Yes. Notable that it's not been officially announced by the Ukrainians. Think this is much less likely to have happened now.
There’s definitely something going on there, lots of boats around and a US surveillance drone keeping watch from 55,000’.
Fingers crossed she’s joining Moskva on the bottom.
Surely the US surveillance aircraft and drones are flying around the Black Sea all the time at present. I don't think that in itself indicates anything is going on. Dunno about the boats, though.
Morning all. So, a new dawn has broken has it not? No, it hasn’t.
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
Nice analysis.
Basically, a party doesn't go from the kind of defeat Labour suffered in 2019 straight to government within one parliamentary term. It's a two term project but it's made more difficult by Starmer being dull as dishwater and also being mainly associated with the "People's Vote" shenanigans in the 17-19 Parliament.
One more Con win with a small majority in 2023/2024, Labour ditch Starmer and return to government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's likely to be a Labour decade is my best guess.
Of course it does depend on Labour choosing someone sensible after Starmer and not going for another Corbynista.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
It is all about Wandsworth and London for Starmer, Labour and the media and if he was good at politics he would have been to Cumberland first with the cameras announcing labour's success
London has been trending Labour, even when -nationally- Labour were being shellacked. So agreed, it is important.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are outperforming expectations in Scotland too. Just topped the poll in Dunfermline from previous 7th place.
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
If we ignore London, Southampton, probably Wales and Scotland and just focus on Hull, Starmer had an absolute shocker compared to the Bearded Wonder.
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Acquileia.
Top of the class. Just off to have a look round the Roman ruins..
I was fortunate to have read about in John Julius Norwich's History of Byzantium.
Of course it does depend on Labour choosing someone sensible after Starmer and not going for another Corbynista.
They wouldn't be that silly would they?
They should go for Wes Streeting. He seems to be the only Shadow Cabinet member who sounds convincing and isn't scared to talk sense. He even knows the difference between a man and a woman: a low bar, I know, but one which, incredibly, most of them fail.
Sir Keir Starmer says Labour's victories mean the party is "back on track" for the next General Election and the results are a "massive turning point" for the left.
Of the six Surrey councils that had elections yesterday, Tandridge District Council is the only one to have completed its count overnight. Here is when counts start in the other five:
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
Haven't read into it, but I'd be surprised if it was just spline fitting. I'd expect it to be demographics based with some taking account of recent perturbations (e.g. if there has been a light/heavy year for deaths then the next year might be the opposite).
The Sweden graph, FWIW, suggests it's a bit more than just splines, to me.
The best analysis, which will take a few years for the data to be available, might be to model deaths on data before and after the pandemic, based on demographics, and use those to impute the baseline for the pandemic years.
Which is a valid suggestion, except that you won't be able to remove any COVID-tail effect which I have a hypothesis is going to be non-negligable. (That is, that excess deaths in the next 5 years or so will be higher than in a non-pandemic universe, and I think that this is principally going to be due to lockdown rather than COVID. Think cancer patients who have been identified late, and so whilst the primary is now being dealt with suffer from secondarys in a couple of years etc)
Yeah, taking those effects into account, e.g. change in mortality rates for cancers, and/or really starting later (i.e. I don't think this year's data would be particulary good to form part of that estimate, maybe not the next couple). And that's years down the line, so more of academic interest.
Using simply the previous five year average might be as good as anything, certainly for an estimate right now, as LostPassword mentioned earlier. Probably fairly good for most western nations unless there are big demographic changes just kicking in around 2020. Less good for e.g. Syria and other recent warzones, but the Covid and even all cause deaths data from countries like that are probably pretty poor anyway.
For once the SCons seem to have managed their expectations completely honestly.
Looks like I am going back to an SNP council again. Hey ho. The efficiency of the Unionist vote has definitely declined this time, probably because the Tories are making themselves so unattractive to their own supporters, let alone unionist inclined supporters of other parties. Its a bit like when I voted Tory in the GE when Labour were a (distant) second because I could not thole voting for Corbyn.
Con : 35.6 (+10.1 from 2021, -16.3 from BE21) Lab: 42.8 (+11.4, +13.7) LD: 1.3 (+0.7, +0.1) Ind: 16.1 (-15.4, +4.4) Oth: 4.1 (-6.9, -1.8) (mainly fringe right)
2021 was an all seats up year, so balance of candidates has changed substantiallly, with Con only standing 1/3 in most wards last year and a full slate this year and fewer Ind and Others this year. All LE21 votes were counted.
