Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?
I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢
Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!
Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?
Nice to see so much yellow and green.
I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.
Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
This is most unfair on the Conservative voters in Richmond. They ought to be better represented than by a single councillor. Time to get rid of our unfair voting system, I think, and replace it with a voting system that ensures that the views of the electorate are properly represented.
But if we change it, we can't do what we all currently do and base voting on holding the candidates to account for their manifestos.
Obviously yesterday the Lib Dems had the best manifestos around the country, with good Labour manifestos and bad Tory manifestos. And the opinion polls will all reset to zero as not measuring anything until the next round of manifestos are published.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
It was so bad we had to have a National Government.
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland?
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
Beans on brown toast is one of my healthy comfort food go-tos. Egg on toast too.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland?
Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
If she goes during the World Cup...
If it happens during a large international event, it’ll be chaos because that show will go on regardless, and the question moves to issues like televising (or not) the matches.
The worst time domestically, would be in the middle of a general election campaign.
I'm not a monarchist but I do find talk of her death rather distasteful.
However, if she does die in the next two years I think Boris Johnson (if still PM) will do well out of it. I know that's an awful thing to say but as we saw with Ukraine, he's good when sentiment is more important than details.
I was going to loyally back her to be gone by Christmas. Given my recent record that would guarantee she sees 2023
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
Rearmament started to really kick in about 1934. Lots of investment in the steel industry, for example.
Many people don't realise that rearmament, in the UK, started before Hitler came to power. It was triggered by the previous German government laying down the pocket battleships.
The reason that rearmament was no more perceptible is that it wasn't massively advertised by the government - despite the huge spending. By 1936, the major constraint was on having something to spend money on - the money was going on factories to build weapons, not weapons themselves (mainly).
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Time for a regency.
Let us say we have a messy general election result in 2024 where no party can command a majority, are we really expecting a 98 year old Brenda to sort it out?
I am prepared to serve my country and serve as Regent.
Ahead of you in the unDictator stakes. Even got half a cabinet signed up.
If no party can actually command a majority or a working minority (via confidence and supply e.g SNP/LD give Starmer confidence vote) then it is easy for her majesty, there will be a 2nd GE.
The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.
This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
I find nothing undemocratic about pacts. Parties are not obligated to stand candidates and provide a wider choice for the electorate.
Its disappointing to have less choice but it's not undemocratic.
However, if it takes 9 months to form a Government (Netherlands?), or there is a new one every 9 months, that *is* a problem.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland?
Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
Green Party is for the upper middle classes, surely?
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Last update I saw suggested a swing of just over 2% from Con to Lab vs 2018, putting Labour 4-5 points ahead in the national vote. If that's where it stays, then we are back to more typical local election territory than the oddity of last year
So polls would be spot on.
Economic deterioration + Lib Dems + Scotland + Wales - it's Hung Parliament time
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
You have to admit that is kind of strange thinking by the local voters though given that the LDs are more Remainy than Labour. I think you are right about the second half of your comment - about localism - but I don't see the logic of not voting Labour but instead voting LD if the reason is anti-EU.
I think in the end people vote for a whole load of complex reasons and trying to ascribe one particular reason to a set of results in these sorts of elections is probably a hopeless task.
Oh yeah, you're right, totally goes against what the LDs stand for on a national level. That pro-EU, internationalist lifeblood that runs through their veins.
I think the LDs are being very wily. I'm extrapolating massively, obviously, but in my ward, Knottingley in the Wakefield Council area, since the referendum the three Labour cllrs we've had since since year dot have gone to two LD and one Labour - and it could well be three LDs by the end of today.
That's helped by a local cynicism about the Labour-run Council being viewed as ignoring us, admittedly.
But I think that the LDs are deliberately playing down what they stand for in their DNA in a bid to win in Leave areas that will just not go Tory, on hyperlocal, dare I say parochial, policies. And it seems to be working in places.
'Wily' is a pleasant way of describing the LibDems ... shallow, hypocritical, dishonest is a bit more accurate.
It is because the LibDems don't believe in anything definite, just a vague fuzziness.
So, they can simultaneously be right of Nigel Farage and left of Jeremy Corbyn, as the occasions suits.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
That's the deliberate use of cobalt 60, this story is about accidental plutonium contamination I think
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
West London vacuum cleaner factories versus Northern heavy industry.
