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The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFD said:

    Confirmed list of Tory rebels who will vote against the Plan B measures next week, thus requiring Boris to have Labour votes to get them through.

    • Steve Baker
    • Ben Bradley
    • Brendan Clarke-Smith
    • Graham Brady
    • Philip Davies
    • Richard Drax
    • Simon Jupp
    • Stephen McPartland
    • John Redwood
    • Greg Smith
    • Dehenna Davison
    • Marcus Fysh
    • Gary Sambrook
    • Pauline Latham
    • William Wragg
    • Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    • Iain Duncan Smith
    • Christopher Chope
    • Craig Tracey
    • Robert Syms
    • Anthony Mangnall
    • Greg Clark
    • Esther McVey
    • Liam Fox
    • David Davis
    • Mark Jenkinson
    • Mark Harper
    • Darren Henry
    • Steve Brine
    • Craig Mackinlay
    • Simon Fell
    • Andrew Bowie
    • David Warburton
    • Siobhan Baillie
    • David Jones
    • Tom Randall
    • Ben Spencer
    • Andrew Rosindell
    • Charles Walker
    • Douglas Ross
    • Karl McCartney
    • Anne Marie Morris
    • Johnny Mercer
    • Tom Tugendhat
    • Richard Fuller
    • Giles Watling
    • Desmond Swayne
    • Andrew Bridgen
    • Andrew Lewer
    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1469257084285997057?s=20

    What a list of Christmas turkeys.
  • Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omi anecdate:


    Victoria Derbyshire
    @vicderbyshire
    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?

    The vaccine has done the job.
    For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.

    Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
    Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
    My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.

    If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
    and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses

    and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care

    what a wonderful society to live in
    Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
    I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec

    My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365

    We both should have been treated ages ago

    We are both triple jabbed

    No thanks for waiting much longer
    Horrible. Sympathies

    Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped

    Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week

    Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?

    GRRRRRR
    It seems for the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer anti-vaxxers are some sort of libertarian hero.
    Libertarianism includes paying for the consequences of your choices.

    She seems to forget that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Luckily the cricket is starting in a couple of hours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Alistair said:

    @Pulpstar

    I went with 65k after bargaining myself down from 68

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3485788

    You went for 200,000 Friday 14th January, 2022 ?

    Yep !
  • I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
    I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.

    Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
    "I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".

    You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
    LOL! 😂

    I was a Remainer and I was convinced to switch sides by a mix of Boris, Gove, @Casino_Royale and @Richard_Tyndall
    And @HYUFD? :lol:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    No; thanks: not familiar with it; have promply found a promising-looking acount and have downloaded.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497



    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.

    Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
    I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂

    I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.

    So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Luckily the cricket is starting in a couple of hours.
    In 3hrs, we will all be super depressed after the inevitable collapse. Its the hope that kills you.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Taz said:

    RobD said:

    UK releases updated risk assessment for Omicron https://t.co/6pZWZ3vWBx

    More narrative building...all red lights flashing, how dangerous is it, insufficient data.

    We are all going to die?
    One day
    You're going to need to be a bit more specific.
  • I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.

    Wrong again

    You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.

    Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
    Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
    I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.

    Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
    "I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".

    You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
    LOL! 😂

    I was a Remainer and I was convinced to switch sides by a mix of Boris, Gove, @Casino_Royale and @Richard_Tyndall
    And @HYUFD? :lol:
    You mean he backed Remain which was a convincing argument for Leave? 😂
  • rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    RobD said:

    UK releases updated risk assessment for Omicron https://t.co/6pZWZ3vWBx

    More narrative building...all red lights flashing, how dangerous is it, insufficient data.

    We are all going to die?
    One day
    You're going to need to be a bit more specific.
    If we're all going to die one day, then it probably makes sense to take precautions on that day.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Apparently Johnson has refused to accept the resignation of his Head of Comms who, it turns out, was actually at the party that he has been briefing never took place.

    Yes I know we say this a lot recently but you really couldn’t make this up could you?

    https://twitter.com/SiobhanBenita/status/1469362416962228225
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited December 2021
    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. Perhaps dealing with that thought rather than embarking on political point scoring might be a more healthy strategy?
  • Away from Covid, any one else seeing value in e/w bets on Bottas and Perez, given how the first corner could go on Sunday?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited December 2021

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
  • dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    That's a good point.

    I have no idea how omicron will go, but quite frankly I barely care anymore either.

    If it creates a March 2020 situation then I will still oppose lockdowns or restrictions. I will still say "enough is enough".

