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The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021

    Poll of Conservative members re Boris

    I am not a member but I am in the 21% who think he should resign

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469370138441003010?t=Z9yFO50WsMJYXePY6cdsAQ&s=19

    Interesting, but that 21% is party members of course, as you say, not voters (35% want him to resign vs only 49% who are S&M enthusiasts who love him to bits enough to want to be ruled by him).
  • Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
    A mask keeps my face nice and warm on the walk to and from school. Then again, a balaclava also used to have the same effect... ;)
    Do you wear a mask while walking down the street?
    If it's a busy street I do. Obviously not if I'm more than 2m away from anyone.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
    'Pro EU'

    Yes, it's odd how they turned out to be the competent ones... ;) (runs for cover)

    But I'm unsure what you said was correct anyway. There were plenty who were willing to see May's deal go through - to accept Brexit - but who were stymied only by Boris's ambition. For instance: do you deny Rory Stewart would have been head and shoulders above Boris in this crisis?
    I think we know politicians from all sides really made a complete mess of May's deal

    And I am not a great admirer of Rory
    What's wrong (in your view) with Rory Stewart?

    Apropos of nothing (maybe) occurs to me, that the Leave/Reman cleavage in UK politics is similar to some other spasms of the body politic.

    One example is the Liberal Party split over Home Rule in 1880s. Another is Free Silver versus Gold Standard in USA in 1890s. Ditto Protectionism versus Free Trade on both sides of the Atlantic (and Pacific) but particularly as a issue dividing Unionists at turn of 19th-20th century.

    Pro-Life versus Pro-Choice since 1970s, esp. in US politics, is more recent example.

    Hallmark of these kinds of splits, is that while conflict between parties is important, the fiercest fights (and associated runctions and repercussions) are WITHIN parties.

    One example of this, is the division between supporters of Eugene McCarthy for President in 1968, versus backers of Robert F. Kennedy, who entered the race only after LBJ withdrew. Within the Democratic Party the bitterness of this split lasted for (at least) three decades.
    I have not been impressed with Rory but I know many are

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited December 2021
    Another excellent and illuminating thread from JBMurdoch on the FT, on Omicron

    "NEW thread: data show South Africa’s Omicron wave is resulting in less severe disease and death than past waves, though health officials say it’s too early to be sure, and severe outcomes will continue to climb.

    Story by me,
    @jsphctrl
    ,
    @mroliverbarnes
    : https://ft.com/content/0ee745ce-ac55-46a9-9766-0b419821a79d"

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338725658341381?s=20


    TL;DR: Some good some bad some hmm some scary.

    Most hopeful sign: cases levelling off in Gauteng

    Most worrying sign: Omicron is still surging in hospitalisations, and now deaths, but they are lagging, and they might be lagging even more than normal, because of the sheer speed this variant has taken a hold

    And the whole gin and tonic thing
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
    A mask keeps my face nice and warm on the walk to and from school. Then again, a balaclava also used to have the same effect... ;)
    Do you wear a mask while walking down the street?
    Well, I've run over 2,500 miles this year, and none of it with a mask on, so no, on general, I do not. Then again, since I often run before six in the morning in the countryside, the only things in danger of getting disease from me are sheep. ;)

    However: if I'm out and about and going between shops, I generally cannot be arsed taking it off. So in that case, yes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    So I've spoken to a former Vote Leave staffer who knows people who work(ed) for Boris Johnson and others.

    The restrictions have been brought in for a couple of reasons.

    1) People are going to see family and friends for Christmas, this way they'll be cautious so Christmas won't be the superspreader event.

    2) Boris Johnson and others are convinced that given the sheer number of unjabbed and not thrice jabbed the NHS will be overwhelmed this winter. Not just overwhelmed but the NHS will collapse under that sheer weight. The PM and party that oversees the collapse of the NHS will be out of power for decades, like the winter of discontent on speed.

