It's refreshing to see a celeb who, rather than confessing to wanting world peace or an end to hunger as a child, says they always dreamed of owning a Porsche 911.
Which of course she still doesn’t. It’s a Porsche press car, on loan to her as part of a sponsorship agreement.
I’d also say I always dreamed of a 911, if saying so meant that Porsche loaned me one for free.
can anyone suggest a method of getting BBC-TV coverage overnight in Germany? I have no traditional TV set, just online streaming and I have no VPN. Well I do but a free one where where I can't specify which country I'm in. BBC i-Player is only available in the UK.
I usually just listen to radio for UK news (no location block) and occasionally stream German TV for visual news. But visual coverage of the election would be so much better.
Any suggestions would be great. Thanks.
I should imagine one or more channels will have it on YouTube.
I've just posted and deleted half a dozen links to election news livestreams. Go to YouTube, search for uk general election or some such, then select live.
I think Sky News is available globally on YouTube and is generally better coverage than the BBC anyway.
Anecdotal evidence from my ward, spoke to a Tory canvasser who is actually going to the count, he said its nip and tuck, too close too call, the Tories are defending 15,000 here, I don't know where that would leave the overall Labour majority if they won here, pretty hefty I would imagine
I cannot stay up to watch the results tonight as I have a journey to make early tomorrow.
Do I stay up for the exit poll or go to bed early and wake early hours for most of the declarations..,
Decisions decisions… I am worried about severe exit poll FOMO but imagine if it’s wrong and I miss all the drama and set pieces.
Has to be the declarations and all the 'we are hearing xxxx are seriously worried about xxxxx' drama!
This is another example of Lib Dems having the worst time. Most of our target seats are at the later end of the night, between 4 and 5pm. Labour supporters get to see most of their greatest hits between 3 and 4.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
She should have been told to shut up. No political discussion is allowed inside and immediately around the polling station.
I know, and I almost said something. But I am a town councillor and she and her husband are voters
Anecdotal evidence from my ward, spoke to a Tory canvasser who is actually going to the count, he said its nip and tuck, too close too call, the Tories are defending 15,000 here, I don't know where that would leave the overall Labour majority if they won here, pretty hefty I would imagine
Please say where you are with anecdotes like this ! We're not under broadcast election rules on this forum.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
PtP. Good advice. I am on at 9/2 and I am going to hold my bet. In total I now have 13 consituency bets based on tips here and I will hold onto them all until the Returning Officers return.
Best hopes are
Harrow East Tory @ 4/1 (Sean Fear) Islington NOT Corbyn @ 2/1 (Various) Tewkesbury at 9/2 (PtP)
Good luck to all PB punters! Many thanks to TSE for all his hard work and kind regards to OGH.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
You mean relative poverty on whatever the current definition is.
Not actual poverty.
If all the rich people left the country then 'poverty' would fall but actual poverty would increase.
True - but I think relative poverty is the most appropriate measure - if it wasn’t why would we have the triple lock for pensioners?
Also whenever I get this correction all i hear in my head is “And the union workhouses?… are they still in operation?”
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
Nobody gives a shit about pound notes already.
People absolutely do care about interest rates.
Having our own currency means our own central bank, not whose face is printed on the notes.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
@Cookie would you vote to pay 9% more tax? Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
I saw that polling about voters who would say they'd they be happy to pay more in tax if they knew it went to the NHS etc. It was a pleasant read to see that the idea we are all individuals fighting over resources and there is no such thing as society is more pessimistic than what most people actually feel.
I do feel that we as a body politic could learn something from our Scandi neighbours - it often seems like they view taxation for services as a baseline good and have been less infected by the notion that "scroungers" are "taking advantage" of the system. As someone who earns, after tax, roughly £2k a month - seeing that go down by around £100 a month for the safety of knowing the investment will go into NHS, public transport, public housing, sustainable energy and infrastructure etc. would be a no brainer for me.
Did you look at the details of that polling?
