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The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.

    I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:

    - full lockdown now
    - full lockdown boxing day

    OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun :)
    Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
    Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
    Och, you're a kill joy. Hot alcoholic drinks and lots of self indulgent food. What's not to like?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    We really needed to have been turbo charging boosters earlier. A lot of people are going to get infected over Christmas and New Year. Fingers crossed it really is milder.

    Yeah we really screwed up the boosters. We aren't even due to offer them to all adults until the end of January, and yet Omicron will be dominant in December. There are going to be a lot of sick people over the next few months, we just don't know how sick yet.
    As I have said before, it is not just the really sick people and the dead who we need to worry about (tho these numbers MIGHT be frightening and even calamitous - or not)

    We also need to worry about the many millions who will get just sick enough to need a week in bed. Something like flu.

    Because OMICRON THE BASTARD is so infectious it will take down almost everyone with some kind of infection over this winter. Breaking through boosters here, reinfecting prior sufferers there

    If 30 million Brits are suddenly unable to do their work, for a week or two, WTF happens then? Has such a thing ever occurred before? Who drives the trains and buses? Who delivers the milk and bread? Who, and I say this with a genuine tremble in my throat, WHO KNAPS THE OBSIDIAN BUTT-PLUGS?
    Who will shave my parmesan?
    I have perfected the design for a largish pure-fission nuclear weapon that will crumble Parmesan, a million tons at a time. There is a small problem with burnt bits, and the radioactive mutant zombies... But that's science for you...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59614235

    Does BoJo have anyone good advising him?

    Ms Stratton is dumped carrying the baby (ie doing what she was told to do, practice the PR stuff, and wasn't at the party) cos she is blonde and female?

    This chap ...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59614235

    Does BoJo have anyone good advising him?

    I'm sure he could have found an advisor that looked less untidy-minded.

    These days I'm a bit of shambles, but if I was going to work in number 10 every day I'd not be looking like a mobile turnip.
  • . . . what this board needs NOW is some Christmas cheer!!!

    Elmo & Patsy - Grandma Got Run over by a Reindeer
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgIwLeASnkw

    GRANDMA GOT RUN OVER BY A REINDEER
    Randy Brooks

    Grandma got run over by a reindeer
    Walking home from our house Christmas Eve
    You can say there's no such thing as Santa
    But as for me and Grandpa, we believe

    She'd been drinking too much eggnog
    And we'd begged her not to go
    But she forgot her medication
    And she staggered out the door into the snow
    When we found her Christmas morning
    At the scene of the attack
    She had hoof prints on her forehead
    And incriminating hoof marks on her back

    Now we're all so proud of Grandpa
    He's been taking this so well
    See him in there watching football
    Drinking beer and playing cards with cousin Belle
    It's not Christmas without Grandma
    All the family's dressed in black
    And we just can't help but wonder
    Should we open up her gifts or send them back?

    Now the goose is on the table
    And the pudding made of fig
    And a blue and silver candle
    That would have just matched the hair in grandma's wig
    I've warned all my friends and neighbors
    Better watch out for yourselves
    They should never give a license
    To a man who drives a sleigh and plays with elves

    Grandma got run over by a reindeer
    Walking home from our house Christmas Eve
    You can say there's no such thing as Santa
    But as for me and Grandpa, we believe
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Ramp up of boosters looks to have started - up almost 50k on the same day last week.

    In a few days' time, half of those who have had a second dose will have had a booster. That should cover the vast majority of those with high risk of hospitalisation.

    I really hope the government holds its nerve.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Well, maybe, but if the people being hospitalised with Omicron are not that ill, and don't require intensive treatment with oxygen, etc, then that sounds like the situation the Nightingale hospitals were set up to deal with, and we can fire those up again and send the vast majority of Covid patients there.

    It does sound like the Omicron wave might be a lot like the pandemic we were originally expecting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.

    May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.

    I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
    Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
    They will be looking for someone else to wield the knife, because they want the crown.

    "Loyal until it was time to regretfully tell the PM it was the end....."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.

    I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:

    - full lockdown now
    - full lockdown boxing day

    OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun :)
    Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
    Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
    Too cold in January to enjoy the gardens anyway. I vote yay to the Christmas markets.
    But now you've got me thinking, where isn't there a nice open square in Edinburgh they could do this in? Time to pull down the silly column and that cafe thing in St Andrews Square and pedestrianise it. Then we can fill it with stalls in December and not trash the hedges.
    They did have a n. o. s. - right there next to the Royal Scottish Academy and the gardens, but they've overflowed it.

    The Unionists would howl if you demolished the Dundas column.
    I was just googling who it even was, since I had no idea. Sadly, I think it would be easier to remove it if the man had zero to do with slavery. Oh well, perhaps Charlotte Square instead? Though probably a bit too curtain twitchy around there.
    Ddidn't know about the slavery, was thinking more of his role as imperial satrap, but that's a good point.