Nonetheless Lab hitting 40% with other numbers and candidate spread closer to GE levels seems OK.
BJO please explain?
“LAB gain local plurality from Ind”
They should have worn a mask, they wouldn’t have such a bad chest now.
Bit rubbish on the later Western Empire. Mr. F might well be right. I would've guessed Mediolanum (upon checking, it's effectively Milan now and so can't possibly be right, but the name's different enough I didn't connect the two).
For once the SCons seem to have managed their expectations completely honestly.
Looks like I am going back to an SNP council again. Hey ho. The efficiency of the Unionist vote has definitely declined this time, probably because the Tories are making themselves so unattractive to their own supporters, let alone unionist inclined supporters of other parties. Its a bit like when I voted Tory in the GE when Labour were a (distant) second because I could not thole voting for Corbyn.
Of course it does depend on Labour choosing someone sensible after Starmer and not going for another Corbynista.
They wouldn't be that silly would they?
They should go for Wes Streeting. He seems to be the only Shadow Cabinet member who sounds convincing and isn't scared to talk sense. He even knows the difference between a man and a woman: a low bar, I know, but one which, incredibly, most of them fail.
Labour's problem is that they always have a good reason to choose another average white man as leader.
For once the SCons seem to have managed their expectations completely honestly.
Looks like I am going back to an SNP council again. Hey ho. The efficiency of the Unionist vote has definitely declined this time, probably because the Tories are making themselves so unattractive to their own supporters, let alone unionist inclined supporters of other parties. Its a bit like when I voted Tory in the GE when Labour were a (distant) second because I could not thole voting for Corbyn.
Turnout not too bad, anyway.
Certainly higher than I expected. The lack of interest around here, other than from the very well funded SNP, has been palpable.
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Acquileia.
Top of the class. Just off to have a look round the Roman ruins..
I was fortunate to have read about in John Julius Norwich's History of Byzantium.
So, the Green Party was the dog that did not bark.
Greens displaced the Labour leader in Oxford. LibDems had stood down in their favour though, so that may have had some considerable effect.
Not the leader. That's Susan Brown, who kept her seat. They displaced Colin Cook, who's chairman of the planning committee.
Colin Cook (Labour) has held that seat for donkey's.
He was my Councillor when I lived in that ward ~ 20 years ago.
I was leading a dissolute life then which resulted in the kind of hopelessness and lack of direction that drives people to vote Liberal Democrat
It was the ward in which OGH once stood as a candidate
Indeed. I like Colin, he knows his stuff. Political considerations aside, he'll be a loss to Oxford Labour and to decent scrutiny of planning applications, though there's an argument that neither Westgate nor Oxford North should have got through in the forms they did.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Of course it does depend on Labour choosing someone sensible after Starmer and not going for another Corbynista.
They wouldn't be that silly would they?
They should go for Wes Streeting. He seems to be the only Shadow Cabinet member who sounds convincing and isn't scared to talk sense. He even knows the difference between a man and a woman: a low bar, I know, but one which, incredibly, most of them fail.
Labour's problem is that they always have a good reason to choose another average white man as leader.
I am not sure they can carry on doing this.
Diane Abbott ticks almost all of your boxes. Worth a try, surely?
A mystical SLAB revival that could influence GE '24 might be indicated by gains in Glasgow and the Lanarkshires (N & S), but also Fife, Inverclyde and East/Midlothian.
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
If election were decided by Posters in Windows then the Greens are going to clean sweep Edinburgh.
Labour doing well in most of London and gaining councils like Westminster and Barnet and Wandsworth from the Tories but not everywhere. Labour has lost seats to the Tories in Enfield for example.
Outside of London a mixed picture for them, they have gained seats in some areas like Colchester, Lincoln and Hartlepool but lost them in places like Sunderland and Harlow and failed to make gains in Swindon. They also lost Hull to the LDs.
The LDs making the biggest advance so far, especially in Remain areas like West Oxfordshire
I just called some daft woman in a PR company and I could hear her dog barking, her partner chatting, her plumber arriving, and the woman herself was an echoey voice in a tin bucket, barely comprehensible
She said "Yes, I'm working from home, it's not ideal sorry you can't hear me"
WELL GET BACK TO THE FUCKING OFFICE THEN
I've had enough of these shirkers.