Only a small fraction of people were willing to pay more than an extra £100, a year, in tax for the NHS. An extra £100 per person in work is £3.3bn in extra tax revenue. The deficit is over £100bn.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
I've really been scratching my head on this and come to a conclusion overnight. 2 things:
- Voters seeing this election as a free hit, meaning the voting patterns will be more akin to a PR election than a normal FPTP one - Familiarity increasing - generally leads to increases in approval so long as someone isn't actively disliked
Anecdotal evidence from my ward, spoke to a Tory canvasser who is actually going to the count, he said its nip and tuck, too close too call, the Tories are defending 15,000 here, I don't know where that would leave the overall Labour majority if they won here, pretty hefty I would imagine
If the Tories held everything 15k plus they'd have about 180 to 200 mps Edit - 174!
Down with the Treating Act 1695 and its successors, without which we would all now be blind drunk at the expense of the candidates. Binface misses a trick by not having a repeal in his manifesto.
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Yup - per capita central funding has dropped circa 20% in real terms in the 14 years of Conservative rule. And one assumes demands for council spending (from aging population, etc.) has only increased. Around 40 odd per cent of households with at least one person working are in poverty. Nearly half of children in families with three kids or more are in poverty.
To be sure there are positive sides of the ledger (pensioner poverty has fallen under the Conservatives). But, they are pretty few and far between (the FT weekend did a page of charts a few weeks ago that starkly demonstrated this).
Not sure we’ll get much better from tomorrow. But, I just hope that we get leadership that stops trying to distract us with chat about a “culture war” and actually starts trying to fix the big things that are failing.
You mean relative poverty on whatever the current definition is.
Not actual poverty.
If all the rich people left the country then 'poverty' would fall but actual poverty would increase.
True - but I think relative poverty is the most appropriate measure - if it wasn’t why would we have the triple lock for pensioners?
Also whenever I get this correction all i hear in my head is “And the union workhouses?… are they still in operation?”
Well if you want to consider what the government spends on social protection as the modern 'union workhouses' there are £371bn of them this year.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Are you Isle of Wight West or East ?
East, even though the town wanted to be west
Labour for both I think.
East, I am not so sure. Last time's result and the MRP models say so. But Starmer blocked the local party from choosing a candidate and then relatively late imposed a disabled lesbian trans woman, relatively new to the island (stood in Sutton last time) on the seat, presumably to tick off some boxes for his candidate list, which has split the local Labour Party. On top of which, said candidate is as dull as ditchwater and answers every question in a dull monotone with extracts from the Labour manifesto. And she's a town councillor for Sandown which has the highest council tax on the island having hiked it by 50% in one year (the parish element) not long ago.
There's an active local primary campaign, which has endorsed the local Green candidate, who has a reasonable profile already, as its 'people's champion', and all the straw polls taken after hustings have put her ahead. The island has a reputation for paying more attention to the individual candidates than many seats. My town is covered in Green posters.
I know the local Tory is delighted and thinks the opposition split will see him through the middle. And he may well be right. Although Reform has a lot of support on social media and may also poll strongly, given the local demographic.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
I've really been scratching my head on this and come to a conclusion overnight. 2 things:
- Voters seeing this election as a free hit, meaning the voting patterns will be more akin to a PR election than a normal FPTP one - Familiarity increasing - generally leads to increases in approval so long as someone isn't actively disliked
Thanks Tim, interesting points.
There was some commentary that the approval ratings having been historically a better judge of outcomes, were showing something of a polling miss, although towards Labour doing better not worse. More in line with the MRPs than the normal Westminster VIs, so an interesting one to watch.
Voted. (Penrith and Solway). Steady to brisk, officers (both looked about 12) said they had been quite busy. No queue but arriving, voting and departing was continual. My stubby pencil had come off its string. Met several dogs going and returning, none discussed elections, politics etc, but brisk discussions about bird tables, Wimbledon, weather.
Once again reflect on the stubby pencil being the difference between us and North Korea.
First ever GE vote where seat may change hands. Unlike North Korea.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
Less certainty to vote/forgone conclusion/can lend a vote to the Greens etc if Labour will win anyway?
Not just 'we can vote Green' but 'we can vote Reform'. People are relaxed that the Cons are toast and get to 'waste a vote' without fear. It is the downside of the long-term Lab strategy of safety first
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
Down with the Treating Act 1695 and its successors, without which we would all now be blind drunk at the expense of the candidates. Binface misses a trick by not having a repeal in his manifesto.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
If he wrote “let’s win this” then he would be roundly mocked. If he wrote nothing he would be criticised for having no words of encouragement. At least we see some evidence that he’s in the real world by acknowledging Labour are on for a thumping win.