    No, that's the book festival which is nice and civilised. ... argh, just checked: "For the first time, the markets will be stretching out to various locations across the city including West Princes Street Gardens and George Street between Castle Street and Charlotte Square"

    https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/events/christmas-winter-festivals/edinburgh/

  • Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Well, maybe, but if the people being hospitalised with Omicron are not that ill, and don't require intensive treatment with oxygen, etc, then that sounds like the situation the Nightingale hospitals were set up to deal with, and we can fire those up again and send the vast majority of Covid patients there.

    It does sound like the Omicron wave might be a lot like the pandemic we were originally expecting.
    ...and they will be staffed by who?....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Omnium said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59614235

    Does BoJo have anyone good advising him?

    I'm sure he could have found an advisor that looked less untidy-minded.

    These days I'm a bit of shambles, but if I was going to work in number 10 every day I'd not be looking like a mobile turnip.
    No long blonde hair.
  • Wonder how many families will greet a little baby into the world the next few months - and call it "Omicron"?

    As a companion for their slightly older child - Covid!

    Covid McGillicuddy and Omicron O'Rourke (or even Covid Jones and Omicron Smith) are STRONG monikers.
  • Leon said:



    Is there a health service ANYWHERE that is over-staffed?

    Not sure about that, though in Switzerland on the rare occasions when I had anything to be treated to waiting list seemed to be zero. In the UK in the late 2000s we got it down to max 18 weeks for everything, 2 weeks for anything urgent and 4 hours for A&E, and that seemed pretty reasonable - I remember thinking that we didn't need to improve further apart from certain specialities and should turn to other priorities.
    As an aside, I note that Switzerland had peak Pandemic figures today, and is now officially considering a hard lockdown on December 14th

    The lights of Europe blah de blah
    Will we beat them to it?

    If AZ VE is zero, then we are looking at ton of new cases soon.
    Time to start calling it the Oxford vaccine.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.

    May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.

    I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
    Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
    They will be looking for someone else to wield the knife, because they want the crown.

    "Loyal until it was time to regretfully tell the PM it was the end....."
    Oh god, of course yes. The point was that despite the situation it hasn't happened yet. I know you understood the point in the first place. Come along.

  • Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, it's highly unlikely (probably), but 'highly unlikely' multiplied by a very large number can still be a lot of people, which is why the government may need to try to mitigate the number in order to buy time to get those boosters into arms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On a rather bleak day, there is at least the consolation that the preening, arrogant, self-aggrandising little prick of a French president might get beaten after one term. That would be fun

    He's an example of someone I got completely wrong. I was delighted by his sudden ascent and victory, and proud of the fact the commune where I have my holiday home voted resoundingly for him (and Le Pen came 5th in the first round, after Hamon). Since when he has turned out to be one of the most breathtakingly arrogant and narcissistic politicians around. The fact he named En Marche after his own initials should have been a clue.

    Not completely ineffectual - he has got some things done - but I'm not a French citizen or taxpayer so it's the image on the world stage that matters and on that he's been tiresome.

    But French presidents have always taken on certain airs and graces. One of my earliest political experiences was seeing President Mitterrand waft past on the Champs Elysees in his presidential car on Bastille day while the MIrage jets flew past overhead. He exuded a quiet, monarchical power.
    Yes, Macron does not have that innate dignity. He always looks like a small man who has just been ignored and is trying to hide his fury, or he oozes a sense of his own innate superiority, like an overripe Camembert. Those are his two modes. Neither is good
  • Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    TimS said:

    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.

    The trouble with this is it assumes we are run by intelligent strategic thinkers. I err towards Leon being right that the temptation to push the lockdown button will prove irresistible, even if there’s still nothing out of South Africa to justify panic. It takes the PM’s corruption off the front pages and is electorally popular. The trade off is backbenchers won’t like it but we’ve seen just how spineless a group they are in general, and the PM has a considerable client vote on the front benches.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59614235

    Does BoJo have anyone good advising him?

    I'm sure he could have found an advisor that looked less untidy-minded.

    These days I'm a bit of shambles, but if I was going to work in number 10 every day I'd not be looking like a mobile turnip.
    No long blonde hair.
    I was thinking of Cummings and this Jack Doyle chap. Women set themselves higher standards in terms of appearance.
  • Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.

    May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.

    I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
    Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
    They will be looking for someone else to wield the knife, because they want the crown.

