Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
LAB may well end up 15% clear soon. But for them to be seen as a realistic alternative government they need to keep a decent lead up to the next GE and that is up to three years away.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
Utter hilarity.
First it was, why is Labour not ahead.
Then when Labour was ahead, it was why isn't Labour ahead by 5 points.
Now Labour is ahead by 8 points, it's why isn't Labour ahead by 10 points.
If this is the attitude of the Tory Party, Starmer should just and wait and he'll walk into Downing Street with no effort at all.
Utter hilarity.
Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband both had 10% leads, and you think Starmer is nailed to walk into Downing Street due to an 8% one? A lead worse than Jeremy frigging Corbyn achieved???
Its not bad for him to be in the lead now, but its a 'necessary but not sufficient condition'. Hubris doesn't get you very far.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
You've now leap-frogged me into too much pessimism! After scoffing at me for weeks
Don't be so despairing, I reckon this next wave will be bad, but it will also be short. That's OMICRON THE PREMATURE EJACULATOR
It will zzzip through the country in short order. And then there is a reasonable expectation that we will be over the worst, forever (or at least until the next pandemic out of China)
Ten weeks? Twelve? It is do-able. Grim, but do-able
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
Does that assume the amount of the other variant stays the same?
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
I doubt it'll keep doubling every 2 days, delta has never hit a true SEIR model herd immunity threshold, instead it's gone into seemingly random peaks and troughs. Omicron will do the same, the big question is at what infection level.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.
SAGE will get their lockdown.
The non boostered are under 50 without underlying conditions- if they're not obese, their hospital odds are negligible.
Last January it was ~100% unvaccinated. We have every reason to expect a significantly better outcome.
I'm not. Don't start this again. Not everyone over 50 who wants a booster has had one. I'm 55 and the first one I was offered was Wednesday.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
The Government doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
Anyway, one more round of SAGE modelling projections showing all the hospitals burning to the ground in January and that'll probably be that. Based on the always expect the worst hypothesis of Covid, I'm going for a new lockdown being announced on the previously trailed review date on the 18th, to try to stamp on the plague by cancelling Christmas. But if they "only" go so far as masks and vaxports virtually everywhere, that approach won't survive for more than a couple of weeks.
Boris may well resign after the absolute battering I have a feeling they're going to get in North Shropshire. I mean he might not, but it'll be the mood music after that and relying on Labour votes for more restrictions.
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
Also worth remembering that that the doubling rate is set in stone and will always be every three days...
Something not being much mentioned - about three times more re-infection than delta, but still not a huge number. And reinfection will most likely be milder than the first infection.
PB has been depressing tonight. I think, and suspect, that 99% of the country are just getting on with life, and not endlessly worrying about things which probably won’t happen.
Off to bed shortly, and then the joy/misery of waking and finding the cricket score/result... Then park run with my 76 year old mother. Living life to the full, not cowering from shadows.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Let's hope not.
We can hope not; but I think it is inevitable as we now know how it all works politically.
The only difference is that this time around a large proportion of people will rise up against lockdown. A large minority. It could really destablise the entire political establishment, as all the main parties are pro lockdown and following the 'science'.
Remember my friend's - cue spooky music - prediction.
Farage MP within the year, PM within three years
*chilled spines everywhere*
Imagine Farage and Trump in charge at the same time.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
You've now leap-frogged me into too much pessimism! After scoffing at me for weeks
Don't be so despairing, I reckon this next wave will be bad, but it will also be short. That's OMICRON THE PREMATURE EJACULATOR
It will zzzip through the country in short order. And then there is a reasonable expectation that we will be over the worst, forever (or at least until the next pandemic out of China)
Ten weeks? Twelve? It is do-able. Grim, but do-able
Chinese viruses are crap. Even the Kent variant beats their feeble effort, and the Indian version clobbered both, then all three were made feeble by the African version.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
Which, let it be noted, a Labour government would not
ALL Labour's instincts - like Sturgeon's up north - are to control, lock down, be safe, nanny the people, increase the debt, furlough the poor nurses, oh the poor migrants, don't be mean to poor "communities" who don't understand injections, blah blah fucking blah, fuck off
The Tories need to rediscover some spine, STOP having bloody parties during a lockdown yet resist the communists on SAGE who want to overturn society and put us in masks forever. This can still be a winning position
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
You've now leap-frogged me into too much pessimism! After scoffing at me for weeks
Don't be so despairing, I reckon this next wave will be bad, but it will also be short. That's OMICRON THE PREMATURE EJACULATOR
It will zzzip through the country in short order. And then there is a reasonable expectation that we will be over the worst, forever (or at least until the next pandemic out of China)
Ten weeks? Twelve? It is do-able. Grim, but do-able
Will we be lucky enough that lockdowns don't work against it? The notion that we might have a massive death spike and then be out the other side of this nightmare, rather than living the nightmare for five or ten more years and then having the massive death spike anyway, seems too good to be true.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
I doubt it'll keep doubling every 2 days, delta has never hit a true SEIR model herd immunity threshold, instead it's gone into seemingly random peaks and troughs. Omicron will do the same, the big question is at what infection level.
