Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown 2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Now a case of when Johnson has to break the bad news rather than 'if'.
And when we do lockdown - the next day it will be 'when can you release us from this terrible lockdown?'.
Obviously.....and whatever rules there are, they are too confusing and can i ride a unicycle backwards to the supermakret while singing without wearing a mask....
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
Boris is going to look much older than that in 30 years !
He looks much rougher than that now!
In the next 30 years he will learn how to groom properly. Really?
Where does he get all that extra hair from for a start they’ve given him more sensible hairstyle for sure, the parting of a proper primeminister though HYUFD will bemoan its on left and wonder about purity
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
If you are going to be any use there, you’d need a car anyway.
The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.
Boris is going to look much older than that in 30 years !
No way does Boris have 30 years left in him. From the crime week drugs bust photo op, very clear he'd put every pound back on with interest after his post covid health kick.
I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.
The vaccines are highly worthwhile, I'll be getting the polyvalent one as soon as I'm able - a nice booster also for my Pfizer shares hopefully. But the lockdowns/gov't edicts are indeed not sustainable.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
This pandemic is like one of those classic computer games where each time you get through a level, the next one comes at you twice as fast. Tetris, or block breaker, or space invaders.
So you keep battering the keys faster and faster until the whole thing collapses over you and GAME OVER flashes up on screen. With Omicron we’ve just started that final, too-fast level.
Actually Omicron would be a good name for an arcade game, as would Delta.
I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown 2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
Had thought Greens were picking up votes from the disgruntled Corbynites in Bristol West. It would be quite an earthquake if Thangam Debbonaire was defenestrated, Labour had 62% of the vote, the Greens 24%. The Lib Dems didn't bother to field a candidate in Dec 2019, some may have voted Green rather than Labour.
We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.
Thanks for letting us know about things like this.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
"The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Thousands are dying from treatable illnesses as there is no health care, only covid care.
Thousands have died alone. Millions have lost the best year of their lives. Truly, what a wonderful society we have.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
"The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"
You mean the doubling time doesn't stay static. That repeatedly calling growth exponential is a childish and incorrect simplification? Never!
"The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"
Covid or being led by the worst Prime Minister since records began?
Don’t be too hasty.
Ninety eight thousand years ago we were ruled by Krud the Thud who was clearly worse than Boris, before being run over by mammoths. How he dealt with the outbreak of cold sores of unmerciful death was hugely unpopular, as was his club tax, cave tax, and peace treaty with the French. Boris ain’t at those levels yet.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
I agree with him.
100% agreed. 💯
I won't actively disobey what I am required to do by law. But I will be absolutely livid if the Government extends restictions further by once again applying them collectively to the whole population. If more restrictions are necessary, they should apply to the unvaccinated who are almost solely responsible for keeping us in this mess by their idiotic choice to ignore the only sustainable way out.
So: - rather than closing schools or sending whole year groups home, just send home unvaccinated children - working from home to apply only to the unvaccinated - vaccine passports only whereever venues are restricted, so that the unvaccinated can't get around restrictions by using lateral flow tests - and financial carrots to get vaccinated, and financial sticks to those who choose not to etc, etc
Resolute measures will both isolate those most likely to do the spreading and get the vaccination rate up.
Covid Tax for the unvaccinated like we tax smokers.
£600 per annum NHS poll tax on every adult (ie £50 per month) but zero-rated if you are vaccinated.
Sunak has the mechanism for this by way of the new hypothecated NI from next April.
This pandemic is like one of those classic computer games where each time you get through a level, the next one comes at you twice as fast. Tetris, or block breaker, or space invaders.
So you keep battering the keys faster and faster until the whole thing collapses over you and GAME OVER flashes up on screen. With Omicron we’ve just started that final, too-fast level.
Actually Omicron would be a good name for an arcade game, as would Delta.
Delta was a very popular game on the Commodore 64.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
Yes, but what we don't know is how the jabs do against severe disease and death re Omicron. We have assumptions, is all
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
A non trivial percentage of the Omicron hospitalised end up in ICU....
"About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"
(Bloomberg)
Is has to be quite serious for someone to be admitted to hospital. If only 7.6% are in ICU that doesn't sound too bad. I'm not dismissing all this but quite a bit of hysteria seems to be around.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Your proof is 1 anecdote of someone feeling a bit rough at home not in hospital.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
A non trivial percentage of the Omicron hospitalised end up in ICU....
"About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"
(Bloomberg)
Is has to be quite serious for someone to be admitted to hospital. If only 7.6% are in ICU that doesn't sound too bad. I'm not dismissing all this but quite a bit of hysteria seems to be around.
