Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
Reversion to the mean is finally happening. It will mitigate the Conservative loss a little.
No i think its just labour voters switching to the greens in their safe seats.
I shall stick to my view, which is that even though Tories will revert a little to being Tories, the amount of tactical voting where it matters will ensure a virtual wipeout (70 seats). Where it doesn't matter (Bootle and about 250 other seats, Maldon and about 3 other seats) people will mostly do what they usually do.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
It's interesting that on the spread-betting markets, the total seat numbers for the three main parties has held rock steady for a number of days now. The sell/buy prices are as follows:
...........................................................................Sell.......................Buy Labour Seats.........................................................421.......................429 Conservative Seats................................................110.......................116 LibDems Seats.......................................................61.........................64
The mid spread price for Labour seats as indicated above is 425 seats which is approximately 30 seats below the Baxterised average of around 450 - 460 indicated by yesterday's clutch of polls. Similarly the mid spread price for Tory seats as indicated above is 113 seats which is also approximately 30 seats in this instance above the Baxterised average ofaround 75 - 85 indicated by the same clutch of polls yesterday. So quite a difference exists between the prices quoted by the spread-betters and Baxter's very sophisticated ElectoralCalculus model. But the big question of course is who is right and who is wrong ... if we knew the answer to that one, we could all afford Carribean holidays! Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the middle which would result in Labour winning 440 seats and the Tories winning 98 seats. All other things being equal this would result in Labour achieving an overall majority of around 230 seats which actually sounds about right to me!
Assorted predictions 1) there will be a Tory gain 2) a Labour shadow cabinet minister will fall 3) an Independent will win 4) 7 different entities will place second in England in seats
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
I am close to these figures, and think the LD v Tory numbers are within about 10, so could go either way. Also think Rishi will hold on.
Since lots of people are posting their predictions, here is mine: LAB 390 CON 160 LD 45 SNP 25 REF 6 Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure: In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
Mr. Dyed, I watched this video yesterday, Caspian Report, about the prospects of an Israel-Lebanon war. Might be of interest. 18 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ksp5N68Ko
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
Tewkesbury: I've backed Cons at 5/6 (Bet365).
I already hold bets on LDs at 20/1 and 9/2, so happy days.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
People looking at their actual candidates? We do after all not elect a PM, as so many have said. My labour candidate is a blow in from London who I could not vote for, so I went Lib Dem - a consultant at the local hospital.
Mr. Dyed, I watched this video yesterday, Caspian Report, about the prospects of an Israel-Lebanon war. Might be of interest. 18 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ksp5N68Ko
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
If the CONS go down to 62 and behind the LDs, I will have unwanted autonomous sexual incident
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Are you Isle of Wight West or East ?
East, even though the town wanted to be west
Labour for both I think.
East, I am not so sure. Last time's result and the MRP models say so. But Starmer blocked the local party from choosing a candidate and then relatively late imposed a disabled lesbian trans woman, relatively new to the island (stood in Sutton last time) on the seat, presumably to tick off some boxes for his candidate list, which has split the local Labour Party. On top of which, said candidate is as dull as ditchwater and answers every question in a dull monotone with extracts from the Labour manifesto. And she's a town councillor for Sandown which has the highest council tax on the island having hiked it by 50% in one year (the parish element) not long ago.
There's an active local primary campaign, which has endorsed the local Green candidate, who has a reasonable profile already, as its 'people's champion', and all the straw polls taken after hustings have put her ahead. The island has a reputation for paying more attention to the individual candidates than many seats. My town is covered in Green posters.
I know the local Tory is delighted and thinks the opposition split will see him through the middle. And he may well be right. Although Reform has a lot of support on social media and may also poll strongly, given the local demographic.
Very interesting information. I shall watch out for the Isle of Wight East result - the Isle of Wight is where I grew up, and I certainly do remember that it pays attention to the candidates and likes to be a bit different. And isn't that fond of candidates imposed by a national (London) authority.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
Yes, a short trip - a few days in Dakar then the ferry down to the Casamance region, used to be a no-go area but now peaceful and supposedly beautiful. Paddling around in pirogues and staying in mud huts. They are animists down there.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
If Rishi accidentally gets over the line despite his wish to only "Stop a Labour supermajority" do you think he'll let Starmer have a go, baggsies no swaps on the basis he wasn't going for the win - like declaring you're going for the yellow in snooker and fluking the green when you're on a colour ?
1992 - Delyn - Labour 1997 - Somerton & Frome - Labour 2001, 2005, 2010 - Yeovil - Labour 2015, 2017 - Southampton Test - Labour 2019 - Ealing Central and Acton - Labour 2024 - Southampton Itchen - Labour (I have voted for other parties in local elections but when it comes to national elections I'm like the red-rosette version of Big G)
This may be the first time in my life that I'm going to vote for the winner in my constituency and the party that wins nationally.
Since lots of people are posting their predictions, here is mine: LAB 390 CON 160 LD 45 SNP 25 REF 6 Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure: In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
Interesting. It would be useful if people making predictions could announce their voting intention at the same time, then we will know if it is possibly tainted by hopecasting, or - I'm gonna invent a new word - "dreadcasting"
Labour voters are specially prone to dreadcasting: they can't quite believe they are gonna win big, so they dreadcast, they predict a surprisingly good result for the Tories. Like people warding off bad voodoo with placatory offerings of blood
"Nap-pros have perfected the art of “pre-loading” and this comes expert-recommended.
The idea is if you have a coffee immediately before your 20-minute nap (set a timer on your phone) and then the caffeine hits its peak just as the nap ends, you’re perky and ready to go as soon as you wake up.
“It’s a good idea,” says Prof Foster [sleep expert] "
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
Correct on the points. Nevertheless "We're stuffed but we're going to do nothing about it" isn't great rhetoric. Rhetoric matters.
