Hmmm a lib dem revival pretty key to Labours hopes no? Although I suspect by the news bulletins tonight we we be talking about NI and certain contributors may be back to talking about UDI for Ballymena or some such....
I thought Ed Davey was very telling this morning.
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
Electoral pacts can be undemocratic, reducing local choice for the electorate.
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
You only had a choice of three parties because of First Past The Post. As long as that continues, parties are inevitably going to make (often informal) pacts to maximise their seat tallies.
Rubbish.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.
I prefer pacts to be tacit, and based on targetting seats as per 1997 than not standing a candidate, but pacts are not inconsistent with FPTP, they are a consequence of it.
Not really. Under many non-FPTP schemes, the pacts happen *after* the election, turning what happened in 2010 into the norm.
As I say, not standing candidates is really poor. Not really trying shows that you don't really believe in what you're saying.
This is nonsense. Take an extreme example. 100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate. 102 voters. 2 are socialists the rest various shades of conservatism. Socialist candidate wins with 2 votes and under 2% of the vote. That is your idea of democracy? Wouldn't it be better if the conservatives formed a pact or change from FPTP so they can stand and the most popular conservative gets elected.
Can you give me an example of a UK election where there were '100 candidates of various shades of conservatism and 1 socialist candidate', or is this just a rather extreme fiction?
Well of course it hasn't happened. I'm giving an extreme example (words I actually used) to point out the nonsense of your argument. But a subset of my example happens at every single election if more than 2 people stand. You are objecting to people forming pacts to get around the unfairness of FPTP. In which case change the system. If you won't do that you can't object to pacts. You are objecting to people refusing to spend time and money so as to commit political suicide by ensuring they can't win. You are actually demanding that someone puts the effort in to standing, which will cause the party they most object to winning by splitting the vote. And you can't see why they may not do this? That is totally daft.
It's been the consistent Tory line since about 1983, though.
Will be interesting to see what happens to the Tory vote in Scotland.
A pretty bad result for the Tories in Tweeddale West in the Borders although a better one in Trossachs and Teith in Stirling where their vote is 'only' down about 5% from 50% to 45% where they've held their 2 seats.
Do these results suggest the Tories need to look for a Tory-Libdem switcher friendly leader to negotiate their way through to the next election. A Jeremy Hunt type with a deputy who can throw the odd bit or red meat to the red wall?
These elections will be insufficient to result in a leadership challenge. Boris is safe unless there are a truckload of FPNs or Sue Gray has damning evidence about Boris himself. Sigh.
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
Labour reckon, based on vote share so far, they'd win 16 GE seats: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton NE, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Workington
It's the comeback nobody asked for: Neil Parish is considering pleas from his fellow farmers to run as an independent in the by-election triggered by his own resignation...
Key point: lots are erroneously saying Labour is not 'winning back' the Red Wall.
Change in these elections is on 2018. In 2018, Labour *had* the Red Wall nationally. Labour standing still or even going back slightly in Red Wall areas in these elections *is* progress for Labour.
There was no General Election in 2018 so how can you say Labour had the Red Wall on those results?
2018 was a red light flashing that the Red Wall could fall. 2019 was when it officially did, but that's because that's when the GE was held.
Labour held the Red Wall in 2018. In 2019 they lost it.
So to go back to 2018 means they have won a lot of seats back in any GE.
Not me saying this, Chris Curtice is
Can you quote what Curtice said, because the Red Wall didn't vote in a GE in 2018.
Going back to 2018 may mean some seats are won back, but of course this is midterms and there might be swingback before the next election as there was between 2018 and 2019, and between 2012/13/14 and 2015.
Or it could swing the other way as it did between LE 2017 and GE 2017. We can't know for certain, there really is little to know from these results other than what the polls currently show us - the government is struggling, but the Opposition haven't made a Blair-style breakthrough yet.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
You may find it irritating but it is a view widely shared
It is a fucking stupid view. Especially when spouted by people who are intelligent enough to know better.
Yes, it's moronic prejudice and we see it on here far more often than we should from people who are ostensibly intelligent enough to know better.
Of the six Surrey councils that had elections yesterday, Tandridge District Council is the only one to have completed its count overnight. Here is when counts start in the other five:
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
Labour reckon, based on vote share so far, they'd win 16 GE seats: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton NE, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Workington
So 16 out of 45 back.
15, if it happens. Hartlepool was red at the General Election - by-elections aren't counted so that would be a Labour hold if they win that one.
Labour reckon, based on vote share so far, they'd win 16 GE seats: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton NE, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Workington
So 16 out of 45 back.
That's a good mix of seats, also in places registering few council seat gains. And good to see Labour thinking that way
Expecting West Yorkshire marginals add a good number to this.
I'm sorry, are people modelling GE seat results from a local election, two years out?
There's a lot of road to run before we get to to May 2024, all we can say is that voters are, right now in this moment, pissed off with Boris and the Tories. There's not a lot else coming out of the results, maybe Labour overperforming in London but even that has got limited value in a GE given how much Labour dominate London already and no guarantee it would carry through to a GE should Boris be dumped.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
Right now this feels somewhat more like 1990 than 1995. John Major scraped an unlikely Tory victory over Kinnock, in 1992, the fourth Tory GE win in a row. We all know what happened in 1997
Perhaps an obvious point, but there are 20 Conservative MPs in London, and losing 10 of those (eg. Westminster, Harrow East, Kensington, Carshalton, Chingford, Wimbledon, Chelsea, Hendon, Chipping Barnet, Finchley) is a quarter of the way to the Tories losing their majority.
I made some quip yesterday about not really understanding the Scottish STV system. There was an explanation in the Times:
"Each council is divided into smaller areas called wards and every ward will elect between one and five councillors. To be elected, a candidate will need a certain number of votes. This minimum number is called the quota.