A lot of people seem very spooked even before hospital admissions have started going up. This will slow it down a bit, and we can expect more behaviour modification if/when the hospital numbers start to rise again.
Assuming that most people's Christmas/Boxing Day gatherings go ahead as planned, that's likely to lead to a huge amount of spread - we saw that with Ireland last winter - and so likely more caution from the general population in the New Year.
It is selfish of me, but my main concern is that no major additional restrictions are brought in before I get to see my daughter in Bath next weekend. It has been eight months since we saw her.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
Which, let it be noted, a Labour government would not
ALL Labour's instincts - like Sturgeon's up north - are to control, lock down, be safe, nanny the people, increase the debt, furlough the poor nurses, oh the poor migrants, don't be mean to poor "communities" who don't understand injections, blah blah fucking blah, fuck off
The Tories need to rediscover some spine, STOP having bloody parties during a lockdown yet resist the communists on SAGE who want to overturn society and put us in masks forever. This can still be a winning position
Indeed, it suits Labour and the SNP to have eternal lockdowns. As the more they can shrink the private sector and expand dependency on the state, the bigger their pool of potential voters will be
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
I doubt it'll keep doubling every 2 days, delta has never hit a true SEIR model herd immunity threshold, instead it's gone into seemingly random peaks and troughs. Omicron will do the same, the big question is at what infection level.
A lot of people seem very spooked even before hospital admissions have started going up. This will slow it down a bit, and we can expect more behaviour modification if/when the hospital numbers start to rise again.
Assuming that most people's Christmas/Boxing Day gatherings go ahead as planned, that's likely to lead to a huge amount of spread - we saw that with Ireland last winter - and so likely more caution from the general population in the New Year.
It is selfish of me, but my main concern is that no major additional restrictions are brought in before I get to see my daughter in Bath next weekend. It has been eight months since we saw her.
Cobra Kai returns on NYE. That will keep the numbers down.
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
One has to say, when the history books are written, there has probably never been another PM whose personal characteristics and flaws determined his premiership more.
But of course with Johnson there is nothing else. Everything is his cartoon personality.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
Well, people in Germany don't exactly have a choice about whether or not to have the jab.
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
Also worth remembering that that the doubling rate is set in stone and will always be every three days...
Something not being much mentioned - about three times more re-infection than delta, but still not a huge number. And reinfection will most likely be milder than the first infection.
PB has been depressing tonight. I think, and suspect, that 99% of the country are just getting on with life, and not endlessly worrying about things which probably won’t happen.
Off to bed shortly, and then the joy/misery of waking and finding the cricket score/result... Then park run with my 76 year old mother. Living life to the full, not cowering from shadows.
Not worrying about things that probably WILL happen (but might not if we're very lucky) is much easier said than done.
Living life to the full will be considerably more difficult if your parkrun gets cancelled, along with absolutely everything else outside the confines of your home that you enjoy doing, and every event you've been looking forward to attending, for months on end.
Personally I'm getting out and doing all this stuff whilst I still can, but once the lockdown jackboot stamps on us all again then it doesn't much matter how much I miss it or how much I might be tempted to disregard all these rules. You can't extend the middle finger in the general direction of the Government by going to events organised by clubs you belong to, or dining out in your favourite restaurant, if all of these organisations and businesses have had to close for fear of prosecution.
