One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
F1: annoyingly, I have forgotten which car it was that did notably better in hotter conditions, but Miami is looking rather toasty.
Ferrari-engind cars all did well in Bahrain. Maybe worth looking at Bottas and Magnussen for top 6, and Sainz for a podium. (Leclerc for the win is probably too short).
Tunbridge Wells will be a big one later. If the Lib Dems can cause a loss of overall Tory control that will be headline worthy simply because of the iconic nature of the town.
Disgusted voters etc.
Also notable that the most prolific tweeter on Tunbridge Wells Lib Dem fortunes is also one of the best military commentators on Ukraine, Dr Mike Martin.
In discussions with @HYUFD, he predicted potential loss of TWs and I think he has local knowledge and implied there were some issues.
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
Curtice says just now on 5 live "Labour are down on 2018 outside London and that the narrative Labour are trying to push that they are doing better than under Corbyn isn't backed by the results so far"
Labour will be devastated, just devastated, that they have lost council seats to the Greens and the LibDems.
Truly their hopes of tactical voting at the next election to kick out the Tories is completely up in smoke.
No, what's happening is that voters are going for the anti-Tory party without much tribalsim, which is actually the definition of tactical voting. In the London borough, it's Labour. In Richmond, it's the LibDems. In Southampton, it's Labour. In Oxfordshire, it's the LibDems and Greens. Where the Tories are not a threat, as in Hull, you get LD/Green gains from Labour, but that's very unusual in Tory-led areas, since everyone is concentrating on winning Tory seats.
I may, may, have been using a modest amount of sarcasm
Nick Robinson roasting the pretty hopeless Chairman of the Conservative Party Oliver Dowden who laughingly described Johnson as 'the right man at the right time'
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
Ukrainian refugee update... they have semi-domesticated the fox that lives in our top paddock by feeding it paneer and tofu. It fucking loves tofu apparently. I fully expect to find it asleep on the couch before long.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Cumberland covers Carlisle, Workington, Copeland. Three Conservative MPs. The locale just elected a majority Labour council. While Sunderland may fit one narrative about Labour struggling in "the north", Cumberland has demonstrated the opposite.
The Red Wall is coming back in sufficient numbers for the Tories to lose their majority. Bye bye Boris
Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?
I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢
Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!
Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?
Nice to see so much yellow and green.
I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.
Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
He's 92 years old and was first elected (for Labour, funnily enough) in the Borough's first election in 1964. I believe he was on the old Twickenham Urban District Council for a term before that. He's not served continuously, but it's a pretty amazing stint.
Excellent to note that these youngsters are still making the cut ..
There is a 94-year-old Independent councillor up for re-election in Argyll & Bute.
In the world of rowing, there is a category "M" in the Masters.
This is for crews whose average age, at the end of the year is 89
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
So many politicians have been described as toast that I've quite gone off the stuff.
Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?
I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢
Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!
Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?
Nice to see so much yellow and green.
Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.
Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.
Tory faces unhappy at Sunderland count, and their youngish looking leader told Boris to go.
At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.
Slow burner UK politics at moment.
Outside London, it's not a good night for Labour.
The electionolgists explained to us last week if it was a holding on to 2018 levels just like this it would be good for them.
Is it merely holding on, or actually getting back up to?
Well, in 2018, Labour were either level-pegging with the Conservatives, or 1% behind, in terms of NEV. Overall, there's probably been a shift of about 1% from Conservative to Labour, compared to 2018. So, that's good by comparison to the General Election or the local elections of 2021, but worse than Labour achieved between 2012-14, and way below what they were achieving between 1993-97.
Professor Curtice seems spot on and is well respected for his views
Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
The truth is the Conservatives have suffered more or less the kind of losses we might have anticipated from the polls, but don't let anyone run away with the idea they haven't suffered a loss.
It has been better for them the further north we get, but of course, lots of Tory MPs have their seats in the south, and the party has lost ground quite heavily there.
