50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
I suspect it'll be less than 1,000 votes either way, and there'll be a recount to establish the winner.
That's what the campagin team tell me too. But I take what they say with a pinch of salt because their message is designed to keep me motivated. If I went on the even less good evidence of the posters I see and the door-step conversations I've had, it would be a green landslide.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
I used to love doing early mornings on polling day!
You just had to take care not to kick over the milk bottles - or, if you did, remember not to leave a leaflet.
Back in the day when milk bottles were a thing, obvs.
I’m going to treat myself to a little bottle of supermarket whisky for tonights celebrations before Keith taxes my income into oblivion. Any suggestions?
Any blend from Lidl
Lidl whiskies are Whyte and Mackay I believe and pretty good. Their unnamed single Speyside and Highland malts presumably come from Tamnavulin and Dalmore distilleries and cost £18
Damn this abscess as I am denied the opportunity to knock up the voters today.
Did you ever tell us *where* it was? Asking out of a spirit of scientific curiosity. No need to tell us if you haven't, though if it is a pilonidal one they are apparently real bastards.
I had a pilonidal abcess removed, as did my Dad. It was excruciating when it blew up but wasn’t especially painful while it healed - but it took several weeks of daily visits to the nurse for ‘packing’.
I forgot to tell PB that yesterday I was offered and accepted a Newly Qualified solicitor job at my current firm, starting in September. Career change (which some of you might remember) very nearly complete.
I've got a lawyer themed thread coming up this afternoon.
You should read it, it may inspire you to make another career move.
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
I used to love doing early mornings on polling day!
You just had to take care not to kick over the milk bottles - or, if you did, remember not to leave a leaflet.
Back in the day when milk bottles were a thing, obvs.
I forgot to tell PB that yesterday I was offered and accepted a Newly Qualified solicitor job at my current firm, starting in September. Career change (which some of you might remember) very nearly complete.
I've got a lawyer themed thread coming up this afternoon.
You should read it, it may inspire you to make another career move.
Especially if you’re using the Shakespeare quote…
Shakespeare should be banned for that quote. What do you expect from an antisemite? I mean have you read The Merchant of Venice?
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
Glad you made it back out safely
Yes, all the avocado skins littering the pavements. Dangerous.
Observations from East Yorkshire. Out early this morning to cut the front hedge (estate agent taking photos at lunchtime).
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
I’ve made the sensible decision to only watch the first few results tonight as I’m heading away for the weekend tomorrow morning. . Hoping Broxbourne doesn’t end up in recount territory and declares by 1:30 ish as I used to be highly involved down there and would like to know how it goes.
It'll most likely be the smallest Tory majority ever in Broxbourne.
Doxxing myself, but democratic duty done. I have voted Liberal Democrat, and hopefully someone in Bradford is returning the favour by voting Green for me.
Bowling pavilion I think is 7/10 on the whimsical-polling-place-o-meter. I’m sure someone here can easily beat that.
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
As the Tories look into the electoral abyss be happy in the knowledge that, on policy, you have won - the supposed party of Labour is thoroughly neoliberalised and will make Thatcher proud (again...)
I do hate FPTP, but this is the first election of my adulthood where it may actually provide an outcome I will enjoy. Not the Labour "supermajority" - but rather a Tory wipe out without many or any Reform MPs. Here's to hoping that the right wing vote is so inefficient that neither party gets significant representation in parliament and they become an irrelevance against a Labour government and a Liberal Democrat Opposition that tries to push them leftwards. (These are my hopes, not predictions)
I still think Tories will get <100 seats; so many people seem to dislike the idea of Tories in power that I can't see their vote share being particularly efficient. I also think that Labour are going to get a ridiculous majority on a vote share and raw number of votes below Corbyn's 2017 result. I do think the Greens are on to finally have more than 1 MP, and we may even be able to get the 4 we've been targeting. But who knows...
This will be my first time as an adult living under a Labour government. And all I can think is here comes the new boss...
