One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
Companies didn’t do that though, they chose instead to import cheap labour from developing countries.
They no longer have the choice to do that for unskilled workers, so investment in capital and training is required.
Is it not the skilled workers the problem at the moment, hence government relaxing the rules on bringing them in?
Well some Tories here will be ecstatic that Starmer is being investigated. Has lightning struck again for Boris Johnson?
ISTR that earlier in the year, Starmer or Labour (I think the former) came out with a line that was something like "They partied whilst people could not visit their dying relatives." (*)
The event he was at looks worse to me in terms of a 'party' than the No. 10 event that for the FPNs. Not in the workplace, late at night, lots of people from different areas mixing, etc.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Still optimistic for Lab biggest party at the GE - it's no forlorn hope - it's just with my betting hat on that I have to downgrade the prospects slightly.
My gut instinct is it’s going to be somewhere between the run up to 2010 and 2015. Starmer could win but won’t be a racing certainty, and we may all get surprised on the night either way.
Edit - And I reckon Farage might fancy one more go if he thinks Essex/Surrey/Kent are worth a go.
Which is worse: the man who wrote the law breaking it, or a QC breaking it? Politically, I would say the former.
I'd agree. But at the political level, it does rather diminish the bite of Labour's attack on Boris on this particular front if the attack reeks of hypocrisy.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
It’s worse. It’s evil. No other word for it - it’s a law designed to inflict unnecessary suffering on someone already coming to terms with losing their baby.
I'd go with 'evil' too. TBH, I find that an apt enough word for any absolutist ban on abortion.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Trips up North are often fraught with beer and curry action danger for Starmer.
Don't do it!
If it's the Lakes they can give him a traditional slab of Kendal Mint Cake, take him for a ramble, and he can break 3 teeth on it when it has turned into the traditional slab of marble 2 hours later.
He could visit the Keswick Pencil Museum. He'd surely find it interesting, and vice versa.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Labour are doing fine, especially with the more recent results on top of London.
I'd be intrigued to know if earlier counts favoured the tories for a psephological reason e.g. quicker to count because more urban?
No doubt that in the daylight Labour and LibDems are doing better and the Conservatives worse than in the night.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
Companies didn’t do that though, they chose instead to import cheap labour from developing countries.
They no longer have the choice to do that for unskilled workers, so investment in capital and training is required.
It is interesting and amusing to see some of this in practise.
A relative who runs a building business. He trains for various things - saves a fortune in damage to expensive equipment from people who always say "yes, I can drive one of those"
Someone else in the same business was complaining about the lack of people with skill X at price Y. To listen to him, it was his human right that there be a queue of people prepared to work for about 1.5x minimum wage. In a moderately skilled job. In London.
What was fascinating was the lac of interest or understanding the idea of adaption. His business was hurting, but change wasn't a possible thing.
It brought to mind horrible old stories of people sitting waiting for the mines to reopen and the steelworks to fire up again, in the North.
I just can get the mindset - something has changed that effects me. So I have to change. Waiting for a miracle just seems... weird?
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
If Starmer receives a FPN he would have to resign . This would put the spotlight on the fact Johnson hasn’t . Of course he has no shame and will try and cling on .
Bingley - results Candidate Party Votes % Outcome Joe Wheatley Labour 3120 49% Elected David Heseltine Con 2603 41% Not elected Rachael Drucquer Green 422 7% Not elected Peter Russell LibDem 195 3% Not elected
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
Labour winning from Tories in London and a handful of other places, and losing to the odds and ends elsewhere. Lib Dems regrouping in the South and a few of their 2000s local government outposts.
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
There were some elections. Lots of people think the results fit their own pre-ordained narrative.
Those two lines do you? They are ever green and apply to all Locals.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
As I noted above, the intention is to outlaw the morning after pill. It's simply that the state Republicans are as ignorant as they are immoral.
My understanding is that the morning after pill is ineffective against an ectopic pregnancy so I'm not sure what that would have to do with it.
I should say I don't have any expertise in this area at all and will be asking my wife later who is both a doctor and had an ectopic pregnancy.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
He doesn't, because he has (bless him) an opinion on everything and (as far as I can fathom) experience of nothing.