    (There are a few other reasons, but minor on their own, but cumulatively...)

    If it really is 100 people in a room, 1 has Omicron, 50 get Omicron, I am not sure if that is your reasoning that the proposed plans will ensure this doesn't happen.
    I think he might go for the full lockdown.

    The only issue is furlough,
    If that happens, I imagine Brady will give himself a hernia trying to pick up his postbag. And of course, what will the public reaction be?

    Boris stuck between a rock and hard place.

    Lets hope that Omicron actually it isn't all that bad and vaccines still do the business.
    The public like WFH or being paid to stay at home, they'll love it.
    I'm sure if you asked people with children whether they would like schools closed you would get a different view. There are six year olds who have spent a third of their life under some kind of restrictions and the threat of more to come.
    You don't need to convince me, my youngest struggled with lockdown a lot last year.

    August 2020 as we were preparing him for a return to school he was refusing to leave the house, not even go into the garden, because he was convinced he'd get Covid-19 and kill his grandparents.

    A six/seven year old shouldn't have to deal with that.
    Ditto my daughters. They hate lockdown; one of them is, I fear, permanently damaged by it. I HATE LOCKDOWN

    No one on here apart from, maybe, a few selfish introverted freaks actually wants another lockdown. Lockdowns are HIDEOUS and inhuman

    But the reality is dawning that one form of lockdown, or another, is probably coming. Denying this is futile
    And the tragedy is that, once you acknowledge that more restrictions are a'coming (because it's much easier to say "let the Covidiots die" in the abstract than to actually let them die) then the evidence is that it's better not to hang around, but buckle up and hunker down. If a nation waits, it ends up locking down harder for longer overall. And more people die.

    It's a painful, expensive, miserable way to buy time. But right now, that might be what we need.
    Buy time for what?

    We've done vaccines. What are we buying time for?
    We're nowhere near having done vaccines. We've done them up to 2 doses for only 81% of those aged 12+, less than half of whom have so far had the booster, and for none of the primary school superspreaders under 12. Yet the Government seems incapable of doing more than repeat what has not worked for the other 19% who are the cause of all the problems, namely just asking nicely for them to reconsider as if that's going to make any difference now.

    What annoys me about the Plan B half-measures is that, rather than tackle the idiots who choose not to do the right thing, the Government continues to announce measures which impact uniformly on the whole population. Just about the only thing that anti-vaxxers are going to have to differently is to take a lateral flow test each time they go to a football match etc. How is that going to drive up vaccination rates?

    There should be fiscal carrots and sticks at work, and restrictions on the unvaccinated that others don't have to suffer, allowing those that choose to do the right thing to get on with pretty well their normal lives
    You can't penalise the unvaccinated.

    Because of the higher numbers of ethnic minorities among them.

    Who wants to be in charge of the "No X" policy at the pub?
    Treat it like smoking.

    You want to smoke? Well you can't come in here.
    You want to remain unvaccinated?... Well you can't come in here either.
    Deleted.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    I haven't. Neither has Mrs J. Or loads of friends of ours in the 40-50 range.
    There will be significant protection against serious disease. Plus your second doses will be more recent, so less waning than the UKHSA data.
    Nearly six months ago. We got our booster appointment for six months after the second dose (the first date available when we booked).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    66% of Tory members think Boris should stay Tory leader and PM as do Tory voters by 49% to 35% new Opinium poll finds. However 53% of all voters think Boris should go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469370138441003010?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    At some point, one of the senior cabinet members had got to break cover and reassure the nation about Christmas. People are flying in to see families, at vast expense. Families are planning reunions deferred for two years. Many Christmas parties still planned for the weeks ahead.

    If the government wants to firebreak omicron on 4 Jan, let them say now. As it is, we are in the worst of all possible worlds, with the nation fearing a lockdown over Christmas itself.