But of course that won't be the rhetoric. There will be moves towards an EFTA/EEA type of arrangment (or attempts at least) and ways to improve UK/EU relations well short of even thinking about Rejoin.
Starmer is again lucky in this. The uncertainty over the US commitments to Ukraine and wider Europe added to the changing face of some of the big countries like France mean the UK is regarded as an important ally, particularly by Eastern and Northern Europe. It won't necessarily make them 'friendly' (national self interest will always win out) but it does mean they are at least not actively hostile to the UK.
I think there is some damage limitation available to Starmer and maybe he'll do it. But a "we are where we are" rhetoric is better than "stuff you" when most people think Brexit is a mistake.
Starmer isn't good at rhetoric and that's a weakness for a politician.
I am struggling to understand why the polls would be going down unless it was for tactical reasons, can anyone help me?
People looking at their actual candidates? We do after all not elect a PM, as so many have said. My labour candidate is a blow in from London who I could not vote for, so I went Lib Dem - a consultant at the local hospital.
So you're voting for your hospital to lose a key member of staff? YOU MONSTER.
Genuinely will feel a bit of sorrow for that, but I imagine he might keep his hand in!
It's from Orwell's 1984, it means parroting rehearsed, received thoughts, which you don't truly understand or believe, like a duck repetitively quacking
If Rishi accidentally gets over the line despite his wish to only "Stop a Labour supermajority" do you think he'll let Starmer have a go, baggsies no swaps on the basis he wasn't going for the win - like declaring you're going for the yellow in snooker and fluking the green when you're on a colour ?
No it confirms to him his impeccable record as PM and his inch-perfect campaign. And to be honest, when it happens, he is perfectly entitled to spin it that way.
Them's the breaks. And Starmer gets to relax at six every evening with his family.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
Yes, a short trip - a few days in Dakar then the ferry down to the Casamance region, used to be a no-go area but now peaceful and supposedly beautiful. Paddling around in pirogues and staying in mud huts. They are animists down there.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
Not that I'm competitive or anything, but I am determined to go somewhere even more exotic than that, as you do it, to prove I am more virile or clever or whatever the fuck, but mainly because I is idiot
Voted! And done some street politics with passing mums heading up to school. Hot topic local issue - save the library.
Has anyone suggested the aggressive ultra extremist method to save the library?
AKA people using it?
We ARE using it. The council budget keeps getting cut year on year as their costs on statutory services goes up. They're faced with the need to provide library services but not being able to afford to switch the lights on. Our library is down to 6 hours a week as it is.
Officers (its always the officers) genuinely asking us if there are other places that could be used to put a library. There are not. The fightback is by pushing them to provide the statutory services that have already been cut such as youth services, and put them into the building.
A bit of cash spent - to replace all the florescent lights with LEDs and replace the storage heaters with energy efficient heat pump - would slash operating costs. But they don't have the money to invest in that either.
This isn't even party political at a micro scale - every council is slashing services because the system itself is broken. Which is why I am running for election - we need to make a more fundamental change than tinkering around the edges. What legacy are we bequeathing to my kids when everything we once had it being scrapped because we can't afford it? How can we afford not to have a bus service or libraries or youth work or public toilets or a GP surgery with GPs in it or the police?
Bloody Tories know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Final forecast:: Labour 36% Tories 26% Reform 12% LibDems 12% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 5%
Thinking - It's clear Labour is beginning to lose vote share in three ways - DKs going to the Tories, tactical voting and to the Greens and Independents. The Tories almost always outperform their polling. Reform almost always underperforms theirs.
The one I thing that will be interesting is how much, if at all, Reform eats into the Labour vote in the Red Wall. I suppose it is possible that Labour could underperform on the vote share but without the Tories benefitting.
"Reform almost always underperforms [their polling]" said Southam Observer. Which is probably the silliest thing I've read since the last speech from Johnson. At EVERY SINGLE by-election since the launch of Reform, it's gained a significantly lower share of votes cast than it got in any polls published beforehand. It's scarcely competed in any locals - except this year when it won just 2 of the over 300 seats it had a candidate in.
There is an almost-credible theory going round about "shy Reform supporters" - for which there's no evidence at all either way, except a few anecdotes . The theory might turn out to be accurate - but if it does, Reform's performance in this election will go completely against the past few years. Not impossible: the hoo-hah Reform's created around itself (with a bit of help from neurotic Tory fanboys and fangirls) may well have made up foe Reform's cringe-worthily amateur campaigning skills.
Whether that's true or not we won't know till tomorrow morning. Till then it's just a theory devoid of evidence.
I will tactically vote Labour today in Pembrokeshire rather than my usual Lib Dem Vote. It will probably cancel out my wife's Tory vote, but I'm not sure. I just hope that the favour will be returned in other places. I am not scared of Starmer being Prime Minister, and I am disgusted with the way the Tories have ruled during the last 5 years. The final Tory emails about Labour have been outrageous, Trumpian but sadly not unexpected.
I suspect the result will be LibDem 45/50, Tory 120/130, Ref 4/5, SNP 20/25, Lab 410/420
It's refreshing to see a celeb who, rather than confessing to wanting world peace or an end to hunger as a child, says they always dreamed of owning a Porsche 911.
Which of course she still doesn’t. It’s a Porsche press car, on loan to her as part of a sponsorship agreement.
I’d also say I always dreamed of a 911, if saying so meant that Porsche loaned me one for free.
Even celebs who can easily afford it for that type of thing though.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
Yes, a short trip - a few days in Dakar then the ferry down to the Casamance region, used to be a no-go area but now peaceful and supposedly beautiful. Paddling around in pirogues and staying in mud huts. They are animists down there.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
Not that I'm competitive or anything, but I am determined to go somewhere even more exotic than that, as you do it, to prove I am more virile or clever or whatever the fuck, but mainly because I is idiot
But: enjoy!
