BLUE WALL: think Somerset council is one to watch closely this afternoon. If Lib Dems make big gains there that will really worry a lot of parly party. A Tory MP said to me - remember most of us are still in the south of England and so blue wall fights very important to us.
JRM country. The Tories are in trouble.
This and the Labour (slowish) progress in the Red Wall suggest to me that maybe just maybe the Brexit offensive is getting close to culmination. There have been a couple of years now of relentless attrition to the promises and benefits of Brexit, and there's a continued lack of clarity of war aims. But still, the majority of natural Brexit supporters are remaining loyal.
Opposition need to judge at what point the whole Brexit front is weakened enough that it's allowed to be mentioned again without the threat of dangerous escalation.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Roots?
Definition 2
Yes, but metaphors are sometimes ruled out by being too close to the plaintext. Also problematic to call beans a branch of the canning art, or the flower of English cuisine or the fruit of one's labour
Just seen Dowden on Sky, what a calculating chancer he is. He creates a -800 seats scare story a month ago to frighten the voters which was a pure fiction. He then compares the results so far of a possible -200+ seats score as a contented situation to be in.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Arf
Given what @kinabulu told about the unbelievable bin service in Camden, I am not surprised Labour are winning all.
We will collect your rubbish weekly, and let the rest of the country hit the landfill target.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
That view of the capital city is quite standard in many countries - that is is entirely made up of smug, rich bar stewards who run the whole country to their personal advantage.
The animosity towards London, is a candle vs flame-thrower when you compare it to France vs Paris.
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies have lower inflation than the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies is higher in the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Oh Jeez. I wasn't bothering to reply to your comment. If you really think inflation isn't going to hit us hard, and probably worse than others, then go tell that to the Bank of England.
But then you tried to tell us that there is no link between Supply & Demand and inflation.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
I don't think that's going to look silly, not today or any time soon.
I can't come up with a word for that London demographic that is better than 'metropolitan' (insufficiently descriptive), but I wonder whether they are in any more touch with the rest of the country than the Chancellor.
What happens when Rachel R or whoever discovers that the 1% don't have enough wealth to pay for it all and has to hit the 10% or the 20%?
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies is higher in the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Not to mention the Euro is down against USD by a similar amount as well along with loads of other currencies. Maybe, just maybe, it's because the Fed is tightening at a much faster than expected rate and undoing QE while the Bank (and ECB) has bottled it on monetary tightening.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies have lower inflation than the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Pound has been steadily rising against the Euro for the past year, although it’s off a couple of percent this month.
It’s falling against the dollar, because the BoE has not been as aggressive as the Fed when it comes to interest rate rises. Which likely means more BoE rises are in the offing over the summer.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies is higher in the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Oh Jeez. I wasn't bothering to reply to your comment. If you really think inflation isn't going to hit us hard, and probably worse than others, then go tell that to the Bank of England.
But then you tried to tell us that there is no link between Supply & Demand and inflation.
I guess you've never studied economics.
You are a lying troll, I never said that. Stop trolling.
Of course there is a link between Supply and Demand and Inflation, stop lying you silly deceitful troll.
Inflation is hitting us hard, because of global conditions, not because of Brexit, which is why its hitting the Eurozone and USA even harder at this moment of time.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
117% increase in the LD vote, very impressive (I have been on the introductory 'spin your results' course)
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 1h Losing Westminster and Wandsworth is a PR disaster for the Tories. But in the Red Wall battleground that matters most for the next general election, they’re holding on - like keeping Nuneaton and actually making gains in Hartlepool overnight. It’s still a tale of two Englands.
Guido is somehow worse to read than the Daily Fail site
Guido's like East Enders. Something I watched once and vowed never to watch again. So when posters drag large chunks of his excruciating site over here I find it offensive
Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
Note the details of Hull - Labour's vote went up sharply, but in the two seats that the LibDems needed to take control, the Conservative vote swung massively to them. So tactical voting in action, of a different kind.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Guido is somehow worse to read than the Daily Fail site
Guido's like East Enders. Something I watched once and vowed never to watch again. So when posters drag large chunks of his excruciating site over here I find it offensive
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Bart lives in Tory La La land where there are only sunny uplands regardless of reality.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Yes, various sources have the Russian tank fleet at between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks, either serviceable or fixable.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
You may find it irritating but it is a view widely shared
Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
Note the details of Hull - Labour's vote went up sharply, but in the two seats that the LibDems needed to take control, the Conservative vote swung massively to them. So tactical voting in action, of a different kind.