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
Labour winning from Tories in London and a handful of other places, and losing to the odds and ends elsewhere. Lib Dems regrouping in the South and a few of their 2000s local government outposts.
tyvm
And Tories losing gently across the board it seemed? But not fatally so?
Bingley - results Candidate Party Votes % Outcome Joe Wheatley Labour 3120 49% Elected David Heseltine Con 2603 41% Not elected Rachael Drucquer Green 422 7% Not elected Peter Russell LibDem 195 3% Not elected
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
Everyone with a party bias is spinning things for their party and against the other parties.
Those of us without any particular party bias see it's a bit of a curate's egg for everyone, at least so far.
South Belfast is looking like Alliance 2, DUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1, with the Greens losing their seat to Alliance.
Looking good for Alliance overall and bad for everyone who is liable to lose votes to Alliance.
Which is basically everyone - the "design" of Alliance is the quiet sensible party that wants to build roads, schools, make sure the garbage is collected.
NI politics apart from the sectarianism is quite narrow in terms of economics. The spending bits of the various manifestos are very similar.
So once you leave your sectarian party, the Alliance is very close to everything else you used to vote for.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
There was a case, post Casey I think, challenging a Nebraska law which outlawed so-called late term abortions. One could think that's not a big problem, and such abortions would not be available 'on demand' in Europe. The rub was that it was a blanket ban, with no allowance to save the Mother's life. Of course, making such an allowance would defeat the entire purpose of the law as vanishingly few such abortions, if any, take place for (for want of a better word) elective reasons.
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
There were some elections. Lots of people think the results fit their own pre-ordained narrative.
Those two lines do you? They are ever green and apply to all Locals.
Strictly speaking they were two sentences on one line. But then perhaps you are having the last meta laugh with your second, er, line.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Labour are doing fine, especially with the more recent results on top of London.
I'd be intrigued to know if earlier counts favoured the tories for a psephological reason e.g. quicker to count because more urban?
No doubt that in the daylight Labour and LibDems are doing better and the Conservatives worse than in the night.
Yeah right When Mike posted the header Lab had 37 net gains after 72 Councils
They are now have 2 more seat Gains after a further 24 Councils
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
Everyone with a party bias is spinning things for their party and against the other parties.
Those of us without any particular party bias see it's a bit of a curate's egg for everyone, at least so far.
If Starmer receives a FPN he would have to resign . This would put the spotlight on the fact Johnson hasn’t . Of course he has no shame and will try and cling on .
I think - rightly or wrongly - Starmer would stay on, because like the Tories there wouldn't be an obvious successor. None of the factions (even the Corbynites - they need Starmer to lose the next election) in the PLP want a leadership contest anytime soon.
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Still optimistic for Lab biggest party at the GE - it's no forlorn hope - it's just with my betting hat on that I have to downgrade the prospects slightly.
You have the ideal result for you IMO. If Labour had done too well, Johnson would be toast and the Tory Party would regenerate itself. This way The Clown most likely remains clinging on by his fingernails maximising the chances of a Labour victory. This does not thrill me, but it should please you.
@kinabalu I say this hopefully in the nicest way possible, we should not get too emotional about elections. I have in the past and certainly did not help my mental health issues.
If Starmer receives a FPN he would have to resign . This would put the spotlight on the fact Johnson hasn’t . Of course he has no shame and will try and cling on .
Policing by tabloid (and Daily Telegraph) is an interesting concept.
I used Dudley as example in my overnight summing up for all those waking up at bottom of this thread and thinking it looks terrible night for Labour. When it gets into that granular detail, how last years result is hurting Labour for the coming years becomes clear, but also if they do same as this next year and year after, how this level of performance tonight being good is only then understood. But those on the ground sort of know, in Sunderland the Tories angry of face whilst Labour chairing each other round the hall - but it looked like nothing but holds, it looked like a huge flop, but it was to them a bit of a sea change after years of bad nights. Same in Dudley. Peterborough. Etc.