    This is nature. We've done the vaccines. If some people have reached the natural end of their lives due to this virus then that's that, we need to keep living our lives for everyone else who survives though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
    It was me who mentioned Hardy?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021
    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

  • Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals

    Guardian
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829


    Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals

    Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Timmycool said:

    Away from Covid, any one else seeing value in e/w bets on Bottas and Perez, given how the first corner could go on Sunday?

    Not even just first corner.

    Looks like Max wants to 2 stop, so Lewis would be wise to mirror strategy as long as he's ahead. Which leaves the door open for Bottas on the otherwise superior 1 stop.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    FT WEEKEND: Probe into flat deepens PM’s woes #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469419969054183424/photo/1
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2021
    Has this been posted? Good overview, I think, of the state of play for Omicron

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351577987260419
  • It is obviously small sample and very early, but not a single identified case of Omicron has been hospitalised yet in the UK.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    NEW: Boris Johnson is facing a growing Tory mutiny as the party’s newbies unite with old guard MPs to warn the PM to “get a grip”.

    Five MPs from the 2019 intake are now thought to have written letters to demand Mr Johnson quits.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17004710/tory-mps-demand-boris-johnson-quits/
  • FF43 said:

    Has this been posted? Good overview, I think, of the state of play for Omicron

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351577987260419

    A vanishingly small number of Omicron cases are in people who recently travelled abroad (any country) or had a known contact with a traveller.

    Evidence of 2 things:
    1) ongoing community transmission
    2) we have effectively interrupted infections entering the country
  • dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    That's harsh. It is not a narrative being "pushed". Honest scientists are unnerved by scary data. And it is scary, at least in part. And it is just maths


    "But even a mild disease can put health services under huge pressure. The London based epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski notes that a fast moving virus can actually lead to more deaths than a more deadly one.

    "He notes that if a virus increases in transmissibility by 50 per cent, but the mortality rate stays the same, it would still lead to more deaths after a month than if the mortality rate alone jumped by 50 per cent. This is because the pool of people with the virus would be far greater.

    "His hypothetical scenario shows that - from a base of 10,000 initial infections - a virus that was 50 percent faster would cause 978 deaths after a month. This compares to just 193 from a variant with 50 percent more deadly.

    "And this is what the Government in the UK is worried about - a tsunami of cases, whether mild or severe, hitting the NHS at its busiest time of year".


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/09/charts-ministers-think-could-hit-million-omicron-cases-day-christmas/
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Just for fun, but covid cases in South Africa have fallen day on day. Not sure what this means, possibly just noise.

    They rose day on day this time last week, so an excellent sign.
    It does seem quite odd.
    50% growth on prior day, same day this last week. This time, down 15%.
  • It is obviously small sample and very early, but not a single identified case of Omicron has been hospitalised yet in the UK.

    Dont the vast majority of hospitalisations happen in the second or third week post infection?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    I don't think there will be a lockdown before the 18th for the simple reason that that's the earliest realistic date you could shut schools (and when most of them shut anyway)

    What we need to make sure of is that those drunken fascists on Sage don't impose a last-minute lockdown in the new year despite Omicron not having killed anyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Pulpstar said:
    Does he have 64gb of RAM now?
  • dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.

    Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Incidentally, anyone else find the O2 connect the disconnected advert with robots sneaking in to homes to install internet a bit.... creepy?

    I know 2 people without the internet, and it's a very definitely choice. Hard to believe the number of people with homes without internet against their will is above a statistical rounding error.
  • ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Does he have 64gb of RAM now?
    I hope no BSOD.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    This is a really excellent thread by the brilliant @LevinsLaw on the somewhat anoraky, but highly topical, question of the relevance of s.73 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 to the legality of Downing St parties. https://twitter.com/LevinsLaw/status/1469367877157466113
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:
    Can't be too careful.....given how much of a kick in the balls I had after each Moderna, I can't imagine 10 lots of it at once.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. Perhaps dealing with that thought rather than embarking on political point scoring might be a more healthy strategy?

    Possibly, but it sounds really boring,
  • Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Does he have 64gb of RAM now?
    I hope no BSOD.
    That only comes if you are syringed in your ASUS.
  • FF43 said:

    Has this been posted? Good overview, I think, of the state of play for Omicron

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351577987260419

    Its clearly from limited data but ...

    ... that omicron curve is already flattening.