When you loathe a government/PM as is the case now logic tells you tactical voting is the obvious outcome. I myself voted Lib Dem yesterday
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
You may find it irritating but it is a view widely shared
It is a fucking stupid view. Especially when spouted by people who are intelligent enough to know better.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
The difference is between the smug, entitled people who only think of themselves, and the well-educated who think of the country and how to make it better for everyone.
How shit are Labour in Enfield lol. If Boris wasn't a massive dickback I think the local Tories would have taken it, all I hear from my family and school friends who live in Enfield is that the Labour council are a bunch of wankers.
Guido is somehow worse to read than the Daily Fail site
Guido's like East Enders. Something I watched once and vowed never to watch again. So when posters drag large chunks of his excruciating site over here I find it offensive
No need to read it
I note you are never shy about condemning posts that you find offensive whether addressed to you or not. They sully the page.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
The difference is between the smug, entitled people who only think of themselves, and the well-educated who think of the country and how to make it better for everyone.
Precisely.
If your response to low paid people getting an above inflation pay rise via market conditions encouraging that is "but that's going to cost me more" then you may not be caring out everyone else.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I thought Dom went to a state school, though not certain.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Yes, various sources have the Russian tank fleet at between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks, either serviceable or fixable.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
This chap - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA - thinks there are about 6K Russian tanks in the storage depots. And that less than half of those are capable of being returned to service - lots of hulls with no turrets left to rust in the open air.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
The difference is between the smug, entitled people who only think of themselves, and the well-educated who think of the country and how to make it better for everyone.
By voting for the Tories who cut funding for councils in the North of England by half? Well, it's a view as they say.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
The really big known unknown is just how well can the Lib Dems perform at the next GE?
We are in uncharted territory in so many ways. If inflation is still a concern this time next year, and the BoE does actually raise rates to something like 3%, then that could really hurt the Tories in the South East.
The national polls aren't suggesting a big Lib Dem surge, but that might change closer to the election, and they might benefit from the pain that mortgage holders will suffer.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies is higher in the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Oh Jeez. I wasn't bothering to reply to your comment. If you really think inflation isn't going to hit us hard, and probably worse than others, then go tell that to the Bank of England.
But then you tried to tell us that there is no link between Supply & Demand and inflation.
I guess you've never studied economics.
I never said that.
It is exactly what you said.
You claimed that restricted supplies had no effect on UK inflation. I called you out for it then and I do so again.
You have never studied economics, that much is blindingly obvious.
So on top of being a thoroughly nasty piece of work who would "happily see the Troubles return to Northern Ireland" as a price for a pure Brexit, you are also clueless.
And on the trolling front, you are last man standing. I use a VPN. I know that may be confusing to a thicko like you but it's not complicated. I hide my presence online because I don't like data tracking and wish to remain anonymous without cookie trackers spying on me.
That I have divulged intricate details about where I live (see convos with tlg86 who walks through my neighbourhood every day) is an obvious demonstration that I am not a troll but to a thicko like you, seemingly not.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans? ...
Only someone who's never cooked their own breakfast ? So the idle elite.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I thought Dom went to a state school, though not certain.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
They didn't.
I voted for Lisa Nandy, despite living in London, so don't blame me.
Good Morning everyone. Bright and sunny here this morning, a contrast, my diary tells me to 12 months ago.
And the local election results seem to be better, for those of us of a leftward inclination.
We have now elections locally, unlike Colchester, just up the road, which I gather, has rejected the Tories, although it's not quite sure what will replace them. The big news locally is that McColls, who run the only convenience store, and, importantly, Post Office here have gone bust. What, we wonder, does that mean for the Post Office?