Go to Rhyl. Off the beaten track of most global adventurers. Real exotic bragging rights.
Surely a lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a good thing with regard to the longevity of their government. It means that people have no great expectations to be dashed and Labour can only really surprise on the upside.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
I have that as one of my fun money picks at about a £20 stake.
At the risk of damaging my non-existent PB-credibility-fu, where would one lay it off?
I can see it on PBX or another exchange in chunks of about £1, or backing the alternative. Do we have other options?
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
All Tory voters. Headed over the cliff.
Lots of dinosaurs and other fossils at the base of the cliff. Just sayin'.
And yet still slimmer pickings than there used to be.
Since lots of people are posting their predictions, here is mine: LAB 390 CON 160 LD 45 SNP 25 REF 6 Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure: In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
Interesting. It would be useful if people making predictions could announce their voting intention at the same time, then we will know if it is possibly tainted by hopecasting, or - I'm gonna invent a new word - "dreadcasting"
Labour voters are specially prone to dreadcasting: they can't quite believe they are gonna win big, so they dreadcast, they predict a surprisingly good result for the Tories. Like people warding off bad voodoo with placatory offerings of blood
A good many of our regular posters will be only too happy if nobody records their predictions.
As soon as the polls close, the Site's Enforcers will be rounding up all those who gaily predicted NOM for all and sundry to view.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
I have a friend who has done many of them, and raves about her travels there. You do have to have an interest in and admire Islamic culture, which isn't exactly your strong point
Uganda is scenic but chaotic and corrupt, and is likely what Rwanda would be like without the RPF
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
If the CONS go down to 62 and behind the LDs, I will have unwanted autonomous sexual incident
At our times of life (which I think are not dissimilar), any sexual incident should be welcomed whatever the cause.
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
I see the dog, but where's the polling queue for scale ?
All Tory voters. Headed over the cliff.
Lots of dinosaurs and other fossils at the base of the cliff. Just sayin'.
And yet still slimmer pickings than there used to be.
I will tactically vote Labour today in Pembrokeshire rather than my usual Lib Dem Vote. It will probably cancel out my wife's Tory vote, but I'm not sure. I just hope that the favour will be returned in other places. I am not scared of Starmer being Prime Minister, but I am disgusted with the way the Tories have ruled during the last 5 years. The final Tory emails about Labour have been outrageous, Trumpian but sadly not unexpected.
I have just voted Tory in Monmouth. Probably won't make a difference looks like a Labour gain, but I cannot vote Labour with the shambles they have made of Wales. Labour in power at Westminster and Cardiff Bay, an embarrassment of riches awaits us...
It's from Orwell's 1984, it means parroting rehearsed, received thoughts, which you don't truly understand or believe, like a duck repetitively quacking
I don't recall that one, but it is a handy descriptor of 90% of political commentary.
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
I am close to these figures, and think the LD v Tory numbers are within about 10, so could go either way. Also think Rishi will hold on.
I agree. The LDs win 10 fewer seats, Reform only pick up 2, the Cons get 20 seats extra and you're talking about a smaller (though far from insignificant) Labour majority and the Cons squeaking 100 seats. I think Sunak will win his seat but by the smallest of margins (and a recount).
Seems obvious to me that if the PM loses his seat then it's almost guaranteed that the Cons will switch places with the LDs.
Since lots of people are posting their predictions, here is mine: LAB 390 CON 160 LD 45 SNP 25 REF 6 Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure: In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
Interesting. It would be useful if people making predictions could announce their voting intention at the same time, then we will know if it is possibly tainted by hopecasting, or - I'm gonna invent a new word - "dreadcasting"
Labour voters are specially prone to dreadcasting: they can't quite believe they are gonna win big, so they dreadcast, they predict a surprisingly good result for the Tories. Like people warding off bad voodoo with placatory offerings of blood
A good many of our regular posters will be only too happy if nobody records their predictions.
As soon as the polls close, the Site's Enforces will be rounding up all those who gaily predicted NOM for all and sundry to view.
The show trials should begin within a week.
You're just heading for an epic win in @Benpointer contest (I went NOM in that, not believing the Tories will be so hopeless).
This is my eve of poll forecast. I voted LD.
Lab 424 Con127 LD 49 SNP 22 Gr 2 PC 3 REF 2 OTH 3 NI 18
Israel cannot tolerate this, as it makes the northern slice of the country uninhabitable, as much as the southern chunk is endangered by Gaza. It now becomes existential as the part of Israel that remains liveable gets smaller and smaller
I expect Israel to go all-in on Hezbollah. It is a massive risk but they have no choice
I wonder if this was the Iran/Hez/Hamas plan all along. Tempt Israel into a grotesque war in Gaza, and let them lose all public sympathy (and expend vast amounts of blood and treasure). And then force them into ANOTHER war as they exhaustedly end the first
Surely a lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a good thing with regard to the longevity of their government. It means that people have no great expectations to be dashed and Labour can only really surprise on the upside.
I think it means that Labour will not receive the benefit of the doubt for as many mistakes that they make as otherwise.
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
If the CONS go down to 62 and behind the LDs, I will have unwanted autonomous sexual incident
It's from Orwell's 1984, it means parroting rehearsed, received thoughts, which you don't truly understand or believe, like a duck repetitively quacking
I'd never realised ducks were so brainwashed/conformist
Anyway, my six year old's hot take is that the 'red team' are going to win because the 'blue team have made things really expensive'*. Not sure the blame is fairly apportioned, but as analyses go it's not bad overall. He also asked whether there were other teams, so I provided a brief introduction to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform. He couldn't really see why anyone would vote for Reform, thought the Greens had a point (I majored on the environment for them more than the Watermelon aspects) and asked me what the difference was really between the LDs and Labour, which is probably another thing a lot of voters will be pondering. I showed him a couple of videos of Ed Davey and he became an instant LD voter though.