    Enough.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
    'Pro EU'

    Yes, it's odd how they turned out to be the competent ones... ;) (runs for cover)

    But I'm unsure what you said was correct anyway. There were plenty who were willing to see May's deal go through - to accept Brexit - but who were stymied only by Boris's ambition. For instance: do you deny Rory Stewart would have been head and shoulders above Boris in this crisis?
    I think we know politicians from all sides really made a complete mess of May's deal

    And I am not a great admirer of Rory
    What's wrong (in your view) with Rory Stewart?

    Apropos of nothing (maybe) occurs to me, that the Leave/Reman cleavage in UK politics is similar to some other spasms of the body politic.

    One example is the Liberal Party split over Home Rule in 1880s. Another is Free Silver versus Gold Standard in USA in 1890s. Ditto Protectionism versus Free Trade on both sides of the Atlantic (and Pacific) but particularly as a issue dividing Unionists at turn of 19th-20th century.

    Pro-Life versus Pro-Choice since 1970s, esp. in US politics, is more recent example.

    Hallmark of these kinds of splits, is that while conflict between parties is important, the fiercest fights (and associated runctions and repercussions) are WITHIN parties.

    One example of this, is the division between supporters of Eugene McCarthy for President in 1968, versus backers of Robert F. Kennedy, who entered the race only after LBJ withdrew. Within the Democratic Party the bitterness of this split lasted for (at least) three decades.
    I have not been impressed with Rory but I know many are

    For a diplomat his geography of the Scottish border was a bit challenged. Thinking Hadrian's Wall was the border for that stunt (which didn't come off). But he is at least rational with something between the ears.
  • Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
    That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
    Yes, I feel fairly carefree right now amid the generalised fear and loathing currently going on. Mind you, I had to laugh reading people complaining about their vaccination symptoms - try having the bloody thing, it's horrible!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005

    Boosters needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop hospitalisation and severe Covid symptoms
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    Me.

    Con hold but Lab + LD vote share will be greater than the Con vote share.
    However Con+RefUK voteshare may also be higher than Lab+LD voteshare
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited December 2021

    At some point, one of the senior cabinet members had got to break cover and reassure the nation about Christmas. People are flying in to see families, at vast expense. Families are planning reunions deferred for two years. Many Christmas parties still planned for the weeks ahead.

    If the government wants to firebreak omicron on 4 Jan, let them say now. As it is, we are in the worst of all possible worlds, with the nation fearing a lockdown over Christmas itself.

    Enough.

    Given it took them until 5 days before Christmas to pull the rug out last year with the Tier 4 malarkey, I don’t have much faith…
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    RIP Mike Nesmith.

    I think I might travel to Rio,
    Using the music for flight....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    The number one story on the BBC is that 'Two vaccine doses doesn't stop you catching Omicron'

    Does this surprise ANYONE. How long has it been common(?) knowledge that vaccination doesn't stop you getting infected.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    RIP Mike Nesmith.

    I think I might travel to Rio,
    Using the music for flight....

    Yes, the most musically innovative of the Monkees, RIP.

    Save the Texas Prairie Chicken!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.

    The trouble with this is it assumes we are run by intelligent strategic thinkers. I err towards Leon being right that the temptation to push the lockdown button will prove irresistible, even if there’s still nothing out of South Africa to justify panic. It takes the PM’s corruption off the front pages and is electorally popular. The trade off is backbenchers won’t like it but we’ve seen just how spineless a group they are in general, and the PM has a considerable client vote on the front benches.
    The notion of the government lurching into a lockdown for any other reason than to squash the virus and protect the NHS is for the wazzo imo. The history of the pandemic tells us this. They've always if anything acted a bit late with restrictions and shown little inclination to keep them once the disease has subsided. Why would this have changed? It hasn't. There's no good reason for thinking they'll be mad keen for an Omicron lockdown unless the choice is that or serious risk of NHS collapse. The outcome to dread is Omicron is so transmissible we don't have this choice. This is top banana on the fear tree for me. But I'm not inclined to pluck it off the tree just yet, let alone unpeel it and take a bite.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    The number one story on the BBC is that 'Two vaccine doses doesn't stop you catching Omicron'

    Does this surprise ANYONE. How long has it been common(?) knowledge that vaccination doesn't stop you getting infected.

