Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
So every scenario, even where Omicron is a mere third as likely as Delta to hospitalise someone, needs a lockdown by the end of next week. Boris can save Christmas or he can save maybe tens of thousands of lives, but he can't do both.
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
So every scenario, even where Omicron is a mere third as likely as Delta to hospitalise someone, needs a lockdown by the end of next week. Boris can save Christmas or he can save maybe tens of thousands of lives, but he can't do both.
It is clear this is what the SAGErs are laying out as the shit sandwich of choices. Lockdown hard or lockdown harder or everybody dies.....
Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
Yes, I feel fairly carefree right now amid the generalised fear and loathing currently going on. Mind you, I had to laugh reading people complaining about their vaccination symptoms - try having the bloody thing, it's horrible!
My wife had it around a month ago, and the booster yesterday. Her booster symptoms were worse than the bug. I was quite the opposite - you can’t generalise.
I had the booster yesterday and have been aching all day, and tired out. But I can’t imagine this is worse than Covid, although no doubt it will be for some.
Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.
It's free money if you are right. I'm keeping out except for a shilling on Labour.
Three hesitations about the result: Tories are still the only option for the leave vote, big in NS. Rural people don't like being told what to do. Labour came second so will the anti Tory vote split between them and LDs and let the Tories in on 38% of the vote and a low turnout.
Prediction: The vote leave vote will count for nothing in the context of this by-election. It is now a referendum of whether you want to send a massive 'feck you' to Johnson and the whole lot of them in Downing Street.
Even if there are some die hards who value leave above all else, they wont turn out for this one.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Its not PB, it is the establishment narrative setting us up for a lockdown. We all know the drill now. They leak, Sturgeon and Drakeford say its going to be bad, they leak more, #10 say no lockdown, the media pile on, then Boris panics and calls a lockdown (which nobody is happy about, too late for some, never again for others).
Its as predictable as a mainstream hollywood movie script.
Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
Yes, I feel fairly carefree right now amid the generalised fear and loathing currently going on. Mind you, I had to laugh reading people complaining about their vaccination symptoms - try having the bloody thing, it's horrible!
My wife had it around a month ago, and the booster yesterday. Her booster symptoms were worse than the bug. I was quite the opposite - you can’t generalise.
I had the booster yesterday and have been aching all day, and tired out. But I can’t imagine this is worse than Covid, although no doubt it will be for some.
Mild but similar here. Hopefully both back to 110% tomorrow.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
I agree with him.
Wife rolls in from massive Christmas shopping. Possibly slightly drunk. “I am never locking down ever again. Boris is a liar. That poor woman [Allegra].”
Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.
But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay
Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA
Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
Yes, it’s coming
That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1
How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it
This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over
It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
For crying out loud.
I confess that last one was aimed specifically at you. Soz
I am genuinely thinking about taking some time off from PB, for reasons of my mental health. I can’t face another lockdown. I barely made it through the last one with reaching breaking point. I like people. I’d rather take my chances with the virus than be locked indoors again. I’m scared of lockdown. I’m terrified of it. I’m not scared of covid.
I agree with nearly all of this. Except I don't feel a need to quit PB, and I am not quite terrified of lockdown. Tho I am deeply apprehensive about it, and sometimes I edge close to total gloom - and then my coping mechanism is dark humour (which I also employ if I am just bored)
Sorry, sincerely, if this disquiets you. But we each have our own brands of copium to smoke.
I too would rather take my (pretty good) chances with Covid than go through another three months of lonely winter misery, in a world deep-frozen like an ugly Narnia
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
Nah they will moan and groan but too frit to stand up to the PM in a contest.
I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
I agree with him.
Wife rolls in from massive Christmas shopping. Possibly slightly drunk. “I am never locking down ever again. Boris is a liar. That poor woman [Allegra].”
She’s not in any way political.
Oh that's interesting. Cut through. And not in a good way for the cad in chief.
Smart friend of mine hasn’t seen his parents and siblings for 2 years. Now says he doesn’t expect to see them for another 2
I think that’s way too pessimistic, and told him so. He will soon see them in the afterlife.
He was not reassured
Omicron is a big setback. There's no two ways about it. But this winter was always going to be grim. People just hadn't taken that on board. I still think this will the last winter like this.
