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The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    ClippP said:

    This is most unfair on the Conservative voters in Richmond. They ought to be better represented than by a single councillor. Time to get rid of our unfair voting system, I think, and replace it with a voting system that ensures that the views of the electorate are properly represented.
    But if we change it, we can't do what we all currently do and base voting on holding the candidates to account for their manifestos.

    Obviously yesterday the Lib Dems had the best manifestos around the country, with good Labour manifestos and bad Tory manifestos. And the opinion polls will all reset to zero as not measuring anything until the next round of manifestos are published.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    NEW: As election results come in, the latest Westminster voting intention tracker shows a 6 point lead for Labour.

    Lab 40% (nc)
    Con 34% (-1)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,635 questioned Wed & Thu. Changes with 27-28 April.

    Details at technetracker.co.uk

    BJO?

    I was about to ask if there's any National Equivalent Vote Share. I guess there cannot be until Scotland and Wales come in etc.

    But I'd be surprised if it works out much different from a 5-6 % Labour lead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
    It was so bad we had to have a National Government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.

    I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland? ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?

    They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
    Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.

    Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland? ;)
    :smiley:

    Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    If she goes during the World Cup...
    If it happens during a large international event, it’ll be chaos because that show will go on regardless, and the question moves to issues like televising (or not) the matches.

    The worst time domestically, would be in the middle of a general election campaign.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    I'm not a monarchist but I do find talk of her death rather distasteful.

    However, if she does die in the next two years I think Boris Johnson (if still PM) will do well out of it. I know that's an awful thing to say but as we saw with Ukraine, he's good when sentiment is more important than details.

    I was going to loyally back her to be gone by Christmas. Given my recent record that would guarantee she sees 2023
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
    Rearmament started to really kick in about 1934. Lots of investment in the steel industry, for example.

    Many people don't realise that rearmament, in the UK, started before Hitler came to power. It was triggered by the previous German government laying down the pocket battleships.

    The reason that rearmament was no more perceptible is that it wasn't massively advertised by the government - despite the huge spending. By 1936, the major constraint was on having something to spend money on - the money was going on factories to build weapons, not weapons themselves (mainly).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Heathener said:

    I was about to ask if there's any National Equivalent Vote Share. I guess there cannot be until Scotland and Wales come in etc.

    But I'd be surprised if it works out much different from a 5-6 % Labour lead.
    It will be less IMO 2% to 3% but let's wait till the forecast
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    Ahead of you in the unDictator stakes. Even got half a cabinet signed up.
    If no party can actually command a majority or a working minority (via confidence and supply e.g SNP/LD give Starmer confidence vote) then it is easy for her majesty, there will be a 2nd GE.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.

    This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551
    Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    MaxPB said:

    Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.

    Lab most seats looks likely though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    kjh said:

    This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
    Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Er - no.

    Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.

    Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.

    Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
    Roots?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    kle4 said:

    I find nothing undemocratic about pacts. Parties are not obligated to stand candidates and provide a wider choice for the electorate.

    Its disappointing to have less choice but it's not undemocratic.
    However, if it takes 9 months to form a Government (Netherlands?), or there is a new one every 9 months, that *is* a problem.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Foxy said:

    Lab most seats looks likely though.
    Yeah I think Max was just being party political as opposed to objective. We all do it from time to time.

    Perfectly good results for Labour but we still await a whole load more, and I'm particularly interested to see what happens in Scotland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.

    Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Heathener said:

    :smiley:

    Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
    Green Party is for the upper middle classes, surely?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127

    Blimey, yes. 1968. Muttley is 54 years old now.
    380 in dog years, long gone over the rainbow bridge.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    NEW: As election results come in, the latest Westminster voting intention tracker shows a 6 point lead for Labour.

    Lab 40% (nc)
    Con 34% (-1)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 4% (nc)

    1,635 questioned Wed & Thu. Changes with 27-28 April.

    Details at technetracker.co.uk

    BJO?

    That's a VI poll tracker.