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Thanks for this. It sounds great. I've added it to the wish list.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
Has it been that bad? That you have to eat nursery food for weeks?
Sympathies, if so. Is it Long Covid?
I had a nasty bout of the C-Virus in Dec 2021 which left me quasi-delirious for a few days, but my recovery was pretty swift. It is peculiar how it takes people so differently
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
They didn't.
Four of the five last Labour leaders - Blair, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer - are associated with not only part of a North London set but a very closely defined North London set (Dartmouth Park / Camden / Islington).
Anyone who does not think that is a problem for Labour and its mindset needs to get out more.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
So you couldn't thin of a better example, one that had actually happened? Whereas I gave an example where it had happened. Having a choice of just three was crass.
After 2010, there were plenty of Labour supporters - I think on here, but it was just before I stopped lurking - who complained about the 'stitch-up' in the coalition negotiations. 'Fairness' seems very much to depend on whether something advantages you or not.
Not standing also has other disadvantages: it pi**es people off who might have voted for your party (i.e. there's no way in heck I'd vote Green in our constituency at the next GE, however good the candidate), you 'lose' solid voters who would vote for you next time, and you lose real data on how many people in a constituency currently support your party.
Sorry you say I can't think of an actual example? As I pointed out every election where more than 2 people have stood is an example and if you want some extreme examples Stockton in the Alliance years, the Scottish constituency (North East) where in the past it has been a 4 way fight with just hundreds of votes in it, etc. But in fact 100s of the seats are ones where a party standing or standing down can change the result.
I'm sorry JJ, whereas I like most of your posts I find these appallingly arrogant. It takes a lot of work and money to stand and it is also difficult to find people to do so, so to expect someone to do that who has no chance of winning and who will almost certainly then cause their next preferred candidate to lose is asking a lot. Good on those that do, but don't criticize those that don't.
As I said if you don't like what happens (And I don't also. I would prefer more to stand and have a greater choice), don't blame the candidates and the parties, blame the system that drives that outcome.
Tory source: “It seems somewhat unlikely that voters in Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet and seats across England were motivated by Douglas Ross. It’s a bad election for the party across the UK for one main reason - anger at Boris and partygate.” https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1522501706281623552
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
They didn't.
Four of the five last Labour leaders - Blair, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer - are associated with not only part of a North London set but a very closely defined North London set (Dartmouth Park / Camden / Islington).
Anyone who does not think that is a problem for Labour and its mindset needs to get out more.
Two of the last three Tory prime ministers as well as multiple members of their Cabinets went to a single elite secondary school. Anyone who does not think that is a problem for the Tories and their mindset needs to get out more.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
Recently is not due to Brexit now, is it? A freely floating exchange rate is a very good thing for a plethora of reasons and acts as a shock absorber for the economy.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies is higher in the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
Oh Jeez. I wasn't bothering to reply to your comment. If you really think inflation isn't going to hit us hard, and probably worse than others, then go tell that to the Bank of England.
But then you tried to tell us that there is no link between Supply & Demand and inflation.
I guess you've never studied economics.
I never said that.
It is exactly what you said.
You claimed that restricted supplies had no effect on UK inflation. I called you out for it then and I do so again.
You have never studied economics, that much is blindingly obvious.
So on top of being a thoroughly nasty piece of work who would "happily see the Troubles return to Northern Ireland" as a price for a pure Brexit, you are also clueless.
And on the trolling front, you are last man standing. I use a VPN. I know that may be confusing to a thicko like you but it's not complicated. I hide my presence online because I don't like data tracking and wish to remain anonymous without cookie trackers spying on me.
That I have divulged intricate details about where I live (see convos with tlg86 who walks through my neighbourhood every day) is an obvious demonstration that I am not a troll but to a thicko like you, seemingly not.
Liar, liar.
Please stop trolling me, I never said that supply and demand does not affect inflation. You are lying pure and simple. If you keep lying about me, I will ask @PBModerator to get involved because this is just pure trolling.