*stares at the Aegean; orders another coffee*
Very good.
The last time I went in to the office, the first thing someone said to me on the first Teams call of the day was to complain about the level of background noise. WFH, I have a mute button for the TV. No such option for shouty colleagues in the office.
Sir Keir Starmer says Labour's victories mean the party is "back on track" for the next General Election and the results are a "massive turning point" for the left.
There have been stories circulating since last night about a Russian frigate being hit by a Ukrainian Neptune missile in the Black Sea. There has been little hard evidence, so didn’t circulate. Now there seems to be better details emerging.\
Euromaidan Pressm @EuromaidanPress Explosion followed by a fire occurred on a 🇷🇺project 11356P frigate near Zmiyinyi Island - Odesa media Dumskaya citing its sources
A mystical SLAB revival that could influence GE '24 might be indicated by gains in Glasgow and the Lanarkshires (N & S), but also Fife, Inverclyde and East/Midlothian.
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
If election were decided by Posters in Windows then the Greens are going to clean sweep Edinburgh.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Its almost like people have got what they voted for.
And with inflation lower than in the Eurozone. That wasn't in the script.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Of course he can't
If it was Johnson he would be all over it.
Labour are a metropolitan big city party and they will revel in Wandsworth and Westminster and neglect the towns and the provinces.
Ed Davey: “The earthquake in North Shropshire has turned into a shockwave across our country…I think the tectonic plates of British politics are shifting. I think it’s up to Conservative MPs to shove Boris Johnson into the abyss.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522518343206543361
Sir Keir Starmer says Labour's victories mean the party is "back on track" for the next General Election and the results are a "massive turning point" for the left.
But, as usual, the BBC's utterly crap coverage of the local elections gives a very distorted view. Those who count overnight, and in particular those in London, set the tone for the BBC and we had a smiling SKS (standing outside a public toilet somewhat weirdly) in hours of reports. Even now the Lib Dems are not getting the credit they deserve in the headlines.
My guess is that the perception will be that Labour has done far better in these elections than they actually have.
Sir Keir Starmer says Labour's victories mean the party is "back on track" for the next General Election and the results are a "massive turning point" for the left.
A reminder that headlining figures in terms of *votes* in Scotland is a tricky beast under STV - here's a ward where the SNP got 34% of first-preferences to Labour's 31%, but it's Labour who gain a seat and have two to the SNP's one (with the Greens also getting in on the party) Quote Tweet
So, the Green Party was the dog that did not bark.
Greens displaced the Labour leader in Oxford. LibDems had stood down in their favour though, so that may have had some considerable effect.
Not the leader. That's Susan Brown, who kept her seat. They displaced Colin Cook, who's chairman of the planning committee.
Colin Cook (Labour) has held that seat for donkey's.
He was my Councillor when I lived in that ward ~ 20 years ago.
I was leading a dissolute life then which resulted in the kind of hopelessness and lack of direction that drives people to vote Liberal Democrat
It was the ward in which OGH once stood as a candidate
Indeed. I like Colin, he knows his stuff. Political considerations aside, he'll be a loss to Oxford Labour and to decent scrutiny of planning applications, though there's an argument that neither Westgate nor Oxford North should have got through in the forms they did.
I dislike Colin.
He vigorously opposed a small extension I wanted. I attended the Planning Committee Meeting.
All the Labour Councillors opposed my Loft extension.
I then listened in disbelief to the discussion on the next application -- a complete restructuring of a listed building on behalf of the owner, someone called Councillor Susan Brown 😉😉
Curiously, the same Labour councillors had no qualms about the complete restructuring of the listed building.
I have lived under a number of different Labour/LibDem/Plaid Cymru/NOC Councils -- I have no hesitation in saying Labour's hegemony on Oxford City Council caused the worst run Council I have direct experience of.
The Conservatives won Queensbury Ward in Brent, for the first time since 2006, which may have implications for the result in Harrow, a council they only narrowly failed to win in 2018.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
London will produce at least 5-10 new Labour MPs in 2024.
Labour has good odds of picking up 4-10 seats in Scotland.
The Tories are going backwards in the Red Wall - and Labour will pick up at least 15 seats there.