Yes, while the Midlands grew strongly on the light engineering, motor trade and rag trade, ship building and the coalfields were grim places to be. Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry etc were boom towns.
The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.
This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
I must admit I find this funny for another reason: you're fairly lefty/anarchist, but you have a 'top paddock', and you have paneer and tofu at hand. It's grim up North DuraAceland?
Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
Green Party is for the upper middle classes, surely?
Well, here's a curiosity. My home is Hook Heath which is Heathlands ward: hence my name. It's frighteningly well to do with most houses over £1m. I am almost certain today's results will show that Heathlands has voted LibDem.
Richmond too.
And this is no flash in the pan. We saw it with Amersham & Chesham.
This loss of their core support in the south should really, really, trouble Conservatives. Playing to the new red wall supporters whilst losing your core is an absolute recipe for disaster especially if the economy is about to tank.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
Though when you irradiate food (zap it with radiation from outside), the food itself doesn't become radioactive.
Contaminate it (the food itself is radioactive) is another matter- though bananas give a decent Geiger counter signal and people don't worry about that. It's the potassium that does it.
I don't think so, unless the remaining results are wildly different to the last ones.
With half the Councils in the Lib Dems have already gained nearly twice that estimate, while Labour are off track.
The Tory figure might be close at the end, but the seats seem to be going yellow not red.
Good point. Counting up the England plus London seats, when the counting in England is done, they were pointing at: Con -101 (currently -122) Lab +19 (currently +34) LD +33 (currently +59) Grn +30 (currently +23)
So with half counted, Tories are already significantly worse than that prediction, Labour better, LD nearly double the total prediction, and Greens approaching it and not bad for the halfway point.
The Brexit boil has not been lanced. That's the conclusion from last night's results.
This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).
Why does that follow? What results last night would have caused you to post "at least this shows brexit is done and dusted"?
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
Irradiating food should not result in the food being radioactive. Unless you are doing something demented with neutrons - usually use gammas IIRC
Last update I saw suggested a swing of just over 2% from Con to Lab vs 2018, putting Labour 4-5 points ahead in the national vote. If that's where it stays, then we are back to more typical local election territory than the oddity of last year
So polls would be spot on.
Economic deterioration + Lib Dems + Scotland + Wales - it's Hung Parliament time
Curtice said so far Tories down 4 and Lab down 1 so that's why I think the Projected National Share will be about 3 not the 8 and 9 we have seen in recent VI polls
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Arf
Given what @kinabulu told about the unbelievable bin service in Camden, I am not surprised Labour are winning all.
We will collect your rubbish weekly, and let the rest of the country hit the landfill target.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Surprising numbers stick it for decades after being elected as paper candidates. The good news is if you dont want to quit but dont want to work you only need attend 1 meeting every 6 months. Less if you can get approval to be absent.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
Rearmament started to really kick in about 1934. Lots of investment in the steel industry, for example.
Many people don't realise that rearmament, in the UK, started before Hitler came to power. It was triggered by the previous German government laying down the pocket battleships.
The reason that rearmament was no more perceptible is that it wasn't massively advertised by the government - despite the huge spending. By 1936, the major constraint was on having something to spend money on - the money was going on factories to build weapons, not weapons themselves (mainly).
Mostly it was Neville Chamberlains budget of 1932, with a war bond haircut and tariff changes that led to strong growth. A poor Prime Minister, but his record as CoE was formidable.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
"Labour cannot rely on the fact that this is a terrible government with a terrible PM" Former Downing St spin doctor @campbellclaret gives his thoughts on why Labour isn't doing as well as it could #KayBurley #LocalElections22
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Roots?
Definition 2
Not an excellent batsman but poor captain then? Weird.
"Labour cannot rely on the fact that this is a terrible government with a terrible PM" Former Downing St spin doctor @campbellclaret gives his thoughts on why Labour isn't doing as well as it could #KayBurley #LocalElections22
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Because hating London is cool and acceptable now. London scum, liberal elite, bankers etc.
And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
In my area for 12-13 miles in all directions, the LDs more or less committed Councillor Hari-Kiri with their turbo-remain positioning.
I've been watching for substantial change since, and I have not seen anything significant.
But in the East Midlands Tories are now 38 out of 46 MPs, compared with 30 in 2015.