Don’t know if I am still making any analytical sense in any posts now, at the drunk/tired stage where my 2 dimensional painting are becoming 3 dimensional in front my eyes. 🥺
As Durham Constabulary are poised to reinvestigate Sir Keir Starmer over beergate, Tory spads were told this morning that it was one of most successful CCHQ attacks on Labour in recent history
There is no honour in the Tory Party, what a bunch of knobs
I actually see it as only right. One of the most surprising things, and I believe unfair was that Rishi Sunak was fined. Got no time for Boria, but Rishi turned up for a meeting and someone brought out a surprise cake, and seemingly no-one additional brought in. Can we honestly say that was more risky than the supposed meeting in Durham? This is the rule of unintended consequences - they have gone so hard on Boris, that it has now tied their hands. As I have said here previously Boris should have been got rid of for the wallpaper most of all - absolutely dishonest.
@kinabalu I say this hopefully in the nicest way possible, we should not get too emotional about elections. I have in the past and certainly did not help my mental health issues.
I quite like to get emotional about it - eg if you want the joy of Johnson being whupped at the GE you have to risk the bone deep misery of him not being - but I do try to maintain a separate 'cool as a cucumber' persona for forecasting and betting purposes.
This is insane if true. Ectopic pregnancies are almost invariably fatal for the foetus, and if this were to be enforced, frequently also for the mother.
I read somewhere that only 1 in 60 million ectopic pregnancies are viable, although I don't understand how even 1 can survive. 1 in 90 pregnancies are ectopic and the mother can bleed to death. Happy to be corrected on any of that, but if accurate this is barking mad.
As I noted above, the intention is to outlaw the morning after pill. It's simply that the state Republicans are as ignorant as they are immoral.
My understanding is that the morning after pill is ineffective against an ectopic pregnancy so I'm not sure what that would have to do with it.
I should say I don't have any expertise in this area at all and will be asking my wife later who is both a doctor and had an ectopic pregnancy.
The morning after pill is designed to prevent implantation of a fertilised egg in the womb.
The language in the bill defining "Unborn Child" was changed from:
“Unborn child” means any individual of the human species from fertilisation and implantation until birth to: “Unborn child” means an individual human being from fertilisation until birth
Similarly, "Person" ie defined: “Person” includes a human being from the moment of fertilisation.
The bill outlaws the destruction of an "Unborn Child".
Well, I'm a little bit more optimistic than my fellow Labour travellers on here. Not a great night for Labour outside London, obviously. And in comparison with the equivalent results in 2018, disappointing.
But given the absolute shellacking Labour got in most non-metropolitan areas in the 2019 GE, it's absolutely clear that significant progress has been made. It's only two years into Starmer's leadership, but a fair number of voters will now either vote Labour or consider it. The task was always going to be Herculean following GE 2019, and I reckon progress so far is a bit better than okay.
I've cheered up a bit.
Still optimistic for Lab biggest party at the GE - it's no forlorn hope - it's just with my betting hat on that I have to downgrade the prospects slightly.
You have the ideal result for you IMO. If Labour had done too well, Johnson would be toast and the Tory Party would regenerate itself. This way The Clown most likely remains clinging on by his fingernails maximising the chances of a Labour victory. This does not thrill me, but it should please you.
Yes but remember I don't quite share your negative analysis of Johnson's likely electoral impact (although I do, in spades, of the man).
We must now discuss possible successors to Starmer.
Rachel Reeves is surely odds on to take over. Starmer must change the rules before he goes so another Corbynite cannot be re-elected.
Durham set a precedent with Cummings . They said they wouldn’t fine retrospectively so if that holds Starmer wouldn’t get a FPN.
Indeed though they'll have a PR dilemma with the Met not following that precedent and fining Boris for having food at work at 1pm, while 30+ were gathering indoors for food and alcohol at 10pm in Starmer's case.
Boris was not fined for having food at work. We don’t know precisely why Boris was fined, because Boris won’t talk about it. He could reveal what it says on his FPN and what he and Carrie said on their questionnaires, but he won’t. Boris may yet be further fined because there are multiple incidents still under investigation. We don’t know how many Boris was at, because he won’t talk about that either.