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
As the Tories look into the electoral abyss be happy in the knowledge that, on policy, you have won - the supposed party of Labour is thoroughly neoliberalised and will make Thatcher proud (again...)
I’ve made the sensible decision to only watch the first few results tonight as I’m heading away for the weekend tomorrow morning. . Hoping Broxbourne doesn’t end up in recount territory and declares by 1:30 ish as I used to be highly involved down there and would like to know how it goes.
It'll most likely be the smallest Tory majority ever in Broxbourne.
Well I suspect it will be tighter than the 6500 margin in 1997. I think it will be slightly more comfortable than the MRPs have suggested as it has been way too tight in those and flipping in several of them.
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
That road in Sutton Coldfield is very posh. It's shocking that an attack could happen in that type of area.
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
Yikes. But not random.
Yes, it was obviously politically motivated. I do feel that attacks on politicians, canvassers etc (of whatever political hue), should be prosecuted especially harshly given that they are attacks on democracy itself as well as on the person.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
How many Reform UK MPs do you think will make it to the end of the parliament? I've seen people not prepared to win council level seats drop out after a few months after not knowing what to do - at a national level with the scrutiny involved you have to imagine some of those 13 will be randos who can't cope with the work or added spotlight who'd rather drop out that learn the job.
"Emma Raducanu says she did not know general election vote was on Thursday
At a press conference, Raducanu was asked if she would vote before practising on Thursday, and if she would keep an eye on the general election in the evening. “No,” she replied, smiling. “I think I’ll have a lie-in, then I’ll come to practise.
“I didn’t even know it was tomorrow, to be honest! Thanks for letting me know.”"
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
Glad you made it back out safely
Yes, all the avocado skins littering the pavements. Dangerous.
Used to live in Bristol and you stumble from some nice areas into something that resembled The Wire.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
How many Reform UK MPs do you think will make it to the end of the parliament? I've seen people not prepared to win council level seats drop out after a few months after not knowing what to do - at a national level with the scrutiny involved you have to imagine some of those 13 will be randos who can't cope with the work or added spotlight who'd rather drop out that learn the job.
Definitely. For all he wouldn't like the grind and mundanity of backbench MP work Farage would easily manage, but few of the others are professional mainstream politicians like him, and the party may not be set up to support them as much.
Re-posted from the previous thread after I was cut-off in my prime after less than a minute!
It's slightly disconcerting that there's a significant difference between the number of seats allocated by YouGov, based on its own final election poll for 'The Times' and the number of seats allocated by the time-honoured ElectoralCalculus which specialises in producing their own seat calculations, based, we have to presume, on identical information.
In this instance, YouGov calculates that Labour will win 431 seats compred with EC's 458 seats, a difference of 27 seats. In terms of Tory seats,YouGov comes up with a total of 102 seats, whereas EC calculates the Blue Team's tally as being 75 seats. Again an equal and opposite difference of 27 seats, which is sort of reassuring insofar as it goes. Obviously the two calculations of seat numbers are based on different statistical models and therefore some difference in their totals was only to be expected. However a difference of 27 seats does seem quite significant, especially if one doubles it to 54 seats in arriving at the impact on the overall majority involved.
Thank goodness no money is involved here as a result of such a discrepancy ... Oh wait!
After the 1992 election - which was close and Labour had been expected to win - you could drive from Torquey to Stranraer through exclusively Tory held land, with choice of a west or east route up England.
"Prisca Thevenot, Macronist spokeswoman, has been attacked in her seat in Hauts de Seine 8eme. She got away unscathed but one of her team has been hospitalised with a broken jaw."
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
Yikes. But not random.
Yes, it was obviously politically motivated. I do feel that attacks on politicians, canvassers etc (of whatever political hue), should be prosecuted especially harshly given that they are attacks on democracy itself as well as on the person.
Definitely a severe aggravating factor when it comes to sentencing, or should be.
I revealed to sister woolie the MRPs. She's in Broadland and Fakenham and slightly excited her vote might actually make a difference for once!