And I'd expect BoJo to have lost a few unless something turns around quickly.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
Radiating fruit such as strawberries increases shelf life. Considering how delays in picking and transport affect this at present, there is some logic.
Though when you irradiate food (zap it with radiation from outside), the food itself doesn't become radioactive.
Contaminate it (the food itself is radioactive) is another matter- though bananas give a decent Geiger counter signal and people don't worry about that. It's the potassium that does it.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
If she goes during the World Cup...
If it happens during a large international event, it’ll be chaos because that show will go on regardless, and the question moves to issues like televising (or not) the matches.
The worst time domestically, would be in the middle of a general election campaign.
It isn't looking likely that she sees another general election campaign.
World Cup will be interesting. Refusing to televise the matches would not go down well.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Roots?
Definition 2
Not an excellent batsman but poor captain then? Weird.
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
I am sorry that is just being partisan
Brexit may have a part in this, but there is no quick fix for any country and in parts of the EU inflation is way higher than the UK
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
You know, we speak a lot about the Red Wall and how voters feel taken for granted.
But it is the Blue Wall and London that now feels the same way, that they will just vote for Johnson whatever he does. Because Labour would be worse.
No longer. And the Tories don't care, which is the worrying/sad thing.
Can you honestly imagine David Cameron, William Hague, George Osborne, Theresa May being so utterly uninterested in people that have voted Tory for thirty years? No.
There are loads of Red Wall councils to declare today so still some way to go .
And so things might improve further for Labour or conversely help the Tories .
Although the Tories are hanging on further north their core vote further south seems to be in trouble . So lots of interest today as to what the Lib Dems do in those areas .
Are we back to Labour's core problem: they can win in graduate and public professional saturated cities (e.g. I think someone posted yesterday that Wandsworth is now 30% young female graduates) but not marginal working class and just about managing seats in midlands and north?
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Because hating London is cool and acceptable now. London scum, liberal elite, bankers etc.
And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
The downside of the Tories losing Westminster et al is that they are going to double down on all the pathetic performative London hatred now. Also, I wonder whether the growing likelihood that Johnson loses his seat at the next election could be the final nail in his coffin?
Unimpressive from Labour. Not a party that looks like winning in 2024.
Lab most seats looks likely though.
I really do not see how anyone can tell this far out how GE24 will pan out
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
But it's worse here compared to the other major economies because of local factors e.g. Brexit and a vile incompetent Government. See BoE, IMF and World Bank reports.
Inflation is lower in the UK than both the Eurozone and the United States of America.
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
Are we back to Labour's core problem: they can win in graduate and public professional saturated cities (e.g. I think someone posted yesterday that Wandsworth is now 30% young female graduates) but not marginal working class and just about managing seats in midlands and north?
Regular viewers of The Dura Ace Show may recall that I have visited Hartlepool, spiritual home of the new tory party, on a few occasions to attend functions at the RN Museum. Thus I have a few "Poolie" friends on FB. One of them reports that one of their polling booths had to be closed due to a "wanking incident".
These are the people for whom every government policy is now calibrated to please. God help us all.
Usually it's the candidates who are utter tossers.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
That sounds like a Parish Council election.
As I mentioned yesterday, our town council ballot paper listed 21 names, and we had to select up to 19 names from it. I'm pretty sure none of the names had a party attached, and few had bothered to send any literature out about their policies.
I noticed that a couple of names shared the same address. It'd be embarrassing if one of them got into the council and the other did not...
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
There are loads of Red Wall councils to declare today so still some way to go .
And so things might improve further for Labour or conversely help the Tories .
Although the Tories are hanging on further north their core vote further south seems to be in trouble . So lots of interest today as to what the Lib Dems do in those areas .
@SouthamObserver had a good point, namely that not enough attention is being paid to the Cumberland results - it's classic Red Wall territory (and arguably that area was a 'pioneer' of the trend).
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
In my area for 12-13 miles in all directions, the LDs more or less committed Councillor Hari-Kiri with their turbo-remain positioning.
I've been watching for substantial change since, and I have not seen anything significant.
But in the East Midlands Tories are now 38 out of 46 MPs, compared with 30 in 2015.
And I'd expect BoJo to have lost a few unless something turns around quickly.
It's interesting how it's developing in the Midlands.