The first step is to count the number of valid votes cast and then calculate the quota required by a candidate to be elected. To figure out the minimum quota needed, a formula is used: (valid votes cast) divided by (seats to be filled +1) + 1 vote. So if there is only one seat to fill, the quota will be this formula: (valid votes cast) divided by (1+1) + 1 vote.
The count on Friday will be conducted electronically in several stages:
Stage one: Only the first preferences are counted. If a candidate gets enough first preferences to reach or exceed their minimum quota, they are immediately elected.
Stage two: If a candidate is elected at the first stage, their excess votes will be transferred at a reduced value (the surplus divided by the total votes received) to the next choice on those ballot papers.
Stage three: If no candidate reaches the quota after these votes have been transferred, the candidate with the fewest votes in that ward will be eliminated from the contest and their votes will be transferred.
These votes from the eliminated candidate are transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on the ballot paper. When using votes from a candidate who has been eliminated, the votes carry their full value.
This process is repeated as required until candidates reach or exceed the quota needed to be elected.
If two candidates remain with only one seat still available, then the candidate with the most votes at that stage will be declared to have been elected — even if they have not reached the quota."
I think a reasonable conclusion is that we should not be holding our breath for Scottish results!
I'm kind of growing to like the narrative that the Tories have protected the Red Wall, Labour successes are just in London and the Lib Dems in the South can be ignored because a nice bit of complacency leading up to 2024 is just what the doctor ordered. We don't want panic, or they might actually change something like the leadership and then miraculously reinvent themselves again, Dr Who style.
"The Tory special operation has succeeded in its first phase. Trying to retain Wandsworth was just a feint to tie up Labour troops. We will now make a tactical redeployment away from London and the Home Counties to focus on the real objective of our operation, the Midlands and North."
Sir Roger Gale to @LBC: “I’ve heard rumours the PM might try and put in letters to trigger a vote of no confidence now, in the hope of winning it, rather than leaving it for a weeks and finding he might lose.” https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1522502690097487872
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 22m The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
So basically, Labour went 1-0 up in 2018, then conceded a terrible, sloppy goal from a set piece in 2019, conceded another two on the break in 2021, but have now scored a second half goal in 2022 and are nearly back to where they were in 2018
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
Haven't read into it, but I'd be surprised if it was just spline fitting. I'd expect it to be demographics based with some taking account of recent perturbations (e.g. if there has been a light/heavy year for deaths then the next year might be the opposite).
The Sweden graph, FWIW, suggests it's a bit more than just splines, to me.
The best analysis, which will take a few years for the data to be available, might be to model deaths on data before and after the pandemic, based on demographics, and use those to impute the baseline for the pandemic years.
All in all, Boris Johnson might feel this morning that the overnight news has not been as bad as he might have feared. He will doubtless argue that governments often lose ground in the middle of a parliamentary term, and in the past the damage has often been worse than this.
That said, these results illustrate the sharp decline in Conservative support over the last twelve months, not least in the wake of the recent Partygate scandal and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Tory MPs might be particularly concerned about the fact that party’s vote fell most heavily in the South of England outside London where many of them have their seats.
On the other hand, they may feel comforted by Labour’s failure not to make more progress than they did.
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Council Now: CON 21, LAB 16, IND 8, LDM 6. NOC - No Change.
BJO please explain
I forecast 3% lead you say the Polls are vindicated they show a 7pt lead on average
We will see who is right
I said 5-6%.
I hope you come on here when (if) you are incorrect. I think the calculation you used to come up with your figure is badly flawed but I haven't the time to explain why. Let's await the National Equivalent Vote Share.
Those are areas the Tories tend to do better in so that’s a dreadful start for them . They currently have 276 Scottish seats . They’ll be lucky to be in 3 digits by the end of counting .
Council Now: CON 21, LAB 16, IND 8, LDM 6. NOC - No Change.
BJO please explain
You are cherry picking
Labour have gained 34 seats in total
There are more than 34 gains in London so there are Nett losses elsewhere
You can post as many cherry picked results as you wish, You can spin faster than a roulette wheel on acid
It wont alter the fact Lab have gone backward compared to 2018 except for London
Curtis on again on BBC making the same point as me you are in denial about the results
I am back when the projected National Share is known
I forecast 3% lead you say the Polls are vindicated they show a 7pt lead on average
We will see who is right
Did you vote Tory yesterday?
Course not.
Unlike CHB I have never ever voted Tory
There were no elections in my area had there been i would have abstained or voted for the Party best placed to beat Labour which in my ward would have been LDs
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 22m The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
I almost think Boris Johnson should call a snap election for next month. I talked this down when someone suggested it but now I'm not so sure.
It's just about possible he could hold a slim majority which would give them 5 years to ride out the storm. In two years they won't have a prayer.
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
I think most peoples lives are a mass of contradictions, compromises with what they want and what they believe and what they are forced to do. So, there are little hypocrisies everywhere.
That said, the disconnect between London and much of the country outside the Home Counties is very real and growing.
So, the increasing dominance of Labour in London, and the London Labour Party in Labour, is a problem.....
Of course. But much of that disconnect is the direct result of the policies of central government, so the Tories have pulled off a nice trick in associating it with someone other than themselves. How long they can continue to do so is an interesting question.
I made some quip yesterday about not really understanding the Scottish STV system. There was an explanation in the Times:
"Each council is divided into smaller areas called wards and every ward will elect between one and five councillors. To be elected, a candidate will need a certain number of votes. This minimum number is called the quota.
The first step is to count the number of valid votes cast and then calculate the quota required by a candidate to be elected. To figure out the minimum quota needed, a formula is used: (valid votes cast) divided by (seats to be filled +1) + 1 vote. So if there is only one seat to fill, the quota will be this formula: (valid votes cast) divided by (1+1) + 1 vote.
The count on Friday will be conducted electronically in several stages:
Stage one: Only the first preferences are counted. If a candidate gets enough first preferences to reach or exceed their minimum quota, they are immediately elected.