The Lib Dems could pick up at least 10 seats in the South.
So that on my count, is the Tories down at least 35 seats before the cost of living crisis appears. So they are on a wafer thin majority as of right now.
These are not encouraging signs for them - and these estimates fall right on the edge of my range of reverse 2010 to Labour landslide
A mystical SLAB revival that could influence GE '24 might be indicated by gains in Glasgow and the Lanarkshires (N & S), but also Fife, Inverclyde and East/Midlothian.
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
If election were decided by Posters in Windows then the Greens are going to clean sweep Edinburgh.
THey're tweeting about the Home Office's version ...
Sir Keir Starmer says Labour's victories mean the party is "back on track" for the next General Election and the results are a "massive turning point" for the left.
But, as usual, the BBC's utterly crap coverage of the local elections gives a very distorted view. Those who count overnight, and in particular those in London, set the tone for the BBC and we had a smiling SKS (standing outside a public toilet somewhat weirdly) in hours of reports. Even now the Lib Dems are not getting the credit they deserve in the headlines.
My guess is that the perception will be that Labour has done far better in these elections than they actually have.
The BBC's early morning analysis was " a good night for Conservatives a bad night for Labour"...and then the London councils fell, and it was a "bad night for the Conservatives and a disappointing night outside London for Labour" (my precis).
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Bryant has noticed. https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1522482931859656704 So far no London commentators seem to have noticed this. The victories in Southampton and Cumberland seem as significant as Westminster Wandsworth and Barnet, if not more so?
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
SKS promised to unite all wings of the Party and keep some of the most popular Socialist policies right up to the moment he got elected.
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Acquileia.
Top of the class. Just off to have a look round the Roman ruins..
I was fortunate to have read about in John Julius Norwich's History of Byzantium.
The ruins are just scattered about by the roadside, with the traffic passing by dead straight through the town. Then of course you realise that the main road has been there for quite some time...
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Bryant has noticed. https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1522482931859656704 So far no London commentators seem to have noticed this. The victories in Southampton and Cumberland seem as significant as Westminster Wandsworth and Barnet, if not more so?
I think it’s more like, as HY was generously alluding to, progress made in places like Peterborough has slipped under radar. But it’s the sort of vote if reproduced in General Election, can give Labour the seat.
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
SKS promised to unite all wings of the Party and keep some of the most popular Socialist policies right up to the moment he got elected.
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
Even though under all polling Burnham polls worse than Starmer - okay.
And I watched him run two leadership campaigns, both of which were terrible.
"The 33 net gains of seats it has registered so far (all of them in London) is a consequence of the decline in Conservative support rather than any electoral advance by Labour" - Prof Sir John Curtice
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
SKS promised to unite all wings of the Party and keep some of the most popular Socialist policies right up to the moment he got elected.
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
Even though under all polling Burnham polls worse than Starmer - okay.
And I watched him run two leadership campaigns, both of which were terrible.
If Starmer fails and you think Burnham is terrible, who would be your preference for next leader?
Something for everyone to celebrate in these elections.
Labour are winning again. LibDems are out of their abyss. Greens establishing themselves as a force. Tories doing well enough to keep big dog. SNP holding ground Corbynite loyalists have a few holes to whinge about.
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Acquileia.
Top of the class. Just off to have a look round the Roman ruins..
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
SKS promised to unite all wings of the Party and keep some of the most popular Socialist policies right up to the moment he got elected.
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
Even though under all polling Burnham polls worse than Starmer - okay.
And I watched him run two leadership campaigns, both of which were terrible.
If Starmer fails and you think Burnham is terrible, who would be your preference for next leader?
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Trips up North are often fraught with beer and curry action danger for Starmer.
Presumably this is just some kind of spoofery, but the mad thing is that these days I can actually conceive of some kind of Tory idiot saying it.
No this is exactly the attitude of today's Tory party and why they are being removed from London and the South East seat by seat.
We are utterly fed up of being insulted and shouted at by these bastards every day. I am not the cause of the issues in the Red Wall.
Graun feed confirms it's real - and further info from Ms Fisher.
Also has a pic of Mr Johnson with a painting of HMtQ he has just made, about Primary 5 standard I reckon. What's he trying to hide on Google like he did with the cardboard buses??