So, there you have it: Red team win, blue team given a kicking, very few votes for Reform (he thought maybe the candidates mums and dads would vote for them), good day for Greens and big personal vote for Ed Davey. Bet accordingly/DYOR.
*his mum had a go at explaining the election to him a few weeks back when it was first called
On Rishi Sunak's seat, remember in the York and North Yorkshire Mayoral election, the Conservatives won the North Yorkshire part of the area. It was only by a few thousand votes and was outnumbered by the York majority for Labour, but the county actually stayed blue.
I will tactically vote Labour today in Pembrokeshire rather than my usual Lib Dem Vote. It will probably cancel out my wife's Tory vote, but I'm not sure. I just hope that the favour will be returned in other places. I am not scared of Starmer being Prime Minister, but I am disgusted with the way the Tories have ruled during the last 5 years. The final Tory emails about Labour have been outrageous, Trumpian but sadly not unexpected.
I have just voted Tory in Monmouth. Probably won't make a difference looks like a Labour gain, but I cannot vote Labour with the shambles they have made of Wales. Labour in power at Westminster and Cardiff Bay, an embarrassment of riches awaits us...
Fair point, I don't disagree vis a vis Wales, but I am more concerned with Westminster today.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
If it's not a single malt, then Famous Grouse perhaps.
Black Label is drinkable
Morning, Malky! Still sunny if windy here on the east side.
Morning Carnyx, windy here also and alternating sun/chucking it down , just what is expected in school holidays. Have had to use heating a few times recently it has been so bleak, been shocking weather so far.
Surely a lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a good thing with regard to the longevity of their government. It means that people have no great expectations to be dashed and Labour can only really surprise on the upside.
I think it means that Labour will not receive the benefit of the doubt for as many mistakes that they make as otherwise.
They do get to blame things on the Tories for a fair while though. Ten years or thereabouts seems to be the going rate.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
Yes, a short trip - a few days in Dakar then the ferry down to the Casamance region, used to be a no-go area but now peaceful and supposedly beautiful. Paddling around in pirogues and staying in mud huts. They are animists down there.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
Not that I'm competitive or anything, but I am determined to go somewhere even more exotic than that, as you do it, to prove I am more virile or clever or whatever the fuck, but mainly because I is idiot
But: enjoy!
I have been to Angola. But only on a boat trip on whatever river constitutes the border with Namibia and only for long enough to be photographed holding a big sign saying ILLEGALLY IN ANGOLA. Bit silly in retrospect.
On Rishi Sunak's seat, remember in the York and North Yorkshire Mayoral election, the Conservatives won the North Yorkshire part of the area. It was only by a few thousand votes and was outnumbered by the York majority for Labour, but the county actually stayed blue.
Much of it has been Donkey in a Blue Rosette country, to be fair. If Sunak's out then it really is end of days, I'd say.
Laura Kuennsberg is “hearing of a surprise late swing to the Tories, with hung parliament now in sight”.
Perhaps those of us who are keen on reversing Brexit think his offer of not reversing it in his lifetime was rather off putting
And perhaps if Labour win a landslide majority those of you who obsess over Brexit are politically insignificant then?
Went down like a bucket of sick on the doorsteps of affirmed supporters last night, it will be apparent what effect it has in 18 hours. No one wants to obsess about Brexit apart from those misguided people who wanted it, it just f**ks up significant aspects of our lives, As it was obvious it would do. Sorry, I forgot, "Big Thanks",
Isn’t the whole point of Starmer that he only promises what he can deliver? I believe it is - and I actually admire him for that. Its one reason I will be eagerly voting for him before I emigrate
And, whatever your views, Rejoin is not practical politics. It’s just not going to happen. Think about everything that has to fall into place
In Britain you’d need five years of solid polls clamouring for rejoin. These polls would have to show acceptance of the euro, free movement, everything. No pm will risk a vote they might lose
So the government that offers the poll will also have to be popular. And Britain will have to be suffering AT THE SAME TIME - so people want this huge change. Think about THAT
Then you need the EU to agree. Negotiations could take a decade. At any time a veto could happen from any country. Spain might demand Gibraltar. On and on
It’s absurd and it is never going to happen - no one will want to expend the political capital and take the endless risk - Sir Kir Royale Starmer is simply telling you the truth. Sorry
It's easy, you just need to say 'Bring back Free Movement with the EU to drastically reduce immigration. The Tories ended Free Movement and immigration skyrocketed.'
Not that personally think immigration's a bad thing. But the drip, drip, rip of the right-wing media over decades has poisoned the well.
In the age of digital payments, once the Boomers have gone no-one will care about pound notes.
The Tory party needs to be in favour of Rejoin before the EU would consider letting us back in. Let's see who makes it into the post election Tory ranks.
Indeed. There is also the problem that the cycles for the UK and EU are decoupling rapidly. hence UK construction upswing, EU downswing. Getting back in will be like jumping from a trapeze- it needs a matched cycle.
Of course when we jumped off, we ended up hitting the floor.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
I have a friend who has done many of them, and raves about her travels there. You do have to have an interest in and admire Islamic culture, which isn't exactly your strong point
Uganda is scenic but chaotic and corrupt, and is likely what Rwanda would be like without the RPF
Don't be ridiculous. The fact I believe migration of conservative Muslims into the UK is a net negative has no bearing on my interest in Islamic countries. I've been to most of them, from Morocco to Indonesia, from Syria to Lebanon, from Turkey to Malaysia, from Azerbaijan to the UAE, and from Zanzibar to Sarajevo
I actually LIVED in Egypt for a while, back when Cairo was tolerable
We might see five parties poll between 10 and 29% in the 2029 general election. Good luck predicting the seat distribution that would lead to.