Maybe it's a hangover from the miner's strike. I was only very young at the time but IIRC a lot of the Midlands pits never downed tools. Perhaps there's some vestigial, ingrained, instinctive anti-Toryness in parts of the north that did strike and were badly affected. Which is perhaps not as strong as it was but is still there. And the LDs are benefitting.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
Again, this "outside London" obsession - has London been towed to France? As you failed to understand my post, I'll put it differently. Starmer doesn't have to do better than Corbyn (even though he is doing better than Corbyn in, erm, England as a whole, Scotland and Wales) he has to do better than Johnson. And he is.
Keep an eye on Surrey. It's one thing for the tories to try to diss liberal leftie remainy London. It's another if they begin to lose control of Surrey.
Especially as there are big-hitting tory MPs in Surrey:
Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Chris Grayling, Kwasi Kwarteng etc.
Imagine running as a paper candidate as a favour, going to bed all happy, then being woken up in the middle of the night with the words “you’ve got to attend council meetings for the next four years”. https://twitter.com/richardosley/status/1522389725574750208
Surprising numbers stick it for decades after being elected as paper candidates. The good news is if you dont want to quit but dont want to work you only need attend 1 meeting every 6 months. Less if you can get approval to be absent.
There are always quite a few councillor "scandals" of X moved to Australia / Cyprus / Y and has not resigned, which I choose to think is a very small minority.
But allowances are now reasonable, and means that there is a decent compensation for time spent which might not have been there in the past. The median *basic* allowance in the UK is about £8k per annum, plus expenses and whatever else.
(Average total is more like £11k.)
That as an alternative to a part-time job is not too shabby.
There's scope for a comparative study, since the Scottish Govt mandates a maximum basic allowance of 16k, and 26 from 32 councils pay the max.
It's the comeback nobody asked for: Neil Parish is considering pleas from his fellow farmers to run as an independent in the by-election triggered by his own resignation
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
I don't think that's going to look silly, not today or any time soon.
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Damn, and so close to Louis XIV's record too.
The sun king’s Noël messages were legendary if a tad repetitive.
BLUE WALL: think Somerset council is one to watch closely this afternoon. If Lib Dems make big gains there that will really worry a lot of parly party. A Tory MP said to me - remember most of us are still in the south of England and so blue wall fights very important to us.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Because hating London is cool and acceptable now. London scum, liberal elite, bankers etc.
And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
The downside of the Tories losing Westminster et al is that they are going to double down on all the pathetic performative London hatred now. Also, I wonder whether the growing likelihood that Johnson loses his seat at the next election could be the final nail in his coffin?
If they lose much of Scotland as well, as the locals seem to be implying, then they're going to end up with 2 no-go areas amounting to around 12-13 million people, and conversely no safe havens of their own except the Thames Estuary, as the Lib Dems start to counter attack in the West country and bring their NLAWS and Javelins into the old commuter belt heartland.
This is always the risk with opening up new salients, as they did with the Red Wall. They risk over-extending their supply lines and leaving their flanks open to counteroffensives.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Can someone please explain to me the obsession with "outside London"? Has London been towed to France or something? All three main party leaders represent Greater London constituencies.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
Hull have gone from Labour-led to Lib Dem of course.
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
Again, this "outside London" obsession - has London been towed to France? As you failed to understand my post, I'll put it differently. Starmer doesn't have to do better than Corbyn (even though he is doing better than Corbyn in, erm, England as a whole, Scotland and Wales) he has to do better than Johnson. And he is.
Its not an obsession. London is good for Labour, nobody is disputing that, but there is a cap to how many seats can be gained in London. Just as there's a cap to how many seats can be gained in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Areas with distinct politics need to be analysed separately.
Analysing outside London seats is appropriate if you want to understand what is happening outside London.
You no more get an appropriate representation for what is happening in Lancashire by looking at London than you do looking at Glasgow and saying based on the results Gloucestershire is going to return a lot of SNP MPs.
Starmer really should be looking to do better than Corbyn if he wants to be Prime Minister. Doing better than Johnson in the midterms might not mean anything if that's only slightly better and then there's swing-back afterwards.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
So you couldn't thin of a better example, one that had actually happened? Whereas I gave an example where it had happened. Having a choice of just three was crass.