    Try reading the article, Einstein.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    One ex Tory MP won't be making a political comeback.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1469360148359569412
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited December 2021
    dr_spyn said:

    One ex Tory MP won't be making a political comeback.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1469360148359569412

    I thought this tweet was going to be about Charles Elphicke.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10296931/Disgraced-Charlie-Elphicke-pictured-time-release-prison.html
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Chris said:

    The number one story on the BBC is that 'Two vaccine doses doesn't stop you catching Omicron'

    Does this surprise ANYONE. How long has it been common(?) knowledge that vaccination doesn't stop you getting infected.

    Try reading the article, Einstein.
    It may be a perfectly good article but the headline is still stupid.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Adam Bolton - What do you think of Boris Johnson's leadership?

    Charlie Sansom(former chair South Basildon Tories) - It's calamitous... the pandemic has really shown how inept he is...
    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1469269229379760136/video/1

    You know he is pro RefUK and anti all restrictions, not just lockdowns but facemasks and vaxpassports too?
    You know that Basildon is some way beyond Barking?
    HYUFD is quirky, but I think Barking is a bit harsh.
    There's a place on Orkney I'm thinking of
    Would that be the village at the junction of the A967 and the A986?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    So the Dom says there are photos of the parties and guest lists, including invites to other departments.

    Like him or not but he's dynamite. Hell hath no fury like a Dom scorned.

    The longer Johnson lies, which is in his bloodstream, the worse it gets for the tories. But I don't believe that they will boot him out. Which is very good for Labour.

    Mike's right. There is fury about this given what we all had to go through last year.

    We're heading for a '97.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
  • Liberals now clear fav for N Shropshire.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Heathener said:

    So the Dom says there are photos of the parties and guest lists, including invites to other departments.

    Like him or not but he's dynamite. Hell hath no fury like a Dom scorned.

    The longer Johnson lies, which is in his bloodstream, the worse it gets for the tories. But I don't believe that they will boot him out. Which is very good for Labour.

    Mike's right. There is fury about this given what we all had to go through last year.

    We're heading for a '97.

    I tend to agree. We could still have a 1992, just about. But it requires a rapid defenestration of Boris Johnson, not for this to drag onto into late spring or summer. By then the damage in voters eyes will be too great.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    No, it isn't. It really isn't. It's an assumption based on previous experience, possibly a good, sensible assumption, but it is NOT the new data we need analysing the efficacy of 2xAZ against Omicron regarding severe disease/death

    Fact is we don't have enough cases to know the answer to this, yet

    This is a very good thread which is actually modestly optimistic, in the circs. And explains all

    "Interpret VE data with caution due to low numbers & some residual uncontrolled biases.

    It is too early to measure [AZ] protection against severe disease, but with earlier variants protection against hospitalisation & death has been largely preserved. All hoping this holds true Crossed fingers"


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469350830864322560?s=20
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Heathener said:

    So the Dom says there are photos of the parties and guest lists, including invites to other departments.

    Like him or not but he's dynamite. Hell hath no fury like a Dom scorned.

    The longer Johnson lies, which is in his bloodstream, the worse it gets for the tories. But I don't believe that they will boot him out. Which is very good for Labour.

    Mike's right. There is fury about this given what we all had to go through last year.

    We're heading for a '97.

    When it boils down to tittle-tattle it really doesn't matter.

    Boris has stained his shirt sufficiently.

    Not sure what Cummings meant to achieve in all this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited December 2021
    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,0001,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word?... deluded.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    dr_spyn said:

    One ex Tory MP won't be making a political comeback.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1469360148359569412

    A horrid man.