I also never said I would "happily" see the Troubles return to Northern Ireland, that is another lie. I said that if the Troubles returned then that would be the fault of whoever resorted to violence and the risk of that does not trump democracy. That Brexit, being democratically requested, is more important than threats or risks of violence. But if violence happened I never said "happily", it would be with regret that it had happened. So another lie by you. You have no integrity and are trolling me with multiple lies.
You're trolling right now lying about me. I never said Supply and Demand does not affect inflation. Stop lying if you don't want to be a troll.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
You may find it irritating but it is a view widely shared
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
Has it been that bad? That you have to eat nursery food for weeks?
Sympathies, if so. Is it Long Covid?
I had a nasty bout of the C-Virus in Dec 2021 which left me quasi-delirious for a few days, but my recovery was pretty swift. It is peculiar how it takes people so differently
Is quasi-delerious for a few days at a time not common state for you Leon
Anyone got the inside track on Cumberland? Maybe cyclefree? That's the stunning result so far. Three Conservative MP's. Thought it was a stretch target for Labour, but wasn't close. Overall. Not too different than I was expecting tbh. Little worse for the Tories. Still a fair few, particularly in the south, to declare.
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
@NickPalmer is one of the best posters on the site without a doubt.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
I'm not a monarchist but I do find talk of her death rather distasteful.
However, if she does die in the next two years I think Boris Johnson (if still PM) will do well out of it. I know that's an awful thing to say but as we saw with Ukraine, he's good when sentiment is more important than details.
The death of this monarch will be a blow for the monarchy. Irrespective of what one thinks of monarchism v republicanism, any objective analysis must acknowledge that Elisabeth has been an absolute corker. Whoever replaces her is going to disappoint. Or worse. Much worse.
Once the bereavement period is over, the only way is down for the monarchy for the foreseeable future.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Yes, various sources have the Russian tank fleet at between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks, either serviceable or fixable.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
What's been notable about the destroyed tanks shown on twitter is that a lot of them now seem to be artillery strikes rather than NLAWs. This is only going to get worse for the Russians as more Western artillery is deployed by the Ukrainians.
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
I also agree, but I prefer the version without blue sunglasses, or windows, or whatever:
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Thanks for this. It sounds great. I've added it to the wish list.
Just 15 miles from Ephesus, as well
Fly in to Izmir, and it's a £35 cab ride to here (about an hour's drive, which shows you what a bargain Turkey is right now). Excellent fish restaurants all along the front
I could live the rest of my years on the Turkish Aegean. Sublime climate, incredibly cheap, nice people, lots of unspoiled forests and beaches, good food if you're near the coast (it gets much worse inland). The only fly in the ointment is that I am also reading Armenian Golgotha, about the Armenian genocide, which constantly reminds me that the Turks have a seriously dark side
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
@NickPalmer is one of the best posters on the site without a doubt.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
Has it been that bad? That you have to eat nursery food for weeks?
Sympathies, if so. Is it Long Covid?
I had a nasty bout of the C-Virus in Dec 2021 which left me quasi-delirious for a few days, but my recovery was pretty swift. It is peculiar how it takes people so differently
Lots of joint and pain which made me feel sick for about 5 straight days, and I was struggling to keep anything down. That pain lasted ~11 days and then suddenly, on the day after the first -ve test, the pain disappeared, and slept properly for most of the day/night. I had to go and do a school pick up that night and had a wild heart rate and dizzyness for a 5 minute walk! Then yesterday was just a bit "slow and tired", and today I'm basically fine if I take it steady.
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
@NickPalmer is one of the best posters on the site without a doubt.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
They didn't.
Four of the five last Labour leaders - Blair, Miliband, Corbyn, Starmer - are associated with not only part of a North London set but a very closely defined North London set (Dartmouth Park / Camden / Islington).
Anyone who does not think that is a problem for Labour and its mindset needs to get out more.
This being the same area that Dominic Cummings lives in, that Boris Johnson (another London MP) used to live in... And the idea that Blair and Corbyn are part of the same "set" LOL, that is a dinner party I would love to join.
