politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump fails to win tonight then his bid will effectively
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Your last sentence says it all though. What's the attraction of drinking some homeopathic amount of booze in the first place? Just share the driving around, punish the J2O when it's your turn. What's the problem?MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:How many people are now actually run over and killed by people "just over" the limit?
I'd hazard a guess it's somewhere around zero. So this new, more draconian policy will save no people.
Britain has some of the safest roads in the world (which is good). But if people are still being mowed down by drunken murdering fools, it is because these irresponsible, uninsured bastards just don't give a fuck, and would drink three bottles of vodka, then drive, kill a kid, and drive on, so what.
This tightening won't deter them, any more than the present laws do. I fail to see the logic.
Indeed, it will just hurt normal people with draconian punishments for being slightly over the limit - banned from driving and punitive insurance later - while the real culprits won't give a F.
Having children distracting you in the car can be just as dangerous.
And I speak as someone who avoids alcohol entirely when I drive.0 -
With £1,600 available to lay Trump I thought the Trump Train may have derailed.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, that has to be good for Trump.TheWhiteRabbit said:NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
Why would they vote for anyone else?
Could be a Trumpslide..0 -
Fewer than you'd think.Speedy said:
But how many of them will vote for the only guy proposing that ?TheWhiteRabbit said:NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
There is a great West Wing episode where Joh Lyman gets mad at polls because they indicate that some people think one thing but then vote diametrically opposite.
One of my closest mates couldn't be more Tory. He'd make Redwood look like a liberal. But he thinks that his views match with socialism.
I despair.
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http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930
"Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment” – sentiment that’s boosted Donald Trump in Iowa and in national polls alike. On the Democratic side, fewer, about a quarter, are looking for an outsider.
As usual for New Hampshire, turnout by evangelicals is lower than in Iowa, where they were key to Ted Cruz’s first-place finish. Evangelicals account for about a quarter of Republican voters in these preliminary New Hampshire results, vs. 64 percent in Iowa.
Strong conservatives account for three in 10 GOP voters in New Hampshire, vs. 40 percent in Iowa. That said, three-quarters in New Hampshire are conservatives overall in these preliminary results, up sharply from 53 percent in the 2012 primary."0 -
I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
(I have no way to verify these!)
It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.0 -
You have an inner lefty?Pulpstar said:
I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
(I have no way to verify these!)
It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.0 -
Yeah on some stuff I definitely dress to the left.Casino_Royale said:
You have an inner lefty?Pulpstar said:
I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
(I have no way to verify these!)
It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.
I'm glad I don't have a stupid amount of debt from uni for instance. I think the £12k I graduated with was fair enough, but people under 30 have eye watering amounts. Even bigger amounts in the US.0 -
After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.isam said:
Ha that's it! Nevermind, maybe I wasn't clearfoxinsoxuk said:
I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?isam said:
Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"foxinsoxuk said:
I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.isam said:
Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!foxinsoxuk said:
I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.isam said:
If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....Pong said:
Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.foxinsoxuk said:
Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!isam said:
Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsidersviewcode said:
Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
You said "Yes"
I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."
Still waiting!!
If so then sorry!
Still a decent bet at 5/2 IMO, as is Leicester top scoring side at 6/10 -
Exit poll: fra chi non aveva mai votato alle primarie Trump 36% Kasich 18% Cruz 13% Rubio 13% #NHprimary
That's "vote among people who haven't voted before" (which is itself, according to another tweet, 13%).0 -
daveweigel @daveweigel 24h24 hours agoMortimer said:
Fewer than you'd think.Speedy said:
But how many of them will vote for the only guy proposing that ?TheWhiteRabbit said:NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
There is a great West Wing episode where Joh Lyman gets mad at polls because they indicate that some people think one thing but then vote diametrically opposite.
One of my closest mates couldn't be more Tory. He'd make Redwood look like a liberal. But he thinks that his views match with socialism.
I despair.
Talked to a voter at Rubio rally who disliked Cruz bc he had been a Gang of 8 member then flipped. Had to inform him he mixed up his Cubans.
daveweigel @daveweigel 24h24 hours ago
So, having just explained to me why he didn't expect Cruz's flip, once it was RUBIO's flip, he immediately justified it. lol nothing matters0 -
It's the losses in games you expect to win that crush title dreams. Just sayin'foxinsoxuk said:
After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.0 -
Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?Casino_Royale said:
You have an inner lefty?Pulpstar said:
I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
(I have no way to verify these!)
