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The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

It is becoming a really bad night for the Tories losing high profile Councils such as Westminster and Wandsworth. LDs biggest seat gainer currently https://t.co/Fj4ojBNZ3t

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Go soak yer head.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Yep, the anti-Tory Party - which was such a powerful force in the 1990s and 2000s - is getting its mojo back.

    Cumberland is an extraordinary result. A tactical voting massacre for the Tories.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967

    Yep, the anti-Tory Party - which was such a powerful force in the 1990s and 2000s - is getting its mojo back.

    Cumberland is an extraordinary result. A tactical voting massacre for the Tories.

    Boris discovers his very own Cumberland Gap.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    ydoethur said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    As SeanT’s ex said…
    Oh. Couple of filthy double entendres and it’s off to work is it?

    You havn’t missed anything 🥱
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464

    ydoethur said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    As SeanT’s ex said…
    Oh. Couple of filthy double entendres and it’s off to work is it?

    You havn’t missed anything 🥱
    She asked for an example of a double entrendre, so he gave her one...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    As SeanT’s ex said…
    Oh. Couple of filthy double entendres and it’s off to work is it?

    You havn’t missed anything 🥱
    She asked for an example of a double entrendre, so he gave her one...
    That one came up more than once last week.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    The revival of the anti-Tory party is the biggest story, so far. But another biggie is that Boris Johnson’s own seat is very clearly in play at the next GE. That could end up mattering a hell of a lot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849
    FPT Mr. Ed, there has been a lot of faction-fighting in Enfield Labour.

    Looking at the results in detail, the Conservatives performed extremely well in Southgate (which is surprising, given that it's the sort of affluent Remain constituency that has shifted left) and the nicer parts of Enfield North.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Tonight’s results are not a great Blair-style recovery for the Labour Party. But they do show Labour doing as well in the Red Wall as they did when they last held the Red Wall — and that should worry Conservatives.

    From @bbcone’s election programme tonight with @thehuwedwards. https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1522404426299944960/video/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    In a nutshell. From a Conservative:

    ‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’

    -John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1522456142022164480
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    edited May 6
    Scott_xP said:

    In a nutshell. From a Conservative:

    ‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’

    -John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1522456142022164480

    ‘Any longer?’ What took them so long?

    By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Waking up to catastrophic results for the party in London. Wandsworth & Westminster were flagship councils. We held them during the Blair honeymoon. We held them during austerity. We held them under Theresa May. Losing them should be a wake up call for the Conservative Party
    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1522449549893193729
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

    2018 is a considerable turnaround on later years surely?

    Any projection on national vote share yet?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,464

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,015
    Barnet! Wandsworth! Westminster! 🎉🎉🎉🌹🌹🌹
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Side personal notes to Conservative losses in London: two of Boris Johnson's key former aides, Simon Milton and Eddie Lister, led Westminster and Wandsworth councils respectively. Sadiq Khan has lived in Wandsworth all his life - Tories have controlled it since he was 7 years old
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1522458167883579392
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

    Tory faces unhappy at Sunderland count, and their youngish looking leader told Boris to go.

    At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.

    Slow burner UK politics at moment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Tory party chairman Oliver Dowden says - twice - that mid term losses are expected “when we’ve been in power for 12 years”.

    They have of course, but Boris Johnson always at pains to draw the line when he became leader.

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1522458552278867968
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Jonathan said:

    The silver lining for the Conservatives is that the economy and NHS are in robust health and will inevitably turn around their polling position. That feel good factor is spreading across the land. The universal respect for their leadership will be the catalyst.

    And their cheerleading press...

    Now voting in #LocalElections2022 has closed, the Mail finally lays off Starmer and admits life is crap under Johnson. https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1522340538741108737/photo/1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849
    edited May 6
    Scott_xP said:

    Waking up to catastrophic results for the party in London. Wandsworth & Westminster were flagship councils. We held them during the Blair honeymoon. We held them during austerity. We held them under Theresa May. Losing them should be a wake up call for the Conservative Party
    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1522449549893193729

    OTOH, the Conservatives had 11 councils nationwide, other than Wandsworth and Westminster, at the height of the Blair honeymoon. Labour were out of sight in authorities like Thurrock, Basildon, Dudley, Nuneaton, Bolton, Stoke at that time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    The silver lining for the Conservatives is that the economy and NHS are in robust health and will inevitably turn around their polling position. That feel good factor is spreading across the land. The universal respect for their leadership will be the catalyst.