Stage two: If a candidate is elected at the first stage, their excess votes will be transferred at a reduced value (the surplus divided by the total votes received) to the next choice on those ballot papers.
Stage three: If no candidate reaches the quota after these votes have been transferred, the candidate with the fewest votes in that ward will be eliminated from the contest and their votes will be transferred.
These votes from the eliminated candidate are transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on the ballot paper. When using votes from a candidate who has been eliminated, the votes carry their full value.
This process is repeated as required until candidates reach or exceed the quota needed to be elected.
If two candidates remain with only one seat still available, then the candidate with the most votes at that stage will be declared to have been elected — even if they have not reached the quota."
I think a reasonable conclusion is that we should not be holding our breath for Scottish results!
Given the relative lack of interest in cricket (and so also Duckworth-Lewis) in Scotland, you* seem to have chosen to make politics the game with the complicated rules
All in all, Boris Johnson might feel this morning that the overnight news has not been as bad as he might have feared. He will doubtless argue that governments often lose ground in the middle of a parliamentary term, and in the past the damage has often been worse than this.
That said, these results illustrate the sharp decline in Conservative support over the last twelve months, not least in the wake of the recent Partygate scandal and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Tory MPs might be particularly concerned about the fact that party’s vote fell most heavily in the South of England outside London where many of them have their seats.
On the other hand, they may feel comforted by Labour’s failure not to make more progress than they did.
A key aspect is whether the Conservatives learn from their mistakes or whether they chose to complacently continue them.
High profile councils like Westminster and Wandsworth?
A lot of people would be thinking it's just London. Don't think the name on the council matters just the numbers. Government take a bit of a kicking mid term, gains going in various directions. No idea what will happen at the next general election.
Those are areas the Tories tend to do better in so that’s a dreadful start for them . They currently have 276 Scottish seats . They’ll be lucky to be in 3 digits by the end of counting .
The first Stirling result is a lot better for the Scottish Tories, their vote is 'only' down 5% from 50% to 45% and they've held their two seats in a three member ward (admittedly their strongest ward).
The ‘signs are positive’ that the Lib Dems have taken Somerset, Sir Ed Davey tells @MattChorley
Lib Dem leader takes a victory lap over his party taking seats off Tories in ‘David Cameron’s backyard’ in W Oxfordshire; LDs net gain of 11 in Wimbledon; & progress in Stockport.
We must now consider the chances of the Lib Dems more than doubling their seat count in any GE
Those are areas the Tories tend to do better in so that’s a dreadful start for them . They currently have 276 Scottish seats . They’ll be lucky to be in 3 digits by the end of counting .
Yep. Looks like the Greens may do pretty well if these snapshots are anything to go by.
Interesting by Montgomerie. In many ways, the worst result for both the UK and the Tories might be for Johnson to just about have done enough to keep limping on, with a paralysed gov’t constantly on the back foot. ~AA
That’s awesome! Nothing like some good old-fashioned wartime ingenuity. You will barely be able to see or hear a small drone at 500’, especially if there’s a tank engine running anywhere nearby.
Ukraine now claiming 1,100 of the 1,200 Russian tanks initially mobilised for the invasion, are destroyed or captured.
I'm far from certain on this, but my own working figure for the number of tanks the Russians had available at the start of the invasion was 3,500 - and not all of those would be in immediate working condition. I know Ukraine's claims are overstated, but from my figures that is a *third* of all Russian tanks.
Even taking Oryx's figures of 600, that is a sixth of all their tanks. They've even lost a T-90M tanks, which AIUI was introduced in 2016, and was only recently put into the theatre.
Yes, various sources have the Russian tank fleet at between 3,000 and 3,500 tanks, either serviceable or fixable.
Take a median figure for the losses, and they’ve lost a quarter of their tanks in 70 days. If the fighting continues over the summer at the same rate, there won’t be a Russian land army by the autumn.
This chap - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA - thinks there are about 6K Russian tanks in the storage depots. And that less than half of those are capable of being returned to service - lots of hulls with no turrets left to rust in the open air.
Ukraine also has a slightly smaller, but nonetheless sizeable reserve of obsolete hulls. Probably in far better condition. Enough that they were trying to build an export business of upgraded kit out of them, pre-invasion.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 22m The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
I almost think Boris Johnson should call a snap election for next month. I talked this down when someone suggested it but now I'm not so sure.
It's just about possible he could hold a slim majority which would give them 5 years to ride out the storm. In two years they won't have a prayer.
There isn't a snowballs chance in hell a PM with an eighty seat majority and 2 years left to run is going to call an early election while behind in the polls.
All in all, Boris Johnson might feel this morning that the overnight news has not been as bad as he might have feared. He will doubtless argue that governments often lose ground in the middle of a parliamentary term, and in the past the damage has often been worse than this.
That said, these results illustrate the sharp decline in Conservative support over the last twelve months, not least in the wake of the recent Partygate scandal and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Tory MPs might be particularly concerned about the fact that party’s vote fell most heavily in the South of England outside London where many of them have their seats.
On the other hand, they may feel comforted by Labour’s failure not to make more progress than they did.
A key aspect is whether the Conservatives learn from their mistakes or whether they chose to complacently continue them.
Same is true of Labour, of course.
As things stand, I see no reason to doubt that neither will learn from their mistakes.
There’s a lot of stuff and nonsense re extrapolating these results into GE performance on here this morning. Have we not learned the lessons of the past on this?
Decent but unspectacular from Labour, poor from Tories, cheery for lib dems. That’s pretty much how I see it all round. Probably reflects the National mood quite well - people fed up with Boris, coming round to Labour a bit but still not fully sold, and looking for alternatives.
It tells us the government is on the back foot going into the last 2 years of the Parliament. Not sure it tells us anything meaningful about particular seats or likely results, yet.