    "Loyal until it was time to regretfully tell the PM it was the end....."
    Oh god, of course yes. The point was that despite the situation it hasn't happened yet. I know you understood the point in the first place. Come along.
    It is not understanding the point that's hard, it is thinking it is a good one. Make it this time next week and there might be something in it, but this is not YET a political catastrophe. Political catastrophes is electoral defeats and forced resignations. There's loyalty, and there's keeping your powder dry.
  • Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.

    May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.

    I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
    Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
    They will be looking for someone else to wield the knife, because they want the crown.

    "Loyal until it was time to regretfully tell the PM it was the end....."
    That's how BJ's alleged role model WSC played the game in 1940. Ditto Macmillan in 1956.

    Dynamics were different for Lloyd George on the way in, in 1916, also on the way out, in 1922. Though of course the later was NOT intra-party; and even more of course, Lloyd George was sui generis.
  • Miracle on 34th Street was released 6 May 1947.

    I've always considered it a Christmas classic and my all time favourite Christmas movie (well the remake starring Richard Attenborough).

    But according to TSE I'm guessing this is no longer to be classed as a Christmas movie as it was released in May. Or is May OK, but July is off limits?

    Impact of the war, film releases dates were out of kilter.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Well, maybe, but if the people being hospitalised with Omicron are not that ill, and don't require intensive treatment with oxygen, etc, then that sounds like the situation the Nightingale hospitals were set up to deal with, and we can fire those up again and send the vast majority of Covid patients there.

    It does sound like the Omicron wave might be a lot like the pandemic we were originally expecting.
    ...and they will be staffed by who?....
    Anyone with first-aid training - St John's Ambulance, cabin crew, the army, etc.

    The reason this didn't work in the first wave is that the Covid hospitalised required more intensive medical treatment, which couldn't be done with the basic equipment and first-aid trained staff in the Nightingales. It sounds like the treatment needs for Omicron patients will be more suited to what can be provided.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.

    The trouble with this is it assumes we are run by intelligent strategic thinkers. I err towards Leon being right that the temptation to push the lockdown button will prove irresistible, even if there’s still nothing out of South Africa to justify panic. It takes the PM’s corruption off the front pages and is electorally popular. The trade off is backbenchers won’t like it but we’ve seen just how spineless a group they are in general, and the PM has a considerable client vote on the front benches.
    Locking down for Christmas and completely destroying everyone’s Christmas plans is “electorally popular”. Is it? Is it really?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Wonder how many families will greet a little baby into the world the next few months - and call it "Omicron"?

    As a companion for their slightly older child - Covid!

    Covid McGillicuddy and Omicron O'Rourke (or even Covid Jones and Omicron Smith) are STRONG monikers.

    Little Omicron just growed and growed...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited December 2021
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Farooq said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Christmas party just got cancelled, one hour before it was due to begin.

    I wish they'd stop prevaricating and either:

    - full lockdown now
    - full lockdown boxing day

    OTOH, Edinburgh is buzzing tonight, so my emergency shadow party should be fun :)
    Are there Christmas markets this year? The ones normally by Waverley I mean.
    Yup. I do not like them. Trash the gardens.
    Too cold in January to enjoy the gardens anyway. I vote yay to the Christmas markets.
    But now you've got me thinking, where isn't there a nice open square in Edinburgh they could do this in? Time to pull down the silly column and that cafe thing in St Andrews Square and pedestrianise it. Then we can fill it with stalls in December and not trash the hedges.
    They did have a n. o. s. - right there next to the Royal Scottish Academy and the gardens, but they've overflowed it.

    The Unionists would howl if you demolished the Dundas column.
    I was just googling who it even was, since I had no idea. Sadly, I think it would be easier to remove it if the man had zero to do with slavery. Oh well, perhaps Charlotte Square instead? Though probably a bit too curtain twitchy around there.
    Ddidn't know about the slavery, was thinking more of his role as imperial satrap, but that's a good point.

    No, that's the book festival which is nice and civilised. ... argh, just checked: "For the first time, the markets will be stretching out to various locations across the city including West Princes Street Gardens and George Street between Castle Street and Charlotte Square"

    https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/events/christmas-winter-festivals/edinburgh/
    Yeah, I saw on his Wikipedia pages something about "Harry IX" and skipped over it.
    I certainly didn't mean to start any conversation about independence or slavery. I just think Edinburgh could use a public square that isn't hemmed in with railings or dotted with furniture. Where do you put the big screen when Scotland are playing Argentina in the 2022 world cup final?
    Also getting in the way are inconvenient wooden untidy things called trees. It would have to be one of the inner periperhal parks such as the Meadows (Uni of E area) or Inverleith (Botanic Gdns area) or between Holyrood Palace and Arthur's Seat (where Yes marches often end).