    And their cheerleading press...

    Now voting in #LocalElections2022 has closed, the Mail finally lays off Starmer and admits life is crap under Johnson. https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1522340538741108737/photo/1
    Even the Daily Mail can’t ignore Brexflation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

    Tory faces unhappy at Sunderland count, and their youngish looking leader told Boris to go.

    At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.

    Slow burner UK politics at moment.
    Outside London, it's not a good night for Labour.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Oliver Dowden says Boris Johnson is a "change maker". Well, he's certainly helped change Wandsworth and Westminster from Tory to Labour, amirite?

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-wins-wandsworth-conservatives_uk_6274539ce4b046ad0d79d1e5
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

    Tory faces unhappy at Sunderland count, and their youngish looking leader told Boris to go.

    At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.

    Slow burner UK politics at moment.
    Outside London, it's not a good night for Labour.
    It’s a good night for the anti-Tory party. Anyone talking about a usual mid-term election result for an incumbent government has not been paying attention for the last seven years. Post-Brexit, post-lockdown and at the start (yes, the start) of the cost of living squeeze, there is no usual mid-term.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    Scott_xP said:

    Oliver Dowden says Boris Johnson is a "change maker". Well, he's certainly helped change Wandsworth and Westminster from Tory to Labour, amirite?

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-wins-wandsworth-conservatives_uk_6274539ce4b046ad0d79d1e5

    It was a reference to his legendary ability to create babies? Not only do they need changing, but he keeps changing the ladies that mother them...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
    Is that the one originally elected in 1889?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    Off-topic (and why not?)

    The excellent British History Podcast has a royal family tree from the heptarchy to modern times. It turns out it was all Woden's fault...

    https://www.thebritishhistorypodcast.com/familytree.png
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In a nutshell. From a Conservative:

    ‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’

    -John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1522456142022164480

    ‘Any longer?’ What took them so long?

    By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
    Not sure that’s entirely fair to Rees. He had the statue issue forced on him. He was the one left to deal with the consequences of what happened.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In a nutshell. From a Conservative:

    ‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’

    -John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1522456142022164480

    ‘Any longer?’ What took them so long?

    By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
    Not sure that’s entirely fair to Rees. He had the statue issue forced on him. He was the one left to deal with the consequences of what happened.

    He really didn't. He'd been arguing with the Merchant Venturers about it for literally years when it got vandalised.

    And he's still done nothing about Bristol's schools.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    Labour has halted its Red Wall slide. Whether that’s just a line in the sand or the start of a slow turnaround of the tanker remains to be seen.

    Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.

    Tory faces unhappy at Sunderland count, and their youngish looking leader told Boris to go.

    At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.

    Slow burner UK politics at moment.
    Outside London, it's not a good night for Labour.
    The electionolgists explained to us last week if it was a holding on to 2018 levels just like this it would be good for them.

    Is it merely holding on, or actually getting back up to?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Triple whammy in London as Barnet full results are in:

    Labour gain 12 seats from Tories with 41 and Cons on 22 - the lowest seat tally ever for the Tories on Barnet

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1522461037060046849
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637
    edited May 6
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
    He's 92 years old and was first elected (for Labour, funnily enough) in the Borough's first election in 1964. I believe he was on the old Twickenham Urban District Council for a term before that. He's not served continuously, but it's a pretty amazing stint.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Another prediction won. London pubman was wrong yet again.

    Wandsworth welcome to Labour. And well done on making history.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Another prediction won. London pubman was wrong yet again.

    Wandsworth welcome to Labour. And well done on making history.

    Enjoy your higher rates. 🙂
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,061
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
    This is most unfair on the Conservative voters in Richmond. They ought to be better represented than by a single councillor. Time to get rid of our unfair voting system, I think, and replace it with a voting system that ensures that the views of the electorate are properly represented.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,164
    TimS said:

    Woke up, looked at BBC news website, and got the message it had been a bad night for Labour and a reassuring one for the Tories.