For Labour, they have been wanting to argue these local election results demonstrate evidence of progress. And in London, that's true. It will be even more clearly a one-party Labour chiefdom.
But outside of London, as compared to 2018 when these seats were last contested, it looks like their seats are down slightly. And for a party that is trying to regain ground in the so-called Red Wall seats in the Midlands and north of England, this wasn't quite the progress they wanted.
There is still a very substantial legacy of the impact of Brexit on both the character of the Conservative and Labour supporters. The Conservatives is still much stronger in Leave areas, and therefore Labour is still struggling to make more progress there.
The Liberal Democrats have been the surprise of tonight. In terms of share of the vote, the progress is relatively modest, but they might just be hoping they are finally demonstrating some recovery from the 2015 general election.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
When the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do, sir?
Yes do you remember me telling you about 12 times that the comment was before Sunak chose to raise taxes? Consider this about the the 13th time that I've said it. 🙄
Yes inflation will continue to rise in the UK and around the entire planet.
Also other unexpected negative developments, China going back into lockdown is f***ing stupid and I wasn't expecting them to do that post-vaccines. Morons. Nor at the time was I expecting Putin to invade Ukraine.
But Brexit isn't fuelling any of that. Inflation is still rising in Europe too and they've got higher inflation than we do as it stands.
One factor that pundits tend to overlook is that people move home in an electorally significant way. What are the primary factors that align with voting intention in the national polls?
Labour and LibDem: younger, renting Conservative: older, home-owning
Some of the Red Wall seats have relatively cheap housing, and shiny new estates are going up - you can get a nice house in Hartlepool for a price that would get you a tiny flat in London. So older voters who no longer have to live near a job in Greater London are retiring to the North. Conversely, younger voters are migrating to where the jobs in their line are, which often means being in commuting distance of London.
In my area of Surrey, what is driving the shift from the Tories is not that lifelong Tories have suddenly seen the light. It's that people are arriving who work in Greater London and can't afford London rents. Conversely, Hartlepool isn't the sink of desperation that some journalists imagine - there are now a good chunk of fairly comfortable older home-owners there.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Do we have any actual numbers for April 2022 yet, as opposed to doomy shoutings? Serious Q,
March was 6.2% UK vs 7.4% Euro Area.
April for the Euro Area is 7.5%, including Energy at +38% down from +44%. Do we have a UK April CPI number yet?
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
I wonder how long she will survive the Jubilee? Her decline has been quite precipitous and I suspect there’s a lot we’re not being told.
These results aren't bad enough for Boris to be ejected by his party this year.
They point to the Conservatives losing their majority at the next election, but not a Labour victory.
When did Conservative MPs get to be so timid?
Theresa May had a disastrous 2017GE and yet Conservative MPs let her stagger on as PM for another two years. Boris Johnson now appears to be a clear electoral liability, but instead of deal with the issue Conservative MPs seem willing for him to prove the obvious by losing them the next GE.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Do we have any actual numbers for April 2022 yet, as opposed to doomy shoutings? Serious Q,
March was 6.2% UK vs 7.4% Euro Area.
April for the Euro Area is 7.5%, including Energy at +38% down from +44%.
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
You have to admit that is kind of strange thinking by the local voters though given that the LDs are more Remainy than Labour. I think you are right about the second half of your comment - about localism - but I don't see the logic of not voting Labour but instead voting LD if the reason is anti-EU.
I think in the end people vote for a whole load of complex reasons and trying to ascribe one particular reason to a set of results in these sorts of elections is probably a hopeless task.
One factor that pundits tend to overlook is that people move home in an electorally significant way. What are the primary factors that align with voting intention in the national polls?
