One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
There are direct trains from Birmingham, Wrexham and Chester to Gobowen (Oswestry) and it's pretty easy to change at Shrewsbury for Wem/Whitchurch.
Based on the evidence of twitter the lib Dems have been sending activists from all across GB.
I expect them to narrowly pull it off and have come round to that view in the past few weeks. 40% could even be enough for them and additional labour tactical votes could just be the icing on the cake.
I don't think unfavourable demography is an issue as this is a free hit by election on the Tories/Johnson and can see the seat reverting to a safe tory seat at the next GE.
I don't think there is anything to lose for the lib dems in going for it even though I think this by election won't necessarily have a lasting impact or even directly lead to the downfall of Johnson.
I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.
Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.
Yes, if they said sorry each time they were caught red handed instead of taking us for fools they would still be in the lead in the polls.
Yes, It's obviously extremely infectious if you've not had a booster, not as bad if you've had one, especially if it was recent. Jury still out on hospitalisation and death but some cause for hope there/
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
I’m not sure the hedonists are with Boris on the number 10 party. He locked us all down and sent the police after rule breakers, when his coterie clearly didn’t see fit to make the same sacrifices themselves.
Most of the anger I’ve seen is from people denied social contact last Christmas, not people who prudishly disapprove of the actual party. The hypocrisy is the crime, not the party. That and the blistering arrogance of the last 2 weeks.
I think the Stratton video gives the impression of a bunch of giggling posh prats playing at government.
I’ll bet all of us here can name in 5 seconds flat at least three people we’ve worked with or know in real life that you’d rather have round the table than the wallies we get lumbered with. The biggest sickness of UK politics post Ali Campbell is the disproportionate amount of journalists and PR specialists we’ve had at the wheel of power. Then and 20-something spads. Who are rarely spectacular but well connected.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
Hmm. I, on the other hand, remember Nastassia Kinski playing Tess in the Roman Polanski film.
Ah. I read the book. Don';t know what the film said.
Ah, you're missing the point, rather.
I've read the book a few times but don't recall the social commentary. Jude the Obscure is pretty outspoken and the outcry following publication led to him giving up novel-writing. Some of his poetry is really marvellous.
When I read “ the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates. “ it instantly reminded me of the battle between Ruskin and Pugin, are you familiar with that?
The more I considered Pugin’s point, the more I considered he did have a good point. Where some people were so quick to favour change and progress, his own philosophy was how it changes people standard of life.
If you are reading this HYUFD take a look at Pugins “Contrasts” If you not already familiar with it.
Don’t think I am bonkers HYUFD, take a look at this first to see what I mean
Absolutely. I wouldn’t have mentioned Pugin without your comment from Hardy.
How are you finding the social commentary of contrasts?
Too tired just now, but have saved it to read properly tomorrow. printed out beside my keyboard. I'm interested in Ruskin ans have seen plenty of Pugin buildings.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
Probably could have survived one of partygate or a split over whether to lockdown, but not both in the week before the poll.
5. And finally - should we got to Xmas parties? Sorry - but no.
Should we listen to a self-important windbag with no expertise in the field who has been wrong on every major call, belongs to an openly Fascistic organisation and can't even spell 'go to' correctly?
Sorry - but no.
What's the openly fascistic organisation?
I have my doubts about Independent SAGE but I wouldn't call them that.
ISage want to lock us all up for ever regardless of circumstances, and every time their information proves wrong they dispute the facts.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.
SAGE will get their lockdown.
The non boostered are under 50 without underlying conditions- if they're not obese, their hospital odds are negligible.
Last January it was ~100% unvaccinated. We have every reason to expect a significantly better outcome.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
The majority of covid positives on admission are incidental, the majority are not being admitted for covid. These figures just show the very high incidence of omicron in SA
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
The majority of covid positives on admission are incidental, the majority are not being admitted for covid. These figures just show the very high incidence of omicron in SA
Even here, nearly a third of covid hospital numbers are not in for covid, and the share is growing.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 2m TIMES: New curbs to slow virus #TomorrowsPapersToday
===
It's like Groundhog Day with pineapples.
This is life every year from now until (a) the virus becomes so transmissible that nothing will stop it or (b) the state runs out of money leading to socio-economic collapse. Three months of lockdown, three months of crawling slowly out of lockdown, six months shuffling around in masks waiting for the next lockdown, and back to the start again. The situation is basically hopeless.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂
I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.
So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
It was bloody stupid, kept getting people saying "but what if they're not needed" without answering the question "but what if they are?"