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
I just called some daft woman in a PR company and I could hear her dog barking, her partner chatting, her plumber arriving, and the woman herself was an echoey voice in a tin bucket, barely comprehensible
She said "Yes, I'm working from home, it's not ideal sorry you can't hear me"
WELL GET BACK TO THE FUCKING OFFICE THEN
I've had enough of these shirkers.
*stares at the Aegean; orders another coffee*
Very good.
The last time I went in to the office, the first thing someone said to me on the first Teams call of the day was to complain about the level of background noise. WFH, I have a mute button for the TV. No such option for shouty colleagues in the office.
I'm doing my one day a month in the office today. Essential to keep in touch with the team and I'd want to do more, but living 120 miles away isn't a viable commute!
Mask wearing on the DLR and tube definitely under 20%, possibly under 10%.
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
I'm struggling to understand your point of view. You must concede that if Corbyn was still i/c Labour their results and future prospects would be bleak. So for the sake of the Party they chose a new leadewr SKS. Is your problem that you didn't agree with the Pary's choice? If so that's a rather bitter position to take. You surely didn't think they should have stuck with Corbyn?
SKS promised to unite all wings of the Party and keep some of the most popular Socialist policies right up to the moment he got elected.
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
The last three letters of your post is the key here.
Something for everyone to celebrate in these elections.
Labour are winning again. LibDems are out of their abyss. Greens establishing themselves as a force. Tories doing well enough to keep big dog. SNP holding ground Corbynite loyalists have a few holes to whinge about.
It’s a sunny day.
I think so. The Tories will now sit back and say: let's give Boris one last chance, but he must realize that he's drinking in Last Chance Saloon, we've tolerated his betrayals and misdemeanours time and time again but no more, this time he really must shine.
Presumably this is just some kind of spoofery, but the mad thing is that these days I can actually conceive of some kind of Tory idiot saying it.
Nope. This is exactly the angle they will be going for. “You don’t really want loony remainer effete liberal woke metropolitan elite Starmer in charge do you? We got Brexit done. They don’t understand you.”
See the GOP playbook, just slightly less blatantly unpleasant.
They then hope that enough of the middle classes in the shires hold their nose and stick with them for fear of Labour for economic reasons.
I hate to say that I think it’s an electoral strategy that they could squeeze a close victory out of.
Starmer needs to prepare himself for the onslaught that is coming. He also needs to put a lot of work into denting some of those attack lines.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
“ The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. “
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Were FoM still in place, I’d be inclined to agree with you, but the labour shortage will force firms to invest in both capital and training, especially at the lower end of the labour market.
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
Broadly I don’t disagree. But you don’t speak for where we are now before change for better from years of investment in training. Rumanian chefs gone home, now can’t get a chef anywhere for example.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
But this is not Brexit. EVERYWHERE in the western world is suffering staff shortages, especially in Hospitality
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Brexit is going to be blamed though just like the EU used to get blamed for everything. It's the circle of life.
The Knottingley ward, in Yvette Cooper's constituency, now has three Lib Dem cllrs, losing three Lab cllrs on the bounce.
A well-known local man who stood for Labour lost by 300 votes. The LD guy is not from round 'ere, but he's lived here for 20 years so maybe he's got his W Yorks citizenship.
I thought Labour might squeak it.
Edit - looks like it was the Tories wot swung it. They normally get about a quarter of the vote, got 8.5%. LD 50%, Lab 40%.
Comments
They wouldn't be that silly would they?
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are outperforming expectations in Scotland too. Just topped the poll in Dunfermline from previous 7th place.
Lab: 45.3% (+12.8)
SNP: 30.6% (-4.7)
Con: 13.6% (-7.9)
WDCP: 10.4% (+4.8)
Elected: 2 Lab, SNP (+1 Lab, -1 Con)
Turnout: tbc #BBSLE22 ^AF
This is a good omen for Scottish Labour. Could they even get a majority on West Dunbartonshire?
#LocalElections2022 : https://election.news.sky.com/ https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1522521554516652032/video/1
Using simply the previous five year average might be as good as anything, certainly for an estimate right now, as LostPassword mentioned earlier. Probably fairly good for most western nations unless there are big demographic changes just kicking in around 2020. Less good for e.g. Syria and other recent warzones, but the Covid and even all cause deaths data from countries like that are probably pretty poor anyway.