    Seriously, though, I would never go to a major [edit][ New Year event such as fireworks in the central area - there have been bad frights. IMpossible (in my view) combination of pishheads, tricky geography (levels/rails/stairs), and the need to maintain some public trhough access or sell off public access.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12354687.numbers-cut-for-hogmanay-party/
    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/edinburgh-new-year-party-goers-caught-crush-1516670
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Omnium said:

    There's an interesting demonstration of loyalty going on with Boris. He clearly has some from his cabinet.

    May or Major would have been long gone. Sadly Thatcher was too. All in less dire circumstances.

    I find that really hard to believe looking at him, and his cabinet. Esp after Sunak nodding along to Blackford at pmqs. The others you mention would have gone of their own accord because they knew the game was up. Anyway Thatcher had fought round 1 of a leadership challenge, May had come 5th in national elections. Those are serious political events, scandals are fluff until hard evidence is to hand.
    Boris is presiding over a political catastrophe of unmatched horror. None of the cabinet are publically sabre-rattling. Whatever else might be going on that's a very good demonstartion of loyalty (of course to the party too).
    They will be looking for someone else to wield the knife, because they want the crown.

    "Loyal until it was time to regretfully tell the PM it was the end....."
    Oh god, of course yes. The point was that despite the situation it hasn't happened yet. I know you understood the point in the first place. Come along.
    It is not understanding the point that's hard, it is thinking it is a good one. Make it this time next week and there might be something in it, but this is not YET a political catastrophe. Political catastrophes is electoral defeats and forced resignations. There's loyalty, and there's keeping your powder dry.
    I'll try to make my posts and their point better in future Ishmael!

    I suspect you're not seeing this as clearly as you imagine though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Uh oh...

    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1469354766560026624?t=Y6lQ63tQPmlWWFJYoHvW2g&s=19
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    Indeed, till this summer I haven't seen a single person except for walking once a week to do shopping except for online and have now been separated from my young lady since 14/03/2020 as she went back to see family in australia then. Frankly they can fuck off if they think I am not going to go party over christmas.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    You know, my Friends, with what a brave Carouse
    I made a Second Marriage in my house;
    Divorced old barren Reason from my Bed,
    And took the Daughter of the Vine to Spouse.

    I have done the lockdowns to date, teetotal. I feel MUCH better about this one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Uh oh...

    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1469354766560026624?t=Y6lQ63tQPmlWWFJYoHvW2g&s=19

    Fuckety fuck
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874


    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.

    Yes, it's highly unlikely (probably), but 'highly unlikely' multiplied by a very large number can still be a lot of people, which is why the government may need to try to mitigate the number in order to buy time to get those boosters into arms.
    Yes, this has been the problem throughout the whole crisis. The capacity of ICUs and other parts of hospitals to deal with relatively small (but well above normal) numbers of patients coming in and requiring treatment especially around the provision of oxygen.

    I think people would be astonished how few critical care beds there are per head of population which is why even in a normal winter the NHS struggles - it's not because the illness is serious but the capacity to handle the statistically small numbers of those requiring treatment just isn't there.

    This has been the public health rationale behind the coronavirus response from day 1 - measures being taken to limit the numbers requiring hospital treatment.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.

    The trouble with this is it assumes we are run by intelligent strategic thinkers. I err towards Leon being right that the temptation to push the lockdown button will prove irresistible, even if there’s still nothing out of South Africa to justify panic. It takes the PM’s corruption off the front pages and is electorally popular. The trade off is backbenchers won’t like it but we’ve seen just how spineless a group they are in general, and the PM has a considerable client vote on the front benches.
    Locking down for Christmas and completely destroying everyone’s Christmas plans is “electorally popular”. Is it? Is it really?
    For reasons I can’t fathom, yes.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Uh oh...

    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1469354766560026624?t=Y6lQ63tQPmlWWFJYoHvW2g&s=19

    Fuckety fuck
    That is insane infectivity

    Even if they don't lock us down no one will go out anyway with that kind of shit happening
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Foxy said:

    Uh oh...

    My brother’s triple-jabbed - the third one was Pfizer 3-4 wks ago. He’s just got covid & feels ‘rough’ & is isolating. Had a Xmas meal out with a load of mates last Friday - all of them vaccinated - 17 out of 21 of them have now tested positive.

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1469354766560026624?t=Y6lQ63tQPmlWWFJYoHvW2g&s=19

    Yet we've given third vaccinations to over 22 million people. How many of these have contracted the virus since their third vaccination?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    TimS said:

    I wonder if they are trying some Covid behavioural nudge strategy. All these dire warnings and challenging new data...leading people to queue up for boosters in their hordes (certainly the queue at the vax centre today was something to behold, and we just did our biggest ever booster day yesterday in England) and voluntarily dial down the social interaction. Which from all the anecdotes and cancelled reservations is exactly what is happening. With no financial support for the hospitality industry in what should be one of their peak times of year.