I cannot stay up to watch the results tonight as I have a journey to make early tomorrow.
Do I stay up for the exit poll or go to bed early and wake early hours for most of the declarations..,
Decisions decisions… I am worried about severe exit poll FOMO but imagine if it’s wrong and I miss all the drama and set pieces.
Go to sleep as early as you can. Not only will you get the most sleep, and put yourself in as good condition for your drive as possible, but you will minimise the time you spend conscious while waiting for the result.
Anecdotal evidence from my ward, spoke to a Tory canvasser who is actually going to the count, he said its nip and tuck, too close too call, the Tories are defending 15,000 here, I don't know where that would leave the overall Labour majority if they won here, pretty hefty I would imagine
If the Tories held everything 15k plus they'd have about 180 to 200 mps Edit - 174!
This does seem to tally more closely with what we'd expect after the locals in May. 175-200 seats. Interesting that this seems to be the tide line in whatever constituency is being anecdoted about.
Anecdotal evidence from my ward, spoke to a Tory canvasser who is actually going to the count, he said its nip and tuck, too close too call, the Tories are defending 15,000 here, I don't know where that would leave the overall Labour majority if they won here, pretty hefty I would imagine
If the Tories held everything 15k plus they'd have about 180 to 200 mps Edit - 174!
I suppose a lot could depend on all these sort of seats, if they hold on it won't be terrible, if they don't, they are in real trouble
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
I'm guessing that would result in a 97/01 type outcome with a few reform/Green sprinkles and more SNP
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
PtP. Good advice. I am on at 9/2 and I am going to hold my bet. In total I now have 13 consituency bets based on tips here and I will hold onto them all until the Returning Officers return.
Best hopes are
Harrow East Tory @ 4/1 (Sean Fear) Islington NOT Corbyn @ 2/1 (Various) Tewkesbury at 9/2 (PtP)
Good luck to all PB punters! Many thanks to TSE for all his hard work and kind regards to OGH.
19/4 for me. I've laid off the stake, and am letting the rest run.
Couple of quid against Corbyn just for the LOLs.
And I second your good wishes for Mike, and thanks to TSE.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
Less certainty to vote/forgone conclusion/can lend a vote to the Greens etc if Labour will win anyway?
Not just 'we can vote Green' but 'we can vote Reform'. People are relaxed that the Cons are toast and get to 'waste a vote' without fear. It is the downside of the long-term Lab strategy of safety first
I absolutely agree with this. Since the overall result seems to be a forgone conclusion, it's quite refreshing to be able to vote for a party you support, rather than against one you dislike.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
If he wrote “let’s win this” then he would be roundly mocked. If he wrote nothing he would be criticised for having no words of encouragement. At least we see some evidence that he’s in the real world by acknowledging Labour are on for a thumping win.
You have to say something positive. “Don’t let the other lot win a landslide” really isn’t that.
Been in. On my amble down a lost student was seeking the polling station so chatted with him for the last couple of minutes of the walk down. I demurred from asking directly of course, but chatted about it being a change election, regrets for Labour's timidity, and local Green prospects. It took a while to find his entry on the register and found out that student halls are alphabetised by hall name not street name.
The polling station had a steady trickle of voters.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
I wonder if Ipsos is picking up a very late swing away from the conservatives here.
If you had to find a rationale for those numbers you might well say that with the main result a foregone conclusion, some who would otherwise vote Con or Labour feel sufficiently liberated to vote for the Party they really like the most.
Are the Greens really going to get 9% . I just can’t see it myself .
Unexpected Green voters are everywhere. My daughter explained the reason to me yesterday: tuition fees. Makes perfect sense really. All the other parties are charging half a generation £50k plus to start adulthood. The Green Party isn't.
Personally I think the Greens are a binch of incoherent batshit crazy extreme culture warriors. But maybe £50k plus is rather more important to people.
There are normal people too. Like, er me, and double-er, Dura Ace. Oh, and triple-er - BJO.
OK, point taken. Any other Green PBers?
I've gone back to voting for losers - my last two GE votes were tactical for the LDs, but because Daisy is going to hold her seat easily, I want to make sure I contribute to our increase in short money.