Labour and LibDem: younger, renting Conservative: older, home-owning
Some of the Red Wall seats have relatively cheap housing, and shiny new estates are going up - you can get a nice house in Hartlepool for a price that would get you a tiny flat in London. So older voters who no longer have to live near a job in Greater London are retiring to the North. Conversely, younger voters are migrating to where the jobs in their line are, which often means being in commuting distance of London.
In my area of Surrey, what is driving the shift from the Tories is not that lifelong Tories have suddenly seen the light. It's that people are arriving who work in Greater London and can't afford London rents. Conversely, Hartlepool isn't the sink of desperation that some journalists imagine - there are now a good chunk of fairly comfortable older home-owners there.
Which is quite a succinct argument as to why the Tories need to address subsidised house price rises ...
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
Labour spinners have been telling gullible hacks with drink addled memories that the result from the last time these local election seats were up in 2018 was a “high watermark”, that they are starting from a “high point” this time round and thus can’t be expected to make significant gains.
What’s more, the front page headlines for the next day read “MPs call for inquest as Corbyn fails election test”, with anonymous Labour frontbenchers at the time queuing up to lambast the disappointing performance. One called it “amateur hour”, another said “At this stage of the parliament… the opposition should be doing much, much better. Our campaign was woeful” while another blamed the “inexperience and hubris” of Corbyn’s team. Guido wonders if Starmer was one of those frontbenchers anonymously briefing against the “dire” results?
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
I don't think my lack of consumption of baked beans in my childhood was due to my elite status. I was simply quite a fussy eater who point-blank refused to eat certain foods.
A quite incredible 'Red Wall' revival for Labour - a week after @Keir_Starmer came to campaign in Carlisle & Workington
A mauling for the Conservatives
BREAKING: Labour will have a majority on the new Cumberland Council
This is a remarkable result - all 3 MPs in the area are Conservatives (Carlisle, Copeland, Workington)
2 seats still to be declared
How strange, BJO said Labour was going backwards
A fourth MP, Penrith and Border, also has a large chunk in the new Cumberland. Copeland and Workington are traditionally Labour, and Carlisle traditionally a marginal. There is little love left for Boris in much of Cumbria.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Do we have any actual numbers for April 2022 yet, as opposed to doomy shoutings? Serious Q,
March was 6.2% UK vs 7.4% Euro Area.
April for the Euro Area is 7.5%, including Energy at +38% down from +44%.
Do we have a UK April CPI number yet?
7.0% so 0.5% below Euro Area.
As ever with economic indices, the devil might be in the detail. Are we sure the EU has the same basket as the CPI — RPI is 9 per cent, for instance.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Its not me you are ignoring but the facts. You are sadly deluded.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
So 2018 was bad then? As that’s the same as today
Reverse your logic.
If 2018 was bad today is slightly worse outside London.
If 2018 was good today was nearly as good.
I will let you decide.
BTW last night was better than 2018 in London. There you go it's not difficult to be truthful.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
...which was why we watched it for the first time in over 20 years. Thought it might be the last one.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Time for a regency.
Let us say we have a messy general election result in 2024 where no party can command a majority, are we really expecting a 98 year old Brenda to sort it out?
I am prepared to serve my country and serve as Regent.
Had to turn in for a few hours but sensational to see Westminster go to Labour .
Wandsworth and Barnet were always hopefuls . No one in Labour thought they’d get Westminster . After a slow start an encouraging night for Labour and there’s still Scotland and Wales. I expect them to be less forgiving of Johnson and the Tories are going to need their spin machine on overdrive as those results come in.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
5.5% would still be low unemployment compared to the past half a century.
Why some results are more interesting than they appear It's not always councils that are lost or gained which give you an insight into what's happening in the bigger picture.
Sky's election analysts have been looking at some of the results that might not catch your eye, but which could be important.
Wolverhampton - Labour hold
The Conservatives took two parliamentary constituencies in this area in 2019, but the party did not pick up any additional council seats overnight and Labour retain control of the council.