Key point: lots are erroneously saying Labour is not 'winning back' the Red Wall.
Change in these elections is on 2018. In 2018, Labour *had* the Red Wall nationally. Labour standing still or even going back slightly in Red Wall areas in these elections *is* progress for Labour.
Tory source: “It seems somewhat unlikely that voters in Westminster, Wandsworth, Barnet and seats across England were motivated by Douglas Ross. It’s a bad election for the party across the UK for one main reason - anger at Boris and partygate.” https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1522501706281623552
And that is why these are not good results overall for Labour, 8 months of terrible press for the Government and still only moderate gains after 12 years in opposition.
Of the six Surrey councils that had elections yesterday, Tandridge District Council is the only one to have completed its count overnight. Here is when counts start in the other five:
Key point: lots are erroneously saying Labour is not 'winning back' the Red Wall.
Change in these elections is on 2018. In 2018, Labour *had* the Red Wall nationally. Labour standing still or even going back slightly in Red Wall areas in these elections *is* progress for Labour.
There was no General Election in 2018 so how can you say Labour had the Red Wall on those results?
2018 was a red light flashing that the Red Wall could fall. 2019 was when it officially did, but that's because that's when the GE was held.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Yes, various sources have the Russian tank fleet at between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks, either serviceable or fixable.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
What's been notable about the destroyed tanks shown on twitter is that a lot of them now seem to be artillery strikes rather than NLAWs. This is only going to get worse for the Russians as more Western artillery is deployed by the Ukrainians.
Indeed so. Those modified grenades dropped from $1,000 drones are brilliant, they have a pretty much unlimited supply of them, they cost nothing if they don’t work, and almost nothing if they get shot down.
The NLAWs were great at stifling the columns of vehicles that tried to advance the initial invasion, they could be fired from any one of hundreds of balconies on a street, as the Russians didn’t have control of the area.
Loads more Western artillery and NLAWs are on the way, the enemy is going to have a tough time of it in the coming weeks and months.
Key point: lots are erroneously saying Labour is not 'winning back' the Red Wall.
Change in these elections is on 2018. In 2018, Labour *had* the Red Wall nationally. Labour standing still or even going back slightly in Red Wall areas in these elections *is* progress for Labour.
There was no General Election in 2018 so how can you say Labour had the Red Wall on those results?
2018 was a red light flashing that the Red Wall could fall. 2019 was when it officially did, but that's because that's when the GE was held.
Labour held the Red Wall in 2018. In 2019 they lost it.
So to go back to 2018 means they have won a lot of seats back in any GE.
Do these results suggest the Tories need to look for a Tory-Libdem switcher friendly leader to negotiate their way through to the next election. A Jeremy Hunt type with a deputy who can throw the odd bit or red meat to the red wall?
Labour reckon, based on vote share so far, they'd win 16 GE seats: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton NE, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Workington
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
We're still early in the game - this has a long way to play out.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
AFAICS that does not exist, except for a 1% or so over the last week.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
BJO please explain?
Pro-Rata please explain again?
I've started with the most complex cobstituency I'm doing to correlate local to national, with no previous good baseline of Lab vs Con contests. Con have rarely in the past put up a full slate, there is an ever changing cast of Independents and fringe right wing parties and in 2021 boundary changes meant 3 seats per ward were up for election, yet the Tories only stood 1 candidate in most wards whilst Labour stood 3.
But all votes were first choice votes for a candidate, so I counted them all. It's quite common to count only the lead candidate for each party (which is what NEV would do) and that would lead to the following swings from 2021:
Con 35.5 (+1.2 based on lead 2021 LE candidate for each designation rather than all votes) Lab 42.8 (+19.5) LD 1.3 (+0.4 only!) Ind 16.1 (-12.3) Oth 4.1 (-7.3)
As you see, those are much more flattering numbers for Labour.
I think 2022 LE looks like a decent baseline for a general election run, and pitches Labour possibly as very slight favourites to regain the seat.
Comments
Opposition need to judge at what point the whole Brexit front is weakened enough that it's allowed to be mentioned again without the threat of dangerous escalation.