I don't think that's at all likely. Labour, Lib Dems, Reform, Greens, but who's the fifth?
Yes. It's a bit of a stretch, but I am forecasting that the Tories will keep their support above 10% for the GE after this one.
Could come back like the Canadian Tories, could go the way of Les Republicains. Tough to predict.
If they avoid merger with the Faragists, then their councillor base should create a lot of inertia. The Labour unpopularity I expect will also win a few votes, even in a worst-case scenario where they lose more to both Reform and Lib Dems and enter a death spiral.
I will tactically vote Labour today in Pembrokeshire rather than my usual Lib Dem Vote. It will probably cancel out my wife's Tory vote, but I'm not sure. I just hope that the favour will be returned in other places. I am not scared of Starmer being Prime Minister, but I am disgusted with the way the Tories have ruled during the last 5 years. The final Tory emails about Labour have been outrageous, Trumpian but sadly not unexpected.
I have just voted Tory in Monmouth. Probably won't make a difference looks like a Labour gain, but I cannot vote Labour with the shambles they have made of Wales. Labour in power at Westminster and Cardiff Bay, an embarrassment of riches awaits us...
Should Starmer become Prime Minister one of his earliest interventions is to deal with Gething. He needs to be as ruthless as he was with Corbyn.
Short day at work today. Have overcome my extreme cynicism of earlier in the year and gone to the polling station, so that's done. I was the only punter but that's probably not surprising at this time of the morning. Weather is nice and the seat is also competitive for the first time in decades, which might aid turnout. Anyway, now we wait.
Israel cannot tolerate this, as it makes the northern slice of the country uninhabitable, as much as the southern chunk is endangered by Gaza. It now becomes existential as the part of Israel that remains liveable gets smaller and smaller
I expect Israel to go all-in on Hezbollah. It is a massive risk but they have no choice
I wonder if this was the Iran/Hez/Hamas plan all along. Tempt Israel into a grotesque war in Gaza, and let them lose all public sympathy (and expend vast amounts of blood and treasure). And then force them into ANOTHER war as they exhaustedly end the first
Going into Gaza with no exit strategy was predicted by many to be a disaster for Israel.
Since lots of people are posting their predictions, here is mine: LAB 390 CON 160 LD 45 SNP 25 REF 6 Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure: In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
Interesting. It would be useful if people making predictions could announce their voting intention at the same time, then we will know if it is possibly tainted by hopecasting, or - I'm gonna invent a new word - "dreadcasting"
Labour voters are specially prone to dreadcasting: they can't quite believe they are gonna win big, so they dreadcast, they predict a surprisingly good result for the Tories. Like people warding off bad voodoo with placatory offerings of blood
A good many of our regular posters will be only too happy if nobody records their predictions.
As soon as the polls close, the Site's Enforces will be rounding up all those who gaily predicted NOM for all and sundry to view.
The show trials should begin within a week.
You're just heading for an epic win in @Benpointer contest (I went NOM in that, not believing the Tories will be so hopeless).
This is my eve of poll forecast. I voted LD.
Lab 424 Con127 LD 49 SNP 22 Gr 2 PC 3 REF 2 OTH 3 NI 18
Turnout 61%
You will likely get a reduced sentence for fessing up promptly. Others are likely to be less lucky.
That prediction looks ok. I'd put my own up but it is almost completely congruent with the Sporting Index spreads, so no need to.
Surely a lack of enthusiasm for Labour is a good thing with regard to the longevity of their government. It means that people have no great expectations to be dashed and Labour can only really surprise on the upside.
I think it means that Labour will not receive the benefit of the doubt for as many mistakes that they make as otherwise.
They do get to blame things on the Tories for a fair while though. Ten years or thereabouts seems to be the going rate.
Perhaps. I am expecting the public to be impatient, but perhaps they are looking forward to being able to ignore politics for a few years, and so Labour will get a free pass on that basis.
I will tactically vote Labour today in Pembrokeshire rather than my usual Lib Dem Vote. It will probably cancel out my wife's Tory vote, but I'm not sure. I just hope that the favour will be returned in other places. I am not scared of Starmer being Prime Minister, but I am disgusted with the way the Tories have ruled during the last 5 years. The final Tory emails about Labour have been outrageous, Trumpian but sadly not unexpected.
I have just voted Tory in Monmouth. Probably won't make a difference looks like a Labour gain, but I cannot vote Labour with the shambles they have made of Wales. Labour in power at Westminster and Cardiff Bay, an embarrassment of riches awaits us...
Should Starmer become Prime Minister one of his earliest interventions is to deal with Gething. He needs to be as ruthless as he was with Corbyn.
Nah, it's Wales, he can let them do their thing and know it'll vote Labour next time too.
We might see five parties poll between 10 and 29% in the 2029 general election. Good luck predicting the seat distribution that would lead to.
I don't think that's at all likely. Labour, Lib Dems, Reform, Greens, but who's the fifth?
Yes. It's a bit of a stretch, but I am forecasting that the Tories will keep their support above 10% for the GE after this one.
Could come back like the Canadian Tories, could go the way of Les Republicains. Tough to predict.
If they avoid merger with the Faragists, then their councillor base should create a lot of inertia. The Labour unpopularity I expect will also win a few votes, even in a worst-case scenario where they lose more to both Reform and Lib Dems and enter a death spiral.
They could do with a couple earlyish by elections as opposition in winnable seats (say after a year or so) - there should be plenty of 'winnables' from the mass loss
A long queue out the door, never seen it so brisk. The woman behind me was debating how best to defeat the Tory and hadn't made up her mind when it got to my turn to go in.
