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The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    They are totally fecked imho.

    Loyal Tories will sit on their hands.
    It's when they start sitting on their thumbs ...
  • So. Failing to deliver boosters after three months rather than six could mean a 2022 new year three month lockdown.

    That's on you JCVI.

    I think?

    I wouldn't despair.

    We're going to have 30m boosters done by Christmas.

    After that Omicron might be adding significant numbers of acquired immunity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021

    On topic: there was a boris downing street Christmas party joke at the sunderland panto ffs

    When everybody is laughing at you, rather than with you, you are done for.

    Both stuck on a high wire, we all laugh with him....now with Peppa Pig World etc, it is all laughing at him.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    The majority of covid positives on admission are incidental, the majority are not being admitted for covid. These figures just show the very high incidence of omicron in SA
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    The majority of covid positives on admission are incidental, the majority are not being admitted for covid. These figures just show the very high incidence of omicron in SA
    Even here, nearly a third of covid hospital numbers are not in for covid, and the share is growing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.
  • Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Have you tried rebooking earlier? Tried a different post code?

    My mate managed to their brought forward without any issue.
  • If Omicron is so bad for UK (see BBC News) then most of the world is fecked. We have v high vaxxing.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    And, here we go...


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    2m
    TIMES: New curbs to slow virus #TomorrowsPapersToday


    ===

    It's like Groundhog Day with pineapples.

    This is life every year from now until (a) the virus becomes so transmissible that nothing will stop it or (b) the state runs out of money leading to socio-economic collapse. Three months of lockdown, three months of crawling slowly out of lockdown, six months shuffling around in masks waiting for the next lockdown, and back to the start again. The situation is basically hopeless.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523



    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.

    Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
    I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂

    I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.

    So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
    Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
  • Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    It was bloody stupid, kept getting people saying "but what if they're not needed" without answering the question "but what if they are?"

    The risk/reward ratio was very heavily erring towards the side of getting the jabs even if they might not be necessary.

    I feel like part of the problem is that people felt like lockdown was an alternative so going hard vaccines wasn't necessary. It should have been made clear that we would not lockdown under any circumstances, even if the morgues are overflowing, so in that case should we vaccinate or not?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

  • If Omicron is so bad for UK (see BBC News) then most of the world is fecked. We have v high vaxxing.

    US had enough trouble getting 2 doses into lots of people and all that "natural immunity" will be up the wahzoo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    I think Monday. I would try the online system over the weekend.
  • maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
    We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time

    Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    I think Monday. I would try the online system over the weekend.
    Thanks. I'll keep checking.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
  • Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Have you tried rebooking earlier? Tried a different post code?

    My mate managed to their brought forward without any issue.
    Jabbed on Thursday in a local chemist, half the people there were u40s without an appointment and were getting done within the hour. Might be harder to do that on a weekend day perhaps.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
    We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time

    Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
    If you're in that position and waiting for your booster at this stage, you're not that different to the unvaccinated group you occasionally rant against. Anyone in that position basically just has themsef to blame if they weren't boostered a while ago.

    Edit - sorry read your post as over 40 AND diabetic etc. Obviously the first 2 groups elligible. As for the fat, again it's frankly in their own hands.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
    My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate


    I would still hazard a guess we are more densely populated. And yes I have seen the townships, many times
  • maaarsh said:

    Timmycool said:

    Away from Covid, any one else seeing value in e/w bets on Bottas and Perez, given how the first corner could go on Sunday?

    Not even just first corner.

    Looks like Max wants to 2 stop, so Lewis would be wise to mirror strategy as long as he's ahead. Which leaves the door open for Bottas on the otherwise superior 1 stop.
    That's a good shout, Bottas, Lewis and then Max. Lewis is champ, Bottas leaves with a pressie. My bets cry out for a Lewis/Max 1st lap crash, Perez wins, Bottas second. Watch this space. Whatever happens, it's going to be a nerve wracking day!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    On UNS, even on tonight's Comres the Tories would still get 46% in North Shropshire.

    That could be enough to hold on unless virtually all Labour 2019 voters tactically vote LD
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    At least it's not the sainted NHS's fault, envy of the world.