Basically, unless you have any family and friends who have also had enough and are willing to keep socialising regardless in each other's homes, you're stuck back in March 2020 or January 2021 again.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
Delighted to hear that there will be an Ashes Test match in Tasmania for the first time ever. That's a really good idea rather than just putting it back in the MCG again. Really great to have a State that never gets the opportunity to host the Ashes, to be able to do so this time. 👍
Just got my PCR results back. Both me and eldest positive. No surprise. Wonderfully efficient system! Told us to isolate for 10 days from first symptoms... could either of us remember? We couldn't recall what we did at the weekend even. Had to check texts to find out. It was like something from 10 years ago that comes up as a Facebook memory. Oh yes! Had a negative test on Friday cos I had a sore throat and was working in the shop. Couldn't remember I'd been working! Went to two classes on Sunday and Monday. Buggered if I can remember what we studied. Didn't feel I was at all out of it at the time though. Neither of us feel ill now. But COVID brain fog is something to behold. Total discombobulation.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
Which, let it be noted, a Labour government would not
ALL Labour's instincts - like Sturgeon's up north - are to control, lock down, be safe, nanny the people, increase the debt, furlough the poor nurses, oh the poor migrants, don't be mean to poor "communities" who don't understand injections, blah blah fucking blah, fuck off
The Tories need to rediscover some spine, STOP having bloody parties during a lockdown yet resist the communists on SAGE who want to overturn society and put us in masks forever. This can still be a winning position
Indeed, it suits Labour and the SNP to have eternal lockdowns. As the more they can shrink the private sector and expand dependency on the state, the bigger their pool of potential voters will be
Gosh, that's almost QAnon level conspiracy. Starmer announces permanent lockdown, compulsory council housing, and nationalisation of all industries to shrink the private sector and win the GE. I can't quite see it myself.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
Well, people in Germany don't exactly have a choice about whether or not to have the jab.
I don't think Germany has introduced general mandatory vaccines
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
Which, let it be noted, a Labour government would not
ALL Labour's instincts - like Sturgeon's up north - are to control, lock down, be safe, nanny the people, increase the debt, furlough the poor nurses, oh the poor migrants, don't be mean to poor "communities" who don't understand injections, blah blah fucking blah, fuck off
The Tories need to rediscover some spine, STOP having bloody parties during a lockdown yet resist the communists on SAGE who want to overturn society and put us in masks forever. This can still be a winning position
Weren't you saying the hospitals will be totally overrun with the dead in car parks whilst we chew on rats tails about an hour ago unless something is done?
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
Boris may well resign after the absolute battering I have a feeling they're going to get in North Shropshire. I mean he might not, but it'll be the mood music after that and relying on Labour votes for more restrictions.
He's lucky it will all happen as we are distracted by the family Christmas celebrations.
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
One has to say, when the history books are written, there has probably never been another PM whose personal characteristics and flaws determined his premiership more.
II think the final straw was when he dressed up in a Policeman's uniform.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
Cases would be under 10 000 by Christmas.
Harsh. As Lillico keeps saying - there was the caveat that a mutation did not spring out of nowhere that evaded immunity.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
Quite right, it is fantastic that we did that and will put us in a much better stead for the winter. 👍
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
One has to say, when the history books are written, there has probably never been another PM whose personal characteristics and flaws determined his premiership more.
II think the final straw was when he dressed up in a Policeman's uniform.
Yes, that might have been the final moment when the joke was no longer funny.
Just got my PCR results back. Both me and eldest positive. No surprise. Wonderfully efficient system! Told us to isolate for 10 days from first symptoms... could either of us remember? We couldn't recall what we did at the weekend even. Had to check texts to find out. It was like something from 10 years ago that comes up as a Facebook memory. Oh yes! Had a negative test on Friday cos I had a sore throat and was working in the shop. Couldn't remember I'd been working! Went to two classes on Sunday and Monday. Buggered if I can remember what we studied. Didn't feel I was at all out of it at the time though. Neither of us feel ill now. But COVID brain fog is something to behold. Total discombobulation.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
The next iteration of patriotic turd polishing will be epic.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
Really
Are you going to treat us to your ludicrous, embarrassing, faeces-flinging fantasies of your exciting, militaristic, motorbiking past-life with a plutocratic suicidal bent even as you crow about not having a jab COS YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT FUCKING TREE FROGS and thereby condemn the rest of of us to another hellish lockdown, and, some of us, death?
Fuck off. Get tae fuck. Fuck the fuck off you appalling fucking fraud. FUCK. OFF.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
Cases would be under 10 000 by Christmas.
Harsh. As Lillico keeps saying - there was the caveat that a mutation did not spring out of nowhere that evaded immunity.
We've never really had an exit wave with delta though. The caveat isn't needed for 10k cases @ christmas to be almost certainly falsifiably incorrect.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
GET A FUCKING JAB
REALLY
ENOUGH
His vaccine status has nothing to do with you ffs
IT. REALLY. DOES.
Depends whether or not he ends up blocking a bed. Swift death or recovery works, but being in the ICU for an extended time period with Covid whilst unjabbed is unforgivable.