It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.0 -
I'm sure you never thought you'd be posting that!foxinsoxuk said:
After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.isam said:
Ha that's it! Nevermind, maybe I wasn't clearfoxinsoxuk said:
I mis-understand, have you no PP a/c?isam said:
Yes but I said "Have you got a PP acc?"foxinsoxuk said:
I tipped on here a number of Leicester City bets. Winner at 20/1 and Top 4 finish at 2/1 as recently as the end of December.isam said:
Yeah Im so glad I emailed you Vardy was a good bet at 33/1 and you said cheers and didn't get me any!foxinsoxuk said:
I am watching TGS fairly closely. There are a few contenders, though Jamie looks in fine fettle. Any of Lukaku, Kane or Aguero could pinch it from him.isam said:
If its your thing, I make Costa about 4000/1 to be top Prem scorer and there is £11 wanting to take 99s on the exchanges....Pong said:
Not if you lay that bet 6000 times and only pay out once.foxinsoxuk said:
Someone laid my 3000/1 £1 ew on LCFC winning the league. That is picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer!isam said:
Roberts phrase, but I am supposing it means laying big outsidersviewcode said:
Arsenal are a decent side so I don't think there is much value at 9/2 on Leicester win this weekend.
You said "Yes"
I said "Vardy ew at 33s is a great bet, Ill have any you don't want..."
Still waiting!!
If so then sorry!
Still a decent bet at 5/2 IMO, as is Leicester top scoring side at 6/1
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NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
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Hmm - surely Trump would've been hoping for more than that, given how crucial "non-voters" were to his overall polling numbers?TheWhiteRabbit said:Exit poll: fra chi non aveva mai votato alle primarie Trump 36% Kasich 18% Cruz 13% Rubio 13% #NHprimary
That's "vote among people who haven't voted before" (which is itself, according to another tweet, 13%).0 -
Erm what have drink driving laws got to do with the EU. You are aware aren't you that the Scots have already reduced to 50µg/100ml blood?EPG said:Terrible.
What about the God-given right to drive around a public road after consuming intoxicating drugs.
Brexit will probably save the UK from drink driving laws too.0 -
Phuket. I'm tired, and I'm ill.
If I lose money, I lose money.
I'm going to bed. Good luck nightowls.0 -
Goodnight mateCasino_Royale said:Phuket. I'm tired, and I'm ill.
If I lose money, I lose money.
I'm going to bed. Good luck nightowls.0 -
BBC Newsnight ✔ @BBCNewsnight
Do you think (benefits brake) would put anybody off coming here? "No. Frankly not.": Jose Manuel Barroso #Newsnight0 -
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-early-exit-poll-results-are-democrats-more-liberal-n515011
"In 2008 in New Hampshire, 20 percent identified as "very liberal" — this year, 26 percent see themselves that way. Overall, liberals in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are up from 56 percent in 2008 to 68 percent today."
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-new-hampshire-republicans-look-very-n515006
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I don't. I'm very right-wing.John_M said:
Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?Casino_Royale said:
You have an inner lefty?Pulpstar said:
I'm really not surprised at the support for Sanders amongst under 30s.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH EXIT POLL: Which candidate Democrats support can depend on voters' age #Decision2016 pic.twitter.com/4LABnSgAOY
(I have no way to verify these!)
It's quite heartening and definitely tugs at my inner lefty.0 -
Which twitter or w/e are you following for this.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
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God help us when the 'ban all muslims' candidate is the choice of moderates.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
The USA is truly a world away from the UK.0 -
https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/697190629776883712John_M said:
Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?0 -
I've got tweet deck doing a search for "Exit poll"Pulpstar said:
Which twitter or w/e are you following for this.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
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I was bang centre (Auth/liberal), and one square to the right when I took that test last.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ninjaeconomics/status/697190629776883712John_M said:
Everyone has an inner lefty. Wouldn't it be lovely to spend infinite amounts of money just by taxing the rich?0 -
I have been watching Leicester City for many years, and certainly seen some surprising defeats, but the current side and tactics are a class above, but we shall see.Wanderer said:
It's the losses in games you expect to win that crush title dreams. Just sayin'foxinsoxuk said:
After Sunday we have no more top 4 sides to play (though both ManU and Chelsea away) the rest of our matches are mostly lower half sides. I reckon 7 wins and 3 draws to clinch the title out of 13 remaining matches.