    The trouble with this is it assumes we are run by intelligent strategic thinkers. I err towards Leon being right that the temptation to push the lockdown button will prove irresistible, even if there’s still nothing out of South Africa to justify panic. It takes the PM’s corruption off the front pages and is electorally popular. The trade off is backbenchers won’t like it but we’ve seen just how spineless a group they are in general, and the PM has a considerable client vote on the front benches.
    Locking down for Christmas and completely destroying everyone’s Christmas plans is “electorally popular”. Is it? Is it really?
    For reasons I can’t fathom, yes.
    Is it? Citation required.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Good evening. The LDs are now a 62% chance in North Shropshire. Seems about right.
  • Foxy said:

    Wonder how many families will greet a little baby into the world the next few months - and call it "Omicron"?

    As a companion for their slightly older child - Covid!

    Covid McGillicuddy and Omicron O'Rourke (or even Covid Jones and Omicron Smith) are STRONG monikers.

    Little Omicron just growed and growed...
    "Covid Oximeter McGurk! Leave your little brother alone! And you, Omicon Pandemic! I'm watching you, too!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, it's highly unlikely (probably), but 'highly unlikely' multiplied by a very large number can still be a lot of people, which is why the government may need to try to mitigate the number in order to buy time to get those boosters into arms.
    SA is 3 weeks ahead of us and although the population is younger they are nowhere near as vaccinated. I would imagine SA will reach peak in 7-10 days as Omicron spreads so fast. Currently just 6% of ICU beds are taken by those with Covid in SA and not all of these are because of Covid. In June 2021 with the Delta wave they ran out of ICU beds because of Covid.

    https://globalnews.ca/video/8436557/covid-19-infections-surge-255-in-south-africa-in-a-week-but-only-6-icu-beds-occupied

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    Omicron is nothing like Delta
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    It's unlikely you'll need hospital even if you have no vaccines. It's more about spread. An explosion in cases multiplied by a chance of hospital that is small but big enough = the NHS problem we are desperately hoping to avoid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited December 2021
    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
    Yes, my older daughter lives with her mum and they drove each other close to terminal hatred during the earlier lockdowns. She said to me the other day "Dad I don't know if I can do it again"

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    The Tories thoroughly deserve to be on the receiving end of polls like this IMO.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited December 2021

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695

    If the day after GE19 somebody would have written that two years later, Labour would be nearly 10 points ahead with Starmer as the most popular leader since Blair and BoJo as unpopular as Corbyn, you would have been laughed out of the room.

    Not really, Johnson was always a joke that was going to wear thin sooner or later. He just doesn't do long-term relationships.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
    Yes, my older daughter lives with her mum and they drove each other close to terminal hatred during the earlier lockdowns. She said to me the other day "Dad I don't know if I can do it again"

    I take it you've immediatedly called in buidlers to slowly reconfigure the spare room?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    With a fraction of the vax rates! Which you never mention.

    You really are needlessly unpleasant to other posters. Why?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
  • I love Sky/Red Bull are a bunch of snowflakes.

    Red Bull are unhappy with one of Sky's idents - the one of Max crashing into the wall at Silverstone.

    https://www.telegraaf.nl/sport/1204868318/red-bull-extreem-teleurgesteld-in-televisiespotje-engelse-zender-met-crashende-max-verstappen

    "The channel made a commercial with the crash of Max Verstappen at Silverstone, followed by the text: Merry Christmas."

    ""We are extremely disappointed that images are used of a crash, in which someone ended up in hospital," a Red Bull spokesperson said to De Telegraaf. “This is in very bad taste. We hope it will be removed soon.” Sky Sports has now informed Red Bull that the video will be taken offline.""


    In FP1 or FP2 Whinger Spice was having a go at Karun Chandhok for getting rid of the corners Mercedes didn't like with his role in reconfiguring the track.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited December 2021
    Drakeford has just said that if further lockdowns are required then it is only the UK government and Rishi Sunak who can provide business support. ITV Wales asked for a Welsh government spokesperson to come on the programme but they declined

    So much for independence and the coalition with Plaid
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
    'Pro EU'

    Yes, it's odd how they turned out to be the competent ones... ;) (runs for cover)

    But I'm unsure what you said was correct anyway. There were plenty who were willing to see May's deal go through - to accept Brexit - but who were stymied only by Boris's ambition. For instance: do you deny Rory Stewart would have been head and shoulders above Boris in this crisis?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
    Yes, my older daughter lives with her mum and they drove each other close to terminal hatred during the earlier lockdowns. She said to me the other day "Dad I don't know if I can do it again"

    I take it you've immediatedly called in buidlers to slowly reconfigure the spare room?
    I've offered to take her somewhere else, but of course she's also reluctant to do that, loves her Mum, loves her dog, her schoolfriends....