    This delay is lazy greedy sole trader/ltd liability GPs. Too busy not seeing patients face to face to get jabbing.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    1. It's already way too late to stop the next lockdown
    2. When the appointments do open there probably won't be any available for weeks, and the demand for walk-ins will completely swamp the very limited capacity

    Lockdown until the Spring, slow crawl out, a bit of freedom in late Summer and Autumn, new variant resets clock to 2020 again, lockdown until Easter 2023, etc, etc. Rinse and repeat.
  • Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
    We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time

    Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
    And they'll still be at way lower risk than they were in March 2020.

    Didn't covid knock at your door then ?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.

    I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈

    I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻

    But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.

    Lecture over 🙂
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59615115

    Ah, the LibDems. The only party that can outflank Nick Griffin on the right, and yet still seem so nice & cuddly.
  • Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
    My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate


    I would still hazard a guess we are more densely populated. And yes I have seen the townships, many times
    South Africa has a similar population density to West Devon (49 ppl/sq km)

  • maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
    Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".

    We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.

    Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'

    If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    How did I manage to reach my 40s without knowing that hexagonal graph paper was a thing sold in high-street stationery stores?
  • John Stevens
    @johnestevens
    ·
    22m
    🚨EXC: Tories sink to worst poll rating in more than two years - as Labour takes six point lead

    @SavantaComRes
    for
    @DailyMailUK


    Labour 39 (+2)
    Conservative 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem 9 (=)
    Green 4 (-1)
    SNP 5 (=)
    Reform 4 (+2)

    Changes with 3-5 Dec
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Az isn't useless that's a very misleading Mail headline - it doesn't have effect against symptomatic infection, but it definitely takes the edge off your hospital and death odds.
    We dunno that. Yet. We certainly know it wanes over time

    Put it another way, I would not like to be over 40 or diabetic or really fat and with two ancient AZ jabs in my arm waiting for Omicron to come knocking before my booster, as it will, very soon
    And they'll still be at way lower risk than they were in March 2020.

    Didn't covid knock at your door then ?
    She did. And I kicked her out of bed. In the morning
  • Starmer refreshes his front rank team with people who can actually do the job even though the left hate them and...

    six point lead.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    I think the UK's vaccination campaign ran out of steam once the second jabs started, it never scaled up from there to maintain the rate of first jabs at a high level. We also were far too slow to make up our minds about vaccinating children, and squandered the opportunity of doing them over the school holidays. Boosters were quite late as well.

    We did get off to a very fast start, and that did save a lot of lives in the first half of this year, but overall I'm quite disappointed by how slow we have been since the second jabs begun.

    We really need to come up with a plan for much faster full-population vaccination, because next time a variant comes along it may be a lot nastier. I'd want to aim for going from the first sign of a dangerous variant to jabbing with a new vaxx in a couple of months, and completing the job in a couple more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Starmer refreshes his front rank team with people who can actually do the job even though the left hate them and...

    six point lead.

    Dangerous argument. Like saying that because infections are down the restrictions that weren't brought in until that day must be working.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    How did I manage to reach my 40s without knowing that hexagonal graph paper was a thing sold in high-street stationery stores?

    You’re not old enough to remember games before the Internet?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    ydoethur said:

    One thing we can safely say the Lib Dems have been bloody awful at in NS is expectations management.

    We're now at the stage where if they don't win they'll look like fools.

    And that's ridiculous as this is a seat where they're actually pretty weak and always have been (since 1988) and the Tories are extremely strong. It's also a seat where demography and politics tell against them, unlike Chesham and Amersham, and finally it's a long way from any possible Lib Dem activists (I don't think there are even direct trains to Birmingham although there are to Manchester).

    If they win it they have caused a genuine earthquake and regardless of the witterings of the OC of the 1st Epping Yeomanry Johnson is done.

    But now, if they lose it, Davey will be under pressure himself.

    There are direct trains from Birmingham, Wrexham and Chester to Gobowen (Oswestry) and it's pretty easy to change at Shrewsbury for Wem/Whitchurch.

    Based on the evidence of twitter the lib Dems have been sending activists from all across GB.

    I expect them to narrowly pull it off and have come round to that view in the past few weeks. 40% could even be enough for them and additional labour tactical votes could just be the icing on the cake.

    I don't think unfavourable demography is an issue as this is a free hit by election on the Tories/Johnson and can see the seat reverting to a safe tory seat at the next GE.