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
GET A FUCKING JAB
REALLY
ENOUGH
His vaccine status has nothing to do with you ffs
IT. REALLY. DOES.
Depends whether or not he ends up blocking a bed. Swift death or recovery works, but being in the ICU for an extended time period with Covid whilst unjabbed is unforgivable.
It is entirely unforgiveable. People like this no longer get an opinion. On anything
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
There was simply no other place a Johnson government would ever end up but mired in rampant lies, chaos, negligence, financial sponging and the live evisceration of public service. To the Conservatives and media outriders somehow only now discovering this about their guy, I think we have to say: you ordered this. Now eat it.
One has to say, when the history books are written, there has probably never been another PM whose personal characteristics and flaws determined his premiership more.
II think the final straw was when he dressed up in a Policeman's uniform.
Yes, that might have been the final moment when the joke was no longer funny.
It had something of the last days of Mussolini about it. He looked both sad and ridiculous
I'm old enough to remember when the pb.com tories were strumming themselves off over the perspicacity of UKG allowing the 'exit wave' to happen in the summer as opposed to the Europeans who would be having their 'exit wave' in the winter.
GET A FUCKING JAB
REALLY
ENOUGH
His vaccine status has nothing to do with you ffs
IT. REALLY. DOES.
Depends whether or not he ends up blocking a bed. Swift death or recovery works, but being in the ICU for an extended time period with Covid whilst unjabbed is unforgivable.
It is entirely unforgiveable. People like this no longer get an opinion. On anything
Concentrate on yourself rather than sticking your neb into other people’s business
Just got my PCR results back. Both me and eldest positive. No surprise. Wonderfully efficient system! Told us to isolate for 10 days from first symptoms... could either of us remember? We couldn't recall what we did at the weekend even. Had to check texts to find out. It was like something from 10 years ago that comes up as a Facebook memory. Oh yes! Had a negative test on Friday cos I had a sore throat and was working in the shop. Couldn't remember I'd been working! Went to two classes on Sunday and Monday. Buggered if I can remember what we studied. Didn't feel I was at all out of it at the time though. Neither of us feel ill now. But COVID brain fog is something to behold. Total discombobulation.
Sympathies, but thank you for the wry reports - both interesting and good to see your sense of humour is unaffected. Get better soon!!
Comments
Focalpoll
CON: 33%
LAB: 41%
LD: 7%
GRN: 6%
SNP: 5%
PC: 1%
OTHER: 1%
Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband both had 10% leads, and you think Starmer is nailed to walk into Downing Street due to an 8% one? A lead worse than Jeremy frigging Corbyn achieved???
Its not bad for him to be in the lead now, but its a 'necessary but not sufficient condition'. Hubris doesn't get you very far.
Don't be so despairing, I reckon this next wave will be bad, but it will also be short. That's OMICRON THE PREMATURE EJACULATOR
It will zzzip through the country in short order. And then there is a reasonable expectation that we will be over the worst, forever (or at least until the next pandemic out of China)
Ten weeks? Twelve? It is do-able. Grim, but do-able
Omicron will do the same, the big question is at what infection level.
I'm 55 and the first one I was offered was Wednesday.
Anyway, one more round of SAGE modelling projections showing all the hospitals burning to the ground in January and that'll probably be that. Based on the always expect the worst hypothesis of Covid, I'm going for a new lockdown being announced on the previously trailed review date on the 18th, to try to stamp on the plague by cancelling Christmas. But if they "only" go so far as masks and vaxports virtually everywhere, that approach won't survive for more than a couple of weeks.
He is still behind on best PM in one poll today, incredibly.
I mean he might not, but it'll be the mood music after that and relying on Labour votes for more restrictions.
Something not being much mentioned - about three times more re-infection than delta, but still not a huge number. And reinfection will most likely be milder than the first infection.
PB has been depressing tonight. I think, and suspect, that 99% of the country are just getting on with life, and not endlessly worrying about things which probably won’t happen.
Off to bed shortly, and then the joy/misery of waking and finding the cricket score/result...
Then park run with my 76 year old mother. Living life to the full, not cowering from shadows.
ALL Labour's instincts - like Sturgeon's up north - are to control, lock down, be safe, nanny the people, increase the debt, furlough the poor nurses, oh the poor migrants, don't be mean to poor "communities" who don't understand injections, blah blah fucking blah, fuck off
The Tories need to rediscover some spine, STOP having bloody parties during a lockdown yet resist the communists on SAGE who want to overturn society and put us in masks forever. This can still be a winning position
Humpty Dumpty had a Great Ball
Humpty Dumpty had a Great Fall
Or something better obviously, full of subconscious, hooded wink meaning.