It's a special feature of this election. For the first time ever (50 years of voting) I am voting in a GE where my seat can change hands, and this must be true for millions.
Also unique: the sheer number of seats where it genuinely isn't known what the result will be combined with the number that will change hands.
FWIW, I live in East Hants (in a very well to do Tory village) but there are three or four new yellow diamonds up in the place now. However, there was only one teller there this morning, and that was the one with the blue rosette. A lady came up with a roster on her bike before saying she was scurrying off to see the others so there's clearly some form of GOTV operation here.
I voted at 7.51am and there were already about 25-30 names off the list.
I don't think turnout will be that low. I also think Damian Hinds will hold because he's just put in more effort and has a better operation here, although I'm conscious most working people will vote after work and that can be quite different.
Observations from East Yorkshire. Out early this morning to cut the front hedge (estate agent taking photos at lunchtime).
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
What were the voters like? Were they:
- Ordinary working people, looking cheerful but determined - Dainty old ladies with twin-set and pearls, brooches and disconsolate husbands in tow, looking worried - Meaty looking men with crew cuts, football tops, slightly scary tattoos, an XL Bully and an angry demeanour - Even angrier looking youngsters with bright coloured hair dye, draped in Palestine flags?
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I revealed to sister woolie the MRPs. She's in Broadland and Fakenham and slightly excited her vote might actually make a difference for once!
It's a special feature of this election. For the first time ever (50 years of voting) I am voting in a GE where my seat can change hands, and this must be true for millions.
Also unique: the sheer number of seats where it genuinely isn't known what the result will be combined with the number that will change hands.
Typical Tories - they've spent years making FPTP elections relevant and interesting for more and more voters, and now some of them want to get rid of it....
I revealed to sister woolie the MRPs. She's in Broadland and Fakenham and slightly excited her vote might actually make a difference for once!
It's a special feature of this election. For the first time ever (50 years of voting) I am voting in a GE where my seat can change hands, and this must be true for millions.
Also unique: the sheer number of seats where it genuinely isn't known what the result will be combined with the number that will change hands.
Yes, some of us in seats which last changed hands 100 years ago, and then only briefly, may end up with disappointingly normal results, but the Tory collapse may have fulfilled its own prophecy a bit as people see a chance for impact.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, they've VONC'ed their main man before that law was even in place!
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, they've VONC'ed their main man before that law was even in place!
Off to vote by e-bike soon, to do my bit in treading down the earth on the political grave of Generation Headless Chicken Tory - two puns there in one, for @TSE .
The big news is that I found a (frozen) pheasant in the freezer, so it's air fried pheasant and Red then English Sparkling wine tonight.
My voting decision has not exactly been difficult here in Ashfield. The choices are:
- a Tory who has vanished, - Lib Dems who do not exist, - the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election, - the Leeanderthal Man, - Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally, I concede. Since Ashfield Labour has been rather bonkers for a decade or two.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically, in terms of the extra autonomy we need), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
I revealed to sister woolie the MRPs. She's in Broadland and Fakenham and slightly excited her vote might actually make a difference for once!
It's a special feature of this election. For the first time ever (50 years of voting) I am voting in a GE where my seat can change hands, and this must be true for millions.
Also unique: the sheer number of seats where it genuinely isn't known what the result will be combined with the number that will change hands.
Yes, true for me too! My constituency has always been safe Tory, and most of the other places that I've lived, as a student, etc, have been safe Labour. It's a bit of a novelty voting in what is now a marginal, as is casting two votes (one a proxy). A lovely day for it too. We will wander down to the polling station as a family after tea.
50,000 of these have been hand delivered in Bristol Central this morning.
I did St Paul's which was festooned with green stake-boards and posters. It's difficult to stay grounded and remember that you can't tell what's going to happen from within a campaign: it feels SO much like a Green win.
Then back across the border to vote Labour in North Somerset.
Shattered already and there's nearly 24 hours to go.
Compliments to all of you who are fighting for your beliefs today. Bravo.
Glad you made it back out safely
Yes, all the avocado skins littering the pavements. Dangerous.
