
Same reason I voted Tory in 2017 really.
Plus I've never voted Labour before and given polls this might be the only time they are ever relevant locally.
Why take those odds? I’ve said this to him repeatedly. It makes no sense on any level.
No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
If someone bumps into you in a supermarket car park, does it turn on it's cameras and record the dozy driver, for example - as a Tesla would?