I made some quip yesterday about not really understanding the Scottish STV system. There was an explanation in the Times:
"Each council is divided into smaller areas called wards and every ward will elect between one and five councillors. To be elected, a candidate will need a certain number of votes. This minimum number is called the quota.
The first step is to count the number of valid votes cast and then calculate the quota required by a candidate to be elected. To figure out the minimum quota needed, a formula is used: (valid votes cast) divided by (seats to be filled +1) + 1 vote. So if there is only one seat to fill, the quota will be this formula: (valid votes cast) divided by (1+1) + 1 vote.
The count on Friday will be conducted electronically in several stages:
Stage one: Only the first preferences are counted. If a candidate gets enough first preferences to reach or exceed their minimum quota, they are immediately elected.
Stage two: If a candidate is elected at the first stage, their excess votes will be transferred at a reduced value (the surplus divided by the total votes received) to the next choice on those ballot papers.
Stage three: If no candidate reaches the quota after these votes have been transferred, the candidate with the fewest votes in that ward will be eliminated from the contest and their votes will be transferred.
These votes from the eliminated candidate are transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on the ballot paper. When using votes from a candidate who has been eliminated, the votes carry their full value.
This process is repeated as required until candidates reach or exceed the quota needed to be elected.
If two candidates remain with only one seat still available, then the candidate with the most votes at that stage will be declared to have been elected — even if they have not reached the quota."
I think a reasonable conclusion is that we should not be holding our breath for Scottish results!
Given the relative lack of interest in cricket (and so also Duckworth-Lewis) in Scotland, you* seem to have chosen to make politics the game with the complicated rules
*or was it a UK Gov decision?
I think that the Scottish government came up with this. Given the strong trend to innumeracy in Scotland it shows real optimism! And I would remind you that the last time Scotland played England in an ODI they won!
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
@NickPalmer is one of the best posters on the site without a doubt.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
There's scope for the Conservatives to win in 2024 if they get their act together.
If.
Longer term they have fundamental problems caused by unaffordable housing and student debt which will increasingly threaten their position in southern England.
But as you say there's no enthusiasm for or answers from Labour so while a win for Labour is certainly possible it would be more by default.
The LibDems are returning to being the 'nice' party for whom a protest vote is the natural thing to do - but their strategy of unrestricted immigration and ultra nimbyism has little genuine appeal beyond the posher parts of the waitrose belt.
Those are areas the Tories tend to do better in so that’s a dreadful start for them . They currently have 276 Scottish seats . They’ll be lucky to be in 3 digits by the end of counting .
It was always going to be hard after Ruth. She reached parts of the electorate, especially soft Labour voters, that other Tories cannot get near. Boris hasn't helped though.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 22m The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
I almost think Boris Johnson should call a snap election for next month. I talked this down when someone suggested it but now I'm not so sure.
It's just about possible he could hold a slim majority which would give them 5 years to ride out the storm. In two years they won't have a prayer.
There isn't a snowballs chance in hell a PM with an eighty seat majority and 2 years left to run is going to call an early election while behind in the polls.
Indeed, which is why it’s been talked up mostly by opponents of the government.
The idea of sending the letters in, to force the MPs behind the PM and give him a year of breathing space, that’s more plausible.
I just called some daft woman in a PR company and I could hear her dog barking, her partner chatting, her plumber arriving, and the woman herself was an echoey voice in a tin bucket, barely comprehensible
She said "Yes, I'm working from home, it's not ideal sorry you can't hear me"
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
There's scope for the Conservatives to win in 2024 if they get their act together.
If.
Longer term they have fundamental problems caused by unaffordable housing and student debt which will increasingly threaten their position in southern England.
But as you say there's no enthusiasm for or answers from Labour so while a win for Labour is certainly possible it would be more by default.
The LibDems are returning to being the 'nice' party for whom a protest vote is the natural thing to do - but their strategy of unrestricted immigration and ultra nimbyism has little genuine appeal beyond the posher parts of the waitrose belt.
I agree with much with this. Particularly pertinent point re the long term problem for the Tories. If they did manage to hold on in 2024 then I think that will be the last hurrah for some time.
Council Now: CON 21, LAB 16, IND 8, LDM 6. NOC - No Change.
BJO please explain
You are cherry picking
Labour have gained 34 seats in total
There are more than 34 gains in London so there are Nett losses elsewhere
You can post as many cherry picked results as you wish, You can spin faster than a roulette wheel on acid
It wont alter the fact Lab have gone backward compared to 2018 except for London
Curtis on again on BBC making the same point as me you are in denial about the results
I am back when the projected National Share is known
I forecast 3% lead you say the Polls are vindicated they show a 7pt lead on average
We will see who is right
Did you vote Tory yesterday?
Course not.
Unlike CHB I have never ever voted Tory
There were no elections in my area had there been i would have abstained or voted for the Party best placed to beat Labour which in my ward would have been LDs
So never voted Tory, but would do so if they were best placed to challenge Starmer's Labour ?
Those are areas the Tories tend to do better in so that’s a dreadful start for them . They currently have 276 Scottish seats . They’ll be lucky to be in 3 digits by the end of counting .
It was always going to be hard after Ruth. She reached parts of the electorate, especially soft Labour voters, that other Tories cannot get near. Boris hasn't helped though.
I just called some daft woman in a PR company and I could hear her dog barking, her partner chatting, her plumber arriving, and the woman herself was an echoey voice in a tin bucket, barely comprehensible
She said "Yes, I'm working from home, it's not ideal sorry you can't hear me"
WELL GET BACK TO THE FUCKING OFFICE THEN
I've had enough of these shirkers.
*stares at the Aegean; orders another coffee*
Certainly no virus related reason for WFH at moment.
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
The "Yet" is the key word there.
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 22m The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
I almost think Boris Johnson should call a snap election for next month. I talked this down when someone suggested it but now I'm not so sure.