Are you Isle of Wight West or East ?
East, even though the town wanted to be west
Labour for both I think.
East, I am not so sure. Last time's result and the MRP models say so. But Starmer blocked the local party from choosing a candidate and then relatively late imposed a disabled lesbian trans woman, relatively new to the island (stood in Sutton last time) on the seat, presumably to tick off some boxes for his candidate list, which has split the local Labour Party. On top of which, said candidate is as dull as ditchwater and answers every question in a dull monotone with extracts from the Labour manifesto. And she's a town councillor for Sandown which has the highest council tax on the island having hiked it by 50% in one year (the parish element) not long ago.
There's an active local primary campaign, which has endorsed the local Green candidate, who has a reasonable profile already, as its 'people's champion', and all the straw polls taken after hustings have put her ahead. The island has a reputation for paying more attention to the individual candidates than many seats. My town is covered in Green posters.
I know the local Tory is delighted and thinks the opposition split will see him through the middle. And he may well be right. Although Reform has a lot of support on social media and may also poll strongly, given the local demographic.
Very interesting information. I shall watch out for the Isle of Wight East result - the Isle of Wight is where I grew up, and I certainly do remember that it pays attention to the candidates and likes to be a bit different. And isn't that fond of candidates imposed by a national (London) authority.
The problem I have is that there are very strong arguments why each of the four of them won't win. The only certainty is that the LibDems will be fifth or worse (there's a local indy standing to fly the flag for the landslips affecting the south of the island. Fly the flag against them, that is; a true anti-landslide campaign!)
We might see five parties poll between 10 and 29% in the 2029 general election. Good luck predicting the seat distribution that would lead to.
I don't think that's at all likely. Labour, Lib Dems, Reform, Greens, but who's the fifth?
Yes. It's a bit of a stretch, but I am forecasting that the Tories will keep their support above 10% for the GE after this one.
Could come back like the Canadian Tories, could go the way of Les Republicains. Tough to predict.
If they avoid merger with the Faragists, then their councillor base should create a lot of inertia. The Labour unpopularity I expect will also win a few votes, even in a worst-case scenario where they lose more to both Reform and Lib Dems and enter a death spiral.
You could be right. On the other hand wasn't this the narrative in 1997.
Conservative hubris is remarkable. I remember circa 1986/1987 articles in the Sunday Times and Sunday Telegraph pondering who would be the Tory Prime Ministers during their 5th, 6th and 7th terms.
I’ve got an election day lunch with my agent, at the Groucho Club. Feels right as we kiss goodbye to the last of the Tory good times: the Era of Opulence is giving way to a sad, pinched, leftier kind of life
Come the next election the Groucho will probably be a madrasa
I’ll see you all on the boats at Dover, heading out
Have you visited Rwanda? I think there may be some accommodation available at good rates.
I would actually like to go to Rwanda - quite a lot. It is on my list, in one of the few regions of the world I do not know: central/west Africa, central Asia, central America. And Polynesia. I have basically been everywhere else
I've been twice. It has a lot of hills. And people. They really don't need, nor really can feed, any more. Tidiest, most law abiding, organised country in Africa. Just remember to say thank you to the president.
I've heard Uganda and Malawi aare beautiful but very poor and sad, especially the latter
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
Yes, a short trip - a few days in Dakar then the ferry down to the Casamance region, used to be a no-go area but now peaceful and supposedly beautiful. Paddling around in pirogues and staying in mud huts. They are animists down there.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
Not that I'm competitive or anything, but I am determined to go somewhere even more exotic than that, as you do it, to prove I am more virile or clever or whatever the fuck, but mainly because I is idiot
But: enjoy!
Itinerary: various Hanseatic League towns - there's a big choice over many countries, including several gems that aren't well-known in the UK. Free bullshit political angle: the Hanseatic League was like the EU, eventually failed because of lack of clear power structures/proper military and actual countries got fed up with them interfering in their trade. Greifswald is also where Nord Stream ended (near enough), to tie in with another of your interests.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
Empty suit and he's shown it in this campaign. He's just against an emptier one. His refusal to offer any vision is costing him time off any honeymoon.
Ladbrokes now have the LDs in to evens; Con still just holding on to favoritism at 8/13. Those who followed my advice should now lay off if they have not already done so.
It's simply too close to call.
I have that as one of my fun money picks at about a £20 stake.
At the risk of damaging my non-existent PB-credibility-fu, where would one lay it off?
I can see it on PBX or another exchange in chunks of about £1, or backing the alternative. Do we have other options?
For that amount you are probably best off finding somebody you know to take the other side. If you can't find anyone drop me an email - arklebar@gmail.com and I'll give you the quoted odds.
I assume you will want the 8/13 to cover the score you had on the LD? (What odds did you get on him, btw? I got some at 7s,but mostly he was 9/2 until a few days ago.)
I like TLDR (the youtube channel, not the concept) but in cases like this they cannot have insider knowledge and so are reduced to repeating polls and adding "gut feeling". It's a bit rude of me to characterise them such, but I'm annoyed by the rise of podcasts - which just means two or more people talking bollocks and getting paid for it - and prefer scripted lectures designed to be delivered to an audience.
Con 62 Lab 470 LD 71 Ref 6 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
I am close to these figures, and think the LD v Tory numbers are within about 10, so could go either way. Also think Rishi will hold on.
I agree. The LDs win 10 fewer seats, Reform only pick up 2, the Cons get 20 seats extra and you're talking about a smaller (though far from insignificant) Labour majority and the Cons squeaking 100 seats. I think Sunak will win his seat but by the smallest of margins (and a recount).
Seems obvious to me that if the PM loses his seat then it's almost guaranteed that the Cons will switch places with the LDs.