    The National Equivalent share is out later and based on actual voters rather than Polls

    If it shows a 6 % lead that would mean Polls were in right ballpark.

    I think it will show about 3% meaning Polls we're overestimating Lab.

    I could be wrong not long to wait now
  • That's a VI poll tracker.

    The National Equivalent share is out later and based on actual voters rather than Polls

    If it shows a 6 % lead that would mean Polls were in right ballpark.

    I think it will show about 3% meaning Polls we're overestimating Lab.

    I could be wrong not long to wait now
    Oh okay so you don't like the polls now so you'll just ignore them.

    Ok then
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    IshmaelZ said:

    Roots?
    Definition 2 :smile:


  • Last update I saw suggested a swing of just over 2% from Con to Lab vs 2018, putting Labour 4-5 points ahead in the national vote. If that's where it stays, then we are back to more typical local election territory than the oddity of last year

    So polls would be spot on.

    Economic deterioration + Lib Dems + Scotland + Wales - it's Hung Parliament time
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Oh yeah, you're right, totally goes against what the LDs stand for on a national level. That pro-EU, internationalist lifeblood that runs through their veins.

    I think the LDs are being very wily. I'm extrapolating massively, obviously, but in my ward, Knottingley in the Wakefield Council area, since the referendum the three Labour cllrs we've had since since year dot have gone to two LD and one Labour - and it could well be three LDs by the end of today.

    That's helped by a local cynicism about the Labour-run Council being viewed as ignoring us, admittedly.

    But I think that the LDs are deliberately playing down what they stand for in their DNA in a bid to win in Leave areas that will just not go Tory, on hyperlocal, dare I say parochial, policies. And it seems to be working in places.
    'Wily' is a pleasant way of describing the LibDems ... shallow, hypocritical, dishonest is a bit more accurate.

    It is because the LibDems don't believe in anything definite, just a vague fuzziness.

    So, they can simultaneously be right of Nigel Farage and left of Jeremy Corbyn, as the occasions suits.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
    That's the deliberate use of cobalt 60, this story is about accidental plutonium contamination I think
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    West London vacuum cleaner factories versus Northern heavy industry.
    Yes, while the Midlands grew strongly on the light engineering, motor trade and rag trade, ship building and the coalfields were grim places to be. Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry etc were boom towns.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    murali_s said:

    The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.

    This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).

    I agree.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    MaxPB said:

    Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.

    Long way to go before GE24.

    Good to see the continued ejection of the Tories from London though. Thoroughly deserved!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2022
    MattW said:

    Green Party is for the upper middle classes, surely?
    Well, here's a curiosity. My home is Hook Heath which is Heathlands ward: hence my name. It's frighteningly well to do with most houses over £1m. I am almost certain today's results will show that Heathlands has voted LibDem.

    Richmond too.

    And this is no flash in the pan. We saw it with Amersham & Chesham.

    This loss of their core support in the south should really, really, trouble Conservatives. Playing to the new red wall supporters whilst losing your core is an absolute recipe for disaster especially if the economy is about to tank.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,171
    Foxy said:

    Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
    Though when you irradiate food (zap it with radiation from outside), the food itself doesn't become radioactive.

    Contaminate it (the food itself is radioactive) is another matter- though bananas give a decent Geiger counter signal and people don't worry about that. It's the potassium that does it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    I don't think so, unless the remaining results are wildly different to the last ones.

    With half the Councils in the Lib Dems have already gained nearly twice that estimate, while Labour are off track.

    The Tory figure might be close at the end, but the seats seem to be going yellow not red.
    Good point. Counting up the England plus London seats, when the counting in England is done, they were pointing at:
    Con -101 (currently -122)
    Lab +19 (currently +34)
    LD +33 (currently +59)
    Grn +30 (currently +23)

    So with half counted, Tories are already significantly worse than that prediction, Labour better, LD nearly double the total prediction, and Greens approaching it and not bad for the halfway point.

    I think the Baxter MRP skewed expectations a bit.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    murali_s said:

    The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.

    This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).

