Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

189111314

Comments

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Pulpstar said:

    "Just four more weeks ..."
    image

    Boris is going to look much older than that in 30 years !
    No way does Boris have 30 years left in him. From the crime week drugs bust photo op, very clear he'd put every pound back on with interest after his post covid health kick.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited December 2021
    darkage said:

    I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.

    The vaccines are highly worthwhile, I'll be getting the polyvalent one as soon as I'm able - a nice booster also for my Pfizer shares hopefully. But the lockdowns/gov't edicts are indeed not sustainable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878
    This pandemic is like one of those classic computer games where each time you get through a level, the next one comes at you twice as fast. Tetris, or block breaker, or space invaders.

    So you keep battering the keys faster and faster until the whole thing collapses over you and GAME OVER flashes up on screen. With Omicron we’ve just started that final, too-fast level.

    Actually Omicron would be a good name for an arcade game, as would Delta.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,165
    darkage said:

    I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.

    Fine post.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Currently watching a panto in Sunderland. Mask usage very low once you’re past the mask gestapo at the door.

    Oh no it isn't !
    Boris: What is next for my career?
    Everyone: It is behind you...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2021

    On topic. Cut through? Anecdotal -

    My Green Party friend in Bristol says

    2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown
    2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson

    She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.

    Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆

    PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
    Had thought Greens were picking up votes from the disgruntled Corbynites in Bristol West. It would be quite an earthquake if Thangam Debbonaire was defenestrated, Labour had 62% of the vote, the Greens 24%. The Lib Dems didn't bother to field a candidate in Dec 2019, some may have voted Green rather than Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    darkage said:

    We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.

    Thanks for letting us know about things like this.
  • maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    Yes, indeed
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Currently watching a panto in Sunderland. Mask usage very low once you’re past the mask gestapo at the door.

    Oh no it isn't !
    Boris: What is next for my career?
    Everyone: It is behind you...
    Or with a Julian Clary voice: "He's behind you!"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    A shred of optimism


    The latest SA data is in. Growth is definitely slowing, quite dramatically. No surge in deaths, yet


    "#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 83,515 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 19,018 new cases, which represents a 22.8% positivity rate. A further 20 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 90,080 to date. See more here: https://nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-10-december-2021/"

    https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469400938964307969?s=20

    However, a caveat:

    "The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    True.
  • Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Thousands are dying from treatable illnesses as there is no health care, only covid care.

    Thousands have died alone. Millions have lost the best year of their lives. Truly, what a wonderful society we have.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,739
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517



    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer

    That's awful - the very best of luck for the 22nd.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    A shred of optimism


    The latest SA data is in. Growth is definitely slowing, quite dramatically. No surge in deaths, yet


    "#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 83,515 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 19,018 new cases, which represents a 22.8% positivity rate. A further 20 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 90,080 to date. See more here: https://nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-10-december-2021/"

    https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469400938964307969?s=20

    However, a caveat:

    "The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"

    You mean the doubling time doesn't stay static. That repeatedly calling growth exponential is a childish and incorrect simplification? Never!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    A shred of optimism


    The latest SA data is in. Growth is definitely slowing, quite dramatically. No surge in deaths, yet


    "#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 83,515 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 19,018 new cases, which represents a 22.8% positivity rate. A further 20 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 90,080 to date. See more here: https://nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-10-december-2021/"

    https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469400938964307969?s=20

    However, a caveat:

    "The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"

    They upgraded to Excel 2017.....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited December 2021
    Roger said:

    malcolmg said:

    doom and gloom and blind panic on here at present

    Covid or being led by the worst Prime Minister since records began?
    Don’t be too hasty.

    Ninety eight thousand years ago we were ruled by Krud the Thud who was clearly worse than Boris, before being run over by mammoths. How he dealt with the outbreak of cold sores of unmerciful death was hugely unpopular, as was his club tax, cave tax, and peace treaty with the French. Boris ain’t at those levels yet.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,165

    Andy_JS said:

    Oh.



    Tim Montgomerie @montie

    I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.

    I agree with him.
    100% agreed. 💯
    I won't actively disobey what I am required to do by law. But I will be absolutely livid if the Government extends restictions further by once again applying them collectively to the whole population. If more restrictions are necessary, they should apply to the unvaccinated who are almost solely responsible for keeping us in this mess by their idiotic choice to ignore the only sustainable way out.