I'm beginning to think that @contrarian (and @TOPPING ?) were right last year and that lockdown even in March last year or January this year was a bad idea. The way that the government, media and almost everyone else has been hooked on them even post-vaccines is showing why giving that power to the government was a terrible idea.
Would have been far better to let people who wanted to lock themselves down the option to do so as @rcs1000 has said happens in the past and for everyone else to live as normal.
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
So every scenario, even where Omicron is a mere third as likely as Delta to hospitalise someone, needs a lockdown by the end of next week. Boris can save Christmas or he can save maybe tens of thousands of lives, but he can't do both.
It is clear this is what the SAGErs are laying out as the shit sandwich of choices. Lockdown hard or lockdown harder or everybody dies.....
I do broadly think that they are right. I don't think there are any good options left, we can only choose the least harmful, whatever that will turn out to be as we won't know in advance. I'm reconciled now to the possibility of a lockdown soon, and that 2022 certainly won't be the end of it, nor have we necessarily seen the worst of covid yet.
It is your beloved leader Ms Sturgeon who has gone further than any UK leader, and told you Scots not to have any Xmas parties
I will be attending Xmas parties unless banned from doing so and think they should go ahead, but surely Sturgeon message is better than Englands message which seems to be:
You can go to Xmas parties, but you shouldn't, unless you are supporting a local business, and it is very safe, unless rates of Covid go up in which case you shouldn't. And if you go to parties don't meet anyone. Oh, and work from home but go the Xmas party.....unless it is No 10s party which is cancelled this year now it is legal and held last year when it is illegal......
Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.
But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay
Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA
Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
Yes, it’s coming
That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1
How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it
This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over
It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
For crying out loud.
I confess that last one was aimed specifically at you. Soz
I am genuinely thinking about taking some time off from PB, for reasons of my mental health. I can’t face another lockdown. I barely made it through the last one with reaching breaking point. I like people. I’d rather take my chances with the virus than be locked indoors again. I’m scared of lockdown. I’m terrified of it. I’m not scared of covid.
I agree with nearly all of this. Except I don't feel a need to quit PB, and I am not quite terrified of lockdown. Tho I am deeply apprehensive about it, and sometimes I edge close to total gloom - and then my coping mechanism is dark humour (which I also employ if I am just bored)
Sorry, sincerely, if this disquiets you. But we each have our own brands of copium to smoke.
I too would rather take my (pretty good) chances with Covid than go through another three months of lonely winter misery, in a world deep-frozen like an ugly Narnia
No worries and thanks for the reply. I’m generally fairly thick skinned as you yourself have noted. I’m just shit scared of another lockdown so I am perhaps oversensitive to your gallows humour.
Its not PB, it is the establishment narrative setting us up for a lockdown. We all know the drill now. They leak, Sturgeon and Drakeford say its going to be bad, they leak more, #10 say no lockdown, the media pile on, then Boris panics and calls a lockdown (which nobody is happy about, too late for some, never again for others).
Its as predictable as a mainstream hollywood movie script.
Yep. There is a massive Ground Hog Day feel to it all at the moment.*
So the Dom says there are photos of the parties and guest lists, including invites to other departments.
Like him or not but he's dynamite. Hell hath no fury like a Dom scorned.
The longer Johnson lies, which is in his bloodstream, the worse it gets for the tories. But I don't believe that they will boot him out. Which is very good for Labour.
Mike's right. There is fury about this given what we all had to go through last year.
We're heading for a '97.
The total weirdness of UK politics. Two eternal truths: Labour never completely get that we won't vote for the Labour left; the Tories never completely get that being in government means you rein in your Bullingdon/city slicker/on the make/entitlement instincts at least in public.
And all the Black Swans have arrived at once.
But those who are sure that we are back to '97 need to bear in mind that Labour is still the party of Burgon, Abbott, Jezza's mates and that all those decent people were pushed out by anti semitism. This is far from a done deal, even if (as I think) Boris is now a discounted and remaindered publication.
Colin Angus @VictimOfMaths · 2h For the first time in ages, the places with the highest rates of COVID hospital admissions aren't in the North of England. Instead they are in East Sussex and along parts of the South Coast (plus Nuneaton).
Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.
But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay
Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA
Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
Yes, it’s coming
That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1
How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it
This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over
It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
For crying out loud.