Used to live in Bristol and you stumble from some nice areas into something that resembled The Wire.
I’d be surprised if it has gentrified much.
"Thin line between heaven and here" - Reginald "Bubbles" Cousins
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Good morning from Florence. Being an hour ahead makes it very unlikely I’ll stay up to see the full results come in - a shame as there are simply so many Tories due to receive their comeuppance.
My final predix
Labour 38 Tories 20 Reform 15 Lib Dems 12 Green 6
I think Labour will win over 400, the Tories under 100, and the Lib Dems over 50. However I think the Tories will secure Official Opposition status.
I think Corbyn will lose Islington North, but the Greens will take the Bristol seat, and one other. Reform will take Clacton and Ashfield but otherwise fall short.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
I live in a three-way marginal (Con (incumbent), Lab, Lib Dem). I've just voted LD (I don't think I've voted Conservative since 2017...), so here's the scores on the door, leaflet-wise.
Lib Dem: 6 Lots of national boilerplate stuff; little of direct relevance to the constituency. A heaven for bar chart lovers. One personalised leaflet that *may* be handwritten, but was probably printed to look so (and quite well, too). Disappointing local issues not mentioned more.
Con: 4 Does have mention of 'Conservatives'. All about local issues and what he (the current MP) has done for the area.
Labour: 2 Candidate not local: says she will "make the constituency her home.". Nothing about local issues in either leaflet. Uninspiring.
Independent: 1 Good leaflet, lot of info about him; lots about his stance on local issues. I seriously considered voting for him.
Party of women: 1 A small leaflet, nothing about local issues. Only distinctive feature is the name/picture of the candidate and the constituency.
Green: 1 Inside, boilerplate national, outside local issues. But a few good mentions of issues that matter locally, e.g. East-West Rail
Reform: 1 big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
TBF, the Cons leaflets seemed much less boilerplate and in tune with the issues facing the constituency. Labour seemed to be a typical parachuted-in candidate with zero local interest; the Lib Dem disappointingly uninterested in local issues.
But I couldn't vote Conservative...
(The Lib Dem teller outside the cricket pavilion (our polling station) said there had been fifty people so far, and it was much slower than he expected. I might go around the other polling stations in the town later to see if I can gain any intel from those...)
Observations from East Yorkshire. Out early this morning to cut the front hedge (estate agent taking photos at lunchtime).
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
Any suggestion that voter ID is slowing down the process? I haven't voted in person since the ID rules, but my dad says he prefers to vote in person for the feel of it and he said that the queue was mostly because it took longer for people to get their IDs / be reminded they needed an ID and then complaining, etc.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
I live in a three-way marginal (Con (incumbent), Lab, Lib Dem). I've just voted LD (I don't think I've voted Conservative since 2017...), so here's the scores on the door, leaflet-wise.
Lib Dem: 6 Lots of national boilerplate stuff; little of direct relevance to the constituency. A heaven for bar chart lovers. One personalised leaflet that *may* be handwritten, but was probably printed to look so (and quite well, too). Disappointing local issues not mentioned more.
Con: 4 Does have mention of 'Conservatives'. All about local issues and what he (the current MP) has done for the area.
Labour: 2 Candidate not local: says she will "make the constituency her home.". Nothing about local issues in either leaflet. Uninspiring.
Independent: 1 Good leaflet, lot of info about him; lots about his stance on local issues. I seriously considered voting for him.
Party of women: 1 A small leaflet, nothing about local issues. Only distinctive feature is the name/picture of the candidate and the constituency.
Green: 1 Inside, boilerplate national, outside local issues. But a few good mentions of issues that matter locally, e.g. East-West Rail
TBF, the Cons leaflets seemed much less boilerplate and in tune with the issues facing the constituency. Labour seemed to be a typical parachuted-in candidate with zero local interest; the Lib Dem disappointingly uninterested in local issues.
But I couldn't vote Conservative...