    However: I do have instinctual problems with the family courts. This may be unfair, but I do feel they might not be real courts, or justice.

    (And this isn't a party-political point. And I might well be wrong.)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Liberals now clear fav for N Shropshire.

    A huge swing.. I can't find a bet there though beyond my few pounds (15) on Labour.

    This really is a by-election beyind my betting competance. I'm leaving it alone now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "US inflation hits fastest annual pace since 1982" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/f355feab-e9f0-4dfc-bcd7-1759983dfb16
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986


    I have not been impressed with Rory but I know many are



    For a diplomat his geography of the Scottish border was a bit challenged. Thinking Hadrian's Wall was the border for that stunt (which didn't come off). But he is at least rational with something between the ears.

    He grew up pretty much on the border and wrote a whole book about the region and it’s history (“the marches”, a decent book but not as good as the places in between or occupational hazards), so if he surprised if his border geography isn’t pretty good.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I would love it, just love it, if the Tories lose next week :)
    They need an utter shellacking after this week's events.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I would love it, just love it, if the Tories lose next week :)
    They need an utter shellacking after this week's events.

    I think the Tories will win. Too big a hill to climb.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Article of the week in my opinion.

    "The agony of the anti-lockdown centrists
    The public figures we trusted have a embraced a disturbing new normal
    By Daniel Hadas"

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-agony-of-the-anti-lockdown-centrists/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    edited December 2021
    TimS said:



    He grew up pretty much on the border and wrote a whole book about the region and it’s history (“the marches”, a decent book but not as good as the places in between or occupational hazards), so if he surprised if his border geography isn’t pretty good.

    Then again, ISTR he got heavily criticised by some on here in early March 2020 for saying there needed to be action on Covid...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
    Good point except that the demographics of a covid naive population vs one which has had a full whack of delta are significantly different.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    For those following the congressional investigation into UAPs, looks like the bipartisan Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Bill will pass into law.

    https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/12/rubio-gillibrand-gallego-applaud-inclusion-of-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-amendment-in-national-defense-bill

    Quite a big deal in formalising the collation and escalation of military data into UAP under the purview of Congress rather just the DoD, with a so called rapid response unit to be created.

    And intriguingly an initiative to “develop and test scientific theories to account for characteristics and performance of UAP that exceed the known state of the art in science or technology, including in the areas of propulsion, aerodynamic control, signatures, structures, materials etc…to provide the foundation for potential future investments to replicate any such advanced characteristics and performance”.

    Congress is formally mandating the government to reverse engineer UFO’s folks. Just another normal day on planet earth. Anyway as you were to wetting the bed about omicron.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I would love it, just love it, if the Tories lose next week :)
    They need an utter shellacking after this week's events.

    I think the Tories will win. Too big a hill to climb.
    It’s the vote split on the centre-left that will see the Tories home. Perversely, Labour’s rally on the national stage makes a Tory victory more likely. I’ll wait for another couple of national polls to push out the Tory price, then maybe have a dabble if their odds appeal.

  • Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
    Because I was replying to RCS's comment?

    You do make a good point about the data, though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485


    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
    Indeed. But it matters less why outcomes are better with omicron, than the fact that they are better. It’s more likely to be immunity I think - which is good news - but it could also be due to reduced intrinsic malignancy. In any case, the difference in outcome is pronounced. As John Burn-Murdoch in the FT illustrates so neatly with his graphs.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Whatever the politics I'm sure there's some value out there now on political bets. At last!

    I've not been so active (just on BF) - layed 1.57 for Tory most votes and have been opposing Burnham forever.

    But you know, a bet is a bet, and they're all fun! (Except the losers)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    66% of Tory members think Boris should stay Tory leader and PM as do Tory voters by 49% to 35% new Opinium poll finds. However 53% of all voters think Boris should go

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469370138441003010?s=20

    Aka “Less than half of Tory voters want the crooked clown to stay”

    And those are Tory voters from their poll earlier this week - i.e. EXCLUDING the 2019 Tory voters who have already jumped ship in despair.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
    Good point except that the demographics of a covid naive population vs one which has had a full whack of delta are significantly different.
    Indeed. But that would imply that delta immunity is a strong mitigating factor against omicron, which would be fantastic news.

  • Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
    Indeed. But it matters less why outcomes are better with omicron, than the fact that they are better. It’s more likely to be immunity I think - which is good news - but it could also be due to reduced intrinsic malignancy. In any case, the difference in outcome is pronounced. As John Burn-Murdoch in the FT illustrates so neatly with his graphs.
    Yes, fingers crossed. I'm cautiously optimistic, except for what looks like a strong possibility of a very pronounced and rapid peak in cases leading to enough hospitalisations (despite the smaller percentage of hospitalisations) to cause a lot of disruption to the NHS in January.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Lockdowns destroy society.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    The median age might be 28, but there are also 5 million people over the age of 65; there is a very high incidence of HIV (which specifically affects the body's immune system); they have only 2.4 hospital beds per 100,000 people compared to more than 4 in the UK; and vaccine coverage is extremely low compared to the UK.

    So, claiming they are uniquely well positioned to weather Omicron is... what's the best word... deluded?
    Not well positioned, but in a different situation. Covid has been slightly weird in that similar countries, using similar mitigation techniques, have had different outcomes (although mostly within an order of magnitude). There seems to be loads of factors that contribute to progress down the infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-death chain, from underlying illness, genetics, lifestyle, governmental action etc.

    I bet scientists will be writing papers about this for decades, trying to discern underlying meaning from the tealeaves ...
    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
    Good point except that the demographics of a covid naive population vs one which has had a full whack of delta are significantly different.
    Indeed. But that would imply that delta immunity is a strong mitigating factor against omicron, which would be fantastic news.
    Or that delta has already had all the low hanging fruit, and you can't die of omicron if you have already died of delta. So if we have been better than them at getting the old and comorbid through delta we have a larger vulnerable population.
  • HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    No, absolutely not.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277


    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
    I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.

    But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay

    Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA

    Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….

    Too many variables. Too many, too many
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Lockdowns destroy society.
    Well, yes they will, if kept permanently. But you know what? Death destroys society as well, if the levels are high enough.

    We had lockdown last year. It was shite. But society was not destroyed.

    One of the things that freaked me out about before all of this; is how fragile modern life is; how we are all reliant on each other. As an aside, an acquaintance is a power engineer, working at power stations. During the original lockdown, police told him he was not a key worker. Which is true if you don't think of electricity as important for society...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    January 2021 was the nadir of Covid. So far….
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    No, absolutely not.
    Colour me surprised.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    Your voice has more power than anyone else on here. I hope you’re saying this in places other than an anonymous forum.
  • This fun project generates a movie plot from a given poster! 🎉📸 @kartik_godawat and @dsr_ai even wrote a nice blog post explaining how it was implemented. Try out the demo!

    Demo: https://t.co/92tpBll6jC

    Blog: https://t.co/keB48CszX7 https://t.co/iRvr5Q60WN

    https://twitter.com/osanseviero/status/1469300407151255552?t=dpGvlXJJa-Sj4oS3mi76Fw&s=19

    I wonder what it will say about Die Hard?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    January 2021 was the nadir of Covid. So far….
    Yes, but we'd implemented measures a month or more earlier. March 2020 was the time when we had an oh-sh*t moment of having to act with very little information and very little time.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Article of the week in my opinion.

    "The agony of the anti-lockdown centrists
    The public figures we trusted have a embraced a disturbing new normal
    By Daniel Hadas"

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-agony-of-the-anti-lockdown-centrists/

    V interesting - thanks.
  • IanB2 said:

    I’ll just re-post this from last month, as it seems to have aged remarkably well. And remarkably quickly:

    IanB2 said:

    "Teesport is wonderful" says Bozo to an audience at Port of Tyne.

