They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
5-10% of lives if it crashes health systems?
I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
Everywhere had a high CFR initially because there was sod all testing.
Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2
I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.
He was not reassured
Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
Mate, if I'm making jokes about "everyone dying" it is quite obvious I am chilled. I've just been to the gym
I am nihilistic but chirpy
@Leon why not book cheapo flights every month Jan, thru June, would probably cost you less that £600 in total and then you have an escape route available from this wretched place at short notice - even if you don't actually use the flights? I was thinking about what you said earlier about being trapped and I felt it in lockdown too.
We all need something in our diaries to look forward to.
I suspect that international travel will get easier due to countries realising that the Omicron is everywhere anyway. See the Swiss removing quarantine and Austria about to allow travel again (with no prior testing for the vaccinated).
That is actually a truly excellent idea!
THANKYOU
Don't book bags or seats, just the base price, so you have a booking secured. You can add the other stuff later. I'm off to France soon, then Italy in Feb and I'm about to add Austria in-between, in Jan.
Austria's relaxation announcement means that that destination has suddenly gone from impossible to visit to the best place to visit. I've found that the angle is to go asap after a decision to relax as this holds usually for some time (until the particular gov panics again).
Yep. I actually did this in the summer. I went to Spain as soon as it opened, and then Athens. They were both fun, the latter was sublime. Athens was empty, yet free. Bliss
Why shouldn't I do this again? I shall, I need that possibility of escape, at least
We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.
Yeah that bit about Mary being a Virgin is a bit unbelievable but we just go along with it.
Christmas 1982: as a 7 year-old, my only acting credit to date was as one of the Three Wise Men, the one wot carried myrrh!
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
"Boris Johnson could face leadership challenge if North Shropshire by-election lost, say Tory MPs Conservatives ‘discussing whether we still need him’, says backbencher"
@Philip_Thompson is right. The goal was never to stop the virus, it was to make it survivable and now it is. Job done.
It always was, for the vast majority. It still isn't for the 100 odd a day dying of it. The evidence is in that 2 jabs plus booster is of virtually no effect whatever against contracting omicron. Whether it reduces severity/hosp/death we have at present no way of knowing. What job has been done?
2 jabs plus booster definitely has an effect.
Utterly impossible to say. Didn't help V Derbyshire's brother
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the vaccine takes the virus from life threatening to "feels rough" then its done its job.
Nope. That was always the spectrum anyway. It threatens 1% of lives.
5-10% of lives if it crashes health systems?
I think Wuhan had a CFR of ~5% at one point
China as a whole had a CFR of about 5% up until mid April 2020. Then amazingly it fell to less than a two hundredth of that level. It could be that China had far more cases than they let on, or maybe China has extraordinarily brilliant healthcare, or perhaps the figures can not be trusted.
To give you some idea of how out-there China's figures are since April 2020 China has been doing about ten times better than New Zealand on a case-by-case basis.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Believe me it's better.
This reminds me that the model for the D'Uerberville manor house is en route to the Tank Museum at Bovington from Wool. Wonder when I will see them again. Or the Hardy birthplace.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
We both should have been treated ages ago
We are both triple jabbed
No thanks for waiting much longer
Horrible. Sympathies
Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped
Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week
Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?
GRRRRRR
It seems for the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer anti-vaxxers are some sort of libertarian hero.
Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”
The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.
We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
"I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".
You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
Confirmed list of Tory rebels who will vote against the Plan B measures next week, thus requiring Boris to have Labour votes to get them through.
• Steve Baker • Ben Bradley • Brendan Clarke-Smith • Graham Brady • Philip Davies • Richard Drax • Simon Jupp • Stephen McPartland • John Redwood • Greg Smith • Dehenna Davison • Marcus Fysh • Gary Sambrook • Pauline Latham • William Wragg • Geoffrey Clifton-Brown • Iain Duncan Smith • Christopher Chope • Craig Tracey • Robert Syms • Anthony Mangnall • Greg Clark • Esther McVey • Liam Fox • David Davis • Mark Jenkinson • Mark Harper • Darren Henry • Steve Brine • Craig Mackinlay • Simon Fell • Andrew Bowie • David Warburton • Siobhan Baillie • David Jones • Tom Randall • Ben Spencer • Andrew Rosindell • Charles Walker • Douglas Ross • Karl McCartney • Anne Marie Morris • Johnny Mercer • Tom Tugendhat • Richard Fuller • Giles Watling • Desmond Swayne • Andrew Bridgen • Andrew Lewer https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1469257084285997057?s=20
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
and let thousands die of non covid related illnesses
and let thousands suffer from treatable illnesses as there is no health care
what a wonderful society to live in
Omicron would be over in a couple of months with no restrictions.