(The Lib Dem teller outside the cricket pavilion (our polling station) said there had been fifty people so far, and it was much slower than he expected. I might go around the other polling stations in the town later to see if I can gain any intel from those...)
I forgot Reform: 1 big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
Good morning from Florence. Being an hour ahead makes it very unlikely I’ll stay up to see the full results come in - a shame as there are simply so many Tories due to receive their comeuppance.
My final predix
Labour 38 Tories 20 Reform 15 Lib Dems 12 Green 6
I think Labour will win over 400, the Tories under 100, and the Lib Dems over 50. However I think the Tories will secure Official Opposition status.
I think Corbyn will lose Islington North, but the Greens will take the Bristol seat, and one other. Reform will take Clacton and Ashfield but otherwise fall short.
Our family fell in love with Florence at first sight
I think you are probably spot on with your predictions
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
The obvious answer is Lee Anderson (assuming that he's returned as an MP). Though he could do with more than a little training himself...
On how to run offices, the Leeanderthal Man should be fine. His pre-MP job was as Gloria de Piero's Office Manager. If Farage and Anderson get in, that makes them either the Lone Ranger and Tonto, or Don Quizote and Sancho Panza, or Hardy and Laurel.
I can imagine them sharing a pint in a bar as a model for their political process. "We have only got 15 cents!"
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
The obvious answer is Lee Anderson (assuming that he's returned as an MP). Though he could do with more than a little training himself...
Not sure about the constituency side but in Parliament there is a massive mobilisation to give every new MP who wants one an experienced member of House staff as a buddy. They can show them all the facilities and answer questions on procedural stuff like how to table questions etc. I’ve been an MP’s buddy before and it’s an incredibly rewarding experience.
Observations from East Yorkshire. Out early this morning to cut the front hedge (estate agent taking photos at lunchtime).
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
Any suggestion that voter ID is slowing down the process? I haven't voted in person since the ID rules, but my dad says he prefers to vote in person for the feel of it and he said that the queue was mostly because it took longer for people to get their IDs / be reminded they needed an ID and then complaining, etc.
Couldn't tell you, I'm afraid. I voted by post the day I received the ballot paper.
I don't think I understand the spreadsheet linked to in the header. It doesn't seem to have all the constituencies on there. E.g. I can't see ANME.
Row 528 on the final sheet
OHHH! I thought the different links in the header were for the same spreadsheet but different sheets. Got it now, thanks.
The final spreadsheet does contain all the results, but there's no live update in it to the results that the first two should pull in. Having all the results try to pull in in one spreadsheet would just make the whole lot fall over.
Our household has all voted now, despite my other half doing a Boris with her ID
One for Brendan Clarke Smith and one for Jo White.
OK, vote cast. Pleasantly surprised to find a small queue formed at the polling station. No party reps outside today just the dudes running the station
Cannot escape the election here, over a thousand miles away from home, because the local rag's front page tells me that a town councillor has bravely put a bet - on Labour, natch. The winnings could hardly cover the exchange risk fgs.
Observations from East Yorkshire. Out early this morning to cut the front hedge (estate agent taking photos at lunchtime).
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
What were the voters like? Were they:
- Ordinary working people, looking cheerful but determined - Dainty old ladies with twin-set and pearls, brooches and disconsolate husbands in tow, looking worried - Meaty looking men with crew cuts, football tops, slightly scary tattoos, an XL Bully and an angry demeanour - Even angrier looking youngsters with bright coloured hair dye, draped in Palestine flags?
I think we need to know.
You missed a few clichés and stereotypes off that list. There's no need for sarcasm.
The telegraph have an article saying Reform will win 13 seats.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
I doubt they will win that many. Also if Nigel does take Clacton there has to be a reasonable chance that he’s found in breach of Parliamentary rules triggering a recall effort before long.
It is interesting that the Welsh labour government is to introduce a law in the Senedd to make it illegal to lie
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
citation needed
No citation possible. The "Welsh labour government" have not done this - its every other party forcing it through. Labour opposed it
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
A bill backed by your Conservatives and opposed by Labour. Only you could find a way to spin that as something being done by the Welsh labour government.