    Could have been worse. Could have been mixing it up with somewhere in the South.

    Still bucket of cold sick levels.
    I remain convinced that he'll eventually leave office discredited, or even disgraced, and will come to be seen as one of the most inadequate PMs of all time.
    Well that was always a given for the likes of you and me, and even many of the Tories who have left the party over the last five years. Whether those views are in time shared by a majority of the Brexit and Blue Rosette fan club I am yet to be convinced. We have not reached that point yet even if many more are angry with him, for the moment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
  • IanB2 said:

    I’ll just re-post this from last month, as it seems to have aged remarkably well. And remarkably quickly:

    IanB2 said:

    "Teesport is wonderful" says Bozo to an audience at Port of Tyne.

    Could have been worse. Could have been mixing it up with somewhere in the South.

    Still bucket of cold sick levels.
    I remain convinced that he'll eventually leave office discredited, or even disgraced, and will come to be seen as one of the most inadequate PMs of all time.
    I said his popularity and brilliantness was overrated when he was soaring high after the vaccines. I was shouted down so many times saying Starmer was not bad and would be a good opposition if Johnson started to fuck things up, as I predicted he would.
  • Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I have bet on the Cons holding.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
    Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over

    It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    January 2021 was the nadir of Covid. So far….
    Yes, but we'd implemented measures a month or more earlier. March 2020 was the time when we had an oh-sh*t moment of having to act with very little information and very little time.
    It quite surpises me that no country seems to have totally messed up. The worst, maybe Brazil, Peru?

    Quite how is it though that it's always bad, but not so bad? How on earth has India managed to be ok?

    Odd doesn't quite capture it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:


    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
    I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.

    But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay

    Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA

    Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….

    Too many variables. Too many, too many
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
    Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over

    It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
    For crying out loud.
  • MattW said:

    I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.

    How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?

    I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.

    Over 80% of vehicles are exempt. If you travel regularly it is very likely cheaper to have a petrol car or a recent diesel than either one that is not exempt or trying to find and maintain a 41 year old car.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    Your voice has more power than anyone else on here. I hope you’re saying this in places other than an anonymous forum.
    If Boris tried to impose another lockdown now there would be a vote of no confidence from Tory MPs within a week and he would be gone
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
    Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over

    It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
    Space... the final frontier.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:


    Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.

    It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
    I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.

    But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay

    Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA

    Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….

    Too many variables. Too many, too many
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
    Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over

    It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
    For crying out loud.
    I confess that last one was aimed specifically at you. Soz
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    It was Alpha that we locked down for last time. There's every chance that even Delta would have been too infective without the vaccines.

    There is zero chance a lockdown will hold Omicron unless it is of the weld people into homes type. And what would be the point? To wait for a variant vaccine?

    I can see us having one to flatten the curve slightly, but I can't see it lasting long. We won't be waiting for months for it to die out at R=0.9. It will be a large peak and a crash.

    Just pray it is generally mild, and the infrastructure keeps going. This is going to look like the epidemic Whitty thought we'd have in March 2020 when 'herd immunity' wasn't a banned phrase.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdown again now AFTER most of the population have been double vaccinated they will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    moonshine said:

    For those following the congressional investigation into UAPs, looks like the bipartisan Gillibrand Amendment to the National Defense Bill will pass into law.

    https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2021/12/rubio-gillibrand-gallego-applaud-inclusion-of-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-amendment-in-national-defense-bill

    Quite a big deal in formalising the collation and escalation of military data into UAP under the purview of Congress rather just the DoD, with a so called rapid response unit to be created.

    And intriguingly an initiative to “develop and test scientific theories to account for characteristics and performance of UAP that exceed the known state of the art in science or technology, including in the areas of propulsion, aerodynamic control, signatures, structures, materials etc…to provide the foundation for potential future investments to replicate any such advanced characteristics and performance”.