    We will see what happens in the next week.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Must be a hypothetical, can't imagine she gets many invites.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    That's the best news in months. Who wants a c*** like her at a Christmas party?
  • Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Has she moved to "WE MUST LOCKDOWN YESTERDAY" yet?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ** Exclusive in Saturday’s Daily Telegraph **

    Six MPs could quit Government in Covid restrictions rebellion in a series of ‘Super Tuesday’ votes in the Commons


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/10/six-mps-could-quit-members-government-covid-restrictions/
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Does he have 64gb of RAM now?
    I hope no BSOD.
    That only comes if you are syringed in your ASUS.
    Celebrities all seem to want to have it in their BIOS.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.

    Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
    No chance. Boris is a trolly, Gove has the zeal of a true believer and everyone else in the room is just hoping it all sticks to them two.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Does he have 64gb of RAM now?
    I hope no BSOD.
    That only comes if you are syringed in your ASUS.
    Celebrities all seem to want to have it in their BIOS.
    That's the core of the issue.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
    It was me who mentioned Hardy?
    Absolutely. I wouldn’t have mentioned Pugin without your comment from Hardy.
  • maaarsh said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.

    Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
    No chance. Boris is a trolly, Gove has the zeal of a true believer and everyone else in the room is just hoping it all sticks to them two.
    We need Javid and Sunak to have enough balls to say no.

    I'm not sure they do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
    It was me who mentioned Hardy?
    Absolutely. I wouldn’t have mentioned Pugin without your comment from Hardy.
    How are you finding the social commentary of contrasts?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.

    Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
    No chance. Boris is a trolly, Gove has the zeal of a true believer and everyone else in the room is just hoping it all sticks to them two.
    We need Javid and Sunak to have enough balls to say no.

    I'm not sure they do.
    If they did, the time was Wednesday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    😬 not what you want from a party loyalist, really https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1469392787468857344/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    ydoethur said:

    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

    Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
  • maaarsh said:

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Must be a hypothetical, can't imagine she gets many invites.
    You mean she's not the life of the party?

    https://xkcd.com/2355/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Pulpstar said:
    He’ll need a cigarette.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

    Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
    They could win every single Labour voter and it wouldn't help.

    What they need are Tory switchers.

    Surely a message of 'we probably can't win but for us and send a message' would suffice for that?
  • And, here we go...


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    2m
    TIMES: New curbs to slow virus #TomorrowsPapersToday


    ===

    It's like Groundhog Day with pineapples.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Too late Christina, we had ours yesterday.
  • TimS said:

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Too late Christina, we had ours yesterday.
    Criminal. :smiley:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
  • maaarsh said:

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Must be a hypothetical, can't imagine she gets many invites.
    You mean she's not the life of the party?

    https://xkcd.com/2355/
    The OR specialists xmas party is an absolute ball.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

    Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
    They could win every single Labour voter and it wouldn't help.

    What they need are Tory switchers.

    Surely a message of 'we probably can't win but for us and send a message' would suffice for that?
    The Tories are repelling sufficient voters to win, it’s just a matter of who gets them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    “You can shove your cheese up your arse”. Gogglebox verdict on Downing Street parties seems fairly clear.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1469423414343614475
  • According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    I'm doubtful of these suggestions that South Africa has much more acquired immunity than the UK.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    IanB2 said:

    Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”

    The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.

    We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over

    An interesting message. Unless an important bit is missing here, it fails to deal with the problem that at NS the anti Tory vote should be nicely split between Labour, who came second last time, and LDs, who last time came an unimpressive third, and who the media bubble think are entitled to win. The Tories could just scrape home with about 38% of the vote.

  • maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue.
    We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
    I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
    But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.

    The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.

    But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
    We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.

    Bleak.
    Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.

    Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
    No chance. Boris is a trolly, Gove has the zeal of a true believer and everyone else in the room is just hoping it all sticks to them two.
    We need Javid and Sunak to have enough balls to say no.

    I'm not sure they do.
    If they did, the time was Wednesday.
    Why is Gove involved? Pretty sure I read in S Times a week or two ago that he had been removed from covid crisis meetings as he was now Harrying the North minister and not Cabinet Office (Steve Barclay is in that job now)???

    Maybe Johnson forgot and just let Mikey MDA turn up?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?

    Sorry - but no.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    SA hospital figures are notoriously poorly collated. They regularly end up back filing stats weeks after the fact.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited December 2021
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”

    The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.

    We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over

    An interesting message. Unless an important bit is missing here, it fails to deal with the problem that at NS the anti Tory vote should be nicely split between Labour, who came second last time, and LDs, who last time came an unimpressive third, and who the media bubble think are entitled to win. The Tories could just scrape home with about 38% of the vote.