I confess that last one was aimed specifically at you. Soz
I am genuinely thinking about taking some time off from PB, for reasons of my mental health. I can’t face another lockdown. I barely made it through the last one with reaching breaking point. I like people. I’d rather take my chances with the virus than be locked indoors again. I’m scared of lockdown. I’m terrified of it. I’m not scared of covid.
I agree with nearly all of this. Except I don't feel a need to quit PB, and I am not quite terrified of lockdown. Tho I am deeply apprehensive about it, and sometimes I edge close to total gloom - and then my coping mechanism is dark humour (which I also employ if I am just bored)
Sorry, sincerely, if this disquiets you. But we each have our own brands of copium to smoke.
I too would rather take my (pretty good) chances with Covid than go through another three months of lonely winter misery, in a world deep-frozen like an ugly Narnia
No worries and thanks for the reply. I’m generally fairly thick skinned as you yourself have noted. I’m just shit scared of another lockdown so I am perhaps oversensitive to your gallows humour.
I'm with you on another lockdown. Starting to lose sleep over it to be honest. Stupidly, I thought we were done with all that shit.
Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
Yes, I feel fairly carefree right now amid the generalised fear and loathing currently going on. Mind you, I had to laugh reading people complaining about their vaccination symptoms - try having the bloody thing, it's horrible!
My wife had it around a month ago, and the booster yesterday. Her booster symptoms were worse than the bug. I was quite the opposite - you can’t generalise.
I had the booster yesterday and have been aching all day, and tired out. But I can’t imagine this is worse than Covid, although no doubt it will be for some.
Mild but similar here. Hopefully both back to 110% tomorrow.
I’ve managed to WFH and been fairly productive- so it can’t be that bad.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Again, the data from South Africa is comparing South Africa (Omicron) with South Africa (Delta). Why are so many posters struggling to grasp this? It’s not comparing SA with a far flung nation that has entirely different demographics. It is comparing SA with itself.
It's comparing delta on a largely unvaxxed and not previously infected population with omicron on a partially vaxxed and largely previously-infected population. We really don't know whether the reduced severity is a feature of omicron as opposed to delta, or a feature of the fact that people have built up much more immunity now. Probably mainly the latter, but it could be a mixture of the two.
I’m afraid we don’t even know THIS. Read all the threads I posted. The reduced severity (which certainly exists) might simply be a product of Omicron’s Rt. It is spreading so explosively that hospitalisations and deaths, which always lag, might be lagging even further behind. But they are in the post.
But let’s say your optimistic take is right. Yay
Other factors: seasonality. It is summer and everyone is outdoors in SA
Cold European countries, like the UK (esp Scotland) and Denmark are up and running with Omicron. Tho of course they also do the best sequencing….
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
Yes, it’s coming
That document says it wants to get Omicron’s R below R1
How the fuck do you do that with a virus maybe 4-5 times more infectious than Delta? Recall what we had to do to get that under 1? We barely managed it
This suggests a lockdown much more stringent than lockdown 3. Imagine
How we ever found out where that claim from scottish official of 100 people in a room, 1 with omicron, 50 will get it....because if its that bad, supermarket trip is just going to be regular super spreading event.
Soon as I read that, I knew it was all over
It’s just a question of how it ends. Human society as we know it. Bang or whimper?
For crying out loud.
I confess that last one was aimed specifically at you. Soz
I am genuinely thinking about taking some time off from PB, for reasons of my mental health. I can’t face another lockdown. I barely made it through the last one with reaching breaking point. I like people. I’d rather take my chances with the virus than be locked indoors again. I’m scared of lockdown. I’m terrified of it. I’m not scared of covid.
I agree with nearly all of this. Except I don't feel a need to quit PB, and I am not quite terrified of lockdown. Tho I am deeply apprehensive about it, and sometimes I edge close to total gloom - and then my coping mechanism is dark humour (which I also employ if I am just bored)
Sorry, sincerely, if this disquiets you. But we each have our own brands of copium to smoke.
I too would rather take my (pretty good) chances with Covid than go through another three months of lonely winter misery, in a world deep-frozen like an ugly Narnia
No worries and thanks for the reply. I’m generally fairly thick skinned as you yourself have noted. I’m just shit scared of another lockdown so I am perhaps oversensitive to your gallows humour.