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Only 24% are moderate though.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
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Half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the eventual nominee, vs. about four in 10 for Rubio and Cruz alik0
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So we know Trump will beat Chris Christie at this point.Speedy said:
Only 24% are moderate though.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
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I'd laugh my socks off if Cruz has won this.0
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Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:
57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.
However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.
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That is a definite win for Bernie.Speedy said:https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/697187881907957761
Get your calculators.0 -
I'm -500 Christie GOP nom, +1500 POTUS
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The 65 or over looks pretty respectable for sanders.Speedy said:https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/697187881907957761
Get your calculators.
1/7th are under 30.
Any idea of the exit poll sample size?0 -
That is GOP moderates, Americans as a whole disagreed with Trump's comments by 46% to 40%, Republicans backed the idea 66% to 24%. As for the UK the majority disagreed with his comments too by 64% to 25% but UKIP voters backed Trump's comments by 61% to 32%!SandyRentool said:
God help us when the 'ban all muslims' candidate is the choice of moderates.TheWhiteRabbit said:NH Exit poll: Trump does best among self described GOP moderates - winning 34% of them.
The USA is truly a world away from the UK.
http://www.infowars.com/poll-most-voters-in-us-agree-with-trump-on-muslim-ban/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/09/brits-oppose-muslim-policy-pockets-approval/0 -
They really don't like Rubio and Cruz there.TheWhiteRabbit said:Half of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the eventual nominee, vs. about four in 10 for Rubio and Cruz alik
That talk about abortion and God may be good for Iowa but is a bad fit for N.H.0 -
So what games are we supposed to play mid zombie apocalypse? Have these people no sense?John_M said:Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:
57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.
However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.0 -
FNC Exit Poll pic.twitter.com/GmD4B4sewg among late deciders (numbers looks suspicious though)0
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Fox News exit poll: Trump at 29% among indies, Kasich 18%, Bush 14%, Cruz 13%
Exit poll: Late deciders go to Kasich21 Trump21 Bush13 Rubio13
Shares values Cruz 23 Kasich 18 bush & Rubio 150 -
Bush on 13% you mean ;p ?TheWhiteRabbit said:FNC Exit Poll pic.twitter.com/GmD4B4sewg among late deciders (numbers looks suspicious though)
Trump did terribly with late breakers in Iowa don't forget so that looks pretty good for him.0 -
CNN's Wolf Blitzer just called Rubio a bunch of malfunctioning circuit boards.0
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More evidence that Amazon ain't interested in the business of flogging books and crap made in China long term. Somebody else can do that, while they have the cloud tech and the logistics tech.John_M said:Off topic. Amazon have just released a game engine (Lumberyard). Love this clause in the ToS:
57.10 Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materials must comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat.
However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.
I wonder how much they had to play Crytek to license the core CryEngine tech. Given their recent financial troubles, surprised they didn't just buy them.0 -
Wolf Blitzer - great name!Speedy said:CNN's Wolf Blitzer just called Rubio a bunch of malfunctioning circuit boards.
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Late deciders are around 40-45%, same number for independents.TheWhiteRabbit said:Fox News exit poll: Trump at 29% among indies, Kasich 18%, Bush 14%, Cruz 13%
Exit poll: Late deciders go to Kasich21 Trump21 Bush13 Rubio13
Shares values Cruz 23 Kasich 18 bush & Rubio 15
And Trump does better with republicans than independents according to other parts of the exit polls.
If Rubio does 2 times better with republicans than independents and Kasich the reverse, you know the math.0 -
FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.
Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.0 -
Very much not confirmed. Level of Sanders victory far from clear at the moment.NickPalmer said:FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.
Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.
(Also - I know plenty of 20 somethings who literally don't drink if they are driving that evening. Although some will still have alcohol in the blood the morning after the night before.)0 -
If I am arrested here in Japan for drink driving I will be sacked from my job. It's a pretty good incentive not to take any chances. The limit is also v.low, so there's no debate about just the one etc.NickPalmer said:FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.
Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.
You can also get a special taxi service that takes you and drives your car home too.0 -
This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.0
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Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary0
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Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.0 -
The stuff they are releases is everything but the bottom line numbers. I am seriously waiting for them to report "boxers or briefs" %'s before the real numbers.Pulpstar said:This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
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Why not just spit out the result!Pulpstar said:This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
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THIS IS A GUESS:
Trump 28
Kasich 15
Rubio 14
Bush 13
Cruz 12 ?!0 -
When I was younger I used to go a lot of puzzles, which had a big chart where you had to get {name, choice of sandwich; choice of venue} where Jane doesn't want the same sandwich as the person who is going to the park.Pulpstar said:This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
Reminds me of that.0 -
FPU poll?TheWhiteRabbit said:Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary
Oh.