Sky News analysts have noted that there was also no change in vote share since 2018 (35%). This suggests Tory support has fallen back since the general election, which would indicate the party could lose both Westminster constituencies if this performance were replicated at a general election.
Dudley - Conservative hold
Dudley is an important indicator of how far the Conservatives were able to defend gains made in recent years. It is a borough that has been swinging to the Conservatives for some time, and the party retained control of the council overnight.
However, while last year the Tories took 57% of the vote and 23 of the 26 seats on offer, it has lost two of the 14 seats it was defending from 2018 to Labour. Could this be a sign Labour is arresting the "red wall" decline?
Labour will finish someway under that, the Tories probably a bit over, libdems definitely some way over that, greens over that too.
Conclusion, what that forecaster thought would go to labour quite a bit is shared among other three as well as underestimate libdems hurting Tories.
Other than no cigar, in the right ball park.
Okay let’s sort this out.
For these seat total predictions are we playing all 200 councils including Wales and Scotland? I wasn’t doing that, I had it just as England, the nations split out separately in their own game.
I’m not fussed either way But There must be clear rules here, no more of this moving goal posts or gerrymandering the size of the thingy.
Seems glancing at things that Lab are the one in trouble - they surely must be making much bigger strides outside London to have any chance of overturning a 80 seat majority?
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
I don't think my lack of consumption of baked beans in my childhood was due to my elite status. I was simply quite a fussy eater who point-blank refused to eat certain foods.
Fair enough. I was fussy too - baked beans were the only vegetable I would eat. (Well, spaghetti hoops too but apparently that was not quite the full veg.)
BJO delighted when his supposed party for life has few bad results in. Fake Labour
Personal insults will not make the results outside London any better.
See what Sir John Curtice said.
So do you agree that 2018 was bad or not because St Jeremy was in charge?
What are you talking about?
Curtice just said Labour outside London are doing worse than 2018 under Corbyn.
Wait for the predicted vote share later today and then explain why it doesn't match the Polls
If Corbyn were leader BJO would be celebrating these results today. The desperation of the left to venerate the bearded one is rather touching.
Nah the desperation of Centrists to pretend all his results were a disaster is pathetic.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
Labour spinners have been telling gullible hacks with drink addled memories that the result from the last time these local election seats were up in 2018 was a “high watermark”, that they are starting from a “high point” this time round and thus can’t be expected to make significant gains.
What’s more, the front page headlines for the next day read “MPs call for inquest as Corbyn fails election test”, with anonymous Labour frontbenchers at the time queuing up to lambast the disappointing performance. One called it “amateur hour”, another said “At this stage of the parliament… the opposition should be doing much, much better. Our campaign was woeful” while another blamed the “inexperience and hubris” of Corbyn’s team. Guido wonders if Starmer was one of those frontbenchers anonymously briefing against the “dire” results?
I thought only posters who had been lobotomised linked to Guido. You've gone one step further
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
5.5% would still be low unemployment compared to the past half a century.
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
You have to admit that is kind of strange thinking by the local voters though given that the LDs are more Remainy than Labour. I think you are right about the second half of your comment - about localism - but I don't see the logic of not voting Labour but instead voting LD if the reason is anti-EU.
I think in the end people vote for a whole load of complex reasons and trying to ascribe one particular reason to a set of results in these sorts of elections is probably a hopeless task.
Oh yeah, you're right, totally goes against what the LDs stand for on a national level. That pro-EU, internationalist lifeblood that runs through their veins.
I think the LDs are being very wily. I'm extrapolating massively, obviously, but in my ward, Knottingley in the Wakefield Council area, since the referendum the three Labour cllrs we've had since since year dot have gone to two LD and one Labour - and it could well be three LDs by the end of today.
That's helped by a local cynicism about the Labour-run Council being viewed as ignoring us, admittedly.
But I think that the LDs are deliberately playing down what they stand for in their DNA in a bid to win in Leave areas that will just not go Tory, on hyperlocal, dare I say parochial, policies. And it seems to be working in places.