    Come here and see it’s actually been pretty bad for the Tories and good for Labour.

    Then look at the actual results and wonder why the headline wasn’t “fantastic night for the Liberal Democrats”.

    It was on PB — two threads ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    ClippP said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
    This is most unfair on the Conservative voters in Richmond. They ought to be better represented than by a single councillor. Time to get rid of our unfair voting system, I think, and replace it with a voting system that ensures that the views of the electorate are properly represented.
    The V sign would appear to represent the views of most voters right now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Scott_xP said:

    Triple whammy in London as Barnet full results are in:

    Labour gain 12 seats from Tories with 41 and Cons on 22 - the lowest seat tally ever for the Tories on Barnet

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1522461037060046849

    13 swapround in Westminster.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    TimS said:

    Woke up, looked at BBC news website, and got the message it had been a bad night for Labour and a reassuring one for the Tories.

    No you didn't.

    BBC Headline is:

    LABOUR TAKES KEY LONDON COUNCILS BUT MODEST GAINS ELSEWHERE

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    Time for London to declare UDI. Westminster and Wandsworth alone produce more wealth than the entire Red Wall (I'd imagine).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Another prediction won. London pubman was wrong yet again.

    Wandsworth welcome to Labour. And well done on making history.

    Enjoy your higher rates. 🙂
    Not the case in my area. Tory run Woking council has the 3rd biggest debt in the United Kingdom with council tax bills to reflect it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Bizarre reply from Wimbledon’s Tory MP @S_Hammond when asked about Boris Johnson’s future: ‘I think he has to prove his integrity to the country.’

    Johnson has proved again and again and again a total lack of integrity in his private, political and professional lives

    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1522451821192794112
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Tories are done in London. So we can look for gains there.

    Interested to see how Labour do in Scotland and Wales and the Sourh. Then we can get an idea of Keir’s new coalition.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    edited May 6
    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    edited May 6
    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    He'll be even happier that it's not so bad the Tories will finally be forced to grow a backbone and ditch the lying criminal.

    It's bad news for the country, but great for Labour.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 190
    edited May 6
    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,878

    Tories are done in London. So we can look for gains there.

    Interested to see how Labour do in Scotland and Wales and the Sourh. Then we can get an idea of Keir’s new coalition.

    Gains in London is probably only worth 5 MPs, maybe 10 at a massive push (although that could include Bozo).
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Tories are done in London. So we can look for gains there.

    Interested to see how Labour do in Scotland and Wales and the Sourh. Then we can get an idea of Keir’s new coalition.

    Gains in London is probably only worth 5 MPs, maybe 10 at a massive push (although that could include Bozo).
    7 I think was my prediction some time back.

    Every little helps when you’re trying to stop the SNP
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    I don't think the way it's gone so far will bring about 54 letters.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,155
    Flanner said:

    West Oxfordshire - mostly a classic Tory shire seat - may well be a bellwether for today's declarations.

    The District is currently identical to the Witney Parliamentary constituency - long one of the Tories' safest. A third of its 49 seats are voted for in three of every four years, so rapid change is virtually impossible.

    In 2014, of the 17 seats counted last night, the Tories held all but two. Last night they lost all but four, losing 7 this year and a few in 2018. Partly because of demographic change, with the "deference" agricultural vote of 20 years ago now almost totally dead. Partly because of a re-energised LibDem party, and a few pragmatic decisions about campaigning priorities by all three anti-Tory parties. But mostly sheer fury at Johnson's lies, the incumbent Tory MP's indolence (and Johnson-like mendacity over Brexit) and a string of Tory failures.

    The scale of anti-Tory anger in what used to be a patch of rural tranquillity is astonishing. It's potty to ignore it, or dismiss it as elderly Nimbyism.

    That district has always flirted with the LDs and Greens on occasions (proximity to Ox W & Abingdon) and in 2019 saw a big swing away from the blues so not a massive surprise - also strong REMAIN country despite the 'Shire feel to the place
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    Strong results for Labour in London, not so sure about elsewhere yet.