The Chinese are the serious naval players these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer
He was my Councillor when I lived in that ward ~ 20 years ago.
I was leading a dissolute life then which resulted in the kind of hopelessness and lack of direction that drives people to vote Liberal Democrat
It was the ward in which OGH once stood as a candidate
They should have worn a mask, they wouldn’t have such a bad chest now.
Bit rubbish on the later Western Empire. Mr. F might well be right. I would've guessed Mediolanum (upon checking, it's effectively Milan now and so can't possibly be right, but the name's different enough I didn't connect the two).
I am not sure they can carry on doing this.
No it’s not. It’s extremely plausible that in a downturn people can lose their jobs.
You might be wrong on basis how this works to sectors. Certain sectors could be in stagflation where the country overall isn’t.
Tricky to get into the Black Sea, mind.
Hopefully the blockade of Odesa is now over, and Ukranian food exports can get going.
Con: 51.2 (-1.4 compared to GE19)
Lab: 33.6 (-4.0)
LD: 0.9 (-5.4)
Green: 10.5 (+8.3)
Ind 1.2 (+1.0)
Others 2.7 (+1.8)
* boundary changes since 2018 mean no comparison to last LE
Basically the 2019 dreams of decapitation aren't in range from LE numbers. Boris will have to move on or have a sizeable personal anti-Boris blow up.
Outside of London a mixed picture for them, they have gained seats in some areas like Colchester, Lincoln and Hartlepool but lost them in places like Sunderland and Harlow and failed to make gains in Swindon. They also lost Hull to the LDs.
The LDs making the biggest advance so far, especially in Remain areas like West Oxfordshire
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522525648740560896?t=ZIUrScSSDLi43jLvJ4dp7A&s=19
The last time I went in to the office, the first thing someone said to me on the first Teams call of the day was to complain about the level of background noise. WFH, I have a mute button for the TV. No such option for shouty colleagues in the office.
SLD tremendous
Greens tremendous
SLab good
SNP meh
SCon we want Ruth back!
Euromaidan Pressm @EuromaidanPress
Explosion followed by a fire occurred on a 🇷🇺project 11356P frigate near Zmiyinyi Island - Odesa media Dumskaya citing its sources
Dumskaya says that 🇷🇺 aircraft are now circling over that area in the Black Sea & ships left Crimea for a rescue operation.
https://dumskaya.net/news/u-zmeinogo-gorit-rossiyskiy-fregat-164010/
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1522525648740560896
Many pre-pandemic hospitality workers, for example, are now working as drivers or in warehouses, for considerably more than minimum wage.
And with inflation lower than in the Eurozone. That wasn't in the script.
If it was Johnson he would be all over it.
Labour are a metropolitan big city party and they will revel in Wandsworth and Westminster and neglect the towns and the provinces.
Rather like their time in office.
My guess is that the perception will be that Labour has done far better in these elections than they actually have.
[specifics deleted: I'll let him do it himself if he wants, a bit too close to personal ID on reflection]
Red Wall/marginals
= 3-4% swing to Lab from GE19
= 2% swing to Con from LE18
Safer Tory/ex-LD territory
= 9% swing to Lab from GE19 (due to big Con drops to LD/Grns really)
= 3% swing to Lab from LE18
Quote Tweet
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot
Musselburgh (E Lothian) 1st Prefs:
SNP: 34.3% (+1.2)
Lab: 31% (+8.1)
Con: 14.7% (-4.6)
Grn: 13.5% (+6.9)
LD: 4.2% (-1.9)
Alb: 1.1% (New)
SFP: 1.1% (New)
Elected: Lab x2, SNP, Grn (+1 Lab, +1 Grn, -1 SNP, -1 Con)
Turnout: 45% #BBSLE22 ^LL
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1522526906570223625
He vigorously opposed a small extension I wanted. I attended the Planning Committee Meeting.
All the Labour Councillors opposed my Loft extension.
I then listened in disbelief to the discussion on the next application -- a complete restructuring of a listed building on behalf of the owner, someone called Councillor Susan Brown 😉😉
Curiously, the same Labour councillors had no qualms about the complete restructuring of the listed building.
I have lived under a number of different Labour/LibDem/Plaid Cymru/NOC Councils -- I have no hesitation in saying Labour's hegemony on Oxford City Council caused the worst run Council I have direct experience of.