If Wales and Scotland swing strongly to Labour - a landslide is surely on the cards as the economic situation deteriorates.
Wales will be interesting because leave has been so strong there, and leave was definitely in play in England overnight. Will labour after finding it hard work in leave voting areas of England find that extend to become an Albion thing?
I note that Lib Dems now have control of heavily Leave Kingston upon Hull.
That Metropolitan Elite gets everywhere nowadays.
I think that those Leave areas which just cannot bring themselves to vote Tory, but still see Labour as too Remainy, are going LD. If the yellows are campaigning in these places like they are on my (68% Leave) patch, it will be on hyperlocal issues. Opposing new housing, complaining about poor GPs/NHS services, again on my patch specifically, opposition to the West Yorks Combined Authority ('remote added layer of bureaucracy sucking up your taxes'), that kind of thing.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
You have to admit that is kind of strange thinking by the local voters though given that the LDs are more Remainy than Labour. I think you are right about the second half of your comment - about localism - but I don't see the logic of not voting Labour but instead voting LD if the reason is anti-EU.
I think in the end people vote for a whole load of complex reasons and trying to ascribe one particular reason to a set of results in these sorts of elections is probably a hopeless task.
Depends how much of the 2016 Leave vote was a worked out wish to leave the EU, and how much it was a way of signalling pissed-offness.
Leave + Lib Dem makes no sense at all in the first case, but plenty in the second, particularly if you add a dash of localism/parochialism.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
If unemployment climbs to 5.5 as predicted, will you let us use the word stagflation?
Thankfully, there’s currently a labour shortage.
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
A few years ago the early results from the north were ok for the tories and people went to bed complacent, but the southern results were horrendous. Reading through will be fun.
Mr. JohnL, er, why would the FSA scrap a rule about radioactivity in food? There's a reason plutonium isn't a popular sandwich filling... and it's not just the price.
You have no faith in the power of the free market. If people don't like plutonium sandwiches they won't buy plutonium sandwiches, and the market will abolish them. Rules are for sclerotic lefties.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Not a good early night from JC. He made the mistake (as did Mike) of jumping the gun. Now correcting.
If it hadn't been for my first wife I likely would never have bought a tin of baked beans in my life too, because I'd not eaten them up to that point, but had to adjust as they were such a staple in her diet.
What is a baked bean? They never mention them in my ready meals...
The bean used in baked beans is haricot beans. I'm not sure if they're literally baked, or simply cooked in another way, generally in a smooth tomato sauce. Most typically eaten with a baked potato - one of the meals that must have the highest satisfaction:effort ratio.
Surely most commonly eaten on toast. The important topics being covered this morning.
Could this be the truest distinguishing feature of the elite: those who have never eaten baked beans?
Er - no.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
Time for a regency.
Let us say we have a messy general election result in 2024 where no party can command a majority, are we really expecting a 98 year old Brenda to sort it out?
I am prepared to serve my country and serve as Regent.
Ahead of you in the unDictator stakes. Even got half a cabinet signed up.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Do we have any actual numbers for April 2022 yet, as opposed to doomy shoutings? Serious Q,
March was 6.2% UK vs 7.4% Euro Area.
April for the Euro Area is 7.5%, including Energy at +38% down from +44%.
Do we have a UK April CPI number yet?
7.0% so 0.5% below Euro Area.
That's the proof then - Brexit obviously fuelling inflation in the Euro Area.
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
We really hope she enjoys at least 2 more years as in 2 years time (a week on Monday), she should send us a diamond wedding congratulation card
We really would like it to be the Queen as we have followed her career ever since she was a young princess !!!! though not really as royalists
Sadly, it does look like London Bridge is only a year or two away.
She’s not committed to a single future event, everything will be decided on the day. Which means that Charles can’t commit to much either, in case he needs to deputise for his mother.