I have a cancer operation to remove a tumour 22nd Dec
My wife is still suffering continual great pain 24/7/365
We both should have been treated ages ago
We are both triple jabbed
No thanks for waiting much longer
Horrible. Sympathies
Stories like yours make me think the anti-vaxxers should not simply be fined, they should be horse-whipped
Their selfish stupidity is literally killing hundreds if not thousands of people every week
Why are we so fucking spineless? Stamp on them. Make them suffer. Why do I have to go into ten weeks of hideous winter lockdown because some c*nt in Hounslow or Harrogate is a fucking imbecile?
GRRRRRR
It seems for the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer anti-vaxxers are some sort of libertarian hero.
Libertarianism includes paying for the consequences of your choices.
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
"I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".
You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
No; thanks: not familiar with it; have promply found a promising-looking acount and have downloaded.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂
I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.
So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
You're even more dishonest than Boris Johnson.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
Good to see you have finally come around to admitting Boris Johnson is dishonest, and I noticed on a post the other day you said he should go. When you were his No1 Fan on PB, did you realise he was dishonest then (and therefore OK with people being disreputable), or were you a just a gullible fool?
I kept telling you I was not his fanboi, I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe.
Yes I knew he was dishonest. He's a politician, they all are.
"I just agreed with him on the one issue of Europe".
You mean you too were a Remainer who pretended to be a Leaver for a promotion?
Apparently Johnson has refused to accept the resignation of his Head of Comms who, it turns out, was actually at the party that he has been briefing never took place.
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. Perhaps dealing with that thought rather than embarking on political point scoring might be a more healthy strategy?
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
That's a good point.
I have no idea how omicron will go, but quite frankly I barely care anymore either.
If it creates a March 2020 situation then I will still oppose lockdowns or restrictions. I will still say "enough is enough".
This is nature. We've done the vaccines. If some people have reached the natural end of their lives due to this virus then that's that, we need to keep living our lives for everyone else who survives though.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean
One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
Away from Covid, any one else seeing value in e/w bets on Bottas and Perez, given how the first corner could go on Sunday?
Not even just first corner.
Looks like Max wants to 2 stop, so Lewis would be wise to mirror strategy as long as he's ahead. Which leaves the door open for Bottas on the otherwise superior 1 stop.
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
That's harsh. It is not a narrative being "pushed". Honest scientists are unnerved by scary data. And it is scary, at least in part. And it is just maths
"But even a mild disease can put health services under huge pressure. The London based epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski notes that a fast moving virus can actually lead to more deaths than a more deadly one.
"He notes that if a virus increases in transmissibility by 50 per cent, but the mortality rate stays the same, it would still lead to more deaths after a month than if the mortality rate alone jumped by 50 per cent. This is because the pool of people with the virus would be far greater.
"His hypothetical scenario shows that - from a base of 10,000 initial infections - a virus that was 50 percent faster would cause 978 deaths after a month. This compares to just 193 from a variant with 50 percent more deadly.
"And this is what the Government in the UK is worried about - a tsunami of cases, whether mild or severe, hitting the NHS at its busiest time of year".
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.
Bleak.
I don't think there will be a lockdown before the 18th for the simple reason that that's the earliest realistic date you could shut schools (and when most of them shut anyway)
What we need to make sure of is that those drunken fascists on Sage don't impose a last-minute lockdown in the new year despite Omicron not having killed anyone.
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
Incidentally, anyone else find the O2 connect the disconnected advert with robots sneaking in to homes to install internet a bit.... creepy?
I know 2 people without the internet, and it's a very definitely choice. Hard to believe the number of people with homes without internet against their will is above a statistical rounding error.
This is a really excellent thread by the brilliant @LevinsLaw on the somewhat anoraky, but highly topical, question of the relevance of s.73 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 to the legality of Downing St parties. https://twitter.com/LevinsLaw/status/1469367877157466113
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. Perhaps dealing with that thought rather than embarking on political point scoring might be a more healthy strategy?
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.
Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.
One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
They could win every single Labour voter and it wouldn't help.