I'm with you on another lockdown. Starting to lose sleep over it to be honest. Stupidly, I thought we were done with all that shit.
You'll be able to catch up on any lost sleep anyway.
It is your beloved leader Ms Sturgeon who has gone further than any UK leader, and told you Scots not to have any Xmas parties
I will be attending Xmas parties unless banned from doing so and think they should go ahead, but surely Sturgeon message is better than Englands message which seems to be:
You can go to Xmas parties, but you shouldn't, unless you are supporting a local business, and it is very safe, unless rates of Covid go up in which case you shouldn't. And if you go to parties don't meet anyone. Oh, and work from home but go the Xmas party.....unless it is No 10s party which is cancelled this year now it is legal and held last year when it is illegal......
With regards to lockdown, and ignoring the PM's other flaws in many other fields, I'd far rather have Boris in charge than Sturgeon. At least with Boris you get the sense he might just resist the Zerocovidians. He did give us Freedom Day (unlike Sturgeon) which, dammit, so nearly worked. Just two weeks ago it looked like Britain - or England - had this bug beat
I have not been impressed with Rory but I know many are
For a diplomat his geography of the Scottish border was a bit challenged. Thinking Hadrian's Wall was the border for that stunt (which didn't come off). But he is at least rational with something between the ears.
He grew up pretty much on the border and wrote a whole book about the region and it’s history (“the marches”, a decent book but not as good as the places in between or occupational hazards), so if he surprised if his border geography isn’t pretty good.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Report from Germany today, 7 out of 8 people who got together and were triple jabbed got it.
The UK government has been “presented with some very challenging new information” about the Omicron variant and will keep restrictions “under review”, Michael Gove said after he chaired a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee this afternoon. He told Sky News: “We know that we have the highest number of Covid infections across the United Kingdom recorded today, since 9 January. We know that the Omicron variant is doubling every two to three days in England, and possibly even faster in Scotland. We knew that 30% of reported cases in London are that variant. And of course, we only identified the Omicron variant in this country a fortnight ago. So we absolutely do need to keep everything under review, but I think the approach that we’re taking is proportionate. We recognise the importance of balancing people’s ability to get on with their lives with a need to protect against this virus, but action is absolutely required, and as new data comes in, we will consider what action we do require to take in the face of that data.”
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Er, that is the exact same anecdote that Foxy told about HIS brother earlier today? Or am I misremembering?
I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
I agree with him.
100% agreed. 💯
I won't actively disobey what I am required to do by law. But I will be absolutely livid if the Government extends restictions further by once again applying them collectively to the whole population. If more restrictions are necessary, they should apply to the unvaccinated who are almost solely responsible for keeping us in this mess by their idiotic choice to ignore the only sustainable way out.
So: - rather than closing schools or sending whole year groups home, just send home unvaccinated children - working from home to apply only to the unvaccinated - vaccine passports only whereever venues are restricted, so that the unvaccinated can't get around restrictions by using lateral flow tests - and financial carrots to get vaccinated, and financial sticks to those who choose not to etc, etc
Resolute measures will both isolate those most likely to do the spreading and get the vaccination rate up.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
Lockdown is coming folks, as the famous saying from tits and dragons. The modellers are going to keep producing the scary graphs until Boris gives in.
So every scenario, even where Omicron is a mere third as likely as Delta to hospitalise someone, needs a lockdown by the end of next week. Boris can save Christmas or he can save maybe tens of thousands of lives, but he can't do both.
It is clear this is what the SAGErs are laying out as the shit sandwich of choices. Lockdown hard or lockdown harder or everybody dies.....
I do broadly think that they are right. I don't think there are any good options left, we can only choose the least harmful, whatever that will turn out to be as we won't know in advance. I'm reconciled now to the possibility of a lockdown soon, and that 2022 certainly won't be the end of it, nor have we necessarily seen the worst of covid yet.
There are very few tools in the box unfortunately. Vaccines are obviously the first line of the defence. Beyond that you have mass testing and passports, which are difficult to organise and there isn't enough time anyway. So you are left with various forms of lockdown, which we know do work in limiting spread. It doesn't look good.
PS I am hopeful that we won't face another Covid winter after this one.