It appears Boris was fined because there were people gathered together without a valid reason to do so, e.g. his wife came into a work area and meeting. Boris, Carrie and Rishi have all paid their fines and accepted they broke the law.
Labour need some more major policies. Windfall tax on the oil companies and VAT cut is not enough.
I agree in theory. But in practice, any Labour policies that will prove popular will be nicked by Boris - looks like the Tories are being nudged towards a windfall tax, for example. So I can see why Labour keep stuff under wraps until a GE campaign starts.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
While I've been recovering from Covid, my daily lunch has been "Dippy Beans" - which is to say, Baked Beans and a soft, buttered bread roll.
Has it been that bad? That you have to eat nursery food for weeks?
Sympathies, if so. Is it Long Covid?
I had a nasty bout of the C-Virus in Dec 2021 which left me quasi-delirious for a few days, but my recovery was pretty swift. It is peculiar how it takes people so differently
Lots of joint and pain which made me feel sick for about 5 straight days, and I was struggling to keep anything down. That pain lasted ~11 days and then suddenly, on the day after the first -ve test, the pain disappeared, and slept properly for most of the day/night. I had to go and do a school pick up that night and had a wild heart rate and dizzyness for a 5 minute walk! Then yesterday was just a bit "slow and tired", and today I'm basically fine if I take it steady.
Sounds rough, good to see you are improving though. I had it at Christmas and it was just like a mild cold.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Quite trying trying to be a smart ass when you are just an ass. You can’t see any difference between a waiter and a chef? Really? The difference between skilled positions and unskilled positions? The ongoing hit to productivity in your economy if firms and sectors cannot Meet demand due to shortages of skilled staff? And the fact the main purpose of Brexit, taking back control of immigration with no FOM is already being by passed by this government, as the rules for Skilled Worker visas have been relaxed and some restrictions relaxed just as I told you was sensible to do so, and you seem ignorant that’s it’s already happening now! Brexit already unwinding whilst your sipping your beer and enjoying your view of the med. After all your posts you still haven’t worked out silence is the best answer for a fool, have you?
Have you ever heard of the concept of Investing In People?
Skilled staff aren't some unique natural resource that needs to be imported as we lack veins of them to be mined in the UK.
I 100% approve of skilled workers being able to get a visa to migrate to the UK, but if there's a shortage of skills then firms can invest in training the staff they do have. Apprenticeships and more are real things you know?
Have you heard of investing in people and transforming an economy to a modern productive one over two decades first, rather than the moment you realise you have created a problem?
Companies didn’t do that though, they chose instead to import cheap labour from developing countries.
They no longer have the choice to do that for unskilled workers, so investment in capital and training is required.
Is it not the skilled workers the problem at the moment, hence government relaxing the rules on bringing them in?
Tories have no clue , they just parrot the same old mince and we have no skills as the Tories think it is better to just import people rather than spend some cash on traing locals. They could not run a bath.
“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties”
That's not the same as saying the Lib Dems could win 100 MPs.
The majority of those would have been Lib Dems, so I stand by what I said.
If there were c. 50 SNP, 18 NI parties, and 4 PC, that gives 72 non-Big-Two MPs. With 1 Green, 1 Speaker, and a chance of 1 Independent, that would be a prediction of about 25 Lib Dems rather than 100.
Comments
Labour see near 10% increase in vote share in 'red wall' Dudley
In our post at 8.02 am this morning we noted that the result in Dudley was more interesting than it looked at face value.
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-news-labour-conservatives-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-politics-latest-12593360?postid=3843638#liveblog-body
The event he was at looks worse to me in terms of a 'party' than the No. 10 event that for the FPNs. Not in the workplace, late at night, lots of people from different areas mixing, etc.
(*) I think there's enough caveats in that...
Presumably a mere FPT doesn’t prevent a barrister from practicing.
Edit - And I reckon Farage might fancy one more go if he thinks Essex/Surrey/Kent are worth a go.