    So:
    - rather than closing schools or sending whole year groups home, just send home unvaccinated children
    - working from home to apply only to the unvaccinated
    - vaccine passports only whereever venues are restricted, so that the unvaccinated can't get around restrictions by using lateral flow tests
    - and financial carrots to get vaccinated, and financial sticks to those who choose not to
    etc, etc

    Resolute measures will both isolate those most likely to do the spreading and get the vaccination rate up.
    Covid Tax for the unvaccinated like we tax smokers.

    £600 per annum NHS poll tax on every adult (ie £50 per month) but zero-rated if you are vaccinated.
    Sunak has the mechanism for this by way of the new hypothecated NI from next April.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    TimS said:

    This pandemic is like one of those classic computer games where each time you get through a level, the next one comes at you twice as fast. Tetris, or block breaker, or space invaders.

    So you keep battering the keys faster and faster until the whole thing collapses over you and GAME OVER flashes up on screen. With Omicron we’ve just started that final, too-fast level.

    Actually Omicron would be a good name for an arcade game, as would Delta.

    Delta was a very popular game on the Commodore 64.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
  • I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
    Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.

    Farage MP within the year, PM within three years

    *chilled spines everywhere*
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,537
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.

    I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:

    - full lockdown now
    - full lockdown boxing day

    OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun :)
    Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
    Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
    Och, you're a kill joy. Hot alcoholic drinks and lots of self indulgent food. What's not to like?
    Just think the birds deserve as much a party as me :)

    I am interested in the relationships between the Council and Underbelly, etc. Also getting rid of the Georgian masonry and some lovely mature trees.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
    Yes, but what we don't know is how the jabs do against severe disease and death re Omicron. We have assumptions, is all
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    A non trivial percentage of the Omicron hospitalised end up in ICU....


    "About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"


    (Bloomberg)
    Is has to be quite serious for someone to be admitted to hospital. If only 7.6% are in ICU that doesn't sound too bad. I'm not dismissing all this but quite a bit of hysteria seems to be around.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    Your proof is 1 anecdote of someone feeling a bit rough at home not in hospital.

    OK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Just for fun, but covid cases in South Africa have fallen day on day. Not sure what this means, possibly just noise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    A non trivial percentage of the Omicron hospitalised end up in ICU....


    "About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"


    (Bloomberg)
    Is has to be quite serious for someone to be admitted to hospital. If only 7.6% are in ICU that doesn't sound too bad. I'm not dismissing all this but quite a bit of hysteria seems to be around.
    I guess you go to hospital if you need oxygen? Or you look VERY close to needing it

    You go to ICU if you need ventilation, or you have some other Covid-related organ failure

    None of them sound like a lot of fun
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
    Yes, but what we don't know is how the jabs do against severe disease and death re Omicron. We have assumptions, is all
    There's proof that the mode of aciton which significantly reduces severe disease and death vs delta with 2 jabs, is even stronger when you have 3 jabs vs delta.


    We don't have proof this paint will make that wall red, but it's made every wall we ever used it on look red. It's pretty damn sure.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.

    I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:

    - full lockdown now
    - full lockdown boxing day

    OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun :)
    Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
    Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
    Och, you're a kill joy. Hot alcoholic drinks and lots of self indulgent food. What's not to like?
    Just think the birds deserve as much a party as me :)

    I am interested in the relationships between the Council and Underbelly, etc. Also getting rid of the Georgian masonry and some lovely mature trees.
    Exactly so.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    So this suggests that Omicron is already well present in the UK and ....... someone is feeling 'rough'. I felt rough after the first vaccine.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517



    PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔

    In May it was a tie in both votes (within 0.1%) and seats - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Bristol_City_Council_election . If the Greens get tactical anti-Labour votes from the Tories they might do it, but higher GE turnout and incumbency bonus will probably hold them off.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585

    Just for fun, but covid cases in South Africa have fallen day on day. Not sure what this means, possibly just noise.

    They rose day on day this time last week, so an excellent sign.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,984
    Omnium said:

    Liberals now clear fav for N Shropshire.

    A huge swing.. I can't find a bet there though beyond my few pounds (15) on Labour.