I'm beginning to think that @contrarian (and @TOPPING ?) were right last year and that lockdown even in March last year or January this year was a bad idea. The way that the government, media and almost everyone else has been hooked on them even post-vaccines is showing why giving that power to the government was a terrible idea.
Would have been far better to let people who wanted to lock themselves down the option to do so as @rcs1000 has said happens in the past and for everyone else to live as normal.
We need to say "never again" and mean it.
Is there any reason why risk segmentation shouldn’t be revived as an idea? If you are elderly, infirm or unvaxxed, avoid public places. It was poo-pood on here but perhaps at some stage we are going to have to consider it?
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
I will actively engage in civil disobedience if the government attempts another lockdown. Enough is enough.
I agree with him.
100% agreed. 💯
I won't actively disobey what I am required to do by law. But I will be absolutely livid if the Government extends restictions further by once again applying them collectively to the whole population. If more restrictions are necessary, they should apply to the unvaccinated who are almost solely responsible for keeping us in this mess by their idiotic choice to ignore the only sustainable way out.
So: - rather than closing schools or sending whole year groups home, just send home unvaccinated children - working from home to apply only to the unvaccinated - vaccine passports only whereever venues are restricted, so that the unvaccinated can't get around restrictions by using lateral flow tests - and financial carrots to get vaccinated, and financial sticks to those who choose not to etc, etc
Resolute measures will both isolate those most likely to do the spreading and get the vaccination rate up.
Covid Tax for the unvaccinated like we tax smokers.
£600 per annum NHS poll tax on every adult (ie £50 per month) but zero-rated if you are vaccinated.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
A non trivial percentage of the Omicron hospitalised end up in ICU....
"About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"
I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.
How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?
I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.
Over 80% of vehicles are exempt. If you travel regularly it is very likely cheaper to have a petrol car or a recent diesel than either one that is not exempt or trying to find and maintain a 41 year old car.
ULEZ is the one great triumph of the Khan mayoralty. It’s unpopular with some, but unquestionably saving the health and lives of many.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Er, that is the exact same anecdote that Foxy told about HIS brother earlier today? Or am I misremembering?
Maybe he forgot to quote the lady
He did quote her. He added a link. Admittedly I thought it was his brother to start with.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
Indeed. Although as others have mentioned there is the Long Covid aspect. But the attrition rate there is v high. 17 out of 21.
I am guessing it is that kind of data that made Mikey Gove say that COBRA has seen some very disturbing data this afternoon.
We went to my son's xmas nativity play this week. The primary school headteacher asked us to do LFT tests before and then sanitise our hands before entering, along with wearing masks. He said that it was because of our good behaviour in following these rules, that we could have an in person event rather than doing it on zoom. So we had earned the privilege of seeing our children in person by following the rules. He then said that he expected this to be going on for many years, the new normal. None of us; neither him, the teachers, nor any of the parents; believed a word of it, but everyone just went along with it.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Report from Germany today, 7 out of 8 people who got together and were triple jabbed got it.
Not that it makes much difference but presumably it is 6 or less out of 8 who caught it at the event as 1 or more went in with it.
I'm beginning to think that @contrarian (and @TOPPING ?) were right last year and that lockdown even in March last year or January this year was a bad idea. The way that the government, media and almost everyone else has been hooked on them even post-vaccines is showing why giving that power to the government was a terrible idea.
Would have been far better to let people who wanted to lock themselves down the option to do so as @rcs1000 has said happens in the past and for everyone else to live as normal.
We need to say "never again" and mean it.
That's the benefit of hindsight.
In March 2020, there was real fear and the pictures coming in from northern Italy and New York suggested if measures weren't taken the hospitals would be unable to cope and the health service would have been close to collapse.
After the initial restrictions were eased, we enjoyed an idyllic summer of very low case and death numbers and people got complacent so by the autumn and especially with the return to school, the case numbers rose again and of course we had a much stronger testing regimen in place so we were capturing a more accurate picture of the cases than had been the case in the spring when, to be blunt, we knew almost nothing.
The coming of the vaccines has been the seminal event - it's been just over a year and we've administered 130 million separate vaccinations - fantastic, no question. It or they have changed the narrative and your argument against the imposition of further restrictions carries much more weight than it did twelve months ago when almost no one was vaccinated and the Delta variant was loose.