You are talking nonsense and maybe you will believe the Guardian
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”
Comments
If she still lives in Bromley, it’s a seat worth voting in.
You just had to take care not to kick over the milk bottles - or, if you did, remember not to leave a leaflet.
Back in the day when milk bottles were a thing, obvs.
Polling station at the top of the road. Usually a steady flow of voters throughout the day. Less of a flow and more of a torrent so far. Lots of cars parking up on the road to vote. Far more people than usual walking to vote. My neighbour came back just after 7.30 grumbling about how busy it was.
Good morning, everyone.
Candidate halts campaign after son is 'beaten up'
A group of about eight people arrived on motorbikes and cars before attacking a victim with a baseball bat, West Midlands Police said.
The road where it happened is actually pretty posh and very quiet. It's hard to imagine an attack like this happening there. I'm actually pretty shocked by this.
I do hate FPTP, but this is the first election of my adulthood where it may actually provide an outcome I will enjoy. Not the Labour "supermajority" - but rather a Tory wipe out without many or any Reform MPs. Here's to hoping that the right wing vote is so inefficient that neither party gets significant representation in parliament and they become an irrelevance against a Labour government and a Liberal Democrat Opposition that tries to push them leftwards. (These are my hopes, not predictions)
I still think Tories will get <100 seats; so many people seem to dislike the idea of Tories in power that I can't see their vote share being particularly efficient. I also think that Labour are going to get a ridiculous majority on a vote share and raw number of votes below Corbyn's 2017 result. I do think the Greens are on to finally have more than 1 MP, and we may even be able to get the 4 we've been targeting. But who knows...
This will be my first time as an adult living under a Labour government. And all I can think is here comes the new boss...
Early night for me.
If that's the case who is going to train those MPs to know what to do - i.e. how to run their office and provide support to their constituents...
There's no civic duty today, only civic pleasure
I’d be surprised if it has gentrified much.
Re-posted from the previous thread after I was cut-off in my prime after less than a minute!
It's slightly disconcerting that there's a significant difference between the number of seats allocated by YouGov, based on its own final election poll for 'The Times' and the number of seats allocated by the time-honoured ElectoralCalculus which specialises in producing their own seat calculations, based, we have to presume, on identical information.
In this instance, YouGov calculates that Labour will win 431 seats compred with EC's 458 seats, a difference of 27 seats.
In terms of Tory seats,YouGov comes up with a total of 102 seats, whereas EC calculates the Blue Team's tally as being 75 seats.
Again an equal and opposite difference of 27 seats, which is sort of reassuring insofar as it goes.
Obviously the two calculations of seat numbers are based on different statistical models and therefore some difference in their totals was only to be expected.
However a difference of 27 seats does seem quite significant, especially if one doubles it to 54 seats in arriving at the impact on the overall majority involved.
Thank goodness no money is involved here as a result of such a discrepancy ... Oh wait!
How times change.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_General_Election,_1992.svg
Also unique: the sheer number of seats where it genuinely isn't known what the result will be combined with the number that will change hands.
I voted at 7.51am and there were already about 25-30 names off the list.
I don't think turnout will be that low. I also think Damian Hinds will hold because he's just put in more effort and has a better operation here, although I'm conscious most working people will vote after work and that can be quite different.
- Ordinary working people, looking cheerful but determined
- Dainty old ladies with twin-set and pearls, brooches and disconsolate husbands in tow, looking worried
- Meaty looking men with crew cuts, football tops, slightly scary tattoos, an XL Bully and an angry demeanour
- Even angrier looking youngsters with bright coloured hair dye, draped in Palestine flags?
I think we need to know.
There will be few if any politicians left !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(For the avoidance of doubt, the comment above is a joke. Election Day is today for everyone)
Off to vote by e-bike soon, to do my bit in treading down the earth on the political grave of Generation Headless Chicken Tory - two puns there in one, for @TSE .