    I don't think there is anything to lose for the lib dems in going for it even though I think this by election won't necessarily have a lasting impact or even directly lead to the downfall of Johnson.
    I agree. Trying to be objective, I think that the rise in Labour support with no corresponding LD rise would have made it a good shot for Lab in current circs, but the slow start in serious Labour effort will have locked in the tactical vote for the LDs. I imagine the Labour vote is now stiffening a bit but I can see a result like LD 40 Con 37 Lab 15 RefUK 4 Oth 4.
  • Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    Hmmm… when you’ve been to SA did you go to the bits you’re not supposed to? Because I dispute the fatter and more densely populated bits of this.
    My bad. You are quite right: SA is even fatter than us (it is extraordinary how quickly less developed countries have caught the obesity bug)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_rate


    I would still hazard a guess we are more densely populated. And yes I have seen the townships, many times
    South Africa has a similar population density to West Devon (49 ppl/sq km)

    Useless measure, you need to know how densely populated the bits which are populated at all are.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Have you tried rebooking earlier? Tried a different post code?

    My mate managed to their brought forward without any issue.
    No spare appointments earlier anywhere in the area as far as I can tell.
  • Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    Be careful what you wish for has always seemed to me to be one of life's more important proverbs/thoughts.
  • Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    The UK has done over 5m more boosters than Germany.

    I wouldn't swap places currently.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497



    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.

    Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
    I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂

    I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.

    So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
    Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
    Thank you Nick. Between your studious psephology and our impartial unexcitable (she’s none of those things) Green Member on the ground, are we tipping PB an interesting long shot for next election? A fiver tonight becomes £300 later?

    I take what you say about swing back. Counter to that is Libdems may again step aside, and Greens pour resources in. Also counter to what you say, the nothing to see here I would be surprised approach by Labour actually helps these kinds of sneaky shocks, like Patten losing Bath?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    Be careful what you wish for has always seemed to me to be one of life's more important proverbs/thoughts.
    The only thing worse than having no dream is having your dream come true.
  • ydoethur said:

    Starmer refreshes his front rank team with people who can actually do the job even though the left hate them and...

    six point lead.

    Dangerous argument. Like saying that because infections are down the restrictions that weren't brought in until that day must be working.
    I know. :smiley: I was being a bit sarcastic. But seriously, the news that decent performers are in the three or four top spots for Labour must have helped a wee bit.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
    Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".

    We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.

    Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'

    If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
    1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave
    2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again

    The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    According to John Campbell in South Africa there are:

    404 in ICU
    419 in High Care

    144 are on ventilators and 734 oxygenated (presumably a few of the oxygenated aren't high care). Omicron is now the dominant variant there, a country of 50 million people.

    Yes they perhaps have more immunity from infection whereas we are more reliant on vaccines. They are demographically younger. But is that enough reason to be panicking?

    Not reason to panic, but reason to be properly concerned, if you look at the wider hospital admissions data

    In week 45 (of 2021) SA had 552 admission (the lowest for many months)

    Week 46: 671

    Week 47: 1312

    Week 48 (the last reliable week of data): 3648

    Week 49 (still being backfilled, so likely to go quite a lot higher): 3876

    These are speedy increases and comparable, at least, to early Delta in SA. If it is milder, Omicron is not that much milder


    See here:

    https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
    If it's not worse than delta in a country with far less vaccination (virtually no one boostered vs vast majority of vulnerable boostered here), why will it be worse than delta here?
    Because we are older, fatter, we are in winter, we are more densely populated, and so on. Also we are relying on so many AZ jabs which, it turns out, are almost entirely useless against OMICRON THE ASTRA-FUCKER

    Of course there are contradictory factors. SA is poorer, much less vaxxed, has so many HIV patients, was even more reliant on natural immunity than us

    Who knows. But a good guess is that Omicron is going to pressure the NHS sufficiently to spook the government who will do a hard lockdown. Quite soon. Yet again
    "More densely populated"?