I guess you go to hospital if you need oxygen? Or you look VERY close to needing it
You go to ICU if you need ventilation, or you have some other Covid-related organ failure
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
We have trials already in that 3 jabs vs omicron is more effective than 2 jabs vs delta.
Yes, but what we don't know is how the jabs do against severe disease and death re Omicron. We have assumptions, is all
There's proof that the mode of aciton which significantly reduces severe disease and death vs delta with 2 jabs, is even stronger when you have 3 jabs vs delta.
We don't have proof this paint will make that wall red, but it's made every wall we ever used it on look red. It's pretty damn sure.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
So this suggests that Omicron is already well present in the UK and ....... someone is feeling 'rough'. I felt rough after the first vaccine.
PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
In May it was a tie in both votes (within 0.1%) and seats - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Bristol_City_Council_election . If the Greens get tactical anti-Labour votes from the Tories they might do it, but higher GE turnout and incumbency bonus will probably hold them off.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2
I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.
He was not reassured
Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym
I am nihilistic but chirpy
@Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.
We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.
I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
A huge swing.. I can't find a bet there though beyond my few pounds (15) on Labour.
This really is a by-election beyind my betting competance. I'm leaving it alone now.
That reversal was bound to happen after my one and only bet on a Conservative win….
Excellent sacrifice on your part to take one for the team. Your karma will rise, and you will be reincarnated as something cushy and long-lived such as a tapeworm in an elephant.
I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.
What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
We both should have been treated ages ago
We are both triple jabbed
No thanks for waiting much longer
Horrible. Sympathies
Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped
Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week
Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
I'm guessing that he has a positive test? "Has covid" is different from has covid symptoms, and it would be pretty bloody odd not to get a test in light of other peoples' results
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2
I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.
He was not reassured
Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym
I am nihilistic but chirpy
@Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.
We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.
I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
If you are going to be any use there, you’d need a car anyway.
The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.
Would have been totally avoidable if Paterson had been willing to lay low and take his punishment.
And so instead of going to the HoL after the next election he is disgraced.
Did any of the Conservatives involved consider the risk/reward ratio of going all-in to protect Paterson.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
So this suggests that Omicron is already well present in the UK and ....... someone is feeling 'rough'. I felt rough after the first vaccine.
I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.
What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
It really doesn';t make any difference though does it.
If it spreads as quick as they say and infects everyone regardless of jabs, then absent of a national house arrest order from 10pm tonight, it's going to sweep through in very short order regardless of what people expect. Everything going on now is just window dressing.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
Close up the casement, draw the blind, Shut out that stealing moon, She wears too much the guise she wore Before our lutes were strewn With years-deep dust, and names we read On a white stone were hewn.
Step not forth on the dew-dashed lawn To view the Lady's Chair, Immense Orion's glittering form, The Less and Greater Bear: Stay in; to such sights we were drawn When faded ones were fair.
Brush not the bough for midnight scents That come forth lingeringly, And wake the same sweet sentiments They breathed to you and me When living seemed a laugh, and love All it was said to be.
Within the common lamp-lit room Prison my eyes and thought; Let dingy details crudely loom, Mechanic speech be wrought: Too fragrant was Life's early bloom, Too tart the fuit it brought!
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown 2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
Had thought Greens were picking up votes from the disgruntled Corbynites in Bristol West. It would be quite an earthquake if Thangam Debbonaire was defenestrated, Labour had 62% of the vote, the Greens 24%. The Lib Dems didn't bother to field a candidate in Dec 2019, some may have voted Green rather than Labour.
More than not bother it was a pact.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
It may well have. He feels “rough”. So do I, several times a year, as a result of other respiratory viruses.
Relative mildness of Omicron is irrelevant. People will get mild versions of Omicron that wouldn't have got symptomatic Covid at all under previous strains. They don't matter. What matters is the absolute number of serious cases under Omicron compared with previous versions. AFAIK we don't know the answer to that yet.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.
What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
The SA hospital data suggests it is not markedly milder than Delta. Admissions tripled in a week, they are still rising, and the stats tend to get back-filled so they get worse
It may be somewhat "milder" than Delta, whatever that really means, but it won't be enough to outweigh its obvious growth advantage AND its breakthrough capacity
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
Just thinking that if we could all just rock up at the pub at 9am instead of going to work first then our Christmas drinks needn't have been cancelled.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
And that is why, if we need to have a next step, then it is to compulsory shield the unvaccinated uninfected (this may include unboostered old and other nuances) to protect the NHS for the rest of us, whilst Omicron is given a little time to work its way through the better protected.