@Cookie would you vote to pay 9% more tax? Under a proper PR system I'd expect the big winners to be Greens, PC and Reform, big losers Labour and Conservatives with SNP and LDs flat.
I saw that polling about voters who would say they'd they be happy to pay more in tax if they knew it went to the NHS etc. It was a pleasant read to see that the idea we are all individuals fighting over resources and there is no such thing as society is more pessimistic than what most people actually feel.
I do feel that we as a body politic could learn something from our Scandi neighbours - it often seems like they view taxation for services as a baseline good and have been less infected by the notion that "scroungers" are "taking advantage" of the system. As someone who earns, after tax, roughly £2k a month - seeing that go down by around £100 a month for the safety of knowing the investment will go into NHS, public transport, public housing, sustainable energy and infrastructure etc. would be a no brainer for me.
Did you look at the details of that polling?
Only a small fraction of people were willing to pay more than an extra £100, a year, in tax for the NHS. An extra £100 per person in work is £3.3bn in extra tax revenue. The deficit is over £100bn.
Also some people think that small rises in tax lead to much better services, rather than simply standing still.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
The ratings figures are from the full sample, but the headline voting intention figures exclude those who don't know how they will vote.
If the don't knows returns to the Tories then the Labour share in headline voting intention will go down, even if the number of Labour voters stays steady, and ratings for SKS improve on the full sample.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
Has anyone run the projected numbers on that ? It might actually be true.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
Photographing voters at a PS is another no, sadly.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
Realistically, it's all he's got.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
It is extraordinary that incumbents of 14 years have said nothing about what they have achieved in that time.
The Conservative Party have campaigned almost entirely on the failure of the Labour Party over the last 14 years and the next five. It would be interesting if they do get a caning from Reform after their Reformesque social and immigration policy offering.
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
Down with the Treating Act 1695 and its successors, without which we would all now be blind drunk at the expense of the candidates. Binface misses a trick by not having a repeal in his manifesto.
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
The one I thing that will be interesting is how much, if at all, Reform eats into the Labour vote in the Red Wall. I suppose it is possible that Labour could underperform on the vote share but without the Tories benefitting.
Turnout according to my wife was apparently very brisk in the local polling station here in the safe Labour territory of North Lewisham. But it was school run time so perhaps not surprising.
I don't sense much of a Green or Indy surge here. It'll be solid monolithic Labour. A few Palestine flags around but far fewer than equivalent places North of the river.
My mother just voted Labour for the first time ever - loyal tory voter in every general election since 1983. For her it was Truss the final factor, destroyed the Tory record for economic competence, and Sunak hasn't been able to improve on that. Dad still a tory though.
The four polls that matter are out there and the mesage is clear.
Labour 36-38 (Survation are outliers on 41) Cons 19-21 Ref 15-17 (ipsos ae on a low 15 - phone poll?) LD 11-13 (Verian at 13 while they have Lab lowest) G 7-9 (Ipsos have it at 9 - maybe the mirror of the low Reform rating)
Lab lead 15-20 (Verian is lowest but that high LD vote is grim for the Cons. Opinium at 20 looks to have Lab too high).
Even 15% is of course a disastrous result but are the polls wrong? The 18 last polls have the lead between 13 and 20. In the last 19 General Elections the result has landed inside the scope of the final polls 11 times. It was within 1% 6 times more and within 2% once. Only at one GE - 1992 - has that pattern been bucked. All the pollsters whiffed by 7% in 1992.
Con politicians do not look like they did in the last couple of days before 1992.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
Correct on the points. Nevertheless "We're stuffed but we're going to do nothing about it" isn't great rhetoric. Rhetoric matters.
Again, although the Labour lead has dropped it doesn’t really imply it’s down to anything Labour has done.
I'm not sure about that. They're beginning to look like a pretty empty vessel. They're now depending 100% on voters loathing the Tories enough to make it worthwhile voting.
These Suella Braverman photos are going to have their work cutout.
How do you explain SKS's ratings improving throughout the campaign?
He's been personally impressive. Surprisingly so. Which is why it makes no sense with two days to go the first time he sticks his neck out it's to dash the hopes of millions of voters. What's more to say he's not going to do it 'In my lifetime' suggests he doesn't even want to.