    Have you ever been to a South African township where... ooohhhh... the vast majority of the population live?
  • John Stevens
    @johnestevens
    ·
    22m
    🚨EXC: Tories sink to worst poll rating in more than two years - as Labour takes six point lead

    @SavantaComRes
    for
    @DailyMailUK


    Labour 39 (+2)
    Conservative 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem 9 (=)
    Green 4 (-1)
    SNP 5 (=)
    Reform 4 (+2)

    Changes with 3-5 Dec

    @HYUFD please explain :lol:
  • pigeon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
    Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".

    We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.

    Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'

    If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
    1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave
    2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again

    The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
    There might be a combination of all three coming soon.

    Certainly the last two for many countries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    The Times report is more optimistic than many, and actually suggests the government is trying its best to avoid a full lockdown

    Please let it be so

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639174644
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    John Stevens
    @johnestevens
    ·
    22m
    🚨EXC: Tories sink to worst poll rating in more than two years - as Labour takes six point lead

    @SavantaComRes
    for
    @DailyMailUK


    Labour 39 (+2)
    Conservative 33 (-5)
    Lib Dem 9 (=)
    Green 4 (-1)
    SNP 5 (=)
    Reform 4 (+2)

    Changes with 3-5 Dec

    @HYUFD please explain :lol:
    I'd be thrilled to watch the fucking Tories burn were it not for the fact that Labour will be even worse.

    At least with the Conservatives we'll be let out to enjoy ourselves for a few months of each year. With Labour it'll be lockdown for the rest of time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523



    More than not bother it was a pact.

    More politically betting cleverly though, it’s not just last election result, or even history where Lib Dems held seat, a factor to look at is local votes since last election? I will look it up if I get a chance because Snooki says greens bin surging through previously solid Labour areas.

    Replied downthread - was a tie in both seats and votes in May.
    I noticed and quickly liked it. Thank you for your help Nick. 🙂

    I then got sidetracked talking about Pugin.

    So you are saying more recent votes in constituency since last election it is very close, Snooks may actually be right? 😯
    Yes, though obvs overdoing it when he says all Labour voters have switched to Green. If I was betting on it I'd predict Labour holds on reduced majorities because (a) in a GE the more apathetic Labour voters will come out more- Greens tend to be young and enthusiastic (b) in a GE all the focus will be on Con vs Lab. Voting Green may seem like sitting out the key struggle (c) I doubt if the LDs will stand down in a GE and (d) incumbency. But the Greens did very well indeed to draw level, no question.
    Thank you Nick. Between your studious psephology and our impartial unexcitable (she’s none of those things) Green Member on the ground, are we tipping PB an interesting long shot for next election? A fiver tonight becomes £300 later?

    I take what you say about swing back. Counter to that is Libdems may again step aside, and Greens pour resources in. Also counter to what you say, the nothing to see here I would be surprised approach by Labour actually helps these kinds of sneaky shocks, like Patten losing Bath?
    I think Labour locally sees the danger very clearly, I'm just trying to judge it from a distance. But if you can get 60-1, or even 10-1, it must be value.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    The Europeans are weird. They're like delay, mess up, deny... oh shit... then they kick in at high speed.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=CHL~ISR~USA~DEU~FRA~BEL~GBR~AUT
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Didn't know you were Dyslexic

    Presumably that should read Jess Phillips wasn't good on HIGNFY
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised

    And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    The UK has done over 5m more boosters than Germany.

    I wouldn't swap places currently.
    AZ-AZ-Pfizer/Moderna is also highly likely to be the most efficacious of routines, which also works in our favour.

    (There is a *very* small sample research piece in the US suggesting Pfizer-Pfizer-J&J is also great, but v. small numbers.)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.

    I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈

    I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻

    But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.

    Lecture over 🙂
    Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2021
    Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    IanB2 said:

    How did I manage to reach my 40s without knowing that hexagonal graph paper was a thing sold in high-street stationery stores?

    You’re not old enough to remember games before the Internet?
    I think my HeroQuest miniatures are still knocking around somewhere, but that wasn't cool enough to use a hexagonal grid. Everything was squares!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    If Omicron is so bad for UK (see BBC News) then most of the world is fecked. We have v high vaxxing.

    We certainly got off to a quick start, but are fairly middling now in terms of percentage double jabbed. Doing better on 3rd doses.

  • pigeon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
    Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".

    We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.

    Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'

    If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
    1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave
    2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again

    The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
    Or until enough of us lose our patience with this bullshit.