It's just about possible he could hold a slim majority which would give them 5 years to ride out the storm. In two years they won't have a prayer.
This is one of your suggestions that the answer is utterly no way whatsoever
"Boris has been spared by the Red Wall In the unsentimental tough-minded parts of the electoral map, Sir Keir Starmer’s new look Labour just doesn’t cut it Janet Daley"
The party said this morning that it has gained 16 Leave-voting general election seats based on aggregate vote share: Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Ipswich, Leigh, Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage, Thurrock, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester and Workington.
Thanks for sharing this Nick. It would be useful if the BBC was capable of providing this sort of information.
PB is great. Posters taking the time and effort to collate key information from multiple sources for the benefit of all.
@NickPalmer is one of the best posters on the site without a doubt.
I like his unique insight into Labour that I don't have as a member. And he is able to put his own political views aside for the sake of the party itself but also analysing what it needs to do to win. And I respect that kind of posting.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522507395750146048 Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area
@chriscurtis94 gives a nuanced take on the Local Election results *so far*. Results have to be seen through the prism of the massive realignment that occurred between the local elections 2018 and the 2019 GE. #LocalElection2022 @BBCNews@OpiniumResearch
Chris Curtis always good.
Red Wall is back in Labour hands. Bye Boris.
Slightly more optimistic then for Labour given what Curtis is saying but I'm sorry this is mid-term, the economy is in free fall, the PM is a proven liar who broke lockdown and the tories have had 12 years in office. Labour should be hammering them all over the country outside absolute tory heartlands.
Indeed.
It looks like Starmer has failed to achieve even a Kinnock level performance.
But the Conservatives have serious underlying problems which they show no sign of addressing.
And I see no sign that the complacency and sleaze and inattention to detail which Boris wallows in will stop.
That's my reading of these results
The people are bored of this government, and many are irritated or deeply angered. Brexit fades even for its supporters (tho they can still be riled by Remainerism, if and when it returns). The economy looms ever larger (even larger than Ukraine).
On issues which are traditional Tory strengths - eg taxes, immigration - the Tories are weak.
So, really, the Tories should be looking at a terrible defeat in 2024, and a gleaming new Opposition should storm to power.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party the Labour Party is led by a dull, Woke London lawyer surrounded by similar uninspiring types. There is no enthusiasm for them. What would they do that is any different, at all? How would they fix anything? Answer comes there none
The mood about the country is anti-Tory and anti-Boris, but that's not enough for Labour. Yet.
There's scope for the Conservatives to win in 2024 if they get their act together.
If.
Longer term they have fundamental problems caused by unaffordable housing and student debt which will increasingly threaten their position in southern England.
But as you say there's no enthusiasm for or answers from Labour so while a win for Labour is certainly possible it would be more by default.
The LibDems are returning to being the 'nice' party for whom a protest vote is the natural thing to do - but their strategy of unrestricted immigration and ultra nimbyism has little genuine appeal beyond the posher parts of the waitrose belt.
The only way the Tories stand a chance at the next GE is to ditch Johnson. That is why this set of election results make a Labour government much more likely rather than less, based on the fact that they are not terrible enough for the Tories to get the message that they need to topple him.
Early results coming in from around Scotland, and the question of the day might end up being who profits most from the Tory vote sliding...in this example, Labour's share has gone up more but with the SNP still dominant they're the ones who gain a seat
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Was a nice spot 35 years ago, too.
Yes, I think it was you and TimT that turned me on to it (not that it's a hidden gem, there's a lot of Brits here)
Anyways it is decidedly charming, still, you will be glad to hear
Morning all. So, a new dawn has broken has it not? No, it hasn’t.
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Was a nice spot 35 years ago, too.
Yes, I think it was you and TimT that turned me on to it (not that it's a hidden gem, there's a lot of Brits here)
Anyways it is decidedly charming, still, you will be glad to hear
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Morning all. So, a new dawn has broken has it not? No, it hasn’t.
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
Excellent analysis.
The succession of Labour Politicians all spinning the opposite on BBC / SKY is sickening
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Good morning. Probably the best coffee bar view I’ve had in a while. Certainly a better prospect than that facing the Tories
Where are you Leon?
And agreed.
Kusadasi, on the Turkish Aegean coast. It is a perfect little tourist town, ie touristy enough to have good hotels (like this) and nice cafes, bars, and restaurants, but also Turkish enough to feel authentically itself.
It is also notably prosperous-looking. More prosperous than many towns in, say, Red Wall England, rundown Belgium, rainy Picardy, scruffy Calabria or the Deep South of the USA
Must be some local money pouring in. They have a brand new marina and waterfront
It is also CHEAP as the Turkish lira remains at historic lows. Recommended
Was a nice spot 35 years ago, too.
Yes, I think it was you and TimT that turned me on to it (not that it's a hidden gem, there's a lot of Brits here)
Anyways it is decidedly charming, still, you will be glad to hear
Now tempted to revisit sometime.
With the Turkish lira where it is, right now is a good time
5 star hotels are about £80 a night, if you are canny
A mystical SLAB revival that could influence GE '24 might be indicated by gains in Glasgow and the Lanarkshires (N & S), but also Fife, Inverclyde and East/Midlothian.
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
Morning all. So, a new dawn has broken has it not? No, it hasn’t.
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
Excellent analysis.
The succession of Labour Politicians all spinning the opposite on BBC / SKY is sickening
Well you have to do that, don't you. Preferred narratives. Rules of the game.
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
A mystical SLAB revival that could influence GE '24 might be indicated by gains in Glasgow and the Lanarkshires (N & S), but also Fife, Inverclyde and East/Midlothian.
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
Lib Dems are doing really well in middle class areas of Edinburgh as well. They're getting 3/4 in Almond ward.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
It is all about Wandsworth and London for Starmer, Labour and the media and if he was good at politics he would have been to Cumberland first with the cameras announcing labour's success
Here's a theory that might look silly later today. London Labour is very different from rUK Labour. It is massively more affluent, entitled, professional and articulate. It has different strands from Corbynite internationalism to SKS pomposity but it is fundamentally different.