You seen the £ tumble recently - that' not going to help the inflation outlook here....
"The trust in Boris Johnson has completely dissipated," says new Labour council leader Councillor Satvir Kaur
Itchen and Test for Labour?
In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it
Janet Daley"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/06/boris-has-spared-red-wall-now/
The animosity towards London, is a candle vs flame-thrower when you compare it to France vs Paris.
And agreed.
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
So with both the Eurozone and USA higher which major economies have lower inflation than the UK due to Brexit at this present moment of time? Or were you either mistaken or being deceitful? I'm sure you'll have some you can name surely?
But then you tried to tell us that there is no link between Supply & Demand and inflation.
I guess you've never studied economics.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
What happens when Rachel R or whoever discovers that the 1% don't have enough wealth to pay for it all and has to hit the 10% or the 20%?
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
It’s falling against the dollar, because the BoE has not been as aggressive as the Fed when it comes to interest rate rises. Which likely means more BoE rises are in the offing over the summer.
Of course there is a link between Supply and Demand and Inflation, stop lying you silly deceitful troll.
Inflation is hitting us hard, because of global conditions, not because of Brexit, which is why its hitting the Eurozone and USA even harder at this moment of time.
Tom Newton Dunn
@tnewtondunn
·
1h
Losing Westminster and Wandsworth is a PR disaster for the Tories. But in the Red Wall battleground that matters most for the next general election, they’re holding on - like keeping Nuneaton and actually making gains in Hartlepool overnight. It’s still a tale of two Englands.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
How shit are Labour in Enfield lol. If Boris wasn't a massive dickback I think the local Tories would have taken it, all I hear from my family and school friends who live in Enfield is that the Labour council are a bunch of wankers.
https://twitter.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1522470360255549440
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.
Labour could have gone some way to fixing it by choosing one of 3 women who did not represent London seats.
They didn't.
If your response to low paid people getting an above inflation pay rise via market conditions encouraging that is "but that's going to cost me more" then you may not be caring out everyone else.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
We are in uncharted territory in so many ways. If inflation is still a concern this time next year, and the BoE does actually raise rates to something like 3%, then that could really hurt the Tories in the South East.
The national polls aren't suggesting a big Lib Dem surge, but that might change closer to the election, and they might benefit from the pain that mortgage holders will suffer.
You claimed that restricted supplies had no effect on UK inflation. I called you out for it then and I do so again.
You have never studied economics, that much is blindingly obvious.
So on top of being a thoroughly nasty piece of work who would "happily see the Troubles return to Northern Ireland" as a price for a pure Brexit, you are also clueless.
And on the trolling front, you are last man standing. I use a VPN. I know that may be confusing to a thicko like you but it's not complicated. I hide my presence online because I don't like data tracking and wish to remain anonymous without cookie trackers spying on me.
That I have divulged intricate details about where I live (see convos with tlg86 who walks through my neighbourhood every day) is an obvious demonstration that I am not a troll but to a thicko like you, seemingly not.
So the idle elite.
Rainham & Wennington ward result still to be declared with a re-count on Monday 9 May
https://twitter.com/LBofHavering/status/1522494357802205185
Current score is Res 23 Con 20 Lab 9; the missing ward used to be held by a Residents' Association.
So probably another Conservative administration (albeit minority) biting the dust in London.
And the local election results seem to be better, for those of us of a leftward inclination.
We have now elections locally, unlike Colchester, just up the road, which I gather, has rejected the Tories, although it's not quite sure what will replace them.
The big news locally is that McColls, who run the only convenience store, and, importantly, Post Office here have gone bust. What, we wonder, does that mean for the Post Office?
Sympathies, if so. Is it Long Covid?
I had a nasty bout of the C-Virus in Dec 2021 which left me quasi-delirious for a few days, but my recovery was pretty swift. It is peculiar how it takes people so differently
Anyone who does not think that is a problem for Labour and its mindset needs to get out more.