Sanders 51+7=58%
So that's Hillary 42% then.0 -
NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)0
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Imagine they had done this on May 7th here.FrancisUrquhart said:
The stuff they are releases is everything but the bottom line numbers. I am seriously waiting for them to report "boxers or briefs" %'s before the real numbers.Pulpstar said:This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
"The number of predicted Liberal Democrat seats is a palindrome adding up to one more than the sum of the digits of the Conservative seats ..."0 -
So what's the timing again - CNN finally cough up at 12 our time, and actual results at 3?0
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Who is second in GOP race tho xDYossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
And that looks to be a stonking result for Bernie.0 -
Could be.YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
We know that Sanders is leading by 16 in one exit poll.
And Trump leading by 11 with the 40-45% of independents.0 -
edit0
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Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.0
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Three comments on her blog so far. One constructive, two "how very dare you"....watford30 said:
No doubt Team Remain will be trashing her reputation in the morning.Tykejohnno said:Dr Sarah Wollaston.
Why, as a Europhile, I'm heading towards the Brexit Door
http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-blog/why-as-a-europhile-im-heading-towards-the-brexit/16270 -
It's the new fashion, specially for PB - tantric polling.foxinsoxuk said:
Why not just spit out the result!Pulpstar said:This bloody exit poll is like a cryptic crossword and fucking sudoku rolled into 1.
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Well, maybe. Th FPU figures where 51/44; Sanders looks to have done slightly better than that.Speedy said:
FPU poll?TheWhiteRabbit said:Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary
Oh.
Sanders 51+7=58%
So that's Hillary 42% then.0 -
You can do that taxi thing here, Top Gear did it one year.dugarbandier said:
If I am arrested here in Japan for drink driving I will be sacked from my job. It's a pretty good incentive not to take any chances. The limit is also v.low, so there's no debate about just the one etc.NickPalmer said:FWIW (replying to SeanT), Finland does have a nice simple 0 alcohol limit for drivers (actually I think it's 0.01 or something to allow for people who inadvertently take some item that has a tiny element of alcohol). I have no idea whether it's popular, or has resulted in very low accident rates. But I do know lots of people who simply don't drink and drive, rather than fret about units and hours since last meal and all that stuff.
Back on topic, was that 51-48 report for Sanders confirmed? Sounds like a Clinton moral win if so.
You can also get a special taxi service that takes you and drives your car home too.0 -
Well Rubio is at most 5th with independents with the Fox exit poll.NickPalmer said:Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.
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Using UMass (Sanders by 16)TheWhiteRabbit said:
Well, maybe. Th FPU figures where 51/44; Sanders looks to have done slightly better than that.Speedy said:
FPU poll?TheWhiteRabbit said:Exit Poll compared to FPU poll (Sanders +7): Sanders improves by 13% in under age 30. Clinton improves by 5% in 65+. #NHPrimary
Oh.
Sanders 51+7=58%
So that's Hillary 42% then.
23/77 <30 => 16/83 (Sanders doing better)
52/40 >65 => 58/41 (Clinton doing better)
Since those are pretty equal =, Sanders by 16 must be approx the exit poll0 -
Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.0 -
Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.0 -
1.55 now, but it's not very liquidNickPalmer said:Interesting and good that there doesn't seem to be any insider trading - Betfair has Kasich without Trump at 1.64, hasn't changed much for ages.
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I think you and our furry friend @TheWhiterabbit are the best commentators !Speedy said:Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.0 -
What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?RodCrosby said:
Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.0 -
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
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Incidentally a put a few quid on Shadsy's vote share market for Sanders (principally <60%). Not sure about that one.0
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Hillary might pick up a few. I thought Bill Clinton, Madeleine Albright's comments were seriously sad today.Speedy said:
What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?RodCrosby said:
Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.0 -
"New Hampshire primary exit polls: It looks like a ~60:40 split towards Sanders. Probably a few %closer, but *WHEW*! "0
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Trump consolidates his national lead in a large poll
Morning Consult 3-7 Feb
Asked of 4,287 registered voters
Jeb Bush (R) 6%
Ben Carson (R) 9%
Chris Christie (R) 3%
Ted Cruz (R) 17%
Carly Fiorina (R) 2%
John Kasich (R) 2%
Marco Rubio (R) 15%
Donald Trump (R) 38%
Other 1%
Undecided 8%
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I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.Speedy said:Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.