    Why does that follow? What results last night would have caused you to post "at least this shows brexit is done and dusted"?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Lab most seats looks likely though.
    I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out

    It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208

    Arf
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited May 2022
    BBC News - Bristol mayor vote: City decides to abolish mayor post
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-61336049

    Lib Dem / Green motion in what is/was Corbynista territory.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272
    HYUFD said:

    HMQ is 96 after all
    Did you win your seat?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302
    Foxy said:

    Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
    Damn, and so close to Louis XIV's record too.
  • Funny how Tories now talk about not calling elections.

    When they were the ones two years ago not saying whether the Tories would win again - but how large the majority would be. 100 seats, 200 seats?

    Labour is back - and they know it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Foxy said:

    Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
    Irradiating food should not result in the food being radioactive. Unless you are doing something demented with neutrons - usually use gammas IIRC

  • Brexit is the issue yet Workington swung back to Labour, literally the seat Johnson targeted relentlessly in 2019
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085



    Labour is back - and they know it.

    They are.

    I fear though that this is all going to get very dirty. Johnson is not someone who plays by rules and being the turd he is, will stop at nothing.

    It's going to be a very nasty time in British politics.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    Mr. Sandpit, but probably too late to contest the title.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Last update I saw suggested a swing of just over 2% from Con to Lab vs 2018, putting Labour 4-5 points ahead in the national vote. If that's where it stays, then we are back to more typical local election territory than the oddity of last year

    So polls would be spot on.

    Economic deterioration + Lib Dems + Scotland + Wales - it's Hung Parliament time

    Curtice said so far Tories down 4 and Lab down 1 so that's why I think the Projected National Share will be about 3 not the 8 and 9 we have seen in recent VI polls
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Arf
    Given what @kinabulu told about the unbelievable bin service in Camden, I am not surprised Labour are winning all.

    We will collect your rubbish weekly, and let the rest of the country hit the landfill target.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079

    I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out

    It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
    But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208

    Surprising numbers stick it for decades after being elected as paper candidates. The good news is if you dont want to quit but dont want to work you only need attend 1 meeting every 6 months. Less if you can get approval to be absent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Rearmament started to really kick in about 1934. Lots of investment in the steel industry, for example.

    Many people don't realise that rearmament, in the UK, started before Hitler came to power. It was triggered by the previous German government laying down the pocket battleships.

    The reason that rearmament was no more perceptible is that it wasn't massively advertised by the government - despite the huge spending. By 1936, the major constraint was on having something to spend money on - the money was going on factories to build weapons, not weapons themselves (mainly).
    Mostly it was Neville Chamberlains budget of 1932, with a war bond haircut and tariff changes that led to strong growth. A poor Prime Minister, but his record as CoE was formidable.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    That's true too.

    Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
    Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.

    As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.

    However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
  • "Labour cannot rely on the fact that this is a terrible government with a terrible PM" Former Downing St spin doctor @campbellclaret gives his thoughts on why Labour isn't doing as well as it could #KayBurley #LocalElections22

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1522489612123648000

    Get. Him. Back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302

    BBC News - Bristol mayor vote: City decides to abolish mayor post
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-61336049

    Lib Dem / Green motion in what is/was Corbynista territory.

    Good, was un necessary
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    MattW said:

    Definition 2 :smile:


    Not an excellent batsman but poor captain then? Weird.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131

    "Labour cannot rely on the fact that this is a terrible government with a terrible PM" Former Downing St spin doctor @campbellclaret gives his thoughts on why Labour isn't doing as well as it could #KayBurley #LocalElections22

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1522489612123648000

    Get. Him. Back.

    You want to guarantee losing the next election?
  • DougSeal said:

    Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.

    As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.

    However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
    Because hating London is cool and acceptable now. London scum, liberal elite, bankers etc.

    And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195

    I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.

    Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.

    That's my take on the LD success in these places.
    In my area for 12-13 miles in all directions, the LDs more or less committed Councillor Hari-Kiri with their turbo-remain positioning.