    Congress is formally mandating the government to reverse engineer UFO’s folks. Just another normal day on planet earth. Anyway as you were to wetting the bed about omicron.

    The Senate uses ColdFusion???

    Man, no wonder the US is in trouble.
  • HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    Your voice has more power than anyone else on here. I hope you’re saying this in places other than an anonymous forum.
    If Boris tried to impose another lockdown now there would be a vote of no confidence from Tory MPs within a week and he would be gone
    The scientists are going to keep piling on the pressure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
    That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
    Yes, I feel fairly carefree right now amid the generalised fear and loathing currently going on. Mind you, I had to laugh reading people complaining about their vaccination symptoms - try having the bloody thing, it's horrible!
    My wife had it around a month ago, and the booster yesterday. Her booster symptoms were worse than the bug.
    I was quite the opposite - you can’t generalise.

  • Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    53m
    Either it'll all be fine regardless or we're stuffed whatever we do. I don't see a lot in between at present.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
    Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
    They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.

    The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005
    That's not data. That's a doctor's opinion.

    We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON

    I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
    No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.

    The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.

    Just increase booster takeup
    It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?

    It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.

    Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
    I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
    Traitor. :smile:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2

    I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.

    He was not reassured

    Worst case is 1% of us die. Bodies on streets is suboptimal but ultimately cosmetic. Chill.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    And more predictable leaks from the lockdown maxis....

    Strident measures must happen in next few days
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

    Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.

    Yes, it’s coming

    That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1

    How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it

    This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
    It was Alpha that we locked down for last time. There's every chance that even Delta would have been too infective without the vaccines.

    There is zero chance a lockdown will hold Omicron unless it is of the weld people into homes type. And what would be the point? To wait for a variant vaccine?

    I can see us having one to flatten the curve slightly, but I can't see it lasting long. We won't be waiting for months for it to die out at R=0.9. It will be a large peak and a crash.

    Just pray it is generally mild, and the infrastructure keeps going. This is going to look like the epidemic Whitty thought we'd have in March 2020 when 'herd immunity' wasn't a banned phrase.
    Yes, to be serious, this is my consoling thought. OMICRON THE MOFO is such a boss it will burn out very quickly. So any lockdown will perforce be short. Indeed, probably pointless but HMG will feel a need to do “something”
  • Oh.



    Tim Montgomerie @montie

    I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    It's free money if you are right. I'm keeping out except for a shilling on Labour.

    Three hesitations about the result:
    Tories are still the only option for the leave vote, big in NS.
    Rural people don't like being told what to do.
    Labour came second so will the anti Tory vote split between them and LDs and let the Tories in on 38% of the vote and a low turnout.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Oh.



    Tim Montgomerie @montie

    I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.

    I agree with him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    nico679 said:

    RobD said:

    Photos of BoJo at the party. It's over.

    As @FrancisUrquhart asked, where?
    Boris was not at the party so if someone is saying he was then provide the proof
    The lengths you’re going to defend the clown are becoming embarrassing , he is a pathological liar and not fit to be PM .


    He maybe but he was not at the party and even the mirror who sourced the issue have confirmed it

    Do you have a link to this photo
    You are getting a bit excited at your hero having been at the parties. The slimeball is guaranteed to have been involved.
  • Johnson has a nightmare on his hands. The Tory party bedrock looks to be rising up in protest at the looming lockdown and vaxports. E.g. Broxtowe's new tory MP.

    How will he get out of this scrape?
  • Oh.



    Tim Montgomerie @montie

    I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.

    Like the rest of them he wont get fined for it, and if he were an MP he would not vote the govt down. This is not civil disobedience but the elite chumocracy throwing their toys out of the pram.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited December 2021


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    53m
    Either it'll all be fine regardless or we're stuffed whatever we do. I don't see a lot in between at present.

    It could be inbetween....rips through like wildfire, boosters hold up well enough....but still a big up tick in all metrics, especially the anti-vaxxers.
This discussion has been closed.