Yes. I don´t buy this.
The Tories will be comfortably above 120. The Lib Dems will be happy enough to break 40 and return to being given third place in the Commons business. Reform will struggle to get their two and the Greens their three.
However, the electorate is pretty pissed off, and this is the final warning for the current system.
Having first voted in GE97 (Warwick and Leamimgton - safe Tory, went Labour for first time in its history) I finally managed to vote for a winning candidate (Tory) in 2019. He then defected to Labour 18 months later....! (Wakeford, Bury South).
I voted Tory again this morning (with zero enthusiasm and air of resignation) for a candidate I didn't even know the name of until I saw the ballot paper and have had zero election comms from. Not a single Tory leaflet or door knock. Indeed only Labour and English Democrats posted anything through at all.
Wow. What is that? Is it is his Never Never Never to the EU? Something else?
Empty suit and he's shown it in this campaign. He's just against an emptier one. His refusal to offer any vision is costing him time off any honeymoon.
I am praying that translates into a LAB > REF surge. Unlikely, but a man can dream
Comments
2015, 2017, 2019, 2024 - Kingston & Surbiton - Lib Dem
2010 - Lambeth - Conservative
2005 - Fulham & Chelsea - Labour
Missed our on voting in 2001 as I was U18 by a few days, but would probably have been Con
Con 62
Lab 470
LD 71
Ref 6
Green 3
SNP 15
PC 3
Northern Ireland 18
Lab Majority 290
The only reason I think it could be this bad for the Cons is the story yesterday about Richmond and Northallerton. If - and it's a big if - Sunak is genuinely concerned that he may lose his seat, that suggests devastating numbers and Ed Davey as LOTO. Three things go against Sunak in his seat at the moment: 1) the D-Day debacle; 2) the election of a Labour mayor for North Yorkshire; and 3) 14 years of Conservative government.
I'll know I am wrong by about 4 am.
I hear nothing but bad things - TBH - about west Africa, so I was intrigued to hear that @TimS is going to Dakar this winter
I hope to do a couple of the Stans in the near-ish future
...........................................................................Sell.......................Buy
Labour Seats.........................................................421.......................429
Conservative Seats................................................110.......................116
LibDems Seats.......................................................61.........................64
The mid spread price for Labour seats as indicated above is 425 seats which is approximately 30 seats below the Baxterised average of around 450 - 460 indicated by yesterday's clutch of polls.
Similarly the mid spread price for Tory seats as indicated above is 113 seats which is also approximately 30 seats in this instance above the Baxterised average ofaround 75 - 85 indicated by the same clutch of polls yesterday.
So quite a difference exists between the prices quoted by the spread-betters and Baxter's very sophisticated ElectoralCalculus model. But the big question of course is who is right and who is wrong ... if we knew the answer to that one, we could all afford Carribean holidays!
Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in the middle which would result in Labour winning 440 seats and the Tories winning 98 seats. All other things being equal this would result in Labour achieving an overall majority of around 230 seats which actually sounds about right to me!
1) there will be a Tory gain
2) a Labour shadow cabinet minister will fall
3) an Independent will win
4) 7 different entities will place second in England in seats
Lab 39%
Con 22%
LD 10%
Grn 6%
Ref 14%
NI 3%
SNP/PC 4%
Ind/Oth 2%
Seats:
Con 70
Lab 461
LD 66
PC/SNP 22
Grn 3
Ref 3
Ind/Oth 6
NI 18
"The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking.
Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that).
Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results."
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1808482446951797043
LAB 390
CON 160
LD 45
SNP 25
REF 6
Others 6
Rationale for the relatively "high" CON figure:
In the "blue wall" lack of or confused tactical voting will see a number of seats where (for example) CON 33-35% is enough to win against LD 28% LAB 22% or vice versa.
Similarly in the "red wall" a lot of 2019 CON voters will switch to REF rather than LAB leading to results like CON 35% and LAB 28% REF 22% (or vice versa).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3ksp5N68Ko
I already hold bets on LDs at 20/1 and 9/2, so happy days.
LDs are now best-priced 1/2 but I'm letting my bet run.
I shall make sure to post some mini-travelogues and pictures of drinks on terraces.
1997 - Somerton & Frome - Labour
2001, 2005, 2010 - Yeovil - Labour
2015, 2017 - Southampton Test - Labour
2019 - Ealing Central and Acton - Labour
2024 - Southampton Itchen - Labour
(I have voted for other parties in local elections but when it comes to national elections I'm like the red-rosette version of Big G)
This may be the first time in my life that I'm going to vote for the winner in my constituency and the party that wins nationally.
Labour voters are specially prone to dreadcasting: they can't quite believe they are gonna win big, so they dreadcast, they predict a surprisingly good result for the Tories. Like people warding off bad voodoo with placatory offerings of blood
"Nap-pros have perfected the art of “pre-loading” and this comes expert-recommended.
The idea is if you have a coffee immediately before your 20-minute nap (set a timer on your phone) and then the caffeine hits its peak just as the nap ends, you’re perky and ready to go as soon as you wake up.
“It’s a good idea,” says Prof Foster [sleep expert] "
Odds have travelled a long way in this three-way constituency.
I've just taken some on Cons at 9/5 with Bet365 to hedge my 7/1 on LibDems, so I'm banking on Lab not making it.
Starmer isn't good at rhetoric and that's a weakness for a politician.
For some reason, I got this buzzin' round my head for the first time since, well, ~2010.
Them's the breaks. And Starmer gets to relax at six every evening with his family.
But: enjoy!
*Should PB be on the national curriculum?
Which is probably the silliest thing I've read since the last speech from Johnson. At EVERY SINGLE by-election since the launch of Reform, it's gained a significantly lower share of votes cast than it got in any polls published beforehand. It's scarcely competed in any locals - except this year when it won just 2 of the over 300 seats it had a candidate in.