We are driving for herd immunity and we want to get there fast but intact - we don't our brakes to fail and have to steer it to a halt from 140 (well maybe Dura_Ace does).
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
We both should have been treated ages ago
We are both triple jabbed
No thanks for waiting much longer
That's tough. Hoping that you get your treatments soon.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
You're falling into a logical fallacy.
Just because only 1% are threatened doesn't mean you know whether any individual is in the 1% or not. You can never know that.
I have young friends pre-vaccines who ended up in ICU, but none post-vaccines. If someone is "feeling rough" post-vaccines they could have been in that 1% pre-vaccines.
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
"I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".
You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
Won't be on here for long, just here to admit that I've seen the reported leak of the latest Covid advice in the Graun this evening, what's left of my confidence has evaporated and I've joined @Leon in full catastrophe mode.
Gone to visit Mum this weekend and thank God I didn't leave it any longer. I don't think we'll even make it to Christmas at this rate before the panic snowballs totally out of control and the Government puts us back into lockdown for the rest of the Winter.
I'm pencilling in the premiere for the all-star production of "Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives IV - The Omicron Factor" for Saturday 18th November. Such fun.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
He "nearly" won Thanet South in 2015, getting 32.4%. In 2010 he got 17.4% in Buckingham 8.1% at the 2006 Bromley & Chislehurst by-election 5.0% in 2005 in South Thanet 7.8% in 2001 in Bexhill & Battle 5.7% in 1997 in Salisbury and 1.7% in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election.
Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2
I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.
He was not reassured
Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym
I am nihilistic but chirpy
@Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.
We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.
I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
That is actually a truly excellent idea!
THANKYOU
Don't book bags or seats, just the base price, so you have a booking secured. You can add the other stuff later. I'm off to France soon, then Italy in Feb and I'm about to add Austria in-between, in Jan.
Austria's relaxation announcement means that that destination has suddenly gone from impossible to visit to the best place to visit. I've found that the angle is to go asap after a decision to relax as this holds usually for some time (until the particular gov panics again).
I am slightly concerned ontop of the old #10 party situation, that the narrative is engrained into people's mind that this is mild....I am getting vibes of people's reaction to original outbreak from Wuhan, yeah but they are all smokers who live in the smog and eat fried crap, we are all much healthier, so it will just be like a bit of flu.
What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
The SA hospital data suggests it is not markedly milder than Delta. Admissions tripled in a week, they are still rising, and the stats tend to get back-filled so they get worse
It may be somewhat "milder" than Delta, whatever that really means, but it won't be enough to outweigh its obvious growth advantage AND its breakthrough capacity
Has the ratio changed? I’ve spoken to you before about focusing on absolute numbers. Has the ratio of hosps to cases changed markedly? Or is the increase in hosps merely a lagged function of the increase in cases?
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
You make a good point. So, on that note, I reckon its time to play PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
I've also predicted the return of Laurence Fox, previously on this website. All of a sudden his mocking of the lockdown and the measures introduced by the government may not be seen as such a bad move.
If you look up his interview with Farage on GB News, Farage says to Fox that he may have gone over the top on twitter but it never did Trump any harm. Farage is getting old and has achieved everything he wanted to in politics. Fox is building something new.
We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.
Yeah that bit about Mary being a Virgin is a bit unbelievable but we just go along with it.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
So he'll break the habit of a lifetime and win a Westminster seat...O...K...?
He "nearly" won Thanet South in 2015, getting 32.4%. In 2010 he got 17.4% in Buckingham 8.1% at the 2006 Bromley & Chislehurst by-election 5.0% in 2005 in South Thanet 7.8% in 2001 in Bexhill & Battle 5.7% in 1997 in Salisbury and 1.7% in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election.
Comments
Today's omicron doubling estimate from the known UK figures remains 2 days.
Tommorow's target for known UK cases is 1788 (523 new known infections)
Will Sunak walk?
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
In the next 30 years he will learn how to groom properly. Really?
Where does he get all that extra hair from for a start
they’ve given him more sensible hairstyle for sure, the parting of a proper primeminister though HYUFD will bemoan its on left and wonder about purity
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.
So you keep battering the keys faster and faster until the whole thing collapses over you and GAME OVER flashes up on screen. With Omicron we’ve just started that final, too-fast level.
Actually Omicron would be a good name for an arcade game, as would Delta.
Everyone: It is behind you...
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
"I've just seen the latest Omicron forecasts from Professor Neil Ferguson. By mid January, there could be 387 million cases of Omicron in the UK."