    I've switched from tolerating lockdowns begrudgingly, to absolutely not doing so. Others seem to have done so too.

    Once enough of us say enough is enough, then an alternative is needed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    I am 8 days away from my booster appointment. I would like things to hold off. Thanks.

    Any word on when under-40s will be eligible yet? This delay is getting ridiculous. Moreover, it's counterproductive. The faster everyone is eligible the less likely a major fourth wave is.
    13th was the date they claimed the speed up announced 2 weeks ago. But frankly, far better for them to focus on over 40s, no many in their 30s are going to be worse off than feeling a bit rough.
    Germany did over a million jabs today. This is another rank failure by HMG in comparison

    We should have been all over this. We weren't
    The Europeans are weird. They're like delay, mess up, deny... oh shit... then they kick in at high speed.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=CHL~ISR~USA~DEU~FRA~BEL~GBR~AUT
    Almost all of them are synched with just-how-bad-Covid-is in each particular country

    See Austria zooming ahead: that's Austria in lockdown

    The one laggard, yet again, is the USA

    A sluggish vax campaign now a sluggish booster campaign? America could be in for a really shit winter
  • Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk

    Ratner.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Polling swing to Labour since Starmer was elected leader* = 14.7%

    BJO - "resign"

    (last 5 polls of Corbyn era, AVG Con lead = 23.8%, current AVG Con lead = -5.6%)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.

    I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈

    I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻

    But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.

    Lecture over 🙂
    Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
    I wonder if you'll be feeling so sanguine in December 2028 when the 9th Annual Winter Lockdown is announced?
  • Blair inherited a massive lead, Starmer is creating one all by himself
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    What a time to be 39 years old. Hopefully I'll get my booster before the big 40 next summer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    pigeon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Folks.

    I bloody love PB.

    But having had some real life to do these past few hours and popped back I can say that right now it looks to be a super unhealthy place.

    Everyone is getting themselves into all kinds of a state about Covid (not so much pineapple pizza).

    I would advise regular and perhaps extended breaks.

    Seriously.

    Really it’s too many bugs and drugs and arguing.

    I appreciate its normal and healthy PB behaviour for people to have different opinions on things, but where moderation is needed it’s best from ourselves isn’t it in happy decent world? I mean people that think they know it all, blah blah don’t get vaxx, blah blah not a single restriction on my liberty, would they walk up to Mo Salah and tell him how to play football? I’m sensibly enough liberal I think, but if Doctor said to me, you are looking forward to seeing the England game at twickers you and you friends have tickets for but I wouldn’t if I were you it’s too soon after your heart bypass, I would listen to him not think it’s flaming imposition on my liberties. Are there no such Doctors we can trust on these covid precautions? Or is bitching about the hawk ones just much more fun 😈

    I have been out all day disappearing into a super massive black hole of shopping (warmer in London this week than last week) and it’s fine out there under current restrictions for shopping and meeting friends, considering second pandemic winter was never going to go good old normal in my expectations. I’m amazed really government got rebellion on hand after jabbing success has us ahead of the game compared to so many other places- though team effort the getting drugs, the presenting arms on massive scale, the working tirelessly in health services the whole time. Rather than fighting in a sack we should be acknowledging and applauding each other. 👏🏻

    But secondly, filling head with gloomy thoughts or aggressive thoughts is just unhealthy, to keep on top of health got to control mind to take positive approach.

    Lecture over 🙂
    Yes, I agree. There's too much doomsday talk. Quite possibly Omicron won't prove that grim. And if it does, most people will in practice cope and adjust, whether to a high death toll or to new lockdown. It's a difficult patch and we're led by incompetents, but it's really not the end of the world.
    I wonder if you'll be feeling so sanguine in December 2028 when the 9th Annual Winter Lockdown is announced?
    You’re expecting Labour to let us out in the summer?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    pigeon said:

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    The obsession with efficacy vs symptomatic rather than serious disease has been one of the weirder things about a pretty weird virus. It is great if they are effective vs mild disease but that is not the reason we are mostly desperate to get jabbed, it is for protection vs serious disease and that has always been much better than the symptomatic numbers the press use.
    Someone on Sky banging on earlier about how important the figures are for about getting infected because "you can pass on the virus".