Most Labour supporters had hopes that when he got his feet under the table he would start to unravel the mess that is Brexit.
To all my Republican friends who are enjoying the Democratic Party being in meltdown because they’ve realized their nominee has huge problems: they’re doing what the Republican Party should be doing. https://x.com/prchovanec/status/1808697754182459798
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
In Polynesia skirt round the edges. Tahiti and Bora Bora is mid market US honeymooners in bungalows on stilts (but Mo'orea is the best sky dive I have done). The more remote islands are fab. Like the outer Hebrides but with breadfruit. Get the Aranui 5 (basically the ferry but takes cruise passengers) to sign you up for a puff piece.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
If he wrote “let’s win this” then he would be roundly mocked. If he wrote nothing he would be criticised for having no words of encouragement. At least we see some evidence that he’s in the real world by acknowledging Labour are on for a thumping win.
Given that Labour support is drifting because the win is being assumed, you could also argue that it's quite clever, as the most likely way to depress his opponent's tally
Voted. Steady to brisk, officers (both looked about 12) said they had been quite busy. No queue but arriving, voting and departing was continual. My stubby pencil had come off its string. Met several dogs going and returning, none discussed elections, politics etc, but brisk discussions about bird tables, Wimbledon, weather.
Once again reflect on the stubby pencil being the difference between us and North Korea.
First ever GE vote where seat may change hands. Unlike North Korea.
Did any of the dogs give their thoughts on who might win Wimbledon?
All barking for the Raducanu/Murray combination and commenting that the weather is bad even in the deep south Wimbledon(here we generally believe that the south of England is mostly sub-tropical).
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
If he wrote “let’s win this” then he would be roundly mocked. If he wrote nothing he would be criticised for having no words of encouragement. At least we see some evidence that he’s in the real world by acknowledging Labour are on for a thumping win.
You have to say something positive. “Don’t let the other lot win a landslide” really isn’t that.
The classy message would be something like "it's ups to you", "everyone's vote matters" or "may the best man win". But Rishi has spent the last couple of years not doing the classy thing.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
Realistically, it's all he's got.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
It is extraordinary that incumbents of 14 years have said nothing about what they have achieved in that time.
Would you boast about their "achievements"? Food bank dependency from 40k to over 3m Highest tax take for decades Facilitating £bns of fraud Waiting lists >7m Waterway pollution massively increased and for the LDs "Royal Mail privatisation - another manifesto commitment delivered" collapse of the postal service
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
The one I think that will be interesting is how much, if at all, Reform eats into the Labour vote in the Red Wall. I suppose it is possible that Labour could underperform on the vote share but without the Tories benefitting.
There's an interesting new pattern possible IF Reform manage to win a few seats and get some second places to Labour in the East and Redwall - one where we're set up for 3 future political battlegrounds across England:
1. Labour vs Conservative in the M1 and M6 corridors, the West Midlands and parts of the South coast 2. Lib Dem vs Conservative in the stockbroker belt and Wessex 3. Labour vs Reform in the East Midlands, Lincs, Essex, North Kent and parts of the North / North East. Possibly parts of the Welsh Valleys too
Canada's Reform grew from a regional base. Our Reform's best chance of success is probably similar and I think something like the above is possible.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
Down with the Treating Act 1695 and its successors, without which we would all now be blind drunk at the expense of the candidates. Binface misses a trick by not having a repeal in his manifesto.
POTD so far.
TBF that isn't stopping some of us froim being well on the way to being blind drunk, judging from the posts so far.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
You haven't addressed any of the other issues because they are inarguable. Rejoin needs an incredible alignment of disparate factors to fall exactly into place, the UK has to want it AND the EU has to want it
Perhaps the biggest one is that cited in my comment. We will only as a nation want to Rejoin if the economy is really bad and the EU is doing well. If that is happening what government will ever spend tons of capital and energy on calling a referendum? And what will their pitch be: "we have really fucked things up, so vote to move power to Brussels, because we're useless"? I mean, the voters might do that, but I suggest the government in question will think Hell no
About the only time you may get a Rejoin referendum is in the first year of a Labour/Lib dem party with a massive majority, enjoying a honeymoon and lots of goodwill. The Tories and Reform will never come round to it. So basically for the next gnberaion it has to happen in the first year of THIS incoming government. It has to happen in 2025, as the following governments will have no such goodwill. Cf Blair and the euro - he could have pushed that through from about 1997-99, but he didn't so we never joined
Starmer has ruled out a new vote. So it's not happening on his watch
This already means it's off the cards til the 2040s-50s. And by then will it really matter? the world will have moved on as we adjust to life ruled by alien robot-gods, herding us into titanium mega-pods in Anglesey to keep us safe from global boiling
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
All Tory voters. Headed over the cliff.