What likely to happen, next Tory leader/labour government will allow some bit of FoM to return to address these shortages.
London will produce at least 5-10 new Labour MPs in 2024.
Labour has good odds of picking up 4-10 seats in Scotland.
The Tories are going backwards in the Red Wall - and Labour will pick up at least 15 seats there.
The Lib Dems could pick up at least 10 seats in the South.
So that on my count, is the Tories down at least 35 seats before the cost of living crisis appears. So they are on a wafer thin majority as of right now.
These are not encouraging signs for them - and these estimates fall right on the edge of my range of reverse 2010 to Labour landslide
A Tory source argues that Labour doing well in London 'is not going to bode well' for them at next general election.
It 'will just reinforce the notion in working class people's eyes that they are now the party of the metropolitan elite, the party of Remainers'
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1522512352024969219
Presumably this is just some kind of spoofery, but the mad thing is that these days I can actually conceive of some kind of Tory idiot saying it.
https://twitter.com/EdinburghGreens/status/1522296475455303680
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1522482931859656704
So far no London commentators seem to have noticed this. The victories in Southampton and Cumberland seem as significant as Westminster Wandsworth and Barnet, if not more so?
"They will never vote Boris again"
"Johnson has killed the Tory brand"
"Partygate is a total game changer"
"The Red Wall has left Boris"
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Another terrible 2 years for Twitter.
These are the dying days of Johnsonism, Matthew Goodwin has completely lost the plot.
https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1522470125307322368?cxt=HHwWgICzgeeg86AqAAAA
Then he did the complete opposite
I will not support such a duplicitous leader
Under Burnham Labour would be sweeping the Board IMO
We are utterly fed up of being insulted and shouted at by these bastards every day. I am not the cause of the issues in the Red Wall.
And I watched him run two leadership campaigns, both of which were terrible.
LAB: 7 (=)
CON: 3 (-1)
LDM: 1 (+1)
Council Now: LAB 22, CON 9, LDM 2.
Labour HOLD.
Ah well, Labour only do well in London
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1522529221419036673
Labour are winning again.
LibDems are out of their abyss.
Greens establishing themselves as a force.
Tories doing well enough to keep big dog.
SNP holding ground
Corbynite loyalists have a few holes to whinge about.
It’s a sunny day.
Don't do it!
Also has a pic of Mr Johnson with a painting of HMtQ he has just made, about Primary 5 standard I reckon. What's he trying to hide on Google like he did with the cardboard buses??
After all It’s the London Borough of Cumberland, not the Red Wall!
God almighty the Tories are having an appalling day so far
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1522531265035083778
It was a common theme across the Deep South during my recent trip. There were oyster houses in New Orleans turning away multiple customers "because we one have two waiters, normally we have six". Hotels, cafes, bars, everywhere was begging for staff
Ditto in the EU during my recent visits, and I can see it again here in Turkey, and of course in the UK
Where have they all gone?!
Mask wearing on the DLR and tube definitely under 20%, possibly under 10%.
Chris Curtice has said the same. I trust his and Opinium's analysis.
PM said voters sent a "message" to ministers to concentrate on the issues that matter to them.
Also said he takes responsibility for the results.
No PM they sent a message to you to resign.
The SNP and the Tories have lost a seat each, with the Lib Dems and the Greens picking it up.
Deputy council leader Cammy Day tops the polls for Labour
https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1522531998551744512
See the GOP playbook, just slightly less blatantly unpleasant.
They then hope that enough of the middle classes in the shires hold their nose and stick with them for fear of Labour for economic reasons.
I hate to say that I think it’s an electoral strategy that they could squeeze a close victory out of.
Starmer needs to prepare himself for the onslaught that is coming. He also needs to put a lot of work into denting some of those attack lines.
The Knottingley ward, in Yvette Cooper's constituency, now has three Lib Dem cllrs, losing three Lab cllrs on the bounce.
A well-known local man who stood for Labour lost by 300 votes. The LD guy is not from round 'ere, but he's lived here for 20 years so maybe he's got his W Yorks citizenship.
I thought Labour might squeak it.
Edit - looks like it was the Tories wot swung it. They normally get about a quarter of the vote, got 8.5%. LD 50%, Lab 40%.