    I've been watching for substantial change since, and I have not seen anything significant.

    But in the East Midlands Tories are now 38 out of 46 MPs, compared with 30 in 2015.

    And I'd expect BoJo to have lost a few unless something turns around quickly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Though when you irradiate food (zap it with radiation from outside), the food itself doesn't become radioactive.

    Contaminate it (the food itself is radioactive) is another matter- though bananas give a decent Geiger counter signal and people don't worry about that. It's the potassium that does it.
    Yes, generally gamma rays are used.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612

    Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
    That sounds like a Parish Council election.
  • Sandpit said:

    If it happens during a large international event, it’ll be chaos because that show will go on regardless, and the question moves to issues like televising (or not) the matches.

    The worst time domestically, would be in the middle of a general election campaign.
    It isn't looking likely that she sees another general election campaign.

    World Cup will be interesting. Refusing to televise the matches would not go down well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394
    Only 60 out of 63 seats up for election in Redbridge yesterday, due to a candidate death in Mayfield (part of Ilford South).

    Current tally:
    Labour 55 (+7)
    Tories 5 (-7)*

    (* since 2018, one Tory defected to RefUK)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    Funny how Tories now talk about not calling elections.

    When they were the ones two years ago not saying whether the Tories would win again - but how large the majority would be. 100 seats, 200 seats?

    Labour is back - and they know it.

    It does feel like it. For the first time in several years. So a big thank you to Boris Johnson without whom none of this would have been possible....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    DavidL said:

    Not an excellent batsman but poor captain then? Weird.
    Perhaps he eats too many baked beans.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    murali_s said:

    But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
    I am sorry that is just being partisan

    Brexit may have a part in this, but there is no quick fix for any country and in parts of the EU inflation is way higher than the UK
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    tlg86 said:

    If she goes during the World Cup...
    ...it would set the world in motion.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    ...it would set the world in motion.
    Gove's got the world in motion.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,254
    edited May 2022
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.

    As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.

    However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
    Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.

    2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.

    The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.

    Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    Pulpstar said:

    Arf
    Did @RochdalePioneers win then ????
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    Another Tory on the BBC wibbling about "800 seats".

    The only people who predicted an 800 seat loss were the Tories themselves. Thankfully not being swallowed by anyone else.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394
    Waltham Forest (shared by Stella Creasey and IDS at Westminster):

    Labour 47 (+2)
    Tories 13 (-2)
  • You know, we speak a lot about the Red Wall and how voters feel taken for granted.

    But it is the Blue Wall and London that now feels the same way, that they will just vote for Johnson whatever he does. Because Labour would be worse.

    No longer. And the Tories don't care, which is the worrying/sad thing.

    Can you honestly imagine David Cameron, William Hague, George Osborne, Theresa May being so utterly uninterested in people that have voted Tory for thirty years? No.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    There are loads of Red Wall councils to declare today so still some way to go .

    And so things might improve further for Labour or conversely help the Tories .

    Although the Tories are hanging on further north their core vote further south seems to be in trouble . So lots of interest today as to what the Lib Dems do in those areas .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    Are we back to Labour's core problem: they can win in graduate and public professional saturated cities (e.g. I think someone posted yesterday that Wandsworth is now 30% young female graduates) but not marginal working class and just about managing seats in midlands and north?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369

    Because hating London is cool and acceptable now. London scum, liberal elite, bankers etc.

    And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
    The downside of the Tories losing Westminster et al is that they are going to double down on all the pathetic performative London hatred now. Also, I wonder whether the growing likelihood that Johnson loses his seat at the next election could be the final nail in his coffin?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    3-D printing meets 1950 Soviet anti-tank grenade:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-cheap-grenades-expensive-tanks/31835434.html
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369

    Are we back to Labour's core problem: they can win in graduate and public professional saturated cities (e.g. I think someone posted yesterday that Wandsworth is now 30% young female graduates) but not marginal working class and just about managing seats in midlands and north?

    Plenty of the just about managing have degrees.
  • murali_s said:

    But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
    Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.