After 2010, there were plenty of Labour supporters - I think on here, but it was just before I stopped lurking - who complained about the 'stitch-up' in the coalition negotiations. 'Fairness' seems very much to depend on whether something advantages you or not.
Not standing also has other disadvantages: it pi**es people off who might have voted for your party (i.e. there's no way in heck I'd vote Green in our constituency at the next GE, however good the candidate), you 'lose' solid voters who would vote for you next time, and you lose real data on how many people in a constituency currently support your party.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’ -John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews
By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
As someone who lives near Bristol the traffic is shocking and normally there would be a public transport system to make up for it. In Birmingham where I used to live I had great options in Bristol, actually just outside, they are cancelling bus services. No trains available.
Comments
Obviously yesterday the Lib Dems had the best manifestos around the country, with good Labour manifestos and bad Tory manifestos. And the opinion polls will all reset to zero as not measuring anything until the next round of manifestos are published.
But I'd be surprised if it works out much different from a 5-6 % Labour lead.
Though from my father, I do have a soft spot for cold baked beans as an accompaniment to pork pie, preferably with mango chutney or lime pickle. It sounds weird, but really works well as a combination.
Similar things have been levelled at me before now!
The worst time domestically, would be in the middle of a general election campaign.
Many people don't realise that rearmament, in the UK, started before Hitler came to power. It was triggered by the previous German government laying down the pocket battleships.
The reason that rearmament was no more perceptible is that it wasn't massively advertised by the government - despite the huge spending. By 1936, the major constraint was on having something to spend money on - the money was going on factories to build weapons, not weapons themselves (mainly).
This divide is likely to remain for a while yet but there is a definite trend to "Brexit being a calamity" so that will favour Labour / LDs in the medium term (see economic impacts etc.).
Perfectly good results for Labour but we still await a whole load more, and I'm particularly interested to see what happens in Scotland.
The National Equivalent share is out later and based on actual voters rather than Polls
If it shows a 6 % lead that would mean Polls were in right ballpark.
I think it will show about 3% meaning Polls we're overestimating Lab.
I could be wrong not long to wait now
Ok then
So polls would be spot on.
Economic deterioration + Lib Dems + Scotland + Wales - it's Hung Parliament time
It is because the LibDems don't believe in anything definite, just a vague fuzziness.
So, they can simultaneously be right of Nigel Farage and left of Jeremy Corbyn, as the occasions suits.
Good to see the continued ejection of the Tories from London though. Thoroughly deserved!
Richmond too.
And this is no flash in the pan. We saw it with Amersham & Chesham.
This loss of their core support in the south should really, really, trouble Conservatives. Playing to the new red wall supporters whilst losing your core is an absolute recipe for disaster especially if the economy is about to tank.
Contaminate it (the food itself is radioactive) is another matter- though bananas give a decent Geiger counter signal and people don't worry about that. It's the potassium that does it.
Con -101 (currently -122)
Lab +19 (currently +34)
LD +33 (currently +59)
Grn +30 (currently +23)
So with half counted, Tories are already significantly worse than that prediction, Labour better, LD nearly double the total prediction, and Greens approaching it and not bad for the halfway point.
I think the Baxter MRP skewed expectations a bit.
It is clear the UK and the rest of the world is looking at several years of very difficult economics, especially for households and how that is addressed between now and then will have an impact on the election and whether labour can be trusted on this, when as the famous note from Liam Byrne stated 'there's no money'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-61336049
Lib Dem / Green motion in what is/was Corbynista territory.
When they were the ones two years ago not saying whether the Tories would win again - but how large the majority would be. 100 seats, 200 seats?
Labour is back - and they know it.
I fear though that this is all going to get very dirty. Johnson is not someone who plays by rules and being the turd he is, will stop at nothing.
It's going to be a very nasty time in British politics.
We will collect your rubbish weekly, and let the rest of the country hit the landfill target.
As for outside London, if one frames it was Lab v. Con, the Reds win. In a two horse race, as at 8.50am, the Tories had lost 56 council seats outside London to Labour's loss of six. Minus 6 is a lot higher than minus 56. Labour have done vastly better than the Tories across the board.
However, the standout result for me is that local authority, Hull, that went 67% for Leave has just returned a Lib Dem council.
https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1522489612123648000
Get. Him. Back.
And this is why the Tories just lost Mrs Thatcher's favourite council.