Odds on that she has done her last Christmas message.
The prediction in some of the extrapolations that Labour would have a net loss of seats in England are proving wrong, as there's a significant gain. I'm not sure the outstanding results are going to change that. Do we have a final score from Southampton? Assuming Labour moves into 2nd in Scotland and does OK in Wales, it's a solid national picture, though only spectacular in London and Southamption (we shall see about Worthing).
Outside of London Labour are currently in a small net loss of seats in England position.
That is spot on with the extrapolations I saw
London Gains also spot on with those extrapolations.
Did you write the earlier "a good night for the Tories, a bad one for Labour" BBC headline?
No mate.
Nor did I force Sir John Curtice to say "the results in the rest of England outside London were down on Corbyn in 2018 despite the narrative Labour are trying to push"
Curtice was wrong and so are you.
I think I will stick with Sir John and ignore you
Sir John also pointed out that Labour's policies in 2019 were broadly popular, with Corbyn (and Brexit) the main reasons why they did so badly.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
Mr. Rabbit, on Mercedes, I read they have numerous ideas about improving their car.
Which is a shame, as their dominance was tedious and I'm quite enjoying the Ferrari-Red Bull battle.
They have a new front wing in Miami, and there are rumours of a new floor in Barcelona. I stand by my prediction that they will be winning races by the summer.
I'm not a monarchist but I do find talk of her death rather distasteful.
However, if she does die in the next two years I think Boris Johnson (if still PM) will do well out of it. I know that's an awful thing to say but as we saw with Ukraine, he's good when sentiment is more important than details.
Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
I find nothing undemocratic about pacts. Parties are not obligated to stand candidates and provide a wider choice for the electorate.
Its disappointing to have less choice but it's not undemocratic.
One thing the Govt has yet to address or admit is the degree to which Brexit is fuelling UK inflation. Business leaders say it’s the thing “no one talks about” esp firms who want to keep Govt contracts https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1522477132500381696
Eurozone inflation 7.5% UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Our inflation is projected to be 10%.
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
The Roaring Twenties and Depression of the Thirties were really American phenomena. The Twenties were grim in Britain, particularly for heavy industry. From 1933 Britain was economically booming.
Where? The hunger marches were during the mid-1930s.
West London vacuum cleaner factories versus Northern heavy industry.
Comments
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cabinet-ready-to-rally-around-boris-johnson-after-local-election-results-wrcr3g9s2
Lab in Sunderland in 2018: 47%
... in 2019: 32.8%
... in 2021: 39.2%*
... in 2022: 44.6%
*The same day as Hartlepool.
So err, forwards
UK inflation 7.0%
Is the degree that Brexit is fuelling UK inflation -0.5% Scott?
Do you remember when you said this was the roaring twenties and the economic situation was very healthy.
I just wonder if your economic predictions are very reliable.
Overall however losing only 124 councillors so far is better than some predictions certainly
But it needed lots of tactical voting?
The Red Wall is coming back in sufficient numbers for the Tories to lose their majority. Bye bye Boris
This is for crews whose average age, at the end of the year is 89
She also quoted one Shadow Cabinet Minister as saying they're making progress but they're still suffering from 'Long Corbyn'
Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
The truth is the Conservatives have suffered more or less the kind of losses we might have anticipated from the polls, but don't let anyone run away with the idea they haven't suffered a loss.
It has been better for them the further north we get, but of course, lots of Tory MPs have their seats in the south, and the party has lost ground quite heavily there.
For Labour, they have been wanting to argue these local election results demonstrate evidence of progress. And in London, that's true. It will be even more clearly a one-party Labour chiefdom.
But outside of London, as compared to 2018 when these seats were last contested, it looks like their seats are down slightly. And for a party that is trying to regain ground in the so-called Red Wall seats in the Midlands and north of England, this wasn't quite the progress they wanted.