Lots of dinosaurs and other fossils at the base of the cliff. Just sayin'.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
That could be easily arranged. Next time you visit France, come back on a small boat.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
Correct on the points. Nevertheless "We're stuffed but we're going to do nothing about it" isn't great rhetoric. Rhetoric matters.
But of course that won't be the rhetoric. There will be moves towards an EFTA/EEA type of arrangment (or attempts at least) and ways to improve UK/EU relations well short of even thinking about Rejoin.
Starmer is again lucky in this. The uncertainty over the US commitments to Ukraine and wider Europe added to the changing face of some of the big countries like France mean the UK is regarded as an important ally, particularly by Eastern and Northern Europe. It won't necessarily make them 'friendly' (national self interest will always win out) but it does mean they are at least not actively hostile to the UK.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
Realistically, it's all he's got.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
It is extraordinary that incumbents of 14 years have said nothing about what they have achieved in that time.
Would you boast about their "achievements"? Food bank dependency from 40k to over 3m Highest tax take for decades Facilitating £bns of fraud Waiting lists >7m Waterway pollution massively increased and for the LDs "Royal Mail privatisation - another manifesto commitment delivered" collapse of the postal service
2p off NI (eventually) & some childcare help (Eventually)
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
The Tory party needs to be in favour of Rejoin before the EU would consider letting us back in. Let's see who makes it into the post election Tory ranks.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
Realistically, it's all he's got.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
It is extraordinary that incumbents of 14 years have said nothing about what they have achieved in that time.
The Conservative Party have campaigned almost entirely on the failure of the Labour Party over the last 14 years and the next five. It would be interesting if they do get a caning from Reform after their Reformesque social and immigration policy offering.
And when they haven't, they have campaigned on undoing the bad things done by their immediate Conservative predecessors.
No wonder the net legacy is so feeble. Gay marriage (which many of them didn't really want at the time) and a certain albatross that we won't name. That's about it.
My mother just voted Labour for the first time ever - loyal tory voter in every general election since 1983. For her it was Truss the final factor, destroyed the Tory record for economic competence, and Sunak hasn't been able to improve on that. Dad still a tory though.
Yes, my mum switched Con > Lab - Liz Truss, the D-Day exit and the pressing need to get rid of George Galloway all factors.
That’s seriously embarrassing from the PM on Election Day.
Realistically, it's all he's got.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
It is extraordinary that incumbents of 14 years have said nothing about what they have achieved in that time.
The Conservative Party have campaigned almost entirely on the failure of the Labour Party over the last 14 years and the next five. It would be interesting if they do get a caning from Reform after their Reformesque social and immigration policy offering.
No one believes Tory rhetoric on tax and migration any more, because they've lied to us about all this for fourteen years, in the most spectacular way. So their efforts are futile
Anyway, as a distraction from being beseeched to vote for change indistinguishable from went before, I went to see The Bikeriders yesterday. Somewhat nervous as it could have been dog shit, but excellent, good performances and they got the aesthetic just right. Jodie Comer held the whole thing together, Austin Butler the young Achilles with a death wish (will he or won’t he?) and Tom Hardy the grizzled old warrior half in love with Achilles/Benny. Fantastic soundtrack which always helps.
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley 🚨 @IpsosUK FINAL CALL: Labour lead at 18 / Tories face historic defeat / Lab share drops in final week. 🚨
Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2)
EC (I know) gives:
Con 69 Lab 462 LD 71 Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
on that Ipsos.
I wonder if Ipsos is picking up a very late swing away from the conservatives here.
If you had to find a rationale for those numbers you might well say that with the main result a foregone conclusion, some who would otherwise vote Con or Labour feel sufficiently liberated to vote for the Party they really like the most.