For Londoners this seems to be catnip and their total domination of the metropolis is relentless and ongoing. It seems odd that the most capitalist part of the UK trends ever further left but that is where we are. For rUK it is more of a turnoff. They look at these smug, cosmopolitan professionals and ask what have you ever done for me and mine?
In Scotland there is a possible recovery against an SNP that is losing all credibility. Only the utter incompetence of their opposition allows them to remain in office at all. But in rUK outside the metropolis I am not sure that SKS has anything to say.
There will be some that will vote for them anyway given their disgust at a PM that lies so fluently, a Chancellor who struggles to relate to the economic pressures people are facing and a government of less than average competence but there are other choices. My tentative prediction is that Labour will make very few gains today outside London and, possibly, parts of Scotland. The Tories will lose but not necessarily to Labour. If that is right then Labour is still going to struggle in a GE.
Aren't you a lawyer who sent his kids to the most expensive school in Dundee? You've got some nerve accusing other people of being affluent, smug professionals, surely! Although for the Tories this kind of absurd projection is de rigeur these days, of course.
Why so personal and irrespective it seems a fair contribution to the debate
I don't want to be personal, but this kind of absurd projection where people like Dominic Cummings (private school, Oxford, married to an aristocrat, lives in Islington) rail against a smug entitled elite is really bloody irritating, and it's just as irritating when it pops up here. DavidL is just as elite, and in some regards more so, than all the people in London that he probably imagines spend their every waking hour at a dinner party swigging champagne while laughing at the working class.
Oh would some power the giftie gie us, to see oursels as others see us!
Ed Davey: “The earthquake in North Shropshire has turned into a shockwave across our country…I think the tectonic plates of British politics are shifting. I think it’s up to Conservative MPs to shove Boris Johnson into the abyss.” https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522518343206543361
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
Yes - but we all know he’s going to be spending the day in Wandsworth and Westminster.
Morning all. So, a new dawn has broken has it not? No, it hasn’t.
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
Nice analysis.
Basically, a party doesn't go from the kind of defeat Labour suffered in 2019 straight to government within one parliamentary term. It's a two term project but it's made more difficult by Starmer being dull as dishwater and also being mainly associated with the "People's Vote" shenanigans in the 17-19 Parliament.
One more Con win with a small majority in 2023/2024, Labour ditch Starmer and return to government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's likely to be a Labour decade is my best guess.
If Starmer has any sense he'd get himself up pronto to the Lake District to bask in the Labour victories here. Not go on about Westminster and Wandsworth.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated. 2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them. 3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
I suspect that he will pop up soon enough. Hopefully with a takeway curry and crate of ale for the election workers!
Here's a 'where am I?', really for Morris if he's on - once one of the most important cities in the world (listed as one of the principal nine by one classical text), it was sacked by Attila and never recovered, now a smallish Italian town well off the tourist trail, although with a fair few Roman columns scattered about, and a bit of a boating scene going on...
Acquileia.
Top of the class. Just off to have a look round the Roman ruins..
I made some quip yesterday about not really understanding the Scottish STV system. There was an explanation in the Times:
"Each council is divided into smaller areas called wards and every ward will elect between one and five councillors. To be elected, a candidate will need a certain number of votes. This minimum number is called the quota.
The first step is to count the number of valid votes cast and then calculate the quota required by a candidate to be elected. To figure out the minimum quota needed, a formula is used: (valid votes cast) divided by (seats to be filled +1) + 1 vote. So if there is only one seat to fill, the quota will be this formula: (valid votes cast) divided by (1+1) + 1 vote.
The count on Friday will be conducted electronically in several stages:
Stage one: Only the first preferences are counted. If a candidate gets enough first preferences to reach or exceed their minimum quota, they are immediately elected.
Stage two: If a candidate is elected at the first stage, their excess votes will be transferred at a reduced value (the surplus divided by the total votes received) to the next choice on those ballot papers.
Stage three: If no candidate reaches the quota after these votes have been transferred, the candidate with the fewest votes in that ward will be eliminated from the contest and their votes will be transferred.
These votes from the eliminated candidate are transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on the ballot paper. When using votes from a candidate who has been eliminated, the votes carry their full value.
This process is repeated as required until candidates reach or exceed the quota needed to be elected.
If two candidates remain with only one seat still available, then the candidate with the most votes at that stage will be declared to have been elected — even if they have not reached the quota."
I think a reasonable conclusion is that we should not be holding our breath for Scottish results!
Given the relative lack of interest in cricket (and so also Duckworth-Lewis) in Scotland, you* seem to have chosen to make politics the game with the complicated rules
*or was it a UK Gov decision?
I think that the Scottish government came up with this. Given the strong trend to innumeracy in Scotland it shows real optimism! And I would remind you that the last time Scotland played England in an ODI they won!
Indeed. We're interested in cricket down here. Doesn't mean we're any good at it!
O/T We were discussing the latest WHO excess deaths numbers yesterday, and in particular those for Germany and Sweden, which looked a bit odd, verging (in Germany's case) on totally implausible.
Haven't read into it, but I'd be surprised if it was just spline fitting. I'd expect it to be demographics based with some taking account of recent perturbations (e.g. if there has been a light/heavy year for deaths then the next year might be the opposite).
The Sweden graph, FWIW, suggests it's a bit more than just splines, to me.
The best analysis, which will take a few years for the data to be available, might be to model deaths on data before and after the pandemic, based on demographics, and use those to impute the baseline for the pandemic years.