    So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Dura_Ace said:

    Regular viewers of The Dura Ace Show may recall that I have visited Hartlepool, spiritual home of the new tory party, on a few occasions to attend functions at the RN Museum. Thus I have a few "Poolie" friends on FB. One of them reports that one of their polling booths had to be closed due to a "wanking incident".

    These are the people for whom every government policy is now calibrated to please. God help us all.

    Usually it's the candidates who are utter tossers.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,272

    Mr. Rabbit, on Mercedes, I read they have numerous ideas about improving their car.

    Which is a shame, as their dominance was tedious and I'm quite enjoying the Ferrari-Red Bull battle.

    Is 'Rabbit a Mr? Or now we can choose might it still be in the balance?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113

    That sounds like a Parish Council election.
    As I mentioned yesterday, our town council ballot paper listed 21 names, and we had to select up to 19 names from it. I'm pretty sure none of the names had a party attached, and few had bothered to send any literature out about their policies.

    I noticed that a couple of names shared the same address. It'd be embarrassing if one of them got into the council and the other did not...
  • Eh?

    Again, WORKINGTON has swung back to Labour - they just took control again.

    This not a straight London pro Labour, north anti.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392

    Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
    Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394
    Havering's interesting:

    Residents' Assoc. 21 (+2)
    Tories 19 (-4)
    Labour 9 (+4)
    Inds 0 (-2)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    nico679 said:

    There are loads of Red Wall councils to declare today so still some way to go .

    And so things might improve further for Labour or conversely help the Tories .

    Although the Tories are hanging on further north their core vote further south seems to be in trouble . So lots of interest today as to what the Lib Dems do in those areas .

    @SouthamObserver had a good point, namely that not enough attention is being paid to the Cumberland results - it's classic Red Wall territory (and arguably that area was a 'pioneer' of the trend).
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    MattW said:

    In my area for 12-13 miles in all directions, the LDs more or less committed Councillor Hari-Kiri with their turbo-remain positioning.

    I've been watching for substantial change since, and I have not seen anything significant.

    But in the East Midlands Tories are now 38 out of 46 MPs, compared with 30 in 2015.

    And I'd expect BoJo to have lost a few unless something turns around quickly.
    It's interesting how it's developing in the Midlands.

    Maybe it's a hangover from the miner's strike. I was only very young at the time but IIRC a lot of the Midlands pits never downed tools. Perhaps there's some vestigial, ingrained, instinctive anti-Toryness in parts of the north that did strike and were badly affected. Which is perhaps not as strong as it was but is still there. And the LDs are benefitting.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.

    2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.

    The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.

    Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
    Again, this "outside London" obsession - has London been towed to France? As you failed to understand my post, I'll put it differently. Starmer doesn't have to do better than Corbyn (even though he is doing better than Corbyn in, erm, England as a whole, Scotland and Wales) he has to do better than Johnson. And he is.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Keep an eye on Surrey. It's one thing for the tories to try to diss liberal leftie remainy London. It's another if they begin to lose control of Surrey.

    Especially as there are big-hitting tory MPs in Surrey:

    Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Chris Grayling, Kwasi Kwarteng etc.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    My step-mother was standing as a paper candidate for the Lib Dems in the local elections in London. Still waiting for the result.

    My Dad delighted in delivering leaflets for her Labour opponents, who should win comfortably...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited May 2022
    kle4 said:

    Surprising numbers stick it for decades after being elected as paper candidates. The good news is if you dont want to quit but dont want to work you only need attend 1 meeting every 6 months. Less if you can get approval to be absent.
    There are always quite a few councillor "scandals" of X moved to Australia / Cyprus / Y and has not resigned, which I choose to think is a very small minority.

    But allowances are now reasonable, and means that there is a decent compensation for time spent which might not have been there in the past. The median *basic* allowance in the UK is about £8k per annum, plus expenses and whatever else.

    (Average total is more like £11k.)

    That as an alternative to a part-time job is not too shabby.