    We need to eliminate this line of thinking. The virus is going to get passed on. There is no way to stop that. Passing on the virus should cease to be something we fret over.

    Instead all we should be thinking about is 'when you get infected, how will the affect you?'

    If the vaccines mean that when you get infected that you're not at serious risk then the vaccines have done their jobs. If you pass it on, then whoever you pass it onto needs to be vaccinated too and the same applies to them.
    1. There is precisely zero political will to force vaccination upon those who dig their heels in and refuse, and they are more than sufficient to provide a large continuous supply of gaspers flowing into the hospitals during every disease wave
    2. It wouldn't actually matter if every single one of us, including babies, had had the jab. Each time a new variant comes along, modelling will be produced to suggest that it could spread quickly enough and put a large enough proportion of the infected into hospitals to set them on fire - so we go back into lockdown over and over and over again

    The vaccines are good at improving our chances of surviving the virus but it is now apparent that they're fuck all use for getting us out of the doom loop. We have to live like this, for years if not decades, either until the disease becomes mild enough to live with, or it becomes so transmissible that lockdowns are rendered useless, or until the Government runs completely out of money and everything just goes to shit.
    Or until enough of us lose our patience with this bullshit.

    I've switched from tolerating lockdowns begrudgingly, to absolutely not doing so. Others seem to have done so too.

    Once enough of us say enough is enough, then an alternative is needed.
    Cue people coming along saying that the majority of the population support stronger measures. Missing completely the fact that it only requires a fairly small percentage of the population to say "Nope not doing it" to make any restrictions completely unenforceable. At which point as we have seen many more will join the maskless
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited December 2021


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59615115

    Ah, the LibDems. The only party that can outflank Nick Griffin on the right, and yet still seem so nice & cuddly.

    Those terrible English immigrants to Wales.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk

    So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised

    And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
    It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.

    Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
  • Useful summary chart from Topol:


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Saw a story that the Con campaign in North Shropshire set up a photo op. of the candidate knocking on doors. There was a Con poster in the window but the voter said she would no vote Conservative while 'that charlatan' was in office.

    I'd be amazed if the Tories win the by-election now. I thought they were narrow favourites before Party-gate.
    On UNS, even on tonight's Comres the Tories would still get 46% in North Shropshire.

    That could be enough to hold on unless virtually all Labour 2019 voters tactically vote LD
    Quite tight on UNS? But do by elections actually follow current mid term polls or are sort of one offs? Serious question for your thoughts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised

    And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
    It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.

    Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
    It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk

    So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
    Utter hilarity.

    First it was, why is Labour not ahead.

    Then when Labour was ahead, it was why isn't Labour ahead by 5 points.

    Now Labour is ahead by 8 points, it's why isn't Labour ahead by 10 points.

    If this is the attitude of the Tory Party, Starmer should just and wait and he'll walk into Downing Street with no effort at all.

  • Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited December 2021
    Have we covered the new poll showing Labout 8 points ahead?

    Focalpoll

    CON: 33%
    LAB: 41%
    LD: 7%
    GRN: 6%
    SNP: 5%
    PC: 1%
    OTHER: 1%
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk

    So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
    LAB may well end up 15% clear soon. But for them to be seen as a realistic alternative government they need to keep a decent lead up to the next GE and that is up to three years away.
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour lead doubles to 8 points in a day with YouGov.

    A YouGov poll last night found that Labour had extended its lead over the Tories from four points to eight points in the space of 24 hours. It represents the Conservatives’ worst poll rating since July 2017, in the aftermath of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-covid-restrictions-to-slow-spread-of-omicron-variant-mp0rnqwlk

    So still not 10 points ahead then despite the papers now relentless obsession with producing daily polls to push an agenda
    Utter hilarity.

    First it was, why is Labour not ahead.

    Then when Labour was ahead, it was why isn't Labour ahead by 5 points.

    Now Labour is ahead by 8 points, it's why isn't Labour ahead by 10 points.

    If this is the attitude of the Tory Party, Starmer should just and wait and he'll walk into Downing Street with no effort at all.
    Utter hilarity.

    Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband both had 10% leads, and you think Starmer is nailed to walk into Downing Street due to an 8% one? A lead worse than Jeremy frigging Corbyn achieved???