Which is a valid suggestion, except that you won't be able to remove any COVID-tail effect which I have a hypothesis is going to be non-negligable. (That is, that excess deaths in the next 5 years or so will be higher than in a non-pandemic universe, and I think that this is principally going to be due to lockdown rather than COVID. Think cancer patients who have been identified late, and so whilst the primary is now being dealt with suffer from secondarys in a couple of years etc)
Comments
Will be interesting to see what happens to the Tory vote in Scotland.
A pretty bad result for the Tories in Tweeddale West in the Borders although a better one in Trossachs and Teith in Stirling where their vote is 'only' down about 5% from 50% to 45% where they've held their 2 seats.
I would have thought there would be two options that make sense as a baseline.
1. Very simple five year average, 2015-19.
2. Very detailed prediction of the baseline on the basis of analysis of demographic and disease-level trends.
What a mess.
https://woking.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/668604
https://twitter.com/wokingcouncil/status/1522496771368407040
If the LibDems did manage to take Woking it will be an earthquake. There are 11 Conservative MPs in Surrey, including some big hitters.
Watch this space.
Going back to 2018 may mean some seats are won back, but of course this is midterms and there might be swingback before the next election as there was between 2018 and 2019, and between 2012/13/14 and 2015.
Or it could swing the other way as it did between LE 2017 and GE 2017. We can't know for certain, there really is little to know from these results other than what the polls currently show us - the government is struggling, but the Opposition haven't made a Blair-style breakthrough yet.
I'm chewing my nails!!!
In a normal parliament, this would be roughly as good as it gets for the opposition, there would be swingback from here and the government would be sitting pretty.
Whatever it is, this parliament isn't normal.
True!!
Labour have gained 34 seats in total
There are more than 34 gains in London so there are Nett losses elsewhere
You can post as many cherry picked results as you wish, You can spin faster than a roulette wheel on acid
It wont alter the fact Lab have gone backward compared to 2018 except for London
Curtis on again on BBC making the same point as me you are in denial about the results
I am back when the projected National Share is known
I forecast 3% lead you say the Polls are vindicated they show a 7pt lead on average
We will see who is right
Here we are @BartholomewRoberts
Expecting West Yorkshire marginals add a good number to this.
x2
There's a lot of road to run before we get to to May 2024, all we can say is that voters are, right now in this moment, pissed off with Boris and the Tories. There's not a lot else coming out of the results, maybe Labour overperforming in London but even that has got limited value in a GE given how much Labour dominate London already and no guarantee it would carry through to a GE should Boris be dumped.
"Each council is divided into smaller areas called wards and every ward will elect between one and five councillors. To be elected, a candidate will need a certain number of votes. This minimum number is called the quota.
The first step is to count the number of valid votes cast and then calculate the quota required by a candidate to be elected.
To figure out the minimum quota needed, a formula is used: (valid votes cast) divided by (seats to be filled +1) + 1 vote. So if there is only one seat to fill, the quota will be this formula: (valid votes cast) divided by (1+1) + 1 vote.
The count on Friday will be conducted electronically in several stages:
Stage one: Only the first preferences are counted. If a candidate gets enough first preferences to reach or exceed their minimum quota, they are immediately elected.
Stage two: If a candidate is elected at the first stage, their excess votes will be transferred at a reduced value (the surplus divided by the total votes received) to the next choice on those ballot papers.
Stage three: If no candidate reaches the quota after these votes have been transferred, the candidate with the fewest votes in that ward will be eliminated from the contest and their votes will be transferred.
These votes from the eliminated candidate are transferred to the remaining candidates based on the next available preference marked on the ballot paper. When using votes from a candidate who has been eliminated, the votes carry their full value.
This process is repeated as required until candidates reach or exceed the quota needed to be elected.
If two candidates remain with only one seat still available, then the candidate with the most votes at that stage will be declared to have been elected — even if they have not reached the quota."
I think a reasonable conclusion is that we should not be holding our breath for Scottish results!
"The Tory special operation has succeeded in its first phase. Trying to retain Wandsworth was just a feint to tie up Labour troops. We will now make a tactical redeployment away from London and the Home Counties to focus on the real objective of our operation, the Midlands and North."
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1522502690097487872
James Forsyth
@JGForsyth
·
22m
The worry for the Tories isn’t so much these results, but the fact that there is so much bad news coming down the track between now and the next election
The Sweden graph, FWIW, suggests it's a bit more than just splines, to me.
The best analysis, which will take a few years for the data to be available, might be to model deaths on data before and after the pandemic, based on demographics, and use those to impute the baseline for the pandemic years.
All in all, Boris Johnson might feel this morning that the overnight news has not been as bad as he might have feared. He will doubtless argue that governments often lose ground in the middle of a parliamentary term, and in the past the damage has often been worse than this.
That said, these results illustrate the sharp decline in Conservative support over the last twelve months, not least in the wake of the recent Partygate scandal and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Tory MPs might be particularly concerned about the fact that party’s vote fell most heavily in the South of England outside London where many of them have their seats.
On the other hand, they may feel comforted by Labour’s failure not to make more progress than they did.
I hope you come on here when (if) you are incorrect. I think the calculation you used to come up with your figure is badly flawed but I haven't the time to explain why. Let's await the National Equivalent Vote Share.
Unlike CHB I have never ever voted Tory
There were no elections in my area had there been i would have abstained or voted for the Party best placed to beat Labour which in my ward would have been LDs
It's just about possible he could hold a slim majority which would give them 5 years to ride out the storm. In two years they won't have a prayer.
But much of that disconnect is the direct result of the policies of central government, so the Tories have pulled off a nice trick in associating it with someone other than themselves.
How long they can continue to do so is an interesting question.
*or was it a UK Gov decision?
A lot of people would be thinking it's just London. Don't think the name on the council matters just the numbers. Government take a bit of a kicking mid term, gains going in various directions. No idea what will happen at the next general election.
Lib Dem leader takes a victory lap over his party taking seats off Tories in ‘David Cameron’s backyard’ in W Oxfordshire; LDs net gain of 11 in Wimbledon; & progress in Stockport.