    The Greens make progress in places like Exeter and Oxford. Will be interesting to see who Labour pick as the candidate to replace Bradshaw in Exeter. Could be a seat to watch at the next GE.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,164
    edited May 6
    algarkirk said:

    I don't think the way it's gone so far will bring about 54 letters.

    The question for MPs might not be will the government win in 2024? but will I hold my own seat?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Woke up, looked at BBC news website, and got the message it had been a bad night for Labour and a reassuring one for the Tories.

    No you didn't.

    BBC Headline is:

    LABOUR TAKES KEY LONDON COUNCILS BUT MODEST GAINS ELSEWHERE

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
    Exactly. In English electoral reporting terms that means “Labour will be a bit disappointed”. Dig into the write ups and all the “Boris safe for now” vibes tell me they did a successful job of expectation management.

    It seems any Labour performance has to be measured against Blair’s council and then GE landslide, which is a rather tricky and unnecessary KPI.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,582

    Barnet! Wandsworth! Westminster! 🎉🎉🎉🌹🌹🌹

    I wonder what will happen to my council tax.
    During the last few years - which were not easy - the council kept their impost flat while Sadiq Khan maxed out the increase he was allowed (high single digits each year IIRC)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Flanner said:

    West Oxfordshire - mostly a classic Tory shire seat - may well be a bellwether for today's declarations.

    The District is currently identical to the Witney Parliamentary constituency - long one of the Tories' safest. A third of its 49 seats are voted for in three of every four years, so rapid change is virtually impossible.

    In 2014, of the 17 seats counted last night, the Tories held all but two. Last night they lost all but four, losing 7 this year and a few in 2018. Partly because of demographic change, with the "deference" agricultural vote of 20 years ago now almost totally dead. Partly because of a re-energised LibDem party, and a few pragmatic decisions about campaigning priorities by all three anti-Tory parties. But mostly sheer fury at Johnson's lies, the incumbent Tory MP's indolence (and Johnson-like mendacity over Brexit) and a string of Tory failures.

    The scale of anti-Tory anger in what used to be a patch of rural tranquillity is astonishing. It's potty to ignore it, or dismiss it as elderly Nimbyism.

    That district has always flirted with the LDs and Greens on occasions (proximity to Ox W & Abingdon) and in 2019 saw a big swing away from the blues so not a massive surprise - also strong REMAIN country despite the 'Shire feel to the place
    If this is the attitude to long life Tory voters the Tory Party is going to lose just like Labour did
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466

    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good

    Very true. But also beware of calling leave voters racists in the ex red wall.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good

    Very true. But also beware of calling leave voters racists in the ex red wall.
    They aren’t racist in general. Never believed that.

    I do think it was weird to vote Tory after a decade of austerity but then I think Corbyn did that not Johnson.

    They got what they wanted, Labour don’t ignore them anymore
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    Given the good showing for Lib Dems in England and the fact the trend is your friend, I expect Alliance to do very well in NI and it would be incredible if they could displace the DUP and move into second place.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775

    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good

    Very true. But also beware of calling leave voters racists in the ex red wall.
    They are not racist, they are just ill-informed and manipulated by people like the disingenuous fat fornicator in number 10.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    The Met Office did well to use the Iceland volcano crisis to secure funding for a pollution observations plane, in part to be ready to observe future volcanic ash clouds to determine where the safe limit for passenger flights would be.

    Funding stopped now. Might be a sign of things to come with government spending (or the current Met Office management might not be as persuasive).

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/06/pollutionwatch-final-flight-met-office-aerial-survey-plane
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You can still vote Lib Dem or Labour they just won’t campaign
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,719
    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    Afetr 12 years of Tory Rule and 8 months of terrible press for the Government these are not great results for Labour and are very much in line with the By-Elections of the past year.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You can still vote Lib Dem or Labour they just won’t campaign
    Not what happened in the Lib Dem/Green pact here in 2019. The Green candidates stood down.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775

    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    Afetr 12 years of Tory Rule and 8 months of terrible press for the Government these are not great results for Labour and are very much in line with the By-Elections of the past year.