The risk/reward ratio was very heavily erring towards the side of getting the jabs even if they might not be necessary.
I feel like part of the problem is that people felt like lockdown was an alternative so going hard vaccines wasn't necessary. It should have been made clear that we would not lockdown under any circumstances, even if the morgues are overflowing, so in that case should we vaccinate or not?
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
I think Monday. I would try the online system over the weekend.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time
Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
I think Monday. I would try the online system over the weekend.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Have you tried rebooking earlier? Tried a different post code?
My mate managed to their brought forward without any issue.
Jabbed on Thursday in a local chemist, half the people there were u40s without an appointment and were getting done within the hour. Might be harder to do that on a weekend day perhaps.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time
Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
If you're in that position and waiting for your booster at this stage, you're not that different to the unvaccinated group you occasionally rant against. Anyone in that position basically just has themsef to blame if they weren't boostered a while ago.
Edit - sorry read your post as over 40 AND diabetic etc. Obviously the first 2 groups elligible. As for the fat, again it's frankly in their own hands.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)
Away from Covid, any one else seeing value in e/w bets on Bottas and Perez, given how the first corner could go on Sunday?
Not even just first corner.
Looks like Max wants to 2 stop, so Lewis would be wise to mirror strategy as long as he's ahead. Which leaves the door open for Bottas on the otherwise superior 1 stop.
That's a good shout, Bottas, Lewis and then Max. Lewis is champ, Bottas leaves with a pressie. My bets cry out for a Lewis/Max 1st lap crash, Perez wins, Bottas second. Watch this space. Whatever happens, it's going to be a nerve wracking day!!
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
On UNS, even on tonight's Comres the Tories would still get 46% in North Shropshire.
That could be enough to hold on unless virtually all Labour 2019 voters tactically vote LD
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
At least it's not the sainted NHS's fault, envy of the world.
This delay is lazy greedy sole trader/ltd liability GPs. Too busy not seeing patients face to face to get jabbing.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
1. It's already way too late to stop the next lockdown 2. When the appointments do open there probably won't be any available for weeks, and the demand for walk-ins will completely swamp the very limited capacity
Lockdown until the Spring, slow crawl out, a bit of freedom in late Summer and Autumn, new variant resets clock to 2020 again, lockdown until Easter 2023, etc, etc. Rinse and repeat.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time
Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
And they'll still be at way lower risk than they were in March 2020.
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.
I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈
I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻
But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time
Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
And they'll still be at way lower risk than they were in March 2020.
Didn't covid knock at your door then ?
She did. And I kicked her out of bed. In the morning
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
I think the UK's vaccination campaign ran out of steam once the second jabs started, it never scaled up from there to maintain the rate of first jabs at a high level. We also were far too slow to make up our minds about vaccinating children, and squandered the opportunity of doing them over the school holidays. Boosters were quite late as well.
We did get off to a very fast start, and that did save a lot of lives in the first half of this year, but overall I'm quite disappointed by how slow we have been since the second jabs begun.
We really need to come up with a plan for much faster full-population vaccination, because next time a variant comes along it may be a lot nastier. I'd want to aim for going from the first sign of a dangerous variant to jabbing with a new vaxx in a couple of months, and completing the job in a couple more.
One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.
We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.
And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).
If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.
But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.
There are direct trains from Birmingham, Wrexham and Chester to Gobowen (Oswestry) and it's pretty easy to change at Shrewsbury for Wem/Whitchurch.
Based on the evidence of twitter the lib Dems have been sending activists from all across GB.
I expect them to narrowly pull it off and have come round to that view in the past few weeks. 40% could even be enough for them and additional labour tactical votes could just be the icing on the cake.
I don't think unfavourable demography is an issue as this is a free hit by election on the Tories/Johnson and can see the seat reverting to a safe tory seat at the next GE.
I don't think there is anything to lose for the lib dems in going for it even though I think this by election won't necessarily have a lasting impact or even directly lead to the downfall of Johnson.
I agree. Trying to be objective, I think that the rise in Labour support with no corresponding LD rise would have made it a good shot for Lab in current circs, but the slow start in serious Labour effort will have locked in the tactical vote for the LDs. I imagine the Labour vote is now stiffening a bit but I can see a result like LD 40 Con 37 Lab 15 RefUK 4 Oth 4.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
Be careful what you wish for has always seemed to me to be one of life's more important proverbs/thoughts.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
The UK has done over 5m more boosters than Germany.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂
I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.