There is still a very substantial legacy of the impact of Brexit on both the character of the Conservative and Labour supporters. The Conservatives is still much stronger in Leave areas, and therefore Labour is still struggling to make more progress there.
The Liberal Democrats have been the surprise of tonight. In terms of share of the vote, the progress is relatively modest, but they might just be hoping they are finally demonstrating some recovery from the 2015 general election.
Which if you think about it, is very much a catalogue of perceived Leaver concerns in the Red Wall, just shrunk down to a local level - 'we don't want incomers, who put pressure on services, we don't want remote bureaucrats'.
That's my take on the LD success in these places.
Yes do you remember me telling you about 12 times that the comment was before Sunak chose to raise taxes? Consider this about the the 13th time that I've said it. 🙄
Yes inflation will continue to rise in the UK and around the entire planet.
Also other unexpected negative developments, China going back into lockdown is f***ing stupid and I wasn't expecting them to do that post-vaccines. Morons. Nor at the time was I expecting Putin to invade Ukraine.
But Brexit isn't fuelling any of that. Inflation is still rising in Europe too and they've got higher inflation than we do as it stands.
Labour and LibDem: younger, renting
Conservative: older, home-owning
Some of the Red Wall seats have relatively cheap housing, and shiny new estates are going up - you can get a nice house in Hartlepool for a price that would get you a tiny flat in London. So older voters who no longer have to live near a job in Greater London are retiring to the North. Conversely, younger voters are migrating to where the jobs in their line are, which often means being in commuting distance of London.
In my area of Surrey, what is driving the shift from the Tories is not that lifelong Tories have suddenly seen the light. It's that people are arriving who work in Greater London and can't afford London rents. Conversely, Hartlepool isn't the sink of desperation that some journalists imagine - there are now a good chunk of fairly comfortable older home-owners there.
They were a staple in my early life and still feature in our diet about once a week. A relatively healthy processed food option compared to most, I believe.
SKS over 2 LEs 2021 and 2022 is well down on the equivalent 2017 and 2018 results but can't admit it because everything about Corbyn has to be portrayed as a disaster.
March was 6.2% UK vs 7.4% Euro Area.
April for the Euro Area is 7.5%, including Energy at +38% down from +44%.
Do we have a UK April CPI number yet?
Theresa May had a disastrous 2017GE and yet Conservative MPs let her stagger on as PM for another two years. Boris Johnson now appears to be a clear electoral liability, but instead of deal with the issue Conservative MPs seem willing for him to prove the obvious by losing them the next GE.
I think in the end people vote for a whole load of complex reasons and trying to ascribe one particular reason to a set of results in these sorts of elections is probably a hopeless task.
https://order-order.com/2022/05/05/formerly-dire-2018-result-now-being-spun-as-high-watermark-by-labour-hq/
Labour spinners have been telling gullible hacks with drink addled memories that the result from the last time these local election seats were up in 2018 was a “high watermark”, that they are starting from a “high point” this time round and thus can’t be expected to make significant gains.
What’s more, the front page headlines for the next day read “MPs call for inquest as Corbyn fails election test”, with anonymous Labour frontbenchers at the time queuing up to lambast the disappointing performance. One called it “amateur hour”, another said “At this stage of the parliament… the opposition should be doing much, much better. Our campaign was woeful” while another blamed the “inexperience and hubris” of Corbyn’s team. Guido wonders if Starmer was one of those frontbenchers anonymously briefing against the “dire” results?
My kids wouldn't get the reference though, they don't show it anymore.
How are you Sir
As Walpole nearly said, They are ringing their inflatables now, soon they will be wringing their inflations.
If 2018 was bad today is slightly worse outside London.
If 2018 was good today was nearly as good.
I will let you decide.
BTW last night was better than 2018 in London. There you go it's not difficult to be truthful.
Let us say we have a messy general election result in 2024 where no party can command a majority, are we really expecting a 98 year old Brenda to sort it out?