    So let's flip it, how do you think the Tories have done? Is Liar/Shagger/DFF taking you forwards?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    Afetr 12 years of Tory Rule and 8 months of terrible press for the Government these are not great results for Labour and are very much in line with the By-Elections of the past year.

    ROFL first victory in elections in years and this is three years after losing in a landslide and people asking when the Labour Party would end.

    A year after Starmee being finished.

    A year after people asking how will Labour ever win again?

    We know, they change their coalition.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You can still vote Lib Dem or Labour they just won’t campaign
    Not what happened in the Lib Dem/Green pact here in 2019. The Green candidates stood down.
    Labour isn’t doing that
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,903
    Some thoughts so far (after 5 hours' sleep...) -

    * As many predicted, the Tories are getting slaughtered in the South but holding their own in the North compared with 2018
    * But on 2018 results, Labour would have held most of the Red Wall, albeit with reduced majorities. Labour's Red Wall meltdown came in 2019, when Leavers got fed up with Brexit delay. In 2021, the Tories were actually making substantial progress in the North; Labour has reversed that and is closer to 2018 level, which would make a massive difference in terms of seats.
    * London is becoming a Labour fortress now (with a few exceptions like Kensington and Chelsea, Enfield and Merton). But outside London, the Southern votes are swinging to whoever is the obvious non-Tory, with LibDems and Greens both benefiting hugely.
    - Labour and the LibDems do have something of a de facto tactical voting alliance at grass roots level. The Greens are not part of it and could be real spoilers in a Ge in some seats.
    - The Tories risk having their votes in the wrong places. Doing quite well in the Red Wall while losing most of the seats, and melting down in the South and East is a formula for disaster.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Kensington will go Labour in 2024, nailed on
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,164

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You can still vote Lib Dem or Labour they just won’t campaign
    Parties in pacts might need to be a bit more careful next time as the just-passed Election Bill has measures about counting third-party expenditure (unless they were taken out while I was not looking).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Woke up, looked at BBC news website, and got the message it had been a bad night for Labour and a reassuring one for the Tories.

    No you didn't.

    BBC Headline is:

    LABOUR TAKES KEY LONDON COUNCILS BUT MODEST GAINS ELSEWHERE

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
    Exactly. In English electoral reporting terms that means “Labour will be a bit disappointed”. Dig into the write ups and all the “Boris safe for now” vibes tell me they did a successful job of expectation management.

    It seems any Labour performance has to be measured against Blair’s council and then GE landslide, which is a rather tricky and unnecessary KPI.
    Measuring this Labour performance against 2018 is a tricky one, because the drama to their vote they Need to fight back from happened after that. So our gut feeling is, if they are not blitzing it they are not fighting back.

    But that is us not respecting a uniform view from the professional psephologusts who told us last week Merely polling those 2018 levels again is a stride forward from where they have been.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,743
    Well I’d have preferred a Tory rout outside of London as well as inside but I guess the results are broadly in line with my expectations - Labour generally making solid but unspectacular progress. They can take some comfort from these results but need to continue to build.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    Afetr 12 years of Tory Rule and 8 months of terrible press for the Government these are not great results for Labour and are very much in line with the By-Elections of the past year.

    That is such a weak argument. Saying that these results are in line with what would you might expect after 12 years is basically admitting you’re merrily on the path to the sort of general election result you might expect after 13-14 years. Defeat.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good

    Indeed, a bit like if you call your voters thick/uneducated/racist etc they'll do so too.

    Voters don't like being insulted, that's the one thing that's worse than being taken for granted.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,637
    edited May 6

    Strong results for Labour in London, not so sure about elsewhere yet.

    The Greens make progress in places like Exeter and Oxford. Will be interesting to see who Labour pick as the candidate to replace Bradshaw in Exeter. Could be a seat to watch at the next GE.

    Ben Bradshaw had a 10k majority over the Tories in a very good election for the blues. Labour won 11 of the 15 seats contested yesterday in those wards in the Exeter constituency (there were 17 contests in Exeter yesterday but two - including a Labour gain - are in East Devon).