So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
Thank you Nick. Between your studious psephology and our impartial unexcitable (she’s none of those things) Green Member on the ground, are we tipping PB an interesting long shot for next election? A fiver tonight becomes £300 later?
I take what you say about swing back. Counter to that is Libdems may again step aside, and Greens pour resources in. Also counter to what you say, the nothing to see here I would be surprised approach by Labour actually helps these kinds of sneaky shocks, like Patten losing Bath?
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
Be careful what you wish for has always seemed to me to be one of life's more important proverbs/thoughts.
The only thing worse than having no dream is having your dream come true.
Starmer refreshes his front rank team with people who can actually do the job even though the left hate them and...
six point lead.
Dangerous argument. Like saying that because infections are down the restrictions that weren't brought in until that day must be working.
I know. I was being a bit sarcastic. But seriously, the news that decent performers are in the three or four top spots for Labour must have helped a wee bit.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave 2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again
The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:
404 in ICU 419 in High Care
144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.
Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?
Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data
In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)
Week 46: 671
Week 47: 1312
Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648
Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876
These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder
If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
"More densely populated"?
Have you ever been to a South African township where... ooohhhh... the vast majority of the population live?
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave 2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again
The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
There might be a combination of all three coming soon.
More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.
Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂
I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.
So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
Thank you Nick. Between your studious psephology and our impartial unexcitable (she’s none of those things) Green Member on the ground, are we tipping PB an interesting long shot for next election? A fiver tonight becomes £300 later?
I take what you say about swing back. Counter to that is Libdems may again step aside, and Greens pour resources in. Also counter to what you say, the nothing to see here I would be surprised approach by Labour actually helps these kinds of sneaky shocks, like Patten losing Bath?
I think Labour locally sees the danger very clearly, I'm just trying to judge it from a distance. But if you can get 60-1, or even 10-1, it must be value.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
The Europeans are weird. They're like delay, mess up, deny... oh shit... then they kick in at high speed.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
The UK has done over 5m more boosters than Germany.
I wouldn't swap places currently.
AZ-AZ-Pfizer/Moderna is also highly likely to be the most efficacious of routines, which also works in our favour.
(There is a *very* small sample research piece in the US suggesting Pfizer-Pfizer-J&J is also great, but v. small numbers.)
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.
I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈
I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻
But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.
Lecture over 🙂
Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave 2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again
The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
Or until enough of us lose our patience with this bullshit.
I've switched from tolerating lockdowns begrudgingly, to absolutely not doing so. Others seem to have done so too.
Once enough of us say enough is enough, then an alternative is needed.
I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison
We should have been all over this. We weren't
The Europeans are weird. They're like delay, mess up, deny... oh shit... then they kick in at high speed.
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.
I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈
I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻
But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.
Lecture over 🙂
Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
I wonder if you'll be feeling so sanguine in December 2028 when the 9th Annual Winter Lockdown is announced?
But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.
Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).
I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.
Seriously.
Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.
I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈
I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻
But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.
Lecture over 🙂
Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
I wonder if you'll be feeling so sanguine in December 2028 when the 9th Annual Winter Lockdown is announced?
You’re expecting Labour to let us out in the summer?
That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.
Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave 2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again
The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
Or until enough of us lose our patience with this bullshit.
I've switched from tolerating lockdowns begrudgingly, to absolutely not doing so. Others seem to have done so too.
Once enough of us say enough is enough, then an alternative is needed.
Cue people coming along saying that the majority of the population support stronger measures. Missing completely the fact that it only requires a fairly small percentage of the population to say "Nope not doing it" to make any restrictions completely unenforceable. At which point as we have seen many more will join the maskless
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.
I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
On UNS, even on tonight's Comres the Tories would still get 46% in North Shropshire.
That could be enough to hold on unless virtually all Labour 2019 voters tactically vote LD
Quite tight on UNS? But do by elections actually follow current mid term polls or are sort of one offs? Serious question for your thoughts.
I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that. But he might have been happier if he had.
These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
Deepti Gurdasani @dgurdasani1 · 2h Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
Comments
Based on the evidence of twitter the lib Dems have been sending activists from all across GB.
I expect them to narrowly pull it off and have come round to that view in the past few weeks. 40% could even be enough for them and additional labour tactical votes could just be the icing on the cake.
I don't think unfavourable demography is an issue as this is a free hit by election on the Tories/Johnson and can see the seat reverting to a safe tory seat at the next GE.