Which chimes with YouGov's really rather striking recent finding that more than a quarter of today's Labour voters would prefer to be voting for someone else
Comments
I’d also say I always dreamed of a 911, if saying so meant that Porsche loaned me one for free.
I said - 'ha, great, keeping up the great british tradition of dogs at polling stations!!"
She just looked at me with a very blank look.
Best hopes are
Harrow East Tory @ 4/1 (Sean Fear)
Islington NOT Corbyn @ 2/1 (Various)
Tewkesbury at 9/2 (PtP)
Good luck to all PB punters! Many thanks to TSE for all his hard work and kind regards to OGH.
Also whenever I get this correction all i hear in my head is “And the union workhouses?… are they still in operation?”
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
CON: 123
LAB: 414
LD: 63
REF: 2
GREEN: 3
SNP: 22
PC: 3
OTH: 20.
A truly terrrrrible night for the Tories but they avoid the sub-100 humiliation. Kier just misses out on the Blair 1997 score.
(Spotted over on Lib Dem Voice.)
Rishi Sunak
@RishiSunak
·
48m
👟 Head to your polling station
✅ Bring ID
🇬🇧 Vote Conservative
🛑 Stop the Labour supermajority
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1808780441068966165
People absolutely do care about interest rates.
Having our own currency means our own central bank, not whose face is printed on the notes.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
Only a small fraction of people were willing to pay more than an extra £100, a year, in tax for the NHS. An extra £100 per person in work is £3.3bn in extra tax revenue. The deficit is over £100bn.
- Voters seeing this election as a free hit, meaning the voting patterns will be more akin to a PR election than a normal FPTP one
- Familiarity increasing - generally leads to increases in approval so long as someone isn't actively disliked
Edit - 174!
Con 53-125
Lab 418-516
LDs 38-72
Reform 1-7
Green 1-4
SNP 8-29
I'd put Con within 10 of 100, Lab 450ish, LDs late 30s, Reform 2, Green 2, SNP at upper end of predicted.
Plus another £251bn on health:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45814459
There's an active local primary campaign, which has endorsed the local Green candidate, who has a reasonable profile already, as its 'people's champion', and all the straw polls taken after hustings have put her ahead. The island has a reputation for paying more attention to the individual candidates than many seats. My town is covered in Green posters.
I know the local Tory is delighted and thinks the opposition split will see him through the middle. And he may well be right. Although Reform has a lot of support on social media and may also poll strongly, given the local demographic.
There was some commentary that the approval ratings having been historically a better judge of outcomes, were showing something of a polling miss, although towards Labour doing better not worse. More in line with the MRPs than the normal Westminster VIs, so an interesting one to watch.
Once again reflect on the stubby pencil being the difference between us and North Korea.
First ever GE vote where seat may change hands. Unlike North Korea.
See also the papers endorsing the Conservatives. All they can point to is things they fear about Starmer.
Labour 36%
Tories 26%
Reform 12%
LibDems 12%
Greens 6%
SNP 3%
Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
My rather belated competition entry for @Farooq
1. Reform beat Conservatives - 87 seats
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower - 124 seats
3. Conservatives lose their deposit - 17 seats
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit - 36 seats
5. Reform lose their deposit - 22 seats
6. Labour lose their deposit - 0 seats
7. Largest winning vote margin - 32,875 votes
8. Biggest notional majority defeated - 19,289 votes
9. Small winning vote margin - 8 votes
10. Smallest gap between 1st and 3rd - 1,134 votes
11. Lowest number of votes for any candidate - 27 votes
12. Parties elected - 12
13. Conservative Seats - 137 seats
14. Labour seats - 409 seats
15. Lib Dem seats - 59 seats
16. SNP seats - 19 seats
17. Sinn Fein seats - 7 seats
18. DUP seats - 7 seats
19. Seats Reform come second in - 89 seats
20. Conservatives - 25 %
21. Reform - 14 %
22. SNP - 33%
23. Lowest of any winning candidate - 29.8%
24. Highest of 2nd place candidate - 37.2%
25. Speaker percentage - 69.2%
Thank you!
Edited - Forgot Plaid Cymru and tweaked SNP. I will leave it now.