    Conclusion - it really won't be that interesting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,197
    Are we about to see a media reaction like the 2018 USA mid terms?

    On the night: deeply disapointing results for the Dems
    A month later: Oh, it was the largest single night of gains for the Dems in the last 40 years
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,727
    JACK_W said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Does it just keep coming all morning or can I have a bath?

    I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢

    Being obsessive is not a bad look on PB. We all are!

    Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?

    Nice to see so much yellow and green.
    I’ll answer your question. At first it looked like that. But. Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
    Meanwhile, if the Libdems have a great afternoon and evening in the blue wall, the Tory’s can go over 200 losses into the red zone the electionolgists built as the true bad measurement. 250 is losing about 1/4 councillors. The real bad result not the fake one put out in expectation management.

    Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
    Only a single lonely Tory councillor in Richmond upon Thames.
    He's 92 years old and was first elected (for Labour, funnily enough) in the Borough's first election in 1964. I believe he was on the old Twickenham Urban District Council for a term before that. He's not served continuously, but it's a pretty amazing stint.
    Excellent to note that these youngsters are still making the cut .. :smiley:
    There is a 94-year-old Independent councillor up for re-election in Argyll & Bute.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,138
    Morning all, especially those mad PBers who still haven’t gone to bed!

    Results do seem rather slow to come in, it would be much better if everyone could agree on whether to count at night or in the morning.

    Good results for Labour in London, as expected, also quite a few independents, LDs and Greens out there. Good expectations management from the Tories, a couple of hundred losses now doesn’t seem awful for them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You can still vote Lib Dem or Labour they just won’t campaign
    Not what happened in the Lib Dem/Green pact here in 2019. The Green candidates stood down.
    Labour isn’t doing that
    My point still stands. I said 'can be', with an example.

    But I do take parties that undergo even the 'little campaigning' pact with a certain contempt. If they have values, if they have beliefs, then they should stand for them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Curtice says just now on 5 live "Labour are down on 2018 outside London and that the narrative Labour are trying to push that they are doing better than under Corbyn isn't backed by the results so far"
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    As a point of reference, this is how the Daily Mail framed things in England prior to the election ...
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1521812569442467841
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    I guess if you spend your time calling Londoners out of touch liberal elites eventually they will abandon your party for good

    Indeed, a bit like if you call your voters thick/uneducated/racist etc they'll do so too.

    Voters don't like being insulted, that's the one thing that's worse than being taken for granted.
    I totally agree Bart. Well said
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    There was a Tory council leader in the Midlands who was calling for Boris to go sometime after midnight on BBC radio 4.

    He said he wasn't waiting for his count 'I've been around long enough to know when the writing's on the wall'. .......'No it's not because of losing it's a question of morality'

    ......at which point I stopped listening and now I can't find him. I'm curious to know if he did lose.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,719

    Jonathan said:

    Starmer should be be pretty happy this morning. There is significant progress since 2019.

    Afetr 12 years of Tory Rule and 8 months of terrible press for the Government these are not great results for Labour and are very much in line with the By-Elections of the past year.

    ROFL first victory in elections in years and this is three years after losing in a landslide and people asking when the Labour Party would end.

    A year after Starmee being finished.

    A year after people asking how will Labour ever win again?

    We know, they change their coalition.
    Seriously why do you expect the ruling Government of 12 years to do well in Local Elections?

    In 1999 Blair lost 32 Councils after just 2 years in power and just 2 years later he won another thumping majority.

    Governments nearly always perform badly in Local Elections, this Government has had the worst press possible for the last 8 months, Labours performance is nowhere near what it should be.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,903
    Roger said:

    There was a Tory council leader in the Midlands who was calling for Boris to go sometime after midnight on BBC radio 4.

    He said he wasn't waiting for his count 'I've been around long enough to know when the writing's on the wall'. .......'No it's not because of losing it's a question of morality'

    ......at which point I stopped listening and now I can't find him. I'm curious to know if he did lose.

    Mallinson in Carlisle - see the Guardian blog
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....

    I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.

    In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.

    Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
    Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.

    At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
    You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
    Rubbish.

    And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
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