The big news is that I found a (frozen) pheasant in the freezer, so it's air fried pheasant and Red then English Sparkling wine tonight.
My voting decision has not exactly been difficult here in Ashfield. The choices are:
- a Tory who has vanished,
- Lib Dems who do not exist,
- the Ashfield Independent who is on about 15 criminal charges in 2025 that he has fought like Trump to delay until after the election,
- the Leeanderthal Man,
- Or the real person Labour candidate who has had a career and a job, and is not a Spad in short trousers.
It's a bit of a punt as with Starmer nationally, I concede. Since Ashfield Labour has been rather bonkers for a decade or two.
The politics are interesting; I supported Brexit (still do, basically, in terms of the extra autonomy we need), and levelling up to rebalance the country - to the extent that I joined a political party, the Cons, for the first time ever, as a small way of helping that process.
Then it turned out that the promises were meaningless, and this generation of Tory leadership are a generation of backstabbers.
I left after HS2 was canned, which left £50bn being p*ssed away on a branch line to Birmingham, because all the benefits are about long term capacity, and shifts from airline to rail and freight to rail. They will even burn down their own signature achievements such as they are - more house building, better quality housing over time, major progress on the environmental shift and so on.
So Labour it is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2gme2y98no
https://x.com/search?q=#dogsatpollingstations&src=trend_click&f=live&vertical=trends
And if the mum of these has time to vote, she could post 'quads at polling stations'.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpe31jkjl59o
Never know.
Good luck!
Being an hour ahead makes it very unlikely I’ll stay up to see the full results come in - a shame as there are simply so many Tories due to receive their comeuppance.
My final predix
Labour 38
Tories 20
Reform 15
Lib Dems 12
Green 6
I think Labour will win over 400, the Tories under 100, and the Lib Dems over 50. However I think the Tories will secure Official Opposition status.
I think Corbyn will lose Islington North, but the Greens will take the Bristol seat, and one other. Reform will take Clacton and Ashfield but otherwise fall short.
Labour are opposed to Plaids version, so are bringing forward their own
Lib Dem: 6
Lots of national boilerplate stuff; little of direct relevance to the constituency. A heaven for bar chart lovers. One personalised leaflet that *may* be handwritten, but was probably printed to look so (and quite well, too). Disappointing local issues not mentioned more.
Con: 4
Does have mention of 'Conservatives'. All about local issues and what he (the current MP) has done for the area.
Labour: 2
Candidate not local: says she will "make the constituency her home.". Nothing about local issues in either leaflet. Uninspiring.
Independent: 1
Good leaflet, lot of info about him; lots about his stance on local issues. I seriously considered voting for him.
Party of women: 1
A small leaflet, nothing about local issues. Only distinctive feature is the name/picture of the candidate and the constituency.
Green: 1
Inside, boilerplate national, outside local issues. But a few good mentions of issues that matter locally, e.g. East-West Rail
Reform: 1
big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
TBF, the Cons leaflets seemed much less boilerplate and in tune with the issues facing the constituency. Labour seemed to be a typical parachuted-in candidate with zero local interest; the Lib Dem disappointingly uninterested in local issues.
But I couldn't vote Conservative...
(The Lib Dem teller outside the cricket pavilion (our polling station) said there had been fifty people so far, and it was much slower than he expected. I might go around the other polling stations in the town later to see if I can gain any intel from those...)
What though is EC 1 ???
big, gurning pictures of Tice and Farage. All national issues. The only constituency-related info is the candidate's name and the constituency. Not even a piccie.
I think you are probably spot on with your predictions
I can imagine them sharing a pint in a bar as a model for their political process. "We have only got 15 cents!"
https://youtu.be/Aj8uw71Pf4w?t=56
Our household has all voted now, despite my other half doing a Boris with her ID
One for Brendan Clarke Smith and one for Jo White.
Are you a Lib Dem, by any chance?
AKA people using it?
They were people, @TimS.
Tue 2 Jul 2024 21.06 BST
Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal
Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026
The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.
Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.
After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.
He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”