I've been watching for substantial change since, and I have not seen anything significant.
But in the East Midlands Tories are now 38 out of 46 MPs, compared with 30 in 2015.
And I'd expect BoJo to have lost a few unless something turns around quickly.
World Cup will be interesting. Refusing to televise the matches would not go down well.
Current tally:
Labour 55 (+7)
Tories 5 (-7)*
(* since 2018, one Tory defected to RefUK)
Brexit may have a part in this, but there is no quick fix for any country and in parts of the EU inflation is way higher than the UK
2018 was "dire" for Labour and outside London on your own figures it is worse than 2018. So Starmer on your own figures is doing worse than even Corbyn outside London.
The Government losing seats in the midterms is to be expected, the Opposition doing so is not.
Next year's local elections will be interesting though as next years were last held at Theresa May's nadir.
The only people who predicted an 800 seat loss were the Tories themselves. Thankfully not being swallowed by anyone else.
Labour 47 (+2)
Tories 13 (-2)
But it is the Blue Wall and London that now feels the same way, that they will just vote for Johnson whatever he does. Because Labour would be worse.
No longer. And the Tories don't care, which is the worrying/sad thing.
Can you honestly imagine David Cameron, William Hague, George Osborne, Theresa May being so utterly uninterested in people that have voted Tory for thirty years? No.
And so things might improve further for Labour or conversely help the Tories .
Although the Tories are hanging on further north their core vote further south seems to be in trouble . So lots of interest today as to what the Lib Dems do in those areas .
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-cheap-grenades-expensive-tanks/31835434.html
So which major economies is it higher in the UK than there due to Brexit?
I noticed that a couple of names shared the same address. It'd be embarrassing if one of them got into the council and the other did not...
Again, WORKINGTON has swung back to Labour - they just took control again.
This not a straight London pro Labour, north anti.
Residents' Assoc. 21 (+2)
Tories 19 (-4)
Labour 9 (+4)
Inds 0 (-2)
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Maybe it's a hangover from the miner's strike. I was only very young at the time but IIRC a lot of the Midlands pits never downed tools. Perhaps there's some vestigial, ingrained, instinctive anti-Toryness in parts of the north that did strike and were badly affected. Which is perhaps not as strong as it was but is still there. And the LDs are benefitting.
Especially as there are big-hitting tory MPs in Surrey:
Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Chris Grayling, Kwasi Kwarteng etc.
My Dad delighted in delivering leaflets for her Labour opponents, who should win comfortably...
But allowances are now reasonable, and means that there is a decent compensation for time spent which might not have been there in the past. The median *basic* allowance in the UK is about £8k per annum, plus expenses and whatever else.
(Average total is more like £11k.)
That as an alternative to a part-time job is not too shabby.
There's scope for a comparative study, since the Scottish Govt mandates a maximum basic allowance of 16k, and 26 from 32 councils pay the max.
Data download:
https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/councillors_allowances_2020
From this morning's @timesredbox: https://link.thetimes.co.uk/view/61951cabe01f776f6d86936egfx0w.c6z/f5e71d14 https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1522492829364273154/photo/1
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
L’état c’est à moi.
JRM country. The Tories are in trouble.
This is always the risk with opening up new salients, as they did with the Red Wall. They risk over-extending their supply lines and leaving their flanks open to counteroffensives.
Analysing outside London seats is appropriate if you want to understand what is happening outside London.
You no more get an appropriate representation for what is happening in Lancashire by looking at London than you do looking at Glasgow and saying based on the results Gloucestershire is going to return a lot of SNP MPs.
Starmer really should be looking to do better than Corbyn if he wants to be Prime Minister. Doing better than Johnson in the midterms might not mean anything if that's only slightly better and then there's swing-back afterwards.
After 2010, there were plenty of Labour supporters - I think on here, but it was just before I stopped lurking - who complained about the 'stitch-up' in the coalition negotiations. 'Fairness' seems very much to depend on whether something advantages you or not.
Not standing also has other disadvantages: it pi**es people off who might have voted for your party (i.e. there's no way in heck I'd vote Green in our constituency at the next GE, however good the candidate), you 'lose' solid voters who would vote for you next time, and you lose real data on how many people in a constituency currently support your party.
LAB gain local plurality from Ind
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21)
Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7)
LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1)
Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4)
Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.