Maybe I should stop drinking the wine? When does it actually end and we can go to bed?
https://twitter.com/Woking_NewsMail/status/1522551321911607298
I'd be intrigued to know if earlier counts favoured the tories for a psephological reason e.g. quicker to count because more urban?
No doubt that in the daylight Labour and LibDems are doing better and the Conservatives worse than in the night.
All those Russians...
A relative who runs a building business. He trains for various things - saves a fortune in damage to expensive equipment from people who always say "yes, I can drive one of those"
Someone else in the same business was complaining about the lack of people with skill X at price Y. To listen to him, it was his human right that there be a queue of people prepared to work for about 1.5x minimum wage. In a moderately skilled job. In London.
What was fascinating was the lac of interest or understanding the idea of adaption. His business was hurting, but change wasn't a possible thing.
It brought to mind horrible old stories of people sitting waiting for the mines to reopen and the steelworks to fire up again, in the North.
I just can get the mindset - something has changed that effects me. So I have to change. Waiting for a miracle just seems... weird?
Can someone sum up in two lines what's happened. Glancing this morning at the headlines it seemed that Cons did far less badly and Lab worse than expectations.
TIA.
Convenience store chain McColl's has fallen into administration, putting more than 16,000 jobs at risk.
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1522331009613713408
Admittedly at "the drug labs", but jeez.
Bingley - results
Candidate Party Votes % Outcome
Joe Wheatley Labour 3120 49% Elected
David Heseltine Con 2603 41% Not elected
Rachael Drucquer Green 422 7% Not elected
Peter Russell LibDem 195 3% Not elected
LABOUR GAIN!!!
Develop a compelling vision and form coherent policies around that.
Having a compelling vision and coherent policies would give them two things Boris' Conservatives don't have.
Those two lines do you? They are ever green and apply to all Locals.
I should say I don't have any expertise in this area at all and will be asking my wife later who is both a doctor and had an ectopic pregnancy.
And Tories losing gently across the board it seemed? But not fatally so?
Those of us without any particular party bias see it's a bit of a curate's egg for everyone, at least so far.
NI politics apart from the sectarianism is quite narrow in terms of economics. The spending bits of the various manifestos are very similar.
So once you leave your sectarian party, the Alliance is very close to everything else you used to vote for.
Dead in the water
When Mike posted the header Lab had 37 net gains after 72 Councils
They are now have 2 more seat Gains after a further 24 Councils
Way to go
Investigation confirmed by the BBC.
But those on the ground sort of know, in Sunderland the Tories angry of face whilst Labour chairing each other round the hall - but it looked like nothing but holds, it looked like a huge flop, but it was to them a bit of a sea change after years of bad nights. Same in Dudley. Peterborough. Etc.
Don’t know if I am still making any analytical sense in any posts now, at the drunk/tired stage where my 2 dimensional painting are becoming 3 dimensional in front my eyes. 🥺
This thread has just lost its council seat
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Middleton Park (Leeds):
SDP: 50.8% (+28.5)
LAB: 36.1% (-25.0)
CON: 7.7% (-3.6)
GRN: 3.9% (New)
LDM: 1.5% (-3.8)
SDP GAIN from Labour.
12:50 PM · May 6, 2022
The language in the bill defining "Unborn Child" was changed from:
“Unborn child” means any individual of the human species from fertilisation and implantation until birth
to:
“Unborn child” means an individual human being from fertilisation until birth
Similarly, "Person" ie defined:
“Person” includes a human being from the moment of fertilisation.
The bill outlaws the destruction of an "Unborn Child".
It appears Boris was fined because there were people gathered together without a valid reason to do so, e.g. his wife came into a work area and meeting. Boris, Carrie and Rishi have all paid their fines and accepted they broke the law.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000116
Lab 43.6 (+8.4)
Con 35.9 (-2.8)
LD 11.7 (+0.2)
Grn 8.3 (+0.4)
Others 0.5 (-6.0) - mainly Ind
Lab gain most votes in Calder Valley
With 1 Green, 1 Speaker, and a chance of 1 Independent, that would be a prediction of about 25 Lib Dems rather than 100.