Then, again, the pressure was on the health services, the ICUs and the oxygen supplies - to prevent further transmission until the vaccinations could be widely administered, the only option the Government had was to reduce inter-personal contact.
I'm no fan of this Government and mistakes were made especially over not closing the borders in the spring of 2020 and relating to care homes but a lot has gone right especially in the vaccination rollout.
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown 2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
I really not. Its going to screw my new venture...WFH is already a pain in the ass.
I am just making it clear how the narrative is being developed, just like previous lockdowns. That sky news clip is classic bias by omission, where it coupd easily emphasis how good triple jab is.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Er, that is the exact same anecdote that Foxy told about HIS brother earlier today? Or am I misremembering?
Maybe he forgot to quote the lady
He did quote her. He added a link. Admittedly I thought it was his brother to start with.
Fair enough. I withdraw any slur on Dr Foxy’s veracity
I remember when the faithful told us it was all over in the summer, COVID is done they said. Two vaccines to freedom.
Wrong again
There's been a little IncorrectHorseBattery along the way too.
I think I've rarely been wrong on COVID, to be fair.
Your middle name isn't quite yet 'the oracle' though. No fun though in being right, alas.
Fair point - I hate being right.
Ah, one day you'll be right about a good thing that you can jump up and down about. Because I'm so wise and as it happens so often I always make sure I have a proper belt on my trousers.
I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.
How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?
I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.
Over 80% of vehicles are exempt. If you travel regularly it is very likely cheaper to have a petrol car or a recent diesel than either one that is not exempt or trying to find and maintain a 41 year old car.
ULEZ is the one great triumph of the Khan mayoralty. It’s unpopular with some, but unquestionably saving the health and lives of many.
If it is impacting <20% of vehicles, probably less than 5% of voters so politically not costly despite being unpopular with some. Perhaps more of an issue in outer London Westminster marginals than it is for him as mayor.
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown 2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
PS everyone on here told me Greens are not picking up two Seats in Bristol including from thingum debenairs but my friend is amazingly amazingly bullish saying Greens now own nearly every Labour vote in Bristol since last general election, so are you missing something? Do you have any recent data discounting sysmiec shift 🤔
Looking at the circumstantial evidence I think a lockdown is inevitable. Harder and more brutal than previous ones. They know that the new variant spreads exponentially, and there will be a non trivial hospitalisation and death rate, so we are back to 'stay home, save lives, save the NHS' etc.
Now a case of when Johnson has to break the bad news rather than 'if'.
And when we do lockdown - the next day it will be 'when can you release us from this terrible lockdown?'.
Obviously.....and whatever rules there are, they are too confusing and can i ride a unicycle backwards to the supermakret while singing without wearing a mask....
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
Boris is going to look much older than that in 30 years !
He looks much rougher than that now!
In the next 30 years he will learn how to groom properly. Really?
Where does he get all that extra hair from for a start they’ve given him more sensible hairstyle for sure, the parting of a proper primeminister though HYUFD will bemoan its on left and wonder about purity
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
If the virus just makes you feel 'rough' for a few days, why should we care about that?
The vaccine has done the job.
For the nth time, it's the small but non-trivial percentage who has to go to hospital that is the issue.
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
Let the NHS treat as many as it has the capacity to treat and if it runs out of capacity and they die then they die.
My favourite it when people mock the idea of more beds because we don't have the staff.
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
I have speculated that the way we have dealt with Covid could ruin us. The way this happens is by shutting down the economy to save lives, in addition to spending vast amounts on testing infrastructure and treatments including vaccines. You cannot build or sustain an economy based on these principles. Such a society literally cannot survive. It will fall through its failure to accept mortality, whilst being obsessed with a mythical dream of scientific progress.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
That's one reason it is a Tory safe seat.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.
Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all
Nightmare
The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
It is? Against Omicron? AZ?
I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
We have no data, as far as I can see, for the continued efficacy of AZx2 against serious outcomes from OMICRON
I get that many experts ANTICIPATE there will be some continued protection, but we have no lab tests to prove it
No that is scientific analysis based on vaccinated with Omicron.
The evidence is clear, boosters my be needed to stop symptomatic Covid from Omicron but double vaccination should still stop most cases of hospitalisation from it. There must absolutely be no further lockdowns. None.