I'm sorry JJ, whereas I like most of your posts I find these appallingly arrogant. It takes a lot of work and money to stand and it is also difficult to find people to do so, so to expect someone to do that who has no chance of winning and who will almost certainly then cause their next preferred candidate to lose is asking a lot. Good on those that do, but don't criticize those that don't.
As I said if you don't like what happens (And I don't also. I would prefer more to stand and have a greater choice), don't blame the candidates and the parties, blame the system that drives that outcome.
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1522501706281623552
Please stop trolling me, I never said that supply and demand does not affect inflation. You are lying pure and simple. If you keep lying about me, I will ask @PBModerator to get involved because this is just pure trolling.
I also never said I would "happily" see the Troubles return to Northern Ireland, that is another lie. I said that if the Troubles returned then that would be the fault of whoever resorted to violence and the risk of that does not trump democracy. That Brexit, being democratically requested, is more important than threats or risks of violence. But if violence happened I never said "happily", it would be with regret that it had happened. So another lie by you. You have no integrity and are trolling me with multiple lies.
You're trolling right now lying about me. I never said Supply and Demand does not affect inflation. Stop lying if you don't want to be a troll.
Well, see here:
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1522482273085440000
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
That's the stunning result so far. Three Conservative MP's. Thought it was a stretch target for Labour, but wasn't close.
Overall. Not too different than I was expecting tbh. Little worse for the Tories. Still a fair few, particularly in the south, to declare.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
It is why I also rate @HYUFD extremely highly.
Once the bereavement period is over, the only way is down for the monarchy for the foreseeable future.
He tells me 'no matter how much you asked' Tory voters to turn out yesterday, 'they didn't want to'.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1522503340491526145
Fly in to Izmir, and it's a £35 cab ride to here (about an hour's drive, which shows you what a bargain Turkey is right now). Excellent fish restaurants all along the front
I could live the rest of my years on the Turkish Aegean. Sublime climate, incredibly cheap, nice people, lots of unspoiled forests and beaches, good food if you're near the coast (it gets much worse inland). The only fly in the ointment is that I am also reading Armenian Golgotha, about the Armenian genocide, which constantly reminds me that the Turks have a seriously dark side
Change in these elections is on 2018. In 2018, Labour *had* the Red Wall nationally. Labour standing still or even going back slightly in Red Wall areas in these elections *is* progress for Labour.
LAB: 8 (+2)
CON: 6 (-2)
LDM: 2 (+1)
IND: 2 (-1)
Council Now: CON 21, LAB 16, IND 8, LDM 6.
NOC - No Change.
BJO please explain
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-local-elections-2022-live-23874953
Of the six Surrey councils that had elections yesterday, Tandridge District Council is the only one to have completed its count overnight. Here is when counts start in the other five:
Elmbridge: 9am
Runnymede: 9.30am
Reigate and Banstead: 11am
Mole Valley: 11.30am
Woking: 1pm
Tandridge wasn't great for the Tories (although they lost two to independents rather than Lib Dems)...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000215
2018 was a red light flashing that the Red Wall could fall. 2019 was when it officially did, but that's because that's when the GE was held.
The NLAWs were great at stifling the columns of vehicles that tried to advance the initial invasion, they could be fired from any one of hundreds of balconies on a street, as the Russians didn’t have control of the area.
Loads more Western artillery and NLAWs are on the way, the enemy is going to have a tough time of it in the coming weeks and months.
So to go back to 2018 means they have won a lot of seats back in any GE.
Not me saying this, Chris Curtice is
Which is a normal fluctuation not a tumble.
Anyhoo - things to do.
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
But all votes were first choice votes for a candidate, so I counted them all. It's quite common to count only the lead candidate for each party (which is what NEV would do) and that would lead to the following swings from 2021:
Con 35.5 (+1.2 based on lead 2021 LE candidate for each designation rather than all votes)
Lab 42.8 (+19.5)
LD 1.3 (+0.4 only!)
Ind 16.1 (-12.3)
Oth 4.1 (-7.3)
As you see, those are much more flattering numbers for Labour.
I think 2022 LE looks like a decent baseline for a general election run, and pitches Labour possibly as very slight favourites to regain the seat.