    What a horrible trial this is
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    Talking of which, this is quite funny:
    https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1469205203320811522
  • Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
    Yes, my older daughter lives with her mum and they drove each other close to terminal hatred during the earlier lockdowns. She said to me the other day "Dad I don't know if I can do it again"

    January has always been a crap month. I used to be able to fill it with a couple of weekends away just to break the monotony of the cold weather and dark nights. I must admit the prospect of nothing to look forward to for a second year except weekend walks around the same old streets fills me with dread.
  • Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited December 2021
    The natural conclusion of this, if the hawks are right, is that almost everyone in the entire country will be self isolating by New Year’s Day, whether they are poorly or not. The exceptions with be those in single person households who never go out and never meet anyone, although how they then eat remains a mystery.

    However, this apocalyptic projection strikes me as unlikely.

    I guess we’ll see. Lots of hysteria to wade through before then, no doubt.
  • Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
    Indeed, but that does not explain the completely different impacts between Delta and Omicron there.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
    'Pro EU'

    Yes, it's odd how they turned out to be the competent ones... ;) (runs for cover)

    But I'm unsure what you said was correct anyway. There were plenty who were willing to see May's deal go through - to accept Brexit - but who were stymied only by Boris's ambition. For instance: do you deny Rory Stewart would have been head and shoulders above Boris in this crisis?
    I think we know politicians from all sides really made a complete mess of May's deal

    And I am not a great admirer of Rory
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Wonder how many families will greet a little baby into the world the next few months - and call it "Omicron"?

    As a companion for their slightly older child - Covid!

    Covid McGillicuddy and Omicron O'Rourke (or even Covid Jones and Omicron Smith) are STRONG monikers.

    Trollope has two medical characters who pop up more than once in the novels, including Barchester Towers; Sir Omicron Pie and Sir Lamda Mewnew.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
    Indeed, but that does not explain the completely different impacts between Delta and Omicron there.
    Indeed. People seem to be struggling to grasp this: we are comparing South Africa with … South Africa. Not some faraway land that is entirely demographically different to South Africa!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    "today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information" "

    The Rt rate for the number of parties in Whitehall during lockdown has gone up to 2.6?
    You're right. It will be a lockdown. Hard lockdown. Just listen to the words they are using. "Very challenging new information". This is like Delta Deja Vu All Over Again Redux 2.0 The Sequel, but Worse, Revisited

    The case loads will be so high any idea of tiers or shifting rules for hospitality or tightening usage of masks will look pathetically trivial. The urge to press the big red Emergency Button will be overwhelming. They will press it
    Yep. I am feeling very low about what's looming. Just a question of whether they push the button next week or leave until christmas eve or even hold back until 2nd Jan.

    I can't face another three months of lockdown.
    It's so depressing. My grandmother lives in Wales and we are supposed to be going out for a Xmas dinner in a pub on the 25th. It is also her 100th birthday in Feb. I can see her spending both days alone :-(
    In all seriousness, I worry about suicide rates in a fourth winter lockdown

    I know they were expected to rise before, but they did not. And yet, ANOTHER long cold season of nothingness?

    Who the fuck wants to do Zoom again? Walk in a freezing park with a thermos of mulled wine? Stare out of the window as their hair grows down their backs? Start a fucking sourdough?

    We've done it all. We've done everything. We've been here and JESUS CHRIST NOT AGAIN GOD HELP ME

    I am having another coffee
    My fear from lockdown is no time to myself. I'm a natural introvert and need quiet time sometimes to recharge. With 3 kids if they were not at school again I would find it very hard to ever get a break. Lockdown effects everyone differently.
    Yes, my older daughter lives with her mum and they drove each other close to terminal hatred during the earlier lockdowns. She said to me the other day "Dad I don't know if I can do it again"

    I take it you've immediatedly called in buidlers to slowly reconfigure the spare room?
    I've offered to take her somewhere else, but of course she's also reluctant to do that, loves her Mum, loves her dog, her schoolfriends....

    What a horrible trial this is
    Agreed.

    I'm not sure though as to what extent life is just like this. I've just been stressed out by moving house - now it's mostly over what do I do with life!? (This for once is a rhetorical question)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
    The other advantage is that it is midsummer there, midwinter here, and clearly covid is much easier to catch indoors.
  • Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    Stretches the definition of "cracking tale" somewhat.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
  • Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
  • Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
  • Foxy said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
    The other advantage is that it is midsummer there, midwinter here, and clearly covid is much easier to catch indoors.
    It seems to be spreading in SA anyway. No-one disputes we're going to get a lot of it, it's how many eople it puts in hospital
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Lab + Green on 47% nice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Politician calls journalist called a wanker, shock. Makes a change from political journalist being punched by politician.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/entertainment/harold-wilson-punched-me-on-my-first-day-at-the-bbc-30477561.html

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    I haven't. Neither has Mrs J. Or loads of friends of ours in the 40-50 range.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.