Just increase booster takeup
It’s great to hear this from you. But how does that square with your unwavering support for the PM, given it seems he personally bounced both the quad and cabinet into the latest round of restrictions, and noting Gove’s reported comments after Cobra?
It’s crystal clear that we are being warmed up for a lockdown, with an ideological battle underway between backbenchers and Boris and his outriders.
Fascinated to understand how you square all this in your head.
I am prepared to support Vaxports as a means of encouraging more people to get vaccinated and get their boosters. I will not support another lockdown
You will not support any lockdown? Ever? Even if the situation gets (heaven forbid) much worse than it was in March 2020?
Never again. Because if we impose a lockdowm again now AFTER most of the population had been double vaccinated there will be here forever and the economy near destroyed. As every time there is a new variant there will be another lockdown
They set it up today, 2 jabs no good...more one lockdown to get triple jabs and save the nhs. Its a very clear narrative from the on record and off record briefins from the SAGE lot.
The problem is Boris in a powerful enough of a position to say no against it and the media onslaught.
Why would he want to say no? The news for the two weeks before Xmas will either be about Boris lying over last years Xmas party and being late saving lives or it will be about lockdown?
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
Because his own party will try and sack him....Graham Brady's postbag will be more full than Santas sack.
I heard a rumour that all the Tory MPs have been ordered to go to North Shropshire tomorrow, the last Saturday of the byelection campaign. It will be very interesting to see just how many do turn up there.
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
It isn't an easy constituency to get to in a hurry. The main town doesn't have a train station for instance.
If you are going to be any use there, you’d need a car anyway.
The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.
Comments
I would not be amazed if it is true. And parliament won't be sitting.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals
Even if there are some die hards who value leave above all else, they wont turn out for this one.
Still, people assume the man has principles he will (in this case, try and) stick to despite all evidence to the contrary. His decisions are always based on short term perceptions.
(PS. Sorry
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1534017/UK-trade-data-post-Brexit-GDP-EU-evg
Its as predictable as a mainstream hollywood movie script.
She’s not in any way political.
Sorry, sincerely, if this disquiets you. But we each have our own brands of copium to smoke.
I too would rather take my (pretty good) chances with Covid than go through another three months of lonely winter misery, in a world deep-frozen like an ugly Narnia
My 308 has done about 4,000 miles since the garage topped it up for me, haven't had any lights come on..
More narrative building...all red lights flashing, how dangerous is it, insufficient data.
Would have been far better to let people who wanted to lock themselves down the option to do so as @rcs1000 has said happens in the past and for everyone else to live as normal.
We need to say "never again" and mean it.
I am nihilistic but chirpy
You can go to Xmas parties, but you shouldn't, unless you are supporting a local business, and it is very safe, unless rates of Covid go up in which case you shouldn't. And if you go to parties don't meet anyone. Oh, and work from home but go the Xmas party.....unless it is No 10s party which is cancelled this year now it is legal and held last year when it is illegal......
* Not my metaphor - from Spectator.
And all the Black Swans have arrived at once.
But those who are sure that we are back to '97 need to bear in mind that Labour is still the party of Burgon, Abbott, Jezza's mates and that all those decent people were pushed out by anti semitism. This is far from a done deal, even if (as I think) Boris is now a discounted and remaindered publication.
@VictimOfMaths
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2h
For the first time in ages, the places with the highest rates of COVID hospital admissions aren't in the North of England. Instead they are in East Sussex and along parts of the South Coast (plus Nuneaton).
This report is from September.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/lib-dems-are-the-principled-opposition-to-covid-vaccine-passports-davey-40932465.html
Victoria Derbyshire
@vicderbyshire
My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.
Now this new soup tureen of shit. Fucksake.
Gin
For a diplomat his geography of the Scottish border was a bit challenged. Thinking Hadrian's Wall was the border for that stunt (which didn't come off). But he is at least rational with something between the ears.
He grew up pretty much on the border and wrote a whole book about the region and it’s history (“the marches”, a decent book but not as good as the places in between or occupational hazards), so if he surprised if his border geography isn’t pretty good.
Quite, which is why I was surprised at the time.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/10/covid-news-live-australia-to-offer-jabs-to-children-aged-five-to-11-us-omicron-cases-mostly-mild-cdc-chief-says
So Omicron will be on top in London by the end of this week.