    Its not bad for him to be in the lead now, but its a 'necessary but not sufficient condition'. Hubris doesn't get you very far.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised

    And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
    It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.

    Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
    You've now leap-frogged me into too much pessimism! After scoffing at me for weeks

    Don't be so despairing, I reckon this next wave will be bad, but it will also be short. That's OMICRON THE PREMATURE EJACULATOR

    It will zzzip through the country in short order. And then there is a reasonable expectation that we will be over the worst, forever (or at least until the next pandemic out of China)

    Ten weeks? Twelve? It is do-able. Grim, but do-able
  • Ben Wood seems like an articulate chap. One to watch for future?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.

    Does that assume the amount of the other variant stays the same?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Useful summary chart from Topol:


    He's prematurely optimistic about hospitalisations. Otherwise a good summary
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Roger said:

    Have we covered the new poll showing Labout 8 points ahead?

    CON: 33%
    LAB: 41%
    LD: 7%
    GRN: 6%
    SNP: 5%
    PC: 1%
    OTHER: 1%

    The Tories can still go lower than this. Maybe 28-29%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188


    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    2h
    Worth remembering that when a variant is doubling every 3 days, even if the hospitalisation rate is half another variant's, that would literally just buy you another 3 days, by which time it'd have the same impact because of doubling of cases.

    I doubt it'll keep doubling every 2 days, delta has never hit a true SEIR model herd immunity threshold, instead it's gone into seemingly random peaks and troughs.
    Omicron will do the same, the big question is at what infection level.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Pippa Crerar on Newsnight saying she thinks there are more revelations on the party(ies) to come.
  • If the Tories drop into the 20s then we're onwards for 1997 repeat
  • IanB2 said:

    Pippa Crerar on Newsnight saying she thinks there are more revelations on the party(ies) to come.

    They have photos of Johnson at one of these parties, I am sure of it
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Mail:


    That 70% is against symptomatic disease, so will be deep in to the 90s for hospital, and we've boostered 22m covering the vast majority of the vulnerable.

    Still looks like a very high bar for Omicron to beat or even near Delta's hospital numbers from last Jan when there was effectively no vaccination.
    Yep. But a small % of the non boosted when the non-boosted is in the tens of millions means shit for NHS already on the floor.

    SAGE will get their lockdown.
    The non boostered are under 50 without underlying conditions- if they're not obese, their hospital odds are negligible.

    Last January it was ~100% unvaccinated. We have every reason to expect a significantly better outcome.
    I'm not. Don't start this again. Not everyone over 50 who wants a booster has had one.
    I'm 55 and the first one I was offered was Wednesday.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Wasn't Jess Phillips good on HIGNFY!

    Following the Johnson path to Downing Street?
    I suspect that BoJo has screwed that particular pooch for anyone trying to follow that path.

    But here's a what-if to consider.

    Suppose Boris had decided to remain a colourful backbench MP for Henley. Free to go on the telly and say outrageous stuff, to make oodles of money writing. Close enough to power to give it a shove, maybe even solve a real problem sometimes. Glamour without too much responsibility.

    It's not what he has wanted all his life, he couldn't have done it. I know that.
    But he might have been happier if he had.
    These epitaphs feel a tad premature. Boris is not stupid, and he is a wily campaigner. As his many lefty opponents have realised

    And he now gets basically a month off as politics closes down and Christmas-with-Covid takes over, again
    It'll be fascinating to see whether yet another lockdown causes the Government's popularity to shoot straight back up (the elderly core vote celebrating) or crash through the floor (as most of us conclude that they're a complete waste of space.) I genuinely have no idea which way the country is going to jump.

    Not that it really matters in the great scheme of things. We're screwed regardless.
    It seems based on that Times link that thankfully the government is doing all it can to avoid another lockdown
    The Government doesn't know its arse from its elbow.

    Anyway, one more round of SAGE modelling projections showing all the hospitals burning to the ground in January and that'll probably be that. Based on the always expect the worst hypothesis of Covid, I'm going for a new lockdown being announced on the previously trailed review date on the 18th, to try to stamp on the plague by cancelling Christmas. But if they "only" go so far as masks and vaxports virtually everywhere, that approach won't survive for more than a couple of weeks.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    The polls are not terrible for the Tories but the satisfying thing is how self inflicted their slump has been.
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