    How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?

    I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
    A mask keeps my face nice and warm on the walk to and from school. Then again, a balaclava also used to have the same effect... ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    MattW said:

    I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.

    How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?

    I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.

    It’s a good idea. My car is clean diesel Ad Blue and thus unaffected.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    They are going to need to get cracking on reformulating covid vaccines. AZN is basically useless against stopping it with 2 doses, which is what I presume the developing world are giving out.

    Mainly Chinese vaccines in the developing world, which were of limited effectiveness against previous variants. No idea how much effectiveness they would add to a boostered dose, bearing in mind two doses of any vaccine isn't enough on its own.
    This has also occurred to me. AZ has been the vaccine workhorse of the world (and has done a sterling job - until now). We really need to hope it offers SOME protection against serious Omicron or suddenly billions of people are completely exposed, as if there was no vaccine at all

    Nightmare
    The evidence is 2 jabs still protect against hospitalisation and severe Covid, even if boosters are needed to protect against symptomatic Covid
    It is? Against Omicron? AZ?

    I honestly haven't seen that detail, do you have a link?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:


    Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky

    Even more restrictions?

    Michael Gove has just been speaking in a pool TV interview

    He said Covid "is a deeply concerning situation" and today's Cobra meeting "was presented with some very challenging new information"

    "We absolutely need to keep everything under review"


    Looking at the publicly-available info on Omicron, I think what may be happening here is that, although Omicron in a well-jabbed/previously-infected population is usually mild, a small proportion will be sufficiently severe to require at least a short period of hospitalisation. Given that we can expect a huge number of cases very quickly, we're back to the old 'overwhelming the health service' problem, even though the prognosis for those who do get hospitalised is miles better than waves 1 and 2, and the length of stay much less.

    If that's right, we are surely going to get some new restrictions, to 'flatten the curve' of cases and thus buy time to get more boosters into arms.

    Not great, but anyone who simply says 'no more restrictions!' or 'no vaxports!' without actually bothering to look at the data is nuts.

    Sorry to drip on but if you watch the video from SA its highly unlikely that you will get admitted to hospital for just Covid if you have 2 vaccines, they have no data on 3 vaccines yet.
    Yes, of course it's unlikely, because the median age in South Africa is 28!

    Are you really so dense you can't understand that simple point?
    Go on then explain this from June 2021

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/south-africas-third-wave-set-to-be-the-worst-yet

    A quote from this article:

    "The 27-year-old chief nephrology technologist says he has been swamped with calls from patients desperate for oxygen and who cannot find it elsewhere. But with supply being limited, he is forced to prioritise."

    Did he let people die due to lack of oxygen in SA beacuse everyone is so young there?
    SA has advantages. Young population a lot of natural immunity. And disadvantages. Low vaccine uptake and a substantial proportion of the population with HIV.
    The other advantage is that it is midsummer there, midwinter here, and clearly covid is much easier to catch indoors.
    It seems to be spreading in SA anyway. No-one disputes we're going to get a lot of it, it's how many eople it puts in hospital
    Yes, but severity may in part be down to viral dose. A dusting of outdoor virus vs a shovel full of indoor virus...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    My only bolstering after AZ AZ came from catching Covid.
    That’s probably better than a 3rd jab. Exposure to the whole virus.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I think they will scrape it. A lot of the postal votes are in, and it is donkey with a blue rosette territory. Don't forget the kept re-electing a total kleptocrat!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Crikey...

    Meaghan Kall: "2x AZ, VE is ZERO"

    Good thing most who had AZ AZ have now been bolstered then.
    I haven't. Neither has Mrs J. Or loads of friends of ours in the 40-50 range.
    There will be significant protection against serious disease. Plus your second doses will be more recent, so less waning than the UKHSA data.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
    A mask keeps my face nice and warm on the walk to and from school. Then again, a balaclava also used to have the same effect... ;)
    Do you wear a mask while walking down the street?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    Me.

    Con hold but Lab + LD vote share will be greater than the Con vote share.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    Me.

    Con hold but Lab + LD vote share will be greater than the Con vote share.
    Yep, that's my view as well.
  • Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Desperate poll for the Tories.

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 33% (-7)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+2)

    Knives to be stuck in to Boris after they're absolubtely trollied in North Shropshire perhaps ?

    When was the last time a party fell by 7% between one poll and the company's next?