What they need are Tory switchers.
Surely a message of 'we probably can't win but for us and send a message' would suffice for that?
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
Yet the expectation is needed to be able to challenge credibly as the only ones who can beat the Tories. It’ll be a tough message to get across in a seat like that, starting from third, and they will need every media repetition of a possible LibDem win to get through to as many Labour voters as possible.
They could win every single Labour voter and it wouldn't help.
What they need are Tory switchers.
Surely a message of 'we probably can't win but for us and send a message' would suffice for that?
The Tories are repelling sufficient voters to win, it’s just a matter of who gets them.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
I'm doubtful of these suggestions that South Africa has much more acquired immunity than the UK.
Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”
The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.
We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over
An interesting message. Unless an important bit is missing here, it fails to deal with the problem that at NS the anti Tory vote should be nicely split between Labour, who came second last time, and LDs, who last time came an unimpressive third, and who the media bubble think are entitled to win. The Tories could just scrape home with about 38% of the vote.
Reading this stuff it strikes me that interpretation of the scant evidence about omicron virtually correlates exactly with the posters' pre- conceived views on the issue. We really don't know. It is too early to tell. I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies. But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. We need to deal with that thought rather than lashing out on political point scoring.
The study out today of booster shots versus Omicron looks positive.
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
We'll be lucky to get to 18th without a hard lockdown now, never mind the new year.
Bleak.
Yeah we need some politicians brave enough to tell the scientists that we're not taking action regardless of what they say.
Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
No chance. Boris is a trolly, Gove has the zeal of a true believer and everyone else in the room is just hoping it all sticks to them two.
We need Javid and Sunak to have enough balls to say no.
I'm not sure they do.
If they did, the time was Wednesday.
Why is Gove involved? Pretty sure I read in S Times a week or two ago that he had been removed from covid crisis meetings as he was now Harrying the North minister and not Cabinet Office (Steve Barclay is in that job now)???
Maybe Johnson forgot and just let Mikey MDA turn up?
5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties? Sorry - but no.
Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
SA hospital figures are notoriously poorly collated. They regularly end up back filing stats weeks after the fact.
Freedland: He has brought together previously warring factions of his own party – the anti-mask crowd, good-government types who remember integrity, and the 2019 intake still waiting for Johnson to deliver on his promises – in unison against him. The latter group is the one watched most closely. There are a lot of them and they face constituents who made clear two years ago that they were merely lending their vote to the Tories. “When they are complaining,” says one MP of the class of 2019, “then he’s in real trouble. And they are.”
The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.
We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over
An interesting message. Unless an important bit is missing here, it fails to deal with the problem that at NS the anti Tory vote should be nicely split between Labour, who came second last time, and LDs, who last time came an unimpressive third, and who the media bubble think are entitled to win. The Tories could just scrape home with about 38% of the vote.
He does say that Labour can’t win, in the rest of the article. He also makes the point that some in Labour would rather the Tories, and hence the clown, held on.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
He got his facts wrong about the population of South Africa: it's 60 million not 40 million.
I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.
Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.
I think the Stratton video gives the impression of a bunch of giggling posh prats playing at government.
5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties? Sorry - but no.
Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?
Sorry - but no.
What's the openly fascistic organisation?
I have my doubts about Independent SAGE but I wouldn't call them that.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
So. Failing to deliver boosters after three months rather than six could mean a 2022 new year three month lockdown.
That's on you JCVI.
I think?
Not doing the kids in the summer definitely is. And there insistence on dragging their feet for months, before reluctantly saying well a few people in special cases should get one.
Comments
As I am always right everyone can rest easy that cases will top out at 65k(ish)
Why shouldn't I do this again? I shall, I need that possibility of escape, at least
I went with 65k after bargaining myself down from 68
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3485788
You went for 200,000 Friday 14th January, 2022 ?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Conservatives ‘discussing whether we still need him’, says backbencher"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-tory-mps-leadership-b1973964.html
To give you some idea of how out-there China's figures are since April 2020 China has been doing about ten times better than New Zealand on a case-by-case basis.
The plea needs to go out to the Tory voters of North Shropshire. They were cheated by their Tory MP, who promised to work for them but was found to be lobbying for the companies that paid him handsomely. They have been cheated by a Tory prime minister who has lied and lied – setting the rules for everyone else while he and his chums broke them without a second thought, laughing at the saps who were stupid enough to comply.