American politics is weird.0 -
Reading the exit runes Bernie clearly a big win and seeing the ad spend and Hillary changing her campaign staff I'm think 20% blow out. Exits look good for Trump - I was worried about his turnout operation but the exits breakdowns show he's going to win 10% is a good result for him. Cruz looks good for 3rd with Kasich 2nd. Rubio needs to be at least 4th to carry on and that's between him and Bush. Christie wont feature but will stay in so he can be at the next debate and do over Rubio again - he really hates Rubio.0
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You can win two (possibly three?) Votes without winning a state due to Maine and Nebraska's allocations.Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.
However, throwing the election to the House is hardly the way for an independent to win the election either!0 -
Dunno, but it remains a possibility.Speedy said:
What are the chances that a billionaire from Wall Street running as an independent will win a single EV in Nebraska or Maine?RodCrosby said:
Maine and Nebraska potentially split their EVs...Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.0 -
Evening all.0
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If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%peter_from_putney said:
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
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I do hope Chris Christie stays in. He's amazing on a debate stage. And a clear lay at 65.YossariansChild said:Reading the exit runes Bernie clearly a big win and seeing the ad spend and Hillary changing her campaign staff I'm think 20% blow out. Exits look good for Trump - I was worried about his turnout operation but the exits breakdowns show he's going to win 10% is a good result for him. Cruz looks good for 3rd with Kasich 2nd. Rubio needs to be at least 4th to carry on and that's between him and Bush. Christie wont feature but will stay in so he can be at the next debate and do over Rubio again - he really hates Rubio.
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Were did you see it?TheWhiteRabbit said:"New Hampshire primary exit polls: It looks like a ~60:40 split towards Sanders. Probably a few %closer, but *WHEW*! "
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Someone 20, Trump 30TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%peter_from_putney said:
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
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We've already got Corbyn - and who knows who will replace Cameron.......foxinsoxuk said:
I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.Speedy said:Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.
American politics is weird.0 -
Bloomberg aint winning a single vote in either Nebraska or Maine. If it goes to the House whoever is the Republican candidate wins. GOP Representatives wont vote down a GOP Presidential candidate under any circs since they wont win a Primary re-election. This they know.david_herdson said:
You can win two (possibly three?) Votes without winning a state due to Maine and Nebraska's allocations.Speedy said:Some idiot on CNN has said that "Bloomberg although he wont win a single state will try to get delegates to throw the presidential election to the house of representatives".
It's the Electoral College and you get electoral votes only by winning states you idiot, it's not a primary.
However, throwing the election to the House is hardly the way for an independent to win the election either!0 -
I don't see it. But let's go halves and say 18/28 is a possibility.Pulpstar said:
Someone 20, Trump 30TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%peter_from_putney said:
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
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The main thing about New Hampshire is they like their mavericks and strong personalities, more than they like specific political philosophies. That was probably the reason for, for example, John McCain's success in NH in the past, rather than his "moderate" politics.foxinsoxuk said:
I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.Speedy said:Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.
American politics is weird.0 -
The latest ABT candidate isn't doing too well on those numbers.RodCrosby said:
John Kasich (R) 2%0 -
18-28 sounds very plausibleTheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't see it. But let's go halves and say 18/28 is a possibility.Pulpstar said:
Someone 20, Trump 30TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump only wins by 10, it's because he's got 26%peter_from_putney said:
If true, that sounds like good news for the second placed candidate with probably between 18% - 20% of the vote ..... but who will it be (as if we don't know)?YossariansChild said:NH predicts : Bernie by 20, Trump by 10 (MOE +/- 3)
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It's been 30 years since they picked the future candidate, for either partyDanny565 said:
The main thing about New Hampshire is they like their mavericks and strong personalities, more than they like specific political philosophies. That was probably the reason for, for example, John McCain's success in NH in the past, rather than his "moderate" politics.foxinsoxuk said:
I always though New Hampshire a fairly sensible sort of place, but it goes for Trump and Saunders.Speedy said:Finally a CNN political contributor said that Trump looks like he's going to win tonight.
And they said that Sanders looks like he's going to do very well tonight.
It's like torture to try to get the info out of them.
American politics is weird.0