I am prepared to serve my country and serve as Regent.
Wandsworth and Barnet were always hopefuls . No one in Labour thought they’d get Westminster . After a slow start an encouraging night for Labour and there’s still Scotland and Wales. I expect them to be less forgiving of Johnson and the Tories are going to need their spin machine on overdrive as those results come in.
Why some results are more interesting than they appear
It's not always councils that are lost or gained which give you an insight into what's happening in the bigger picture.
Sky's election analysts have been looking at some of the results that might not catch your eye, but which could be important.
Wolverhampton - Labour hold
The Conservatives took two parliamentary constituencies in this area in 2019, but the party did not pick up any additional council seats overnight and Labour retain control of the council.
Sky News analysts have noted that there was also no change in vote share since 2018 (35%). This suggests Tory support has fallen back since the general election, which would indicate the party could lose both Westminster constituencies if this performance were replicated at a general election.
Dudley - Conservative hold
Dudley is an important indicator of how far the Conservatives were able to defend gains made in recent years. It is a borough that has been swinging to the Conservatives for some time, and the party retained control of the council overnight.
However, while last year the Tories took 57% of the vote and 23 of the 26 seats on offer, it has lost two of the 14 seats it was defending from 2018 to Labour. Could this be a sign Labour is arresting the "red wall" decline?
For these seat total predictions are we playing all 200 councils including Wales and Scotland? I wasn’t doing that, I had it just as England, the nations split out separately in their own game.
I’m not fussed either way But There must be clear rules here, no more of this moving goal posts or gerrymandering the size of the thingy.
Seems glancing at things that Lab are the one in trouble - they surely must be making much bigger strides outside London to have any chance of overturning a 80 seat majority?
Which is a shame, as their dominance was tedious and I'm quite enjoying the Ferrari-Red Bull battle.
You can't survive with this red wall strategy if you are losing your core.
I think the LDs are being very wily. I'm extrapolating massively, obviously, but in my ward, Knottingley in the Wakefield Council area, since the referendum the three Labour cllrs we've had since since year dot have gone to two LD and one Labour - and it could well be three LDs by the end of today.
That's helped by a local cynicism about the Labour-run Council being viewed as ignoring us, admittedly.
But I think that the LDs are deliberately playing down what they stand for in their DNA in a bid to win in Leave areas that will just not go Tory, on hyperlocal, dare I say parochial, policies. And it seems to be working in places.
Leave + Lib Dem makes no sense at all in the first case, but plenty in the second, particularly if you add a dash of localism/parochialism.
https://youtu.be/8VWP8Nz0axo
A glut of early retirements during the pandemic, and the ending of FoM with the EU, has seen vacancies at record rates, adverts offering sign-on bonuses, and 20% wage premiums on a lot of low-paid work.
The unemployment forecast was the one item that just didn’t look right in the forecast. The inflation is real though, and the China Covid situation is likely to squeeze supply chains for the next year at least.
Good in small quantities, but with high sugar and starch.
Native American roots, put in a tin by a Mr Heinz around 1860. Taken to Antarctica by Scott. Contributes to your 5 a day.
Good with a Full English, but keep separate from the hegg. Available in a tin with the most unlike-a-sausage sausage I have ever seen.
We really would like it to be the Queen as we have followed her career ever since she was a young princess !!!! though not really as royalists
Richard will believe him on that one but not the fact that Corbyn did better in 2018 outside London than SKS did yesterday.
Lab 40% (nc)
Con 34% (-1)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 4% (nc)
1,635 questioned Wed & Thu. Changes with 27-28 April.
Details at technetracker.co.uk
BJO?
However, if she does die in the next two years I think Boris Johnson (if still PM) will do well out of it. I know that's an awful thing to say but as we saw with Ukraine, he's good when sentiment is more important than details.
Its disappointing to have less choice but it's not undemocratic.