We face a government that is cruel, useless and rotten from the head down. The voters of North Shropshire have a rare chance on Thursday to declare that the citizens of this country will not just take it. That they won’t just shrug and say, “That’s Boris.” That they will demand better. The political after-effects will take care of themselves. The most immediate task is to send Downing Street the clearest possible message: the party’s over
I was a Remainer and I was convinced to switch sides by a mix of Boris, Gove, @Casino_Royale and @Richard_Tyndall
She seems to forget that.
I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.
So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
Yes I know we say this a lot recently but you really couldn’t make this up could you?
https://twitter.com/SiobhanBenita/status/1469362416962228225
We really don't know. It is too early to tell.
I know that such uncertainty rips away the thin veil that persuades us we are in some kind of control of our lives and destinies.
But we really aren't. And especially now, with regard to omicron. Perhaps dealing with that thought rather than embarking on political point scoring might be a more healthy strategy?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augustus_Pugin#Contrasts
But it is clear what the narrative being pushed is,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/10/michael-gove-hints-tougher-covid-measures-amid-deeply-concerning/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296495/Omicron-hotspot-London-suffering-FASTEST-growth-cases-Englands-regions.html
I have no idea how omicron will go, but quite frankly I barely care anymore either.
If it creates a March 2020 situation then I will still oppose lockdowns or restrictions. I will still say "enough is enough".
This is nature. We've done the vaccines. If some people have reached the natural end of their lives due to this virus then that's that, we need to keep living our lives for everyone else who survives though.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Guardian
Looks like Max wants to 2 stop, so Lewis would be wise to mirror strategy as long as he's ahead. Which leaves the door open for Bottas on the otherwise superior 1 stop.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351577987260419
Five MPs from the 2019 intake are now thought to have written letters to demand Mr Johnson quits.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17004710/tory-mps-demand-boris-johnson-quits/
Evidence of 2 things:
1) ongoing community transmission
2) we have effectively interrupted infections entering the country
Bleak.
"But even a mild disease can put health services under huge pressure. The London based epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski notes that a fast moving virus can actually lead to more deaths than a more deadly one.
"He notes that if a virus increases in transmissibility by 50 per cent, but the mortality rate stays the same, it would still lead to more deaths after a month than if the mortality rate alone jumped by 50 per cent. This is because the pool of people with the virus would be far greater.
"His hypothetical scenario shows that - from a base of 10,000 initial infections - a virus that was 50 percent faster would cause 978 deaths after a month. This compares to just 193 from a variant with 50 percent more deadly.
"And this is what the Government in the UK is worried about - a tsunami of cases, whether mild or severe, hitting the NHS at its busiest time of year".
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/09/charts-ministers-think-could-hit-million-omicron-cases-day-christmas/
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/127245863/covid19-man-receives-up-to-10-vaccines-in-one-day?cid=PDM717073&bid=1422858244
What we need to make sure of is that those drunken fascists on Sage don't impose a last-minute lockdown in the new year despite Omicron not having killed anyone.
Advisors advise, ministers decide. Its the ministers fault if they're weak.
I know 2 people without the internet, and it's a very definitely choice. Hard to believe the number of people with homes without internet against their will is above a statistical rounding error.
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties?
Sorry - but no.
... that omicron curve is already flattening.
We will see what happens in the next week.
Six MPs could quit Government in Covid restrictions rebellion in a series of ‘Super Tuesday’ votes in the Commons
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/10/six-mps-could-quit-members-government-covid-restrictions/
I'm not sure they do.
Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.
https://xkcd.com/2355/
What they need are Tory switchers.
Surely a message of 'we probably can't win but for us and send a message' would suffice for that?
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
·
2m
TIMES: New curbs to slow virus #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
It's like Groundhog Day with pineapples.
404 in ICU
419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1469423414343614475
Maybe Johnson forgot and just let Mikey MDA turn up?
Sorry - but no.
I have my doubts about Independent SAGE but I wouldn't call them that.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1469425171492712451?s=20
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
See here:
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
That's on you JCVI.
I think?
📈6pt Labour lead
🌳Con 33 (-5)
🌹Lab 39 (+2)
🔶LDM 9 (=)
🎗️SNP 5 (+1)
🌍Grn 4 (-1)
⬜️Other 9 (+2)
2,118 UK adults, 9-10 Dec
(Changes from 3-5 Dec) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1469426058038554627/photo/1