I don't think there is anything to lose for the lib dems in going for it even though I think this by election won't necessarily have a lasting impact or even directly lead to the downfall of Johnson.
SAGE will get their lockdown.
Loyal Tories will sit on their hands.
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1469426058038554627
never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake.
I'm content calling them fascists.
Last January it was ~100% unvaccinated. We have every reason to expect a significantly better outcome.
We're going to have 30m boosters done by Christmas.
After that Omicron might be adding significant numbers of acquired immunity.
Both stuck on a high wire, we all laugh with him....now with Peppa Pig World etc, it is all laughing at him.
Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us
Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
My mate managed to their brought forward without any issue.
The risk/reward ratio was very heavily erring towards the side of getting the jabs even if they might not be necessary.
I feel like part of the problem is that people felt like lockdown was an alternative so going hard vaccines wasn't necessary. It should have been made clear that we would not lockdown under any circumstances, even if the morgues are overflowing, so in that case should we vaccinate or not?
Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
Edit - sorry read your post as over 40 AND diabetic etc. Obviously the first 2 groups elligible. As for the fat, again it's frankly in their own hands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate
I would still hazard a guess we are more densely populated. And yes I have seen the townships, many times
That could be enough to hold on unless virtually all Labour 2019 voters tactically vote LD
We should have been all over this. We weren't
This delay is lazy greedy sole trader/ltd liability GPs. Too busy not seeing patients face to face to get jabbing.
2. When the appointments do open there probably won't be any available for weeks, and the demand for walk-ins will completely swamp the very limited capacity
Lockdown until the Spring, slow crawl out, a bit of freedom in late Summer and Autumn, new variant resets clock to 2020 again, lockdown until Easter 2023, etc, etc. Rinse and repeat.
Didn't covid knock at your door then ?
I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈
I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻
But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.
Lecture over 🙂
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59615115
Ah, the LibDems. The only party that can outflank Nick Griffin on the right, and yet still seem so nice & cuddly.
We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.
Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'
If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
@johnestevens
·
22m
🚨EXC: Tories sink to worst poll rating in more than two years - as Labour takes six point lead
@SavantaComRes
for
@DailyMailUK
Labour 39 (+2)
Conservative 33 (-5)
Lib Dem 9 (=)
Green 4 (-1)
SNP 5 (=)
Reform 4 (+2)
Changes with 3-5 Dec
six point lead.
We did get off to a very fast start, and that did save a lot of lives in the first half of this year, but overall I'm quite disappointed by how slow we have been since the second jabs begun.
We really need to come up with a plan for much faster full-population vaccination, because next time a variant comes along it may be a lot nastier. I'd want to aim for going from the first sign of a dangerous variant to jabbing with a new vaxx in a couple of months, and completing the job in a couple more.
But here's a what-if to consider.
Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.
It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
But he might have been happier if he had.
I wouldn't swap places currently.
I take what you say about swing back. Counter to that is Libdems may again step aside, and Greens pour resources in. Also counter to what you say, the nothing to see here I would be surprised approach by Labour actually helps these kinds of sneaky shocks, like Patten losing Bath?
2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again
The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
Have you ever been to a South African township where... ooohhhh... the vast majority of the population live?
Certainly the last two for many countries.
Please let it be so
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639174644
At least with the Conservatives we'll be let out to enjoy ourselves for a few months of each year. With Labour it'll be lockdown for the rest of time.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=CHL~ISR~USA~DEU~FRA~BEL~GBR~AUT
Presumably that should read Jess Phillips wasn't good on HIGNFY
And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
(There is a *very* small sample research piece in the US suggesting Pfizer-Pfizer-J&J is also great, but v. small numbers.)
A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk
I've switched from tolerating lockdowns begrudgingly, to absolutely not doing so. Others seem to have done so too.
Once enough of us say enough is enough, then an alternative is needed.
See Austria zooming ahead: that's Austria in lockdown
The one laggard, yet again, is the USA
A sluggish vax campaign now a sluggish booster campaign? America could be in for a really shit winter
BJO - "resign"
(last 5 polls of Corbyn era, AVG Con lead = 23.8%, current AVG Con lead = -5.6%)
Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
First it was, why is Labour not ahead.
Then when Labour was ahead, it was why isn't Labour ahead by 5 points.
Now Labour is ahead by 8 points, it's why isn't Labour ahead by 10 points.
If this is the attitude of the Tory Party, Starmer should just and wait and he'll walk into Downing Street with no effort at all.
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
·
2h
Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.