    Again HY is proved foolish to try and rely upon polls taken immediately during or after a breaking story.
    Still not a 10% Starmer lead then. Though having said that if photos emerge of Boris at one of these parties then he would have to go, likely replaced by Sunak
    I think if you are being honest you are coming to terms that Boris is no longer an asset and time for the 55 letters to go in or at the very least for the 1922 to visit him and ask that he considers his position

    This is unsustainable

    And finally with Rishi in place I would rejoin and we would be in the same place
    And my SNP VI disappears, and I will reconsider who I should vote for next GE. It won't be Duguid, but I could switch back to Lib Dem. Inept as Duguid is, I don't feel the burning motivation to vote SNP just to get rid of him if a sensible person is in Downing Street.
    It would be really nice to have a calm look at the policy platforms of the different parties without a big fucking Boris klaxon going off in my head all the time. I really do think it's best for Britain that he goes, yesterday if possible.
    Absolutely
    The problem is that Boris has got rid of most of the sane people who could take over from him. The bonfire of the talent pre-2019GE removed a lot of people who might be quiet, boring, and just do the job - the equivalent of Starmer. Everyone in cabinet is covered with Boris's odure.
    The main ones who have gone were the pro EU conservatives and while I want Boris gone I still support Brexit
    'Pro EU'

    Yes, it's odd how they turned out to be the competent ones... ;) (runs for cover)

    But I'm unsure what you said was correct anyway. There were plenty who were willing to see May's deal go through - to accept Brexit - but who were stymied only by Boris's ambition. For instance: do you deny Rory Stewart would have been head and shoulders above Boris in this crisis?
    I think we know politicians from all sides really made a complete mess of May's deal

    And I am not a great admirer of Rory
    What's wrong (in your view) with Rory Stewart?

    Apropos of nothing (maybe) occurs to me, that the Leave/Reman cleavage in UK politics is similar to some other spasms of the body politic.

    One example is the Liberal Party split over Home Rule in 1880s. Another is Free Silver versus Gold Standard in USA in 1890s. Ditto Protectionism versus Free Trade on both sides of the Atlantic (and Pacific) but particularly as a issue dividing Unionists at turn of 19th-20th century.

    Pro-Life versus Pro-Choice since 1970s, esp. in US politics, is more recent example.

    Hallmark of these kinds of splits, is that while conflict between parties is important, the fiercest fights (and associated runctions and repercussions) are WITHIN parties.

    One example of this, is the division between supporters of Eugene McCarthy for President in 1968, versus backers of Robert F. Kennedy, who entered the race only after LBJ withdrew. Within the Democratic Party the bitterness of this split lasted for (at least) three decades.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I would love it, just love it, if the Tories lose next week :)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited December 2021

    MattW said:

    I see that the ULEZ is now in place in London for a few weeks.

    How's it going. Has anyone bought a 41 year old car yet to avoid it?

    I see that Black Cabs are exempt. That was perhaps a good value investment in the Mayor's Election Campaign - first Uber and now this. /cynic.

    It’s a good idea. My car is clean diesel Ad Blue and thus unaffected.
    I generally approve. Some people will suffer.

    We just need some of the cash for HS2 North :smile: , given that £8bn/x of our budget is being spent mending Parliament.

    Cars from 1981 are quite civilised. Wait a year or two and you can have a Mark 2 Golf or a Stuttgart Taxi or any number of last forever Japanese runabouts.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think the Tories won't lose the by-election on Thursday? They've had it I think, based on the latest polls.

    I can’t see how they do it. Even in true blue country. I have stuck with them through quite a lot but even I wouldn’t be voting for them if I had a vote on Thursday. Anecdotally family members who voted for Boris in 2019 have unprompted told me they regret that vote. It could just be the nadir and the government recovers (though i think they will find it difficult), but right now, this week? With everything fresh in people’s minds? I just can’t see them doing it.
  • Roger said:

    Raab has gone up in my estimation now.

    Cracking tale from @paulwaugh tonight...

    Dominic Raab mouthed "wanker" to Nick Robinson during a testy interview on Tuesday on Today programme.

    Spokesman for the Deputy PM is no commenting and declined the opportunity to deny it to me just now...


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1469368916036177925

    I'd have been more impressed if Robinson had mouthed it to Raab.
    The only personal positive from mask wearing for me is that I'm been secretly mouthing 'dickhead' or 'wanker' at other people for the last 18 months and not getting into trouble.
    A mask keeps my face nice and warm on the walk to and from school. Then again, a balaclava also used to have the same effect... ;)
    Do you wear a mask while walking down the street?
    Only when I combine it with a trip to the shops.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited December 2021
    Poll of Conservative members re Boris

    I am not a member but I am in the 21% who think he should resign

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1469370138441003010?t=Z9yFO50WsMJYXePY6cdsAQ&s=19
This discussion has been closed.