    He does say that Labour can’t win, in the rest of the article. He also makes the point that some in Labour would rather the Tories, and hence the clown, held on.
  • Mail:


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    He got his facts wrong about the population of South Africa: it's 60 million not 40 million.
  • TimS said:

    I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.

    Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.

    I think the Stratton video gives the impression of a bunch of giggling posh prats playing at government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    ydoethur said:

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?

    Sorry - but no.
    What's the openly fascistic organisation?

    I have my doubts about Independent SAGE but I wouldn't call them that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
  • So. Failing to deliver boosters after three months rather than six could mean a 2022 new year three month lockdown.

    That's on you JCVI.

    I think?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021

    So. Failing to deliver boosters after three months rather than six could mean a 2022 new year three month lockdown.

    That's on you JCVI.

    I think?

    Not doing the kids in the summer definitely is. And there insistence on dragging their feet for months, before reluctantly saying well a few people in special cases should get one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for the @DailyMailUK

    📈6pt Labour lead

    🌳Con 33 (-5)
    🌹Lab 39 (+2)
    🔶LDM 9 (=)
    🎗️SNP 5 (+1)
    🌍Grn 4 (-1)
    ⬜️Other 9 (+2)

    2,118 UK adults, 9-10 Dec

    (Changes from 3-5 Dec) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1469426058038554627/photo/1
  • ydoethur said:

    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

    There are direct trains from Birmingham, Wrexham and Chester to Gobowen (Oswestry) and it's pretty easy to change at Shrewsbury for Wem/Whitchurch.

    Based on the evidence of twitter the lib Dems have been sending activists from all across GB.

    I expect them to narrowly pull it off and have come round to that view in the past few weeks. 40% could even be enough for them and additional labour tactical votes could just be the icing on the cake.

    I don't think unfavourable demography is an issue as this is a free hit by election on the Tories/Johnson and can see the seat reverting to a safe tory seat at the next GE.

    I don't think there is anything to lose for the lib dems in going for it even though I think this by election won't necessarily have a lasting impact or even directly lead to the downfall of Johnson.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    edited December 2021
    TimS said:

    I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.

    Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.

    Yes, if they said sorry each time they were caught red handed instead of taking us for fools they would still be in the lead in the polls.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    FF43 said:

    Has this been posted? Good overview, I think, of the state of play for Omicron

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351577987260419

    Yes, It's obviously extremely infectious if you've not had a booster, not as bad if you've had one, especially if it was recent. Jury still out on hospitalisation and death but some cause for hope there/
  • maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.

    SAGE will get their lockdown.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    .

    TimS said:

    I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.

    Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.

    I think the Stratton video gives the impression of a bunch of giggling posh prats playing at government.
    I’ll bet all of us here can name in 5 seconds flat at least three people we’ve worked with or know in real life that you’d rather have round the table than the wallies we get lumbered with. The biggest sickness of UK politics post Ali Campbell is the disproportionate amount of journalists and PR specialists we’ve had at the wheel of power. Then and 20-something spads. Who are rarely spectacular but well connected.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
    Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?

    Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
    Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
    I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.

    And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.

    I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
    It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
    That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.

    Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
    Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
    Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
    Ah, you're missing the point, rather.

    I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
    When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?

    The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.

    If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
    Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
    It was me who mentioned Hardy?
    Absolutely. I wouldn’t have mentioned Pugin without your comment from Hardy.
    How are you finding the social commentary of contrasts?
    Too tired just now, but have saved it to read properly tomorrow. printed out beside my keyboard. I'm interested in Ruskin ans have seen plenty of Pugin buildings.
  • Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    They are totally fecked imho.

    Loyal Tories will sit on their hands.
  • Labour are up to around 40% in a few polls now, suggesting they have re-built the 2017 coalition.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    another 6 point lead for Labour.

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1469426058038554627

    never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake.
  • Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    Probably could have survived one of partygate or a split over whether to lockdown, but not both in the week before the poll.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Scrooge has arrived a week or so early.



    Prof. Christina Pagel
    @chrischirp

    5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
    Sorry - but no.

    Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?

    Sorry - but no.
    What's the openly fascistic organisation?

    I have my doubts about Independent SAGE but I wouldn't call them that.
    ISage want to lock us all up for ever regardless of circumstances, and every time their information proves wrong they dispute the facts.

    I'm content calling them fascists.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.

    SAGE will get their lockdown.
    The non boostered are under 50 without underlying conditions- if they're not obese, their hospital odds are negligible.

    Last January it was ~100% unvaccinated. We have every reason to expect a significantly better outcome.
This discussion has been closed.