    There's scope for a comparative study, since the Scottish Govt mandates a maximum basic allowance of 16k, and 26 from 32 councils pay the max.

    Data download:
    https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/councillors_allowances_2020
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551
    It's the comeback nobody asked for: Neil Parish is considering pleas from his fellow farmers to run as an independent in the by-election triggered by his own resignation

    From this morning's @timesredbox: https://link.thetimes.co.uk/view/61951cabe01f776f6d86936egfx0w.c6z/f5e71d14 https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1522492829364273154/photo/1
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,581
    DavidL said:

    Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.

    For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?

    In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.

    There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.

    I don't think that's going to look silly, not today or any time soon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2022
    That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.

    Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    kle4 said:

    Damn, and so close to Louis XIV's record too.
    The sun king’s Noël messages were legendary if a tad repetitive.

    L’état c’est à moi.

  • BLUE WALL: think Somerset council is one to watch closely this afternoon. If Lib Dems make big gains there that will really worry a lot of parly party. A Tory MP said to me - remember most of us are still in the south of England and so blue wall fights very important to us.

    JRM country. The Tories are in trouble.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,693

    The downside of the Tories losing Westminster et al is that they are going to double down on all the pathetic performative London hatred now. Also, I wonder whether the growing likelihood that Johnson loses his seat at the next election could be the final nail in his coffin?
    If they lose much of Scotland as well, as the locals seem to be implying, then they're going to end up with 2 no-go areas amounting to around 12-13 million people, and conversely no safe havens of their own except the Thames Estuary, as the Lib Dems start to counter attack in the West country and bring their NLAWS and Javelins into the old commuter belt heartland.

    This is always the risk with opening up new salients, as they did with the Red Wall. They risk over-extending their supply lines and leaving their flanks open to counteroffensives.
  • DougSeal said:

    Again, this "outside London" obsession - has London been towed to France? As you failed to understand my post, I'll put it differently. Starmer doesn't have to do better than Corbyn (even though he is doing better than Corbyn in, erm, England as a whole, Scotland and Wales) he has to do better than Johnson. And he is.
    Its not an obsession. London is good for Labour, nobody is disputing that, but there is a cap to how many seats can be gained in London. Just as there's a cap to how many seats can be gained in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Areas with distinct politics need to be analysed separately.

    Analysing outside London seats is appropriate if you want to understand what is happening outside London.

    You no more get an appropriate representation for what is happening in Lancashire by looking at London than you do looking at Glasgow and saying based on the results Gloucestershire is going to return a lot of SNP MPs.

    Starmer really should be looking to do better than Corbyn if he wants to be Prime Minister. Doing better than Johnson in the midterms might not mean anything if that's only slightly better and then there's swing-back afterwards.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    kjh said:

    Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
    So you couldn't thin of a better example, one that had actually happened? Whereas I gave an example where it had happened. Having a choice of just three was crass.

    After 2010, there were plenty of Labour supporters - I think on here, but it was just before I stopped lurking - who complained about the 'stitch-up' in the coalition negotiations. 'Fairness' seems very much to depend on whether something advantages you or not.

    Not standing also has other disadvantages: it pi**es people off who might have voted for your party (i.e. there's no way in heck I'd vote Green in our constituency at the next GE, however good the candidate), you 'lose' solid voters who would vote for you next time, and you lose real data on how many people in a constituency currently support your party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612

    Havering's interesting:

    Residents' Assoc. 21 (+2)
    Tories 19 (-4)
    Labour 9 (+4)
    Inds 0 (-2)

    So 40 Tories then...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,540
    Hartlepool Constituency:

    LAB gain local plurality from Ind

    Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21)
    Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7)
    LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1)
    Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4)
    Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)

    2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.

    Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    ydoethur said:

    ‘Any longer?’ What took them so long?

    By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
    As someone who lives near Bristol the traffic is shocking and normally there would be a public transport system to make up for it. In Birmingham where I used to live I had great options in Bristol, actually just outside, they are cancelling bus services. No trains available.
This discussion has been closed.