There is an almost-credible theory going round about "shy Reform supporters" - for which there's no evidence at all either way, except a few anecdotes . The theory might turn out to be accurate - but if it does, Reform's performance in this election will go completely against the past few years. Not impossible: the hoo-hah Reform's created around itself (with a bit of help from neurotic Tory fanboys and fangirls) may well have made up foe Reform's cringe-worthily amateur campaigning skills.
Whether that's true or not we won't know till tomorrow morning. Till then it's just a theory devoid of evidence.
I suspect the result will be LibDem 45/50, Tory 120/130, Ref 4/5, SNP 20/25, Lab 410/420
At the risk of damaging my non-existent PB-credibility-fu, where would one lay it off?
I can see it on PBX or another exchange in chunks of about £1, or backing the alternative. Do we have other options?
As soon as the polls close, the Site's Enforcers will be rounding up all those who gaily predicted NOM for all and sundry to view.
The show trials should begin within a week.
Uganda is scenic but chaotic and corrupt, and is likely what Rwanda would be like without the RPF
Not my own obviously.
Seems obvious to me that if the PM loses his seat then it's almost guaranteed that the Cons will switch places with the LDs.
This is my eve of poll forecast. I voted LD.
Lab 424
Con127
LD 49
SNP 22
Gr 2
PC 3
REF 2
OTH 3
NI 18
Turnout 61%
Lab 414
Con 144
LD 41
SNP 21
.. etc.
"60 minutes during which Hezbollah’s attacks did not stop for a single moment in all regions of the Golan and Galilee"
https://x.com/GlobalInfoFact/status/1808790179018092692
Israel cannot tolerate this, as it makes the northern slice of the country uninhabitable, as much as the southern chunk is endangered by Gaza. It now becomes existential as the part of Israel that remains liveable gets smaller and smaller
I expect Israel to go all-in on Hezbollah. It is a massive risk but they have no choice
I wonder if this was the Iran/Hez/Hamas plan all along. Tempt Israel into a grotesque war in Gaza, and let them lose all public sympathy (and expend vast amounts of blood and treasure). And then force them into ANOTHER war as they exhaustedly end the first
Anyway, my six year old's hot take is that the 'red team' are going to win because the 'blue team have made things really expensive'*. Not sure the blame is fairly apportioned, but as analyses go it's not bad overall. He also asked whether there were other teams, so I provided a brief introduction to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform. He couldn't really see why anyone would vote for Reform, thought the Greens had a point (I majored on the environment for them more than the Watermelon aspects) and asked me what the difference was really between the LDs and Labour, which is probably another thing a lot of voters will be pondering. I showed him a couple of videos of Ed Davey and he became an instant LD voter though.
So, there you have it: Red team win, blue team given a kicking, very few votes for Reform (he thought maybe the candidates mums and dads would vote for them), good day for Greens and big personal vote for Ed Davey. Bet accordingly/DYOR.
*his mum had a go at explaining the election to him a few weeks back when it was first called
2. 100
3. 100
4. 300
5. 200
6. 0
How big:
7. 30000
8. 25000
How small:
9. 19
10. 3000
11. 24
How many:
12. 13
13. 150
14. 400
15. 45
16. 17
17. 7
18. 5
19. 57
What percentage vote:
20. 25%
21. 13%
22. 35%
23. 37%
24. 43%
25. 85%
@Farooq
Of course when we jumped off, we ended up hitting the floor.
I actually LIVED in Egypt for a while, back when Cairo was tolerable
Newark
1988 - Tory
1992 - Spoiled ballot
1997 - Referendum
2001 - Tory (Candidate was a personal friend)
2005 - Tory (same again)
Sleaford & North Hykham
2010 - UKIP
2016 - Lincolnshire Independent
2016 (By election) - Lincolnshire Independent
2017 - Spoiled ballot
2019 - Spoiled ballot
2024 - ??? Probably spoiled ballot again. The Independents don't really inspire me theis time.
About those improving SKS stats........
That prediction looks ok. I'd put my own up but it is almost completely congruent with the Sporting Index spreads, so no need to.
Conservative hubris is remarkable. I remember circa 1986/1987 articles in the Sunday Times and Sunday Telegraph pondering who would be the Tory Prime Ministers during their 5th, 6th and 7th terms.
On the upside that means he is of the order Artiodactyla (even-toed ungulates).
On the downside that means he is potential lunch for followers of Abrahamic religions.
His refusal to offer any vision is costing him time off any honeymoon.
If it bleeds across into Labour votes, the PB lefty dreadcasters may be proven correct
I assume you will want the 8/13 to cover the score you had on the LD? (What odds did you get on him, btw? I got some at 7s,but mostly he was 9/2 until a few days ago.)
CNN:
No president has ever needed a public holiday like Joe Biden needs July 4.
I like TLDR (the youtube channel, not the concept) but in cases like this they cannot have insider knowledge and so are reduced to repeating polls and adding "gut feeling". It's a bit rude of me to characterise them such, but I'm annoyed by the rise of podcasts - which just means two or more people talking bollocks and getting paid for it - and prefer scripted lectures designed to be delivered to an audience.
The Tories will be comfortably above 120. The Lib Dems will be happy enough to break 40 and return to being given third place in the Commons business. Reform will struggle to get their two and the Greens their three.
However, the electorate is pretty pissed off, and this is the final warning for the current system.
I voted Tory again this morning (with zero enthusiasm and air of resignation) for a candidate I didn't even know the name of until I saw the ballot paper and have had zero election comms from. Not a single Tory leaflet or door knock. Indeed only Labour and English Democrats posted anything through at all.
I am praying that translates into a LAB > REF surge. Unlikely, but a man can dream