I've laid off the stake, and am letting the rest run.
Couple of quid against Corbyn just for the LOLs.
And I second your good wishes for Mike, and thanks to TSE.
I believe this is what the young people call 'representing'. Let's see what Arundel thinks this morning! (Two reactions so far, both loved it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU5Q0vnNLVU
Con 70 23%
LD 60 11%
all approx
The polling station had a steady trickle of voters.
If the don't knows returns to the Tories then the Labour share in headline voting intention will go down, even if the number of Labour voters stays steady, and ratings for SKS improve on the full sample.
Promoting one side that echo your views is one thing, having a go at others for having a different view is not healthy in a free democracy.
It might actually be true.
I don't sense much of a Green or Indy surge here. It'll be solid monolithic Labour. A few Palestine flags around but far fewer than equivalent places North of the river.
My mother just voted Labour for the first time ever - loyal tory voter in every general election since 1983. For her it was Truss the final factor, destroyed the Tory record for economic competence, and Sunak hasn't been able to improve on that. Dad still a tory though.
Labour 36-38 (Survation are outliers on 41)
Cons 19-21
Ref 15-17 (ipsos ae on a low 15 - phone poll?)
LD 11-13 (Verian at 13 while they have Lab lowest)
G 7-9 (Ipsos have it at 9 - maybe the mirror of the low Reform rating)
Lab lead 15-20 (Verian is lowest but that high LD vote is grim for the Cons. Opinium at 20 looks to have Lab too high).
Even 15% is of course a disastrous result but are the polls wrong? The 18 last polls have the lead between 13 and 20. In the last 19 General Elections the result has landed inside the scope of the final polls 11 times. It was within 1% 6 times more and within 2% once. Only at one GE - 1992 - has that pattern been bucked. All the pollsters whiffed by 7% in 1992.
Con politicians do not look like they did in the last couple of days before 1992.
Most Labour supporters had hopes that when he got his feet under the table he would start to unravel the mess that is Brexit.
https://x.com/prchovanec/status/1808697754182459798
Food bank dependency from 40k to over 3m
Highest tax take for decades
Facilitating £bns of fraud
Waiting lists >7m
Waterway pollution massively increased
and for the LDs
"Royal Mail privatisation - another manifesto commitment delivered" collapse of the postal service
1. Labour vs Conservative in the M1 and M6 corridors, the West Midlands and parts of the South coast
2. Lib Dem vs Conservative in the stockbroker belt and Wessex
3. Labour vs Reform in the East Midlands, Lincs, Essex, North Kent and parts of the North / North East. Possibly parts of the Welsh Valleys too
Canada's Reform grew from a regional base. Our Reform's best chance of success is probably similar and I think something like the above is possible.
Perhaps the biggest one is that cited in my comment. We will only as a nation want to Rejoin if the economy is really bad and the EU is doing well. If that is happening what government will ever spend tons of capital and energy on calling a referendum? And what will their pitch be: "we have really fucked things up, so vote to move power to Brussels, because we're useless"? I mean, the voters might do that, but I suggest the government in question will think Hell no
About the only time you may get a Rejoin referendum is in the first year of a Labour/Lib dem party with a massive majority, enjoying a honeymoon and lots of goodwill. The Tories and Reform will never come round to it. So basically for the next gnberaion it has to happen in the first year of THIS incoming government. It has to happen in 2025, as the following governments will have no such goodwill. Cf Blair and the euro - he could have pushed that through from about 1997-99, but he didn't so we never joined
Starmer has ruled out a new vote. So it's not happening on his watch
This already means it's off the cards til the 2040s-50s. And by then will it really matter? the world will have moved on as we adjust to life ruled by alien robot-gods, herding us into titanium mega-pods in Anglesey to keep us safe from global boiling
Starmer is again lucky in this. The uncertainty over the US commitments to Ukraine and wider Europe added to the changing face of some of the big countries like France mean the UK is regarded as an important ally, particularly by Eastern and Northern Europe. It won't necessarily make them 'friendly' (national self interest will always win out) but it does mean they are at least not actively hostile to the UK.
One vote for her anyway
(Eventually)
No wonder the net legacy is so feeble. Gay marriage (which many of them didn't really want at the time) and a certain albatross that we won't name. That's about it.