We must now consider the chances of the Lib Dems more than doubling their seat count in any GE
Looks like the Greens may do pretty well if these snapshots are anything to go by.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1522502658346688512/video/1
Enough that they were trying to build an export business of upgraded kit out of them, pre-invasion.
As things stand, I see no reason to doubt that neither will learn from their mistakes.
Aontu are basically right wing Irish Republicans (a group, who hitherto, have not had a party that represents them).
Decent but unspectacular from Labour, poor from Tories, cheery for lib dems. That’s pretty much how I see it all round. Probably reflects the National mood quite well - people fed up with Boris, coming round to Labour a bit but still not fully sold, and looking for alternatives.
It tells us the government is on the back foot going into the last 2 years of the Parliament. Not sure it tells us anything meaningful about particular seats or likely results, yet.
And I would remind you that the last time Scotland played England in an ODI they won!
If.
Longer term they have fundamental problems caused by unaffordable housing and student debt which will increasingly threaten their position in southern England.
But as you say there's no enthusiasm for or answers from Labour so while a win for Labour is certainly possible it would be more by default.
The LibDems are returning to being the 'nice' party for whom a protest vote is the natural thing to do - but their strategy of unrestricted immigration and ultra nimbyism has little genuine appeal beyond the posher parts of the waitrose belt.
The idea of sending the letters in, to force the MPs behind the PM and give him a year of breathing space, that’s more plausible.
I just called some daft woman in a PR company and I could hear her dog barking, her partner chatting, her plumber arriving, and the woman herself was an echoey voice in a tin bucket, barely comprehensible
She said "Yes, I'm working from home, it's not ideal sorry you can't hear me"
WELL GET BACK TO THE FUCKING OFFICE THEN
I've had enough of these shirkers.
*stares at the Aegean; orders another coffee*
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1522509777053618176
Or would that be the abstention ?
Best of luck to him, in any case.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1522510890393812993?t=4x5RPn905YhdLFToVLG3aw&s=19
Clearly money well spent on the part of SCon given that I live in West Oxfordshire.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522507395750146048
Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny island in Black Sea. Rescue operation ongoing, multiple aircraft, rescue vessels in the area
https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/1522512737842118657
Anyways it is decidedly charming, still, you will be glad to hear
It’s still all to play for, with an economic shit-storm coming and Johnson certain to become ever more palpably crass and trivial in how he conducts himself, but with apols to my PB Lab comrades, based on these locals, ‘head over heart’ instructs me to revise my GE central expectation for betting purposes from hung parliament PM Starmer to small Con majority PM Johnson.
I’m sliding back to my previous unwelcome view that Brexit has changed the game by creating a new (and strong) political identity to the benefit of the Cons (so long as they stay Brexity) and the detriment of Labour. There’s enough of this identity in the ‘red wall’ for them to retain a good proportion of the seats they won there in 2019 and enough habitual tory voters in the shires and the south – inc the deeply reprehensible ‘hold the nosers’ - to win plenty there too. And then of course the bizarre Midlands who do a decent impression of actually liking the modern Conservative party, finding it pleasing to the eye with a sunny personality and GSOH.
Add it together and with FPTP doing its crazy thing it’s enough. A Con majority of 15 seats, something like that. False precision, I know, and no spreadsheet as yet, and of course ‘long way to go and only a fool’, but this is the look & feel of it from where I’m sitting (which is in Regents Park, nice day).
London has again voted superbly well (eg my Wandsworth bet landed easily) but I can’t get too excited about this when the rest of the country flops. This seems to have become a pattern and if it continues thoughts will have to turn to independence. A situation whereby we, the capital city, keep having low rent Tory governments foisted upon us is simply not tenable in the long run. Strategy for this? I’m of the ‘gradualist’ persuasion. I don’t want to see Sadiq going for wildcat referendums or the like. Let’s just build the requisite majority for “Yes” over the piece and then hold a legal vote when we’re confident of winning it.
He should come to Millom, which May visited after Trudi Harrison won Copeland in early 2017. It would be a good way of showing three things:-
1. Labour has started the process of reversing the shift to the Tories in traditional Labour seats which that Copeland victory demonstrated.
2. Labour will pay proper attention to areas such as this - forgotten under previous Labour governments, promised the moon by the Tories but let down by them.
3. Labour will not just be a complacent London-centric party. There is a danger for Labour in doing that. It is its comfort-zone but it is not the way to win elections nor the way to govern effectively.
I will even throw in a tour of my lovely garden and he can look at the Iron Line proposals.
Come on, Keir. You can do it!
LD 59.8%
SNP 20.9%
Con 7.5%
Lab 4.9%
Others 6.9%
This ward is the Lib Dems strongest area of Scotland and will go 3 Lib Dem 1 SNP IMO.
The succession of Labour Politicians all spinning the opposite on BBC / SKY is sickening
5 star hotels are about £80 a night, if you are canny
The SNP coalition with the Greens also starts to make sense. They could cause havoc in the marginals, have a weird feeling about Edinburgh (hardly any SNP posters round me, loads of Greens).
No good for betting though.
......as they say on Sauchiehall Street
Fingers crossed she’s joining Moskva on the bottom.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522518343206543361
Basically, a party doesn't go from the kind of defeat Labour suffered in 2019 straight to government within one parliamentary term. It's a two term project but it's made more difficult by Starmer being dull as dishwater and also being mainly associated with the "People's Vote" shenanigans in the 17-19 Parliament.
One more Con win with a small majority in 2023/2024, Labour ditch Starmer and return to government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's likely to be a Labour decade is my best guess.
“In a daily estimation of Russian loses General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine added +1 boat this morning”
She’s not a small ship either. 409’, 4000 tons, built in 2017.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-russian-frigate-e2-80-98admiral-makarov-e2-80-99-might-be-the-juiciest-target-in-the-black-sea/ar-AAWYA1z