Do we are have collective skills on PB to invent that nursery rhyme?
Which tune to copy? Is Boris associated to a particular tune?
It's like losing your girl to Derek from accounts 🤣🤣🤣
26th January 2022.
I see Labour are only 21 points ahead. Any other leader would be 30 points ahead.
Still, here he comes – Shagatha Christie, trying to deduce what the hell has happened this week.
Sorry, 20% of the Tory Party thinks BoJo should resign? That is horrendous
it's a temporary phenomena. Corbyn was ahead by 8 points in 2017 and again by 6 points in July 2019 didn't stop Labour getting beaten by Boris.
@Dr_D_Robertson
·
2m
R for Omicron in England is estimated to be 3.7 (between 3.3 and 4.2).
This means that each person who is infected with Omicron goes on to infect *3.7* more.
Even with a highly vaccinated population (although one where most have not been boosted).
I am sure they have evidence implicating BoJo
Assuming that most people's Christmas/Boxing Day gatherings go ahead as planned, that's likely to lead to a huge amount of spread - we saw that with Ireland last winter - and so likely more caution from the general population in the New Year.
It is selfish of me, but my main concern is that no major additional restrictions are brought in before I get to see my daughter in Bath next weekend. It has been eight months since we saw her.
Dr Duncan Robertson
@Dr_D_Robertson
·
4h
We will not reach one million cases per day.
Because we don't have PCR capacity for one million cases per day.
Careful what you wish for a full blown Thatcherite will be next.
Do you seriously expect Johnson to come back from this? He now has the negative Midas touch. Every contact just creates more shit.
When push comes to shove people won't vote for the guy with no personality who is equal to Boris on the lying front.
But of course with Johnson there is nothing else. Everything is his cartoon personality.
Living life to the full will be considerably more difficult if your parkrun gets cancelled, along with absolutely everything else outside the confines of your home that you enjoy doing, and every event you've been looking forward to attending, for months on end.
Personally I'm getting out and doing all this stuff whilst I still can, but once the lockdown jackboot stamps on us all again then it doesn't much matter how much I miss it or how much I might be tempted to disregard all these rules. You can't extend the middle finger in the general direction of the Government by going to events organised by clubs you belong to, or dining out in your favourite restaurant, if all of these organisations and businesses have had to close for fear of prosecution.
Basically, unless you have any family and friends who have also had enough and are willing to keep socialising regardless in each other's homes, you're stuck back in March 2020 or January 2021 again.
* under 40 year olds - please see you line manager or tutor if you are feeling upset by what happened on TV in the past.
Told us to isolate for 10 days from first symptoms... could either of us remember? We couldn't recall what we did at the weekend even. Had to check texts to find out. It was like something from 10 years ago that comes up as a Facebook memory.
Oh yes! Had a negative test on Friday cos I had a sore throat and was working in the shop. Couldn't remember I'd been working!
Went to two classes on Sunday and Monday. Buggered if I can remember what we studied. Didn't feel I was at all out of it at the time though.
Neither of us feel ill now. But COVID brain fog is something to behold.
Total discombobulation.
Now Labour is consistently ahead in the opinion polls, you're making the same point.
Starmer is making better progress than you against the Tories, I think.
Oh wait...
Boris Johnson Ruled Inept
To the rules he never once kept
To this old rogue comeuppance crept
When above the party he soundly slept
The gauntlet is down Sunil. 😘
REALLY
ENOUGH
Consistently behind for vast majority of his leadership. "Yeah but Corbyn"
How do their medical professionals appear? Relatively relaxed in the context of the last 2 years.
You lot and our politicalmedia class need to get a grip.
Who once got locked in his garage
He campaigned so hard
But let down his guard
And fell to an electoral barrage!
Are you going to treat us to your ludicrous, embarrassing, faeces-flinging fantasies of your exciting, militaristic, motorbiking past-life with a plutocratic suicidal bent even as you crow about not having a jab COS YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT FUCKING TREE FROGS and thereby condemn the rest of of us to another hellish lockdown, and, some of us, death?
Fuck off. Get tae fuck. Fuck the fuck off you appalling fucking fraud. FUCK. OFF.
LD 1.49/ 1.5
Con 3.05 / 3.1
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
Keep up the good work Comrade!
Good night all.
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