    This really is a by-election beyind my betting competance. I'm leaving it alone now.
    That reversal was bound to happen after my one and only bet on a Conservative win….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
    Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.

    Farage MP within the year, PM within three years

    *chilled spines everywhere*
    So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,165
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured

    Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
    Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym

    I am nihilistic but chirpy
    @Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.

    We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.

    I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
  • I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
    I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.

    Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    sarissa said:

    Omnium said:

    Liberals now clear fav for N Shropshire.

    A huge swing.. I can't find a bet there though beyond my few pounds (15) on Labour.

    This really is a by-election beyind my betting competance. I'm leaving it alone now.
    That reversal was bound to happen after my one and only bet on a Conservative win….
    Excellent sacrifice on your part to take one for the team. Your karma will rise, and you will be reincarnated as something cushy and long-lived such as a tapeworm in an elephant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:
    I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.

    What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer
    Horrible. Sympathies

    Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped

    Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week

    Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?

    GRRRRRR
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
    I'm guessing that he has a positive test? "Has covid" is different from has covid symptoms, and it would be pretty bloody odd not to get a test in light of other peoples' results
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,739
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured

    Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
    Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym

    I am nihilistic but chirpy
    @Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.

    We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.

    I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
    That is actually a truly excellent idea!

    THANKYOU

  • IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    If you are going to be any use there, you’d need a car anyway.

    The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.
    Would have been totally avoidable if Paterson had been willing to lay low and take his punishment.

    And so instead of going to the HoL after the next election he is disgraced.

    Did any of the Conservatives involved consider the risk/reward ratio of going all-in to protect Paterson.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    So this suggests that Omicron is already well present in the UK and ....... someone is feeling 'rough'. I felt rough after the first vaccine.
    Yebbut, the stigma of covid.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,585

    Leon said:
    I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.

    What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
    It really doesn';t make any difference though does it.

    If it spreads as quick as they say and infects everyone regardless of jabs, then absent of a national house arrest order from 10pm tonight, it's going to sweep through in very short order regardless of what people expect. Everything going on now is just window dressing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    Close up the casement, draw the blind,
    Shut out that stealing moon,
    She wears too much the guise she wore
    Before our lutes were strewn
    With years-deep dust, and names we read
    On a white stone were hewn.

    Step not forth on the dew-dashed lawn
    To view the Lady's Chair,
    Immense Orion's glittering form,
    The Less and Greater Bear:
    Stay in; to such sights we were drawn
    When faded ones were fair.

    Brush not the bough for midnight scents
    That come forth lingeringly,
    And wake the same sweet sentiments
    They breathed to you and me
    When living seemed a laugh, and love
    All it was said to be.

    Within the common lamp-lit room
    Prison my eyes and thought;
    Let dingy details crudely loom,
    Mechanic speech be wrought:
    Too fragrant was Life's early bloom,
    Too tart the fuit it brought!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    dr_spyn said:

    On topic. Cut through? Anecdotal -

    My Green Party friend in Bristol says

    2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown
    2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson

    She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.

    Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆

    PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
    Had thought Greens were picking up votes from the disgruntled Corbynites in Bristol West. It would be quite an earthquake if Thangam Debbonaire was defenestrated, Labour had 62% of the vote, the Greens 24%. The Lib Dems didn't bother to field a candidate in Dec 2019, some may have voted Green rather than Labour.
    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2021
    TimS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
    Relative mildness of Omicron is irrelevant. People will get mild versions of Omicron that wouldn't have got symptomatic Covid at all under previous strains. They don't matter. What matters is the absolute number of serious cases under Omicron compared with previous versions. AFAIK we don't know the answer to that yet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
    Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Leon said:
    I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.

    What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
    The SA hospital data suggests it is not markedly milder than Delta. Admissions tripled in a week, they are still rising, and the stats tend to get back-filled so they get worse

    It may be somewhat "milder" than Delta, whatever that really means, but it won't be enough to outweigh its obvious growth advantage AND its breakthrough capacity
  • Currently watching a panto in Sunderland. Mask usage very low once you’re past the mask gestapo at the door.

    Fucking lawless Mackems. Went to the Greenwich Panto on Wednesday, mask usage near universal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
    Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
    5-10% of lives if it crashes health systems?

    I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    Just thinking that if we could all just rock up at the pub at 9am instead of going to work first then our Christmas drinks needn't have been cancelled.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517



    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.

    Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376

    Currently watching a panto in Sunderland. Mask usage very low once you’re past the mask gestapo at the door.

    Thought they were playing Plymouth tomorrow.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    maaarsh said:

    Just for fun, but covid cases in South Africa have fallen day on day. Not sure what this means, possibly just noise.

    They rose day on day this time last week, so an excellent sign.
    It does seem quite odd.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,272

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    And that is why, if we need to have a next step, then it is to compulsory shield the unvaccinated uninfected (this may include unboostered old and other nuances) to protect the NHS for the rest of us, whilst Omicron is given a little time to work its way through the better protected.

    We are driving for herd immunity and we want to get there fast but intact - we don't our brakes to fail and have to steer it to a halt from 140 (well maybe Dura_Ace does).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer
    That's tough. Hoping that you get your treatments soon.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,537
    A whispered report from the front:

    For those who live a little, the sentiment is much more with party-going Boris (shame it was a year too early) than others.

    Sadly, the vast majority are both boring and strikingly authoritarian.

    What is the plan? How many more Christmases?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
    Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
    You're falling into a logical fallacy.

    Just because only 1% are threatened doesn't mean you know whether any individual is in the 1% or not. You can never know that.

    I have young friends pre-vaccines who ended up in ICU, but none post-vaccines. If someone is "feeling rough" post-vaccines they could have been in that 1% pre-vaccines.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
    I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.

    Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
    "I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".

    You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    Won't be on here for long, just here to admit that I've seen the reported leak of the latest Covid advice in the Graun this evening, what's left of my confidence has evaporated and I've joined @Leon in full catastrophe mode.

    Gone to visit Mum this weekend and thank God I didn't leave it any longer. I don't think we'll even make it to Christmas at this rate before the panic snowballs totally out of control and the Government puts us back into lockdown for the rest of the Winter.

    I'm pencilling in the premiere for the all-star production of "Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives IV - The Omicron Factor" for Saturday 18th November. Such fun.
  • Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
    Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.

    Farage MP within the year, PM within three years

    *chilled spines everywhere*
    So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
    He "nearly" won Thanet South in 2015, getting 32.4%.
    In 2010 he got 17.4% in Buckingham
    8.1% at the 2006 Bromley & Chislehurst by-election
    5.0% in 2005 in South Thanet
    7.8% in 2001 in Bexhill & Battle
    5.7% in 1997 in Salisbury
    and
    1.7% in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,165
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured

    Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
    Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym

    I am nihilistic but chirpy
    @Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.

    We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.

    I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
    That is actually a truly excellent idea!

    THANKYOU

    Don't book bags or seats, just the base price, so you have a booking secured. You can add the other stuff later. I'm off to France soon, then Italy in Feb and I'm about to add Austria in-between, in Jan.

    Austria's relaxation announcement means that that destination has suddenly gone from impossible to visit to the best place to visit. I've found that the angle is to go asap after a decision to relax as this holds usually for some time (until the particular gov panics again).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    Leon said:
    I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.

    What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
    The SA hospital data suggests it is not markedly milder than Delta. Admissions tripled in a week, they are still rising, and the stats tend to get back-filled so they get worse

    It may be somewhat "milder" than Delta, whatever that really means, but it won't be enough to outweigh its obvious growth advantage AND its breakthrough capacity
    Has the ratio changed? I’ve spoken to you before about focusing on absolute numbers. Has the ratio of hosps to cases changed markedly? Or is the increase in hosps merely a lagged function of the increase in cases?

    It’s the ratio you need to focus on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    You make a good point. So, on that note, I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO

    The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle

    In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first


    Lockdown: YES

    Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1

    Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks

    UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000

    UK deaths in the same period: 49,000
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
    Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.

    Farage MP within the year, PM within three years

    *chilled spines everywhere*
    I've also predicted the return of Laurence Fox, previously on this website. All of a sudden his mocking of the lockdown and the measures introduced by the government may not be seen as such a bad move.

    If you look up his interview with Farage on GB News, Farage says to Fox that he may have gone over the top on twitter but it never did Trump any harm. Farage is getting old and has achieved everything he wanted to in politics. Fox is building something new.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    Eabhal said:

    A whispered report from the front:

    For those who live a little, the sentiment is much more with party-going Boris (shame it was a year too early) than others.