Maybe he forgot to quote the lady
So:
- rather than closing schools or sending whole year groups home, just send home unvaccinated children
- working from home to apply only to the unvaccinated
- vaccine passports only whereever venues are restricted, so that the unvaccinated can't get around restrictions by using lateral flow tests
- and financial carrots to get vaccinated, and financial sticks to those who choose not to
etc, etc
Resolute measures will both isolate those most likely to do the spreading and get the vaccination rate up.
The vaccine has done the job.
PS I am hopeful that we won't face another Covid winter after this one.
Wrong again
Ditto long Covid, which seems to have been forgotten today, though that is admittedly less urgent.
£600 per annum NHS poll tax on every adult (ie £50 per month) but zero-rated if you are vaccinated.
Nobody said Covid is done. We said that Covid will never be done. We said that Covid is endemic and we need to live with it.
"About 7.6% of South Africa’s Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Are In ICU (NB S Africa is a younger population so less severe cases, its still early to be certain, but this report is certainly worrying)"
(Bloomberg)
I am guessing it is that kind of data that made Mikey Gove say that COBRA has seen some very disturbing data this afternoon.
https://youtu.be/cwqOWrIpc6k
By Monday, it will be why no lockdown.
In March 2020, there was real fear and the pictures coming in from northern Italy and New York suggested if measures weren't taken the hospitals would be unable to cope and the health service would have been close to collapse.
After the initial restrictions were eased, we enjoyed an idyllic summer of very low case and death numbers and people got complacent so by the autumn and especially with the return to school, the case numbers rose again and of course we had a much stronger testing regimen in place so we were capturing a more accurate picture of the cases than had been the case in the spring when, to be blunt, we knew almost nothing.
The coming of the vaccines has been the seminal event - it's been just over a year and we've administered 130 million separate vaccinations - fantastic, no question. It or they have changed the narrative and your argument against the imposition of further restrictions carries much more weight than it did twelve months ago when almost no one was vaccinated and the Delta variant was loose.
Then, again, the pressure was on the health services, the ICUs and the oxygen supplies - to prevent further transmission until the vaccinations could be widely administered, the only option the Government had was to reduce inter-personal contact.
I'm no fan of this Government and mistakes were made especially over not closing the borders in the spring of 2020 and relating to care homes but a lot has gone right especially in the vaccination rollout.
My Green Party friend in Bristol says
2007 “there were no plans for an election” Gordon Brown
2021 “no rules have been broken” Boris Johnson
She says Boris Johnson has come off much more lightly than Gordon Brown when he told an outright lie. She don’t know why, but she thinks those who always loved and voted for Boris still do.
Which neatly leads to what my father, Conservative voting and remain voting has told me. When there was confidence vote in Margaret Thatcher it was after months and months of bad opinion polls, so he reckons once this fizzles out into other news stories Boris will still be there, and if Labour can maintain good or any poll lead once news changes remains to be seen. So he thinks Boris is a long way from leaving. And I don’t think my Dad really respects him all that much. From my Boris loving mum - whose flipping in love with him, no sound as yet. 😆
I am just making it clear how the narrative is being developed, just like previous lockdowns. That sky news clip is classic bias by omission, where it coupd easily emphasis how good triple jab is.
Today's omicron doubling estimate from the known UK figures remains 2 days.
Tommorow's target for known UK cases is 1788 (523 new known infections)
Will Sunak walk?
And if those that do go start talking to voters, it will be very interesting indeed to see how they react to comments from electors on the doorstep.
I would suspect that any such visit would have an impact on the size of Graham Brady's postbag.
In the next 30 years he will learn how to groom properly. Really?
Where does he get all that extra hair from for a start
they’ve given him more sensible hairstyle for sure, the parting of a proper primeminister though HYUFD will bemoan its on left and wonder about purity
If it's an emergency, you just relax the staffing ratios and make the best of it, but apparently it's easier to just destroy everyone else's life.
Remember THomas Hardy expatiating in Tess of the D'Urbervilles about the impact of railways on bringing the rustic lands into the 19th century. And HYFD centring his vision of modern England on the great landed estates.
The interesting question is how motivated the average Tory MP will be to save the clown’s skin. Many of them must be pining to have a grown up in charge.