The latest SA data is in. Growth is definitely slowing, quite dramatically. No surge in deaths, yet
"#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 83,515 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 19,018 new cases, which represents a 22.8% positivity rate. A further 20 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 90,080 to date. See more here: https://nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-10-december-2021/"
https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469400938964307969?s=20
However, a caveat:
"The National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) has recently upgraded its IT systems, aimed at ensuring improved data security. This upgrade has resulted in delays in reporting of the results of COVID-19 tests by some public sector laboratories onto the system. (1 of 3)"
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
We both should have been treated ages ago
We are both triple jabbed
No thanks for waiting much longer
Thousands have died alone. Millions have lost the best year of their lives. Truly, what a wonderful society we have.
Ninety eight thousand years ago we were ruled by Krud the Thud who was clearly worse than Boris, before being run over by mammoths. How he dealt with the outbreak of cold sores of unmerciful death was hugely unpopular, as was his club tax, cave tax, and peace treaty with the French. Boris ain’t at those levels yet.
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
Victoria Derbyshire
@vicderbyshire
My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
I am interested in the relationships between the Council and Underbelly, etc. Also getting rid of the Georgian masonry and some lovely mature trees.
OK.
You go to ICU if you need ventilation, or you have some other Covid-related organ failure
None of them sound like a lot of fun
We don't have proof this paint will make that wall red, but it's made every wall we ever used it on look red. It's pretty damn sure.
We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.
I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
What if it isn't, or that it is but not dramatically, especially with triple dosage of the vaccine.
Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped
Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week
Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?
GRRRRRR
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
THANKYOU
And so instead of going to the HoL after the next election he is disgraced.
Did any of the Conservatives involved consider the risk/reward ratio of going all-in to protect Paterson.
If it spreads as quick as they say and infects everyone regardless of jabs, then absent of a national house arrest order from 10pm tonight, it's going to sweep through in very short order regardless of what people expect. Everything going on now is just window dressing.
Shut out that stealing moon,
She wears too much the guise she wore
Before our lutes were strewn
With years-deep dust, and names we read
On a white stone were hewn.
Step not forth on the dew-dashed lawn
To view the Lady's Chair,
Immense Orion's glittering form,
The Less and Greater Bear:
Stay in; to such sights we were drawn
When faded ones were fair.
Brush not the bough for midnight scents
That come forth lingeringly,
And wake the same sweet sentiments
They breathed to you and me
When living seemed a laugh, and love
All it was said to be.
Within the common lamp-lit room
Prison my eyes and thought;
Let dingy details crudely loom,
Mechanic speech be wrought:
Too fragrant was Life's early bloom,
Too tart the fuit it brought!
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
It may be somewhat "milder" than Delta, whatever that really means, but it won't be enough to outweigh its obvious growth advantage AND its breakthrough capacity
I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
I bloody love PB.
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
We are driving for herd immunity and we want to get there fast but intact - we don't our brakes to fail and have to steer it to a halt from 140 (well maybe Dura_Ace does).
For those who live a little, the sentiment is much more with party-going Boris (shame it was a year too early) than others.
Sadly, the vast majority are both boring and strikingly authoritarian.
What is the plan? How many more Christmases?
Just because only 1% are threatened doesn't mean you know whether any individual is in the 1% or not. You can never know that.
I have young friends pre-vaccines who ended up in ICU, but none post-vaccines. If someone is "feeling rough" post-vaccines they could have been in that 1% pre-vaccines.
You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
Gone to visit Mum this weekend and thank God I didn't leave it any longer. I don't think we'll even make it to Christmas at this rate before the panic snowballs totally out of control and the Government puts us back into lockdown for the rest of the Winter.
I'm pencilling in the premiere for the all-star production of "Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives IV - The Omicron Factor" for Saturday 18th November. Such fun.
In 2010 he got 17.4% in Buckingham
8.1% at the 2006 Bromley & Chislehurst by-election
5.0% in 2005 in South Thanet
7.8% in 2001 in Bexhill & Battle
5.7% in 1997 in Salisbury
and
1.7% in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election.
Austria's relaxation announcement means that that destination has suddenly gone from impossible to visit to the best place to visit. I've found that the angle is to go asap after a decision to relax as this holds usually for some time (until the particular gov panics again).
It’s the ratio you need to focus on.
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000
If you look up his interview with Farage on GB News, Farage says to Fox that he may have gone over the top on twitter but it never did Trump any harm. Farage is getting old and has achieved everything he wanted to in politics. Fox is building something new.
Just arrived home after a day of watching live sport, and it was awesome.
Fingers crossed Lewis is still two-thirds of a second quicker than Max tomorrow, when it counts. He’s getting the magic engine overnight too.
Interpret that however you want.