    Sadly, the vast majority are both boring and strikingly authoritarian.

    What is the plan? How many more Christmases?

    There’s a few of us in the not-boring and libertarian category.

    Just arrived home after a day of watching live sport, and it was awesome.

    Fingers crossed Lewis is still two-thirds of a second quicker than Max tomorrow, when it counts. He’s getting the magic engine overnight too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    darkage said:

    We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.

    Yeah that bit about Mary being a Virgin is a bit unbelievable but we just go along with it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.

    Let's hope not.
    We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.

    The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
    Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.

    Farage MP within the year, PM within three years

    *chilled spines everywhere*
    So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
    He "nearly" won Thanet South in 2015, getting 32.4%.
    In 2010 he got 17.4% in Buckingham
    8.1% at the 2006 Bromley & Chislehurst by-election
    5.0% in 2005 in South Thanet
    7.8% in 2001 in Bexhill & Battle
    5.7% in 1997 in Salisbury
    and
    1.7% in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election.
    One more heave!

    Interpret that however you want.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing, I can't find the thread but I definitely remember predicting the UK peak at 200k cases on January 9th ;)

    Today's omicron doubling estimate from the known UK figures remains 2 days.
    Tommorow's target for known UK cases is 1788 (523 new known infections)

    I will dig the thread out and we can revist.

    As I am always right everyone can rest easy that cases will top out at 65k(ish)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    For the anti lockdowners, who’s gonna be hosting the secret Feb 2022 pb drinks party if the wine bars are shut?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Yes, I think you are right. I’m going to take a break. It’s beyond febrile on here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,376
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Believe me it's better.
  • Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
    Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
    5-10% of lives if it crashes health systems?

    I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
    Everywhere had a high CFR initially because there was sod all testing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured

    Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
    Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym

    I am nihilistic but chirpy
    @Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.

    We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.

    I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
    That is actually a truly excellent idea!

    THANKYOU

    Don't book bags or seats, just the base price, so you have a booking secured. You can add the other stuff later. I'm off to France soon, then Italy in Feb and I'm about to add Austria in-between, in Jan.

    Austria's relaxation announcement means that that destination has suddenly gone from impossible to visit to the best place to visit. I've found that the angle is to go asap after a decision to relax as this holds usually for some time (until the particular gov panics again).
    Yep. I actually did this in the summer. I went to Spain as soon as it opened, and then Athens. They were both fun, the latter was sublime. Athens was empty, yet free. Bliss

    Why shouldn't I do this again? I shall, I need that possibility of escape, at least
  • darkage said:

    We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.

    Yeah that bit about Mary being a Virgin is a bit unbelievable but we just go along with it.
    Christmas 1982: as a 7 year-old, my only acting credit to date was as one of the Three Wise Men, the one wot carried myrrh!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    @Pulpstar

    I went with 65k after bargaining myself down from 68

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3485788

    You went for 200,000 Friday 14th January, 2022 ?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,421
    "Boris Johnson could face leadership challenge if North Shropshire by-election lost, say Tory MPs
    Conservatives ‘discussing whether we still need him’, says backbencher"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-tory-mps-leadership-b1973964.html
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.

    It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
    2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
    Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother

    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
    If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
    Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
    5-10% of lives if it crashes health systems?

    I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
    China as a whole had a CFR of about 5% up until mid April 2020. Then amazingly it fell to less than a two hundredth of that level. It could be that China had far more cases than they let on, or maybe China has extraordinarily brilliant healthcare, or perhaps the figures can not be trusted.

    To give you some idea of how out-there China's figures are since April 2020 China has been doing about ten times better than New Zealand on a case-by-case basis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Believe me it's better.
    This reminds me that the model for the D'Uerberville manor house is en route to the Tank Museum at Bovington from Wool. Wonder when I will see them again. Or the Hardy birthplace.
  • Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer
    Horrible. Sympathies

    Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped

    Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week

    Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?

    GRRRRRR
    It seems for the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer anti-vaxxers are some sort of libertarian hero.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”

    The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.

    We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over
  • I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
    I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.

    Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
    "I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".

    You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
    LOL! 😂

    I was a Remainer and I was convinced to switch sides by a mix of Boris, Gove, @Casino_Royale and @Richard_Tyndall
This discussion has been closed.